Tropical Cyclone Report 

Hurricane Katrina 

23-30 August 2005 

 

Richard D. Knabb, Jamie R. Rhome, and Daniel P. Brown 

National Hurricane Center 

20 December 2005 

 

Updated 10 August 2006 for tropical wave history, storm surge, 

tornadoes, surface observations, fatalities, and damage cost estimates 

 
 

Katrina was an extraordinarily powerful and deadly hurricane that carved a wide swath of 

catastrophic damage and inflicted large loss of life.  It was the costliest and one of the five 
deadliest hurricanes to ever strike the United States.  Katrina first caused fatalities and damage in 
southern Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.  After 
reaching Category 5 intensity over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weakened to Category 3 
before making landfall on the northern Gulf coast.  Even so, the damage and loss of life inflicted 
by this massive hurricane in Louisiana and Mississippi were staggering, with significant effects 
extending into the Florida panhandle, Georgia, and Alabama.  Considering the scope of its 
impacts, Katrina was one of the most devastating natural disasters in United States history. 
 
 
a.

 

Synoptic History 

 

The complex genesis of Katrina involved the interaction of a tropical wave, the middle 

tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper tropospheric trough.  This 
trough, located over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas, produced strong westerly shear 
across Tropical Depression Ten, causing it to degenerate on 14 August approximately 825 n mi 
east of Barbados.   The low-level circulation gradually weakened while continuing westward, 
and it eventually dissipated on 21 August in the vicinity of Cuba.  Meanwhile, a middle 
tropospheric circulation originating from Tropical Depression Ten lagged behind and passed 
north of the Leeward Islands on 18-19 August.  A tropical wave, which departed the west coast 
of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle 
tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico.  This activity continued to move slowly 
northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and 
Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August.  Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical 
Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 
UTC that day.  The upper tropospheric trough weakened as it moved westward toward Florida, 
and the shear relaxed enough to allow the system to develop into a tropical depression by 1800 
UTC 23 August over the southeastern Bahamas about 175 n mi southeast of Nassau.  The 
depression was designated Tropical Depression Twelve rather than “Ten” because a separate 
tropical wave appeared to be partially responsible for the cyclogenesis, and, more importantly, 
the low-level circulation of Tropical Depression Ten was clearly not involved. 

 

 

1

The “best track” of the path of the center of Katrina is displayed in Fig. 1, with the wind 

and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively.  The best track positions and 
intensities are listed in Table 1.  The depression continued to become organized over the central 
Bahamas during the evening of 23 August.  Deep convection increased overnight in the eastern 
semicircle of the cyclone and formed a well-defined band that began to wrap around the north 
side of the circulation center early on the morning of 24 August.  Based on aircraft 
reconnaissance flight-level wind data, the cyclone became Katrina, the 11th tropical storm of the 
2005 Atlantic hurricane season, at 1200 UTC 24 August when it was centered over the central 
Bahamas about 65 n mi east-southeast of Nassau.  Initially the storm moved northwestward 
within a weakness in the lower tropospheric subtropical ridge.  However, as the storm developed 
an inner core and evolved into a deeper cyclone on 24 August, it came under the influence of a 
strengthening middle to upper tropospheric ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern 
United States.  This ridge turned Katrina westward on 25 August toward southern Florida.  
Katrina generated an intense burst of deep convection over the low-level center during the 
afternoon of 25 August while positioned over the northwestern Bahamas.  Further strengthening 
ensued, and Katrina is estimated to have reached hurricane status near 2100 UTC 25 August, less 
than two hours before its center made landfall on the southeastern coast of Florida. 

 
The strengthening ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern United States 

produced northeasterly middle- to upper-level tropospheric flow that forced Katrina to turn west-
southwestward as it neared southern Florida.  Katrina made its first landfall in the United States 
as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, with maximum sustained 
winds of 70 knots, near the border of Miami-Dade County and Broward County at approximately 
2230 UTC 25 August.  While not discernible in conventional satellite imagery, a well-defined 
eye became evident on the Miami National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D Doppler radar 
just prior to landfall on the southeastern Florida coast.  In fact, the eye feature actually became 
better defined while Katrina moved inland, and it remained intact during its entire track across 
the peninsula.  The convective pattern of Katrina as it crossed southern Florida was rather 
asymmetric due to northerly wind shear, which placed the strongest winds and heaviest rains 
south and east of the center in Miami-Dade County.  Katrina continued west-southwestward 
overnight and spent only about six hours over land, mostly over the water-laden Everglades.  
Surface observations and velocity estimates from the Miami and Key West Doppler radars 
indicated that Katrina weakened over mainland Monroe County to a tropical storm with 
maximum sustained winds of 60 knots.  The center of Tropical Storm Katrina then emerged into 
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at approximately 0500 UTC on 26 August just north of Cape 
Sable. 

 
Once back over water, Katrina quickly regained hurricane status at 0600 UTC with 

maximum sustained winds of 65 knots.  Even though the center of Katrina continued west-
southwestward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and away from the southern Florida 
peninsula, a strong and well-defined rain band impacted large portions of the Florida Keys with 
tropical storm-force winds for much of the day on 26 August.  Sustained hurricane-force winds 
were briefly measured at Dry Tortugas on the far western end of the island chain that afternoon. 

 
Situated beneath a very large upper-level anticyclone that dominated the entire Gulf of 

Mexico by 26 August, resulting in very weak wind shear and efficient upper-level outflow, 

 

2

Katrina embarked upon two periods of rapid intensification (defined as a 30 kt or greater 
intensity increase in a 24-h period) between 26 and 28 August.  The first period involved an 
increase in the maximum sustained winds from 65 kt to 95 kt in the 24-h period ending 0600 
UTC 27 August.  An eye became clearly evident in infrared satellite imagery early on 27 August, 
and Katrina became a Category 3 hurricane with 100 kt winds at 1200 UTC that morning about 
365 n mi southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.  During the remainder of the day, the 
inner eyewall deteriorated while a new, outer eyewall formed, and the intensity leveled off at 100 
kt.  Accompanying the intensification and the subsequent deterioration of the inner eyewall was 
a significant expansion of the wind field on 27 August.  Katrina nearly doubled in size on 27 
August, and by the end of that day tropical storm-force winds extended up to about 140 n mi 
from the center.  The strong middle- to upper-tropospheric ridge that had kept Katrina on a west-
southwestward track over the Florida peninsula and southeastern Gulf of Mexico began to shift 
eastward toward Florida, while a mid-latitude trough amplified over the north-central United 
States.  This evolving pattern resulted in a general westward motion on 27 August and a turn 
toward the northwest on 28 August

 

when Katrina moved around the western periphery of the 

retreating ridge.  As Katrina churned westward on 27 August, it produced tropical storm-force 
winds and heavy rainfall over portions of western Cuba.  The new eyewall contracted into a 
sharply-defined ring by 0000 UTC 28 August, and a second, more rapid intensification then 
occurred.  Katrina strengthened from a low-end Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5 in less than 
12 h, reaching an intensity of 145 kt by 1200 UTC 28 August.  Katrina attained its peak intensity 
of 150 kt at 1800 UTC 28 August about 170 n mi southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi 
River.  The wind field continued to expand on 28 August, and by late that day tropical storm-
force winds extended out to about 200 n mi from the center, and hurricane-force winds extended 
out to about 90 n mi from the center, making Katrina not only extremely intense but also 
exceptionally large. 

 
The new eyewall that formed late on 27 August and contracted early on 28 August began 

to erode on its southern side very late on 28 August, while another outer ring of convection 
consolidated.  These structural changes likely contributed to the rapid weakening that was 
observed prior to final landfall.  Katrina turned northward, toward the northern Gulf coast, 
around the ridge over Florida early on 29 August.  The hurricane then made landfall, at the upper 
end of Category 3 intensity with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt, near Buras, 
Louisiana at 1110 UTC 29 August.  Katrina continued northward and made its final landfall near 
the mouth of the Pearl River at the Louisiana/Mississippi border, still as a Category 3 hurricane 
with an estimated intensity of 105 kt.  The rapid weakening of Katrina,

 

from its peak intensity of 

150 kt to 110 kt during the last 18 h or so leading up to the first Gulf landfall, appears to have 
been primarily due to internal structural changes, specifically the deterioration of the inner 
eyewall without the complete formation of a new outer eyewall.  However, Katrina remained 
very large as it weakened, and the extent of tropical storm-force and hurricane-force winds was 
nearly the same at final landfall on 29 August as it had been late on 28 August.  The weakening 
could have been aided by entrainment of dry air that was seen eroding the deep convection over 
the western semicircle while Katrina approached the coast.  Gradually increasing wind shear, 
slightly lower ocean temperatures, and (following the first Gulf landfall) interaction with land 
each could also have played a role.  Without extensive investigation, however, it is not possible 
to assess the relative roles played by these various factors.  The weakening of major hurricanes 
as they approach the northern Gulf coast has occurred on several occasions in the past when one 

 

3

or more of these factors have been in place.  Indeed, an unpublished study by the National 
Hurricane Center (NHC) reveals that, during the past 20 years, all 11 hurricanes having a central 
pressure less than 973 mb 12 h before landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico weakened during 
these last 12 h. 

 
Katrina weakened rapidly after moving inland over southern and central Mississippi, 

becoming a Category 1 hurricane by 1800 UTC 29 August.  It weakened to a tropical storm 
about six hours later just northwest of Meridian, Mississippi.  Katrina accelerated on 30 August, 
between the ridge over the southeastern United States and an eastward-moving trough over the 
Great Lakes.  It turned northeastward over the Tennessee Valley and became a tropical 
depression at 1200 UTC 30 August.  The depression continued northeastward and transformed 
into an extratropical low pressure system by 0000 UTC 31 August.  The low was absorbed 
within a frontal zone later that day over the eastern Great Lakes. 

 
 

b.

 

Meteorological Statistics and Observations 

 

Observations in Katrina (Figs. 2 and 3) include data from satellites, aircraft, airborne and 

ground-based radars, conventional land-based surface and upper-air observing sites, Coastal-
Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) stations, National Ocean Service (NOS) stations, ocean 
data buoys, and ships.  Selected ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with 
Hurricane Katrina are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land stations and 
from coastal and fixed ocean data buoys are given in Table 3.  Data from many Automated 
Surface Observing System (ASOS) sites, C-MAN stations, and buoys are incomplete due to 
power outages and other weather-induced failures prior to when peak winds and minimum 
pressures occurred. 

 
Satellite observations include geostationary satellite-based Dvorak Technique intensity 

estimates from TAFB, the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and the U. S. Air Force Weather 
Agency (AFWA).  Microwave satellite data and imagery from National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) near-polar-orbiting satellites, Defense Meteorological 
Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration 
(NASA) satellites including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), QuikSCAT, and 
Aqua, were also useful in tracking Katrina and assessing changes in its internal structure. 
 

Aircraft reconnaissance missions were tasked on an almost continuous schedule from the 

genesis of Katrina until its final landfall.  Observations from aircraft include flight-level and 
dropwindsonde data from 12 operational missions into Katrina, conducted by the 53rd Weather 
Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command, which produced 46 center 
fixes.  Three missions were flown by the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) Hurricane 
Hunter WP-3D aircraft, producing additional flight-level and dropwindsonde observations, 19 
center fixes, real-time data from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), and 
airborne Doppler radar-derived wind analyses provided by NOAA’s Hurricane Research 
Division (HRD).  Additionally, the NOAA G-IV jet conducted six synoptic surveillance missions 
during 24-29 August to collect dropwindsonde observations, primarily for enhancing the amount 
of data available to operational numerical models that provided guidance to NHC forecasters.  

 

4

An Air Force C-130J aircraft conducted one surveillance mission jointly with the G-IV on 25 
August. 

 
NWS WSR-88D Doppler radars across the southeastern United States and U. S. 

Department of Defense radars located in the Bahamas provided center fixes on Katrina.  NWS 
WSR-88D velocity data were used to help estimate the intensity of Katrina when it was near or 
over land. 

 
Katrina’s Florida landfall intensity of 70 kt near 2230 UTC 25 August is based on 

reduction to the surface of elevated velocities from the NWS Miami WSR-88D radar.  The 
Miami radar, and 65 kt winds measured by the SFMR onboard a NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft, also indicated that Katrina had earlier become a 65 kt hurricane at about 2100 UTC.  
Due to Katrina’s asymmetric convective pattern as it passed over the Florida peninsula, the 
strongest winds occurred south and east of the center in Miami-Dade County.  While the eye 
moved west-southwestward over northern Miami-Dade, it passed over the NWS Miami Forecast 
Office / National Hurricane Center facility near Sweetwater, Florida (Fig. 4), where a pressure of 
983 mb was measured at 0105 UTC 26 August.  The eastern eyewall moved over the facility a 
few minutes later and sustained winds of 60 kt with a gust to 76 kt were measured near 0115 
UTC.  The strongest sustained wind measured by a land-based anemometer was 63 kt on 
Virginia Key (Table 3).  Doppler velocities from both the Miami and Key West WSR-88D radars 
suggest that maximum sustained surface winds were likely just less than hurricane strength while 
Katrina was centered over mainland Monroe County and while crossing the southwestern Florida 
coast.  However, these data, combined with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, indicate Katrina 
regained hurricane strength shortly after emerging over the Gulf of Mexico early on 26 August.  
Later that day, from about 1930 UTC to 2130 UTC, the Dry Tortugas C-MAN station (elevation 
6 m) located about 60 n mi west of Key West, Florida reported sustained hurricane-force winds, 
as strong as 71 kt, with a gust to 91 kt.  While sustained hurricane-force winds were not reported 
elsewhere in the Florida Keys, much of the island chain experienced sustained tropical storm-
force winds with peak gusts between 60 and 70 kt while the center of Katrina passed to the north 
on 26 August (Table 3). 

 
Aircraft data indicate that Katrina continued to strengthen on 26 August, but concentric 

maxima in flight-level wind data and microwave imagery from several near-polar-orbiting 
satellites depict an eyewall replacement cycle that occurred on 27 August.  The deterioration of 
the inner eyewall can be seen by comparing Figs. 5a and 5b.  This cycle temporarily prevented 
further strengthening, and aircraft data and Dvorak estimates indicate the intensity remained 
steady near 100 kt throughout that day.  Katrina produced tropical storm-force winds in portions 
of western Cuba on 27 August, with gusts as strong as 54 kt and rainfall totals exceeding 8 
inches in some locations.  After the new eyewall consolidated and began to contract very early 
on 28 August (Fig. 5c), Katrina deepened that morning at a very rapid rate.  Dropwindsonde 
observations from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central 
pressure fell 32 mb in 12 h, to 909 mb by 1200 UTC 28 August.  The first wind observation to 
support Category 5 intensity was a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 153 kt at about 1100 UTC 
28 August, which corresponds to about 138 kt at the surface, using the 90% adjustment based on 
the mean eyewall wind profile derived from several past storms.  The strongest flight-level wind 
measurement in Katrina was 166 kt near 1400 UTC that day, corresponding to about 150 kt at 

 

5

the surface.  Dropwindsondes on 28 August provided surface wind estimates, derived from the 
mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the sounding (labeled ‘LLM’ in Fig. 2), that were no greater 
than about 130-135 kt, but a few of these sondes directly measured 140-143 kt winds at 10 m.  
However, none of these sondes were released precisely from the point where flight-level winds 
were 166 kt, and it is also not likely that any of these sondes measured the maximum surface 
wind in the circulation.  The SFMR, with a post-storm recalibration applied to compensate for a 
previous low bias at extremely high wind speeds, estimated surface winds as strong as 141 kt on 
the afternoon of 28 August, when maximum flight-level winds were about 160 kt.  All available 
data from dropwindsondes and the SFMR indicate that, on average, the 90% adjustment of 
flight-level winds to the surface was valid until very late on 28 August. 

 
The central pressure in Katrina fell to 902 mb near 1800 UTC 28 August.  This pressure 

was (at the time) the fourth lowest on record in the Atlantic basin, behind 888 mb in Gilbert 
(1988), 892 mb in the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, and 899 mb in Allen (1980).  However, it 
has since quickly fallen to sixth lowest, following an observation of 897 mb in Hurricane Rita in 
September 2005 and the new record of 882 mb in Hurricane Wilma in October 2005.  Based on 
the 902 mb pressure, and on the earlier 166 kt flight-level wind, the peak best track intensity of 
150 kt is estimated to have occurred at 1800 UTC 28 August.  Fig. 6 is a visible satellite image 
of Katrina at that time. 

 
The structure of Katrina changed dramatically from 28 to 29 August as it approached the 

northern Gulf coast.  TRMM 85 GHz imagery at 2133 UTC 28 August revealed a developing 
outer eyewall, and subsequent microwave overpasses depicted the inner eyewall steadily 
eroding, especially on the southern side.  The central pressure gradually rose to 920 mb by the 
time of the initial Louisiana landfall near Buras at about 1110 UTC 29 August.  Maximum 700 
mb flight-level winds were still 130-135 kt east of the eye around that time and were the basis for 
the operationally assessed intensity of 120 kt at the Buras landfall and at 1200 UTC.  NWS 
Slidell WSR-88D radar data confirmed the strength of these flight-level winds, but the center of 
the hurricane was much too distant for the radar to provide concurrent near-surface wind 
estimates close to the eye.  Post-storm analysis of numerous dropwindsonde profiles indicates 
that the structure of Katrina had changed since the previous day when it was at its peak intensity, 
such that the usual 90% adjustment of flight-level winds would likely provide overestimates of 
the surface winds on 29 August.  Comparison of flight-level winds collocated with 
dropwindsondes and SFMR data suggest the flight-level to surface reduction factor that morning 
was closer to 80% or perhaps even less.  Additional evidence of this structural transformation 
comes from airborne Doppler radar-derived wind speed cross sections on 29 August, obtained 
from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft (example in Fig. 7).  These data reveal an unusual, 
broad, and elevated wind maximum in the 2-4 km layer (centered near the 700 mb flight level), 
well above the more typical location of the maximum wind near the top of the boundary layer 
(~500 m) that had been observed on 28 August.  The example in Fig. 7b is one of several cross 
sections from east of the eye on the morning of 29 August that depict the atypical elevated wind 
maximum.

 

 
The aircraft data from 29 August indicate that the structural changes in Katrina were 

associated with its rapid weakening to a high-end Category 3 hurricane just before landfall in 
Louisiana.  The strongest surface (10 m) wind measured by dropwindsonde on the morning of 29 

 

6

August was 99 kt from two separate sondes.  The maximum surface wind estimate from a 
dropwindsonde, derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the sounding using an 
average adjustment derived from profiles in several storms, was 98 kt.  However, analysis of 
several dropwindsonde profiles from 29 August suggests that a slightly different adjustment 
could have been valid that day.  This difference would result in 10 m wind estimates derived 
from the lowest 150 m of the dropwindsonde profiles being 3-5 kt stronger, or up to about 103 
kt.  The maximum surface wind measured by the SFMR on 29 August was 96 kt just after 1200 
UTC.  The best track intensity of Katrina at 1200 UTC 29 August, shortly after the initial 
Louisiana landfall when the central pressure was 923 mb, has been adjusted downward in post-
storm analysis to 110 kt from the operationally assessed value of 120 kt.  The Buras, LA landfall 
intensity about one hour earlier has also been estimated at 110 kt, when the central pressure was 
only slightly lower at 920 mb.  This estimate is still about 10% greater than the maximum 
surface winds from the dropwindsondes and SFMR, accounting for the possibility that these 
instruments did not sample the maximum wind.  It is worth noting that Katrina was likely at 
Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds of about 115 kt near 0900 UTC 29 August, a 
couple of hours before the center made landfall near Buras, LA.  Due to the large (~25-30 n mi) 
radius of maximum winds, it is possible that sustained winds of Category 4 strength briefly 
impacted the extreme southeastern tip of Louisiana in advance of landfall of the center. 

 
The estimated Buras landfall intensity of 110 kt, just beneath the threshold of Category 4, 

is quite low relative to many other hurricanes with a comparable minimum central pressure.  In 
fact, the central pressure of 920 mb is now the lowest on record in the Atlantic basin for an 
intensity of 110 kt, surpassing Hurricane Floyd (1999) that at one point had a central pressure of 
930 mb with an intensity of 110 kt.  The 920 mb pressure is also the third lowest at U. S. landfall 
on record, behind only Hurricane Camille in 1969 (909 mb) and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane 
that struck the Florida Keys (892 mb).  The relatively weak winds in Katrina for such a low 
pressure are the result of the broadening pressure field on 29 August that spread the pressure 
gradient over a much larger than average distance from the center, as confirmed by both surface 
and aircraft observations.  The generally weakening convection likely also reduced momentum 
mixing down to the surface, contributing to surface winds being less than what the usual 90% 
adjustment from flight level winds would dictate.  Katrina exemplifies that there is not simply a 
direct one-to-one relationship between the central pressure and the maximum sustained winds in 
a hurricane. 

 
The central pressure in Katrina continued to gradually rise during the next few hours 

leading up to its final landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border at about 1445 UTC, when 
the pressure had reached 928 mb.  The eastern eyewall of the hurricane remained too distant 
from the NWS Slidell WSR-88D radar during this period for the radar to provide near-surface 
wind estimates where the strongest winds were occurring.  However, all available data from 
aircraft indicate that Katrina’s winds weakened only slightly between the first and last Gulf coast 
landfalls.

 

 Just prior to final landfall, surface (10 m) winds measured by dropwindsonde were as 

strong as 99 kt, adjustment to the surface of the mean wind speed in the lowest 150 m of 
dropwindsonde profiles yielded surface winds of 90-95 kt, and SFMR winds were as strong as 91 
kt.  Making a similar assumption, as for the Buras landfall intensity, that the available data did 
not sample the maximum wind in the circulation, Katrina is estimated to have made final landfall 
at an intensity of 105 kt, 5 kt less than what was assessed operationally. 

 

7

 
The strongest sustained wind measured from a fixed location at the surface on the 

morning of 29 August was 76 kt at 0820 UTC by the C-MAN station at Grand Isle, LA.  This 
station’s anemometer, at 16 m elevation, failed at about 0900 UTC, about two hours before 
closest approach of the eye.  The Southwest Pass, LA C-MAN station (30 m elevation) measured 
a sustained wind of 71 kt at 0420 UTC, before the station failed at about 0500 UTC due to storm 
surge, about four hours prior to closest approach of the eye.  The strongest reported wind gust, 
although unofficial, was 117 kt in Poplarville, MS at the Pearl River County Emergency 
Operations Center (EOC).  A gust to 108 kt was reported in Pascagoula, MS at the Jackson 
County EOC, and a gust to 106 kt was reported by an amateur radio operator at Long Beach, 
MS.  The strongest gust from an official reporting station was 99 kt at the Grand Isle C-MAN 
station at 0838 UTC 29 August, about 2.5 hours prior to the Buras, LA landfall. 

 
While the intensity of Katrina was Category 3 as the center of the eye made its closest 

approach (about 20 n mi) to the east of downtown New Orleans, the strongest winds 
corresponding to that intensity were likely present only over water to the east of the eye.  The 
sustained winds over all of metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain likely remained 
weaker than Category 3 strength.  The strongest sustained wind in New Orleans is subject to 
speculation since observations are sparse, due in part to the power failures that disabled ASOS 
stations in the area before peak wind conditions occurred.  A few instrumented towers placed in 
various locations in the metropolitan area by the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program (FCMP) 
and by Texas Tech University measured sustained winds in the range of 61-68 kt.  The Mid-Lake 
Pontchartrain NWS site (16 m elevation), located along the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway about 
8 n mi north of the south shore of the lake, also measured a one-minute sustained wind of 68 kt.  
Even though these various sites likely did not experience the maximum wind in the area, the 
Mid-Lake Pontchartrain site had open marine exposure, unlike most locations in the city of New 
Orleans.  The NASA Michoud Assembly Facility in eastern New Orleans measured a peak gust 
of 107 kt (at an elevation of about 40 ft), and a nearby chemical facility measured a peak gust of 
104 kt (at an elevation of about 30 ft).  Overall, it appears likely that most of the city of New 
Orleans experienced sustained surface winds of Category 1 or Category 2 strength.  It is 
important to note, however, that winds in a hurricane generally increase from the ground upward 
to a few hundred meters in altitude, and the sustained winds experienced on upper floors of high-
rise buildings were likely stronger than the winds at the same location near the ground.  For 
example, on average the 25th story of a building would experience a sustained wind 
corresponding to one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than that experienced at the standard 
observing height of 10 m. 

 
A precise measurement of the storm surge produced by Katrina along the northern Gulf 

coast has been complicated by many factors, including the widespread failures of tide gauges.  
Additionally, in many locations, most of the buildings along the coast were completely 
destroyed, leaving relatively few structures within which to identify still-water marks.  Despite 
these challenges, several high water mark observations of the storm surge from along the 
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts were collected and analyzed under the direction of 
the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).  These data indicate that the storm surge 
was about 24 to 28 ft along the Mississippi coast across a swath about 20 miles wide, centered 
roughly on St. Louis Bay.  This area encompasses the eastern half of Hancock County and the 

 

8

western half of Harrison County and includes the communities of Waveland, Bay St. Louis, Pass 
Christian, and Long Beach.  The maximum high water mark observation of storm surge was 27.8 
ft at Pass Christian, on the immediate Gulf coast just east of St. Louis Bay.  The data also 
indicate that the storm surge was 17 to 22 ft along the eastern half of the Mississippi coast, 
roughly from Gulfport to Pascagoula.  The surge appears to have penetrated at least six miles 
inland in many portions of coastal Mississippi and up to 12 miles inland along bays and rivers.  
The surge crossed Interstate 10 in many locations.  Observations also indicate Katrina produced 
a lesser but still very significant storm surge of 10 to 15 ft along coastal areas of western 
Alabama (Mobile County) including Dauphin Island.  Katrina also caused flooding several miles 
inland from the Gulf coast along Mobile Bay where data indicate a storm surge of 8 to 12 ft 
occurred, in particular along the northern and western shores of the bay.  Observations indicate 
that the storm surge along the Gulf coast of eastern Alabama (Baldwin County) was as high as 
about 10 ft. 

 
Although the storm surge was highest to the east of the path of the eye of Katrina, a very 

significant storm surge also occurred west of the path of the eye.  As the level of Lake 
Pontchartain rose, several feet of water were pushed into communities along its northeastern 
shore in St. Tammany Parish from Slidell to Mandeville, Louisiana.  High water mark data 
indicate the storm surge was 12 to 16 ft in those areas.  The data also indicate a storm surge of 15 
to 19 ft occurred in eastern New Orleans, St. Bernard Parish, and Plaquemines Parish, while the 
surge was 10 to 14 ft in western New Orleans along the southern shores of Lake Pontchartrain.  
Farther west, observations indicate a storm surge of 5 to 10 ft along the shores of western Lake 
Pontchartrain.  The surge severely strained the levee system in the New Orleans area.  Several of 
the levees and floodwalls were overtopped and/or breached at different times on the day of 
landfall.  Most of the floodwall and levee breaches were due to erosion on the back side caused 
by overtopping, but a few breaches occurred before the waters reached the tops of the floodwalls.  
The surge overtopped large sections of the levees east of New Orleans, in Orleans Parish and St. 
Bernard Parish, and it also pushed water up the Intracoastal Waterway and into the Industrial 
Canal.  The water rise in Lake Pontchartrain strained the floodwalls along the canals adjacent to 
its southern shore, including the 17th Street Canal and the London Avenue Canal.  Breaches 
along the Industrial Canal east of downtown New Orleans, the London Avenue Canal north of 
downtown, and the 17th Street Canal northwest of downtown appear to have occurred during the 
early morning on 29 August.  Overall, about 80% of the city of New Orleans flooded, to varying 
depths up to about 20 ft, within a day or so after landfall of the eye.  Following the setbacks 
caused by additional flooding associated with the late September 2005 passage of Hurricane Rita 
to the south, the Army Corps of Engineers reported on 11 October 2005, 43 days after Katrina’s 
landfall, that all floodwaters had been removed from the city of New Orleans. 

 
The massive storm surge produced by Katrina, even though it had weakened from 

Category 5 intensity the previous day to Category 3 at landfall in Louisiana, can be generally 
explained by the huge size of the storm.  Katrina had on 29 August a large (about 25-30 n mi) 
radius of maximum winds and a very wide swath of hurricane force winds that extended at least 
75 n mi to the east from the center.  Even though Hurricane Camille (1969) was more intense 
than Katrina at landfall while following a similar track, Camille was far more compact and 
produced comparably high storm surge values along a much narrower swath.  Also, Katrina had 
already generated large northward-propagating swells, leading to substantial wave setup along 

 

9

the northern Gulf coast, when it was at Category 4 and 5 strength during the 24 hours or so 
before landfall.  In fact, buoy 42040, operated by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and 
located about 64 n mi south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, reported a significant wave height 
(defined as the average of the one-third highest waves) of 30 ft as early as 0000 UTC 29 August.  
This buoy later measured a peak significant wave height of 55 ft at 1100 UTC that matches the 
largest significant wave height ever measured by a NDBC buoy.  Overall, Katrina’s very high 
storm surge is attributable mainly to the large horizontal size of the hurricane, with the total 
water level being further increased by waves, including those generated the previous day when 
Katrina was at Category 5 strength. 

 
Katrina also produced some storm surge outside of the northern Gulf coast hurricane 

warning areas.  Gauge data indicate that storm surge ranged from about 6 ft along the western 
Florida panhandle to about one or two ft along most of the west-central coast of Florida.  About 
two to four ft of storm surge occurred along the extreme southwestern Florida coast.  A storm 
surge of about two ft was reported at Key West, Florida as Katrina passed by to the north on 26 
August.  The surge was also small, about two ft, along portions of the southeastern coast of 
Florida. 
 

Rainfall distributions associated with Katrina across southern Florida were highly 

asymmetric about the storm track, with the greatest floods occurring over the southern semicircle 
of the hurricane, primarily affecting portions of southern Miami-Dade County.  Selected rainfall 
totals from Miami-Dade County include 14.04 inches at Homestead Air Force Base, 12.25 inches 
at Florida City, and 11.13 inches in Cutler Ridge.  Rainfall amounts to the north of the center 
over northern Miami-Dade County and Broward County were generally 2 to 4 inches

.

  Rainfall 

amounts over interior and western portions of the southern Florida peninsula were much less and 
generally ranged from 1 to 3 inches (Table 3). 
  
 

Precipitation amounts during the landfall along the northern Gulf coast were greatest 

along and just west of the track of the center.  A large swath of 8-10 inches of rain fell across 
southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi, with a small area of 10-12 inches over 
eastern Louisiana, including 11.63 inches reported at the Slidell, LA NWS office.  Katrina 
produced rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches well inland over Mississippi and portions of the 
Tennessee Valley. 
 
 

A total of 43 reported tornadoes were spawned by Katrina.  One tornado was reported in 

the Florida Keys on the morning of 26 August.  On 29-30 August, 20 tornadoes were reported in 
Georgia, 11 in Alabama, and 11 in Mississippi.  The Georgia tornadoes were the most on record 
in that state for any single day in the month of August, and one of them caused the only August 
tornado fatality on record in Georgia. 
 
 
c.

 

Casualty and Damage Statistics 

 

 

 

Katrina was a large and intense hurricane that struck a portion of the United States 

coastline along the northern Gulf of Mexico that is particularly vulnerable to storm surge, 
leading to loss of life and property damage of immense proportions.  The scope of human 

 

10

suffering inflicted by Hurricane Katrina in the United States has been greater than that of any 
hurricane to strike this country in several generations. 
 
 

The total number of fatalities known, as of this writing, to be either directly or indirectly 

related to Katrina is 1833, based on reports to date from state and local officials in five states: 
1577 fatalities in Louisiana, 238 in Mississippi, 14 in Florida, 2 in Georgia, and 2 in Alabama.  
The total number of fatalities directly related to the forces of Katrina is estimated to be about 
1500 spread across four states, with about 1300 of these in Louisiana, about 200 in Mississippi, 6 
in Florida, and one in Georgia.  Especially for Louisiana and Mississippi, the number of direct 
fatalities is highly uncertain and the true number will probably not ever be known.  As of this 
writing, several hundred persons are still reported missing in association with Katrina, so it is 
possible the death toll could grow beyond current estimates. 

 
Presumably, most of the deaths in Louisiana were directly caused by the widespread 

storm surge-induced flooding and its miserable aftermath in the New Orleans area.  However, 
several indirect fatalities in Louisiana have been confirmed or are suspected, and some deaths 
included in the total might not be related to Katrina at all.  Louisiana also reports that persons of 
more than 60 years of age constituted the majority of the Katrina-related fatalities among its 
residents.  The vast majority of the fatalities in Mississippi probably were directly caused by the 
storm surge in the three coastal counties.  In Florida, three of the direct fatalities were caused by 
downed trees in Broward County, and the three others were due to drowning in Miami-Dade 
County.  Two deaths were also reported in Georgia, with one directly caused by a tornado and 
the other occurring in a car accident indirectly related to the storm.  Alabama reported two 
indirect fatalities in a car accident during the storm.  Despite the fact that inland fresh water 
floods produced the majority of fatalities due to tropical cyclones during the past few decades, 
Katrina provides a grim reminder that storm surge poses the greatest potential cause for large 
loss of life in a single hurricane in this country. 
 

Where Katrina ranks among the deadliest hurricanes on record in the United States is 

somewhat uncertain, due to the unknown number of fatalities caused directly by this hurricane 
and by some others in the past.  Katrina is surpassed by the Galveston, Texas hurricane in 1900 
that claimed at least 8000 lives, and by the 1928 Lake Okeechobee, Florida hurricane with over 
2500 fatalities.  If the assumption is correct that most of the Katrina-related fatalities were caused 
directly by the storm, then Katrina ranks as the third deadliest hurricane in the United States 
since 1900, and the deadliest in 77 years.  However, two hurricanes in 1893 might each have 
been directly responsible for more fatalities in the United States than Katrina.  One of these 
struck the southeastern Louisiana barrier island of Cheniere Caminanda and killed about 2000 
people, while another struck Georgia and South Carolina and claimed somewhere between 1000 
and 2000 lives.  As a result, Katrina ranks fourth or fifth on the list of the deadliest hurricanes on 
record in the United States. 
 
 

The extent, magnitude, and impacts of the damage caused by Katrina are staggering and 

are well beyond the scope of this report to fully describe.  Thousands of homes and businesses 
throughout entire neighborhoods in the New Orleans metropolitan area were destroyed by flood.  
Strong winds also caused damage in the New Orleans area, including downtown where windows 
in some high rise buildings were blown out and the roof of the Louisiana Superdome was 

 

11

partially peeled away.  The storm surge of Katrina struck the Mississippi coastline with such 
ferocity that entire coastal communities were obliterated, some left with little more than the 
foundations upon which homes, businesses, government facilities, and other historical buildings 
once stood.  Despite being more distant from the eye of Katrina, the storm surge over Dauphin 
Island, Alabama destroyed or damaged dozens of beachfront homes and cut a new canal through 
the island’s western end.  Many of the most severely impacted areas along the northern Gulf 
coast could take years to completely rebuild.  Katrina’s heavy rains in southern Florida flooded 
some neighborhoods, primarily in Miami-Dade County.  Many other structures from Florida and 
Georgia westward to Louisiana that avoided surge or fresh water floods, including some areas 
well inland, were damaged by strong winds and tornadoes.  Considerable damage to some homes 
and agricultural facilities was caused by several tornadoes in Georgia.  Strong winds caused 
significant tree damage throughout much of Mississippi and Alabama.  Combining all of the 
areas it impacted, Katrina left about three million people without electricity, some for several 
weeks. 
 

The economic and environmental ramifications of Katrina have been widespread and 

could in some respects be long-lasting, due to impacts on large population and tourism centers, 
the oil and gas industry, and transportation.  The hurricane severely impacted or destroyed 
workplaces in New Orleans and other heavily populated areas of the northern Gulf coast, 
resulting in thousands of lost jobs and millions of dollars in lost tax revenues for the impacted 
communities and states.  Along the Mississippi coast, several large casinos on floating barges 
were damaged or destroyed when the surge pushed them onshore.  Large numbers of evacuees 
have not returned home, producing a shortage of workers for those businesses that have 
reopened.  Major beach erosion occurred along the tourism-dependent coasts of Mississippi and 
Alabama.  A significant percentage of United States oil refining capacity was disrupted after the 
storm due to flooded refineries, crippled pipelines, and several oil rigs and platforms damaged, 
adrift or capsized.  An oil rig under construction along the Mobile River in Alabama was 
dislodged, floated 1.5 miles northward, and struck the Cochrane Bridge just north of downtown 
Mobile.  An offshore oil rig washed up near the beach of Dauphin Island, Alabama.  Several 
million gallons of oil were spilled from damaged facilities scattered throughout southeastern 
Louisiana.  While several facilities have since resumed operations, as of this writing oil and 
natural gas production and refining capacity in the northern Gulf of Mexico region remains less 
than that prior to Katrina.  Key transportation arteries were disrupted or cut off by the hurricane.  
Traffic along the Mississippi River was below normal capacity for at least two weeks following 
the storm.  Major highways into and through New Orleans were blocked by floods.  Major 
bridges along the northern Gulf coast were destroyed, including several in Mississippi and the 
Interstate 10 Twin Span Bridge connecting New Orleans and Slidell, Louisiana. 

 
The American Insurance Services Group (AISG) estimates that Katrina is responsible for 

$40.6 billion of insured losses in the United States.  A preliminary estimate of the total damage 
cost of Katrina in the United States is assumed to be roughly twice the insured losses, or about 
$81 billion.  This figure makes Katrina far and away the costliest hurricane in United States 
history.  Even after adjusting for inflation, the estimated total damage cost of Katrina is roughly 
double that of Hurricane Andrew (1992).  Normalizing for inflation and for increases in 
population and wealth, only the 1926 hurricane that struck southern Florida surpasses Katrina in 
terms of damage cost.  The Insurance Information Institute reports that, mostly due to Katrina 

 

12

but combined with significant impacts from the other hurricanes striking the United States this 
year, 2005 was by a large margin the costliest year ever for insured catastrophe losses in this 
country. 
 
 

Data provided by FEMA indicate that over 1.2 million people along the northern Gulf 

coast from southeastern Louisiana to Alabama were under some type of evacuation order, but it 
is not clear how many people actually evacuated.  Media reports indicate that many displaced 
residents have moved either temporarily or permanently to other areas in the United States.  A 
large number of these people might never return to live in their pre-Katrina homes or cities.  
Thousands of people are still living in hotels and temporary shelters as of this writing.  Some 
people remain separated from other family members and/or are unable to determine if their 
family member(s) survived the storm. 
 
 
d.

 

Forecast and Warning Critique 

 

The possibility of development of the system that eventually became Katrina was 

conveyed in the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) issued by the NHC, beginning about 36 hours 
before it became a depression on 23 August.  Only gradual development was anticipated in the 
TWO until the incipient system began to consolidate early in the morning of 23 August, about 12 
hours before the first advisory was issued.  The possibility that a depression could form later in 
the day was conveyed in the 11:30 am EDT issuance of the TWO on 23 August. 

 
Average official forecast track errors in nautical miles (n mi) (with number of cases in 

parentheses) for Katrina were 24 (27), 42 (25), 64 (23), 96 (21), 174 (17), 213 (13), and 244 (9) 
for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts respectively.   These forecast errors were 
considerably less than the average official Atlantic track errors for the 10-year period 1995-2004 
of 42, 75, 107, 138, 202, 236, 310 for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively 
(Table 4).  Note that average errors at 96 and 120 h reflect only the period 2001-2004 when those 
forecasts had been made either experimentally (2001-02) or operationally (2003-04).  The 12-48 
h official forecasts during Katrina represented significant improvements of 43%, 44%, 40%, and 
31%, respectively, over the corresponding 10-year averages.  The relatively small errors at 12-48 
hours greatly helped in the issuance of generally accurate and timely coastal watches and 
warnings (Table 5).  The 72, 96, and 120 h official track forecast errors were still less than the 
long-term averages, but only by 14%, 10%, and 25%, respectively.  The errors at these longer 
lead times can be partially attributed to the difficult forecast scenario associated with Katrina’s 
west-southwestward motion across the southern Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. 
 
  

Even though the official track forecasts were generally much better than the previous 10-

year averages, the official forecasts were bettered on average at various lead times by several of 
the numerical models (Table 4).  Specifically, the interpolated United Kingdom Met. Office 
global model (UKMI), the Florida State University Superensemble (FSSE), and the CONU and 
GUNA consensus models on average provided forecasts that were more accurate than the official 
forecast out to 72 h.  The interpolated versions of the GFDL and NOGAPS models, GFDI and 
NGPI, on average were more accurate for Katrina than the official forecast at 72 and 96 h; GFDI 
was also more accurate than the official forecast at 120 h.  Contributing to the lower GFDI errors 

 

13

was the fact that, before Katrina crossed Florida, the GFDI forecast a more southerly track across 
the Florida peninsula and a track farther to the west over the Gulf of Mexico than the official 
forecast. 
 
 

The official track forecasts for Katrina issued within about two and a half days of landfall 

of the center in Louisiana were exceptionally accurate and consistent.  Every official forecast 
that was issued beginning at 2100 UTC 26 August showed a track crossing the coast of 
Mississippi and/or southeastern Louisiana.  The NHC does not explicitly issue forecasts for the 
precise location or timing of landfall.  However, it is instructive to examine the forecasts for 
Katrina verifying at 1200 UTC 29 August, less than an hour following the initial Louisiana 
landfall.  The official track forecasts issued 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours prior to 1200 UTC 29 
August were in error by only 19, 24, 32, and 56 n mi, respectively.  These errors are less than 
half the magnitude of the corresponding 10-year averages among all Atlantic basin forecasts.  
Importantly, they were all issued with a hurricane watch or warning in effect for the northern 
Gulf coast.  Much of the credit for these very small errors must be given to the guidance 
provided by several dynamical models during this time frame. 
 
 

Average official intensity forecast errors during Katrina were 10, 17, 22, 28, 47, 43, and 

36 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively.  These errors were 
considerably larger than the corresponding Atlantic 10-year (1995-2004) averages of 6, 10, 12, 
15, 18, 20, and 22 kt.  Despite the larger than average intensity errors, the official forecasts did 
provide some useful indications, especially with respect to the issued watches and warnings, of 
what the intensity could be at the initial United States landfall in Florida.  Additionally, every 
official forecast within about three days of landfall in Louisiana correctly anticipated that Katrina 
would be a major hurricane (at least Category 3) at landfall on the northern Gulf coast.  The 
average official intensity forecast errors at all lead times were less than those for the SHIPS 
model (with inland decay component included), the GFNI (interpolated GFDN), and the FSSE.  
However, the GFDI (interpolated GFDL) intensity forecasts were on average more accurate than 
the official intensity forecasts, except at 12 and 120 h.  Katrina was an unusually intense 
hurricane and underwent two rapid intensification periods, including the very rapid strengthening 
from Category 3 to Category 5 on the morning of 28 August.  Obviously, accurately forecasting 
the timing and magnitude of such events remains an operational challenge, in part because the 
available intensity guidance models generally have little or no skill in forecasting rapid intensity 
changes.  However, the GFDI was quite accurate in forecasting, about two days in advance, that 
Katrina would reach the Category 2/3 intensity threshold early on 27 August.  In fact, it was in 
error by only 2 kt with its 24-h forecast of Katrina’s strengthening from 65 kt to 95 kt by 0600 
UTC 27 August.  The GFDI model also consistently forecast Katrina to reach Category 4 
intensity beyond that time and to remain a major hurricane until landfall on the northern Gulf 
coast.  The GFDI fell short of forecasting at any lead time the strengthening of the winds from 
Category 3 to Category 5 intensity on 28 August.  However, the model did forecast the central 
pressure to fall to about 920 mb beginning about two days before that occurred on 28 August, 
and it even forecast the pressure to fall below 910 mb about 24 hours in advance of when the 902 
mb minimum pressure was observed. 
 
 

Table 5 lists all of the coastal watches and warnings issued for Katrina.  A tropical storm 

warning was issued for the central and northwestern Bahamas at 2100 UTC 23 August, 

 

14

approximately 15 hours before Katrina strengthened into a tropical storm over the Bahamas.  A 
tropical storm watch was issued on 24 August at 0300 UTC, approximately 43.5 hours prior to 
the landfall of the center of Katrina in Florida, for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern 
peninsula of Florida from Seven Mile Bridge northward to Vero Beach.  A hurricane watch was 
later issued from Florida City to Vero Beach on 24 August at 1500 UTC, approximately 31.5 
hours ahead of landfall of the center, and this was changed to a hurricane warning on August 25 
at 0300 UTC, approximately 19.5 hours prior to landfall.  The lead times on the hurricane watch 
and warning for southern Florida were less than the usual targets of 36 and 24 hours, 
respectively, since Katrina’s forward motion toward the peninsula later on 25 August was faster 
than forecast.  However, the hurricane watch and warning were issued while Katrina was still a 
tropical storm.  Despite the uncertainties in intensity forecasting, strengthening to a hurricane 
before the Florida landfall was correctly forecast from the time the hurricane watch was issued.  
Strengthening to near the threshold of hurricane status before landfall was also indicated in every 
advisory on Katrina issued prior to that time. 
 
 

A tropical storm watch was issued for the middle and upper Florida Keys about two days 

before tropical storm conditions reached those areas.  However, subsequent tropical storm 
watches and warnings for the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of the Florida peninsula 
were issued with less than the desired lead times, due to the actual motion of Katrina across the 
peninsula being more rapid and more toward the west-southwest than forecast.  A tropical storm 
warning was issued at 2100 UTC 25 August for the Florida Keys from Key West northeastward, 
and along the southwestern coast of Florida from Longboat Key southward, about nine hours 
before tropical storm-force winds began in portions of that warning area.  Additionally, while a 
tropical storm warning was issued for Dry Tortugas at 0500 UTC 26 August, a hurricane 
warning was never issued for that island.  Sustained hurricane-force winds were reported there 
for a brief period near 2100 UTC 26 August.  However, sustained hurricane-force winds were 
not reported anywhere else in the Florida Keys. 
 

A hurricane watch was initially issued for the Louisiana coast from Morgan City to the 

mouth of the Pearl River at the Mississippi border, on 27 August at 1500 UTC, approximately 44 
hours in advance of the initial Louisiana landfall of the center of Katrina.  This watch was 
extended eastward at 2100 UTC that day to include the entire coastlines of Mississippi and 
Alabama, more than 41 hours prior the landfall of the center near the Louisiana/Mississippi 
border.  A hurricane warning was later issued from Morgan City to the Florida/Alabama border 
at 0300 UTC 28 August, approximately 32 hours in advance of the initial Louisiana landfall of 
the center and more than 35 hours prior to the final landfall of the center.  These long lead times 
were necessary to account for the large extent of hurricane-force winds from the center, and the 
need to complete preparations before the even earlier arrival on the coast of tropical storm-force 
winds.  The timing of the watches and warnings was especially prudent given that Katrina 
reached the coast slightly faster than forecast at the time they were issued.  To allow for 
sufficient lead time while accounting for forecast uncertainty, these watch and warning areas 
were fairly large.  However, since hurricane-force winds extended at least 75 n mi to the east 
from the center of Katrina on the morning of final landfall, if the watch and warning areas had 
been any smaller on the eastern end, portions of the coastline would not have been properly 
warned.  Sustained hurricane-force winds were reported as far east as Dauphin Island, Alabama, 
leaving at most about 30 n mi to spare within the eastern end of the hurricane warning area. 

 

15

 
About 24 hours before the center of the hurricane made final landfall, NHC public 

advisories began conveying the expectation that the storm surge would be 18-22 ft, locally as 
high as 28 ft, near wherever the center of Katrina would make landfall.  These forecasts were 
based on real-time, operational runs by the NHC of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from 
Hurricanes (SLOSH) model.  The observed storm surge values described earlier in section b 
indicate that these SLOSH-based NHC forecasts of storm surge were quite accurate. 
 
 
e.  Acknowledgements 
 

Some of the aircraft reconnaissance data in this report were processed, interpreted, and 

furnished by NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD).  Special appreciation is extended to 
Dr. Peter Black (HRD), Mr. Eric Ulhorn (HRD), and Mr. James Franklin (NHC) for their 
analysis of this data.  Dr. Stephen Baig (NHC Storm Surge Team Leader) and Lt. Jennifer Pralgo 
(NOAA Commissioned Corps Officer at NHC) provided storm surge data that were collected 
and analyzed under the direction of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).  Mr. 
Colin McAdie (NHC) provided archived WSR-88D radar data.  Most of the surface observations 
in this report were provided by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and by several National 
Weather Service Forecast Offices in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and 
Tennessee.  Appreciation is also extended to NHC Hurricane Specialists Lixion Avila, Jack 
Beven, Richard Pasch, and Stacy Stewart, to NHC Deputy Director Ed Rappaport, and to NHC 
Director Max Mayfield for their valuable input to this report. 

 

16

Table 1. 

Best track for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005. 

 

Date/Time 

(UTC) 

Latitude 

(°N) 

Longitude 

(°W) 

Pressure 

(mb) 

Wind 

Speed 

(kt) 

Stage 

23 / 1800 

23.1 

 75.1 

1008 

 30 

tropical 

depression 

24 / 0000 

23.4 

 75.7 

1007 

 30 

" 

24 / 0600 

23.8 

 76.2 

1007 

 30 

" 

24 / 1200 

24.5 

 76.5 

1006 

 35 

tropical storm 

24 / 1800 

25.4 

 76.9 

1003 

 40 

" 

25 / 0000 

26.0 

 77.7 

1000 

 45 

" 

25 / 0600 

26.1 

 78.4 

 997 

 50 

" 

25 / 1200 

26.2 

 79.0 

 994 

 55 

" 

25 / 1800 

26.2 

 79.6 

 988 

 60 

" 

26 / 0000 

25.9 

 80.3 

 983 

 70 

hurricane 

26 / 0600 

25.4 

 81.3 

 987 

 65 

" 

26 / 1200 

25.1 

 82.0 

 979 

 75 

" 

26 / 1800 

24.9 

 82.6 

 968 

 85 

" 

27 / 0000 

24.6 

 83.3 

 959 

 90 

" 

27 / 0600 

24.4 

 84.0 

 950 

 95 

" 

27 / 1200 

24.4 

 84.7 

 942 

100 

" 

27 / 1800 

24.5 

 85.3 

 948 

100 

" 

28 / 0000 

24.8 

 85.9 

 941 

100 

" 

28 / 0600 

25.2 

 86.7 

 930 

125 

" 

28 / 1200 

25.7 

 87.7 

 909 

145 

" 

28 / 1800 

26.3 

 88.6 

 902 

150 

" 

29 / 0000 

27.2 

 89.2 

 905 

140 

" 

29 / 0600 

28.2 

 89.6 

 913 

125 

" 

29 / 1200 

29.5 

 89.6 

 923 

110 

" 

29 / 1800 

31.1 

 89.6 

 948 

 80 

" 

30 / 0000 

32.6 

 89.1 

 961 

 50 

tropical storm 

30 / 0600 

34.1 

 88.6 

 978 

 40 

" 

30 / 1200 

35.6 

 88.0 

 985 

 30 

tropical depression

30 / 1800 

37.0 

 87.0 

 990 

 30 

" 

31 / 0000 

38.6 

 85.3 

 994 

 30 

extratropical 

31 / 0600 

40.1 

 82.9 

 996 

 25 

" 

31 / 1200 

 

 

 

 

merged with front 

28 / 1800 

26.3 

 88.6 

 902 

150 

Maximum wind 

and minimum 

pressure 

25 / 2230 

26.0 

80.1 

984 

70 

FL landfall at 

Broward/Miami-

Dade County line 

 

17

29 / 1110 

29.3 

89.6 

920 

110 

Landfall near 

Buras, LA 

29 / 1445 

30.2 

89.6 

928 

105 

Landfall near 

LA/MS border 

    

 

18

Table 2. 

Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30  

  August 

2005. 

 

Date/Time 

(UTC) 

Ship call sign 

 

Latitude 

(°N) 

Longitude 

(°W) 

Wind 

dir/speed (kt) 

Pressure  

(mb) 

25 / 1800 

ZCAM5  

 26.8 

  79.3 

080 /  37 

1005.5 

26 / 0600 

WNDG   

 24.5 

  80.3 

190 /  45 

1005.0 

26 / 0600 

WTER   

 24.6 

  81.8 

260 /  40 

 999.3 

26 / 0600 

KSYP   

 24.8 

  80.4 

180 /  36 

1004.5 

26 / 1200 

WFJN   

 24.0 

  81.8 

250 /  37 

1003.0 

26 / 1400 

WTER   

 24.6 

  81.8 

200 /  50 

1000.8 

26 / 1500 

WTER   

 24.6 

  81.8 

200 /  55 

1000.8 

26 / 1800 

WTER   

 24.6 

  81.8 

180 /  39 

1002.9 

26 / 1900 

WTER   

 24.6 

  81.8 

160 /  52 

1002.2 

26 / 2100 

C6FM9  

 24.4 

  80.4 

180 /  40 

1007.0 

26 / 2100 

WTER   

 24.6 

  81.8 

160 /  35 

1001.4 

27 / 0000 

ELQQ4  

 24.1 

  82.0 

180 /  37 

1000.5 

27 / 0600 

V7DW6  

 22.8 

  84.3 

240 /  45 

 999.0 

27 / 1200 

KS049  

 22.7 

  84.5 

240 /  36 

 994.1 

27 / 1800 

H3VR   

 23.2 

  83.3 

190 /  40 

1001.0 

27 / 1800 

KS049  

 23.5 

  82.6 

160 /  41 

 994.5 

27 / 1800 

ELQQ4  

 25.5 

  83.1 

120 /  37 

1003.5 

27 / 2100 

WDB325 

 23.8 

  86.8 

340 /  38 

 995.2 

27 / 2100 

WGXO   

 23.8 

  82.8 

150 /  37 

1001.2 

28 / 0000 

PFSK   

 21.1 

  84.4 

200 /  35 

1005.5 

28 / 0000 

WGXO   

 23.5 

  83.2 

160 /  37 

1000.3 

28 / 0300 

WGXO   

 23.2 

  83.8 

160 /  37 

1002.0 

28 / 0300 

WDB325 

 23.7 

  85.5 

220 /  37 

 996.0 

28 / 0600 

WGXO   

 23.0 

  84.5 

170 /  44 

1001.2 

28 / 0600 

WDB325 

 23.7 

  84.7 

190 /  54 

 999.5 

28 / 0800 

V7HD3  

 27.6 

  92.1 

000 /  35 

 994.0 

28 / 0900 

WDB325 

 23.7 

  84.0 

190 /  48 

1001.2 

28 / 1200 

WGXO   

 23.0 

  85.9 

190 /  44 

 999.5 

28 / 1200 

PFSK   

 23.0 

  85.7 

200 /  37 

1001.9 

28 / 1200 

PJOJ   

 27.6 

  83.0 

130 /  35 

1007.3 

28 / 1400 

AUBK   

 24.0 

  88.3 

250 /  37 

1000.0 

28 / 1400 

VRZN8  

 27.9 

  91.0 

040 /  47 

 

28 / 1500 

WGXO   

 23.0 

  86.8 

210 /  40 

1000.8 

28 / 1500 

C6FE5  

 23.1 

  86.5 

190 /  36 

1006.5 

28 / 1500 

V7HD2  

 27.1 

  91.6 

010 /  40 

1003.0 

28 / 1700 

VRZN8  

 27.9 

  91.7 

040 /  47 

  

28 / 1800 

C6FE5  

 23.8 

  87.0 

200 /  36 

1004.5 

28 / 1800 

MCLQ4  

 26.0 

  84.9 

180 /  42 

1005.0 

28 / 1800 

V7HC8  

 27.5 

  90.6 

020 /  40 

 998.0 

 

19

28 / 2100 

WGXO   

 23.5 

  88.2 

240 /  37 

 998.5 

28 / 2100 

V7HC6  

 26.2 

  91.4 

350 /  35 

 993.0 

28 / 2100 

V7EA2  

 26.9 

  91.7 

350 /  37 

 989.4 

28 / 2100 

V7HD2  

 27.0 

  92.3 

350 /  35 

1001.0 

28 / 2100 

V7HC8  

 27.4 

  90.9 

010 /  35 

 997.0 

29 / 0000 

WGXO   

 23.7 

  89.1 

230 /  37 

 998.8 

29 / 0000 

C6KJ5  

 24.9 

  89.4 

240 /  38 

 994.5 

29 / 0000 

V7HC6  

 26.2 

  91.4 

320 /  40 

 993.1 

29 / 0000 

ELXL3  

 26.6 

  90.9 

310 /  55 

 990.0 

29 / 0000 

V7EA2  

 26.8 

  91.7 

340 /  44 

 986.8 

29 / 0000 

V7HD2  

 27.0 

  92.7 

350 /  40 

1001.0 

29 / 0000 

V7HC9  

 27.1 

  92.6 

020 /  37 

 998.6 

29 / 0200 

VRZN8  

 26.5 

  92.7 

350 /  54 

 997.0 

29 / 0300 

C6KJ5  

 25.2 

  89.7 

220 /  38 

 995.7 

29 / 0300 

ELXL3  

 26.5 

  90.8 

310 /  52 

 991.0 

29 / 0300 

V7EA2  

 26.8 

  91.7 

320 /  44 

 988.2 

29 / 0400 

V7HC8  

 27.1 

  91.4 

350 /  40 

 996.0 

29 / 0500 

VRZN8  

 26.4 

  92.2 

330 /  54 

 996.0 

29 / 0600 

C6KJ5  

 25.5 

  90.0 

220 /  38 

 997.0 

29 / 0600 

ELXL3  

 26.4 

  90.8 

290 /  45 

 994.0 

29 / 0600 

V7HC9  

 27.0 

  92.7 

340 /  37 

 998.3 

29 / 0600 

MCLQ4  

 27.6 

  85.2 

150 /  36 

1005.6 

29 / 0700 

V7EA2  

 26.8 

  91.7 

300 /  40 

 988.0 

29 / 0800 

V7HC9  

 27.0 

  92.7 

320 /  38 

 998.6 

29 / 0900 

C6KJ5  

 25.9 

  90.5 

220 /  35 

 997.5 

29 / 0900 

VRZN8  

 26.3 

  91.4 

330 /  54 

 995.0 

29 / 0900 

ELXL3  

 26.4 

  90.8 

260 /  44 

 996.0 

29 / 0900 

V7EA2  

 26.8 

  91.7 

290 /  35 

 989.9 

29 / 1100 

C6FM8  

 22.3 

  88.0 

230 /  35 

1009.0 

29 / 1200 

VRZN8  

 26.5 

  91.0 

040 /  47 

 995.0 

29 / 1200 

MCLQ4  

 28.3 

  85.5 

170 /  36 

1004.3 

29 / 1500 

VRZN8  

 26.9 

  90.7 

270 /  54 

 999.0 

29 / 1800 

MCLQ4  

 28.3 

  86.4 

200 /  39 

1004.8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

20

 
Table 3.     Selected surface observations for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005. 
 
 

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

Storm 

surge 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Florida 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    Official  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WFO Miami (near 
Sweetwater) 

26/0105 

983.1 

26/0115 

60 

76 

 

 

5.90 

Virginia Key (RSMAS) 

25/2254 

990.2 

25/2355 

63 

81 

 

 

 

Fort Lauderdale (KFLL) 

25/2245 

988.8 

25/2355 

52 

71 

 

 

3.07 

West Kendall (KTMB) 

26/0109 

986.1 

26/0137 

43 

66 

 

 

7.71

i

Miami (KMIA) 

26/0020 

987.8 

26/0124 

42 

68 

 

 

5.10 

Virginia Key (AOML) 

25/2300 

988.0 

25/2330 

 

66 

 

 

7.40 

Boca Raton (KBCT) 

 

 

25/1950 

 

56 

 

 

 

Fort Lauderdale- Executive 
Airport  (KFXE) 

 

 

26/0028 

41 

57 

 

 

2.90 

Pompano Beach (KPMP) 

25/2213 

997.6 

25/2213 

41 

54 

 

 

1.63 

Opa Locka (KOPF) 

25/2327 

987.5 

25/2229 

39 

57 

 

 

 

Pembroke Pines (KHWO) 

25/2156 

992.9

i

25/2156 

39

i

56

i

 

 

 

Miami Beach (KMBF) 

26/0000 

987.8 

26/0000 

30 

47 

 

 

3.48 

West Palm Beach (KPBI) 

25/2000 

1005

i

26/0243 

28

i

35

i

 

 

1.21 

Naples (KAPF) 

26/1100 

1002

i

26/1711 

24

i

36

i

 

 

0.66 

Homestead (KHST) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.04 

Chekika

e

 

 

26/0235 

 

66 

 

 

8.14 

Racoon Point

e

 

 

26/0435 

 

34 

 

 

3.94 

Tenraw

e

 

 

26/0220 

 

63 

 

 

3.70 

Cache

e

 

 

26/0715 

 

58 

 

 

5.31 

Ochopee

e

 

 

26/1135 

 

44 

 

 

1.36 

Oasis

e

 

 

26/0430 

 

55 

 

 

1.55 

Key West (KEYW) 

26/1353 

999.3 

26/1527 

53 

64 

 

est 2.5 

10.05 

Key West Naval Air 
Station (KNQX) 

 

 

26/1549 

48 

60 

 

 

 

Marathon (KMTH) 

26/0728 

1000.7 

26/0836 

30 

44 

 

 

9.71 

Big Pine Key 

 

 

26/1340 

33 

44 

 

 

 

 

21

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Storm 

Storm 

Total 

Location 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

surge 

(ft)

c

tide 

rain 

(ft)

d

(in) 

Fort Myers (KFMY) 

26/0950 

1004.4 

26/1742 

26 

34 

 

 

1.17 

Fort Myers (KRSW) 

26/1008 

1004.1 

26/1649 

27 

35 

 

 

1.53 

Punta Gorda (KPGD) 

26/0956 

1006.4 

26/1728 

29 

36 

 

 

1.37 

Winter Haven (KGIF) 

26/2019 

1008.5 

26/2038 

28 

34 

 

 

0.21 

St. Petersburg (KSPG) 

27/2053 

1006.4 

26/1837 

34 

42 

 

 

0.33 

Fort Myers  

 

 

 

 

 

0.96 

2.34 

 

St. Petersburg 

 

 

 

 

 

1.07 

3.35 

 

Clearwater Beach  

 

 

 

 

 

1.13 

3.81 

 

Apalachicola (KAAF) 

29/1850 

1005.1 

29/2055 

28 

34 

 

 

0.27 

Panama City (KPFN) 

29/1650 

1002.4 

29/1507 

24 

34 

 

 

0.44 

Destin (KDTS) 

29/2053 

999.3 

29/1722 

30 

44 

 

 

 

Pensacola (KPNS) 

29/1757 

995.3 

29/1452 

49 

60 

 

 

 

Crestview (KCEW) 

29/1523 

998.9 

29/1855 

30 

38 

 

 

 

Eglin Air Force Base 
(KVPS) 

29/2023 

998.9 

29/1958 

33 

46 

 

 

 

Mary Esther (KHRT) 

29/1935 

998.9 

29/1517 

38 

52 

 

 

 

Pensacola Naval Air 
Station (KNPA) 

29/1756 

995.3 

29/1811 

49 

62 

 

 

 

Pensacola (PENF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.37 

 

Santa Rosa Sound 
(FWLF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.10 

 

Destin (EPSF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.52 

 

     Unofficial  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Miami Beach 

25/2330 

985  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pembroke Park 

25/2214 

985.8 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Homestead General 
Airport 

 

 

26/0345 

 

84 

 

 

11.80 

Port Everglades 

 

 

25/2300 

 

80 

 

 

 

West Kendall  
(Country Walk) 

 

 

26/0130 

 

75 

 

 

6.93 

Miami – The Falls 
(from Weather 
Underground) 

26/0050 

988.7 

26/0150 

 

56 

 

 

 

Palmetto Bay 

26/0005 

994.9 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pembroke Pines 

 

 

25/2000 

 

56 

 

 

 

 

22

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Storm 

Storm 

Total 

Location 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

surge 

(ft)

c

tide 

rain 

(ft)

d

(in) 

Weston (from Weather 
Underground) 

26/0130 

997.2 

26/0130 

 

40 

 

 

 

Boynton Beach  

25/2000 

1003.2 

25/2000 

 

48 

 

 

2.51 

Davie 

 

 

25/2314 

 

64 

 

 

 

Fort Lauderdale 

 

 

25/2218 

 

58 

 

 

 

Miramar 

 

 

26/0042 

 

57 

 

 

 

Hialeah 

 

 

26/0044 

 

52 

 

 

 

Cooper City 

 

 

26/0020 

 

52 

 

 

 

Miami Shores 

 

 

25/2318 

 

51 

 

 

 

Pompano Beach  

 

 

25/2339 

 

50 

 

 

 

Pembroke Park 

 

 

26/0029 

 

47 

 

 

 

Coral Springs 

 

 

26/0020 

 

43 

 

 

 

Perrine 

 

 

25/2330 

 

42 

 

 

 

Marco Island 

 

 

26/1530 

 

67 

 

 

 

Cudjoe Key 

 

 

26/1103 

44 

63 

 

 

 

Perrine 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16.33

i

Key Biscayne 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.36 

Hialeah 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.30 

Big Cypress 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.93 

Hollywood 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.78 

Fort Lauderdale 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.51 

West Boynton Beach 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.66 

Palm Beach Gardens 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.57 

Devils Garden 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.20 

Florida City

j

(SFWMD S179) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.25 

West Perrine

j

(SFWMD S331) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11.71 

Cutler Ridge

j

  

(SFWMD S165) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11.13 

Florida City

j

(SFWMD SDAF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.30 

Florida City

j

(SFWMD BBBF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.02 

Goulds

j

(SFWMD BCPF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.57 

 

23

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Storm 

Storm 

Total 

Location 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

surge 

(ft)

c

tide 

rain 

(ft)

d

(in) 

Leisure City

j

(SFWMD BHMF1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.40 

Curry Hammock State 
Park 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.89 

Key Largo (John 
Pennekamp State Park) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.94 

Flamingo 

 

 

 

 

 

2-4  

3-5 

 

Key West  
Southermost Point 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.5 

 

Steinhatchee 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.40 

Walton County 

 

 

 

 

 

5 

 

 

Bay County 

 

 

 

 

 

5 

 

 

Gulf County 

 

 

 

 

 

5 

 

 

Franklin County 

 

 

 

 

 

5 

 

 

Wakulla County 

 

 

 

 

 

5 

 

 

Taylor County 

 

 

 

 

 

2 

 

 

Dixie County 

 

 

 

 

 

2 

 

 

Eglin Air Base Sensor  
(6 mi west of Mary Esther) 

 

 

29/1434 

51 

60 

 

 

 

Destin 

 

 

 

 

37 

 

 

 

Pensacola (WEAR TV) 

 

 

 

 

50 

 

 

3.06 

Philpot 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.80 

Milton 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.50 

Molina 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.00 

Okaloosa County 

 

 

 

 

 

 

est 4-6 

 

Santa Rosa County 

 

 

 

 

 

 

est 5-8 

 

Escambia County 

 

 

 

 

 

 

est 7-9 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cuba 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P. R. de San Diego 

27/0600 

1003.3 

27/0940 

25 

32 

 

 

5.16 

San Juan y Martinez 

26/2300 

1002.6 

27/1550 

35 

45 

 

 

8.45 

Bahia Honda 

27/0600 

1001.2 

27/0950 

32 

40 

 

 

5.24 

Pinar del Rio 

27/1305 

1002.3 

27/1605 

38 

48 

 

 

8.20 

La Palma 

27/0900 

1000.6 

27/0930 

40 

50 

 

 

5.84 

 

24

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Storm 

Storm 

Total 

Location 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

surge 

(ft)

c

tide 

rain 

(ft)

d

(in) 

Isabel Rubio 

27/0850 

1002.3 

27/0635 

37 

46 

 

 

8.30 

Cabo de San Antonio 

27/1200 

1001.8 

27/0930 

46 

54 

 

 

0.98 

Santa Lucia 

27/0900 

996.4 

27/1030 

35 

44 

 

 

2.06 

Casa Blanca 

 

 

27/0505 

43 

52 

 

 

 

Santiago de las Vegas 

27/0500 

1003.2 

27/0600 

37 

41 

 

 

6.94 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alabama 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     Official 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dothan (KDHN) 

29/1758 

1002.0 

29/1848 

24 

38 

 

 

2.16 

Mobile (KMOB) 

29/1632 

983.4 

29/1546 

57 

72 

 

 

3.80 

Mobile (KBFM) 

29/1653 

985.8 

29/1501 

58 

73 

 

 

 

Evergreen (KGZH) 

29/2224 

993.9 

29/2008 

32 

42 

 

 

 

Mobile State Docks 
(MBRA1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11.45 

 

Dauphin Island (DAUA1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.63 

 

Perdido Pass (PPSA1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.81 

 

Open Pond

e

 

 

29/1620 

 

37 

 

 

2.27 

Birmingham (KBHM) 

30/0340 

992.9 

30/0418 

31 

45 

 

 

0.78 

Oakmulgee

e

 

 

30/0220 

 

43

i

 

 

 

Montgomery (KMGM) 

30/0059 

995 

30/0108 

31 

39 

 

 

0.20 

Anniston (KANB) 

30/0720 

997.5 

30/0720 

29 

37 

 

 

 

Troy (KTOI) 

30/0101 

999 

30/0147 

27 

36 

 

 

2.18 

Calera (KEET) 

30/0349 

993 

30/0345 

28

i

39

i

 

 

0.83

i

Huntsville (KHSV) 

30/0934 

991.2 

 

 

 

 

 

2.05 

Decatur (KDCU) 

30/0522 

990.2 

 

 

 

 

 

2.33 

Muscle Shoals  (KMSL) 

30/0721 

986.1 

 

 

 

 

 

3.52 

     

Unofficial 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mobile Bay  
(USS Alabama) 

 

 

 

 

90 

 

e 12 

 

Semmes 

29/1715 

982.7 

 

 

57 

 

 

5.70 

Daphne 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.97 

Thomasville 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.17 

Oak Grove 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.00 

 

25

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Baldwin County 

 

 

 

 

 

 

est     

9-11 

 

Mobile County 

 

 

 

 

 

 

est   

10-13 

 

Cuba 

 

955.0 

 

 

69 

 

 

 

Vance 

 

 

 

 

59 

 

 

 

Jefferson County  
(Jimmie Hale Mission) 

 

992.2 

 

 

52 

 

 

 

Jefferson County 
(Limbaugh Toyota) 

 

992.9 

 

 

41 

 

 

 

Jefferson County 
(Advent School) 

 

992.9 

 

 

37 

 

 

 

Birmingham Race Course 

 

995.6 

 

 

45 

 

 

 

Guin 

 

986.5 

 

 

41 

 

 

 

Ranburne 

 

 

 

 

39 

 

 

 

Attalla 

 

 

 

 

34 

 

 

 

Vance County 
(Mercedes Benz) 

 

988.5 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gadsden 

 

998.3 

 

 

 

 

 

0.92 

Hamilton 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.82 

Addison 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.62 

Selma 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.00 

Anderson 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.35 

Athens 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.59 

Mount Hester 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.85 

Dime 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.31 

Hodges 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.96 

Red Bay 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.90 

Russellville 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.95 

Russellville TVA 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.10 

Hytop 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.06 

Oakland 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.12 

Wilson Dam 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.57 

Moulton TVA 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.84 

Athens TVA 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.47 

 

26

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Monrovia- West 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.07 

Guntersville 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.16 

Northwest Morgan County 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.59 

Pence 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.14 

Toney 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.67 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tennessee 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     Official 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fort Campbell

e

 

 

30/0915 

 

36 

 

 

3.01 

Camden Tower

e

 

 

30/0505 

 

52 

 

 

2.42 

Meigs EOC

e

 

 

30/1605 

 

36 

 

 

0.46 

Coker Creek

e

 

 

30/1540 

 

49 

 

 

1.50 

     Unofficial 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sewanee 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.58 

University of the South 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.49 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mississippi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

Official 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pascagoula (KPQL) 

 

 

29/0953 

38

i

44

i

 

 

 

Biloxi – Keesler AFB 
(KBIX) 

 

 

29/1400 

52

i

85

i

 

 

 

Gulfport (KGPT) 

 

 

29/1025 

40

i

55

i

 

 

 

Pascagoula (PSCM6) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12.16

 i

 

Green Pass (GRPL1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11.27

 i

 

Meridian (KNMM) 

29/2355 

964.4

i

29/2051 

 

70

i

 

 

 

Jackson (KJAN) 

29/2129 

973.3 

29/2014 

 

56 

 

 

3.93 

Columbus (KCBM) 

30/0355 

980.4 

30/0100 

 

50 

 

 

5.79 

Greenwood (KGWO) 

 

 

29/2153 

 

46 

 

 

 

Greenville (KGLH) 

30/0156 

992.8 

29/2223 

 

44 

 

 

2.08 

McComb (KMCB) 

29/1742 

972.2 

29/1742 

42 

56 

 

 

 

Sharkey Delta Road

e

 

 

30/0105 

 

44 

 

 

3.87 

Holmes

e

 

 

30/0105 

 

51 

 

 

5.48 

 

27

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Hancock

e

 

 

29/1605 

43 

74 

 

 

10.05 

Pike

e

 

 

29/1705 

34 

57 

 

 

 

Wausau

e

 

 

29/1705 

 

57

i

 

 

5.96 

Greene

e

 

 

29/1610 

 

57

i

 

 

 

Black Creek

e

 

 

29/1800 

43 

69 

 

 

7.64 

Neshoba

e

 

 

29/2110 

 

52 

 

 

6.53 

Bienville

e

 

 

29/2105 

 

48 

 

 

6.35 

Copiah

e

 

 

29/1705 

 

44 

 

 

 

Bude

e

 

 

29/1905 

 

43 

 

 

3.71 

Covington

e

 

 

29/2005 

 

47 

 

 

 

Marion

e

 

 

29/1605 

 

38 

 

 

8.19 

Winborn

e

 

 

30/0205 

 

35 

 

 

4.00 

Pass Christian 

 

 

 

 

 

27.8 

 

 

Long Beach 

 

 

 

 

 

25.7 

 

 

     

Unofficial  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wortham (Biloxi River) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26 

 

Hancock County EOC 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28 

 

Jackson County EOC, 
Pascagoula 

 

 

 

 

108

i

 

 

 

Pearl River County EOC, 
Poplarville 

 

 

 

 

117

i

 

 

 

Stennis Space Center 
(Texas Tech Univ. 10 m 
tower) 

 

 

29/1500 

59 

102 

 

 

 

Long Beach (amateur radio 
operator) 

 

 

29/1115 

 

106 

 

 

 

Pascagoula (Florida 
Coastal Monitoring 
Program (FCMP) tower) 

 

 

29/1549 

64 

 

 

 

 

Pascagoula (Univ. of South 
Alabama Mesonet site) 

29/1451 

976 

29/1413 

58 

66 

 

 

 

Agricola (Univ. of South 
Alabama Mesonet site) 

29/1649 

969 

29/1520 

29 

51 

 

 

 

Laurel  

 

 

29/1900 

 

96

i

 

 

 

Forrest 

 

 

29/1800 

 

87

i

 

 

 

Columbia 

29/1800 

951.0 

29/1800 

 

70 

 

 

 

 

28

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Starkville 

30/0300 

977.0 

30/0030 

 

66 

 

 

 

Columbia 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.20 

Ackerman (Tombigbee 
National Forest) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.52 

Noxapater 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.90 

North of Hattiesburg 
(Bowie Creek) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.35 

Conehatta 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.00 

Kosciusko (13 m SSE) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.80 

Brooklyn 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.78 

Philadelphia 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.72 

Sanford (Okatoma River) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.19 

Edinburg 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.15 

Pelahatchie 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.90 

Ofahoma 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.88 

Ethel 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.70 

Hattiesburg 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.18 

Kosciusko 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.27 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Louisiana

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

Official 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slidell (KASD) 

29/1400 

954.4

i

29/1243 

32

i

44

i

 

 

 

Bootheville (KBVE) 

 

 

28/2137 

26

i

39

i

 

 

 

New Orleans Intl Airport 
(KMSY) 

 

 

29/0305 

29

i

38

i

 

 

 

New Orleans Intl Airport 
LLWAS 30-ft tower 

 

 

29/1405 

 

64 

 

 

 

New Orleans Intl Airport 
LLWAS 120-ft tower 

 

 

29/1340 

 

85 

 

 

 

New Orleans Lakefront 
Airport (KNEW) 

29/1300 

958.4

i

29/1153 

60

i

75

i

 

 

 

Tallulah (KTVR) 

 

 

29/1834 

 

48

i

 

 

 

Slidell NWS 

29/1438 

934.1 

 

 

 

 

 

11.63 

Ponte a la Hache (BGNL1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.14

 i

 

 

29

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Lake Maurepas (MAUL1) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.05

 i

 

Baton Rouge (KBTR) 

29/1553 

984.4 

29/1710 

39 

43 

 

 

 

Big Branch NWR

e

 

 

29/1620 

 

50 

 

 

14.92 

SE St. Tammany Parish, 
~10 mi SE of Slidell 

 

 

 

 

 

16.0 

 

 

SE St. Bernard Parish, near 
Alluvial City 

 

 

 

 

 

18.7 

 

 

Mississippi River Gulf 
Outlet, eastern New 
Orleans 

 

 

 

 

 

15.5 

 

 

New Orleans Lakefront 
Airport 

 

 

 

 

 

11.8 

 

 

 

    Unofficial 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buras (Univ. of LA-
Monroe 2 m tower) 

29/1116 

920.2 

29/1021 

73 

93 

 

 

 

Slidell  (videographer at 
Memorial Hospital) 

29/1505 

931 

29/1435 

 

est 105 

 

 

 

NASA Michoud Assembly 
Facility – gage 1 

29/1404 

949.9 

29/1100 

 

est 84 

 

 

 

NASA Michoud Assembly 
Facility – gage 2 

 

 

29/1415 

 

est 107 

 

 

 

Eastern New Orleans – Air 
Products and Chemicals 
Facility 

 

 

29/1400 

 

est 104 

 

 

 

Belle Chase NAS  
(FCMP tower) 

 

 

29/1427 

68 

89 

 

 

 

Galliano (FCMP tower) 

 

 

29/0936 

67 

83 

 

 

 

Slidell Airport (Texas Tech 
Univ. 10 m tower) 

 

 

29/1500 

61 

87 

 

 

 

Vacherie (Texas Tech 
Univ. 10 m tower) 

 

 

29/1200 

48 

64 

 

 

 

Grand Isle 

 

 

 

 

 

12 

 

 

Port Fourchon 

 

 

 

 

 

8 

 

 

Gretna 

29/1400 

950.6 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baton Rouge – Ben Hur 
Farm

h

 

 

29/1438 

43 

54 

 

 

2.83 

Baton Rouge – Burden 
Plantation

h

 

 

29/1404 

34 

48 

 

 

2.96 

Port Sulphur

h

29/1000 

962.2

i

29/0937 

75

i

88

i

 

 

 

Franklinton

h

29/1615 

953.7 

29/1915 

43 

69 

 

 

5.03 

 

30

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Houma

h

29/1244 

976.6 

29/1100 

44 

60 

 

 

3.68 

Hammond

h

29/1602 

965.3 

29/1644 

48 

66 

 

 

4.61 

Manchac

h

29/1558 

960.9 

29/1559 

59 

74 

 

 

5.55 

Livingston South

h

29/1637 

974.5 

29/1432 

35 

49 

 

 

2.68 

Livingston West

h

29/1608 

972.8 

29/1451 

 

42 

 

 

2.21 

St. Gabriel

h

29/1436 

979.5 

29/1643 

44 

53 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buoys/C-MAN/NOS Sites 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Settlement Point (SPGF1) 
(26.7ºN 79.0ºW) 

25/1100 

1004.2 

25/1050 

36 

45 

 

 

 

Fowey Rocks (FWYF1) 
(25.6ºN 80.1ºW) 

26/0000 

997.8  

26/2310 

57 

69 

 

 

 

Virginia Key NOS 
(VAKF1) 
(25.7ºN 80.2ºW) 

25/2254 

990.2 

25/2330 

55 

67 

1.0 

3.2 

 

Vaca Key NOS (VCAF1) 
(24.7ºN 81.1ºW) 

26/0724 

1000.5 

25/2200 

27 

41 

 

2.0 

 

Sombrero Key (SMKF1) 
(24.6ºN 81.1ºW) 

26/0900 

1000.6 

26/0900 

58 

69 

 

 

 

Long Key (LONF1) 
(24.8ºN 80.9ºW) 

26/0700 

1000.2 

26/0820 

45 

60 

 

2.1 

 

Molasses Reef (MLRF1) 
(25.0ºN 80.4ºW) 

26/0500 

1001.7 

26/0600 

53 

67 

 

 

 

NW Florida Bay (NFBF1) 
(25.1ºN 81.1ºW) 

26/0554 

994.2

i

26/0654 

51

i

60

i

 

2.5 

 

Dry Tortugas  (DRYF1) 
(24.6ºN 82.9ºW) 

26/2000 

974.4 

26/2000 

70 

91 

 

 

 

Sand Key (SANF1) 
(24.5ºN 81.9ºW) 

26/1500 

999.7 

26/1530 

54 

67 

 

 

 

Key West NOS (KYWF1) 
(24.6ºN 81.8ºW) 

26/1300 

999.8 

26/1818 

40 

52 

 

1.4 

 

Naples Pier NOS (NPSF1) 
(26.1ºN 81.8ºW) 

26/1000 

1002.6 

26/0700 

18 

32 

2.5 

3.0 

 

Buoy 42014 
(25.3ºN 82.2ºW) 

26/1429 

977.9 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buoy 42003 
(26.0ºN 85.9ºW) 

28/0350 

987.8

i

28/0230 

57

i

78

i

 

 

 

Buoy 42001 

28/1950 

981.3 

28/2030 

48 

64 

 

 

 

 

31

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

(25.8ºN 89.7ºW) 

Cedar Key (CDRF1) 
(29.1ºN 83.3ºW) 

28/0900 

1007.8 

28/2220 

30 

37 

2.07 

5.1 

 

Tyndall AFB Tower 
(SGOF1) (29.4ºN 84.5ºW) 

29/1000 

1005.5 

29/1000 

35 

42 

 

 

 

Panama City Beach NOS 
(PCBF1) (30.2ºN 85.9ºW) 

29/2024 

1002.3 

29/1448 

38

i

48

i

 

4.2 

 

Pensacola NOS (PCLF1) 
(30.4ºN 87.2ºW) 

29/1300 

995.7

i

29/1700 

37

i

49

i

 

3.1 

 

Buoy 42036 
(28.5ºN 84.5ºW) 

28/0950 

1003.7 

29/1050 

29 

35 

 

 

 

Buoy 42039 
(28.8ºN 86.0ºW) 

29/0950 

1000.2 

29/0850 

37 

47 

 

 

 

Dauphin Island (DPIA1) 
(30.3ºN 88.1ºW) 

29/1505 

986.1 

29/1350 

66 

89 

 

6.2 

 

Buoy 42040 
(29.2ºN 88.2ºW) 

29/0950 

979.3 

29/1010 

55 

72 

 

 

 

Buoy 42067 
(30.0ºN 88.7ºW) 

 

 

29/1130 

60

i

76

i

 

 

 

Buoy 42007 (30.1ºN 
88.8ºW; went adrift 
~29/0500 UTC) 

29/1450 

927.4 

29/1535 

56 

74 

 

 

 

Waveland NOS (WAVM6) 
(30.3ºN 89.4ºW) 

29/0936 

986.5

i

29/0936 

44

i

54

i

 

 

 

SW Pass (NOS tide gauge) 
(28.9ºN 89.4ºW) 

29/0948 

921.6 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Southwest Pass (BURL1) 
(28.9ºN 89.4ºW) 

29/0500 

979.7

i

29/0420 

72

i

88

i

 

 

 

Grand Isle (GDIL1) 
(29.3ºN 90.0ºW) 

29/1100 

944.3 

29/0820 

76

i

99

i

 

 

 

Bayou LaBranch NOS 
(LABL1) 
(30.1ºN 90.4ºW) 

29/1130 

976.9

i

29/1130 

43

i

61

i

 

 

 

Bayou Gauche NOS 
(BYGL1) 
(29.8ºN 90.4ºW) 

29/1042 

975.4

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

Isle Dernieres (ILDL1)

f

(29.1ºN 90.5ºW) 

29/1100 

968.4

i

29/1000 

67

i

84

i

 

 

 

Mid-Lake Pontchartrain 
NWS Gauge 

 

 

29/1520 

68 

86 

 

6.8 

 

Tambour Bay (TAML1)

g

(29.2ºN 90.7ºW) 

29/1100 

972.9

i

29/1000 

55

i

69

i

 

 

 

LUMCOM Marine Center 
(LUML1) (29.3ºN 90.7ºW) 

29/1100 

970.5

i

29/0800 

43

i

54

i

 

 

 

 

32

Minimum Sea 

Level Pressure 

Maximum Surface 

Wind Speed 

Location 

Storm 

surge 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC) 

Press. 

(mb) 

Date/ 

time 

(UTC)

a

Sustained 

(kt)

b

Gust 

(kt) 

(ft)

c

Storm 

tide 

(ft)

d

Total 

rain 

(in) 

Salt Point (SLPL1)

 f

(29.5ºN 91.6ºW)  

29/1000 

990.3

i

29/1000 

33

i

38

i

 

 

 

Marsh Island (MRSL1)

 f

(29.4ºN 92.1ºW) 

29/1100 

993.7 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buoy 42038 
(27.4ºN 92.6ºW) 

29/0450 

996.6 

29/0030 

32 

41 

 

 

 

 

a

  Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.

 

b

  Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports 

are 2 min.; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

 

c

  Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

 

d

  Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level). 

e

  Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) 

f

  Louisiana State University (LSU) Coastal Studies Institute Station 

g

  Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium site 

h

  LSU Ag Center site 

i

  Incomplete data 

j

  South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) site 

est: estimated 

 

33

Table 4. 

Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Katrina, 

23-30 August 2005.  Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in 
parentheses.  Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.  
Verification includes the depression stage, but does not include the extratropical stage.  Models 
not available at the time the official forecasts were made are indicated by (*). 
 

Forecast Period (h) 

Forecast 

Technique 

12 

24 

36 

48 

72 

96 

120 

CLP5 

  35 (27) 

  81 (25) 

 148 (23)   222 (21)   379 (17)   521 (13)   690 ( 9) 

GFNI 

  27 (25) 

  45 (23) 

  

59 (21) 

  

73 (19) 

 149 (14)   194 (10)   196 ( 6) 

GFDI 

  31 (27) 

  55 (25) 

  75 (23) 

  97 (21) 

 147 (17)   184 (13)   165 ( 9) 

GFDL

*

  27 (26) 

  53 (25) 

  72 (23) 

  

92 (21) 

 133 (17)   168 (13)   188 ( 9) 

GFDN

*

  34 (24) 

  50 (24) 

  

60 (22) 

  71 (20) 

 133 (15)   183 (11)   193 ( 7) 

GFSI 

  27 (25) 

  49 (23) 

  75 (21) 

 104 (19)   191 (15)   331 (11)   493 ( 7) 

GFSO

*

  26 (26) 

  43 (24) 

  71 (22) 

  94 (20) 

 165 (16) 

 290 (12)   489 ( 8) 

AEMI 

  27 (25) 

  46 (23) 

  67 (21) 

  91 (19) 

 152 (15) 

 254 (11)   367 ( 7) 

NGPI 

  27 (27) 

  48 (25) 

  72 (23) 

  96 (21) 

 161 (17)   194 (13) 

 242 ( 9) 

NGPS

*

  34 (26) 

  54 (24) 

  80 (22) 

  96 (20) 

 143 (16)   179 (12) 

 

203 ( 8) 

UKMI 

  

21 (23) 

  

33 (22) 

  53 (21) 

  85 (19) 

 154 (15) 

 263 (11)   380 ( 7) 

UKM

*

  

  28 (13) 

  

28 (12) 

  40 (11) 

  67 (10) 

 128 ( 8) 

 

208 ( 6) 

 324 ( 4) 

A98E 

  33 (27) 

  58 (25) 

  81 (23) 

 126 (21)   238 (17)   346 (13)   411 ( 9) 

A9UK 

  32 (13) 

  63 (12) 

  96 (11) 

 129 (10)   209 ( 8) 

 

 

BAMD 

  26 (27) 

  45 (25) 

  65 (23) 

  

86 (21) 

 111 (17) 

 

197 (13) 

 326 ( 9) 

BAMM 

  31 (27) 

  61 (25) 

  86 (23) 

 108 (21) 

 143 (17) 

 229 (13)   398 ( 9) 

BAMS 

  59 (25) 

 109 (23)   138 (21)   158 (19)   185 (16)   255 (12)   408 ( 9) 

CONU 

  

21 (27) 

  37 (25) 

  54 (23) 

  78 (21) 

 148 (17) 

 

196 (13) 

 260 ( 9) 

GUNA 

  

21 (23) 

  38 (22) 

  57 (21) 

  84 (19) 

 156 (15) 

 229 (11)   307 ( 7) 

FSSE 

  

21 (22) 

  38 (22) 

  61 (20) 

  95 (18) 

 160 (14) 

 221 (10)   253 ( 6) 

OFCL 

  24 (27) 

  42 (25) 

  64 (23) 

  96 (21) 

 174 (17)   213 (13)   234 ( 9) 

NHC Official 

(1995-2004 

mean) 

42  

(3400) 

75 

(3116) 

107 

(2848) 

138 

(2575) 

202 

(2117) 

236 

(649) 

310 

(535) 

 

34

Table 5. 

Coastal watch and warning summary for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005. 

 

Date/Time (UTC) 

Action 

Location 

23 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Warning 

issued 

Central Bahamas to NW 

Bahamas 

24 / 0300 

Tropical Storm Watch issued 

Seven Mile Bridge to Vero 

Beach 

24 / 1500 

Tropical Storm Watch 

modified to 

Seven Mile Bridge to Florida 

City 

24 / 1500 

Tropical Storm Warning and 

Hurricane Watch issued 

Florida City to Vero Beach 

24 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Watch issued 

Vero Beach to Titusville 

24 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Warning/ 

Hurricane Watch  issued 

Lake Okeechobee 

25 / 0300 

Tropical Storm 

Warning/Hurricane Watch  

changed to Hurricane Warning

Florida City to Vero Beach  

and Lake Okeechobee 

25 / 0900 

Tropical Storm Watch Issued 

Florida City to Englewood 

including Florida Bay 

25 / 1500 

Tropical Storm Warning 

modified to  

Grand Bahama, Bimini, and 
the Berry Islands in the NW 

Bahamas  

25 / 2100 

Hurricane Warning modified 

to 

Florida City to Jupiter Inlet 

including Lake Okeechobee 

25 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Warning 

issued 

Jupiter Inlet to Vero Beach,  

Key West to Ocean Reef & 

Florida City to Longboat Key 

including Florida Bay 

25 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Watch issued 

Longboat Key to Anclote Key 

25 / 2300 

Tropical Storm Warning 

discontinued 

Grand Bahama, Bimini, and 
the Berry Islands in the NW 

Bahamas 

26 / 0300 

Tropical Storm Watch 

discontinued 

Vero Beach to Titusville 

26 / 0300 

Tropical Storm Warning 

discontinued 

Jupiter Inlet to Vero Beach 

26 / 0500 

Hurricane Warning Changed 

to Tropical Storm Warning  

Deerfield Beach to Florida 

City  

26 / 0500 

Hurricane Warning 

discontinued 

Deerfield Beach to Jupiter and 

Lake Okeechobee 

 

35

 

36

26 / 0500 

Tropical Storm Warning 

modified to 

Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef 

including Florida Bay and 

Florida City to Longboat Key 

26 / 1500 

Tropical Storm Warning 

modified to 

Florida City to Longboat Key, 

all the Florida Keys and 

Florida Bay 

26 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Watch 

discontinued 

All 

26 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Warning 

discontinued 

Florida City to Longboat Key 

27 / 0900 

Tropical Storm Warning 

modified to 

Dry Tortugas to Seven Mile 

Bridge 

27 / 1500 

Tropical Storm Warning 

modified to 

Dry Tortugas to Key West 

27 / 1500 

Hurricane Watch issued 

Morgan City to Pearl River 

27 / 2100 

Tropical Storm Warning 

discontinued 

All 

27 / 2100 

Hurricane Watch modified 

Intracoastal City to FL/AL 

border 

28 / 0300 

Hurricane Warning issued 

Morgan City to FL/AL border 

including Lake Pontchartrain 

28 / 0300 

Tropical Storm Warning 

issued 

FL/AL border to Destin 

28 / 0300 

Tropical Storm Warning 

issued 

Intracoastal City to Morgan 

City 

28 / 0300 

Hurricane Watch modified to 

FL/AL border to Destin 

28 / 0900 

Tropical Storm Warning 

issued 

Destin to Indian Pass and 

Intracoastal City to Cameron 

29 / 1500 

Hurricane Watch discontinued 

All 

29 / 2100 

Hurricane Warning changed to 

Tropical Storm Warning 

Pearl River to FL/AL border 

including Lake Pontchartrain 

29 / 2100 

Hurricane and Tropical Storm 

Warnings discontinued 

Cameron to Pearl River and 

FL/AL border to Destin  

30 / 0300 

Tropical Storm Warning 

discontinued 

All 

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 

20

25

30

35

40

-95

-90

-85

-80

-75

-70

Hurricane Katrina

23-31 August

Hurricane Katrina 

23-30 August 2005 

 

37

Hurricane

Tropical Storm

Tropical Dep.

Extratropical

Subtr. Storm

Subtr. Dep.

00 UTC Pos/Date

12 UTC Position

Low / Wave

PPP  Min. press (mb)

25

24

31

30

29

28

27

26

902 mb

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

920 mb

984 mb

928 mb

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 1. 

Best track positions for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005. 

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

8/23

8/25

8/27

8/29

8/31

Hurricane Katrina

August 2005

BEST TRACK

Sat (TAFB)

Sat (SAB)

Sat (AFWA)

Obj T-Num

AC (sfc)

AC (flt>sfc)

AC (DVK P>W)

Surface

Drop (sfc)

Drop (LLM xtrp)

Drop (MBL xtrp)

Wi

n

d

 Sp

ee

d

 (kt

)

Date (Month/Day)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 2. 

Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30  

 

 

August 2005.  Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for  

 

 

observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively.  Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10 m winds  

 

 

(sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM),  and 

 

 

from the sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). 

 

38

900

910

920

930

940

950

960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1020

8/24

8/25

8/26

8/27

8/28

8/29

8/30

8/31

Hurricane Katrina

August 2005

BEST TRACK

Sat (TAFB)

Sat (SAB)

Sat (AFWA)

Obj T-Num

AC (sfc)

Surface

Pr

ess

ur

e (mb)

Date (Month/Day)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 3. 

Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August  

  2005. 

 

39

 

 
Figure 4.   

Radar reflectivity image from the Miami WSR-88D radar at 0100 UTC 26 August 2005, as the center of Hurricane  

 

 

Katrina passed over northern Miami-Dade County, Florida and near the NWS Miami Weather Forecast Office /   

 

 

National Hurricane Center (located where denoted by the ‘x’ labelled “NHC”). 

 

40

 

 
 

A 

 

 

 

 

 

B 

 

 

 

 

 

C 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
Figure 5. 

Passive microwave imagery from the NASA TRMM satellite depicting the eyewall replacement cycle in Hurricane 
Katrina on 27-28 August 2005, at (a) 0420 UTC 27 August, (b), 2052 UTC 27 August, and (c) 0324 UTC 28 August 
2005.  All images are from the 85GHz channel in which ice scattering reveals areas of deep convection displayed in the 
red shades.  Images courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). 

 

41

 

 
Figure 6. 

GOES-12 visible image of Hurricane Katrina over the central Gulf of Mexico at 1745 UTC 28 August 2005, near the 
time of its peak intensity of 150 kt. 

 

42

 
 

  

 
 
 
A) 2000 UTC 28 August 

 

 

 

 

 

B) 1000 UTC 29 August 

 
 

 
 
 
Figure 7. 

Airborne Doppler radar-derived wind speed cross sections obtained from a NOAA WP-3D Hurricane Hunter aircraft at 
approximately (a) 2000 UTC 28 August 2005 and (b) 1000 UTC 29 August 2005.  Radial distance from the center of 
the hurricane increases to the right, and both cross sections extend toward the east from the center of the hurricane.  
Wind speeds are in meters per second (m/s) as indicated by color shades with legend beneath the diagrams.  Wind 
speeds derived from the radar extend down to about the 300 m level.  Note the broad and elevated wind maximum in 
the 2-4 km layer on 29 August (centered near the 700 mb flight level), which was not present on 28 August when the 
maximum winds were concentrated at the more typical location near the top of the boundary layer (~500 m).  The 65-
69 m/s winds in the 300-500 m layer in panel (b), in the isolated area at a radius of 50-55 km from the center, 
correspond to no more than about 105 kt winds at the surface, using an average adjustment of the mean boundary layer 
winds to the surface.  Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division (HRD).

 

 

43