There were twenty-seven new polls since last week's update:

I'm not going to spend a whole lot of time discussing the gubernatorial elections, because I plan to do that tomorrow, but I will leave you with a few thoughts to ponder and the latest polling projections:

I'll first address the obvious; New Jersey is very close and Virginia isn't. McDonnell (R) could win by 20% while Corzine (D) or Christie (R) could win by 20 votes. There is no automatic recount in New Jersey, but any candidate can request a recount within 15 days of the election.

Secondly, Sarah Palin has injected herself into the New Jersey fray with a statement on facebook:

Despite what candidate Chris Daggett is claiming, I have never contacted him or his campaign. I have never asked him to drop out of the NJ Governor's race. Now, if a politician is going to play loose with facts like this, the electorate needs to know it.

So, to the good people of New Jersey, please know that Daggett's claims are false. I?ve never even suggested he should drop out of the race. But, come to think of it?

- Sarah Palin

Source: Sarah Palin on Facebook.com

Nobody inclined to vote for Daggett (I) gives two shits what Palin thinks, about anything. In fact her innuendo, for Dagget to drop out, would definitely not help Christie. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll of New Jersey asked which second candidate Daggett voter's preferred; Corzine led by 10%, 39 to 29. Another recent poll by Public Policy Polling (D) made the same determination. Daggett is helping Christie at this point, but Palin is too stupid to realize this.

Obama also campaigned for Corzine over the weekend. The cover of today's New York Times prominently displayed Obama and Corzine in a traditional rally pose. This is definitely positive exposure for Corzine and could translate into votes, although New Jersey does not have same day registration.

And finally, the campaign fundraising reports from New Jersey I promised last week:

                 Corzine (D)     Christie (R)     Daggett (I)
Receipts      $ 24,057,600.20  $ 11,720,288.00  $ 1,312,632.00
Expenditures  $ 23,645,190.76  $  8,804,745.66  $ 1,161,907.13
Cash on Hand  $    412,409.44  $  2,915,542.34  $   150,724.87

Submission Date: 10/23/2009

Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission

Corzine clearly won the fundrace, but will it translate to a victory tomorrow evening?

I'm waiting until tomorrow to post the final projections as there are likely polls in the field today that will be released tomorrow. I'll have updated graphs, as well as my final thoughts before the polls close tomorrow at 8 PM ET in New Jersey and 7 PM ET in Virginia.

There are also a number of other elections tomorrow with intriguing ramifications. There are two elections to fill US House vacancies, CA-10 and NY-23. NY-23 is a Republican district with three two major candidates after the moderate Republican withdrew and endorsed the Democratic candidate to spite the National Republican Party. CA-10 is a solidly Democratic district with a PVI of D+11; this distinct will be won by Democrat Lt Gov. John Garamendi.

A number of other states also have referendums and propositions on the ballot.

More tomorrow.

Nine new polls as the elections loom a week away:

I know I mentioned this last week, but the New Jersey graph looks almost identical to the 2008 Minnesota Senate Election and the addition of a Daggett (I) trendline to the New Jersey Graph below solidifies my point:

Christie's (R) decline seems to be linearly associated with Daggett's surge while Corzine's (D) support has remained consistent. The most recent sample points do however illustrate a departure from this correlation; Dagget's and Christie's numbers have declined in the last week while Corzine's have increased. Christie's earlier support seems to have migrated to Daggett, and now that Corzine is back in the race, some Daggett voters are shifting to their second choice, Corzine.

In the next week I expect a minor Christie resurgence, and a solidification of Daggett's support around the 15% threshold. I expect both major party candidates to head into next Tuesday's election hovering around the 40% mark.

Virginia is another story, Deeds (D) has all but lost:

Deeds was dominated in the money race, and had perception issues during the debates; the last of which occurred on Tuesday, October 20th:

Deeds and McDonnell were generally polite, although they interrupted each other several times in a series of feisty exchanges made possible by an open-ended format.

When the moderator asked Deeds which taxes he would support increasing, McDonnell tried to jump in: "I can answer that!"

"No, you can't!" Deeds responded, glaring at McDonnell before saying that he would consider raising any tax tied to transportation funding.

Still, the lively 60-minute debate appeared to do little to change the dynamics of a race in which Deeds trails McDonnell in public opinion polls, fundraising and advertising. The questions covered mostly familiar ground, and there seemed to be no game-changing moments.

Source: Washington Post

The last pre-election fundraising reports were due on Wednesday; the highlights are below:

                 Deeds (D)       McDonnell (R)
Receipts      $ 16,264,941.15   $ 21,466,447.67
Expenditures  $ 15,327,168.54   $ 19,633,513.91
Cash on Hand  $    937,772.61   $  1,832,933.76

Filing Period: 10/01/2009 - 10/21/2009

Source: Virginia State Board of Elections

Deeds was basically defeated in every aspect of the campaign, and his polling numbers reflect these various deficiencies. Our mathematical projection gives Deeds less than a 1% chance of victory, and from a purely logical standpoint, this seems realistic. Deeds has lost, unless something absurd happens.

New Jersey also conducted their final debate last week on Thursday, October 22nd:

The third and final debate in the tightening New Jersey governor's race turned into something of a free-for-all on Thursday night as Gov. Jon S. Corzine tried to portray the state's battered economy as poised for a slingshotlike recovery, while his Republican rival, Christopher J. Christie, depicted him as lamentably out of touch.

But the two were constantly harassed by a pesky Christopher J. Daggett, the independent candidate, who pointed to a new poll that showed him within striking distance, and who taunted Mr. Corzine and Mr. Christie over property taxes, corruption and the environment.

The hourlong debate, broadcast on the jazz station WBGO in Newark, broke little new ground, but allowed the three men to deliver their closing arguments.

Source: New York Times

The latest fundraising filings from New Jersey have not yet been posted, although the 11 day deadline has passed. Hopefully the data will be available next week. In the meantime you can read through last period's reports at the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission. Corzine bankrolled his own campaign, while Christie and Daggett relied upon matching public funds. As a result Corzine had the capability to out raise his opponents, which he has done up to this point and I see no reason why this trend when end with the release of the new data.

More in a week for our probably last polling update. I'll also, hopefully, have a few other surprises.

A number of polls out of New Jersey, and a single from Virgina:

Based upon the frequency of new surveys, most pollsters seem to have given up on the Virginia Gubernatorial election. Deeds (D) has led in just two polls since January, and currently trails by about seven points. Corzine, on the other hand, has done a much more effect job of closing his summer gap.

Both states had debates in the last week, but they're unlikely to make or break November's voting. I'll start with the Virginia debate which took place last Monday evening. The debate appears to have been fairly boring, with little fanfare. Bloomberg provided a pretty good round up, from which I've excerpted below:

During the debate, McDonnell (R) sought to tie Deeds (D) to the push by the Obama administration to reduce emissions blamed for global warming through a limited number of permits that companies could trade and sell. McDonnell said the plan would raise utility costs by $1,700 per family, a claim that the Annenberg Public Policy Center's Factcheck.org has said is "not true."

Deeds said McDonnell "wants this campaign to be decided on issues he's going to lie about."

Source: Bloomberg

The issue of taxes seemed to have been largely ignored as was McDonnell's old graduate thesis. The focus of the debate was the state's economy; Deeds stated that Clinton and Obama better served the state's economy while McDonnell stated that the Bush's had done a better job. It's interesting that McDonnell explicitly stated that he support Bush era policies even though the state in which he is seeking has office voted against Bush's party for the first time in 44 years.

The New Jersey candidates participated in a recorded debate last Friday, which was later broadcast on Saturday. The New York Times published an excellent synopsis of the debate:

Gov. Jon S. Corzine (D) chastised his two rivals (Christopher J. Christie, the Republican, and Christopher J. Daggett, the independent) for "trying to pretend that the recession is only in New Jersey," and warned that Mr. Christie would offer tax cuts to wealthy individuals and big businesses at the expense of middle-class families.

Mr. Daggett criticized the governor's policies on taxes and spending and ridiculed Mr. Christie for proposing a variety of tax cuts without explaining what budget cuts he would use to pay for them.

...

Mr. Christie, who focused most of his critique on Mr. Corzine, was not about to be upstaged by Mr. Daggett, who put in a strong performance in the first debate and has seen his poll numbers rise while Mr. Christie has seen his drop.

Source: NY Times

Corzine appears to be aptly positioned to take the lead heading into the final weeks as Dagget continues to poll strongly. It's neck and neck, but Christie is trending in the wrong direction. The New Jersey race strongly mirrors Minnesota's 2008 Senate contest based upon the trend lines and the emergence of a legitimate third party candidate.

There is tentatively one more Virginia debate, and the potential for two more New Jersey debates; the next of which will be on Thursday.

More in a week.

Numerous polls from this week, and a few last releases from last:

Nothing fundamentally changed; Corzine (D) still modestly trails while, Deeds (D) remains further behind:

I first want to talk about the upcoming debate in Virginia. The debate started at 8 PM ET today, and is sponsored by the League of Women Voters and AARP. If you live in the Virginia viewing area, the debate should be broadcast on the NBC affiliate.

This is a big stage for Deeds; he needs to directly address the issue of taxing as it relates to his transportation plan. He stumbled last debate and it appears to have hurt him in the polls. He must clarify his position if he still hopes to emerge victorious in just three short weeks.

Moving North up the Atlantic Coast, the Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey debated last Thursday. NJ.com has a brisk recap if you're interested. The discussion was apparently very heated and at times focused on Christie's (R) heavy set physique. I don't think this debate matters in any way shape or form. It's an off year election where most of the voting population probably hasn't tuned into the top of the ticket debates, to think that the Lieutenant Governor's debate affects public opinion is probably a step too far.

Then on Saturday, the New Jersey Star-Ledger endorsed their candidate:

The Star-Ledger today endorses independent candidate Chris Daggett and recommends his election as the next governor of New Jersey.

The newspaper's decision is less a rejection of Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie than a repudiation of the parties they represent, both of which have forfeited any claim to the trust and confidence of the people of New Jersey. They share responsibility for the state's current plight.

Source: Star-Ledger Editorial Board at NJ.com

This is excellent news for Corzine, perhaps better than had he himself been endorsed. Dagget (I) appears to be drawing a fair amount of support away from Christie, while Corzine's baseline has remained steady. Dagget's (I) support seems to have consolidated after his esteemed debate performance on the first of the month. The next NJ debate takes place this Friday, October 16th. The three leading candidates will again take the stage, but this time at William Patterson University. The debate will be broadcast on TV and online through the NJ Network (PBS).

I'll try and update the graphs to reflect Dagget's numbers but I'm not making any promises. More in a week.

The latest round of Virginia polling accounts for September 18th's gubernatorial debate, while New Jersey's candidates hosted their first debate last Thursday:

The current NJ projection will likely change when the public reaction from the first debate is factored into the polling; but for now Christie (R) still leads:

I haven't watched the entire NJ debate, but a complete video is available [NJ Network] as well as a summary from the Washington Post. From what I have watched, the following exchange, as summarized by the Washington Post, reflects the dynamics of each candidate and the three main choices New Jerseyans will have come November 3rd:

If the race turned only on Corzine's record, he would probably lose. But Christie has vulnerabilities as well. He is a former U.S. attorney who made his reputation prosecuting politicians of both parties, and he has used those skills to prosecute the case against the incumbent. But he has yet to offer a credible plan to solve the budget woes.

The next governor will face a budget deficit estimated at $8 billion. Christie has pledged he will not raise taxes, but cannot say how he would balance the budget without new revenue. He has identified possible areas, to cut but they fall short of what is necessary to get the job done. Corzine and independent candidate Chris Daggett scoffed at Christie's remedies.

"Mr. Christie has no plan," Corzine said. "It's a fantasy." Daggett, who would cut some taxes but also significantly expand the state sales tax, chimed in: "It's easy to criticize when you have no plan of your own. . . . The tooth fairy is not going to come to solve this problem."

Source: Washington Post

The New Jersey election seems to have been reduced to the following question: Would you rather stay on the current path, or try something completely new and unquantifiable? In the 2008 presidential election, New Jerseyans choose the later, by electing Obama, but will they remain loyal to the incumbent Democrat?

This week we've seen a big change in Virginia polling. Last week the race was within two points, now there's a thirteen point spread:

The National Review Online seems to attribute this sudden rise by McDonnell (R), and subsequent decline by Deeds (D) to a post-debate press conference. During the debate Deeds stated that he would "not raise taxes" to pay for his transportation plan, but afterward he appeared to flounder on the issue as evidenced in the following video:

Creigh Deeds simply needed to take a position on whether to raise taxes to pay for his transportation plan, and he imploded. I don't think either position would have necessarily hurt him politically, but choosing and then changing his position definitely wasn't a good idea. The next debate is October 12th, and he better be prepared to clarify his position, by simply choosing a position, or he will lose this election.

More in a week.

The polling from New Jersey coalesced during the past week, while Virginia's numbers still seem to be transitioning:

Corzine (D) still trails by about seven points, but the last time the trend lines were parallel he was down by ten; Corzine has consolidated a net gain of three points in the last month. He will need to increase this rate of change within the next thirty-six days to win, but the race is clearly beginning to shift toward the Democrat in typical New Jersey fashion:

The single new poll from Virginia simply serves to confirm the trend of the previous week. Deeds (D) is down by about two with a month left and anything could happen; but for the moment, McDonnell (R) has the advantage:

This week I want to focus on the debate schedule for each gubernatorial election; I'll begin with Virginia.

The Deeds and McDonnell campaigns have been pushing for various changes to the debate schedule, but for the moment there looks to be four debates scheduled. Two have already happened, but more on that later. Here's the current schedule:

Date                  Location           Recap
July 27th          VA Bar Assoc        WA-Times
September 12th*   Radio One Forum
September 17th      Fairfax COC     Times-Dispatch
October 12th         LWV/AARP
October ??             WSLS

[*] Appears to have been canceled.
Source: Bob McDonnell Press Release

Both Virginia campaigns are still debating about the debates, so things may change going forward, but for now this is the schedule. Now onto New Jersey and their more organized debate schedule.

There are two debates sanctioned by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission and potentially two more commissioned by the New Jersey Media markets:

Date             Sponsor        Location
October 1st      NJ ELNC      NJ Network TV
October 16th     NJ ELNC      Will Pat. Univ
October 22nd     WBGO FM          Radio
October ???*     ABC Affil      TV 7-8 PM

[*] Negotiations ongoing, Corzine (D) has
    not committed.
Source: NJ.com

Independent candidate Chris Dagget will also participate in all debates held within New Jersey. There will also be a debate between the Lieutenant Governor candidates on October 8th sponsored by the Leadership New Jersey Consortium.

If you live in either New Jersey or Virginia I would highly encourage you to participate in the electoral process by watching or listening to the debates.

More in a week.

The tide has definitely shifted in the Commonwealth of Virginia with four new polls, as New Jersey's data remained fairly stagnant over the last week:

I really have nothing to say about New Jersey; Corzine (D) continues to trail having only lead in one partisan poll since February. Corzine has clearly solidified his base around 40, but Christie (R) has lost ground in the last month, likely due to the US Attorney's loan scandal. We really need more data to determine whether Christie's downside will continue.

Virginia's 2009 Gubernatorial election just got interesting. Three non-partisan pollsters showed the race within five points at some point during the last week. The election is basically neck and neck according to our projection:

The reason for McDonnell's (R) decline can almost certainly be traced to his 1989 thesis in which he stated that working women were "detrimental" to the family. Deeds' (D) effort to highlight this apparent weak point clearly paid dividends in the polls.

I took a look at the two polls that provided publicly available cross tabs, Rasmussen Reports and the Washington Post in an attempt to glean more information about Deeds' surge. The basic post-thesis hypothesis is that Deeds' performance should have increased in the female voting bloc; unfortunately neither poll provided any gender specific information, at any level.

More in a week.

Three new polls from New Jersey, none from Virginia:

Our projection didn't really change based upon these newest polls, but you can clearly see the race beginning to tighten:

I don't have too much to say about this batch of polls as a whole, they all seem to acknowledge the current trends, but the Monmouth poll does contain some interesting auxiliary information.

Monmouth University and Gannett conducted a data rich poll and actually divided their results based upon their assessment of a person's likelihood of voting on November 3rd. They released a likely voter sample and a registered voter sample; the results for each segment is below:

             Corzine (D)  Christie (R)  Dagget (I)
Registered     41%          40%           6%
Likely         39%          47%           5%

Corzine actually wins among registered voters, but gets drilled when voting likelihood is factored. The Monmouth report, linked above, addressed this issue:

Murray [of Monmouth] described the findings this way: "We know that voters who are less likely to go to the polls tend to be somewhat more Democratic in their leanings. However, we rarely see more than a few points difference in the ballot test results for all registered voters compared with just likely voters. The fact that such a notable discrepancy has shown up in two consecutive polls indicates that there is a decided lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent among the Garden State electorate. While we acknowledge that most of these 'unlikely' voters will never cast a ballot in this race, if the Corzine team can bump up turnout on Election Day by just a few percentage points, their chances of victory greatly increase."

"At this point, the likely voter result is our best estimate of where the dynamics of this race stand at this time. We provide the registered voter results in the interest of furthering our understanding of the entire New Jersey electorate's concerns and motivations. The bottom line is that turnout always matters. It just may matter more in this election than usual."

Source: Monmounth University/Gannet Sept 10th Poll of NJ [PDF]

The report did not specify the criteria used for determining whether a voter was likely to vote; this appears to have been determined by Braun Research, the telephone data collection agency used in the survey. This information is typically proprietary, but there are some generally accepted methods of determining voting likelihood.

There are two main ways to determine the past voting record of an individual; you can either directly ask them, or you can make inferences based upon publicly available voter registration databases. The Help America Vote Act of 2002 requires that states maintain an Statewide Voter Registration System (SVRS) and New Jersey is no exception; the list is public data, but is typically restricted to political uses. As a result, polling firms could request and then use this data to determine the recent voting pattern of an individual. If they voted in the last election, they may be flagged as a likely voter; other criteria is probably used, but this should give you a general idea as to how the separate samples are determined.

The question of turnout still however remains and until the votes are counted, we will never definitively know who will vote and who won't.

More in a week.

Today, the day after labor day, symbolically marks the start of the general election campaigns for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia. The urgency of each campaign will intensify as the voting population more strenuously begins to weigh their options. In the last week, five new polls have entered into the public domain, each of which seems to confirm the previous weeks' trend:

Corzine (D, NJ) seems to have gained a few points in the last week, likely owing to Christie's (R, NJ) US Attorney General debacle. The New York Times presented an article on August 18th, detailing Christie's involvement in an unreported loan to a US Attorney. The Philadelphia Inquirer succinctly stated Christie's involvement:

This week, after a report on NJN public television, Christie acknowledged that he had failed to properly disclose lending a subordinate in the U.S. Attorney's Office $46,000. He admitted not paying taxes on the interest he received, and said he would correct his tax returns and financial-disclosure filings.

Christie's replacement in the office, Ralph Marra, is under investigation, according to the Associated Press, to determine whether he made inappropriate public comments in support of Christie's campaign.

And this month, it was disclosed that Christie had spoken to Karl Rove, a top strategist under President George W. Bush, about a possible run for governor. Democrats immediately accused Christie of violating the Hatch Act, which bars federal employees, including U.S. attorneys, from engaging in political activities.

Source: Philidelphia Inquirer

Chrisitie's involvement in these incidents has now been know for over 20 days, but he still maintains a significant lead in the polls. New Jerseyans tend to shift toward the Democratic candidate as the election approaches, so this race may still tighten; but for the moment Christie appears to have dodged a crucial issue.

On another New Jersey front, Independent candidate Chris Daggett released his first TV ad on Monday highlighting his ability to solve problems. When Daggett is included in the poll, the spread between Corzine and Christie is significantly less.

While the Republican in New Jersey recently faced scrutiny, the storm seems to have passed; Bob McDonnell's (R, VA) is likely just beginning. On August 31, The Washington Post rehashed McDonnell's 1989 thesis as a graduate student at Regent University:

At age 34, two years before his first election and two decades before he would run for governor of Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell submitted a master's thesis to the evangelical school he was attending in Virginia Beach in which he described working women and feminists as "detrimental" to the family. He said government policy should favor married couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators." He described as "illogical" a 1972 Supreme Court decision legalizing the use of contraception by unmarried couples.

Soucre: The Washington Post

McDonnell's thesis obviously takes a position against working women, which will likely hurt him among, well, working women. The ramifications of McDonnell's thesis have not yet been acknowledged in the form of a public poll. A poll detailing the aftermath of the Post's reporting has simply not been commissioned. Although the SurveyUSA poll was taken during Sept 1-3, I don't think the story had become widely understood during this time period.

McDonnell continues to hold a substantial lead, and his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds will no doubt focus on the thesis. McDonnell has since released a TV ad in response to the thesis issue; the ad basically contains political unicorns and rainbows.

If McDonnell can get past his thesis, much like Chrisite overcame his unreported loan, the election is still easily within his grasp.

Obama will speak to Congress tomorrow at 8 PM ET on the subject of Health Care Reform; I would encourage everybody to watch his speech.

More in a week.

Two new polls from New Jersey, but nothing from Virginia:

There seems to be divergence amongst pollsters regarding the closeness of this race. Two partisan polls, the one from last week and the DemocracyCorps (D) poll from this week show the race essentially deadlocked. There has yet to be a poll from a pollster we consider to be non-partisan, that shows Corzine (D) within stricking distance as the two partisan polls suggest. Until the mainstream polls began to reflect a closer race, our projection will continue to favor Christie (R):

Public Policy Polling (D) has their monthly Virginia poll in the works, so hopefully we'll have more Virginia data next week.

Corzine (D) has apparently retaken the lead in the only new poll released in the last week; the poll is of questionable origins however:

I found the associated polling report at PolitickerNJ.com along with the relevant description excerpted below. I've admitted the likely voter result into our database, as outlined within our methodology.

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 39%-36% among definite voters, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan. Independent Christopher Daggett is at 6%.

...

Among likely voters, Corzine leads Christie 37%-35%, with 6% for Daggett. [Emphasis added]

"If Corzine gets his liberal/urban/Democratic base together he's going to open up a significant lead, forcing Christie to work the right," Shaftan wrote in his analysis.

The poll was conducted between August 12-21 with a sample size of 319 and a margin of error of +/- 5.49%. The party breakout among respondents was 43% Democrat, 34% Republican, 23% unaffiliated.

Source: PolitickerNJ.com

There are some concerns about the sample size and the error that raise questions about the accuracy of this poll. For example, I highly doubt Christie has an approval rating of 20 favorable and 27 unfavorable; a very high rejection rate of over 50%. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll of New Jersey gave Christie a favorability of 42 and an unfavorable result of 26; a more reasonable rejection ratio of about 30%. The results of this Neighborhood Research (R) poll may in fact be accurate, but the noted anomalies are too numerous to warrant serious consideration.

Our projection remains unchanged due to the partisan affiliation of this newly inducted poll:

If this poll were to be included into our projection, both candidates would converge around 38% with a very slight advantage to Christie.

Virginia remained unchanged, polling wise. More in a week.

After three rough weeks of polling for Jon Corzine (D), the tide may be shifting if this week's polls are to be trusted. Creigh Deeds (D) of Virginia however, still appears to be stuck in the sand:

Chris Daggett, the Independent candidate in the New Jersey election, broke into the double digits for the first time in Democracy Corps' (D) latest poll. If Daggett can pull down 10% of the electorate, as James McCarville's Democracy Corps (D) poll indicates, Corzine may have a fighting chance.

The New Jersey election is beginning to resemble the Minnesota Senate Election of 2008 where Dean Barkley, an Independence Party Candidate (not the same as Daggett) altered the electoral landscape by capturing the disillusioned major party voters. If Daggett's support holds in the coming weeks, the election comes down to base turn-out, and in New Jersey, that favors the Democrat. This of course is a big if because it's just one poll and a series of extrapolations; but at this juncture, it may be Corzine's best opportunity at re-election.

The landscape in Virginia continued to grow darker for Democrat Creigh Deeds as two new polls confirmed his diminishing numbers. He's been down by at least eight for the past month, with no indication of a reversal. Deeds needs something good to happen before the close of September.

Both Democrats are down in the polls, but where do they stand in the money game? Answer; in about the same position. I'll start by providing the latest fundraising numbers out of New Jersey as reported on Jun 22, 2009:

                 Corzine (D)      Christie (R)
Receipts      $ 4,539,006.04   $  5,363,054.33
Expenditures  $ 4,539,006.04   $  5,170,238.97
Cash on Hand  $         0.00   $    192,815.36

Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission

The figures above contain data from the close of the primary period. The leading candidates each filed their report electronically, but Corzine used an R1 form and Christie a G1; the reason for this difference is unclear, but they both contain the same information. Daggett has yet to file a finance report, as he was not involved in a primary election; a result of his Independent platform. The next report will be due on Oct 5, 2009 from all general election candidates in New Jersey.

Each major party candidate raised and spent about the same amount leaving little to no cash on hand. And although Christie holds a slight monetary edge, I do not believe this significantly contributed to his nine point lead. Other factors are at play, but I'm sure the money will help as Christie tries to maintain his lead. Corzine has also been known to spend his own money, so if the race gets truly close, money may buy the deciding votes.

I should also state that I am by no means an expert on campaign finance law within New Jersey, Virginia or any other state for that matter. With that being said lets move onto Virginia's fundrace as of Jun 30, 2009:

                  Deeds (D)      McDonnell (R)
Receipts      $ 6,207,533.60   $ 10,673,988.44
Expenditures  $ 3,486,182.65   $  5,753,365.35
Cash on Hand  $ 2,721,350.95   $  4,920,623.09

Source: Virginia State Board of Elections

Deeds was out raised and out spent during the primary period but the raw data may misrepresent the fundraising dynamics of this gubernatorial election. The nearly 2:1 discrepancy can be explained by the presence of a rigorous Democratic Primary where the donors were split into three campaigns; as opposed to McDonnell's (R) coronation as the only interested candidate. The combined candidacies of the Democratic primary actually out raised McDonnell during this time period. The monetary advantage for McDonnell in the past couple of months likely played a major role in his recent surge.

McDonnell was simply able to focus more time and money on the general election at an earlier point in time. The direct result of this conclusion translates into his comfortable lead in the polls. If Deeds and the DNC, along with Tim Kaine, can get the Democratic fundraising machine on track, the race will likely tighten, but Virginians may have already made up their mind.

More in a week.

Six new polls in the last week, and they each reaffirm the trend we started to see in our last report. The Democrats in each gubernatorial race face an uphill climb:

Virginia remains unchanged from a week ago due to the partisan affiliation of the two pollsters listed above, but our New Jersey model has since given Corzine (D) a 0% chance of reelection:

The inclusion of this week's polls seemed to clarify the direction of each gubernatorial race. Corzine has all but lost, and Deeds (D) trails by a significant but non-critical margin. All four candidates know where they currently stand, two hope to maintain the status quo and two hope to change it. Because of this dynamic, the strategy becomes more important than the candidate. Let's take a quick look at each candidate's campaign manager:

Maggie Moran, Corzine (D):

This will be Maggie Moran's first foray into campaign management at any level, although she does have fairly extensive experience within the politicking world. She was a senior advisor during Corzine's first successful run at governor as a well as the NJ State Director for US Senator Franken Lautenberg (D) for several years. She clearly has political know how, but is it enough to erase the current deficit? Probably not.

Bill Stepien, Christie (R):

Bill Stepien has managed several successful state level campaigns for Republican candidates in New Jersey. He also managed Bob Frank's (R) failed bid for the US Senate in 2000 against Corzine. He was also the National Field Director for John McCain's and Rudy Giuliani's 2008 Presidential bids. Stepien clearly has the experience and the lead this time around. I would expect the Christie campaign to soften the dialogue in an attempt to prevent something stupid. Although the McCain and Giuliani campaigns melted down, Stepien wasn't responsible for the campaign's message, this time around he is. Can he avoid doing something catastrophically stupid? Probably.

Joe Abbey, Deeds (D)

Joe Abbey is another Democratic rookie, but he has considerably more experience than Moran. Abbey was the Deputy Campaign Manager for Mark Warner's (D) successful 2008 US Senate Election, a candidate who realistically didn't need a campaign manager. He has also ran a number of state level elections with varying degrees of success. If Abbey can run a successful issues based campaign and really promote voter turnout, Deeds should win. Whether this can actually be done remains the question.

Phil Cox, McDonnell (R)

There is relatively little information about Phil Cox, but a google search reveals possible connections with disgraced and now imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff. These ties came up in the 2005 Virginia General Assembly Election in which Deeds lost to McDonnell by 350 votes; Cox was McDonnell's campaign manager in that race as well. Unless some new information emerges, this pseudo-scandal is unlikely to affect the Governor's race.

More in a week. I'm tentatively planning to look at the money race.

Just two new polls in the last week, one from each gubernatorial election, and each shows the Democratic candidate a significant distance behind:

Last week I said Corzine (D) had run out of life lines, and that really hasn't changed; but now he is in better shape than his fellow Democrat in Virginia, Creigh Deeds. They each trail by more than 8 points according to our most up-to-date polling models:

Deeds' deficit is almost entirely based upon the most recent poll at this point, in part due to our methodology and in part due to the spread of the most recent survey. Both of these factors may be artificially inflating McDonnell's lead. The SurveyUSA poll is in all likelihood an outlier, but our model doesn't know the difference; the most recent poll receives the most weight. The SurveyUSA poll may also be at fault; the sample appears to skew toward people who voted for McCain by about 9 points, but Obama won Virginia by 6 points last November. This demographic discrepancy would explain the sudden drop in support for the Democrat, or it could indicate that many Obama voters don't care to participate in the off year election as SurveyUSA screens for likely voters.

Corzine is screwed, he's lost the Democratic establishment in New Jersey:

WNBC-TV's Brian Thompson reported last night that South Jersey Democratic Leader George Norcross wants Corzine to drop his re-election bid so that the party can replace him on the ballot. Some Democrats are worried that Republicans might win their first statewide election in a dozen years. One Corzine advisor acknowledged that he has heard talk among Democrats about the governor changing his mind about re-election, but says that Corzine is not considering a withdrawal.

Source: WNBC-TV via PolitickerNJ.com

There are several possible replacements in the hangar and some pollster appears to be conducting a what if replacement poll for Corzine.

More in a week.

The odd year election cycle of 2009 is fast approaching with two gubernatorial races entering the national scene. New Jersey and Virginia will steal the '09 spotlight, but several large cities will conduct mayoral elections and at least one House Seat will be up for grabs. The depth of public polling is however limited to the two Gubernatorial elections for the moment, and I don't suspect this will change.

I've compiled gubernatorial election polling released so far in 2009 and applied our projection methodology. The resulting conclusions, along with each poll, is depicted in the graphs below. The graphs are dynamically updated upon the inclusion of a new poll, and embeddable. The complete list of polling data is available on our Polls and Graphs page with the gubernatorial elections prefixed with "2009" on the Race drop down list.

HTML Code:

<a href="http://voteforamerica.net/polls.aspx?Race=2009 New Jersey&Election;=Governor#Results"><img src="http://voteforamerica.net/chart.aspx?State=2009 New Jersey&Election;=Governor" alt="VoteForAmerica.net 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election" border="0" /></a>

Forum Code:

[url=http://voteforamerica.net/polls.aspx?Race=2009 New Jersey&Election;=Governor#Results][img]http://voteforamerica.net/chart.aspx?State=2009 New Jersey&Election;=Governor[/img][/url]

HTML Code:

<a href="http://voteforamerica.net/polls.aspx?Race=2009 Virginia&Election;=Governor#Results"><img src="http://voteforamerica.net/chart.aspx?State=2009 Virginia&Election;=Governor" alt="VoteForAmerica.net 2009 Virginia Gubernatorial Election" border="0" /></a>

Forum Code:

[url=http://voteforamerica.net/polls.aspx?Race=2009 Virginia&Election;=Governor#Results][img]http://voteforamerica.net/chart.aspx?State=2009 Virginia&Election;=Governor[/img][/url]

I've got two quick pieces of analysis, one for each state and I'll preface my comments by stating that I know very little about each state and next to nothing about the candidates. I can however provide demographic and historical perspectives.

Let's begin with New Jersey; Democratic Incumbent Jon Corzine currently trails by about 8 percent. A back-analysis of our 2008 Senate projections reveals that just two candidates overcame an 8 percent deficit in mid-July and they were both the challenger rather than the incumbent; Hagan (D) in North Carolina and Merkley (D) in Oregon. A Corzine victory would not be unprecedented, but given the political environment of an odd year election, where nobody cares, it seems unlikely. Our model currently gives Corzine just a 1.05% chance of victory.

Virginia features a much more competitive, incumbent-less field in a state trending heavily blue. The Republican Candidate, Bob McDonnell currently has the upper hand as Creigh Deeds' primary bounce seems to be subsiding; but with that being said, neither candidate has obtained inevitability. The biggest wild card in this election will be the contribution of the Democratic National Committee which is currently chaired by the present Governor of Virginia, Tim Kaine. If Deeds and Kaine can effectively leverage the Democratic base in Virginia, they should easily win. McDonnell's strategy is simple, stay ahead and hope election fatigue sets in, thus diminishing Democratic turnout. In either case, the victor of the next month will likely be the victor at the end of three months.

I'll post a polling update every Monday from now until November 3rd with the latest polls and analysis pertaining to the two gubernatorial elections of 2009. If another race produces fluid polling data, I'll incorporate that data as well, but I just don't see it happening.

A ton of new polls, with 86 coming from Polimetrix/YouGov. They are marked as a partisan pollster because the internet was used to gather their data. While this in itself does not constitute partisanship, the sample is likely skewed by the internet demographic. Our algorithm only defines partisan and non-partisan polls so in order to filter out these polls (due to the aforementioned questionable sample) a partisan suffix is added.

Other than those 86 polls, the remaining non-partisan polls really provide no new information:

I'm declaring the polling for this election over; I will so be posting out final projections.

I really thought there would be more polls tonight, but I guess I was wrong:

I'm curious to see if any polls are even released tomorrow; this may be our last update before either John McCain or Barack Obama becomes president elect. I'll be making my final projection tomorrow at some point before the polls close in Indiana ; the frequency of polling tomorrow, or perhaps the lack thereof will dictate the timing. If you're bored and can't sleep checkout the new Senate Projection map along with our projections:

I've got a few other things lined up, but I can't guarantee that I'll deliver on all of them, so I'm not going to tell you about any of them.

Busy day and there are still things to do. Here's the second batch of today's polls:

I've updated our Georgia graph to include the Liberatarian candidate Allen Buckley. The Senate election in Georgia will very likely end in a runoff, but I suppose anything is possible. In 2004, 3,301,875 votes were cast in Georgia and this year early voting has already accounted for 60.4% of the that total. This contest is far from decided:

I hope to accomplish three things tonight/morning; the first, another poll update after the late polls surface. I also want to create a Senate Projection map and possibily a probability graph, but we'll see on the latter. Finally I'd like to find a live election data feed to allow for a comparision between our projections and the actual results as they trickle in.

Public Policy Polling (D) and Reuters/Zogby decided that they needed to release their latest numbers at around midnight; and I was all over it. There was also a late straggler in Minnesota by SurveyUSA/KSTP that slipped through the crack earlier in the day.

Here's our late night edition:

Of the fourteen polls included in the roundup, the Republican party leads in just two; Indiana and the Minnesota Senate race. The results of any SurveyUSA poll taken in Minnesota have been suspect throughout the election cycle and this result is no different. Based on the cross tabs Barack Obama is garnering 50% of his support from voters over 50 and just 49% from voters aged 18-50. Can you say Halloween sample skew?

In fact SurveyUSA's results have been consistently awkward; to prove this I highlighted (with gray circles) SurveyUSA's polls on our Minnesota Senate graph below:

You'll notice that every single SurveyUSA poll result for Norm Coleman lies outside of our upper 95% confidence band with the exception of their latest result, but even then its an endpoint The Local Regression algorithm we use always fits the most recent data point within the specified confidence level, so this really isn't an exception, but rather a technicality. That said, I may be able to choose another pollster to illustrate a similar bias towards Franken.

The bottom line is that the Minnesota Senate race remains extremely tight and any additional polling is unlikely to sharpen the direction of this race.

Quick update for now, the Minnesota Senate debates starts in an hour and a half and I've got things to do before then. Here are the polls so far today. I'm still convinced a few will trickle in later:

Here's just a quick thought; judging from our Senate Projections its pretty much a given that the Democrats will end up with at least 58 members in their caucus. But acquiring the final two needed to push them to 60 seems to be a stepper climb. The two best opportunities seem to be Georgia and Minnesota. I discussed the Minnesota race earlier but the Georgia race is also deserving of attention; or is it? I said it yesterday, but I'll say it again: If the Democrats are serious about reaching 60, which I assume they are, it would be a wise move to pseudo concede Georgia, and then later fight in the runoff.

Be sure to comeback later and checkout out our recap of the final Minnesota Senate debate.

This is pretty much all you need to know:

Yes, Obama is now winning Indiana; by .02%. While this is likely insignificant, the election could very well be over when the first phase of polls in Indiana close at 5 PM CT; and the exit polls are revealed. If Obama's within 5% or so, the Evansville and Gary regions may very well push him over the edge when their polling closes an hour later. But even if Obama does not in fact win Indiana, the result should be very telling of where the election is headed.

Just eleven pro-Republican polls today, definitely not a good sign for the GOP. Here were today's polls:

If the Dems want to reach 60, there are really only three viable options; they must win two of the following: Kentucky (4.58%), Minnesota (20.4%) and Georgia (7.72). Georgia law requires a runoff election if the winner recieves less than 50% of the vote; this could legitimately happen, but more on this possibility Monday afternoon. If the Democrats are serious about reaching 60, which I assume they are, it would be a wise move to pseudo concede Georgia, and then later fight in the runoff. What an epic battle that could be.

Today's polls:

Minnesota and Georgia remain the most closely contested Senates races. The Democrats appear to have North Carolina and Oregon under wraps, but that only leaves them at 58; two shy of the magical 60 needed to override a filibuster. Below is the Minnesota Senate graph:

As you can see Barkley remains a distant third, but don't count him out. The final debate for this race is November 2nd and could very well decide the outcome. I'll be doing a live analysis of this debate on Sunday.

I've added all the polls that are going to be added today and still the only change was in Montana; this is consistency. There was an number of new senate polls today, but the Democrats were unable to squeak closer to 60; our projection still stands at 58-42.

Today's polls:

The Minnesota poll conducted by the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota will likely release their Senate supplement later tonight or tomorrow. There are also a few other polls in the field today that may have yet to publish a Senate result. I'll update the polling database upon the public release of this information.

A new poll by Arizona State University now shows Obama within the margin of error in Arizona. Based on this result, the rest of today's polls suddenly seem comparatively irrelevant:

On other unrelated notes, Obama's 30 minute television ad was aired on seven different TV networks today at 7 PM CT. The ad was a mix of policy and story telling; of the personal stories that were highlighted, one came from Kentucky and another from Missouri. Obama is targeting two deeply red states six days before the election. Obama currently has a 33.66% chance of winning Missouri and a 2.63% chance in Kentucky. The Kentucky spot is likely an appeal to the Senate race while Missouri seems to be legitimately in play.

There was also a new Rasmussen Poll released from Alaska showing Sen. Stevens (R) in a significant amount of trouble; our model now gives Stevens a 99.03% chance of losing.

In our national non-tracking polling projection, Barack Obama has surpassed the 50% threshold for the first time:

Anyways, there was a plethora of state polling today:

The most notable result today probably comes from Mississippi-B's Senate race. The new Rasmussen poll shows a once competitive race, essentially beyond reach for Musgrove (D), the Democratic challenger who trails the incumbent by 11%. Granted this is a single result, but its not something you hope for if you're in the Musgrove campaign. But there still may be hope for his candidacy. Yesterday saw the expansion of our Senate Coattails Calculation and from that result reads: "Our little conclusion may give hope yet to Musgrove (D), the Democratic challenger in Mississippi-B. Musgrove's coefficient is below both 1 and his competitors coefficient, but recent polling has shown Wicker (R) with a significantly large lead." Musgrove has nothing going for him right now with the exception of this historically accurate trend.

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was convicted on seven felony counts relating to his corruption trial. After the verdict was read Steven continued to profess his innocence and went on to say that "this verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate." If you truly believe that a federal trial was carried out in an "unconscionable manner," you have defied your obligation as a US Senator to uphold the Constitution of the United States' fifth and fourteenth amendment, and thus, you are unfit to hold the office which you seek. The mere absurdity of your reasoning justifies your conviction. Now onto the polls.

Obama now has an outside shot at hitting 400 Electoral Votes. A new poll by Rasmussen places Arizona in the Lean Rep category. If in the next eight days Obama takes the lead in Arizona the election is over. Here were the rest of today's polls:

I've spent the majority of my free time today collating 2004 and 2006 election results. Using this data I hope to provide some historical perspective on Senate Coefficients. Look for it later tonight and look for a follow up to our Bradley Effect Model later in the week.

Update: I incorrectly entered the Senate poll for Virginia taken by VCU as a presidential poll. This has now been corrected; my thanks goes out to "dickelocker" for bringing this to my attention.

I know there are a few polls missing, but I'll just add them tomorrow morning. Here's what I added today:

In the last few day's the site has come under attack from a massive spam operation. Many of our older articles' comments were infiltrated by this operation, but worry not, a fix has been devised and is now operational.

Today's polls:

The Minnesota polls conducted by St. Cloud State University are just terrible. Its ten days from the election and they show 21% of the Minnesota population as undecided. This is either a massive new development or a poorly conducted poll.

After disregarding the Minnesota poll, the next most interesting result comes from the Missouri result conducted by Research 2000 on behalf of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Obama continues to maintain a thin lead in Missouri, despite its past voting record. The ethanol issue is no doubt hurting McCain in the largely agricultural Show-Me-State. Palin was in Iowa today voicing her support for ethanol; may this be a last ditch effort by the McCain campaign to win over uncommitted farmers in the Midwest?

I think new polling has concluded for the day, here's where it ended up:

In a poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage, Obama has his first lead in the state famous for peaches, Georgia. Although the poll appears to be an outlier based on the graph below, one things for certain: John McCain at least has to think about defending Georgia.

Our model doesn't show any imminent threat to McCain's chances in Georgia, but its one more thing the Republican nominee has to worry about.

There were 41 new polls today which made me a busy body; here are the results:

Of the 41 polls, only 12 favor the Republican candidate, just slightly under 30%. Given the correlation between the number of polls published in a given state and the importance of the state in the Electoral College this seems to be an ominous sign for the elephants. The Republican Party may be facing a disastrous presidential outcome as well as the possibility of losing upwards of nine Senate seats.

Last night I finished implementing phase two of our Senate projections. Our projection methods are fully implemented and are currently projecting a 59-41 outcome in favor of the Democratic caucus. Over the weekend I hope to add scenario probability graphs to finish the page.

Sorry for the late update; I had a busy day and there were a ton of new polls today:

The general pro-Obama trend seems to be holding with the exception of a few deviations. West Virginia, a state Obama led briefly in our projection is securely back in the Safe Rep category. The Kentucky Senate race also appears to have calmed down; the tie in yesterday's poll appears to be an anomaly.

Speaking of anomalies: there has been some chatter regarding the "tightening of the race," mainly by the Associated Press, after their national poll revealed Obama with just a percentage point lead. People, specifically the liberal side, have been quick to discredit the merits of poll. While it does not align with the vast majority of national polling, that doesn't mean its result is invalid. When dealing with population sampling there are many factors taken into account, but ultimately the random sample decides the outcome. If you get a bad sample no amount of finagling can change that. Rather the outcome of the AP-Gtk poll is nothing more than a statistical outcome. Given the monumental number of polls taken this election cycle, the standard distribution principle dictates that any set of data will have outliers. The AP poll is simply an outlier, nothing more, nothing less; but apparently the Associated Press failed to realize this mathematical caveat given the degree to which they pushed this singular poll.

I hope to have an article pertaining to the Bradley Effect later tonight, and then after that I'll look to finish the new Senate Projection page.

Today is done:

If you were a McCain strategist in charge of campaign optimism, your line of attack today would be: "We have a solid lead in Kentucky, Oklahoma and Wyoming, that's all I have to report." If you're McCain's strategist in charge of realism, you probably didn't bother showing up at work today. Obama on the other hand has taken his first lead in a Public Policy Polling (D) poll of Indiana and has led or been tied in the last eleven polls taken in North Carolina.

If you're a Republican you've probably redirected your focus to the Senate. Although the Senate picture doesn't look much brighter for your favorite right winged party. A new poll by SurveyUSA shows the Kentucky Senate race as an absolute dead heat. Republicans can try and spin this all they want, but it ultimately comes down to the fact the Kentucky is one of the few states McCain absolutely does not have to worry about; and the fact that Mitch McConnell is the Republican Minority leader. The leader of the Republican Party in the Senate faces a potential defeat in one of the reddest states in the Union; talk about a poor brand. The Kentucky Senate graph is below:

The condition of Kentucky's Senate race is not an isolated issue, Republican Senators elsewhere are facing fierce competition. Today brought two new polls from such races; Civitas Institute (R) shows Democratic challenger Claire Hagan with a four point lead over Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina; and the Minnesota Star Tribune's Senate supplement was published late last night. The Minnesota Senate race has been contentious throughout and the Star Tribune poll makes no exceptions. Al Franken, the Democratic challenger to incumbent Republican Norm Coleman has a slim lead of three, down from nine in the previous conducted by the Star Tribune. If this seems like an oddity, it is, and I'll prove it later.

I'm working on a slick analysis of the Minnesota Senate race. I'm going to wait until after Rasmussen publishes today's polls because I'm terrified they'll pop out a Minnesota poll and force me to start over. Check back later tonight for the result.

The FOX/Rasmussen polls were just released so I'm declaring today done. This should be all of today's polls:

Missouri appears to legitimately be in play, as evidenced by yet another poll showing the race as essentially a dead heat; this time it the result comes from Suffolk University. Suffolk also released an Ohio poll that showed Obama with a nine point lead with just seven undecideds.

The other poll of note is the new SurveyUSA poll sponsored by KSTP, the Minneapolis ABC affiliate. The combination of SurveyUSA and KSTP has given consistent, although perhaps inaccurate results for the entire election cycle; more on this in a later article.

Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama yesterday on Meet the Press. While this is a large development, I don't think it was the biggest political event to occur yesterday. The other major piece of news, with huge political ramifications is the advancement of the Tampa Bay Rays into the World Series. Keep reading, I promise this relates. The World Series pitches two teams, from two major swing states against each other. If the series goes to a game six, the start time will be delayed 15 minutes to allow FOX to televise Obama's half an hour ad buy. If this occur you can be sure that a massive percentage of Pennsylvania and Florida residents will be watching. Obama may have the opportunity to speak directly to, perhaps 5 Million swing state voters; just five days before the election.

While Pennsylvania seems to be in Obama's court, Florida is still very much in play.

Today's Polls:

Only four non-partisan polls today, three from NBC and one from The Minneapolis Star Tribune. Combined the four polls really didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Minnesota is Obama's, Wisconsin is Obama's, West Virginia is McCain's and Ohio is close. Nothing to see here, move it along.

If you look at the DailyKos' polls you get essentially the same feel, but they do provide some interesting Senate polls. Al Franken (D) is narrowly beating incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Lundsford is giving the Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a fight. If the Dems can somehow win both these seats they will essentially secure a filibuster proof majority of 60 Senators.

Keep in mind that DailyKos polls are excluded because they are partisan, not because they are wrong.

Today's Polls:

Three non-partisan polls in three Bush states reveal three leads for Obama. The fourth and fifth non-partisan polls depict Obama with large leads in Kerry states.

The DailyKos provided, for the second day in a row, a rather large sampling. Looking at just the presidential race, North Carolina is the only interesting result. McCain had maintained a steady lead for much of the cycle in North Carolina, until right around the time the economy crashed and the debates began. Looking at the graph below, McCain has a lot of ground to make up in a relatively short amount of time:

The Senate polling in Oregon, Alaska and North Carolina must also be discouraging news for the GOP. Incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole (of North Carolina) is in the fight of her life with Democratic challenger Claire Hagan. The culmination of a very effective campaign by Hagan and the fact that Elizabeth Dole has done essentially nothing as a Senator, may doom Republican hopes of avoiding a 40 seat minority.

There will probably be another phase, but here's where today's polls currently stand:

McCain is now winning Florida, but at the cost of Missouri?

Where to start? Saturday night, a few hours after the MN Senate Debate, I went to check the site and discovered it was down. I called the host (easycgi.com) and they literally had no idea what was happening. Fast forward four days and they still have (as in the present tense) no idea what is happening. To make a long story short they were a terrible host; but now everything is fine.

During the outage, I collated historical Senate polling. As of this moment all of the current Senate races have their own graph; Minnesota for example. We'll call this phase one of the Senate move; the eventual intention is to have a dedicated Senate page with neato graphs and such. In the interim I plan on creating a snazzy probability curve that reflects the number of projected seats held by each party. The Senate polling is updated in the same fashion as our Presidential model; if a poll is in the database, it is reflected in our maps and graphs and projections.

Now onto the polls:

It's bad news for the Republican party when the only red on a recent polls table occurs in Kansas' Senate race.

Today's Polls:

Updated everything after our hosting issues; all data is now current. During the downtime I added Senate polling graphs. More on both topics tomorrow.