At the mini EU Summit of June 29 Europe’s Heads of State and Government finally agreed upon Romano Prodi’s successor to the Commission Presidency, José Manuel Durão Barroso, the current Portuguese Prime Minister. Chosen for a fortuitous combination of qualities that enable him to trod the paper-thin line between the EU’s two main driving forces: the UK and the emerging Franco-German entente. This makes Barroso the undisputed candidate of compromise and conciliation. 

Promoting both closer European integration and a British sense of transatlantic cooperation (and a francophone to boot), the ‘candidate wanted by none and chosen by all’ leaves many asking for more. The full extent of the compromise will not be revealed until later, when unsatisfied Leaders demand important posts in the next Commission. Gerhard Schröder has already made clear that he will seek to fill the post of Super-Commissioner for economic and industrial affairs with one of his own, while France is likely to claim the competition or monetary portfolios.

Nevertheless, the Iberian Peninsula will be well represented in the renovated EU.  With a Portuguese occupying the top post in the Commission, and Javier Solana almost certainly being the first to hold the position of EU Minister of Foreign Affairs, the peninsular politicians will serve as the face of the Union in the years to come.

It remains to be seen whether Barroso will be up to the many challenges already facing him, not the least of which is the inheritance of a Commission eroded by ten years of weak leadership. His experience as Head of Government, his young age and his fluency in English and French will perhaps help him face two of these challenges: protecting the Commission’s independence from the Member States, and selling Europe to an increasingly disillusioned public. This will very much depend, in our view, on his ability to formulate and communicate a clear vision for the EU. His first test will be the European Parliament debate and vote on his nomination on July 22. Following this, the second trial will determine his ability to put together a strong and cohesive team of Commissioners.

The process of nominating Durão Barroso for the job of President of the Commission has not been the most flattering one. The truth is that European leaders once again failed to put aside their national divergences and concentrate on what truly matters: choosing the right man for the right job. Barroso is not only the 11th hour candidate but also the second-best possible compromise.

The list of requisites imposed by Heads of State was endless. The Commission President had to: come from a small, and ideally southern, country; be part of the Euro zone; have the right political colour to be accepted by the European Parliament, i.e. Christian Democrat; have a low political profile in order not to have too much influence in Brussels; and finally, in order to please Mr. Chirac, be fluent in French!

Two initially viable candidates, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten failed to gain the support of both the UK and the Franco-German axis. Blair vetoed Verhofstadt’s candidacy while Patten’s unabashed support for UK positions made him unacceptable to Chirac and Schroeder. After Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean Claude Juncker announced he would prefer to stay in national politics, Durão Barroso rose as the only acceptable leftover option.

A politician of low profile, Durão Barroso has long been part of the Portuguese political landscape. Having started his political life as a communist activist fighting against the fascist dictatorship, Durão Barroso was known as an active dissident student while taking his law degree. He left the party in 1977 to concentrate on his studies. This extreme turnaround in political persuasion leaves him vulnerable to the inevitable accusation that he is not a true political ideologue.

After studying abroad in Switzerland and Washington, Barroso returned to Portugal as a university professor developing ties with the most conservative sector of the PSD political party (Christian Democrats). In 1985 at age 29, Barroso was nominated Secretary of State for Home Affairs. He was then appointed Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation where he played a pivotal role on the peace deal in Angola, which ended its long lasting civil war. In 1992, when Joao de Deus Pinheiro abandoned his post of Minister of Foreign Affairs to join the Commission, Durão Barroso took his place.

Since he was appointed President of the party in 1999, the PSD has suffered three electoral defeats: in the 1999 European elections, in the national elections the same year and in the Presidential elections. In 2002, taking advantage of the early elections called for after the resignation of the Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Guterres, Durão Barroso won the election (but with no majority in the Parliament).

Even in his domestic political career, Barroso’s rise to political prominence was due less to overwhelming popular support than to favourable political circumstances.

While in a difficult economic situation, Portugal needed a majority Government in order to pass much needed but unpopular economic reforms. At this point, Barroso developed a right wing coalition between the PSD (Centre Right) and the PP (Popular Party, right of PSD). The largely criticised deal included giving three ministries to the PP, including one to the radical and anti-EU PP leader Paulo Portas. This shows that Barroso will not shy away from unpopular moves, including building loose or controversial coalitions, in order to advance his agenda.

With little charisma but ample diplomatic talent, the expectations surrounding Barroso’s presidency are building fast. Coming from a small southern country, he is well placed to fight for a balance between big and small Member States, becoming the “President of conciliation”. UK, Germany and France are already putting pressure on Barroso to allocate their man to the most influential economic, industrial and competition posts in the future College of Commissioners. Barroso will have to show his colours from the beginning and prove that he will not be led around by Europe’s major players.

The Commission President’s selection process drew criticism from the French press for revealing the weakness of the Union (that seeks the least offensive candidate rather than the most effective). Nevertheless, the media has expressed hope that the new Commission President may emerge as the man who can draw together London, Paris and Berlin: while a committed Europeanist and a francophone, he also brings strong cultural (as well as some ideological) ties to the UK.

In Germany, public opinion regards the President-to-be as a “weak President”, lacking the assertiveness needed to challenge Jacques Chirac or Gerhard Schroeder.

Not surprisingly, the EPP leaders consider Barroso as the perfect candidate, with all the qualities that a leader in his future position needs for a good performance. The Socialists, on the other hand, worry about the lack of demonstrated capacity for the job. The Greens’ apprehensiveness is based on the pro-American stand that Barroso has taken since the war in Iraq. They are sceptical as to his ability “to defend a social and Green Europe”.

Chris Patten already described the post as "about the most difficult job in the western world". The next President’s agenda confirms it. Reaching agreement on the new EU Financial Perspectives 2007-2013 (with the UK, Germany and France pushing for big cuts); reforming the Stability Pact (a sensitive issue to Barroso’s home country); conducting Turkey’s final pre-accession negotiations; and ensuring the European Constitution’s ratification by 25 Member States are just some of the tasks lying ahead. Barroso already said that he would not be a puppet on European leaders’ hands.

Even though Portuguese President Jorge Sampaio has congratulated Durão Barroso for accepting the honour bestowed on Portugal, the internal situation created by the “empty chair” is giving the President and the Government in power a huge headache.

Santana Lopes, Vice-President of the Christian Democrats and Mayor of Lisbon, has been the most mentioned as the politician to take over the position. A controversial politician with too strong nationalistic instincts to advance European policies (and a former president of a football club), Santana Lopes leaves too many doubts regarding his competence. The Portuguese ‘iron lady,’ Manuela Ferreira Leite, number two in the current Government and famous for being the toughest Finance Minister Portugal has seen in years, considers that the appointment of Santana Lopes without a Christian Democrat assembly would be a “Coup d’Etat” inside PSD. Reassuringly, should the assembly take place, Ferreira Leite’s ascension to Prime Minister is a likely outcome.

The Socialist opposition is naturally asking for early elections, knowing that the polls predict a smashing victory for the party. It will be up to the President, Socialist by affiliation, to decide how to resolve Portugal’s turbulent political situation.

Biography of José Manuel Durão Barroso

Born in Lisbon on the 23rd March 1956.

Married. Three children.

Honours in Law by the Law School (1978), Lisbon University ("Licenciatura", 5 years graduate studies).

Master in Political Science with honours (1981) by the Department of Political Science of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Geneva University, Switzerland.

Diploma with honours (1982) in European Studies by the European University Institute, Geneva University.

Lecturer at the Law School of the Lisbon University, Lecturer at the Political Science Department of the Geneva University and "Visiting Researcher" at Georgetown University (Washington D.C.).

Head of the Department of International Relations, Universidade Lusíada, Lisbon (1995-1999).

Visiting Professor at Georgetown University (Washington D.C.), Department of Government, School for Foreign Service, from 1996 to 1998.

Guest Lecturer of Political Science, Law School, Lisbon University.

Professor of International Relations, Universidade Lusíada, Lisbon.

Editor of the Revista de Ciência Política.

Published  two  books (Sistema de Governo e Sistema Partidário, co-author, Lisbon, 1980 and Le système politique portugais face à l'intégration européenne, Lausanne 1983)  and several articles on Political Science and International Relations on different Portuguese and international academic journals, collective books and encyclopaedia (among them: Análise Social, Il Politico, Pólis - Enciclopédia Verbo da Sociedade e do Estado, Dictionnaire International du Fédéralisme).

Secretary of State of Home Affairs (1985-1987).

Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation (1987-1992).

Minister of Foreign Affairs (November 1992 until October 1995).

Prime Minister since April 6th 2002.

Member of Parliament, Lisbon constituency in l985 and Viseu constituency in July l987 and October l991. Member of Parliament, Lisbon constituency in October 1995, October 1999 and March 2002.
Chairman of the Commission for Foreign Affairs of the Portuguese Parliament from November 1995 to November 1996.

Member of the National Council of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Chairman of its Department for International Relations.

Elected President of PSD on the XXII Congress, May 1999. Re-elected President of PSD on the XXIII Congress, February 2000 and on the XXIV Congress, July 2002.

Elected President of Municipal Assembly of Valpaços, January 2002.

Elected Vice-President of EPP (European People's Party), July 1999.

Co-Chairman of Pan-European Forum (the EPP/EDU body for relations with the Republics of the former Soviet Union), January 2001.

Elected Vice-President of CDI (Christian/Center Democratic International), Mexico City, November 2001.

Published Política de Cooperação, Lisbon, 1990, A Política Externa Portuguesa 1992-1993, Lisbon, 1994, A Política Externa Portuguesa 1994-1995, Lisbon, 1995, Uma Certa Ideia de Europa, Lisbon, 1999, Uma Ideia para Portugal, Lisbon, 2000, and Mudar de Modelo, Lisbon, 2002.

Leader of International IDEA (Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance) mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina, September 1996.

Advisor of UN to the Project for Peace Process in Africa (Tanzania), October 1997.

Member of the Secretary-General Resource Group on the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1998.

Honorary Board of the International Raoul Wallenberg Foundation.

Among several other prizes and honours was elected "Personality of the year" in l990 by the Foreign Press Association.

Holds decorations from Portugal, Spain, Brazil, Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Morocco, Japan, Finland, Côte d'Ivoire, Tunisia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Malta, Peru, Hungary.