Appendix G
Projections of Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum
Production in Five Cases:
•
Reference
•
High Price
•
Low Price
•
High Economic Growth
•
Low Economic Growth
Appendix G
Projections of Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum
Production in Five Cases:
•
Reference
•
High Price
•
Low Price
•
High Economic Growth
•
Low Economic Growth
Table G1. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
199
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
36.1
35.8
37.4
40.9
44.4
46.7
49.3
1.3
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
-0.7
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.6
23.7
26.2
28.8
30.2
31.8
1.2
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.5
0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.2
3.4
3.8
4.0
3.1
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
0.9
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.2
4.3
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.1
10.7
10.5
11.9
12.6
13.1
13.7
0.8
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
0.3
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.8
1.7
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.6
4.0
2.6
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
0.1
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.1
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.7
2.2
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.7
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.5
1.2
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.9
4.1
0.8
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.5
0.9
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41.1
48.2
48.4
51.8
54.7
57.0
59.8
63.2
1.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20.0
21.8
21.4
21.5
21.7
21.5
22.0
22.3
0.1
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.7
15.1
15.2
16.2
17.0
17.2
17.7
18.0
0.7
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.7
8.2
8.2
9.4
9.9
10.2
10.2
9.8
0.7
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.8
4.4
4.6
5.0
5.3
2.2
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.8
-1.1
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
3.9
3.5
3.4
3.4
-2.1
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
5.8
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.4
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.1
26.5
27.0
30.3
33.1
35.5
37.8
40.9
1.8
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.0
15.9
16.8
17.5
18.9
1.8
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.2
11.4
12.1
12.6
13.5
1.4
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.2
4.5
4.7
5.1
3.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.9
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.9
7.1
7.4
7.6
7.7
0.7
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
0.4
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
0.7
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
-0.2
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
2.3
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.1
3.8
3.9
4.9
5.2
6.0
7.0
8.2
3.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
1.9
2.1
3.2
3.6
4.3
5.0
5.7
4.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.5
1.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66.3
84.3
84.2
89.2
95.7
101.3
106.5
112.5
1.2
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
42%
43%
44%
44%
44%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
24%
28%
28%
27%
27%
28%
28%
28%
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
200
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
35.3
35.1
36.5
39.8
43.0
45.3
47.7
1.2
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
-0.9
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.5
23.7
26.0
28.6
30.0
31.5
1.1
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.5
0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.2
3.4
3.8
4.0
3.1
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
0.9
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.0
2.5
2.7
3.0
4.0
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.0
10.6
10.5
11.9
12.6
13.1
13.7
0.9
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
0.3
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.8
1.7
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.6
4.0
2.6
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
0.1
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.1
5.7
5.9
6.2
6.7
2.2
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.7
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.5
1.2
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.8
2.9
0.2
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.3
0.1
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40.5
46.5
46.5
48.2
49.6
50.9
52.5
55.1
0.7
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.5
20.3
19.8
18.8
17.7
16.8
16.4
16.2
-0.9
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.3
13.7
13.6
13.6
13.2
12.6
12.3
12.1
-0.5
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.6
7.9
7.8
8.7
8.9
8.9
8.6
8.2
0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.1
-2.3
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.8
-1.2
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
3.8
3.4
3.3
3.3
-2.3
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
-5.1
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.6
-2.4
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
-3.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.6
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.4
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.4
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Table G2. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
201
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.0
26.2
26.7
29.4
31.9
34.1
36.1
38.9
1.6
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.0
15.9
16.8
17.5
18.9
1.8
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.2
11.4
12.1
12.6
13.5
1.4
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.2
4.5
4.7
5.1
3.6
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
3.5
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.9
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.6
4.0
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
2.5
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1.2
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-1.0
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.8
7.1
7.1
7.0
0.3
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.8
0.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.6
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.0
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.4
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.5
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
-0.2
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.4
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
-1.5
Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
-0.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.3
3.6
4.0
2.0
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
2.8
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
3.7
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.4
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
4.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
2.7
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.6
3.7
4.6
4.8
5.4
6.3
7.3
2.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
1.8
1.9
2.9
3.2
3.7
4.3
5.0
4.2
Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
-2.7
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.4
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
4.8
Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.8
1.2
7.1
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65.7
81.9
81.6
84.8
89.4
93.9
97.8
102.9
0.9
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
44%
46%
46%
46%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
25%
29%
29%
28%
29%
30%
31%
31%
Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains.
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G3. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
202
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.6
3.1
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
3.0
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
—
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.7
1.9
3.6
5.1
6.1
7.3
8.1
6.4
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.5
1.6
2.7
3.9
4.7
5.5
6.1
5.9
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.4
7.7
Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.9
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.2
5.5
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
25.0
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.7
2.0
8.7
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
5.7
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
6.7
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.7
6.7
Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.9
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.2
5.5
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
3.2
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
8.2
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.7
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
2.5
2.6
4.5
6.2
7.4
8.7
9.7
5.6
Selected Country Highlights
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
5.4
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
2.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.6
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
8.1
Coal-to-Liquids
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
—
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
3.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G4. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
203
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
36.1
35.8
37.3
35.4
35.0
34.9
35.5
-0.1
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
-1.8
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.6
23.7
22.4
22.3
22.0
22.1
-0.3
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.9
-1.5
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
1.3
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
-0.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.7
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.1
10.7
10.5
10.2
9.7
9.4
9.4
-0.7
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
-1.0
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.9
4.1
0.2
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.8
1.2
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.2
-1.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.4
4.5
0.5
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
-0.3
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.9
4.1
0.8
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
-1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.8
1.1
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41.1
48.2
48.4
51.4
54.3
56.7
60.3
63.7
1.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20.0
21.8
21.4
21.5
22.4
23.8
25.7
27.6
1.0
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.7
15.1
15.2
16.2
17.9
19.9
21.8
23.8
1.8
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.7
8.2
8.2
9.2
9.7
10.3
10.9
11.5
1.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.9
5.6
7.3
8.6
9.8
4.7
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.5
-1.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
3.8
3.2
3.1
3.0
-2.7
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
8.4
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.1
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.1
26.5
26.9
29.9
31.9
32.9
34.7
36.1
1.3
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.2
15.1
14.9
15.2
15.5
1.0
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.4
10.8
10.7
10.9
11.0
0.6
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.2
2.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.2
0.4
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
0.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
2.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
0.3
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
-0.9
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.3
2.1
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.1
3.8
3.9
5.0
5.2
5.9
6.9
7.8
2.9
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
1.9
2.1
3.2
3.6
4.3
5.0
5.5
4.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.3
0.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66.3
84.3
84.2
88.7
89.7
91.7
95.2
99.3
0.7
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
42%
39%
38%
37%
36%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
24%
28%
28%
27%
25%
24%
23%
22%
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
204
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
35.3
35.1
36.3
34.0
33.0
32.5
32.8
-0.3
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
-2.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.5
23.6
22.3
22.0
21.6
21.7
-0.4
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.9
-1.5
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
1.3
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.2
-0.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.4
3.1
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.0
10.6
10.4
10.2
9.7
9.4
9.4
-0.6
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
-1.0
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.9
4.1
0.2
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.8
1.2
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.2
-1.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.0
4.8
4.4
4.3
4.4
0.5
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.4
-0.4
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.1
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
-1.3
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
-1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
-1.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40.5
46.5
46.5
48.5
47.3
46.3
47.1
47.5
0.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.5
20.3
19.8
18.7
17.0
16.0
15.9
15.6
-1.1
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.3
13.7
13.6
13.5
12.7
12.3
12.3
12.1
-0.5
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.6
7.9
7.8
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.9
8.6
0.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.0
-2.7
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
-1.8
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
-3.0
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
-5.9
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
-3.0
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
-3.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.5
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-0.1
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Table G5. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
205
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.0
26.2
26.7
29.8
30.2
30.3
31.2
31.9
0.8
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.2
15.0
14.9
15.2
15.5
1.0
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.4
10.8
10.7
10.9
11.0
0.6
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.2
2.8
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.8
2.6
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.9
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.2
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.7
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1.7
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.5
6.3
6.2
5.8
-0.5
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.0
-0.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.5
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
-0.6
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.0
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.4
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
-0.9
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
-0.4
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.0
Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
1.2
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
1.9
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
2.8
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
-0.3
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.2
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.9
Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
—
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
3.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
1.8
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.6
3.7
4.7
4.5
4.8
5.4
6.0
2.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
1.8
1.9
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.0
3.4
Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
-3.3
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-3.2
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
4.1
Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1.0
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
6.2
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65.7
81.9
81.6
84.9
81.3
79.4
79.7
80.3
-0.1
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
42%
42%
41%
41%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
25%
29%
29%
28%
27%
28%
27%
27%
Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains.
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G6. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels per Day)
Appendix G
206
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.4
2.0
2.4
2.7
5.2
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.8
2.1
5.2
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
—
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.7
1.9
2.9
7.0
10.4
13.2
16.3
9.4
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.5
1.6
2.7
5.3
7.8
9.8
12.0
8.8
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.4
1.5
8.0
Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
2.0
4.1
6.1
7.5
8.7
8.7
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
1.2
32.9
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.7
2.6
3.4
4.2
12.0
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.7
1.2
1.8
2.3
2.7
8.9
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
1.0
1.4
9.9
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.7
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.3
2.1
3.0
3.7
4.2
8.6
Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
2.0
4.1
6.1
7.5
8.7
8.7
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.9
2.3
5.4
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.8
1.5
2.7
12.8
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.7
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
13.6
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
2.5
2.6
3.8
8.4
12.3
15.6
19.0
8.5
Selected Country Highlights
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.5
8.5
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
5.7
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
6.7
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.2
7.9
Coal-to-Liquids
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
—
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
7.0
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
1.2
—
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G7. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
207
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
36.1
35.8
38.4
45.3
51.5
55.8
60.0
2.1
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.0
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.6
24.4
29.1
33.7
36.4
39.0
2.0
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.5
1.0
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.4
4.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.1
1.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.4
3.1
3.5
3.9
5.1
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.1
10.7
10.8
13.3
14.8
15.8
16.8
1.7
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.8
1.2
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.1
2.5
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.8
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.9
3.5
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.9
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.2
6.3
6.9
7.5
8.2
3.0
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.6
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.3
2.0
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.3
3.9
4.3
4.6
1.2
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.7
1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.7
3.3
3.7
3.9
1.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41.1
48.2
48.4
51.3
53.9
56.2
58.8
62.0
1.0
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20.0
21.8
21.4
21.4
20.6
19.9
19.7
19.4
-0.5
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.7
15.1
15.2
16.1
15.8
15.5
15.2
14.8
-0.1
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.7
8.2
8.2
9.4
10.1
10.2
9.8
9.2
0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.6
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
-0.7
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.7
3.0
-0.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.7
-1.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.1
26.5
26.9
29.9
33.3
36.2
39.1
42.6
1.9
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.2
16.3
17.5
18.7
20.3
2.2
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.4
11.7
12.6
13.5
14.6
1.7
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.3
4.7
5.0
5.5
3.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.7
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.4
7.2
7.6
7.8
7.8
0.8
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.7
3.8
3.5
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
0.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.4
0.9
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
0.1
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.5
2.3
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.1
3.8
3.9
4.9
5.1
5.9
6.9
8.2
3.1
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
1.9
2.1
3.2
3.4
4.1
4.8
5.6
4.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.6
1.4
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66.3
84.3
84.2
89.7
99.2
107.7
114.6
122.0
1.5
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
46%
48%
49%
49%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
24%
28%
28%
27%
29%
31%
32%
32%
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
208
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
35.3
35.1
37.4
44.3
50.3
54.5
58.6
2.0
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
-0.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.5
24.3
29.0
33.5
36.1
38.8
2.0
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.5
1.0
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.4
4.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.1
1.7
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.3
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.9
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.0
10.6
10.7
13.3
14.8
15.8
16.8
1.7
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.8
1.2
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.1
2.5
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.8
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.9
3.5
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.9
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.2
6.3
6.9
7.5
8.2
3.0
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.6
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.7
3.4
3.6
3.9
4.3
2.0
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.4
2.9
3.3
3.5
1.0
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.7
1.3
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.9
2.3
2.7
2.8
1.0
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40.5
46.5
46.5
48.9
51.0
53.0
55.2
58.4
0.9
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.5
20.3
19.8
19.0
18.2
17.3
16.8
16.5
-0.8
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.3
13.7
13.6
13.7
13.5
12.9
12.3
11.9
-0.5
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.6
7.9
7.8
8.7
9.1
9.1
8.4
7.7
-0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
-2.0
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.7
3.0
-0.9
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.6
-1.9
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
-4.8
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
-2.1
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
-2.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Table G8. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Continued)
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
209
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.0
26.2
26.7
29.9
32.7
35.6
38.5
41.9
1.9
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.2
16.3
17.5
18.7
20.3
2.2
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.4
11.7
12.6
13.5
14.6
1.7
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.3
4.7
5.0
5.5
3.9
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
3.8
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.9
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.9
4.3
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.8
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1.0
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.6
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
7.0
7.4
7.6
7.6
0.6
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.1
0.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.9
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.3
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.2
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
0.1
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
-1.2
Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.5
3.9
4.3
2.3
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
3.1
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
4.0
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.8
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
1.0
4.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
3.0
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.6
3.7
4.7
4.9
5.6
6.7
7.9
3.2
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
1.8
1.9
2.9
3.3
3.9
4.6
5.4
4.6
Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
-2.4
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.1
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
5.1
Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.8
1.2
7.5
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65.7
81.9
81.6
86.3
95.2
103.3
109.8
117.1
1.4
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
46%
49%
50%
50%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
25%
29%
29%
28%
30%
32%
33%
33%
Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains.
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G9. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Price Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
210
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.4
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
2.4
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.7
1.9
2.4
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.0
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.5
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.9
2.9
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.3
7.4
Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.0
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.7
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
4.0
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.1
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
2.1
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.7
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.7
4.8
Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.0
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
2.5
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
3.2
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.7
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
2.5
2.6
3.4
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.0
2.9
Selected Country Highlights
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.8
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-1.8
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
8.1
Coal-to-Liquids
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-4.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.6
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G10. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
211
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
36.1
35.8
38.2
42.2
46.8
50.8
55.0
1.7
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
-0.3
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.6
24.2
26.8
30.1
32.5
35.0
1.5
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.9
0.6
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
3.5
4.0
4.4
3.5
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.6
1.2
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.3
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.9
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.1
10.7
10.8
12.3
13.3
14.0
15.0
1.2
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
0.7
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.7
6.3
2.0
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.4
3.0
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
0.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.1
5.8
6.2
6.7
7.4
2.6
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.4
4.1
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.9
1.6
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.5
4.2
4.9
5.3
1.8
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.9
2.8
2.6
3.0
3.7
4.3
4.6
1.9
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41.1
48.2
48.4
51.9
57.0
60.6
64.8
70.0
1.5
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20.0
21.8
21.4
21.7
22.5
22.4
22.8
23.2
0.2
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.7
15.1
15.2
16.4
17.5
17.8
18.0
18.2
0.7
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.7
8.2
8.2
9.4
10.1
10.2
9.8
9.2
0.5
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.9
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.7
2.5
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.9
3.3
-0.6
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.6
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
-1.6
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
6.2
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
1.0
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.1
26.5
26.9
30.2
34.5
38.2
42.0
46.8
2.3
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.3
16.6
18.1
19.5
21.7
2.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.5
11.9
13.0
14.1
15.6
2.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.9
4.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
7.5
8.0
8.5
8.8
1.2
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.7
3.8
3.6
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
0.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.5
2.3
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.6
1.3
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
0.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.4
4.0
4.5
5.1
2.8
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.1
3.8
3.9
5.0
5.5
6.5
7.8
9.3
3.7
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
1.9
2.1
3.3
3.7
4.6
5.5
6.5
4.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.3
2.9
1.8
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66.3
84.3
84.2
90.1
99.2
107.4
115.6
125.0
1.6
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
42%
43%
44%
44%
44%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
24%
28%
28%
27%
27%
28%
28%
28%
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G11. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
212
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
35.3
35.1
37.2
40.6
44.8
48.3
52.3
1.6
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
-0.6
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.5
24.1
26.6
29.8
32.1
34.6
1.5
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.5
4.9
0.6
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
3.5
4.0
4.4
3.5
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.6
1.2
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.6
2.9
3.3
4.4
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.0
10.6
10.7
12.3
13.3
14.0
15.0
1.2
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4
0.7
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.7
6.3
2.0
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.4
3.0
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
0.4
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.2
5.8
6.1
6.6
7.3
2.5
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.4
4.1
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.8
1.5
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.1
0.6
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.5
0.5
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40.5
46.5
46.5
49.1
51.8
54.3
57.3
61.7
1.1
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.5
20.3
19.8
19.1
18.4
17.6
17.1
17.0
-0.7
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.3
13.7
13.6
13.7
13.6
13.1
12.5
12.2
-0.5
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.6
7.9
7.8
8.7
9.1
9.1
8.4
7.7
-0.1
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
-1.8
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.8
3.2
-0.7
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
4.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
-1.7
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
-4.6
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.9
-1.9
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
-2.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.8
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
1.0
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Table G11. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030 (Continued)
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
213
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.0
26.2
26.7
30.1
33.3
36.7
40.2
44.7
2.2
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.3
16.6
18.1
19.5
21.7
2.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.5
11.9
13.0
14.1
15.6
2.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.9
4.2
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
4.1
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.9
2.7
3.1
3.5
4.1
4.6
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
3.1
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.7
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.6
6.8
7.1
7.6
7.9
8.1
0.8
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.3
0.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.6
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.1
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.6
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
1.9
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.7
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
0.4
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.9
Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.6
2.6
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
3.4
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.7
4.3
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.0
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
4.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
3.2
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.6
3.7
4.7
5.0
5.8
7.0
8.4
3.5
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
1.8
1.9
3.0
3.3
4.0
4.8
5.7
4.8
Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
-2.2
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
-1.8
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
5.4
Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.3
7.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65.7
81.9
81.6
86.3
92.4
99.1
105.7
114.0
1.3
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
44%
45%
46%
46%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
25%
29%
29%
28%
29%
30%
30%
30%
Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains.
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G12. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, High Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
214
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.7
5.2
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.1
5.2
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
—
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.7
1.9
2.8
5.2
6.3
7.5
8.3
6.5
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.5
1.6
2.7
4.0
4.8
5.7
6.2
5.9
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.4
1.4
7.7
Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.9
2.9
3.5
4.0
4.4
5.8
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
18.0
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
9.0
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
6.0
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.7
7.0
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.3
1.8
2.2
2.6
2.8
6.9
Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.9
2.9
3.5
4.0
4.4
5.8
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
5.3
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.8
7.6
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
2.5
2.6
3.8
6.8
8.3
9.9
11.0
6.2
Selected Country Highlights
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.7
5.6
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
2.9
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.9
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.2
8.1
Coal-to-Liquids
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
—
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
4.2
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G13. World Total Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
215
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
36.1
35.8
37.8
40.6
43.1
44.1
45.0
0.9
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
-1.1
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.6
24.0
25.9
27.9
28.5
29.0
0.8
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
-0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
3.3
3.6
3.7
2.7
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
0.5
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.0
4.1
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.1
10.7
10.6
11.6
12.0
12.1
12.4
0.4
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
0.0
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.3
1.3
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.7
2.3
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
-0.3
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.1
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.1
1.8
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.3
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
0.8
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.7
3.8
0.4
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.2
0.5
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
41.1
48.2
48.4
50.9
51.7
52.6
54.1
56.3
0.6
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20.0
21.8
21.4
21.1
19.7
19.2
19.8
20.7
-0.2
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.7
15.1
15.2
15.9
15.1
15.2
15.9
16.8
0.4
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.7
8.2
8.2
9.2
9.7
10.3
10.9
11.5
1.3
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.6
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
-0.5
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
-1.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
3.8
3.3
3.1
3.1
-2.6
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.4
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.1
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.1
26.5
26.9
29.7
32.0
33.3
34.3
35.6
1.2
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.1
15.7
16.1
16.3
16.9
1.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.3
11.3
11.6
11.8
12.1
1.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
3.2
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.6
0.1
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.7
3.8
3.5
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
-0.3
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
0.3
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
-0.6
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.8
1.6
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.1
3.8
3.9
4.9
4.9
5.4
6.1
6.9
2.4
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
1.9
2.1
3.2
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.7
3.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.2
0.7
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66.3
84.3
84.2
88.7
92.3
95.6
98.3
101.3
0.7
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
44%
45%
45%
44%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
24%
28%
28%
27%
28%
29%
29%
29%
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G14. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
216
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.2
35.3
35.1
36.9
39.6
41.9
42.8
43.6
0.8
Asia (Indonesia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.5
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
-1.2
Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.1
23.8
23.5
23.9
25.7
27.7
28.3
28.8
0.8
Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
-0.2
Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
3.3
3.6
3.7
2.7
Kuwait . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
0.5
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.8
Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7.0
11.0
10.6
10.6
11.6
12.0
12.1
12.4
0.5
United Arab Emirates . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
0.0
North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
3.8
3.9
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.3
1.3
Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.7
2.3
Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
-0.3
West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
3.9
3.9
5.1
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.1
1.8
Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.3
1.4
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.3
Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
0.8
South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
2.6
-0.1
Ecuador . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.1
2.1
-0.2
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40.5
46.5
46.5
48.4
48.8
49.2
49.9
50.9
0.4
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.5
20.3
19.8
18.7
17.3
16.5
16.3
16.1
-0.9
OECD North America . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.3
13.7
13.6
13.5
12.8
12.5
12.5
12.3
-0.4
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.6
7.9
7.8
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.9
8.6
0.4
Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.1
-2.5
Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
3.8
3.7
3.0
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
-1.5
OECD Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5
5.9
5.5
4.5
3.8
3.2
3.1
3.0
-2.6
Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
-5.6
Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
3.0
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
-2.8
United Kngdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.8
-3.5
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.0
OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.3
Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.9
South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.1
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Table G14. World Conventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030 (Continued)
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquids Production Projections
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
217
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.0
26.2
26.7
29.7
31.5
32.8
33.6
34.8
1.1
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia . . . . .
11.6
11.9
12.3
14.1
15.7
16.1
16.3
16.9
1.4
Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1
9.5
9.7
10.3
11.3
11.6
11.8
12.1
1.0
Caspian Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.1
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
3.2
Azerbaijan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
3.0
Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.9
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.6
Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
2.0
Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1.5
Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.4
Non-OECD Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.3
-0.1
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.3
-0.5
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
Brunei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
-0.3
Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.2
Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-1.0
Middle East (Non-OPEC) . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
-0.6
Oman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.0
Syria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.8
Yemen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.6
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.6
1.6
Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.3
Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
3.2
Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.0
Equatorial Guniea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.1
Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.5
Sao Tome and Principe. . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
—
Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
3.4
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.2
Central and South America . . . . . . . .
2.0
3.6
3.7
4.6
4.7
5.2
5.8
6.6
2.4
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.7
1.8
1.9
2.9
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.4
3.7
Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
-3.0
Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-2.8
Peru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
4.4
Trinidad and Tobago . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.9
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
1.0
6.6
Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65.7
81.9
81.6
85.3
88.3
91.1
92.8
94.5
0.6
OPEC Share of World Production . . . . . . .
38%
43%
43%
43%
45%
46%
46%
46%
Persian Gulf Share of World Production . .
25%
29%
29%
28%
29%
30%
30%
30%
Note: Conventional liquids include crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains.
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).
Table G15. World Unconventional Liquids Production by Region and Country, Low Economic Growth Case,
1990-2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Appendix G
218
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008
Region/Country
History (Estimates)
Projections
Average Annual
Percent Change,
2005-2030
1990
2005
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
OPEC
a
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.5
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Venezuela) . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
2.5
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Gas-to-Liquids (primarily Qatar) . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
1.7
1.9
2.4
2.9
3.3
4.2
5.4
4.7
OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
1.5
1.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.5
4.6
4.7
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.2
7.2
Oil Sands/Bitumen (Canada) . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
Ultra-Heavy Oil (Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
1.2
32.7
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Non-OECD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.8
4.8
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
1.9
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
2.9
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
World
Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.8
4.9
Oil Sands/Bitumen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
Ultra-Heavy Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
2.6
Coal-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.6
1.5
10.2
Gas-to-Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
—
Shale Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
13.1
World Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.6
2.5
2.6
3.4
3.9
4.5
5.5
6.8
4.2
Selected Country Highlights
Biofuels
Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
1.6
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1.1
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.2
7.9
Coal-to-Liquids
Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
—
Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.6
India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
1.2
—
Gas-to-Liquids
Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
—
South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
—
a
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-13).
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Energy Markets and End Use. Projections: EIA, Generate
World Oil Balance Model (2008).