Mysterious Blight Destroys Afghan Poppy Harvest

The Taliban’s public relations strategy against the offensives includes trying to convince local residents that Western troops will destroy their poppy crops, and in recent weeks Afghan farmers have started blaming the American and NATO militaries for spreading the disease, United Nations officials say. In many places, the blight has wiped out more than half of individual poppy fields.

The American military — which has decided that widespread eradication can be counterproductive to winning over Afghans — emphatically denies any involvement, and United Nations officials say the disease is naturally occurring.

Besides fueling the propaganda war, the blight might also help the insurgency by giving prices a boost. Reduced production is causing prices for fresh opium to soar as much as 60 percent, after years of declining prices, according to the executive director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Antonio Maria Costa.

While there is no evidence that the disease will return next year, the rising prices may make it harder to persuade farmers to give up the crop, he said.

The price increase is also raising by hundreds of millions of dollars the value of opium stockpiles held by traffickers and insurgents. The opium trade is believed to provide the Taliban with a large portion of their budget.

The disease is expected to wipe out as much as 2,500 tons of opium production, mostly in Helmand, Kandahar and Oruzgan Provinces, Mr. Costa said in an interview in New York.

The United States and NATO have been sending tens of thousands of new troops into Helmand and Kandahar in an attempt to wrest control of Taliban strongholds. Some NATO officials fear that if the military operations do not show significant results this year, President Obama’s strategy in Afghanistan could be doomed.

Before the effects of the disease became clear in recent weeks, United Nations officials had expected this year’s harvest to be little changed from last year’s haul of 6,900 tons. Afghanistan produces 90 percent of the world’s opium.

The disease is likely to have been caused by an aphid, but it could also be the result of a fungus or virus, Mr. Costa said. A similar ailment struck poppy crops in northern Afghanistan four years ago.

He said that Afghan farmers’ fears that Western forces spread the disease were without foundation. While farmers were suffering, he said that if the increased prices persisted, they would deliver “a very significant windfall” for drug barons and insurgents who control thousands of tons of opium stored in Afghanistan and other locations.

A crucial part of the new American and NATO military strategy has been a soft-glove approach to opium cultivation, which dominates the economy of much of southern Afghanistan. The military has abandoned tougher measures like widespread eradication, and now troops are trying to induce poppy farmers to switch to other crops by using financial incentives.

American military officials who have analyzed the issue agree with the United Nations that the disease could reduce yields from this year’s opium harvest by as much as one-third, said Capt. John Kirby of the Navy, a spokesman for Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“Would we like to see the poppy trade go away eventually — yes,” Captain Kirby said. “Would we do it this way? Absolutely not. This crop loss is a natural occurrence and absolutely in no way connected to the United States or NATO militaries.”