EUR
OP
EAN
CENTRAL
BANK
CONVERGENCE
REPOR
T
CONVERGENCE REPORT
mAY 2010
m
AY
20
10
EN
C O N V E R G E N C E R E P O R T
M A Y 2 0 1 0
In 2010 all ECB
publications
feature a motif
taken from the
âŹ500 banknote.
Š European Central Bank, 2010
Address
Kaiserstrasse 29
60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Postal address
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Germany
Telephone
+49 69 1344 0
Website
http://www.ecb.europa.eu
Fax
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for educational and non-commercial
purposes is permitted provided that the
source is acknowledged.
The cut-off date for the statistics included
in this issue was 23 April 2010.
ISSN 1725-9312 (print)
ISSN 1725-9525 (online)
3
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
C O N T E N T S
1 INTRODUCTION
5
2 FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS
7
2.1 Economic convergence
7
2.2 Compatibility of national
legislation with the Treaties
15
3 THE STATE OF ECONOMIC
CONVERGENCE
31
4 COUNTRY SUMMARIES
39
4.1 Bulgaria
39
4.2 Czech Republic
40
4.3 Estonia
42
4.4 Latvia
44
4.5 Lithuania
46
4.6 Hungary
47
4.7 Poland
49
4.8 Romania
50
4.9 Sweden
52
5 EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC
CONVERGENCE 55
5.1 Bulgaria
55
5.2 Czech Republic
73
5.3 Estonia
89
5.4 Latvia
111
5.5 Lithuania
131
5.6 Hungary
149
5.7 Poland
167
5.8 Romania
185
5.9 Sweden
203
ANNEX
STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
OF CONVERGENCE INDICATORS
219
6 EXAMINATION OF COMPATIBILITY
OF NATIONAL LEGISLATION WITH
THE TREATIES
235
6.1 Bulgaria
235
6.2 Czech Republic
238
6.3 Estonia
242
6.4 Latvia
243
6.5 Lithuania
246
6.6 Hungary
248
6.7 Poland
252
6.8 Romania
256
6.9 Sweden
261
GLOSSARY
265
CONTENTS
4
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
ABBREVIATIONS
COUNTRIES
BE
Belgium
LU
Luxembourg
BG
Bulgaria
HU
Hungary
CZ
Czech Republic
MT
Malta
DK
Denmark
NL
Netherlands
DE
Germany
AT
Austria
EE
Estonia
PL
Poland
IE
Ireland
PT
Portugal
GR
Greece
RO
Romania
ES
Spain
SI
Slovenia
FR
France
SK
Slovakia
IT
Italy
FI
Finland
CY
Cyprus
SE
Sweden
LV
Latvia
UK
United Kingdom
LT Lithuania
OTHERS
BIS
Bank for International Settlements
b.o.p.
balance of payments
BPM5
IMF Balance of Payments Manual (5th edition)
CD
certi
fi
cate of deposit
CPI
Consumer Price Index
ECB
European Central Bank
EDP
excessive de
fi
cit procedure
EER
effective exchange rate
EMI
European Monetary Institute
EMU
Economic and Monetary Union
ERM
exchange rate mechanism
ESA 95
European System of Accounts 1995
ESCB
European System of Central Banks
EU
European Union
EUR
euro
GDP
gross domestic product
HICP
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
ILO
International Labour Organization
IMF
International Monetary Fund
MFI
monetary
fi
nancial institution
NCB
national central bank
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PPI
Producer Price Index
ULCM
unit labour costs in manufacturing
ULCT
unit labour costs in the total economy
In accordance with EU practice, the EU countries are listed in this report using the
alphabetical order of the country names in the national languages.
5
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
1 I N T R O D U C T I O N
Since the introduction of the euro in 11 Member
States on 1 January 1999,
fi
ve additional Member
States have joined the euro area. At the time of
this report, 16 Member States have adopted the
euro, the most recent one being Slovakia on
1 January 2009. This implies that 11 Member
States are at present not full participants in
EMU and have not yet adopted the euro. Two of
these Member States, namely Denmark and the
United Kingdom, gave noti
fi
cation that they
would not participate in Stage Three of EMU.
As a consequence, convergence reports for these
two Member States only have to be provided if
they so request. In the absence of such a request
from either country, this report examines
nine countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland,
Romania and Sweden. All nine countries are
committed by the Treaty
1
to adopt the euro,
which implies that they must strive to ful
fi
l all
the convergence criteria.
In producing this report, the ECB ful
fi
ls the
requirement of Article 140 of the Treaty to report
to the Council of the European Union (Council)
at least once every two years or at the request
of a Member State with a derogation âon the
progress made by the Member States with a
derogation in ful
fi
lling their obligations regarding
the achievement of economic and monetary
unionâ. The same mandate has been given to the
European Commission, which has also prepared a
report, and the two reports are being submitted to
the Council in parallel. The nine countries under
review in this report are examined in the context
of the regular two-year cycle.
In this report, the ECB uses the framework
applied in its previous convergence reports.
It examines, for the nine countries concerned,
whether a high degree of sustainable economic
convergence has been achieved, whether the
national legislation is compatible with the
Treaty and whether the statutory requirements
are ful
fi
lled for NCBs to become an integral part
of the Eurosystem.
In this report, Estonia is assessed in somewhat
more depth than the other countries under
review. This is due to the fact that the
Estonian authorities have on various occasions
announced their intention to adopt the euro as of
1 January 2011.
The examination of the economic convergence
process is highly dependent on the quality
and integrity of the underlying statistics.
The compilation and reporting of statistics,
particularly government
fi
nance statistics, must
not be subject to political considerations or
interference. Member States have been invited
to consider the quality and integrity of their
statistics as a matter of high priority, to ensure
that a proper system of checks and balances is
in place when compiling these statistics, and
to apply minimum standards in the domain of
statistics. These standards are of the utmost
importance in reinforcing the independence,
integrity and accountability of the national
statistical institutes and in helping to support
con
fi
dence in the quality of government
fi
nance
statistics (see the statistical section).
This report is structured as follows. Chapter 2
describes the framework used for the
examination of economic and legal convergence.
Chapter 3 provides a horizontal overview of the
key aspects of economic convergence. Chapter 4
contains the country summaries, which provide
the main results of the examination of economic
and legal convergence. Chapter 5 examines the
state of economic convergence in each of the
nine Member States under review in more detail
and provides an overview of the statistical
methodology of convergence indicators. Finally,
Chapter 6 examines the compatibility of these
Member Statesâ national legislation, including
the statutes of their NCB, with Articles 130 and
131 of the Treaty and with the Statute.
2
Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, as de
fi
ned in
1
the Glossary (see âTreaty of Lisbonâ).
Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the
2
European Central Bank, as de
fi
ned in the Glossary.
1 INTRODUCTION
7
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
2.1 ECONOMIC
CONVERGENCE
To examine the state of economic convergence
in the nine Member States under review, the
ECB makes use of a common framework for
analysis which is applied to each country in
turn. The common framework is based,
fi
rst, on
the Treaty provisions and their application by
the ECB with regard to developments in prices,
fi
scal balances and debt ratios, exchange rates
and long-term interest rates, together with other
relevant factors. Second, it is based on a range
of additional backward and forward-looking
economic indicators which are considered to
be useful for examining the sustainability of
convergence in greater detail. Boxes 1 to 4 below
brie
fl
y recall the provisions of the Treaty and
provide methodological details which outline the
application of these provisions by the ECB.
This report builds on principles set out in
previous reports published by the ECB (and prior
to this by the European Monetary Institute) in
order to ensure continuity and equal treatment.
In particular, a number of guiding principles
are used by the ECB in the application of the
convergence criteria. First, the individual criteria
are interpreted and applied in a strict manner.
The rationale behind this principle is that the
main purpose of the criteria is to ensure that only
those Member States having economic conditions
that are conducive to the maintenance of price
stability and the coherence of the euro area can
participate in it. Second, the convergence criteria
constitute a coherent and integrated package,
and they must all be satis
fi
ed; the Treaty lists the
criteria on an equal footing and does not suggest
a hierarchy. Third, the convergence criteria have
to be met on the basis of actual data. Fourth, the
application of the convergence criteria should be
consistent, transparent and simple. Moreover,
it is emphasised again that convergence must
be achieved on a lasting basis and not just at a
given point in time. For this reason, the country
examinations elaborate on the sustainability of
convergence.
In this respect, economic developments in
the countries concerned are reviewed from
a backward-looking perspective, covering,
in principle, the past ten years. This helps to
better determine the extent to which current
achievements are the result of genuine structural
adjustments, which in turn should lead to a better
assessment of the sustainability of economic
convergence.
In addition, and to the extent appropriate, a
forward-looking perspective is adopted. In this
context, particular attention is drawn to the fact
that the sustainability of favourable economic
developments hinges critically on appropriate
and lasting policy responses to existing and
future challenges. Overall, it is emphasised
that ensuring the sustainability of economic
convergence depends both on the achievement
of a sound starting position and on the policies
pursued after the adoption of the euro.
The common framework is applied individually
to the nine Member States under review.
These country examinations, which focus on
each Member Stateâs performance, should be
considered separately, in line with the provisions
of Article 140 of the Treaty.
The cut-off date for the statistics included in
this Convergence Report was 23 April 2010.
The statistical data used in the application of the
convergence criteria have been provided by the
European Commission (see also the statistical
section and the tables and charts), in cooperation
with the ECB in the case of exchange rates and
long-term interest rates. Convergence data on
price and long-term interest rate developments are
presented up to March 2010, the latest month for
which data on HICPs were available. For monthly
data on exchange rates, the period considered in
this report ends in March 2010, whereas daily
data have been included until 23 April 2010.
Data for
fi
scal positions cover the period up to
2009. Account is also taken of forecasts from
various sources, together with the most recent
convergence programmes of the Member States
and other information considered to be relevant
to a forward-looking consideration of the
sustainability of convergence. The release date of
the European Commissionâs spring 2010 forecast,
2
FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS
8
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
which is also taken into account in this report,
was 5 May 2010. The report was adopted by the
General Council of the ECB on 11 May 2010.
With regard to price developments, the Treaty
provisions and their application by the ECB are
outlined in Box 1.
Box 1
PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
1 Treaty
provisions
Article 140(1),
fi
rst indent, of the Treaty requires:
âthe achievement of a high degree of price stability; this will be apparent from a rate of in
fl
ation
which is close to that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price
stabilityâ.
Article 1 of Protocol (No 13) on the convergence criteria referred to in Article 140 of the Treaty
stipulates that:
âthe criterion on price stability referred to in the
fi
rst indent of Article 140(1) of the Treaty on
the Functioning of the European Union shall mean that a Member State has a price performance
that is sustainable and an average rate of in
fl
ation, observed over a period of one year before
the examination, that does not exceed by more than 1½ percentage points that of, at most,
the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability. In
fl
ation shall be measured
by means of the consumer price index on a comparable basis taking into account differences in
national de
fi
nitions.â
2 Application of Treaty provisions
In the context of this report, the ECB applies the Treaty provisions as outlined below:
First, with regard to âan average rate of in
fl
ation, observed over a period of one year before
â
the examinationâ, the in
fl
ation rate has been calculated using the change in the latest available
12-month average of the HICP over the previous 12-month average. Hence, with regard to the
rate of in
fl
ation, the reference period considered in this report is April 2009 to March 2010.
Second, the notion of âat most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price
â
stabilityâ, which is used for the de
fi
nition of the reference value, has been applied by taking
the unweighted arithmetic average of the rates of in
fl
ation of the following three Member
States: Portugal (-0.8%), Estonia (-0.7%) and Belgium (-0.1%). As a result, the average rate
is -0.5% and, adding 1½ percentage points, the reference value is 1.0%. Price developments
in Ireland over the reference period, which resulted in a 12-month average in
fl
ation rate of
-2.3% in March 2010, have been judged to be an outlier as this in
fl
ation rate is signi
fi
cantly
lower than those of the other Member States due to the accumulation of a number of
country-speci
fi
c factors. These factors are mainly related to the exceptionally strong downturn
in economic activity and the associated signi
fi
cant decline in wages in Ireland. The Irish
9
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
Unlike in previous convergence reports, several
Member States have recorded negative average
in
fl
ation rates over the most recent 12-month
period. In this context, it must be recalled
that under the Treaty a countryâs in
fl
ation
performance is examined in relative terms,
i.e. against the performance of the best
performing Member States. Accordingly, the
price stability criterion takes into account that
common shocks (stemming, for example, from
global commodity prices) can temporarily drive
in
fl
ation away from levels compatible with price
stability in the medium term, also in the euro
area. As such common shocks affect all Member
States in a similar fashion, it is appropriate
to consider the Member Statesâ relative
in
fl
ation performance with a view to assessing
convergence. Indeed, all EU countries were
severely affected by oil and food price shocks in
the period under review. As commodity prices
fell signi
fi
cantly from their peaks reached in
2008, several EU countries recorded negative
in
fl
ation rates in the course of 2009. Such a
temporary period of negative in
fl
ation should
be distinguished from a period of de
fl
ation,
which is a persistent decline in the general
price level that becomes entrenched in agentsâ
expectations. Thus, although negative in
fl
ation is
not consistent with medium-term price stability,
where temporary and common factors exert
strong downward pressures on prices, negative
in
fl
ation rates may constitute an economically
meaningful benchmark against which to assess
a countryâs convergence. Indeed, it would be
misleading to mechanically exclude all Member
States with negative in
fl
ation rates at a time when
several EU countries are recording such rates as
a consequence of negative global price shocks
or a highly synchronised strong downturn.
To allow a more detailed examination of the
sustainability of price developments, the average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation over the 12-month
reference period from April 2009 to March 2010
is reviewed in the light of the Member Statesâ
economic performance over the last ten years
in terms of price stability. In this connection,
attention is drawn to the orientation of monetary
policy, in particular to whether the focus of
the monetary authorities has been primarily
on achieving and maintaining price stability,
as well as to the contribution of other areas of
economic policy to this objective. Moreover, the
implications of the macroeconomic environment
for the achievement of price stability are
taken into account. Price developments are
examined in the light of demand and supply
conditions, focusing on, inter alia, factors
in
fl
uencing unit labour costs and import prices.
Finally, trends in other relevant price indices
(such as the HICP excluding unprocessed food
and energy, the HICP at constant tax rates,
in
fl
ation rate has therefore been excluded from the calculation of the reference value as its
inclusion would have given rise to a distortion in the reference value. It should be noted
that the concept of âoutlierâ has already been referred to in previous convergence reports of
the ECB (see, for example, the 2004 report), as well as in convergence reports of the EMI.
In line with those reports, a Member State is considered to be an outlier if two conditions are
ful
fi
lled:
fi
rst, its 12-month average in
fl
ation rate is signi
fi
cantly below the comparable rates
in other Member States and, second, its price developments have been strongly affected by
exceptional factors. The outlier approach does not imply any mechanical approach to the
exclusion of certain in
fl
ation rates but was introduced to deal appropriately with potential
signi
fi
cant distortions in individual countriesâ in
fl
ation developments.
In
fl
ation has been measured on the basis of the HICP, which was developed for the purpose
of assessing convergence in terms of price stability on a comparable basis (see the statistical
section). For information, the average euro area in
fl
ation rate is shown in the statistical part of
this report.
10
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
the national CPI, the private consumption
de
fl
ator, the GDP de
fl
ator and producer prices)
are considered. From a forward-looking
perspective, a view is provided of prospective
in
fl
ationary developments in the coming years,
including forecasts by major international
organisations and market participants.
Moreover, structural aspects which are relevant
for maintaining an environment conducive
to price stability after adoption of the euro
are discussed.
With regard to
fi
scal developments, the Treaty
provisions and their application by the ECB,
together with procedural issues, are outlined in
Box 2.
Box 2
FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
1 Treaty
provisions
Article 140(1), second indent, of the Treaty requires:
âthe sustainability of the government
fi
nancial position; this will be apparent from having
achieved a government budgetary position without a de
fi
cit that is excessive as determined in
accordance with Article 126(6)â.
Article 2 of Protocol (No 13) on the convergence criteria referred to in Article 140 of the Treaty
stipulates that:
âThe criterion on the government budgetary position referred to in the second indent of Article
140(1) of the said Treaty shall mean that at the time of the examination the Member State is not
the subject of a Council decision under Article 126(6) of the said Treaty that an excessive de
fi
cit
existsâ.
Article 126 sets out the excessive de
fi
cit procedure. According to Article 126(2) and (3),
the European Commission prepares a report if a Member State does not ful
fi
l the requirements
for
fi
scal discipline, in particular if:
the ratio of the planned or actual government de
fi
cit to GDP exceeds a reference value
(a)
(de
fi
ned in the Protocol on the excessive de
fi
cit procedure as 3% of GDP), unless:
either the ratio has declined substantially and continuously and reached a level that comes
â
close to the reference value; or, alternatively,
the excess over the reference value is only exceptional and temporary and the ratio
â
remains close to the reference value;
the ratio of government debt to GDP exceeds a reference value (de
fi
ned in the Protocol on
(b)
the excessive de
fi
cit procedure as 60% of GDP), unless the ratio is suf
fi
ciently diminishing
and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace.
11
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
With regard to the sustainability of public
fi
nances, the outcome in the reference year, 2009,
is reviewed in the light of the Member Statesâ
performance over the past ten years. As a
starting-point, the development of the de
fi
cit
ratio is investigated. In this context, it is
considered useful to bear in mind that the
change in a countryâs annual de
fi
cit ratio is
typically in
fl
uenced by a variety of underlying
forces. These in
fl
uences are often divided
into âcyclical effectsâ on the one hand, which
re
fl
ect the reaction of de
fi
cits to changes in
the economic cycle, and ânon-cyclical effectsâ
on the other, which are often taken to re
fl
ect
structural or permanent adjustments to
fi
scal
policies. However, such non-cyclical effects, as
quanti
fi
ed in this report, cannot necessarily be
seen as entirely re
fl
ecting a structural change to
fi
scal positions, because they include temporary
effects on the budgetary balance stemming
from the impact of both policy measures and
special factors. Indeed, assessing how structural
budgetary positions have changed during the
crisis is particularly dif
fi
cult in view of uncertainty
over the level and growth rate of potential
output. As regards other
fi
scal indicators, past
government expenditure and revenue trends are
also considered in more detail.
As a further step, the development of the
government debt ratio in this period is
considered, as well as the factors underlying it,
i.e. the difference between nominal GDP growth
and interest rates, the primary balance, and
In addition, the report prepared by the Commission must take into account whether the government
de
fi
cit exceeds government investment expenditure and all other relevant factors, including the
medium-term economic and budgetary position of the Member State. The Commission may also
prepare a report if, notwithstanding the ful
fi
lment of the criteria, it is of the opinion that there
is a risk of an excessive de
fi
cit in a Member State. The Economic and Financial Committee
formulates an opinion on the Commissionâs report. Finally, in accordance with Article 126(6),
the Council, on the basis of a recommendation from the Commission and having considered any
observations which the Member State concerned may wish to make, decides, acting by quali
fi
ed
majority and excluding the Member State concerned, and following an overall assessment,
whether an excessive de
fi
cit exists in a Member State.
2 Application of Treaty provisions
For the purpose of examining convergence, the ECB expresses its view on
fi
scal developments.
With regard to sustainability, the ECB examines key indicators of
fi
scal developments from 2000
to 2009, the outlook and the challenges for general government
fi
nances and focuses on the links
between de
fi
cit and debt developments.
With regard to Article 126, the ECB, in contrast to the Commission, has no formal role in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure. The ECB report only recounts whether the country is subject to an
excessive de
fi
cit procedure.
With regard to the Treaty provision that a debt ratio of above 60% of GDP should be âsuf
fi
ciently
diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory paceâ, the ECB examines past
and future trends in the debt ratio.
The examination of
fi
scal developments is based on data compiled on a national accounts basis,
in compliance with the European System of Accounts 1995 (see the statistical section). Most of
the
fi
gures presented in this report were provided by the Commission in April 2010 and include
government
fi
nancial positions from 2000 to 2009 as well as Commission forecasts for 2010.
12
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
the de
fi
cit-debt adjustment. Such a perspective
can offer further information on the extent
to which the macroeconomic environment,
in particular the combination of growth and
interest rates, has affected the dynamics of
debt. It can also provide more information on
the contribution of
fi
scal consolidation efforts,
as re
fl
ected in the primary balance, and on the
role played by special factors, as included in the
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment. In addition, the structure
of government debt is considered, focusing
in particular on the shares of debt with a
short-term maturity and foreign currency debt, as
well as their development. By comparing these
shares with the current level of the debt ratio,
the sensitivity of
fi
scal balances to changes in
exchange rates and interest rates is highlighted.
Turning to a forward-looking perspective,
national budget plans and recent forecasts by the
European Commission for 2010 are considered
and account is taken of the medium-term
fi
scal strategy, as re
fl
ected in the convergence
programme. This includes an assessment of
the projected attainment of a Member Stateâs
medium-term budgetary objective, as foreseen in
the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as of the
outlook for the debt ratio on the basis of current
fi
scal policies. Finally, long-term challenges to
the sustainability of budgetary positions and
broad areas for consolidation are emphasised,
particularly those related to the issue of unfunded
government pension systems in connection with
demographic change and to contingent liabilities
incurred by the government, especially during
the
fi
nancial and economic crisis.
With regard to exchange rate developments, the
Treaty provisions and their application by the
ECB are outlined in Box 3.
Box 3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
1 Treaty
provisions
Article 140(1), third indent, of the Treaty requires:
âthe observance of the normal
fl
uctuation margins provided for by the exchange-rate mechanism
of the European Monetary System, for at least two years, without devaluing against the euroâ.
Article 3 of Protocol (No 13) on the convergence criteria referred to in Article 140(1) of the
Treaty stipulates that:
âThe criterion on participation in the Exchange Rate mechanism of the European Monetary
System referred to in the third indent of Article 140(1) of the said Treaty shall mean
that a Member State has respected the normal
fl
uctuation margins provided for by the
exchange-rate mechanism on the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least
the last two years before the examination. In particular, the Member State shall not have devalued
its currencyâs bilateral central rate against the euro on its own initiative for the same period.â
2 Application of Treaty provisions
With regard to exchange rate stability, the ECB examines whether the country has participated in
ERM II (which superseded the ERM as of January 1999) for a period of at least two years prior
to the convergence examination without severe tensions, in particular without devaluing against
13
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
Three of the Member States examined in this
report currently participate in ERM II. Estonia
and Lithuania have participated in ERM II with
effect from 28 June 2004. Latvia entered the
mechanism on 2 May 2005. For these countries
currency movements vis-Ă -vis the euro in the
reference period are analysed as deviations
from the corresponding ERM II central parity.
For the other six Member States covered in
this report, in the absence of ERM II central
rates, the average exchange rates vis-Ă -vis the
euro in April 2008 are used as benchmarks for
illustrative purposes. This follows a convention
adopted in earlier reports and does not re
fl
ect
any judgement regarding the appropriate level
of the exchange rate.
In addition to the performance of the nominal
exchange rate against the euro, evidence
relevant to the sustainability of the current
exchange rate is brie
fl
y reviewed. This is
derived from the development of the real
bilateral and effective exchange rates, and
the current, capital and
fi
nancial accounts of
the balance of payments. The evolution of
gross external debt and the net international
investment position over longer periods are
also examined. The sections on exchange rate
developments also consider measures of the
degree of a countryâs integration with the euro
area. This is assessed in terms of both external
trade integration (exports and imports) and
fi
nancial integration. Finally, the sections on
exchange rate developments report whether the
countries examined bene
fi
ted from central bank
liquidity assistance or balance of payments
support, either bilaterally or from international
institutions, such as the IMF or the European
Union. Both actual and precautionary
assistance are considered, including access
to precautionary
fi
nancing in the form of the
IMFâs Flexible Credit Line.
With regard to long-term interest rate
developments, the Treaty provisions and their
application by the ECB are outlined in Box 4.
the euro. In cases of shorter periods of participation, exchange rate developments are described
over a two-year reference period as in previous reports.
The examination of exchange rate stability against the euro focuses on the exchange rate being
close to the ERM II central rate, while also taking into account factors that may have led to an
appreciation, which is in line with the approach taken in the past. In this respect, the width of the
fl
uctuation band within ERM II does not prejudice the examination of the exchange rate stability
criterion.
Moreover, the issue of the absence of âsevere tensionsâ is generally addressed by: i) examining
the degree of deviation of exchange rates from the ERM II central rates against the euro; ii) using
indicators such as exchange rate volatility vis-Ă -vis the euro and its trend, as well as short-term
interest rate differentials vis-Ă -vis the euro area and their development; iii) considering the role
played by foreign exchange interventions; and iv) considering the role of international
fi
nancial
assistance programmes in stabilising the currency.
The reference period in this report is from 24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010. All bilateral exchange
rates are of
fi
cial ECB reference rates (see the statistical section).
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Box 4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
1 Treaty
provisions
Article 140(1), fourth indent, of the Treaty requires:
âthe durability of convergence achieved by the Member State with a derogation and of its
participation in the exchange-rate mechanism being re
fl
ected in the long-term interest-rate levelsâ.
Article 4 of Protocol (No 13) on the convergence criteria referred to in Article 140 of the Treaty
stipulates that:
âthe criterion on the convergence of interest rates referred to in the fourth indent of Article 140(1)
of the said Treaty shall mean that, observed over a period of one year before the examination, a
Member State has had an average nominal long-term interest rate that does not exceed by more
than two percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of
price stability. Interest rates shall be measured on the basis of long-term government bonds or
comparable securities, taking into account differences in national de
fi
nitions.â
2 Application of Treaty provisions
In the context of this report, the ECB applies the Treaty provisions as outlined below:
First, with regard to âan average nominal long-term interest rateâ observed over âa period of one
year before the examinationâ, the long-term interest rate has been calculated as an arithmetic
average over the latest 12 months for which HICP data were available. The reference period
considered in this report is from April 2009 to March 2010.
Second, the notion of âat most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price stabilityâ,
which is used for the de
fi
nition of the reference value, has been applied by using the unweighted
arithmetic average of the long-term interest rates of the same three Member States entering the
calculation of the reference value for the criterion on price stability (see Box 1). However, one of
the best performing countries in terms of price stability is Estonia, which is characterised by the
absence of a harmonised long-term interest rate. Therefore, Estonia has been excluded from the
calculation of the reference value. Over the reference period considered in this report, the long-term
interest rates of the two best performing countries were 3.8% (Belgium) and 4.2% (Portugal); as a
result, the average rate is 4.0% and, adding 2 percentage points, the reference value is 6.0%.
Interest rates have been measured on the basis of available harmonised long-term interest rates,
which were developed for the purpose of examining convergence (see the statistical section).
For a country where no harmonised long-term interest rate is available, a broad analysis of
fi
nancial markets is conducted taking into account the level of government debt, the level of
spreads directly derived from monetary and
fi
nancial statistics, sovereign credit ratings and other
relevant indicators, with a view to assessing the durability of the convergence achieved by the
Member State and of its participation in ERM II.
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As mentioned above, the Treaty makes explicit
reference to the âdurability of convergenceâ
being re
fl
ected in the level of long-term
interest rates. Therefore, developments over the
reference period from April 2009 to March 2010
are reviewed against the background of the
path of long-term interest rates over the past
ten years (or otherwise the period for which
data are available) and the main factors
underlying differentials vis-Ă -vis the average
long-term interest rate prevailing in the euro
area. As background to this analysis, the report
also provides information about the size and
development of the
fi
nancial market. This is
based on three indicators (the outstanding amount
of debt securities issued by corporations, stock
market capitalisation and domestic bank credit
to the private sector), which, together, measure
the size of capital markets in each country.
Finally, Article 140(1) of the Treaty requires this
report to take account of several other relevant
factors, namely âthe results of the integration of
markets, the situation and development of the
balances of payments on current account and an
examination of the development of unit labour
costs and other price indicesâ. These factors
are reviewed in Chapter 5 under the individual
criteria listed above. In the light of the launch of
the euro on 1 January 1999, there is no longer a
discussion of the development of the ECU.
2.2
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION WITH THE TREATIES
2.2.1 INTRODUCTION
Article 140(1) of the Treaty requires the ECB
(and the European Commission) to report, at
least once every two years or at the request of a
Member State with a derogation, to the Council
on the progress made by the Member States
with a derogation in ful
fi
lling their obligations
regarding the achievement of economic and
monetary union. These reports must include an
examination of the compatibility between the
national legislation of each Member State with
a derogation, including the statutes of its NCB,
and Articles 130 and 131 of the Treaty and
the Statute. This Treaty obligation of Member
States with a derogation is also referred to as
âlegal convergenceâ. When assessing legal
convergence, the ECB is not limited to making
a formal assessment of the letter of national
legislation, but may also consider whether
the implementation of the relevant provisions
complies with the spirit of the Treaties and
the Statute. The ECB is particularly concerned
about any signs of pressure being put on the
decision-making bodies of any Member Stateâs
NCB which would be inconsistent with the
spirit of the Treaty as regards central bank
independence. The ECB also sees the need
for the smooth and continuous functioning of
the NCBsâ decision-making bodies. The ECB
will closely monitor any developments prior to
making a
fi
nal positive assessment concluding
that a Member Stateâs national legislation is
compatible with the Treaty and the Statute.
MEMBER STATES WITH A DEROGATION
AND LEGAL CONVERGENCE
Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania and
Sweden, whose national legislation is examined
in this report, each have the status of a Member
State with a derogation, i.e. they have not yet
adopted the euro. Sweden was given the status of
a Member State with a derogation by a decision
of the Council of May 1998.
1
As far as the other
Member States are concerned, Articles 4
2
and 5
3
of the Acts concerning the conditions of
accession provide that: âEach of the new Member
Council Decision 98/317/EC of 3 May 1998 in accordance
1
with Article 109j(4) of the Treaty (OJ L 139, 11.5.1998, p. 30).
NOTE: The title of Decision 98/317/EC refers to the Treaty
establishing the European Community (prior to the renumbering
of the Articles of this Treaty in accordance with Article 12 of the
Treaty of Amsterdam); this provision has been repealed by the
Treaty of Lisbon.
Act concerning the conditions of accession of the Czech Republic,
2
the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Cyprus, the Republic
of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Hungary,
the Republic of Malta, the Republic of Poland, the Republic of
Slovenia and the Slovak Republic and the adjustments to the
Treaties on which the European Union is founded (OJ L 236,
23.9.2003, p. 33).
For Bulgaria and Romania, see Article 5 of the Act concerning
3
the conditions of accession of the Republic of Bulgaria and
Romania and the adjustments to the treaties on which the
European Union is founded (OJ L 157, 21.6.2005, p. 203).
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States shall participate in Economic and Monetary
Union from the date of accession as a Member
State with a derogation within the meaning of
[Article 139 of the Treaty]â.
The ECB has examined the level of legal
convergence in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland,
Romania and Sweden, as well as the legislative
measures that have been taken or need to be
taken by them to achieve this goal. This report
does not cover Denmark or the United Kingdom,
which are Member States with a special status
and which have not yet adopted the euro.
Protocol (No 16) on certain provisions
relating to Denmark, annexed to the Treaties,
provides that, in view of the notice given to
the Council by the Danish Government on
3 November 1993, Denmark has an exemption
and that the procedure for the abrogation of the
derogation will only be initiated at the request of
Denmark. As Article 130 of the Treaty applies to
Denmark, Danmarks Nationalbank has to ful
fi
l
the requirements of central bank independence.
The EMIâs Convergence Report of 1998
concluded that this requirement had been
ful
fi
lled. There has been no assessment of Danish
convergence since 1998 due to Denmarkâs
special status. Until such time as Denmark
noti
fi
es the Council that it intends to adopt the
euro, Danmarks Nationalbank does not need to
be legally integrated into the Eurosystem and no
Danish legislation needs to be adapted.
According to Protocol (No 15) on certain
provisions relating to the United Kingdom of
Great Britain and Northern Ireland, annexed
to the Treaties, the United Kingdom is under
no obligation to adopt the euro unless it
noti
fi
es the Council that it intends to do so.
On 30 October 1997 the United Kingdom noti
fi
ed
the Council that it did not intend to adopt the
euro on 1 January 1999 and this situation has
not changed. Pursuant to this noti
fi
cation, certain
provisions of the Treaty (including Articles 130
and 131) and of the Statute do not apply to the
United Kingdom. Accordingly, there is no current
legal requirement to ensure that national legislation
(including the Bank of Englandâs statutes)
is compatible with the Treaty and the Statute.
The aim of assessing legal convergence is to
facilitate the Councilâs decisions as to which
Member States ful
fi
l âtheir obligations regarding
the achievement of economic and monetary
unionâ (Article 140(1) of the Treaty). In the
legal domain, such conditions refer in particular
to central bank independence and to the NCBsâ
legal integration into the Eurosystem.
STRUCTURE OF THE LEGAL ASSESSMENT
The legal assessment broadly follows the
framework of the previous reports of the ECB
and the EMI on legal convergence, in particular
the ECBâs Convergence Reports of May 2008
(on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Sweden), May 2007 (on Cyprus and
Malta), December 2006 (on the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Hungary, Malta,
Poland, Slovakia and Sweden), May 2006
(on Lithuania and Slovenia), October 2004
(on the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia,
Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia,
Slovakia and Sweden), May 2002 (on Sweden)
and April 2000 (on Greece and Sweden),
and the EMIâs Convergence Report of March 1998.
The compatibility of national legislation is
considered in the light of legislation enacted
before 12 March 2010.
2.2.2
SCOPE OF ADAPTATION
2.2.2.1 AREAS OF ADAPTATION
For the purpose of identifying those areas where
national legislation needs to be adapted, the
following issues are examined:
compatibility with provisions on the
â
independence of NCBs in the Treaty
(Article 130) and the Statute (Articles 7 and
14.2) and with provisions on con
fi
dentiality
(Article 37 of the Statute);
compatibility with the prohibitions on
â
monetary
fi
nancing (Article 123 of the Treaty)
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and privileged access (Article 124 of the
Treaty) and compatibility with the single
spelling of the euro required by Union law;
and
legal integration of the NCBs into the
â
Eurosystem (in particular as regards
Articles 12.1 and 14.3 of the Statute).
2.2.2.2 âCOMPATIBILITYâ VERSUS
âHARMONISATIONâ
Article 131 of the Treaty requires national
legislation to be âcompatibleâ with the Treaties
and the Statute; any incompatibility must
therefore be removed. Neither the supremacy
of the Treaties and the Statute over national
legislation nor the nature of the incompatibility
affect the need to comply with this obligation.
The requirement for national legislation to be
âcompatibleâ does not mean that the Treaty
requires âharmonisationâ of the NCBsâ statutes,
either with each other or with the Statute.
National particularities may continue to exist to
the extent that they do not infringe the Unionâs
exclusive competence in monetary matters.
Indeed, Article 14.4 of the Statute permits NCBs
to perform functions other than those speci
fi
ed
in the Statute, to the extent that these do not
interfere with the ESCBâs objectives and tasks.
Provisions authorising such additional functions
in an NCBâs statutes are a clear example of
circumstances in which differences may remain.
Rather, the term âcompatibleâ indicates that
national legislation and the NCBsâ statutes need
to be adjusted to eliminate inconsistencies with
the Treaties and the Statute and to ensure the
necessary degree of integration of the NCBs
into the ESCB. In particular, any provisions that
infringe an NCBâs independence, as de
fi
ned
in the Treaty, and its role as an integral part of
the ESCB should be adjusted. It is therefore
insuf
fi
cient to rely solely on the primacy
of Union law over national legislation to
achieve this.
The obligation in Article 131 of the Treaty only
covers incompatibility with the Treaties and the
Statute. However, national legislation that is
incompatible with secondary Union legislation
should be brought into line with such secondary
legislation. The primacy of Union law does
not affect the obligation to adapt national
legislation. This general requirement derives
not only from Article 131 of the Treaty but also
from the case law of the Court of Justice of the
European Union.
4
The Treaties and the Statute do not prescribe the
manner in which national legislation should be
adapted. This may be achieved by referring to
the Treaty and the Statute, or by incorporating
provisions thereof and referring to their
provenance, or by deleting any incompatibility
or by a combination of these methods.
Furthermore, among other things as a tool for
achieving and maintaining the compatibility of
national legislation with the Treaties and the
Statute, the ECB must be consulted by the
Union institutions and by the Member States on
draft legislative provisions in its
fi
elds of
competence, pursuant to Articles 127(4) and
282(5) of the Treaty and Article 4 of the Statute.
Council Decision 98/415/EC of 29 June 1998
on the consultation of the European Central
Bank by national authorities regarding draft
legislative provisions
5
expressly requires the
Member States to take the measures necessary
to ensure compliance with this obligation.
2.2.3
INDEPENDENCE OF NCBS
As far as central bank independence and
con
fi
dentiality are concerned, national
legislation in the Member States that joined
the Union in 2004 or 2007 had to be adapted
to comply with the relevant provisions of
the Treaty and the Statute and be in force on
1 May 2004 and 1 January 2007 respectively.
Sweden had to bring the necessary adaptations
into force by the date of establishment of the
ESCB on 1 June 1998.
See, among others, Case 167/73
4
Commission of the European
Communities
v
French Republic
[1974] ECR 359 (âCode du
Travail Maritimeâ).
OJ L 189, 3.7.1998, p. 42.
5
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CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE
In November 1995 the EMI established a
list of features of central bank independence
(later described in detail in its 1998 Convergence
Report) which were the basis for assessing
the national legislation of the Member States
at that time, in particular the NCBsâ statutes.
The concept of central bank independence
includes various types of independence
that must be assessed separately, namely:
functional, institutional, personal and
fi
nancial
independence. Over the past few years, there has
been further re
fi
nement of the analysis of these
aspects of central bank independence in the
opinions adopted by the ECB. These aspects are
the basis for assessing the level of convergence
between the national legislation of the Member
States with a derogation and the Treaties and
the Statute.
FUNCTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Central bank independence is not an end in itself
but is instrumental in achieving an objective that
should be clearly de
fi
ned and should prevail over
any other objective. Functional independence
requires each NCBâs primary objective to be
stated in a clear and legally certain way and
to be fully in line with the primary objective
of price stability established by the Treaty.
It is served by providing the NCBs with the
necessary means and instruments for achieving
this objective independently of any other
authority. The Treatyâs requirement of central
bank independence re
fl
ects the generally held
view that the primary objective of price stability
is best served by a fully independent institution
with a precise de
fi
nition of its mandate. Central
bank independence is fully compatible with
holding NCBs accountable for their decisions,
which is an important aspect of enhancing
con
fi
dence in their independent status. This
entails transparency and dialogue with
third parties.
As regards timing, the Treaty is not clear
about when the NCBs of Member States
with a derogation must comply with the
primary objective of price stability set out in
Articles 127(1) and 282(2) of the Treaty and
Article 2 of the Statute. In the case of Sweden
it is not clear whether this obligation should
run from the date the ESCB was established
or from the date of adoption of the euro.
For those Member States that joined the Union
on 1 May 2004 or 1 January 2007, it is not
clear whether it should run from the date of
accession or from the date of adoption of the
euro. While Article 127(1) of the Treaty does
not apply to Member States with a derogation
(see Article 139(2)(c) of the Treaty), Article 2
of the Statute does apply to such Member States
(see Article 42.1 of the Statute). The ECB takes
the view that the obligation of the NCBs to
have price stability as their primary objective
runs from 1 June 1998 in the case of Sweden,
and from 1 May 2004 and 1 January 2007 for
the Member States that joined the Union on
these dates. This is based on the fact that one
of the guiding principles of the Union, namely
price stability (Article 119 of the Treaty),
also applies to Member States with a derogation.
It is also based on the Treaty objective that all
Member States should strive for macroeconomic
convergence, including price stability, which
is the intention behind these regular reports
of the ECB and the European Commission.
This conclusion is also based on the underlying
rationale of central bank independence, which
is only justi
fi
ed if the overall objective of price
stability has primacy.
The country assessments in this report are
based on these conclusions as to the timing of
the obligation of the NCBs of Member States
with a derogation to have price stability as their
primary objective.
INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
The principle of institutional independence
is expressly referred to in Article 130 of the
Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute. These two
articles prohibit the NCBs and members of their
decision-making bodies from seeking or taking
instructions from Union institutions or bodies,
from any government of a Member State or
from any other body. In addition, they prohibit
Union institutions, bodies, of
fi
ces or agencies,
and the governments of the Member States
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from seeking to in
fl
uence those members of
the NCBsâ decision-making bodies whose
decisions may affect the ful
fi
lment of the NCBsâ
ESCB-related tasks.
Whether an NCB is organised as a state-owned
body, a special public law body or simply
a public limited company, there is a risk
that in
fl
uence may be exerted by the
owner on its decision-making in relation to
ESCB-related tasks by virtue of such ownership.
Such in
fl
uence, whether exercised through
shareholdersâ rights or otherwise, may affect an
NCBâs independence and should therefore be
limited by law.
Prohibition on giving instructions
Rights of third parties to give instructions to NCBs,
their decision-making bodies or their members
are incompatible with the Treaty and the Statute
as far as ESCB-related tasks are concerned.
Any involvement of an NCB in the application
of measures to strengthen
fi
nancial stability
must be compatible with the Treaty, i.e. NCBsâ
functions must be performed in a manner that is
fully compatible with their institutional and
fi
nancial independence so as to safeguard the
proper performance of their tasks under the
Treaty and the Statute. To the extent that
national legislation provides for a role of an
NCB that goes beyond advisory functions and
requires it to assume additional tasks, it must be
ensured that these tasks will not affect the
NCBâs ability to carry out its ESCB-related
tasks from an operational and
fi
nancial
point of view.
6
Prohibition on approving, suspending, annulling
or deferring decisions
Rights of third parties to approve, suspend, annul
or defer an NCBâs decisions are incompatible
with the Treaty and the Statute as far as
ESCB-related tasks are concerned.
Prohibition on censoring decisions on legal
grounds
A right for bodies other than independent courts
to censor, on legal grounds, decisions relating
to the performance of ESCB-related tasks is
incompatible with the Treaty and the Statute,
since the performance of these tasks may not
be reassessed at the political level. A right of an
NCB Governor to suspend the implementation
of a decision adopted by the ESCB or by an
NCB decision-making body on legal grounds
and subsequently to submit it to a political
body for a
fi
nal decision would be equivalent to
seeking instructions from third parties.
Prohibition on participation in decision-making
bodies of an NCB with a right to vote
Participation by representatives of third
parties in an NCBâs decision-making body
with a right to vote on matters concerning the
performance by the NCB of ESCB-related tasks
is incompatible with the Treaty and the Statute,
even if such vote is not decisive.
Prohibition on ex ante consultation relating
to an NCBâs decision
An express statutory obligation for an NCB to
consult third parties ex ante provides the latter
with a formal mechanism to in
fl
uence the
fi
nal
decision and is therefore incompatible with the
Treaty and the Statute.
However, dialogue between an NCB and third
parties, even when based on statutory obligations
to provide information and exchange views,
is compatible with central bank independence
provided that:
this does not result in interference with the
â
independence of the members of the NCBâs
decision-making bodies;
the special status of Governors in their
â
capacity as members of the ECBâs General
Council is fully respected; and
con
fi
dentiality requirements resulting from
â
the Statute are observed.
Opinion CON/2009/93. All ECB opinions are published on the
6
ECBâs website at www.ecb.europa.eu.
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Discharge provided for the duties of members
of the NCBâs decision-making bodies
Statutory provisions regarding the discharge
provided by third parties (e.g. governments)
regarding the duties of members of the NCBâs
decision-making bodies (e.g. in relation to
accounts) should contain adequate safeguards,
so that such a power does not impinge on
the capacity of the individual NCB member
independently to adopt decisions in respect of
ESCB-related tasks (or implement decisions
adopted at ESCB level). Inclusion of an express
provision to this effect in the NCB statutes is
recommended.
PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
The Statuteâs provision on security of tenure
for members of NCBsâ decision-making bodies
further safeguards central bank independence.
NCB Governors are members of the General
Council of the ECB. Article 14.2 of the Statute
provides that NCB statutes must, in particular,
provide for a minimum term of of
fi
ce of
fi
ve years for Governors. It also protects
against the arbitrary dismissal of Governors
by providing that Governors may only be
relieved from of
fi
ce if they no longer ful
fi
l the
conditions required for the performance of their
duties or if they have been guilty of serious
misconduct, with the possibility of recourse
to the Court of Justice of the European Union.
NCB statutes must comply with this provision
as set out below.
Minimum term of office for Governors
In accordance with Article 14.2 of the Statute,
NCB statutes must provide for a minimum
term of of
fi
ce of
fi
ve years for a Governor.
This does not preclude longer terms of of
fi
ce,
while an inde
fi
nite term of of
fi
ce does not
require adaptation of the statutes provided the
grounds for the dismissal of a Governor are in
line with those of Article 14.2 of the Statute.
When an NCBâs statutes are amended, the
amending law should safeguard the security of
tenure of the Governor and of other members of
decision-making bodies who may have to
deputise for the Governor.
Grounds for dismissal of Governors
NCB statutes must ensure that Governors
may not be dismissed for reasons other than
those mentioned in Article 14.2 of the Statute.
The purpose of this requirement is to prevent
the authorities involved in the appointment
of Governors, particularly the government or
parliament, from exercising their discretion
to dismiss a Governor. NCB statutes should
either contain grounds for dismissal which are
compatible with those laid down in Article 14.2
of the Statute, or omit any mention of grounds
for dismissal (since Article 14.2 is directly
applicable). Once elected or appointed,
Governors may not be dismissed under
conditions other than those mentioned in
Article 14.2 of the Statute even if the Governors
have not yet taken up their duties.
Security of tenure and grounds for dismissal
of members of NCBsâ decision-making bodies,
other than Governors, who are involved
in the performance of ESCB-related tasks
Personal independence would be jeopardised if
the same rules for the security of tenure and
grounds for dismissal of Governors were not
also to apply to other members of the
decision-making bodies of NCBs involved in
the performance of ESCB-related tasks.
7
Various Treaty and Statute provisions require
comparable security of tenure. Article 14.2 of
the Statute does not restrict the security of tenure
of of
fi
ce to Governors, while Article 130 of the
Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute refer to
âmembers of the decision-making bodiesâ
of NCBs, rather than to Governors speci
fi
cally.
This applies in particular where a Governor is
â
fi
rst among equalsâ with colleagues with
equivalent voting rights or where such other
members may have to deputise for the
Governor.
See paragraph 8 of Opinion CON/2004/35; paragraph 8 of
7
Opinion CON/2005/26; paragraph 3.3 of Opinion CON/2006/44;
paragraph 2.6 of Opinion CON/2006/32; and paragraphs 2.3
and 2.4 of Opinion CON/2007/6.
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Right of judicial review
Members of the NCBsâ decision-making bodies
must have the right to submit any decision to
dismiss them to an independent court of law, in
order to limit the potential for political discretion
in evaluating the grounds for their dismissal.
Article 14.2 of the Statute stipulates that NCB
Governors who have been dismissed from of
fi
ce
may refer such a decision to the Court of Justice
of the European Union. National legislation
should either refer to the Statute or remain silent
on the right to refer such decision to the Court of
Justice of the European Union (as Article 14.2
of the Statute is directly applicable).
National legislation should also provide for
a right of review by the national courts of a
decision to dismiss any other member of the
decision-making bodies of the NCB involved
in the performance of ESCB-related tasks. This
right can either be a matter of general law or
can take the form of a speci
fi
c provision. Even
though this right may be available under the
general law, for reasons of legal certainty it
could be advisable to provide speci
fi
cally for
such a right of review.
Safeguards against conflicts of interest
Personal independence also entails ensuring that
no con
fl
ict of interest arises between the duties
of members of NCB decision-making bodies
involved in the performance of ESCB-related
tasks in relation to their respective NCBs
(and of Governors in relation to the ECB) and
any other functions which such members of
decision-making bodies may have and which
may jeopardise their personal independence.
As a matter of principle, membership of
a decision-making body involved in the
performance of ESCB-related tasks is
incompatible with the exercise of other
functions that might create a con
fl
ict of interest.
In particular, members of such decision-making
bodies may not hold an of
fi
ce or have an interest
that may in
fl
uence their activities, whether
through of
fi
ce in the executive or legislative
branches of the state or in regional or local
administrations, or through involvement in a
business organisation. Particular care should be
taken to prevent potential con
fl
icts of interest
on the part of non-executive members of
decision-making bodies.
FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
Even if an NCB is fully independent from a
functional, institutional and personal point
of view (i.e. this is guaranteed by the NCBâs
statutes), its overall independence would be
jeopardised if it could not autonomously avail
itself of suf
fi
cient
fi
nancial resources to ful
fi
l its
mandate (i.e. to perform the ESCB-related tasks
required of it under the Treaty and the Statute).
Member States may not put their NCBs in a
position where they have insuf
fi
cient
fi
nancial
resources to carry out their ESCB or Eurosystem-
related tasks, as applicable. It should be noted
that Articles 28.1 and 30.4 of the Statute provide
for the possibility of the ECB making further
calls on the NCBs to contribute to the ECBâs
capital and to make further transfers of foreign
reserves.
8
Moreover, Article 33.2 of the Statute
provides
9
that, in the event of a loss incurred by
the ECB which cannot be fully offset against the
general reserve fund, the ECBâs Governing
Council may decide to offset the remaining loss
against the monetary income of the relevant
fi
nancial year in proportion to and up to the
amounts allocated to the NCBs. The principle of
fi
nancial independence means that compliance
with these provisions requires an NCB to be
able to perform its functions unimpaired.
Additionally, the principle of
fi
nancial
independence requires an NCB to have suf
fi
cient
means not only to perform its ESCB-related
tasks but also its national tasks (e.g.
fi
nancing
its administration and own operations).
For all the reasons mentioned above,
fi
nancial
independence also implies that an NCB should
always be suf
fi
ciently capitalised. In particular,
any situation should be avoided whereby for a
prolonged period of time an NCBâs net equity
Article 30.4 of the Statute only applies within the Eurosystem.
8
Article 33.2 of the Statute only applies within the Eurosystem.
9
22
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
is below the level of its statutory capital or is
even negative, including where losses beyond
the level of capital and the reserves are carried
over. Any such situation may negatively
impact on the NCBâs ability to perform its
ESCB-related tasks but also its national tasks.
Moreover, such a situation may affect the
credibility of the Eurosystemâs monetary policy.
Therefore, the event of an NCBâs net equity
becoming less than its statutory capital or even
negative would require that the respective
Member State provides the NCB with an
appropriate amount of capital at least up
to the level of the statutory capital within a
reasonable period of time so as to comply
with the principle of
fi
nancial independence.
As concerns the ECB, the relevance of this
issue has already been recognised by the
Council by adopting Council Regulation (EC)
No 1009/2000 of 8 May 2000 concerning capital
increases of the European Central Bank.
10
It enables the Governing Council of the ECB
to decide on an actual increase at some point
in time in the future to sustain the adequacy
of the capital base to support the operations of
the ECB; NCBs should be
fi
nancially able to
respond to such ECB decision.
The concept of
fi
nancial independence should
be assessed from the perspective of whether any
third party is able to exercise either direct or
indirect in
fl
uence not only over an NCBâs tasks
but also over its ability to ful
fi
l its mandate,
both operationally in terms of manpower, and
fi
nancially in terms of appropriate
fi
nancial
resources. The aspects of
fi
nancial independence
set out below are particularly relevant in this
respect, and some of them have only been
re
fi
ned recently.
11
These are the features of
fi
nancial independence where NCBs are most
vulnerable to outside in
fl
uence.
Determination of budget
If a third party has the power to determine or
in
fl
uence an NCBâs budget, this is incompatible
with
fi
nancial independence unless the law
provides a safeguard clause so that such a
power is without prejudice to the
fi
nancial
means necessary for carrying out the NCBâs
ESCB-related tasks.
The accounting rules
The accounts should be drawn up either in
accordance with general accounting rules or in
accordance with rules speci
fi
ed by an NCBâs
decision-making bodies. If, instead, such rules
are speci
fi
ed by third parties, the rules must at
least take into account what has been proposed
by the NCBâs decision-making bodies.
The annual accounts should be adopted by
the NCBâs decision-making bodies, assisted
by independent accountants, and may be
subject to ex post approval by third parties
(e.g. the government or parliament). The NCBâs
decision-making bodies should be able to decide
on the calculation of the pro
fi
ts independently
and professionally.
Where an NCBâs operations are subject to the
control of a state audit of
fi
ce or similar body
charged with controlling the use of public
fi
nances, the scope of the control should be
clearly de
fi
ned by the legal framework and
should be without prejudice to the activities of
the NCBâs independent external auditors.
12
The state audit should be done on a non-political,
independent and purely professional basis.
Distribution of profits, NCBsâ capital
and financial provisions
With regard to pro
fi
t allocation, an NCBâs
statutes may prescribe how its pro
fi
ts are to be
allocated. In the absence of such provisions,
decisions on the allocation of pro
fi
ts should be
taken by the NCBâs decision-making bodies
on professional grounds, and should not be
subject to the discretion of third parties unless
there is an express safeguard clause stating that
OJ L 115, 16.5.2000, p. 1.
10
The main formative ECB opinions in this area are: CON/2002/16;
11
CON/2003/22; CON/2003/27; CON/2004/1; CON/2006/38;
CON/2006/47; CON/2007/8; CON/2008/13; CON/2008/68; and
CON/2009/32.
For the activities of the independent external auditors of the
12
NCBs see Article 27.1 of the Statute.
23
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2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
this is without prejudice to the
fi
nancial means
necessary for carrying out the NCBâs ESCB-
related tasks.
Pro
fi
ts may be distributed to the State budget
only after any accumulated losses from previous
years have been covered
13
and
fi
nancial
provisions deemed necessary to safeguard the
real value of the NCBâs capital and assets have
been created. Temporary or ad hoc legislative
measures amounting to instructions to the NCBs
in relation to the distribution of their pro
fi
ts are
not admissible.
14
Similarly, a tax on an NCBâs
unrealised capital gains would also impair the
principle of
fi
nancial independence.
15
A Member State may not impose reductions
of capital on an NCB without the ex ante
agreement of the NCBâs decision-making
bodies, which must aim to ensure that it retains
suf
fi
cient
fi
nancial means to ful
fi
l its mandate
under Article 127(2) of the Treaty and the
Statute as a member of the ESCB. For the
same reason, any amendment to the pro
fi
t
distribution rules of an NCB should only be
initiated and decided in cooperation with the
NCB, which is best placed to assess its required
level of reserve capital.
16
As regards
fi
nancial
provisions or buffers, NCBs must be free to
independently create
fi
nancial provisions to
safeguard the real value of their capital and
assets. Member States may also not hamper
NCBs from building up their reserve capital to
a level which is necessary for a member of the
Eurosystem to ful
fi
l its tasks.
17
Financial liability for supervisory authorities
Some Member States place their
fi
nancial
supervisory authorities within their NCB.
This poses no problems if such authorities
are subject to the NCBâs independent
decision-making. However, if the law provides
for separate decision-making by such supervisory
authorities, it is important to ensure that
decisions adopted by them do not endanger the
fi
nances of the NCB as a whole. In such cases,
national legislation should enable the NCB
to have ultimate control over any decision by
the supervisory authorities that could affect an
NCBâs independence, in particular its
fi
nancial
independence.
Autonomy in staff matters
Member States may not impair an NCBâs ability
to employ and retain the quali
fi
ed staff necessary
for the NCB to perform independently the tasks
conferred on it by the Treaty and the Statute.
Also, an NCB may not be put into a position
where it has limited control or no control over
its staff, or where the government of a
Member State can in
fl
uence its policy on staff
matters.
18
Autonomy in staff matters extends to
issues relating to staff pensions.
Ownership and property rights
Rights of third parties to intervene or to issue
instructions to an NCB in relation to the
property held by an NCB are incompatible with
the principle of
fi
nancial independence.
2.2.4 CONFIDENTIALITY
The obligation of professional secrecy for
ECB and NCB staff under Article 37 of the
Statute may give rise to similar provisions
in NCBsâ statutes or in the Member Statesâ
legislation. The primacy of Union law and rules
adopted thereunder also means that national
laws on access by third parties to documents
may not lead to infringements of the ESCBâs
con
fi
dentiality regime. The access of a state
audit of
fi
ce or similar body to an NCBâs
information and documents must be limited
and must be without prejudice to the ESCBâs
con
fi
dentiality regime to which the members
of NCBâs decision-making bodies and staff are
subject. NCBs should ensure that such bodies
protect the con
fi
dentiality of information and
Opinion CON/2009/85.
13
Opinion CON/2009/26.
14
Opinion CON/2009/63 and Opinion CON/2009/59.
15
Opinion CON/2009/83 and Opinion CON/2009/53.
16
Opinion CON/2009/26.
17
Opinion CON/2008/9 and Opinion CON/2008/10.
18
24
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
documents disclosed at a level corresponding to
that applied by the NCB.
2.2.5
PROHIBITION ON MONETARY FINANCING
AND PRIVILEGED ACCESS
On the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and the
prohibition on privileged access, the national
legislation of the Member States that joined
the European Union in 2004 or 2007 had to be
adapted to comply with the relevant provisions
of the Treaty and the Statute and be in force on
1 May 2004 and 1 January 2007 respectively.
Sweden had to bring the necessary adaptations
into force by 1 January 1995.
2.2.5.1 PROHIBITION ON MONETARY FINANCING
The monetary
fi
nancing prohibition is laid
down in Article 123(1) of the Treaty, which
prohibits overdraft facilities or any other type
of credit facility with the ECB or the NCBs of
Member States in favour of Union institutions,
bodies, of
fi
ces or agencies, central governments,
regional, local or other public authorities,
other bodies governed by public law, or public
undertakings of Member States; and the purchase
directly from these public sector entities by the
ECB or NCBs of debt instruments. The Treaty
contains one exemption from the prohibition;
it does not apply to publicly-owned credit
institutions which, in the context of the supply
of reserves by central banks, must be given the
same treatment as private credit institutions
(Article 123(2) of the Treaty). Moreover, the
ECB and the NCBs may act as
fi
scal agents
for the public sector bodies referred to above
(Article 21.2 of the Statute). The precise scope of
application of the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition
is further clari
fi
ed by Council Regulation (EC)
No 3603/93 of 13 December 1993 specifying
de
fi
nitions for the application of the prohibitions
referred to in Articles 104 and 104b(1) of the
Treaty [establishing the European Community]
19
(now Articles 123 and 125(1) of the Treaty
on the Functioning of the European Union),
which makes it clear that the prohibition includes
any
fi
nancing of the public sectorâs obligations
vis-Ă -vis third parties.
The monetary
fi
nancing prohibition is of
essential importance to ensuring that the
primary objective of monetary policy (namely
to maintain price stability) is not impeded.
Furthermore, central bank
fi
nancing of the
public sector lessens the pressure for
fi
scal
discipline. Therefore the prohibition must be
interpreted extensively in order to ensure its
strict application, subject only to the limited
exemptions contained in Article 123(2) of
the Treaty and Regulation (EC) No 3603/93.
Thus, even if Article 123(1) of the Treaty refers
speci
fi
cally to âcredit facilitiesâ, i.e. with the
obligation to repay the funds, the prohibition
may apply
a fortiori
to other forms of funding,
i.e. without the obligation to repay.
The ECBâs general stance on the compatibility
of national legislation with the prohibition has
primarily been developed within the framework
of consultations of the ECB by Member States
on draft national legislation under Articles 127(4)
and 282(5) of the Treaty.
20
NATIONAL LEGISLATION TRANSPOSING
THE MONETARY FINANCING PROHIBITION
In general, it is unnecessary to transpose
Article 123 of the Treaty, supplemented by
Regulation (EC) No 3603/93, into national
legislation as they are both directly applicable.
If, however, national legislative provisions
mirror these directly applicable Union provisions,
they may not narrow the scope of application of
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition or extend
the exemptions available under Union law.
For example, national legislation providing
for the
fi
nancing by the NCB of a Member
Stateâs
fi
nancial commitments to international
fi
nancial institutions (other than the IMF,
as provided for in Regulation (EC) No 3603/93)
or to third countries is incompatible with the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition.
OJ L 332, 31.12.1993, p. 1.
19
See Convergence Report 2008, page 23, footnote 13, containing a
20
list of formative EMI/ECB opinions in this area adopted between
May 1995 and March 2008. Other formative ECB opinions
in this area issued between April 2008 and March 2010 are:
CON/2008/46; CON/2008/80; CON/2009/59; and CON/2010/4.
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2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
FINANCING OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR OR OF PUBLIC
SECTOR OBLIGATIONS TO THIRD PARTIES
National legislation may not require an NCB to
fi
nance either the performance of functions by
other public sector bodies or the public sectorâs
obligations vis-Ă -vis third parties. For example,
national laws authorising or requiring an NCB
to
fi
nance judicial or quasi-judicial bodies that
are independent of the NCB and operate as an
extension of the state are incompatible with
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition. However,
the provision of resources by an NCB to a
supervisory authority does not give rise to
monetary
fi
nancing concerns insofar as the NCB
will be
fi
nancing the performance of a legitimate
fi
nancial supervisory task under national law
as part of its mandate, or as long as the NCB
can contribute to and have in
fl
uence on the
decision-making of the supervisory authorities.
21
Also, the distribution of central bank pro
fi
ts
which have not been fully realised, accounted
for and audited does not comply with the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition.
22
ASSUMPTION OF PUBLIC SECTOR LIABILITIES
National legislation which requires an NCB
to take over the liabilities of a previously
independent public body, as a result of a national
reorganisation of certain tasks and duties
(for example, in the context of a transfer to the
NCB of certain supervisory tasks previously
carried out by the state or independent public
authorities or bodies), without insulating the
NCB from
fi
nancial obligations resulting from
the prior activities of such a body, would be
incompatible with the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition.
FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR CREDIT AND/OR
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
National legislation which provides for
fi
nancing
by an NCB, granted independently and at their
full discretion, of credit institutions other than in
connection with central banking tasks (such as
monetary policy, payment systems or temporary
liquidity support operations), in particular the
support of insolvent credit and/or other
fi
nancial
institutions, would be incompatible with the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition. To this end,
inserting references to Article 123 of the Treaty
should be considered.
FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR DEPOSIT INSURANCE
AND INVESTOR COMPENSATION SCHEMES
The Deposit Guarantee Schemes Directive
23
and
the Investor Compensation Schemes Directive
24
provide that the costs of
fi
nancing deposit
guarantee schemes and investor compensation
schemes must be borne, respectively, by credit
institutions and investment
fi
rms themselves.
National legislation which provides for the
fi
nancing by an NCB of a national deposit
insurance scheme for credit institutions or a
national investor compensation scheme for
investment
fi
rms would be compatible with the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition only if it were
short term, addressed urgent situations, systemic
stability aspects were at stake, and decisions were
at the NCBâs discretion. To this end, inserting
references to Article 123 of the Treaty should
be considered.
FISCAL AGENCY FUNCTION
Article 21.2 of the Statute establishes that the
âECB and the national central banks may act
as
fi
scal agentsâ for âUnion institutions, bodies,
of
fi
ces or agencies, central governments, regional
local or other public authorities, other bodies
governed by public law, or public undertakings
of Member States.â The purpose of Article 21.2
of the Statute is, following transfer of the
monetary policy competence to the Eurosystem,
to enable NCBs to continue to provide the
fi
scal agent service traditionally provided by
central banks to governments and other public
entities without automatically breaching the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition. Regulation
(EC) No 3603/93 establishes a number of
explicit and narrowly drafted exemptions from
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition relating to the
fi
scal agency function, as follows (i) intra-day
Opinion CON/2010/4.
21
Opinion CON/2009/59.
22
Recital 23 of Directive 94/19/EC of the European Parliament and
23
of the Council of 30 May 1994 on deposit-guarantee schemes
(OJ L 135, 31.5.1994, p. 5).
Recital 23 of Directive 97/9/EC of the European Parliament
24
and of the Council of 3 March 1997 on investor-compensation
schemes (OJ L 84, 26.3.1997, p. 22).
26
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
credits to the public sector are permitted
provided that they remain limited to the day and
that no extension is possible;
25
(ii) crediting the
public sectorâs account with cheques issued by
third parties before the drawee bank has been
debited is permitted if a
fi
xed period of time
corresponding to the normal period for the
collection of cheques by the NCB concerned has
elapsed since receipt of the cheque, provided
that any
fl
oat which may arise is exceptional, is
of a small amount and averages out in the short
term;
26
and (iii) the holding of coins issued by
and credited to the public sector is permitted
where the amount of such assets remains at less
than 10 % of coins in circulation.
27
National legislation on the
fi
scal agency
function should be compatible with Union law
in general, and with the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition in particular. National legislation
that enables an NCB to hold government
deposits and to service government accounts
does not raise concerns about compliance with
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition as long as
such provisions do not enable the extension of
credit, including overnight overdrafts. However,
there would be a concern about compliance
with the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition if, for
example, national legislation were to enable
the remuneration of deposits or current account
balances above, rather than at or below, market
rates. Remuneration that is above market
rates constitutes a de facto credit, contrary to
the objective of the prohibition on monetary
fi
nancing, and might therefore undermine the
prohibitionâs objectives.
2.2.5.2 PROHIBITION ON PRIVILEGED ACCESS
As public authorities, NCBs may not take
measures granting privileged access by the public
sector to
fi
nancial institutions if such measures
are not based on prudential considerations.
Furthermore, the rules on the mobilisation
or pledging of debt instruments enacted by
the NCBs must not be used as a means of
circumventing the prohibition on privileged
access.
28
Member Statesâ legislation in this area
may not establish such privileged access.
This report focuses on the compatibility both of
national legislation or rules adopted by NCBs
and of the NCBsâ statutes with the Treaty
prohibition on privileged access. However, this
report is without prejudice to an assessment of
whether laws, regulations, rules or administrative
acts in Member States are used under the cover
of prudential considerations as a means of
circumventing the prohibition on privileged
access. Such an assessment is beyond the scope
of this report.
2.2.6
SINGLE SPELLING OF THE EURO
Article 3(4) of the Treaty on European Union
lays down that the âUnion shall establish an
economic and monetary union whose currency
is the euroâ. In the texts of the Treaties in all the
authentic languages written using the Roman
alphabet, the euro is consistently identi
fi
ed in
the nominative singular case as âeuroâ. In the
Greek alphabet text, the euro is spelled â
ÎľĎ ĎĎ
â
and in the Cyrillic alphabet text the euro is
spelled â
овŃĐž
â.
29
Consistent with this, Council
Regulation (EC) No 974/98 of 3 May 1998 on
the introduction of the euro
30
makes it clear that
the name of the single currency must be the
same in all the of
fi
cial languages of the Union,
taking into account the existence of different
alphabets. The Treaties thus require a single
spelling of the word âeuroâ in the nominative
singular case in all Union and national legislative
See Article 4 of Regulation (EC) No 3603/93.
25
See Article 5 of Regulation (EC) No 3603/93.
26
See Article 6 of Regulation (EC) No 3603/93.
27
See Article 3(2) of and recital 10 of Council Regulation (EC)
28
No 3604/93 of 13 December 1993 specifying de
fi
nitions for
the application of the prohibition of privileged access referred
to in Article 104a [now Article 124] of the Treaty (OJ L 332,
31.12.1993, p. 4).
The âDeclaration by the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of
29
Hungary and the Republic of Malta on the spelling of the name
of the single currency in the Treatiesâ, annexed to the Treaties,
states that; âWithout prejudice to the uni
fi
ed spelling of the
name of the single currency of the European Union referred to
in the Treaties as displayed on banknotes and on coins, Latvia,
Hungary and Malta declare that the spelling of the name of the
single currency, including its derivatives as applied throughout
the Latvian, Hungarian and Maltese text of the Treaties, has no
effect on the existing rules of the Latvian, Hungarian or Maltese
languagesâ.
OJ L 139, 11.5.1998, p. 1.
30
27
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2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
provisions, taking into account the existence
of different alphabets.
In view of the exclusive competence of the
Union to determine the name of the single
currency, any deviations from this rule are
incompatible with the Treaties and should be
eliminated. While this principle applies to all
types of national legislation, the assessment
in the country chapters focuses on the NCBsâ
statutes and the euro changeover laws.
2.2.7
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF NCBS INTO THE
EUROSYSTEM
Provisions in national legislation (in particular
an NCBâs statutes, but also other legislation)
which would prevent the performance of
Eurosystem-related tasks or compliance with
the ECBâs decisions are incompatible with the
effective operation of the Eurosystem once the
Member State concerned has adopted the euro.
National legislation therefore has to be adapted
to ensure compatibility with the Treaty and the
Statute in respect of Eurosystem-related tasks.
To comply with Article 131 of the Treaty,
national legislation had to be adjusted to ensure
its compatibility by the date of establishment
of the ESCB (as regards Sweden) and by
1 May 2004 and 1 January 2007 (as regards the
Member States which joined the Union on these
dates). Nevertheless, statutory requirements
relating to the full legal integration of an NCB
into the Eurosystem need only enter into force
at the moment that full integration becomes
effective, i.e. the date on which the Member State
with a derogation adopts the euro.
The main areas examined in this report are
those in which statutory provisions may hinder
an NCBâs compliance with the Eurosystemâs
requirements. These include provisions that
could prevent the NCB from taking part in
implementing the single monetary policy,
as de
fi
ned by the ECBâs decision-making bodies,
or hinder a Governor from ful
fi
lling their duties
as a member of the ECBâs Governing Council,
or which do not respect the ECBâs prerogatives.
Distinctions are made between economic policy
objectives, tasks,
fi
nancial provisions, exchange
rate policy and international cooperation.
Finally, other areas where an NCBâs statutes
may need to be adapted are mentioned.
2.2.7.1 ECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES
The full integration of an NCB into the
Eurosystem requires its statutory objectives to
be compatible with the ESCBâs objectives, as
laid down in Article 2 of the Statute. Among
other things, this means that statutory objectives
with a ânational
fl
avourâ â for example, where
statutory provisions refer to an obligation to
conduct monetary policy within the framework
of the general economic policy of the
Member State concerned â need to be adapted.
2.2.7.2 TASKS
The tasks of an NCB of a Member State
whose currency is the euro are predominantly
determined by the Treaty and the Statute, given
that NCBâs status as an integral part of the
Eurosystem. In order to comply with Article 131
of the Treaty, provisions on tasks in an NCBâs
statutes therefore need to be compared with the
relevant provisions of the Treaty and the Statute,
and any incompatibility must be removed.
31
This applies to any provision that, after adoption
of the euro and integration into the Eurosystem,
constitutes an impediment to carrying out
ESCB-related tasks and in particular to
provisions which do not respect the ESCBâs
powers under Chapter IV of the Statute.
Any national legislative provisions relating to
monetary policy must recognise that the Unionâs
monetary policy is to be carried out through the
Eurosystem.
32
An NCBâs statutes may contain
provisions on monetary policy instruments.
Such provisions should be comparable to those
in the Treaty and the Statute, and any
incompatibility must be removed in order to
comply with Article 131 of the Treaty.
In the context of recent national legislative
initiatives to address the turmoil in the
fi
nancial
See, in particular, Articles 127 and 128 of the Treaty and
31
Articles 3 to 6 and 16 of the Statute.
First indent of Article 127(2) of the Treaty.
32
28
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Convergence Report
May 2010
markets, the ECB has emphasised that any
distortion in the national segments of the euro
area money market should be avoided, as this
may impair the implementation of the single
monetary policy. In particular, this applies
to the extension of State guarantees to cover
interbank deposits.
33
Member States must ensure that national
legislative measures addressing liquidity
problems of businesses or professionals,
for example their debts to
fi
nancial institutions,
do not have a negative impact on market
liquidity. In particular, such measures may not
be inconsistent with the principle of an open
market economy, as re
fl
ected in Article 3 of
the Treaty on European Union, as this could
hinder the
fl
ow of credit, materially in
fl
uence
the stability of
fi
nancial institutions and
markets and therefore affect the performance of
Eurosystem tasks.
34
National legislative provisions assigning the
exclusive right to issue banknotes to the NCB
must recognise that, once the euro is adopted,
the ECBâs Governing Council has the exclusive
right to authorise the issue of euro banknotes,
pursuant to Article 128(1) of the Treaty and
Article 16 of the Statute, while the right to issue
euro banknotes belongs to the ECB and the
NCBs. National legislative provisions enabling
the government to in
fl
uence issues such as
the denominations, production, volume or
withdrawal of euro banknotes must also either
be repealed or recognition must be given to the
ECBâs powers with regard to euro banknotes,
as set out in the provisions of the Treaty and
the Statute. Irrespective of the division of
responsibilities in relation to coins between
governments and NCBs, the relevant provisions
must recognise the ECBâs power to approve
the volume of issue of euro coins once the euro
is adopted. A Member State may not consider
currency in circulation as its NCBâs debt to
the government of that Member State, as this
would defeat the concept of a single currency
and be incompatible with the requirements of
Eurosystem legal integration.
35
With regard to foreign reserve management,
36
any Member State that has adopted the euro
and which does not transfer its of
fi
cial foreign
reserves
37
to its NCB is in breach of the
Treaty. In addition, any right of a third party â
for example, the government or parliament â to
in
fl
uence an NCBâs decisions with regard to
the management of the of
fi
cial foreign reserves
would be inconsistent with the third indent
of Article 127(2) of the Treaty. Furthermore,
NCBs have to provide the ECB with foreign
reserve assets in proportion to their shares in the
ECBâs subscribed capital. This means that there
must be no legal obstacles to NCBs transferring
foreign reserve assets to the ECB.
Similarly, intervention in the performance of
other Eurosystem tasks, such as the management
of foreign reserves, by introducing taxation
of theoretical and unrealised capital gains is
not permitted.
38
2.2.7.3 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
The
fi
nancial provisions in the Statute comprise
rules on
fi
nancial accounts,
39
auditing,
40
capital
subscription,
41
the transfer of foreign reserve
assets
42
and the allocation of monetary income.
43
NCBs must be able to comply with their
obligations under these provisions and therefore
any incompatible national provisions must
be repealed.
2.2.7.4 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
A Member State with a derogation may retain
national legislation which provides that the
government is responsible for the exchange rate
Opinion CON/2009/99.
33
Opinion CON/2010/8.
34
Opinion CON/2008/34.
35
Third indent of Article 127(2) of the Treaty.
36
With the exception of foreign-exchange working balances, which
37
Member State governments may retain pursuant to Article 127(3)
of the Treaty.
Opinion CON/2009/63.
38
Article 26 of the Statute.
39
Article 27 of the Statute.
40
Article 28 of the Statute.
41
Article 30 of the Statute.
42
Article 32 of the Statute.
43
29
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
2 F R A M E W O R K
F O R
A N A L Y S I S
policy of that Member State, with a consultative
and/or executive role being granted to the NCB.
However, by the time that a Member State
adopts the euro, such legislation must re
fl
ect
the fact that responsibility for the euro areaâs
exchange rate policy has been transferred to the
Union level in accordance with Articles 138 and
219 of the Treaty.
2.2.7.5 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
For the adoption of the euro, national legislation
must be compatible with Article 6.1 of the
Statute, which provides that in the
fi
eld of
international cooperation involving the tasks
entrusted to the Eurosystem, the ECB decides
how the ESCB is represented. National
legislation allowing an NCB to participate in
international monetary institutions must make
such participation subject to the ECBâs approval
(Article 6.2 of the Statute).
2.2.7.6 MISCELLANEOUS
In addition to the above issues, in the case of
certain Member States there are other areas
where national provisions need to be adapted
(for example in the area of clearing and payment
systems and the exchange of information).
31
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
3 T H E S T A T E
O F E C O N O M I C
C O N V E R G E N C E
3
THE STATE OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE
Compared with the situation described in the
2008 Convergence Report, in many countries
important challenges have come to the fore
related to previously accumulated imbalances
and vulnerabilities, which have led to a deep
adjustment process over recent years. Deepened
by the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis, real
GDP in most countries under review collapsed
or declined strongly. While this weakening
of economic activity and external in
fl
uences
contributed to dampening in
fl
ation,
fi
scal
positions worsened sharply and country risk
premia, as evidenced by long-term interest
rates, rose signi
fi
cantly. The global
fi
nancial
and economic crisis had a relatively strong
impact on most central and eastern European
countries, as their previous economic expansion
had been
fi
nanced by relying quite heavily
on cross-border capital in
fl
ows. Once risk
aversion towards the region increased and
fi
nancing conditions tightened, the regionâs
macroeconomic imbalances made them highly
vulnerable. In addition, many economies in the
region were relatively export-oriented, and were
thus signi
fi
cantly affected by the strong decline
in foreign demand.
Regarding the price stability criterion, only three
countries examined in this report have 12-month
average in
fl
ation rates below the reference
value. In the other six countries, in
fl
ation is
above â in several cases well above â the
reference value, despite a considerable
weakening in economic activity in most
countries. As noted above, the
fi
scal situation in
the majority of the countries has deteriorated
markedly compared with 2008, re
fl
ecting
signi
fi
cantly worsening macroeconomic
conditions. Six of the nine countries are currently
subject to a Council decision on the existence of
an excessive de
fi
cit. Only three of these six
countries also had excessive de
fi
cits in 2008.
Whereas in 2008 four of the countries that are
under review in this report had a
fi
scal
de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio below the 3% reference
value speci
fi
ed in the Treaty or a
fi
scal
surplus, in 2009 only two countries posted
de
fi
cits below 3% of GDP. Still, all countries
currently under review have a general
government debt-to-GDP ratio below the
60% reference value, with the exception of one
country. However, in all the countries this ratio
has increased, in some cases signi
fi
cantly, since
2008. Regarding the exchange rate, three of the
currencies examined in this report are in
ERM II, just as they were in 2008. Over the past
two years,
fi
nancial markets of countries
participating in ERM II have experienced
periods of increased volatility, which gave rise
to severe tensions within ERM II. At the same
time, outside ERM II, exchange rates exhibited
strong
fl
uctuations in most countries under
review during the past two years. With regard to
the convergence of long-term interest rates, only
two countries reviewed in this report are below
the reference value
1
, whereas in 2008 seven
(out of ten) countries had interest rates below
the reference value.
2
When the ful
fi
lment of the convergence criteria
is examined, sustainability is of key importance.
Adoption of the euro is an irrevocable process.
Therefore, convergence must be achieved on
a lasting basis and not just at a given point in
time. To achieve a high degree of sustainable
convergence, efforts need to be carried
substantially further in all countries concerned.
This applies,
fi
rst and foremost, to the need
to achieve and maintain price stability on a
lasting basis, as well as to the need to reduce
the high budget de
fi
cits that have emerged in
several Member States during the
fi
nancial and
economic crisis and to achieve and maintain
sound public
fi
nances.
Lasting policy adjustments are also required
in many of the countries on account of
the combination of the following factors:
(i) The further convergence of income levels
in most Member States covered in this report,
Estonia does not have a long-term interest rate indicator and
1
a direct comparison with the reference value is therefore not
possible.
When reading this report, it should be kept in mind that, of the ten
2
countries examined in the 2008 Convergence Report, Slovakia
has, in the meantime, adopted the euro. This change in the
composition of the group of countries under review is important
when making a direct comparison between the
fi
ndings of the
two reports.
32
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
which may put additional upward pressure on
prices or nominal exchange rates (or both).
(ii) More generally, lasting policy adjustments
are needed to avoid a renewed build-up of
macroeconomic imbalances in the future.
This risk exists, in particular, if the income
convergence process is accompanied by renewed
strong credit growth and asset price increases,
fuelled, for example, by low or negative real
interest rates. (iii) Many countries need to
shift resources from the non-tradable sector to
the tradable sector in order to achieve a more
balanced convergence, implying a stronger
growth contribution from the export sector.
(iv) Lasting policy adjustments are also required
on account of the projected demographic
changes, which are expected to be of a rapid and
substantial nature.
THE PRICE STABILITY CRITERION
Over the 12-month reference period from
April 2009 to March 2010, in
fl
ation was very
low in the EU as a result of negative global price
shocks and the signi
fi
cant downturn in economic
activity in most countries. Accordingly, the
reference value for the criterion on price stability
was 1.0%. This value was calculated by adding
1.5 percentage points to the unweighted
arithmetic average of the rate of HICP in
fl
ation
over the 12 months in Portugal (-0.8%),
Estonia (-0.7%) and Belgium (-0.1%). Prices
in Ireland decreased to an even greater extent
and were judged to be an outlier and, therefore,
excluded from the calculation of the reference
value (see Box 1 in Chapter 2). Focusing on the
performance of individual Member States over
the reference period, three of the nine countries
examined (the Czech Republic, Estonia and
Latvia) had average HICP in
fl
ation rates
below the reference value. HICP in
fl
ation in
the other six countries was above the reference
value, with the largest deviations being
observed in Romania, Hungary and Poland
(see the overview table).
Looking back over the past ten years, in
fl
ation
in most of the central and eastern European
countries under review initially declined
from relatively high levels in the early 2000s.
Between 2003 and 2005, however, in
fl
ation
started to increase in most of the countries under
review. In several countries in
fl
ation accelerated
strongly in the second half of the decade,
reaching levels above 10% in some cases.
Annual average rates peaked in 2008, before
declining substantially in 2009. Although this
general pattern applied to most countries, there
were some noteworthy exceptions, particularly
during the last few years of the decade.
Among the countries assessed, the increase
in in
fl
ation in the period up to 2008 and its
subsequent decline in 2009 were most pronounced
in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
In other countries, such as Poland and particularly
Sweden, in
fl
ation developments remained more
moderate and were less volatile than in the rest
of the group. In Romania, in
fl
ation rates were
considerably higher than in the other countries
even though they followed a downward trend
for most of the decade.
In
fl
ation developments during recent years
were, in most countries under review, very much
driven by robust economic growth and rising
macroeconomic imbalances in the period up to
2008, followed by an abrupt economic slowdown
and, thereafter, a correction of these imbalances.
Moreover, shocks in global commodity markets
had a signi
fi
cant impact on in
fl
ation. The global
fi
nancial and economic crisis had a relatively
strong impact on most central and eastern
European countries, as their previous economic
expansion had been
fi
nanced by relying
quite heavily on cross-border capital in
fl
ows.
Once risk aversion towards the region increased
and
fi
nancing conditions tightened, the regionâs
macroeconomic imbalances had to be corrected
abruptly. In addition, many economies in the
region were relatively export-oriented, leaving
them vulnerable to the strong decline in foreign
demand. Some countries in the region were
affected particularly severely as a result of
the fact that they had built up considerable
macroeconomic imbalances, as re
fl
ected in very
large external de
fi
cits and rapidly rising credit
and asset prices. As a result, macroeconomic
conditions weakened abruptly, particularly in
late 2008 and early 2009. Output fell in most
33
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
3 T H E S T A T E
O F E C O N O M I C
C O N V E R G E N C E
of the countries under review in the course of
2009, as exports collapsed, domestic demand
weakened, corporate pro
fi
ts decreased and
labour market conditions weakened. In most
economies with
fi
xed exchange rates, the need
to restore competitiveness resulted in a decline
in wages and prices in the absence of exchange
rate
fl
exibility. In countries with more
fl
exible
exchange rates, currency depreciations in early
2009 slowed the decline in in
fl
ation. In addition
to the sharp decline in economic activity,
in
fl
ationary pressures in 2009 also eased as a
result of the decline in energy and food prices,
after these prices had peaked in mid-2008.
Looking ahead, forecasts by major international
institutions for the coming years indicate that
in
fl
ation in most countries is likely to remain
Overview table
Economic indicators of convergence
Price
stability
Government budgetary
position
Exchange rate
Long-term
interest
rate
HICP
in
fl
ation
1)
Country in
excessive
de
fi
cit
2)
Gerneral
government
surplus (+)
or de
fi
cit (-)
3)
General
government
gross debt
3)
Currency
participating
in ERM II
4)
Exchange
rate vis-Ă -vis
euro
5)
Long-term
interest
rate
6)
Bulgaria
2008
12.0
No
1.8
14.1
No
0.0
5.4
2009
2.5
No
-3.9
14.8
No
0.0
7.2
2010
1.7
1)
No
2)
-2.8
17.4
No
4)
0.0
4)
6.9
6)
Czech Republic
2008
6.3
Yes
-2.7
30.0
No
10.2
4.6
2009
0.6
Yes
-5.9
35.4
No
-6.0
4.8
2010
0.3
1)
Yes
2)
-5.7
39.8
No
4)
2.6
4)
4.7
6)
Estonia
2008
10.6
No
-2.7
4.6
Yes
0.0
...
7)
2009
0.2
No
-1.7
7.2
Yes
0.0
...
7)
2010
-0.7
1)
No
2)
-2.4
9.6
Yes
4)
0.0
4)
...
7)
Latvia
2008
15.3
No
-4.1
19.5
Yes
-0.4
6.4
2009
3.3
Yes
-9.0
36.1
Yes
-0.4
12.4
2010
0.1
1)
Yes
2)
-8.6
48.5
Yes
4)
-0.4
4)
12.7
6)
Lithuania
2008
11.1
No
-3.3
15.6
Yes
0.0
5.6
2009
4.2
Yes
-8.9
29.3
Yes
0.0
14.0
2010
2.0
1)
Yes
2)
-8.4
38.6
Yes
4)
0.0
4)
12.1
6)
Hungary
2008
6.0
Yes
-3.8
72.9
No
-0.1
8.2
2009
4.0
Yes
-4.0
78.3
No
-11.5
9.1
2010
4.8
1)
Yes
2)
-4.1
78.9
No
4)
4.5
4)
8.4
6)
Poland
2008
4.2
Yes
-3.7
47.2
No
7.2
6.1
2009
4.0
Yes
-7.1
51.0
No
-23.2
6.1
2010
3.9
1)
Yes
2)
-7.3
53.9
No
4)
8.4
4)
6.1
6)
Romania
2008
7.9
No
-5.4
13.3
No
-10.4
7.7
2009
5.6
Yes
-8.3
23.7
No
-15.1
9.7
2010
5.0
1)
Yes
2)
-8.0
30.5
No
4)
2.9
4)
9.4
6)
Sweden
2008
3.3
No
2.5
38.3
No
-3.9
3.9
2009
1.9
No
-0.5
42.3
No
-10.4
3.3
2010
2.1
1)
No
2)
-2.1
42.6
No
4)
6.8
4)
3.3
6)
Reference value
8)
1.0%
-3.0%
60.0%
6.0%
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
1) Average annual percentage change. Data for 2010 refer to the period April 2009-March 2010.
2) Refers to whether a country was subject to an EU Council decision on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit for at least part of the year.
The information for 2010 refers to the period until the cut-off date for statistics (23 April 2010).
3) As a percentage of GDP. Data for 2010 are taken from the European Commission spring 2010 forecasts.
4) The information for 2010 refers to the period until the cut-off date for statistics (23 April 2010).
5) Average annual percentage change. Data for 2010 are calculated as a percentage change of the average over the period
1 January 2010-23 April 2010 compared with the average of 2009. A positive (negative) number denotes an appreciation (depreciation)
vis-Ă -vis the euro.
6) Average annual interest rate. Data for 2010 refer to the period April 2009-March 2010.
7) For Estonia no long-term interest rate is available.
8) The reference value refers to the period April 2009-March 2010 for HICP in
fl
ation and for long-term interest rates. For the criterion on
the government budgetary position, the reference year is 2009.
34
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
below the average rates seen in the years prior to
the crisis. A rather subdued outlook for domestic
demand is likely to dampen price pressures in
most countries under review. However, upside
risks to in
fl
ation exist. Notably, increased global
commodity prices (particularly energy and food)
would have an upward effect on consumer prices
in many countries. Further increases in indirect
taxes and administered prices, stemming from
the need for
fi
scal consolidation, may further
add to in
fl
ationary pressures in the years to
come. In addition, as the catching-up process
continues in the central and eastern European
countries under review, it may lead to renewed
upward pressures on prices and/or the nominal
exchange rate, although it is dif
fi
cult to assess
the exact size of this effect. The risk of renewed
in
fl
ationary pressures will be particularly high
if the next upswing is again accompanied by
renewed strong credit growth and asset price
increases fuelled by low real interest rates.
An environment conducive to sustainable price
stability in the countries covered in this report
will require the conduct of a stability-oriented
monetary policy. Creating, maintaining or
strengthening an environment supportive of
price stability will, in addition, crucially depend
on further
fi
scal policy efforts, particularly
the implementation of credible consolidation
paths. Wage increases should not exceed labour
productivity growth and should take into account
labour market conditions and developments
in competitor countries. In addition, continued
efforts to reform product and labour markets
are needed in order to increase
fl
exibility
and maintain favourable conditions for
economic expansion and employment growth.
In ERM II countries, given the limited room
for manoeuvre for monetary policy under the
current unilateral tight exchange rate pegs, it is
imperative that other policy areas support the
capacity of the economy to cope with country-
speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid the re-emergence
of macroeconomic imbalances.
THE GOVERNMENT BUDGETARY POSITION
CRITERION
With the exceptions of Bulgaria, Estonia and
Sweden, all Member States under review are,
at the time of this report, subject to a Council
decision on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit.
Deadlines for correcting the excessive de
fi
cit
situation are set at 2011 for Hungary, at 2012
for Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania
and at 2013 for the Czech Republic. All six
countries posted a
fi
scal de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio
above the 3% reference value in 2009 and,
with the exception of Hungary (4.0%), all
were close to or above 6% of GDP. Bulgaria
also posted a budget de
fi
cit ratio above the 3%
reference value, while Estonia and Sweden
recorded de
fi
cits below this level. The European
Commission is initiating an excessive de
fi
cit
procedure against Bulgaria by preparing a report
under Article 126(3). Overall, in the majority of
the countries, the
fi
scal situation deteriorated
markedly compared with 2008, re
fl
ecting
signi
fi
cantly
worsening
macroeconomic
conditions. It should be noted that several
non-euro area Member States experienced
pro-cyclical
fi
scal loosening ahead of the crisis.
At the same time, budgetary developments
in 2009 also re
fl
ected the differentiated
fi
scal
policy response of the nine Member States to
the
fi
nancial and economic crisis. In Latvia,
Hungary and Romania, which received
fi
nancial
assistance from, inter alia, the EU and the IMF,
the related adjustment programmes called for
strict
fi
scal consolidation. Bulgaria, Estonia
and Lithuania implemented comprehensive
consolidation measures aimed at containing the
rapid budgetary deterioration. In Poland, the
fi
scal impact of allowing automatic stabilisers
to operate was partly offset by spending cuts.
By contrast, in the Czech Republic,
fi
scal policy
re
fl
ected both the fact that automatic stabilisers
were allowed to operate and the fact that there
were some government stimulus measures.
In Sweden, a signi
fi
cant
fi
scal stimulus package
was implemented in 2009.
35
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
3 T H E S T A T E
O F E C O N O M I C
C O N V E R G E N C E
For 2010, the European Commission forecasts
the de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio to remain above the
3% reference value in all countries that are
the subject of an excessive de
fi
cit procedure.
Only Bulgaria, Estonia and Sweden are
projected to post budget de
fi
cits below 3% of
GDP in 2010.
Government debt-to-GDP ratios increased in
all nine Member States under review, in some
cases substantially, re
fl
ecting, inter alia, large
fi
scal de
fi
cits, the deteriorating macroeconomic
environment and interventions in support of
fi
nancial institutions. Only Hungary had a debt-
to-GDP ratio above the 60% of GDP reference
value in 2009, which increased by 5.4 percentage
points from the previous yearâs level to 78.3%
of GDP. In the other countries debt ratios were
lower. In some of the countries, governments
incurred contingent liabilities during the crisis
in the form of guarantees.
Looking back at the period 2000-09, government
debt-to-GDP ratios increased substantially in
Latvia (23.8 percentage points), Hungary (23.3),
the Czech Republic (16.9) and Poland (14.2)
and to a considerably lesser extent in Lithuania,
Estonia and Romania. By contrast, in Bulgaria
and Sweden, the 2009 debt ratio stood clearly
below that of 2000. For 2010, the European
Commission projects a rise, in some cases
substantial, in the debt ratio in all nine Member
States under review.
Looking ahead, it is of the utmost importance
for the countries examined to achieve and
maintain sound and sustainable
fi
scal positions.
Countries that are subject to a Council decision
on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit must
comply with their excessive de
fi
cit procedure
commitments in a credible and timely manner
in order to bring their budget de
fi
cits below the
reference value in accordance with the agreed
deadline. Further consolidation is also required
in those other countries that have yet to attain
their medium-term budgetary objectives.
Overall, further consolidation would make it
possible to deal with the budgetary challenges
related to the ageing of the population. Strong
fi
scal frameworks should support
fi
scal
consolidation and limit slippages in public
expenditure, while helping to prevent a re-
emergence of macroeconomic imbalances.
Consolidation strategies should focus on
increasing the quality of public
fi
nances
by strengthening productivity-enhancing
investment.
THE EXCHANGE RATE CRITERION
Among the countries examined in this
report, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are
currently participating in ERM II. The
currencies of all of these Member States
had been in ERM II for more than two
years prior to the convergence examination,
as laid down in Article 140 of the Treaty.
The agreements on participation in ERM II
were based on a number of policy commitments
by the respective authorities, relating, inter alia,
to pursuing sound
fi
scal policies, promoting
wage moderation, containing credit growth and
implementing further structural reforms. In all
cases, there were unilateral commitments on
the part of the countries concerned regarding
the maintenance of narrower
fl
uctuation
bands. These unilateral commitments place no
additional obligations on the ECB. In particular,
it was accepted that Estonia and Lithuania could
join ERM II with their existing currency board
arrangements in place. The Latvian authorities
also declared, as a unilateral commitment,
that they would maintain the exchange rate of
the lats at its central rate against the euro with
a
fl
uctuation band of Âą1%. The currencies of
the other six countries remained outside the
exchange rate mechanism during this period.
Within ERM II, none of the central
rates of the currencies examined in this
report were devalued in the period under
review (24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010).
The Estonian kroon and the Lithuanian litas
traded continuously at their respective central
rates. In contrast, the exchange rate volatility
of the Latvian lats vis-Ă -vis the euro within the
Âą1% unilaterally set
fl
uctuation band peaked
in July 2009, before decreasing thereafter.
There were several occasions of severe market
36
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
tensions, when the Latvian currency traded
close to the weaker limit of the unilateral
fl
uctuation band. The collapse of Lehman
Brothers in September 2008, the unfavourable
economic outlook for Latvia, rumours regarding
the possible devaluation of its ERM II central
rate, credit rating downgrades by several rating
agencies and the growing liquidity tensions
in the banking system characterised a
fi
rst
period of severe tensions between October and
December 2008. As these tensions spilled over
into balance of payments problems, Latvia was
forced to seek international
fi
nancial assistance
and agreed to implement a determined economic
adjustment programme in order to stabilise the
fi
nancial sector, restore con
fi
dence and regain
competitiveness. A second episode of severe
tensions occurred between March and June 2009,
re
fl
ecting the rapid deterioration of the Latvian
economy and government
fi
nances, further
downgrades of Latviaâs sovereign credit ratings
and investorsâ concerns about the ful
fi
lment of
the conditions agreed under the international
fi
nancial assistance. This might have also
affected
fi
nancial market volatility in Estonia
and Lithuania. The situation in Latvia improved
in June 2009, when the plan for the 2009 budget
cuts was unveiled. Uncertainties surrounding
the adoption of
fi
scal measures by the Latvian
Parliament in September 2009 led to another
period of exchange rate pressure. The Latvian
lats traded close to the weaker end of the Âą1%
unilaterally set
fl
uctuation band in October 2009.
Eesti Pank entered into a precautionary
agreement with Sveriges Riksbank in 2009,
which was not drawn upon and had expired by
the end of 2009. Latvijas Banka entered into a
swap agreement with Sveriges Riksbank and
Danmarks Nationalbank in 2008, which had also
expired by the end of 2009.
The Bulgarian currency did not participate
in ERM II but was pegged to the euro within
the framework of a currency board agreement.
The other currencies outside ERM II all
weakened signi
fi
cantly against the euro in
the period under review. These currencies
were subject to downward pressures between
late 2008 and March 2009 in the context of
heightened uncertainty in the global
fi
nancial
markets primarily re
fl
ecting the collapse of
Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the
unfavourable economic outlook in the countries
and investorsâ concerns about external
vulnerabilities amid increased risk aversion.
A gradual normalisation of global
fi
nancial
market conditions subsequently contributed
to a partial reversal of this depreciation.
The depreciation of these currencies
compared with their average levels in April
2008 was strongest in Poland. In May 2009
the Executive Board of the IMF approved a
one-year precautionary arrangement for
Poland, under the Flexible Credit Line, with
the aim of supporting Poland in weathering
the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. In
Sweden, investorsâ perceptions concerning the
Baltic States, where Swedish banks are very
active, contributed to signi
fi
cant downward
pressure on the Swedish krona. Over the
reference period Sveriges Riksbank announced
several measures to promote
fi
nancial stability,
including the strengthening of its foreign
exchange reserves through (precautionary)
agreements with the US Federal Reserve and
the ECB. After the Hungarian forint exchange
rate experienced signi
fi
cant downward pressure,
in November 2008 the Executive Board of
the IMF approved a stand-by arrangement for
Hungary to avert a worsening of the
fi
nancial
market pressures. Similarly, an international
fi
nancial assistance package led by the EU and
the IMF was agreed for Romania in March 2009,
with the aim of putting the economy on a sound
and sustainable growth path. The downward
pressure was relatively less pronounced in
the case of the Czech koruna, which began to
appreciate again at the beginning of 2010.
THE LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE CRITERION
The international
fi
nancial crisis, the general
reassessment of risk and the deterioration
of macroeconomic conditions have had an
adverse impact on long-term bond market
developments. This led to a strong widening
of long-term interest rate spreads vis-Ă -vis
the euro area average during the period under
examination. Markets started to differentiate
37
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
3 T H E S T A T E
O F E C O N O M I C
C O N V E R G E N C E
more across countries by assessing external and
internal vulnerabilities, the deterioration of the
budgetary performance and the prospects for
sustainable convergence.
Over the 12-month reference period from
April 2009 to March 2010, the reference value
for long-term interest rates was 6.0%. This value
was calculated by adding 2 percentage points
to the unweighted arithmetic average of the
long-term interest rates of the two EU countries
entering the calculation of the reference value for
the criterion on price stability with a harmonised
long-term interest rate, namely Belgium (3.8%)
and Portugal (4.2%). The third Member State on
which the calculation of the reference value for
price stability is based is Estonia but, since the
country has no harmonised long-term interest
rate, there are no data for use in the calculation
of the reference value for these rates. During
the reference period, the euro area long-term
interest rate averaged 3.8%.
Over the reference period, only two of
the Member States examined (the Czech
Republic and Sweden) had average long-term
interest rates below the reference value
(see the overview table).
In Poland and Bulgaria, long-term interest
rates averaged 6.1% and 6.9% respectively,
while the differential vis-Ă -vis the euro area
averaged 236 basis points in Poland and
315 basis points in Bulgaria during the reference
period. Concerns about the emergence of
fi
scal
issues in Poland and external vulnerabilities
in Bulgaria contributed to keeping long-term
bond differentials relatively high. In Latvia,
Lithuania, Hungary and Romania long-term
interest rates were even further above the
reference value during the reference period.
In particular, Hungarian and Romanian
long-term interest rates were affected by the
uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of
fi
scal policy in both countries and were, on
average, just below 10% (8.4% in Hungary and
9.4% in Romania). Interest rate differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area stood at around 460-570
basis points on average. Following the build-up
of large macroeconomic imbalances in previous
years, Latvia and Lithuania were strongly
affected by the international
fi
nancial market
turmoil, as re
fl
ected in the sharp increase in
long-term interest rates. In Latvia and Lithuania,
long-term interest rates averaged 12.7% and
12.1% respectively. Differentials vis-Ă -vis the
euro area average reached historically high
levels of 895 and 835 basis points respectively.
In Estonia, owing to the absence of a developed
market for long-term government bonds in
Estonian kroons and re
fl
ecting the low level
of government debt, no harmonised long-term
interest rate is available. This complicates
the process of assessing convergence prior
to the adoption of the euro. A broad analysis
has been performed on the basis of several
indicators, which may provide some indications
as to the market assessment of the durability
of convergence. In particular, various
fi
nancial
market indicators have been considered,
such as spreads of spot and forward money
market interest rates vis-Ă -vis the euro area
and interest rates on MFI loans to households
and non-
fi
nancial corporations with long-term
initial
fi
xation or maturities. Moreover, sovereign
credit ratings and an analysis of underlying
macroeconomic variables, such as developments
in the balance of payments or
fi
scal debt, have
been used. All in all, developments in
fi
nancial
markets during the reference period suggest a
mixed assessment. A number of indicators show
that market participants had signi
fi
cant concerns
regarding the sustainability of convergence
in Estonia. These concerns were especially
pronounced during the peak of the global crisis.
From late 2009, a decline in global risk aversion,
fi
scal developments and perceptions among
market participants about Estoniaâs prospects of
adopting the euro all contributed to an easing of
market pressures.
39
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
4 COUNTRY
SUMMARIES
4.1 BULGARIA
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Bulgaria was 1.7%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Bulgaria has been rather
volatile, averaging 6.7% on an annual basis over
the period 2000-09. From 2000 to 2003 in
fl
ation
declined gradually before rising signi
fi
cantly
again. After peaking at 12.0% in 2008, in
fl
ation
declined sharply to 2.5% in 2009. The increase
in in
fl
ation after 2003 re
fl
ected adjustments in
administered prices, the harmonisation of excise
duties with EU levels, a series of supply-side
shocks (such as the hikes in global energy and
food prices) and increasing demand pressures.
The robust economic expansion between 2004
and 2008 was accompanied by a build-up of
signi
fi
cant macroeconomic imbalances and
vulnerabilities. The overheating economy was
fuelled by massive foreign direct investment
in
fl
ows and very strong credit growth. Between
2007 and 2009 extremely rapid growth in
compensation per employee, which signi
fi
cantly
exceeded gains in labour productivity, led to a
deterioration in competitiveness. The necessary
correction of these unsustainable economic
trends was supported by the contraction in
global trade and the deceleration in capital
in
fl
ows in the aftermath of the global
fi
nancial
and economic crisis. Looking at recent
developments, the annual HICP in
fl
ation rate
broadly followed a downward path during 2009,
but started to increase again in October 2009
and stood at 2.4% in March 2010. The current
in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed against
the background of a strong retrenchment in
domestic spending. In addition, the marked
decrease in in
fl
ation over the past year also
re
fl
ects the impact of lower food and energy
prices compared with 2008.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
2.2% to 2.6% for 2010 and from 2.7% to 3.2%
for 2011. Higher than expected increases in
global commodity prices are the main upside
risk to the in
fl
ation outlook, while the potential
exacerbation of the impact of increased spare
capacity on wages and domestic demand
constitutes a source of downside risk in the near
term. Looking further ahead, the catching-up
process is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation
over the coming years, given that GDP per capita
and price levels are still signi
fi
cantly lower in
Bulgaria than in the euro area. However, it is
dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size of the in
fl
ation
effect resulting from this catching-up process.
Once output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed
exchange rate regime, the underlying real
exchange rate appreciation trend is likely
to manifest itself in higher in
fl
ation. Given
the currency board arrangement and the
limitations of alternative counter-cyclical policy
instruments, it may be dif
fi
cult to prevent
macroeconomic imbalances, including high
rates of in
fl
ation, from building up again.
Bulgaria is not subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit,
but the European Commission is initiating an
excessive de
fi
cit procedure by preparing a report
under Article 126(3). In the reference year 2009
the general government budget balance showed
a de
fi
cit of 3.9% of GDP, i.e. above the 3%
de
fi
cit reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 14.8% of GDP, i.e. far
below the 60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit
ratio is forecast by the European Commission
to decline to 2.8% of GDP and the government
debt ratio is projected to rise to 17.4%.
With regard to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit
ratio did not exceed the ratio of public
investment to GDP in 2009. As regards the
sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to
the European Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability
Report, Bulgaria appears to be at low risk.
Further consolidation is required for Bulgaria
to comply with the medium-term budgetary
objective speci
fi
ed in the Stability and Growth
Pact and quanti
fi
ed in the convergence
programme as a cyclically adjusted surplus
net of one-off and temporary measures of
0.5% of GDP.
40
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
In the two-year reference period, the Bulgarian
lev did not participate in ERM II, but was
pegged to the euro within the framework of
a currency board arrangement adopted in
July 1997. The Bulgarian currency did not exhibit
any deviation from the rate of 1.95583 levs
per euro. Short-term interest rate differentials
against the three-month EURIBOR increased
to 4.8 percentage points in the
fi
rst half of 2009,
before decreasing thereafter to 3.6 percentage
points. In March 2010, both bilaterally against
the euro and in effective terms, the real exchange
rate of the Bulgarian lev stood well above its
ten-year historical averages. Bulgariaâs de
fi
cit
in the combined current and capital account of
the balance of payments widened progressively,
from 2.4% of GDP in 2002 to very high levels
of 28.9% in 2007. Following a strong fall in
domestic demand, which led to lower imports,
the current and capital account de
fi
cit decreased
sharply, from 23.2% of GDP in 2008 to 8.0%
in 2009. As a result of the current account
developments, the countryâs net international
investment position deteriorated substantially,
from -34.4% of GDP in 2000 to -109.6% in 2009.
Long-term interest rates were on average 6.9%
over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 and were thus above the reference
value for the long-term interest rate convergence
criterion. Long-term interest rates and their
differential with bond yields in the euro area
increased signi
fi
cantly during the reference
period and reached a peak in the
fi
rst half
of 2009. Against the background of the easing of
the
fi
nancial market tension, long-term interest
rates subsequently declined considerably, to
stand at 5.8% in March 2010.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Bulgaria requires,
inter alia, the conduct of economic policies
geared towards ensuring overall macroeconomic
stability, including sustainable price stability.
Given the limited room for manoeuvre for
monetary policy under the currency board
arrangement, it is imperative that other policy
areas provide the economy with the wherewithal
to cope with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid
the reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
More speci
fi
cally, the Bulgarian authorities
should continue with the
fi
scal consolidation
process and strictly avoid any slippage in public
expenditure. In addition, Bulgaria needs to deal
with a wide range of economic policy challenges
that are described in more detail in Chapter 5.
Bulgarian law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition, and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Bulgaria
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
4.2 CZECH
REPUBLIC
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the Czech Republic recorded a
12-month average rate of HICP in
fl
ation of
0.3%, i.e. well below the reference value of
1.0% for the criterion on price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in the Czech Republic followed a
broad downward trend until 2003, after which it
fl
uctuated mostly in a range of 1% to 3% until
the end of 2007, when it started to rise again.
It reached a peak in 2008 and then decreased
markedly in 2009, standing at 0.6% on average
for the whole year. In
fl
ation developments
should be viewed against the background of
robust real GDP growth over most of the past
decade, until the economy started to slow
markedly in 2008 in the aftermath of the global
economic and
fi
nancial crisis. Unit labour cost
growth picked up, in particular after 2005, owing
to the tightening labour market. In 2009 labour
market conditions weakened markedly, with
growth in compensation per employee turning
negative in the second quarter of 2009. Declines
in productivity, however, limited the moderation
in unit labour costs. The fall in import prices
throughout most of the period under review
largely re
fl
ected the appreciation of the effective
exchange rate. Looking at recent developments,
HICP in
fl
ation declined markedly and turned
41
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
negative in the second half of 2009. The decline
in in
fl
ation was driven by the fading effects of
increases in administered prices, as well as by
declines in global energy prices. Towards the
end of 2009 in
fl
ation started to rise again, owing
to base effects and on the back of an increase
in global commodity prices, reaching 0.4% in
March 2010.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from 1.0%
to 1.6% for 2010 and from 1.3% to 2.2% for
2011. Upside risks to the in
fl
ation forecasts are
associated with larger than expected increases
in commodity prices, in particular in global
oil prices, while the performance of exports,
without the support of the car-scrapping
schemes, constitutes a source of downside risk.
Looking further ahead, the catching-up process
is also likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation
and/or on the nominal exchange rate, over the
coming years, given that GDP per capita and
price levels are still lower in the Czech Republic
than in the euro area. However, it is dif
fi
cult to
assess the exact size of the effect resulting from
this catching-up process.
The Czech Republic is at present subject to an
EU Council decision on the existence of an
excessive de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009
the general government budget balance showed
a de
fi
cit of 5.9% of GDP, i.e. well above the
3% reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 35.4%, i.e. well below
the 60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit
ratio is forecast by the European Commission to
decrease to 5.7% and the government debt ratio
is projected to increase to 39.8%. With regard
to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded
the ratio of public investment to GDP in 2009.
As regards the sustainability of its public
fi
nances,
according to the European Commissionâs 2009
Sustainability Report, the Czech Republic
appears to be at high risk. Comprehensive
fi
scal
consolidation is required for the Czech Republic
to comply with the medium-term budgetary
objective speci
fi
ed in the Stability and Growth
Pact, which is quanti
fi
ed in the convergence
programme update as a cyclically adjusted
de
fi
cit net of one-off and temporary measures of
1% of GDP.
In the two-year reference period, the Czech
koruna did not participate in ERM II, but traded
under a
fl
exible exchange rate regime. In this
period, the koruna depreciated strongly against
the euro between mid-2008 and February 2009,
then partially recovered, recording a period of
more stability from mid-2009. The exchange
rate of the Czech koruna against the euro
mostly showed a high degree of volatility, while
short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR turned positive at the
beginning of 2009, remained at a relatively
high level of slightly above 1 percentage point
between June and December 2009, before
decreasing to around 0.8 percentage point in
March 2010. In March 2010, both bilaterally
against the euro and in effective terms, the
real exchange rate of the Czech koruna stood
somewhat above its ten-year historical averages.
The Czech Republic reported a relatively large
average de
fi
cit of 4.2% of GDP in the combined
current and capital account of its balance of
payments between 2000 and 2007. The current
and capital account de
fi
cit then turned into a
slight surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2008 and 0.1%
of GDP in 2009 owing to a decreasing de
fi
cit in
the income balance and a strong fall in domestic
demand, which led to lower imports. The
countryâs net international investment position
declined signi
fi
cantly from -8.8% of GDP in
2000 to -45.2% in 2009.
Long-term interest rates were 4.7% on average
in the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 and thus below the reference value
for the interest rate convergence criterion.
The decreases in government bond yields in
the Czech Republic since August 2004 have
brought the level of long-term interest rates
close to the levels prevailing in the euro area.
However, during the
fi
nancial market turmoil in
the third quarter of 2007, the long-term interest
rate differential increased somewhat and peaked
a year later. During the reference period the
country was newly affected by the general
increase in global uncertainty and risk premia.
42
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Long-term interest rates followed an upward
trend with persisting increased volatility,
peaking in June 2009 at 5.5%, and then declined
again. Towards the end of the reference period,
long-term interest rates increased slightly,
re
fl
ecting renewed concerns about future
fi
scal
developments.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in the Czech Republic
requires, inter alia, maintaining a price stability-
oriented monetary policy and implementing a
comprehensive and credible
fi
scal consolidation
path. In addition, the Czech Republic needs
to deal with a wide range of economic policy
challenges, which are described in more detail
in Chapter 5.
Czech law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
con
fi
dentiality, the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition
and legal integration into the Eurosystem.
The Czech Republic is a Member State with a
derogation and must therefore comply with all
adaptation requirements under Article 131 of
the Treaty.
4.3 ESTONIA
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Estonia was -0.7%, i.e. well below
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Estonia has been very
volatile. It followed a broadly downward trend
until 2003 before rising signi
fi
cantly, peaking at
an annual average of 10.6% in 2008. Thereafter,
HICP in
fl
ation fell strongly to 0.2% in 2009.
In
fl
ation developments over the past ten years
should be viewed against the background of
very robust real GDP growth in most years,
with clear signs of increasing overheating
up to 2008. Rapid wage growth, consistently
and often signi
fi
cantly above gains in labour
productivity, led to a signi
fi
cant deterioration in
Estoniaâs competitive position. Owing to these
unsustainable macroeconomic developments
and the collapse of world trade, the Estonian
economy experienced a pronounced turnaround
in economic activity and a severe contraction
in 2009. Looking at recent developments, the
annual rate of HICP in
fl
ation turned negative
in June 2009 and reached a low of -2.1%
in the period October-November 2009, before
increasing to stand at 1.4% in March 2010. The
current in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed
against the background of a strong retrenchment
in domestic spending. In addition, the marked
decrease in in
fl
ation in 2009 re
fl
ected the
impact of lower global food and energy prices
compared with 2008.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
most major international institutions range
from 0.7% to 1.3% for 2010 and from 1.1%
to 2.0% for 2011. Upside risks to the in
fl
ation
outlook are associated mainly with higher than
expected increases in energy and food prices.
Moreover, additional
fi
scal
consolidation
measures could lead to potential further
increases in indirect taxes and excise duties.
As regards downside risks in the near term, in
view of Estoniaâs weak economic environment
and high level of private sector indebtedness,
it cannot be ruled out that the ongoing adjustment
process will translate into a more protracted period
of very low in
fl
ation. Looking further ahead,
maintaining low in
fl
ation rates in Estonia will
be very challenging, given the limited room for
manoeuvre for monetary policy. The catching-up
process is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation
over the coming years, given that GDP per capita
and price levels are still lower in Estonia than in
the euro area. However, it is dif
fi
cult to assess the
exact size of the in
fl
ation effect resulting from
this catching-up process. Once output growth
resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange rate regime, the
underlying real exchange rate appreciation trend
is likely to manifest itself in higher in
fl
ation.
Given the currency board arrangement and
the limitations of alternative counter-cyclical
policy instruments, it may be dif
fi
cult to prevent
macroeconomic imbalances, including high rates
of in
fl
ation, from building up again.
43
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
To sum up, although the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation in Estonia is currently
well below the reference value â mainly as
a result of temporary factors, including the
severe economic adjustment process â there are
concerns regarding the sustainability of in
fl
ation
convergence in Estonia.
Estonia is not subject to an EU Council decision
on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit. In the
reference year 2009 the general government
budget balance showed a de
fi
cit of 1.7% of
GDP, i.e. well below the reference value.
The general government gross debt-to-GDP
ratio was 7.2% of GDP, i.e. far below the
60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio
is forecast by the European Commission to
increase to 2.4% of GDP and the government
debt ratio is projected to rise to 9.6%.
With regard to other
fi
scal factors, the
de
fi
cit ratio did not exceed the ratio of
public investment to GDP in 2008 or 2009.
As regards the sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Estonia appears to be at low risk. Further
fi
scal
consolidation is required for Estonia to comply
with the medium-term budgetary objective
speci
fi
ed in the Stability and Growth Pact, which
is quanti
fi
ed in the convergence programme as a
slight cyclically adjusted surplus net of one-off
and temporary measures.
The Estonian kroon has been participating in
ERM II with effect from 28 June 2004. In the
two-year reference period, the kroon remained
stable at its central rate of 15.6466 kroons per
euro. Short-term interest rate differentials
against the three-month EURIBOR stood at
a high level of around 4.8 percentage points
in 2009, before decreasing to lower levels of
1.6 percentage points in the three-month period
ending in March 2010. In March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Estonian kroon, both
in effective terms and bilaterally against the
euro, stood somewhat above the corresponding
ten-year average levels. Estonia reported a
very large average de
fi
cit of 10% of GDP in
the combined current and capital account of its
balance of payments between 2000 and 2008.
Following a strong fall in domestic demand,
which led to lower imports, the current and capital
account balance of -8.4% of GDP in 2008 turned
sharply into a surplus of 7.4% of GDP in 2009.
The countryâs net international investment
position deteriorated substantially, from -48.2%
of GDP in 2000 to -81.8% in 2009.
Owing to the absence of a developed bond market
in Estonian kroons and re
fl
ecting the low level
of government debt, no harmonised long-term
interest rate is available. This complicates
the process of assessing the sustainability of
convergence prior to the adoption of the euro.
Instead, a broad-based analysis of
fi
nancial
markets has been conducted, taking into account
the level of spreads directly derived from
monetary and
fi
nancial statistics, sovereign
credit ratings and other relevant indicators.
As each of these individual variables has its
limitations as an indicator of the durability of
convergence achieved, none should be seen as
a direct substitute for long-term interest rates.
All in all, developments in
fi
nancial markets
during the reference period suggest a mixed
assessment, and a number of indicators show
that market participants had signi
fi
cant concerns
regarding the sustainability of convergence
in Estonia. These concerns were especially
pronounced during the peak of the global crisis.
From late 2009 a decline in global risk aversion,
fi
scal developments and perceptions among
market participants about Estoniaâs prospects of
adopting the euro all contributed to an easing in
market pressures.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Estonia requires the
conduct of economic policies geared towards
ensuring overall macroeconomic stability,
including sustainable price stability. Given
the limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy under the currency board arrangement,
it is imperative that other policy areas provide
the economy with the wherewithal to cope
with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid the
reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
In particular, the Estonian authorities should
44
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
aim to achieve a
fi
scal surplus in line with their
medium-term strategy and be ready to take
counter-cyclical measures if needed to counter
the risk of overheating. Furthermore, it is
important that
fi
scal consolidation measures on
the expenditure side of the budget are continued
as planned in 2010 and that further measures are
speci
fi
ed for 2011 and beyond with a view to
attaining the medium-term budgetary objective.
In addition, Estonia needs to deal with a wide
range of economic policy challenges that are
described in more detail in Chapter 5.
The Law on Eesti Pank, the Law on currency
and the Law on security for Estonian kroons do
not fully comply with all the requirements of
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and for legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Estonia is a
Member State with a derogation and must
therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
The ECB has been consulted on the draft laws
amending the Law on Eesti Pank, and repealing
the Law on currency and the Law on security
for Estonian kroons. Assuming that the draft law
amending the Law on Eesti Pank is adopted in
time in the form submitted for consultation to
the ECB on 18 February 2010, and that the
repeal of the Law on currency and the Law on
security for Estonian kroons enters into force in
time, the Law on Eesti Pank will be compatible
with the Treaty and the Statute and the ECB will
consider that the incompatibilities with the
requirements for Eesti Pankâs legal integration
into the Eurosystem have been removed.
1
4.4 LATVIA
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Latvia was 0.1%, i.e. well below
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Latvia remained broadly
stable in the early 2000s, before picking up
signi
fi
cantly in the second half of the decade.
After peaking at an annual average rate of
15.3% in 2008, HICP in
fl
ation fell sharply to
3.3% in 2009. The strong pick-up in in
fl
ation
between 2005 and 2008 should be seen against
the backdrop of an overheating economy,
with excessive demand growth, very strong
wage increases and hikes in global energy and
food prices. Rapid wage growth in this period,
which consistently exceeded gains in labour
productivity, led to an erosion of competitiveness.
However, as these macroeconomic developments
proved unsustainable, the Latvian economy
experienced a deep crisis. In particular in late
2008 and early 2009 macroeconomic conditions
weakened abruptly, re
fl
ecting the unwinding of
the credit and housing bubble, a process which
was exacerbated by the impact of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. Looking at recent
developments, the annual HICP in
fl
ation rate
turned negative in the
fi
nal quarter of 2009,
to stand at -4.0% in March 2010. The current
in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed against the
background of an ongoing strong retrenchment
in domestic spending. In addition, the marked
decrease in in
fl
ation over the past year also
re
fl
ected the lower food and energy prices
compared with 2008.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
-3.7% to -2.8% for 2010 and from -2.5% to
-0.7% for 2011. Upside risks to the in
fl
ation
outlook stem from possible further increases
in indirect taxes and global commodity prices.
On the downside, the decline in domestic
price pressures could be larger or more
protracted than currently envisaged if economic
activity recovers more slowly or later than
presently expected. Looking further ahead,
maintaining low in
fl
ation rates in Latvia will
be very challenging, given the limited room for
manoeuvre for monetary policy. The catching-up
As mentioned in Chapter 2.2.1, the compatibility of national
1
legislation is considered as at 12 March 2010, the cut-off date for
the legal convergence assessment. It is noted, however, that on
22 April 2010, the Estonian Parliament adopted the Law on the
introduction of the euro which removes the incompatibilities with
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and satis
fi
es the requirements
for Eesti Pankâs legal integration into the Eurosystem.
45
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
process is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation
over the coming years, given that GDP per
capita and price levels are still lower in Latvia
than in the euro area. However, it is dif
fi
cult
to assess the exact size of the in
fl
ation effect
resulting from this catching-up process. Once
output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange
rate regime, the underlying real exchange rate
appreciation trend is likely to manifest itself
in higher in
fl
ation. Given the tightly pegged
exchange rate and the limitations of alternative
counter-cyclical policy instruments, it may be
dif
fi
cult to prevent macroeconomic imbalances,
including high rates of in
fl
ation, from building
up again.
To sum up, although the 12-month average rate
of HICP in
fl
ation in Latvia is currently well
below the reference value â mainly as a result of
temporary factors, including the severe economic
adjustment process â there are considerable
concerns regarding the sustainability of in
fl
ation
convergence in Latvia.
Latvia is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit of
9.0% of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the 3%
de
fi
cit reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 36.1%, i.e. well below the
60% reference value. In 2010 the budget de
fi
cit
is forecast by the European Commission to
decline to 8.6% of GDP and the government debt
ratio is projected to rise to 48.5%. With regard to
other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the
ratio of public investment expenditure to GDP
in 2009 and is expected to do so also in 2010.
As regards the sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Latvia appears to be at high risk. Further
comprehensive
fi
scal consolidation is required
for Latvia to comply with the medium-term
budgetary objective speci
fi
ed in the Stability
and Growth Pact, which is quanti
fi
ed in the
convergence programme as a cyclically adjusted
de
fi
cit net of one-off and temporary measures of
1% of GDP.
The Latvian lats has been participating in
ERM II with effect from 2 May 2005. Over the
last two years, there have been several occasions
of severe market tensions when the Latvian
lats has traded close to the weaker side of the
unilaterally set
fl
uctuation band. The international
fi
nancial assistance programme led by the EU
and the IMF helped to ease these tensions.
The exchange rate volatility of the Latvian lats
vis-Ă -vis the euro increased to relatively high
levels in August 2009, before decreasing to
lower levels thereafter. Short-term interest rate
differentials against the three-month EURIBOR
re
fl
ected the various episodes of severe tensions
and peaked at around 16.1 percentage points
in mid-2009 before decreasing thereafter.
In March 2010 the Latvian latsâ real effective
exchange rate stood close to, and its real bilateral
exchange rate against the euro somewhat above,
the corresponding ten-year average levels.
Latviaâs combined current and capital account
of the balance of payments showed a very large
average de
fi
cit of 11.3% of GDP between 2000
and 2008. Following a strong fall in domestic
demand, which led to lower imports, the
current and capital account balance of -11.5%
of GDP in 2008 turned sharply into a surplus
of 11.8% of GDP in 2009. The countryâs net
international investment position deteriorated
substantially, from -30.0% of GDP in 2000 to
-81.3% in 2009.
Long-term interest rates were 12.7% on average
over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 and thus considerably above the
reference value for the interest rate convergence
criterion. During the reference period the rapid
deterioration in the Latvian economy and
government
fi
nances led long-term interest rates
to increase to 13.8% in January 2010. In the last
quarter of 2009 market sentiment already started
to improve, as the Latvian government had
stepped up its efforts to comply with the policy
conditionality of the international
fi
nancial
assistance programme, supported also by a
general improvement in the global appetite for
risk vis-Ă -vis emerging economies. However,
long-term interest rates remained at elevated
levels at the end of the reference period.
46
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Latvia requires
the conduct of economic policies geared
towards ensuring overall macroeconomic
stability, including sustainable price stability.
Given the limited room for manoeuvre for
monetary policy under the current exchange
rate peg, it is imperative that other policy areas
provide the economy with the wherewithal to
cope with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid
the reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
In particular, it is crucial for Latvia to rebuild
a sound
fi
scal position that will support the
credibility of the exchange rate peg and bring
the
fi
scal position back onto a sustainable path.
In addition, Latvia needs to deal with a wide
range of economic policy challenges that are
described in more detail in Chapter 5.
Latvian law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the prohibition on monetary
fi
nancing and
legal integration into the Eurosystem. Latvia
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
4.5 LITHUANIA
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Lithuania was 2.0%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, HICP
in
fl
ation was subdued in the early 2000s.
In 2003 it turned negative, before rising
gradually in the mid-2000s and accelerating
signi
fi
cantly in 2007 and 2008. After peaking
at an annual average rate of 11.1% in 2008,
HICP in
fl
ation fell sharply to 4.2% in 2009.
The pick-up in in
fl
ation in the second half of
the decade was due to a combination of factors,
including higher energy and food prices, as well
as an increasingly tight labour market and very
strong demand growth, re
fl
ecting an overheating
economy. Rapid wage growth, which consistently
exceeded gains in labour productivity, led to a
deterioration in competitiveness. However, as
these macroeconomic developments proved
unsustainable, the Lithuanian economy
experienced a severe contraction. The domestic
demand and asset price boom came to an
abrupt end in 2008, reinforced by weakening
external demand and the impact of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. Looking at recent
developments, the annual rate of HICP in
fl
ation
turned negative in January 2010 to stand at
-0.4% in March. The current in
fl
ation picture
needs to be viewed against the background of
an ongoing strong retrenchment in domestic
spending. In addition, the marked decrease in
in
fl
ation over the past year also re
fl
ected lower
food and energy prices compared with 2008.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
-1.2% to 0.4% for 2010 and from -1.0% to 1.4%
for 2011. Upside risks to the in
fl
ation outlook
stem from potential further increases in indirect
taxes and global commodity prices. On the
downside, the decline in prices could be larger
or more protracted than currently envisaged if
economic activity recovers more slowly or later
than presently expected. Looking further ahead,
maintaining low in
fl
ation rates in Lithuania will
be very challenging, given the limited room for
manoeuvre for monetary policy. The catching-up
process is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation
over the coming years, given that GDP per
capita and price levels are still lower in Lithuania
than in the euro area. However, it is dif
fi
cult
to assess the exact size of the in
fl
ation effect
resulting from this catching-up process. Once
output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange
rate regime, the underlying real exchange rate
appreciation trend is likely to manifest itself
in higher in
fl
ation. Given the currency board
arrangement and the limitations of alternative
counter-cyclical policy instruments, it may be
dif
fi
cult to prevent macroeconomic imbalances,
including high rates of in
fl
ation, from building
up again.
Lithuania is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit.
47
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit
of 8.9% of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the
3% reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 29.3%, i.e. well below
the 60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit
ratio is forecast by the European Commission to
decline to 8.4%, while the government debt ratio
is projected to increase to 38.6%. With regard to
other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the
ratio of public investment to GDP in 2009 and
is expected to do so also in 2010. As regards the
sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to
the European Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability
Report, Lithuania appears to be at high risk.
Further comprehensive
fi
scal consolidation
is required for Lithuania to comply with the
medium-term budgetary objective speci
fi
ed
in the Stability and Growth Pact, which is
quanti
fi
ed in the convergence programme as a
structural surplus of 0.5% of GDP.
The Lithuanian litas has been participating
in ERM II with effect from 28 June 2004.
In the two-year reference period, the litas
was stable at its central rate of 3.45280 litas
per euro. Short-term interest rate differentials
against the three-month EURIBOR increased
substantially to high levels at the end of 2008,
peaking at 7.2 percentage points in mid-2009
before declining to 1.7 percentage points
in March 2010. In March 2010, both bilaterally
against the euro and in effective terms, the
real exchange rate of the Lithuanian litas
stood somewhat above its ten-year averages.
Lithuania reported a large average de
fi
cit of
7.4% of GDP in the combined current and
capital account of its balance of payments
between 2000 and 2008. Following a strong fall
in domestic demand, which led to lower imports,
the current and capital account balance of -10.1%
of GDP in 2008 turned sharply into a surplus of
7.2% of GDP in 2009. The countryâs net
international investment position deteriorated
signi
fi
cantly, from -35.1% of GDP in 2000 to
-58.7% in 2009.
Long-term interest rates were 12.1% on average
over the reference period from April 2009
to March 2010 and thus stood considerably
above the 6.0% reference value for the interest
rate convergence criterion. The international
fi
nancial crisis, market tensions, downgrading of
credit ratings and declining liquidity negatively
affected markets, as well as the long-term interest
rate in Lithuania, which increased considerably
after the start of the
fi
nancial market turmoil in
mid-2007. However, the assessment of long-term
interest rates requires caution as the liquidity of
the secondary market over the reference period
was low. Since December 2009 there has been
some trading in the secondary markets, and the
yields have declined, standing at 5.2% at the
end of the reference period.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Lithuania requires
the conduct of economic policies geared
towards ensuring overall macroeconomic
stability, including sustainable price stability.
Given the limited room for manoeuvre for
monetary policy under the currency board
arrangement, it is imperative that other policy
areas provide the economy with the wherewithal
to cope with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to
avoid the reoccurrence of macroeconomic
imbalances. In particular, it is crucial for
Lithuania to continue with its current
fi
scal
consolidation path, which will also support the
credibility of the exchange rate peg. In addition,
Lithuania needs to deal with a wide range of
economic policy challenges that are described
in more detail in Chapter 5.
Lithuanian law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence.
Lithuania is a Member State with a derogation
and must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
4.6 HUNGARY
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Hungary was 4.8%, i.e. considerably
above the reference value of 1.0% for the
criterion on price stability.
48
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Hungary followed a broad
downward trend until 2005, which has since
reversed in part, re
fl
ecting successive commodity
price shocks and changes in indirect taxes and
administered prices. In 2009 on average annual
HICP in
fl
ation remained at 4%. Since the end
of 2006 in
fl
ation developments have taken place
against the background of a strong economic
slowdown, in the context of a signi
fi
cant
fi
scal
adjustment. Real GDP growth decelerated from
around 4.0% in 2006 to 0.6% in 2008. In 2009,
exacerbated by the global
fi
nancial crisis, Hungary
experienced a severe downturn. Unit labour cost
growth was high at the beginning of the 2000s
and decreased only slowly during the early
stages of Hungaryâs
fi
scal adjustment. However,
the labour market adjustment accelerated
in 2009, leading to a strong moderation in
overall unit labour cost growth. Looking at
recent developments, the annual rate of HICP
in
fl
ation was close to the 3% in
fl
ation target in
early 2009, increased signi
fi
cantly in mid-2009
and remained at around 5-6% up to March 2010.
The increase in in
fl
ation, in spite of the deep
decline in economic activity, mainly re
fl
ected
the short-term impact of changes in indirect
taxes and excise duties. In addition, since the end
of 2009 the increase in in
fl
ation also re
fl
ected
base effects and the increase in energy prices.
HICP in
fl
ation excluding food and energy prices
has been rather stable since the sizeable VAT
increase in July 2009.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
4.0% to 4.6% for 2010 and from 2.5% to 3.0%
for 2011. As regards risks, on the upside,
commodity prices may rise more strongly than
expected and the recent temporary price shocks
(e.g. VAT and administered price increases)
may impact on in
fl
ationary expectations once
the economic recovery gains momentum.
On the downside, domestic demand may recover
at a slower pace than expected. Looking further
ahead, the catching-up process is also likely
to have a bearing on in
fl
ation and/or on the
nominal exchange rate over the coming years,
given that GDP per capita and price levels are
still lower in Hungary than in the euro area.
However, it is dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size
of the effect resulting from this catching-up
process.
Hungary is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit
of 4.0% of GDP, i.e. well above the 3%
reference value. The general government gross
debt-to-GDP ratio was 78.3%, i.e. above the
60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is
forecast by the European Commission to increase
slightly to 4.1% and the government debt ratio
is projected to increase to 78.9%. With regard to
other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the
ratio of public investment to GDP in 2009 and is
projected to do so also in 2010. As regards the
sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to
the European Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability
Report, Hungary appears to be at medium
risk. Further
fi
scal consolidation is required
for Hungary to comply with the medium-term
budgetary objective speci
fi
ed in the Stability
and Growth Pact, which is quanti
fi
ed in the
convergence programme as a cyclically adjusted
de
fi
cit net of one-off and temporary measures of
1.5% of GDP.
In the two-year reference period, the Hungarian
forint did not participate in ERM II. The forint
depreciated strongly between mid-2008 and
March 2009, then partially recovered and
recorded a period of relative stability from
mid-2009. The international
fi
nancial assistance
programme for Hungary, led by the EU and
the IMF, contributed in late October and
November 2008 to reducing downward
pressures on the Hungarian currency. The
exchange rate of the forint against the euro
showed a high degree of volatility over the
period under review and short-term interest rate
differentials against the three-month EURIBOR
remained at high levels. In March 2010 the real
exchange rate of the Hungarian forint, both in
effective terms and bilaterally against the euro,
stood somewhat above the corresponding ten-
year average levels. Hungary reported a large
49
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
average de
fi
cit of 6.8% of GDP in the combined
current and capital account of its balance of
payments between 2000 and 2008. Following
a strong fall in domestic demand, which led to
lower imports, the current and capital account
balance of -5.9% of GDP in 2008 turned sharply
into a surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2009. The
countryâs net international investment position
deteriorated substantially, from -63.8% of GDP
in 2000 to -112.9% of GDP in 2009.
Long-term interest rates were 8.4% on
average over the reference period from
April 2009 to March 2010 and thus well above
the 6.0% reference value for the interest rate
convergence criterion. At the beginning of
the reference period long-term interest rates
remained at elevated levels owing to reduced
appetite for risk among investors, increased
risk premia, dampened market liquidity and
rising domestic in
fl
ation and
fi
scal problems.
As tensions in international
fi
nancial markets
gradually eased, the long-term interest rates
declined, standing at 7.2% at the end of the
reference period.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Hungary requires,
inter alia, stability-oriented monetary policy and
the continued strict implementation of the
fi
scal
consolidation plans. In addition, Hungary needs
to deal with a wide range of economic policy
challenges that are described in more detail in
Chapter 5.
Hungarian law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the prohibition on monetary
fi
nancing, single
spelling of the euro, and legal integration
into the Eurosystem. Hungary is a Member
State with a derogation and must therefore
comply with all adaptation requirements under
Article 131 of the Treaty.
4.7 POLAND
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Poland was 3.9%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation followed a sharp downward trend
from 2000 to 2003. After a period of low in
fl
ation,
price pressures started to pick up again at the
end of 2006. In 2008 and 2009 in
fl
ation stood
at elevated levels of around 4%. Over the last
decade in
fl
ation developments appear to have
largely mirrored the output performance of the
Polish economy with some lag. Output expanded
at an annual rate of over 6% in 2006 and 2007,
with overheating pressures emerging gradually.
This resulted in sizeable labour shortages
and a notable rise in unit labour cost growth.
Looking at recent developments, the high
in
fl
ation rate in 2009, which has started to
decline, standing at 2.9% in March 2010, was
mainly attributable to surging food prices, higher
energy prices and increases in administered
prices and indirect taxes.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
2.2% to 2.4% for 2010 and from 1.9% to 2.6%
for 2011 (see Table 3b). The upside risks are
associated mainly with a stronger than expected
economic recovery in Poland and higher than
expected commodity prices. The downside risks
relate mainly to the size of the pass-through
of the recent appreciation of the zloty, which
may dampen import prices. Looking further
ahead, the catching-up process is likely to have
a bearing on in
fl
ation and/or on the nominal
exchange rate over the coming years, given that
GDP per capita and price levels are still lower
in Poland than in the euro area. However, it is
dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size of the effect
resulting from this catching-up process.
Poland is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit
of 7.1% of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the
3% reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 51.0%, i.e. below the
50
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio
is forecast by the European Commission to
increase to 7.3% and the government debt ratio
is projected to increase to 53.9%. With regard to
other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the
ratio of public investment to GDP in 2009 and
is expected to do so also in 2010. As regards the
sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to
the European Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability
Report, Poland appears to be at medium risk.
Comprehensive
fi
scal consolidation is required
for Poland to comply with the medium-term
budgetary objective speci
fi
ed in the Stability
and Growth Pact, which is quanti
fi
ed in the
convergence programme as a cyclically adjusted
de
fi
cit net of one-off and temporary measures of
1% of GDP.
In the two-year reference period, the Polish
zloty did not participate in ERM II, but traded
under a
fl
exible exchange rate regime. The zloty
was subject to sharp depreciation pressures
between mid-2008 and February 2009, before
recovering thereafter against the backdrop
of decreasing risk aversion in the
fi
nancial
markets. In May 2009 the Executive Board of
the IMF approved a one-year precautionary
arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line,
which was introduced in March 2009 for countries
with pre-speci
fi
ed quali
fi
cation criteria and might
have contributed to reducing the risk of exchange
rate pressures. The exchange rate of the Polish
zloty against the euro has shown a high degree
of volatility since late 2008, while short-term
interest rate differentials against the three-month
EURIBOR increased to 3.5 percentage points
at the beginning of 2010. In March 2010
the real exchange rate of the Polish zloty, in
both effective terms and bilaterally against
the euro, stood close to the corresponding
ten-year historical averages. Poland reported a
relatively large average de
fi
cit of 3.2% of GDP
in the combined current and capital account
of its balance of payments between 2000 and
2008. Following a decline in domestic demand,
which led to lower imports, the current and
capital account balance of -3.9% of GDP in
2008 reached a broadly balanced position
of 0.1% of GDP in 2009. The countryâs net
international investment position deteriorated
signi
fi
cantly, from -30.7% of GDP in 2000 to
-59.5% in 2009.
Long-term interest rates were 6.1% on average
over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 and thus just above the reference
value for the interest rate convergence criterion.
In recent years long-term interest rates in Poland
have, overall, increased in an environment of
high levels of risk aversion among investors and
uncertainties regarding the economic outlook.
More recently, however, long-term interest
rates have
fl
uctuated in a narrow range around
relatively high values, against the background
of positive growth dynamics and signi
fi
cant
foreign capital in
fl
ows to the government bond
market. Long-term interest rates declined again
in March 2010.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Poland requires,
inter alia, maintaining a price stability-oriented
monetary policy in the medium term and
implementing a comprehensive and credible
fi
scal consolidation path. In addition, Poland
needs to deal with a wide range of economic
policy challenges that are described in more
detail in Chapter 5.
Polish law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Poland
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
4.8 ROMANIA
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Romania was 5.0%, i.e. considerably
above the reference value of 1.0% for the
criterion on price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Romania has followed a
51
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
clear downward trend, but has nevertheless
remained high at around 5.6% on average
in 2009. In
fl
ation dynamics over the past
ten years should be viewed against the
background of robust GDP growth until
mid-2008, followed by a sharp contraction
in economic activity. Wage growth outpaced
productivity growth, which in turn boosted unit
labour cost growth and overheating pressures,
leading to an erosion of competitiveness.
In the course of 2008, however, the trend in
HICP in
fl
ation reversed, mainly owing to the
decline in energy and food prices, followed by a
strong contraction in economic activity from the
end of 2008. Looking at recent developments,
HICP in
fl
ation picked up at the end of 2009,
reaching 5.2% in January 2010 before falling to
4.2% in March 2010. This temporary rise was
mainly attributable to increases in excise duties
on tobacco. Notwithstanding the signi
fi
cant
decline in economic activity, in
fl
ation has been
particularly persistent, re
fl
ecting major rigidities
in the product and labour markets and strong but
slowing unit labour cost growth.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from 4.0%
to 4.4% for 2010 and 3.0% to 3.5% for 2011.
The main upside risks to this outlook relate to
the dynamics of commodity and administered
prices. On the downside, the decline in domestic
price pressures could be larger or more protracted
than currently envisaged if economic activity
recovers more slowly than presently expected.
Looking further ahead, the catching-up process
is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation and/or
on the nominal exchange rate over the coming
years, given that GDP per capita and price levels
are still signi
fi
cantly lower in Romania than in
the euro area. However, it is dif
fi
cult to assess
the exact size of the effect resulting from this
catching-up process.
Romania is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget showed a de
fi
cit of 8.3%
of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the 3%
reference value. The general government gross
debt-to-GDP ratio was 23.7%, i.e. far below
the 60% reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit
ratio is forecast by the European Commission
to decline to 8.0% and the government debt
ratio is projected to increase to 30.5%. With
regard to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio
exceeded the ratio of public investment to GDP
in 2009 and is expected to do so also in 2010.
As regards the sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Romania appears to be at high risk. Further
fi
scal
consolidation is required for Romania to comply
with the medium-term budgetary objective
speci
fi
ed in the Stability and Growth Pact, which
is quanti
fi
ed in the convergence programme as
a cyclically adjusted de
fi
cit net of one-off and
temporary measures of 0.7% of GDP.
Over the two-year reference period, the
Romanian leu did not participate in ERM II, but
traded under a
fl
exible exchange rate regime.
The leu depreciated strongly against the euro
between mid-2008 and early 2009 before
recovering slightly thereafter.The international
fi
nancial assistance programme led by the EU
and the IMF helped in late March 2009 to ease the
downward pressure on the Romanian currency.
The exchange rate of the Romanian leu against
the euro showed a high degree of volatility until
early 2009, before decreasing thereafter, while
short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR have remained at a high
level of around 9.1 percentage points over the last
two years. In March 2010 the real exchange
rate of the Romanian leu was somewhat above
its ten-year historical averages, both bilaterally
against the euro and in effective terms.
Romania reported a progressive increase in
the de
fi
cit in the combined current and capital
account of its balance of payments, from 3.1%
of GDP in 2002 to very high levels of 12.8%
in 2007. Following a strong fall in domestic
demand, which led to lower imports, the
current and capital account de
fi
cit of 11.1% of
GDP in 2008 decreased sharply to 4.0% in 2009.
The countryâs net international investment
position deteriorated signi
fi
cantly, from -26.9%
of GDP in 2000 to -61.9% in 2009.
52
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Long-term interest rates were 9.4% on average
over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 and thus well above the reference
value for the interest rate convergence
criterion. In recent years, long-term interest
rates in Romania have increased sharply in an
environment of high levels of risk aversion
among investors and uncertainties regarding the
economic outlook. More recently they started
on a downward trend, but remain at relatively
elevated levels, with the long-term interest rate
on government bonds in Romania reaching
7.1% in March 2010.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Romania requires,
inter alia, stability-oriented monetary policy
and the strict implementation of the
fi
scal
consolidation plans. In addition, Romania needs
to deal with a wide range of economic policy
challenges that are described in more detail in
Chapter 5.
Romanian law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Romania
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
4.9 SWEDEN
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Sweden was 2.1%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability.
Looking back over a longer period, in
fl
ation
developments in Sweden have generally been
stable, re
fl
ecting the countryâs advanced
economic development and the credibility of
monetary policy underpinned by moderate
wage formation. In 2009 on average annual
HICP in
fl
ation stood at 1.9%. Annual HICP
in
fl
ation has occasionally risen above 2%,
mirroring developments in global commodity
markets, episodes of depreciation of the
Swedish krona against the major global
currencies and escalated wage growth in times
of declining productivity. Nevertheless, these
periods of higher in
fl
ation have been sporadic.
Looking at recent developments, the annual
rate of HICP in
fl
ation was around 2.0% in the
fi
rst half of 2009. It then declined marginally
before increasing again as a result of higher
energy prices, reaching 2.5% in March 2010.
The reaction of in
fl
ation to the sharp contraction
in economic activity in the aftermath of the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis was
dampened by the signi
fi
cant depreciation of the
krona and the lagged impact of past increases in
unit labour costs.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from 1.3%
to 2.4% in 2010 and from 1.6% to 3.2% in 2011.
The lagged impact of the recent appreciation of
the krona constitutes a source of downside risk,
while a stronger rebound in global commodity
prices could drive up in
fl
ation more than
currently expected.
Sweden is not subject to an EU Council decision
on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit. In the
reference year 2009 the general government
budget balance showed a de
fi
cit of 0.5% of
GDP, i.e. well below the 3% de
fi
cit reference
value. The general government debt-to-GDP
ratio was 42.3% of GDP, i.e. below the 60%
reference value. In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is
forecast by the European Commission to increase
to 2.1% of GDP and the government debt ratio is
projected to rise to 42.6%. With regard to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio did not exceed
the ratio of public investment to GDP in 2009.
As regards the sustainability of its public
fi
nances, according to the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Sweden appears to be at low risk. Further
fi
scal
consolidation is required for Sweden to comply
with the medium-term budgetary objective
speci
fi
ed in the Stability and Growth Pact, which
is quanti
fi
ed in the convergence programme as
a cyclically adjusted surplus net of one-off and
temporary measures of 1% of GDP.
53
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
4 C O U N T R Y
S U M M A R I E S
In the two-year reference period, the Swedish
krona did not participate in ERM II, but
traded under a
fl
exible exchange rate regime.
The krona depreciated sharply against the
euro between mid-2008 and March 2009 and
appreciated thereafter. The exchange rate of the
Swedish krona against the euro has recorded a
high degree of volatility since late 2008, while
short-term interest rate differentials against
the three-month EURIBOR turned negative
in January 2009 and have remained at around
-0.3 percentage point since the beginning of
2010. In March 2010 the real exchange rate
of the Swedish krona was close to its ten-year
historical averages, both bilaterally against
the euro and in effective terms. Sweden has
maintained large surpluses, of 6.7% of GDP
on average, in the combined current and capital
account of its balance of payments since 2000.
The countryâs net international investment
position improved gradually, from -35.1% of
GDP in 2000 to -1.6% in 2007, before abruptly
deteriorating to -14.1% and -19.7% of GDP in
2008 and 2009.
Long-term interest rates were 3.3% on average
over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 and thus well below the reference
value for the interest rate convergence criterion.
Since mid-2005 the differential between
Swedish long-term interest rates and bond
yields in the euro area has been negative.
Until June 2008 the differential hovered at around
-0.2 percentage point, but towards the end of the
reference period widened to -0.4 percentage
point, re
fl
ecting
fi
scal consolidation and, overall,
relatively low in
fl
ationary pressures.
Maintaining an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Sweden requires,
inter alia, the continuation of price stability-
oriented monetary policy and sound
fi
scal
policies over the medium term. Although
Sweden has achieved a high degree of
fi
scal
soundness, it is important that the income
tax ratio remains on a downward trend. In
addition, Sweden needs to deal with a wide
range of economic policy challenges, which are
described in more detail in Chapter 5.
Swedish law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Sweden is
a Member State with a derogation and must
therefore comply with all adaptation requirements
under Article 131 of the Treaty. Furthermore,
the ECB notes that, pursuant to the Treaty,
Sweden has been under the obligation to adopt
national legislation with a view to integration
into the Eurosystem since 1 June 1998. As yet no
legislative action has been taken by the Swedish
authorities to remedy the incompatibilities
described in this and previous reports.
55
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
B U L G A R I A
5
EXAMINATION OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE
5.1 BULGARIA
5.1.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Bulgaria was 1.7%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability (see Table 1). On the basis of the
most recent information, the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation is expected to remain
broadly constant in the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Bulgaria has been rather
volatile, averaging 6.7% on an annual basis
over the period 2000-09 (see Chart 1). From
2000 to 2003 in
fl
ation declined gradually,
from 10.3% to 2.3%, before rising signi
fi
cantly
again. The increase in in
fl
ation after 2003
re
fl
ected adjustments in administered prices, the
harmonisation of excise duties with EU levels, a
series of supply-side shocks (such as the hikes
in global energy and food prices) and increasing
demand pressures. The robust economic
expansion between 2004 and 2008 was fuelled
by massive foreign direct investment in
fl
ows
and very strong credit growth supported, inter
alia, by low, and at times negative, real interest
rates. Moreover, the rapid tightening of the
labour market, exacerbated in 2007 and 2008
by labour out
fl
ows to other Member States,
contributed to rapid growth in compensation per
employee, which consistently exceeded gains in
labour productivity and led to a deterioration in
Bulgariaâs competitive position. After peaking
at 12.0% in 2008, in
fl
ation declined sharply
to 2.5% in 2009, re
fl
ecting lower commodity
prices and the contraction of economic activity.
Economic and monetary policy choices have
played an important role in shaping in
fl
ation
developments over the past decade. The process
of disin
fl
ation up to 2003 was related to a number
of important policy choices, most notably the
orientation of monetary policy towards the
achievement of price stability, which is the primary
objective of monetary policy, as enshrined in the
central bank law. In 1997 Bulgaria adopted a
currency board arrangement. The lev was pegged
fi
rst to the Deutsche Mark and later to the euro.
The process of disin
fl
ation up to 2003 was also
supported by the implementation of a number of
reforms designed to enhance product and labour
market competition. During the period 2004-08,
however, the monetary policy conditions in
Bulgaria under the currency board arrangement
became too expansionary for a catching-up
economy with a signi
fi
cantly higher growth
potential than the euro area and that was faced
with overheating pressures. Despite a relatively
sound record of
fi
scal balances, the countryâs
overall policy stance was not suf
fi
ciently tight
to contain demand pressures and support price
stability. This was also re
fl
ected in excessive
credit growth and asset price bubbles. This
situation was not sustainable and in 2009 Bulgaria
entered a period of economic adjustment that was
further exacerbated by the impact of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis.
In
fl
ation developments over the past ten years
should be viewed against the background
of a robust economic expansion that was
accompanied by a build-up of signi
fi
cant
macroeconomic imbalances and vulnerabilities
(see Table 2). Until 2008 large capital in
fl
ows
into Bulgaria generated a boom in domestic
demand, and in particular in investment,
which led to an overheating economy. The
necessary correction of these unsustainable
economic trends was supported by the
contraction in imports and the deceleration in
capital in
fl
ows in the aftermath of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. In 2009 real
GDP declined by 5.0%, after an increase of
6.0% in 2008. The deterioration in economic
activity had a relatively moderate impact on
the unemployment rate, which increased from
5.6% in 2008 to 8.0% in the fourth quarter of
2009. Growth in compensation per employee
remained positive, declining to 3.5% year on
year in the fourth quarter of 2009. Together
with the cyclical decline in labour productivity,
this triggered an increase in unit labour costs,
which were 3.7% higher year on year in the
last quarter of 2009. Furthermore, given the
high degree of openness in the Bulgarian
56
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
economy, domestic price developments were
heavily in
fl
uenced by changes in import
prices. Overall, import prices were rather
volatile during the period under review,
mainly re
fl
ecting developments in oil and food
prices and in the effective exchange rate. The
general pattern of in
fl
ation developments is
also apparent from other relevant indices, such
as the HICP excluding unprocessed food and
energy. House prices declined strongly during
the period under review and, at the end of
2009, were 30% lower than their peak in the
third quarter of 2008.
Looking at recent developments, the annual
HICP in
fl
ation rate broadly followed a
downward path in 2009, bottoming out at
0.2% in September 2009 before increasing
again to stand at 2.4% in March 2010
(see Table 3a). The marked decline in in
fl
ation
up to September 2009 was supported by the
end of the economic boom, but due mainly
to lower food and energy prices over the year
compared with 2008, and their indirect effect
on some services prices (especially catering
and transport). From October 2009 in
fl
ation
started to rise again, re
fl
ecting mainly the
unwinding of the disin
fl
ationary impact
of energy prices throughout most of 2009.
In addition, increases in excise duties on
tobacco have had a signi
fi
cant upward impact
on HICP in
fl
ation since the beginning of 2010.
The current in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed
against the background of a strong retrenchment
in domestic spending, although there are some
initial signs of stabilisation in external demand:
according to preliminary estimates from the
Bulgarian Statistical Of
fi
ce, the year-on-year
decline in real output accelerated further to
-5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
2.2% to 2.6% for 2010 and from 2.7% to 3.2%
for 2011 (see Table 3b). In
fl
ation in 2010 will
be affected by the changes in excise duties on
tobacco (contributing around 1 percentage
point to annual average in
fl
ation) and by
the increase in energy prices (contributing
around 0.5 percentage point). Further declines
in domestic demand and decreases in the
employment rate are also expected to contribute
to moderate in
fl
ationary pressures in Bulgaria.
Higher than expected increases in commodity
prices are the main upside risk to the in
fl
ation
outlook, while the potential exacerbation of the
impact of increased spare capacity on wages
and domestic demand constitutes a source of
downside risk in the near term.
Looking further ahead, the catching-up process
is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation over
the coming years, given that GDP per capita
and price levels are still signi
fi
cantly lower in
Bulgaria than in the euro area (see Table 2).
However, it is dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size of
the in
fl
ation effect resulting from this catching-up
process. Once output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange rate regime, the underlying real
exchange rate appreciation trend is likely to
manifest itself in higher in
fl
ation. In the context
of the process of ongoing convergence, it cannot
be ruled out that signi
fi
cant demand pressure
may emerge again. Given the currency board
arrangement and the limitations of alternative
counter-cyclical policy instruments, it may be
dif
fi
cult to prevent macroeconomic imbalances,
including high rates of in
fl
ation, from building
up again. The experience with the strong
growth over the past few years highlights the
challenges that the Bulgarian authorities face in
achieving price stability in the virtual absence
of independent monetary policy.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Bulgaria requires the
conduct of economic policies geared towards
ensuring overall macroeconomic stability,
including sustainable price stability. Given
the limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy under the currency board arrangement,
it is imperative that other policy areas provide
the economy with the wherewithal to cope
with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid the
reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
More speci
fi
cally, the Bulgarian authorities
should continue with the
fi
scal consolidation
process and strictly avoid any slippage in public
57
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
B U L G A R I A
expenditure. Moreover, containing public
sector wage growth is important for supporting
sustainable developments in private sector wage
growth. Regarding structural reforms, further
improvements in the business environment
seem crucial to raising the growth potential of
the Bulgarian economy. Furthermore, additional
targeted measures to increase human capital
and enhance the
fl
exibility of the labour market
are required. In the current context of rising
unemployment, these measures are especially
important in order to avoid a signi
fi
cant increase
in structural unemployment or a decline in
the participation rate. In particular, it will be
necessary to tackle sectoral and educational
mismatches in the labour market and improve
the employability of potentially marginalised
groups. Wage increases should re
fl
ect labour
productivity growth, labour market conditions
and developments in competitor countries.
In order to sustain further economic expansion,
it will also be essential to strengthen national
policies aimed at enhancing competition
in product markets and to proceed with the
liberalisation of regulated sectors, as well as
with the improvement of the countryâs transport
infrastructure. Financial sector policies should
be geared towards preventing excessive credit
growth in the future. Given the potential
risks to
fi
nancial stability associated with the
high levels of foreign currency denominated
loans in Bulgaria, the introduction of concrete
macro-prudential measures to reduce the
underlying vulnerabilities related to foreign
currency lending is desirable, and warrants close
cooperation between home and host country
supervisory authorities. All these measures will
help to achieve an environment conducive to
sustainable price stability, as well as promote
competitiveness and employment growth. In order
to prevent the reoccurrence of macroeconomic
imbalances, which are then followed by a period
of dif
fi
cult adjustment, it is crucial to strengthen
policy tools, including a suf
fi
ciently strict
fi
scal
framework, to contain booms in domestic demand
that may be related to further episodes of strong
capital in
fl
ows or overly optimistic expectations
about future growth prospects.
5.1.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Bulgaria is not subject to an EU Council decision
on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit, but the
European Commission is initiating an excessive
de
fi
cit procedure by preparing a report under
Article 126(3). In the reference year 2009 the
general government budget balance showed a
de
fi
cit of 3.9% of GDP, i.e. above the 3% de
fi
cit
reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 14.8% of GDP, i.e. far
below the 60% reference value (see Table 4).
Compared with the previous year, the budget
balance deteriorated by 5.7 percentage points,
and the government debt ratio increased by
0.7 percentage point. In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio
is forecast by the European Commission to
decline to 2.8% of GDP and the government
debt ratio is projected to rise to 17.4%. With
regard to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio
did not exceed the ratio of public investment to
GDP in 2009.
Looking at developments in Bulgariaâs
budgetary position over the period 2000 to 2009,
the budget was close to balance in 2000 and,
following a marked improvement in 2004,
recorded surpluses until 2008, before turning
into de
fi
cit in 2009 (see Table 5 and Chart 2a).
As is shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
European Commission estimates indicate that
cyclical factors had only a limited impact on the
budget balance before 2009. At the same time,
non-cyclical factors contributed to an
improvement in the budget balance between
2003 and 2008 (except in 2007, when the
Bulgarian budget balance deteriorated strongly
as a result of sizeable debt cancellations to
Iraq). In the absence of temporary measures
particularly between 2005 and 2008, this seems
to have re
fl
ected a lasting improvement in
Bulgariaâs structural budgetary position, which
is measured as the cyclically adjusted budget
balance net of one-off and temporary measures.
When the
fi
nancial and economic crisis started
to have an adverse impact on the
fi
scal position
in 2009, the new Bulgarian government,
which was elected in July 2009, implemented
58
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
comprehensive consolidation measures, which
contributed to containing an
even more rapid
budgetary deterioration related to, among
other things, higher discretionary expenditure
in the
fi
rst half of the year. These measures
were aimed at cutting current expenditure in
particular and at raising tax revenue collection
by improving compliance with VAT and
corporate income tax rules to counteract the
fall in tax revenue. Assessing how Bulgariaâs
structural budgetary position changed during
the crisis is, however, particularly dif
fi
cult in
view of uncertainty over the level and growth
rate of potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2009 the
debt-to-GDP ratio declined cumulatively
by 59.5 percentage points (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). Primary surpluses and the positive
growth/interest rate differential in particular
contributed favourably to this development
(see Chart 3b). Noticeable debt-reducing
de
fi
cit-debt adjustments in the
fi
rst half of
the decade (see Table 7) re
fl
ected, inter alia,
the effects of debt restructuring, debt buyback
and prepayment. In 2009 the general government
debt-to-GDP ratio increased only slightly
despite a strongly deteriorating macroeconomic
environment and a sizeable primary de
fi
cit,
re
fl
ecting also a declining
fi
scal reserve.
As regards Bulgariaâs general government
debt structure, the share of public debt with a
short-term maturity was negligible in the period
under review (see Table 6). Fiscal balances are
therefore insensitive to changes in interest rates.
At the same time, the proportion of government
debt denominated in foreign currency remained,
at 76.6%, large in 2009, although it had fallen
considerably over the past decade. With 54.7%
of government debt denominated in euro,
fi
scal
balances are relatively insensitive to changes in
exchange rates other than the euro/lev exchange
rate. As regards most recent developments, the
impact of the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis on Bulgariaâs debt structure was negligible.
At the same time, the Bulgarian government has
not incurred contingent liabilities resulting from
government interventions to support
fi
nancial
institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
crisis (see the statistical section).
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure ratio
declined from 42.6% of GDP in 2000 to 40.7%
in 2009. This decline mainly re
fl
ects a fall in
current expenditure (of 3.1 percentage points)
related to, inter alia, a downsizing of public
administration and reductions in payable interest
(of 3.2 percentage points). These effects were
only partly compensated for by an increase in
capital expenditure (of 1.3 percentage points).
Government revenue in relation to GDP also
followed a declining trend, standing at 36.9% of
GDP in 2009. This relates to declines in social
security contributions (of 3.0 percentage points),
including a reduction in contributions to the public
pension pillar, and other revenues, e.g. from EU
funds (of 3.3 percentage points), which were only
partly compensated for by higher revenues from
indirect taxes (of 1.6 percentage points).
Looking ahead, according to Bulgariaâs medium-
term
fi
scal strategy, as presented in the 2009-12
update of the convergence programme (dated
January 2010 and thus preceding the European
Commission forecasts shown in Table 4),
the government aims to achieve a balanced
budget in 2010 and small surpluses in 2011 and
2012. For 2010 the convergence programme
suggests that the government is planning for
an improvement in the budget balance of
1.9 percentage points. According to this
fi
scal
strategy, from 2010 onwards the structural
balance will be above the medium-term budgetary
objective (speci
fi
ed in line with the Stability
and Growth Pact), which is quanti
fi
ed in the
convergence programme as a structural surplus of
0.5% of GDP. This new medium-term budgetary
objective is 1 percentage point lower than that
targeted in the last convergence programme. The
total revenue-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to pick
up, notably in 2010 (by 1.7 percentage points),
reaching 39.1% in 2012. This re
fl
ects, inter alia,
the expected bene
fi
ts of improvements in the
ef
fi
ciency and effectiveness of tax administration.
59
ECB
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May 2010
B U L G A R I A
At the same time, the total expenditure ratio is
envisaged to
decline slightly over the programme
horizon, reaching 39.0% of GDP in 2012. This
re
fl
ects, inter alia, a reduction in the category
âotherâ expenditure, the effect of which is partly
compensated for by higher government spending
on pensions. Furthermore, the government
gross debt ratio is expected to remain broadly
unchanged over the programme horizon, reaching
14.4% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on Bulgariaâs public
fi
nances over the long term, as indicated in
Table 8, the country is facing a steep increase in
the old age dependency ratio. According to the
2009 projections of the European Commission
and the EUâs Economic Policy Committee,
starting from a level of 17.1% of GDP in 2010,
Bulgaria is likely to experience a notable increase
in age-related government expenditure in the
years between 2010 and 2060, amounting to
3.1 percentage points.
1
Continued vigilance is
required as actual demographic, economic and
fi
nancial developments may turn out to be less
favourable than expected. In the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Bulgaria is assessed to be at low risk with regard
to the sustainability of its public
fi
nances.
2
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, it is important that
Bulgaria reduces its budget de
fi
cit to below 3% of
GDP through continued
fi
scal consolidation based
on cuts in public expenditure and reforms of tax
administration and customs aimed at increasing
tax revenue collection. At the same time, the
quality of public expenditure should be improved
by strengthening the role of productivity-
enhancing public investment. In this respect,
public sector wage restraint is important for
moderate overall wage developments. Bulgariaâs
fi
scal policy strategy should be supported by a
suf
fi
ciently strict
fi
scal framework with clear
and predictable expenditure rules that do not
allow slippages in public expenditure in the event
of higher than expected revenues. Given the
unexpected strong upward revision of the 2009
budget de
fi
cit, the transparency of the budgetary
process should be improved, in particular by
strengthening accounting rules.
5.1.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
In the two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010, the Bulgarian
lev did not participate in ERM II, but was
pegged to the euro at 1.95583 levs per euro
within the framework of a currency board
arrangement (see Table 9a). This arrangement,
which was adopted in July 1997 to address the
fi
nancial crisis and hyperin
fl
ationary pressures,
was initially based on a commitment to maintain
a
fi
xed exchange rate to the Deutsche Mark.
In January 1999 the reference currency was
changed to the euro. Re
fl
ecting the currency
board regime, the lev did not exhibit any
deviation from the rate of 1.95583 levs per euro,
which is used as a benchmark for illustrative
purposes in the absence of an ERM II central
rate (see Chart 5 and Table 9a). As implied by
the currency board regime,
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank) continued
to be regularly active in the foreign exchange
market. Overall, its purchases and sales of
foreign currency during the two-year reference
period resulted in a net sale.
Short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR were relatively wide
until late 2008, standing at 2.4 percentage points
in the three-month period ending in October
2008. Thereafter, the spread increased to even
higher levels on account of the unfavourable
outlook for Bulgariaâs economy, as re
fl
ected
in the downgrades of the Bulgarian sovereign
credit rating by rating agencies, and the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. The spread
reached a high level of 3.6 percentage points in
the three-month period ending in March 2010
(see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, both bilaterally against
the euro and in effective terms, in March 2010
the real exchange rate of the Bulgarian lev
stood well above its ten-year historical averages
(see Table 10). However, these measures should
â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
1
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
2
60
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
be interpreted with caution, as in this period
Bulgaria was subject to a process of economic
convergence, which complicates any historical
assessment of real exchange rate developments.
As regards other external developments, the
de
fi
cit in the combined current and capital
account of the balance of payments widened
progressively from 2.4% of GDP in 2002 to
the very high level of 28.9% of GDP in 2007.
While high current account de
fi
cits may have
been partly associated with the catching-up
process of an economy like Bulgariaâs, de
fi
cits
of such magnitude have raised concerns about
their sustainability. Indeed the need to correct
these large de
fi
cits was obvious at the beginning
of the far-reaching adjustment process Bulgaria
had to undergo following the overheating
period. After a strong fall in domestic demand,
which led to lower imports, the de
fi
cit decreased
substantially, from a very high level of 23.2%
of GDP in 2008 to a high level of 8.0% in
2009. This shift in the current account balance
re
fl
ected primarily a substantial reduction in the
goods de
fi
cit, a decrease in the income de
fi
cit
and an increasing services surplus. The shifts
recorded in the balance of payments of Bulgaria
over the past two years have been associated
with a slowdown of capital in
fl
ows, against the
background of the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. Before the crisis, on average, net in
fl
ows
in direct investment almost entirely covered
the
fi
nancing needs of Bulgariaâs economy.
However, foreign direct investment in
fl
ows
decreased sharply between 2008 and 2009. In
addition, other investment, which had reached
double-digit levels as a percentage of GDP
between 2007 and 2008, recorded out
fl
ows in
2009. Against this background, gross external
debt has increased sharply, from 86.9% of GDP
in 2000 to 108.8% and 111.3% at the end of
2008 and 2009 respectively. At the same time
Bulgariaâs net international investment position
deteriorated substantially, from -34.4% of
GDP in 2000 to -101.8% and -109.6% of GDP
in 2008 and 2009 respectively. The high level
of this position and its rapid deterioration also
points to the importance of policies supporting
external sustainability. Bulgaria is a small open
economy, although the ratio of foreign trade
in goods and services to GDP has contracted
signi
fi
cantly, from 60.3% in 2008 to 49.2%
in 2009 for exports and from 81.6% in 2008
to 56.7% in 2009 for imports (see Table 11).
With the normalisation of global
fi
nancial
market conditions, reaching and maintaining
a sustainable, long-term external position will
depend on implementation of the appropriate
domestic economic policies.
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods to
the euro area constituted 49.2% of total exports,
whereas the corresponding
fi
gure for imports
amounted to 43.5%. The share of euro area
countries in Bulgariaâs inward direct investment
stood at 69.1% in 2009 and in its portfolio
investment liabilities at 85.4% in 2008. The
share of Bulgariaâs assets invested in the euro
area amounted to 42.9% in the case of direct
investment in 2009 and 55.2% for portfolio
investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
5.1.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 long-term interest rates in Bulgaria
were 6.9% on average and thus above the 6.0%
reference value for the interest rate convergence
criterion (see Table 13).
Bulgarian long-term interest rates followed a
declining trend from January 2003 until the end
of 2005 (see Chart 6a).
3
In the light of a budget
surplus and robust economic growth, rating
agencies raised the outlook on Bulgariaâs credit
rating in October 2005. Long-term interest rates
subsequently increased throughout most of 2006
in an environment of increasing in
fl
ationary
pressures and widening current account de
fi
cits.
The moderate upward trend in long-term interest
rates continued in 2007, although it was
interrupted by periods of downward movement.
Also, the secondary market had only limited
Data are available on the reference long-term interest rate for
3
Bulgaria from 2003 onwards.
61
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
B U L G A R I A
depth, and the prices tended to be volatile with
wide bid-ask spreads. Regulatory changes
concerning the primary dealers were therefore
introduced, and the trading volume on the
primary and the secondary market for
government securities increased substantially at
the beginning of 2008. The acceleration of
in
fl
ation facilitated further increases in long-
term interest rates in 2008. Towards the end of
2008 two rating agencies downgraded Bulgariaâs
government bond rating, owing to concerns
about deteriorating domestic economic
conditions, and long-term interest rates increased
sharply to 7.8% at the end of 2008. While
in
fl
ationary pressures started to ease at the end
of 2008, leading to near zero in
fl
ation in
October 2009, long-term interest rates between
December 2008 and September 2009
fl
uctuated
at elevated levels between 7.1% and 7.8%. The
weak primary market supply and the
international
fi
nancial crisis contributed to the
low liquidity and increased volatility of the local
secondary market for government securities,
which at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009
was characterised by just a few transactions and
the use of indicative quotes to determine the
level of long-term rates. During summer 2009
the new government announced its plan to
increase primary issuance of government bonds
in order to boost liquidity in the local market for
government securities. At the end of 2009 a
rating agency revised the outlook on Bulgaria
from negative to stable. From October 2009, in
an environment of increased investor interest,
long-term interest rates declined considerably,
reaching 5.8% in March 2010.
Re
fl
ecting the strong decline in Bulgarian
long-term interest rates between 2003 and 2005,
the spread between long-term interest rates in
Bulgaria and the euro area followed a declining
trend until the end of 2005. Thereafter, until the
end of 2008 Bulgarian long-term interest rates
moved broadly in line with those in the euro
area and the spread increased slightly, but stayed
mostly between 0.2 and 1.1 percentage points
(see Chart 6b). However, from November 2008
the long-term interest differential vis-Ă -vis
the euro area increased to 4.0 percentage points,
mainly owing to concerns about economic
imbalances, which were mirrored by downgrades
of Bulgariaâs rating by two agencies, and to the
impact of the global
fi
nancial turmoil and low
liquidity in the primary and secondary markets.
An increase in traded volume of government
securities in October 2009 and a narrowing
of the in
fl
ation differential to almost zero
were accompanied by a strong decline in the
long-term interest rate spread (2.2 percentage
points in March 2010) compared with peak
levels of around 4.0 percentage points in
August 2009 and December 2008.
Regarding
fi
nancial integration and
development, the Bulgarian capital market
is smaller and much less developed than
in the euro area (see Table 14). The stock
market capitalisation has declined more than
twice since the start of the global
fi
nancial
turmoil, reaching 17.8% of GDP in 2009,
and is very low compared with the euro
area. Bulgariaâs
fi
nancial sector is heavily
bank-based, with foreign-owned banks,
primarily from the euro area, dominating the
banking sector. The value of outstanding bank
loans gradually increased over the period
2004-09 but remained relatively low at 77.5%
of GDP at the end of 2009. The majority of
loans to the private sector are issued in euro. The
corporate sectorâs market-based indebtedness,
as measured by the value of outstanding
fi
xed income securities issued by corporations,
was around 3.1% of GDP at the end of 2009.
The international claims of euro area banks in
Bulgaria, de
fi
ned as the share of total liabilities
of loans from euro area banks to banks in the
country, amounted to 21.1% in 2009.
63
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
B U L G A R I A
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
BULGARIA
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
6 4
Chart 1
Price developments
6 4
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
6 4
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
6 5
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
6 5
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
6 5
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
6 6
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
6 6
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
6 7
(a) Levels
6 7
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
6 7
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
6 7
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
6 8
(a) Levels
6 8
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
6 8
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
6 8
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
6 9
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
6 9
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
7 0
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Bulgarian lev
7 0
Chart 5
Bulgarian lev: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
7 0
(a) Exchange rate over the
reference period
7 0
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
7 0
Table 10
Bulgarian lev: real exchange
rate developments
7 1
Table 11 External developments
7 1
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
7 1
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
7 2
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
7 2
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
7 2
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
7 2
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
7 2
64
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.4
1.7
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
Chart 1
Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
10.3
7.4
5.8
2.3
6.1
6.0
7.4
7.6
12.0
2.5
HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy
8.8
7.5
5.8
1.8
5.9
3.6
8.1
8.2
12.0
4.1
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
4.9
6.0
5.4
7.2
11.3
1.9
CPI
10.3
7.4
5.8
2.3
6.1
5.0
7.3
8.4
12.3
2.8
Private consumption de
fl
ator
4.5
6.0
4.1
0.2
4.4
5.2
5.7
6.8
11.0
1.7
GDP de
fl
ator
6.7
6.7
3.3
1.8
5.1
3.8
8.5
7.9
11.4
4.6
Producer prices
2)
19.4
3.5
2.2
2.8
5.4
7.2
8.7
8.0
13.3
-4.3
Related indicators
Real GDP growth
5.4
4.1
4.5
5.0
6.6
6.2
6.3
6.2
6.0
-5.0
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro area = 100)
24.8
26.1
27.8
29.3
30.8
31.7
33.4
34.5
38.2
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
38.6
40.7
40.6
39.5
40.7
42.3
44.0
45.5
48.3
-
Output gap
4)
-0.8
0.6
1.7
1.7
2.8
3.1
3.7
4.3
5.0
-2.9
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
16.4
19.5
18.1
13.7
12.1
10.1
9.0
6.9
5.6
6.8
Unit labour costs, whole economy
0.3
9.6
1.6
3.0
1.0
2.4
4.4
14.2
16.2
10.6
Compensation per employee, whole economy
8.3
14.9
5.9
5.1
4.9
5.9
7.4
17.9
19.3
8.2
Labour productivity, whole economy
8.0
4.9
4.3
2.0
4.0
3.5
2.9
3.2
2.7
-2.1
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
15.0
0.1
-2.0
-1.9
4.7
8.7
10.3
6.9
9.6
-11.4
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
-2.9
0.7
0.9
4.0
1.0
-1.1
-0.2
1.0
1.2
0.9
Money supply (M3)
30.8
25.8
11.7
19.6
23.1
23.8
28.6
33.0
8.5
4.6
Lending from banks
16.6
33.0
42.9
48.8
48.7
31.8
24.8
64.5
32.4
4.1
Stock prices (Bulgarian Stock Exchange SOFIX Index)
-
11.1
54.3
148.2
37.6
32.0
48.3
44.4
-79.7
19.1
Residential property prices
-0.8
0.3
1.8
12.2
47.5
36.6
14.7
28.9
24.9
-21.4
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
65
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
B U L G A R I A
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
0.9
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.4
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-0.6
1.7
3.0
3.8
3.8
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
1.4
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.7
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
2.3
2.7
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1)
-
-
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
2.2
2.9
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
2.6
3.2
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
1) Bulgaria is not an OECD member.
66
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008 2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
1.8 -3.9 -2.8
Reference
value
-3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
7.5 1.0 1.7
General government gross debt
14.1
14.8
17.4
Reference
value
60.0 60.0 60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
42.2 40.9 39.5 40.0 41.3 41.2 39.5 41.5 39.1 36.9
Current
revenue
42.5 42.0 40.0 40.6 42.0 41.6 39.7 40.9 38.7 37.0
Direct
taxes
6.9 7.4 6.3 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.5 6.6 6.5 6.0
Indirect
taxes
15.0 14.6 14.4 15.8 17.5 18.7 19.4 18.5 18.1 16.6
Social
security
contributions
11.0
10.0 9.5
10.6
10.5
10.3 8.7 8.7 8.1 8.0
Other
current
revenue
9.7
10.0 9.9 7.8 8.2 7.2 6.1 7.2 6.0 6.4
Capital
revenue
-0.3 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 0.4 -0.2
Total expenditure
42.6 40.3 40.3 40.3 39.7 39.3 36.5 41.5 37.3 40.7
Current
expenditure
38.6 36.4 36.7 36.9 35.9 35.0 32.2 33.4 31.7 35.5
Compensation
of
employees
10.0 8.9 9.6
10.4
10.2 9.8 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.7
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
12.7 12.0 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.5 12.5
Interest
payable
4.0 3.3 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
current
expenditure
11.8 12.2 12.1 11.8 11.9 11.6 10.5 12.5 11.4 12.5
Capital
expenditure
4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.3 8.1 5.6 5.3
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-0.3 0.6 -0.8 -0.3 1.6 1.9 3.0 0.1 1.8 -3.9
Primary
balance
3.7 4.0 1.5 1.7 3.4 3.6 4.4 1.1 2.7 -3.1
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
3.3 4.1 2.1 2.4 4.5 6.1 7.2 4.8 7.5 1.0
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
67
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
B U L G A R I A
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
74.3 67.3 53.6 45.9 37.9 29.2 22.7 18.2 14.1 14.8
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
5.1 5.6 8.7 9.5 12.5 15.8 19.2 23.2 24.6 23.4
In
foreign
currencies
94.9 94.4 91.3 90.5 87.5 84.2 80.8 76.8 75.4 76.6
Euro
1)
8.7 11.2 27.7 34.2 39.8 47.8 52.7 53.3 52.1 54.7
Other
foreign
currencies
86.3 83.1 63.7 56.4 47.7 36.4 28.1 23.4 23.4 21.9
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
9.0 10.5 16.2 18.5 20.5 30.3 35.3 41.1 47.4 44.1
Average residual maturity
(in
years)
12.2
11.6
10.1 9.4 7.9 8.0 7.5 7.7 7.2 7.2
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term
(up
to
and
including
one
year) 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Medium
and
long-term
(over
one
year)
99.0 99.3 99.3 99.5 99.5 99.8
100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-5
0
5
-5
0
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-10
-5
0
5
-10
-5
0
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
68
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Chart 4
General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
total expenditure
total revenue
Source: ESCB.
Chart 3
General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
0
20
40
60
80
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
69
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May 2010
B U L G A R I A
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Change in general government debt
1)
3.2 0.4 -8.1
-4.3 -3.0 -5.2 -2.7 -1.6 -1.3 0.6
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-0.3
0.6
-0.8
-0.3
1.6
1.9
3.0
0.1
1.8
-3.9
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
2.9 1.0 -8.9 -4.6 -1.5 -3.3 0.4 -1.5 0.5 -3.3
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
-4.5 -1.4 -2.1 0.7 -0.3 -5.0 1.5 -1.1 0.3 -1.4
Currency
and
deposits
-0.9 -2.0 2.3 2.8 2.7 -1.2 3.2 3.0 0.4 -1.9
Loans and securities other than shares
0.1
0.2
-1.9
0.2
-1.4
0.6
0.2
-3.2
-0.7
0.0
Shares
and
other
equity
-3.7 0.2 -1.1 -2.7 -5.6 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.1 0.9
Privatisations
-4.0 -2.3 -1.3 -2.9 -7.2 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5
Equity
injections
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4
Other
0.3 2.6 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
fi
nancial
assets
0.0 0.2 -1.4 0.4 4.0 -2.8 -0.5 0.2 0.7 -0.4
Valuation changes of general government debt
3.7 2.2 -6.5 -5.1 -1.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.3 0.0
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
3.8
2.2
-5.6
-5.1
-1.1
1.6
-0.8
-0.5
0.3
-0.1
Other valuation effects
2)
-0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Other changes in general government debt
3)
3.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -1.8
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
25.0
25.3
31.1
36.3
43.6
55.4
63.5
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
16.9
17.1
16.5
16.9
17.9
19.6
20.2
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
70
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May 2010
3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
No
Exchange rate level in April 2008 in BGN/EUR
1.95583
Maximum upward deviation
1)
0.0
Maximum downward deviation
1)
0.0
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its average level in April 2008 over the period
24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency was
stronger (weaker) than its exchange rate level in April 2008.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Bulgarian lev
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008
2009
2010
June
Sep.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sep.
Dec.
Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
2.0
2.3 3.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
Chart 5
Bulgarian lev: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Exchange rate over the reference period
(daily data; average of April 2008 = 100;
24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; average of April 2008 = 100;
April 2000-April 2010)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2008
2009
104
102
100
98
96
104
106
106
102
100
98
96
94
94
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: ECB.
Note: An upward (downward) movement of the line indicates an appreciation (depreciation) of the Bulgarian lev.
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B U L G A R I A
Table 10
Bulgarian lev: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
20.6
Memo items
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
1.9
Real effective exchange rate
1), 2)
21.0
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-5.4 -5.6 -2.4 -5.5 -5.8
-11.3
-17.7
-28.9
-23.2 -8.0
Current
account
balance
-5.6 -5.6 -2.4 -5.5 -6.6
-12.4
-18.4
-26.8
-24.0 -9.4
Goods
balance
-9.4 -11.7 -11.3 -13.7 -14.9 -20.2 -22.0 -25.1 -25.2 -12.1
Services
balance
4.0 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.6
Income
balance
-2.5 0.2 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.3 -2.7 -8.2 -5.2 -4.7
Current
transfers
balance
2.3 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8
Capital
account
balance
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 -2.0 0.8 1.4
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
6.6 6.4 5.1 9.2 9.2
10.0
25.3
28.8
16.0 8.0
Direct
investment
balance
8.0 5.9 5.7 10.3 11.3 14.7 24.1 30.6 18.2 9.8
Portfolio
investment
balance
-1.5 0.5 -0.6 -1.1 -2.1 -4.7 1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8
Other
investment
balance
2.2 -2.2 5.1 4.9 3.1 7.5 2.2
17.9
17.5 -1.6
Reserve
assets
-3.6 -2.1 -3.5 -4.6 -7.5 -1.5 -6.0
-10.1 -2.0 1.9
Exports
of
goods
and
services
55.7 53.6 51.4 53.1 56.7 59.5 64.2 63.2 60.3 49.2
Imports
of
goods
and
services
61.1 63.1 59.7 63.7 68.2 76.0 82.6 84.2 81.6 56.7
Net international investment position
2)
-34.4 -27.6 -25.9 -27.2 -30.9 -46.9 -60.8 -86.4
-101.8
-109.6
Gross external debt
2)
86.9 78.6 65.0 60.1 63.3 70.9 82.0
100.4
108.8
111.3
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
49.2 52.4 53.2 54.2 52.2 51.1 49.9 48.9 45.8 49.2
Imports
of
goods
41.4 46.0 47.0 46.6 45.4 48.4 46.9 43.6 41.3 43.5
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
64.9 67.2 69.6 68.0 69.0 70.5 68.9 67.7 67.2 69.1
Outward direct investment
1)
-
25.6 25.8 36.8
135.5 33.1 24.6 43.1 56.1 42.9
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
24.6 32.4 41.9 54.4 77.5 67.1 79.8 85.4
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
24.1 23.1 35.6 62.2 55.7 47.3 60.5 55.2
-
Memo items
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
56.2 60.7 62.1 63.2 62.2 60.0 60.7 60.8 60.0 64.4
Imports
of
goods
52.9 57.1 57.7 57.7 57.0 62.6 61.1 58.5 56.7 60.3
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
72
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May 2010
4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
6.6 6.7 6.1 5.8 6.9
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.9 4.4 3.5 3.1
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
1.1 3.7 4.2 7.9 10.4 19.7 31.0 51.3 18.7 17.8
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
12.5 14.8 19.4 27.0 36.0 43.2 46.6 66.4 74.2 77.5
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14.0 22.6 21.1
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
73
ECB
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May 2010
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
5.2 CZECH
REPUBLIC
5.2.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009
to March 2010, the 12-month average rate of
HICP in
fl
ation in the Czech Republic was 0.3%,
i.e. well below the reference value of 1.0% for
the criterion on price stability (see Table 1).
On the basis of the most recent information,
the 12-month average rate of HICP in
fl
ation is
expected to decrease in the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in the Czech Republic followed
a broad downward trend until 2003, when it
reached slightly negative rates. Thereafter it
fl
uctuated mostly in a range of 1% to 3% until
2007. Price pressures started to pick up again in
late 2007, mainly as a result of higher food and
energy prices, together with some administrative
measures, and reached 7.9% at the beginning
of 2008. Driven by the collapse of global and
domestic demand and by base effects related
to earlier increases in administered and global
commodities prices, consumer prices started to
fall sharply in late 2008, temporarily turning
negative in 2009.
The Czech Republicâs medium-term in
fl
ation
performance re
fl
ects a number of important
policy choices, most notably the orientation
of monetary policy towards the achievement
of price stability. In 1998 the Czech Republic
adopted an in
fl
ation targeting framework,
having abandoned the
fi
xed peg of the koruna
in 1997 in favour of a
fl
exible exchange rate
regime. Since April 2001 the in
fl
ation target has
been de
fi
ned in terms of CPI in
fl
ation, originally
as a continuously declining band and, since
2006, as a
fl
at point target. The CPI in
fl
ation
target was set at 3% (Âą1 percentage point) in
2006 and reduced to 2% (Âą1 percentage point)
on 1 January 2010. The disin
fl
ation process,
which has been broadly supported by a number
of reforms designed to enhance product market
competition, has taken place despite loose
fi
scal
conditions at times.
In
fl
ation developments should be viewed
against the background of robust real GDP
growth over most of the past decade. Between
2003 and 2007 macroeconomic developments
were characterised by a sustained upswing in
economic activity, before the economy started
to slow markedly in 2008. The sustained high
level of growth, which was driven by an in
fl
ow
of foreign direct investment into export-oriented
industries, contributed to an improvement in
the labour market and an increase in the growth
of credit to the private sector. Over the entire
period under review, with the exception of 2005,
growth in compensation per employee remained
above labour productivity growth, which led
to persistent increases in unit labour costs.
During the period 2002-05 growth in unit labour
costs decelerated notably, before rising again over
the next two years, owing to the tightening labour
market. The fall in import prices throughout
most of the period under review largely re
fl
ected
the appreciation of the effective exchange rate.
The general pattern of in
fl
ation developments is
also apparent from other relevant indices, such as
the HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy
(see Table 2). Given its close integration in the
international supply chain and specialisation in
the export of capital goods, the Czech economy
went into deep recession as a result of the collapse
in world trade in the aftermath of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. There was then a
contraction in exports and domestic demand, and
in particular in investment. Nevertheless, exports
started to pick up again in the second half of
2009, owing in part to the car-scrapping schemes
that were introduced.
Looking at recent developments, the decline in
in
fl
ation continued in 2009. In
fl
ation bottomed
out at -0.6% in October 2009 before increasing
again to stand at 0.4% in March 2010 (see
Table 3a). The initial decline in in
fl
ation up
to October 2009 re
fl
ected the fading effect
of increases in administered prices in 2008.
Lower global oil and food prices compared
with 2008 also contributed to the decrease in
in
fl
ation in 2009. HICP in
fl
ation excluding
unprocessed food and energy increased slightly
74
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
less than headline HICP in
fl
ation (see Table 2).
The increase in in
fl
ation towards the end of
2009 took place on the back of an increase
in global energy prices. While labour market
conditions weakened markedly, with annual
growth in compensation per employee turning
negative in the second quarter of 2009, declines
in productivity limited the moderation in unit
labour costs. Changes in administered prices had
a positive, albeit moderating, effect on in
fl
ation
in 2009. The current in
fl
ation picture should be
viewed against the background of deep economic
recession, with real GDP contracting by 4.2% in
2009. Supported by strong export growth, output
growth recovered markedly in mid-2009.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
1.0% to 1.6% for 2010 and from 1.3% to 2.2%
for 2011 (see Table 3b). It is anticipated that
the increases in indirect taxes introduced at the
beginning of 2010 and the increase in global
commodities prices will lead to higher annual
in
fl
ation rates, while weak domestic demand
is likely to dampen in
fl
ationary pressures.
Upside risks to the in
fl
ation outlook are associated
with larger than expected hikes in commodity
prices, in particular global oil prices, while the
performance of exports, without the support of
the car-scrapping schemes, constitutes a source
of downside risk. Looking further ahead, the
catching-up process is also likely to have a
bearing on in
fl
ation and/or on the nominal
exchange rate over the coming years given that
GDP per capita and price levels are still lower
in the Czech Republic than in the euro area
(see Table 2). However, it is dif
fi
cult to assess
the exact size of the effect resulting from this
catching-up process.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in the Czech Republic
requires, inter alia, maintaining price stability-
oriented monetary policy and implementing a
comprehensive and credible
fi
scal consolidation
path in line with the requirements under the
EDP. At the same time measures should
aim at improving the ef
fi
ciency of public
services delivery, public procurement and tax
administration. Improvements in the functioning
of the labour market, such as increasing regional
labour mobility and addressing skill mismatches,
would also be needed in order to enhance
labour market
fl
exibility. This is of paramount
importance at the current juncture in order to avoid
a signi
fi
cant increase in structural unemployment
or a decline in the labour force participation
rate. At the same time wage increases should
re
fl
ect labour productivity growth, labour market
conditions and developments in competitor
countries. It will also be essential to strengthen
national policies aimed at enhancing competition
in product markets (in particular in electricity,
gas and telecommunications) and to proceed with
the further liberalisation of regulated sectors.
Financial sector policies should be geared
towards preventing excessive credit growth in
the future. Such measures will help to achieve
an environment conducive to sustainable price
stability, as well as promote competitiveness and
employment growth.
5.2.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
The Czech Republic is at present subject to an
EU Council decision on the existence of an
excessive de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the
general government budget balance showed a
de
fi
cit of 5.9% of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above
the 3% reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 35.4%, i.e. well below the
60% reference value (see Table 4). Compared
with the previous year, the de
fi
cit ratio increased
by 3.2 percentage points and the government
debt ratio increased by 5.4 percentage points.
In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is forecast by the
European Commission to decrease to 5.7%
and the government debt ratio is projected to
increase to 39.8%. With regard to other
fi
scal
factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the ratio of
public investment to GDP in 2009.
Looking back over the years 2000 to
2009, the de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio exhibited a
volatile pattern, reaching very high levels,
particularly at the beginning of the decade
(see Chart 2a and Table 5). Starting from
3.7% in 2000, the de
fi
cit ratio
fi
rst worsened
75
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
to 6.8% in 2002, then improved to 0.7% in
2007 before rising again sharply in 2008.
Against the background of these budgetary
developments, an EU Council decision on
the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit was
adopted in 2004 and then abrogated in 2008
in the light of a de
fi
cit outcome below the
reference value in 2007. As the de
fi
cit ratio
was projected to rise above the reference
value in 2009, the ECOFIN Council decided
on 2 December 2009 that an excessive de
fi
cit
situation existed in the Czech Republic and
set the deadline for correcting it at 2013. As is
shown in greater detail in Chart 2b, European
Commission estimates indicate that cyclical
factors had an overall positive impact on
the budget balance before 2008. In the years
before the crisis, and since 2005 in particular,
non-cyclical factors tended to weaken the
structural position of Czech public
fi
nances,
which is measured as the cyclically adjusted
budget balance net of one-off and temporary
measures. When the
fi
nancial and economic
crisis started to have an adverse impact on the
fi
scal position, the Czech government adopted
sizeable stimulus packages in December 2008
and in February 2009. At the same time, the
corporate income tax reform and the reduction
in social security contributions approved
before the crisis acted as a
fi
scal stimulus. It
is planned that the budgetary impact of the
stimulus measures in 2010 will be offset by
a consolidation package that was adopted in
October 2009, including increases in VAT and
excise duties as well as a public sector wage
freeze. Assessing how the Czech Republicâs
structural budgetary position changed during
the crisis is, however, particularly dif
fi
cult in
view of uncertainty over the level and growth
rate of potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2009 the
debt-to-GDP ratio increased cumulatively
by 16.9 percentage points (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). It increased from 18.5% in 2000 to
30.1% in 2004 and then gradually declined
until 2007, before picking up strongly in
2009. As shown in greater detail in Chart 3b,
the strongest factor driving the increase in the
general government debt ratio was the primary
de
fi
cit. The impact of de
fi
cit-debt adjustments
was volatile, but overall debt-decreasing
(Table 7). The growth/interest rate differential
had an overall dampening effect on the debt
ratio before 2009. In 2009 the notable rise in the
general government debt-to-GDP ratio re
fl
ected
the deteriorating macroeconomic environment,
a sharp increase in the primary de
fi
cit and a
negative growth/interest rate differential.
As regards the Czech Republicâs general
government debt structure, the share of
government debt with a short-term maturity
declined from 45.5% in 2000 to a low level of
6.4% in 2009 (see Table 6). Fiscal balances are
therefore relatively insensitive to changes in
interest rates. The proportion of government debt
denominated in foreign currency is noticeable
at 16.4%. Given the level of the government
debt-to-GDP ratio, the
fi
scal balances are
relatively insensitive to changes in exchange
rates. During the
fi
nancial and economic
crisis, the share of debt denominated in foreign
currency rose, pointing to a rise in debt-related
vulnerabilities. At the same time, the Czech
government has not incurred contingent
liabilities resulting from government
interventions to support
fi
nancial institutions
and
fi
nancial markets during the crisis (see the
statistical section).
With regard to trends in other
fi
scal indicators,
Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the general
government total expenditure-to-GDP ratio
increased from 41.8% in 2000 to 46.2% in
2009. This level is high in comparison with
other countries with a similar level of per capita
income and even compared with some of the
highly advanced economies. The expenditure
ratio declined from a high of 47.3% in 2003
to 42.5% in 2007, driven by a decline in all
spending categories except social bene
fi
ts,
before increasing again in 2008 and 2009.
Total government revenue has increased by
2.2 percentage points since 2000, standing at
40.3% of GDP in 2009, re
fl
ecting increases in
all revenue categories except indirect taxes.
76
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Looking ahead, the medium-term
fi
scal policy
strategy of the Czech Republic, as presented
in the 2009-12 update of the convergence
programme (dated February 2010 and thus
preceding the European Commission forecasts
shown in Table 4), envisages a gradual decline
in the de
fi
cit ratio to 4.2% of GDP in 2012.
According to this
fi
scal strategy, for 2010, the
Czech government is planning for a reduction
in the de
fi
cit of 1.3 percentage points to 5.3%,
followed by a reduction of 0.5 percentage point
in 2011 and 2012. At the same time, until and
including 2012, the structural de
fi
cit will be
above the medium-term objective speci
fi
ed in the
Stability and Growth Pact, which was unchanged
in the 2009-12 update of the convergence
programme and is quanti
fi
ed as a structural
de
fi
cit of 1% of GDP. While total revenues are
projected to increase slightly as a share of GDP,
the total expenditure ratio is expected to decrease
from 2010 to 2012. These changes are based on
an assumption of tax increases and, in particular,
expenditure cuts that will have to be speci
fi
ed
and adopted by the new government. Moreover,
the government gross debt ratio is anticipated to
increase to 42.0% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on the Czech
Republicâs public
fi
nances over the long term,
as highlighted in Table 8, a marked ageing of
the population is expected. According to the
2009 projections by the European Commission
and the EUâs Economic Policy Committee,
starting from a level of 17% of GDP in 2010,
the Czech Republic is likely to experience a
signi
fi
cant increase in age-related public
expenditure amounting to 6.4 percentage points
of GDP in the years to 2060.
4
This re
fl
ects in
large part projected increases in pension and
healthcare expenditure. In the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report, the
Czech Republic is assessed to be at high risk
with regard to the sustainability of its public
fi
nances.
5
With regard to
fi
scal challenges, the Czech
Republic must bring its budget de
fi
cit below the
3% reference value by 2013 in line with the EDP
commitments. This requires the implementation
of comprehensive consolidation measures
particularly on the expenditure side of the budget.
At the same time, the Czech Republicâs
fi
scal
strategy should be supported by a suf
fi
ciently
stringent
fi
scal framework with strict adherence
to the nominal expenditure ceilings in order to
prevent slippages in public expenditure.
5.2.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
In the two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010, the Czech koruna
did not participate in ERM II, but traded under
a
fl
exible exchange rate regime (see Table 9a).
The koruna depreciated strongly against the
euro between mid-2008 and February 2009,
then partly recovered and, from mid-2009,
remained more stable. Over the period under
review, the Czech currency mostly traded
signi
fi
cantly weaker than its April 2008 average
exchange rate, which is used as a benchmark
for illustrative purposes in the absence of an
ERM II central rate. The maximum upward
deviation from this benchmark was 8.4%, while
the maximum downward deviation amounted to
17.7% (see Chart 5 and Table 9a).
Looking at these developments in more detail,
the strong depreciation of the Czech currency
took place against the background of an
unfavourable economic outlook for the Czech
Republic, investor concerns about external
vulnerabilities in the region and heightened
uncertainty in global
fi
nancial markets
following the collapse of Lehman Brothers
in September 2008. A gradual normalisation
of global
fi
nancial market conditions
subsequently contributed to a partial reversal
of the Czech korunaâs depreciation. The Czech
currency traded at 25.41 korunas per euro on
23 April 2010, i.e. 1.4% weaker than its average
level in April 2008.
Over the period under review, the exchange rate
of the Czech koruna against the euro showed
â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
4
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
5
77
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
mostly a high degree of volatility, as measured
by annualised standard deviations of daily
percentage changes. However, this volatility
has steadily decreased since January 2010.
Short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR were negative until the
end of 2008, amounting to -1.1 percentage points
in the three-month period ending in October 2008.
In 2009, the spread turned positive, on account
of the different monetary policy responses in the
Czech Republic and the euro area to the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. It remained at
a level of slightly above 1 percentage point
between June and December 2009 and decreased
to 0.8 percentage point in the three-month period
ending in March 2010 (see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, both bilaterally against
the euro and in effective terms, in March 2010
the real exchange rate of the Czech koruna stood
somewhat above its ten-year historical averages
(see Table 10). However, these measures should
be interpreted with caution, as in this period
the Czech Republic was subject to a process
of economic convergence, which complicates
any historical assessment of real exchange rate
developments.
As regards other external developments, the
Czech Republic reported a relatively large de
fi
cit
of 4.2% of GDP on average in the combined
current and capital account of its balance of
payments between 2000 and 2007. After peaking
at 6.2% of GDP in 2003, the de
fi
cit narrowed
rapidly, to 1.2% of GDP, in 2005 on account of
a signi
fi
cant improvement in the trade balance.
Subsequently, the rapidly increasing income
payments on direct investment liabilities led to
a widening of the current and capital account
de
fi
cit, to 2.6% of GDP in 2007. The current
and capital account balance then turned into
a slight surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2008 and
0.1% of GDP in 2009 owing to a decreasing
de
fi
cit in the income balance and a strong fall in
domestic demand, which led to lower imports.
In 2009 the increase in the goods surplus
almost entirely offset the decline in the services
surplus and the rise in the income de
fi
cit.
The shifts recorded in the balance of payments
of the Czech Republic over the past year have
been associated with a signi
fi
cant contraction
of capital
fl
ows, in the context of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. From a
fi
nancing
perspective, on average, large net in
fl
ows in
direct investment more than covered the entire
fi
nancing needs of the Czech economy until
2008, before dropping signi
fi
cantly in line with
the broadly balanced current account position.
At the same time, in 2009 portfolio investment
recorded net in
fl
ows, after having posted net
out
fl
ows between 2005 and 2008, while other
investment recorded net out
fl
ows. Against
this background, gross external debt increased
from 37.6% of GDP in 2000 to 51.8% in 2009.
At the same time the countryâs net international
investment position declined substantially from
-8.8% of GDP in 2000 to -41.3% in 2008 and
-45.2% in 2009. The Czech Republic is a small
open economy, although the ratio of foreign
trade in goods and services to GDP contracted
signi
fi
cantly, from 77.1% in 2008 to 70.8% in
2009 for exports and from 72.5% in 2008 to
64.9% in 2009 for imports (see Table 11).
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods
to the euro area constituted 67.1% of total
exports, whereas the corresponding
fi
gure for
imports was lower, at 63.5%. The share of euro
area countries in the Czech Republicâs inward
direct investment stood at 84.3% in 2009 and
in its portfolio investment liabilities at 54.1%
in 2008. The share of the Czech Republicâs
assets invested in the euro area amounted to
71.8% in the case of direct investment in 2009
and 70.7% for portfolio investment in 2008
(see Table 12).
5.2.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009
to March 2010 long-term interest rates in the
Czech Republic were 4.7% on average and thus
below the 6.0% reference value for the interest
rate convergence criterion (see Table 13).
78
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Between January 2001 and May 2003 Czech
long-term interest rates declined by around
350 basis points (see Chart 6a). Subsequently,
after a short period of increases up to
mid-2004, they resumed a downward trend
in August 2004, reaching a historically low
level of 3.3% in September 2005. Decreasing
in
fl
ationary pressures, the continued credibility
of monetary policy and investor con
fi
dence
in economic and
fi
nancial developments in
the Czech Republic were some of the factors
contributing to the declines. However, long-
term interest rates subsequently rose again,
becoming more signi
fi
cant during the
fi
nancial
turmoil of summer 2007, and reached a peak a
year later. During this period domestic in
fl
ation
pressures were only in part offset by the strong
appreciation of the exchange rate, and in
fl
ation
expectations were still on the upside. From 2006
to summer 2008
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka raised
its main policy rate from 2.25% to 3.75% in
an attempt to curb rising in
fl
ationary pressures.
Since summer 2008, the macroeconomic
environment has changed dramatically. The
effects of the international
fi
nancial and
economic crisis led to a sharp slowdown in
economic activity and, in late 2008, in
fl
ation
started to fall.
Consequently, long-term interest rates declined
until January 2009. In the
fi
rst half of 2009
the country was newly affected by the general
increase in global uncertainty and risk premia
in an environment of growing government debt
issuance across countries. While short-term
interest rates declined, owing mainly to rate
cuts by
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka, interest rates with
longer maturities followed an upward trend, with
persisting increased volatility. Between January
and June 2009, long-term interest rates increased
by around 125 basis points, reaching a peak of
5.5% in June. In the second half of 2009 investorsâ
interest in Czech government bonds outweighed
concerns about strong issuance of new debt as a
result of the growing budget de
fi
cit. Moreover,
positive assessments of the additional measures
taken by the government in October 2009 to
reduce the general government de
fi
cit in 2010
led to a decline in yields until December 2009.
Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers,
in an environment of declining demand and
falling in
fl
ation rates, the
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka
repeatedly eased monetary policy. Towards the
end of the reference period, long-term interest
rates increased slightly, re
fl
ecting renewed
concerns about future
fi
scal developments, but
declined again to stand at 4.0% in March 2010.
Broadly following developments in long-term
interest rates, the long-term interest rate
differential with the euro area was negative
between June 2002 and June 2003. It then rose
gradually to around 1% (see Chart 6b). As a
result of the declines in Czech long-term interest
rates from the second half of 2004, the long-term
interest rate differential also started to decline.
For most of 2006 and until the summer of 2007
the long-term interest rate differential was mostly
negative, mainly owing to positive sentiment
among market participants regarding the
countryâs
fi
nancial and economic prospects. The
impact of the
fi
nancial crisis led to a divergence in
the development of long-term government bond
rates in the Czech Republic vis-Ă -vis the euro
area in the second half of 2008. Consequently,
the differential widened to 1.5% in July 2009,
before narrowing at the beginning of 2010.
The capital market in the Czech Republic is
smaller and much less developed than in the euro
area (see Table 14). Although the value of the
outstanding amount of bank loans has increased
rapidly in recent years, it remained relatively
low at 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2009. In the
Czech Republic the majority of loans to the
private sector are in local currency. The corporate
sectorâs market-based indebtedness, as measured
by the value of outstanding
fi
xed-income
securities issued by corporations, increased to
23.4% of GDP at the end of 2009. Against a
background of a general rise in risk aversion, the
stock market capitalisation declined by less than a
third from 2007 and remains low compared with
the euro area (24.0% of GDP in 2009). Foreign-
owned banks play a dominant role in the Czech
banking sector. The international claims of euro
area banks in the country amounted to 6.2% of
total liabilities in 2009 (see also Table 12).
79
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May 2010
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
CZECH REPUBLIC
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
80
Chart 1
Price developments
80
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
80
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
81
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
81
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
81
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
82
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
82
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
83
(a) Levels
83
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
83
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
83
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
84
(a) Levels
84
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
84
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
84
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
85
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
85
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
86
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Czech koruna
86
Chart 5
Czech koruna: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
86
(a) Exchange rate over the
reference period
86
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
86
Table 10 Czech koruna: real exchange
rate developments
87
Table 11 External developments
87
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
87
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
88
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
88
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
88
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
88
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
88
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
80
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 1
Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
3.9 4.5 1.4 -0.1 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 6.3 0.6
HICP
excluding
unprocessed
food
and
energy
-
3.1 2.0 0.4 2.5 0.9 0.9 3.1 5.8 0.5
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
1.8 1.4 1.4 2.4 4.3 0.6
CPI
3.9 4.7 1.8 0.1 2.8 1.8 2.5 2.8 6.3 1.0
Private consumption de
fl
ator
3.1 3.9 1.2 -0.4 3.3 0.8 1.4 2.9 4.9 0.3
GDP de
fl
ator
1.5 4.9 2.8 0.9 4.5 -0.3 1.1 3.4 1.8 2.7
Producer prices
2)
4.9 2.8 -0.6 -0.4 5.5 3.1 1.5 4.1 4.5 -3.1
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
3.6 2.5 1.9 3.6 4.5 6.3 6.8 6.1 2.5 -4.2
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
60.9 62.6 63.3 66.4 68.6 69.3 70.4 73.4 74.0
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
47.9
49.8
56.7
52.9
53.7
56.9
60.1
61.4
70.0
-
Output gap
4)
-2.2 -1.8 -2.6 -2.3 -1.5 1.0 3.9 6.0 4.8 -2.2
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
8.7 8.0 7.3 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.2 5.3 4.4 6.7
Unit
labour
costs,
whole
economy
2.3 5.8 6.0 3.6 1.5 -0.3 1.1 2.9 5.1 2.4
Compensation
per
employee,
whole
economy
6.2 7.9 7.4 8.8 5.7 4.9 5.9 6.3 6.3 -0.8
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
3.8 2.0 1.3 5.0 4.1 5.2 4.8 3.4 1.2 -3.1
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
6.1 -2.6 -8.4 -0.4 1.3 -0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -3.7 1.4
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
0.4 4.7
11.8 0.8 1.2 6.2 5.1 3.0
12.5 -4.4
Money
supply
(M3)
-
-
- 7.7 6.8 11.3 14.1 16.9 12.9 0.3
Lending
from
banks
-
-
- 11.7 15.4 20.9 21.6 27.5 16.2 1.5
Stock
prices
(PX
50
Index)
-2.3 -17.5 16.8 43.1 56.6 42.7 7.9 14.2 -52.7 30.2
Residential property prices
13.5
9.5
13.1
11.4
-0.8
0.6
6.5
21.1
-
-
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
81
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-0.3
0.4
1.2
1.6
2.2
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.4
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
1.0
1.3
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1.4
2.0
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
1.6
2.0
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
1.5
2.2
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
82
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May 2010
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008
2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-2.7
-5.9
-5.7
Reference value
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
2.2
-0.5
0.0
General government gross debt
30.0
35.4
39.8
Reference value
60.0
60.0
60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
38.1 38.7 39.5 40.7 42.2 41.4 41.1 41.8 40.2 40.3
Current
revenue
37.9 38.5 39.4 40.5 41.8 41.1 40.5 41.0 39.4 38.8
Direct
taxes
8.3 8.8 9.1 9.6 9.6 9.2 9.2 9.4 8.0 7.5
Indirect
taxes
11.3 11.0 10.8 11.1 11.6 11.5 10.9 11.2 11.0 11.4
Social
security
contributions
14.2 14.2 14.9 15.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.2 15.4
Other
current
revenue
4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.5
Capital
revenue
0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4
Total expenditure
41.8 44.4 46.3 47.3 45.2 45.0 43.8 42.5 42.9 46.2
Current
expenditure
35.6 35.8 37.4 39.1 37.8 37.5 36.8 36.3 36.4 39.7
Compensation
of
employees
7.1 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.6 8.1
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
12.1 11.9 12.4 12.2 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.8 13.8
Interest
payable
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
current
expenditure
15.6 15.5 16.0 17.4 15.9 15.8 15.3 14.7 14.9 16.5
Capital
expenditure
6.3 8.6 8.9 8.3 7.3 7.5 6.9 6.2 6.5 6.4
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.7
-5.6 -6.8 -6.6 -3.0 -3.6 -2.6 -0.7 -2.7 -5.9
Primary
balance
-2.9 -4.6 -5.5 -5.5 -1.8 -2.4 -1.5 0.5 -1.6 -4.6
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
-0.1 -2.1 -2.9 -2.1 1.9 1.3 2.4 4.0 2.2 -0.5
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
83
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Convergence Report
May 2010
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-4
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
18.5 24.9 28.2 29.8 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.0 30.0 35.4
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
90.9 97.0 97.5 96.5 90.7 87.7 88.1 90.6 86.2 83.6
In
foreign
currencies
9.1 3.0 2.5 3.5 9.3 12.3 11.9 9.4 13.8 16.4
Euro
1)
2.2 1.6 1.8 3.5 9.3 12.3 11.4 8.8 13.1 15.1
Other
foreign
currencies
6.9 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.3
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
90.6 94.8 94.9 91.5 82.2 74.7 74.2 72.7 72.2 70.5
Average residual maturity
(in years)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term (up to and including one year)
45.5
33.3
28.6
23.1
16.3
11.3
10.0
8.2
6.3
6.4
Medium
and
long-term
(over
one
year)
54.5 66.7 71.4 76.9 83.7 88.7 90.0 91.8 93.7 93.6
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
84
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Chart 4
General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
total expenditure
total revenue
Source: ESCB.
Chart 3
General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
10
20
30
40
10
20
30
40
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-5
0
5
10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
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C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Change in general government debt
1)
3.0 7.6 4.5 2.8 2.8 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 4.9
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.7
-5.6
-6.8
-6.6
-3.0
-3.6
-2.6
-0.7
-2.7
-5.9
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-0.8 2.0
-2.3 -3.8 -0.1
-2.3 -0.7 1.5
-0.5
-1.0
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
-0.7 -0.8 -2.4 -3.0 0.6 -1.0 -0.5 2.6 -0.1 -0.5
Currency and deposits
-0.2
1.3
2.1
-0.2
1.1
3.9
-0.5
2.2
2.0
-1.5
Loans and securities other than shares
0.2
-0.4
0.7
-3.2
0.0
-1.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
Shares and other equity
-0.7
-3.4
-4.5
-0.3
-0.2
-3.6
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
Privatisations
-0.9 -2.5 -4.9 -0.9 -0.4 -3.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6
Equity injections
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other
0.2 -0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Other
fi
nancial assets
0.0
1.7
-0.7
0.7
-0.3
0.2
0.4
1.1
-1.3
1.5
Valuation changes of general government debt
0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
Other valuation effects
2)
0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Other changes in general government debt
3)
-0.2 2.9 0.2 -0.9 -0.7
-1.0 0.0 -1.0
-0.4
-0.4
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
20.6
21.8
31.1
35.7
42.7
54.8
61.4
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
17.5
17.0
17.2
18.1
19.8
22.0
23.4
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
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3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 5
Czech koruna: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Exchange rate over the reference period
(daily data; average of April 2008 = 100;
24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; average of April 2008 = 100;
April 2000-April 2010)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2008
2009
140
120
100
80
60
140
160
160
120
100
80
60
40
40
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: ECB.
Note: An upward (downward) movement of the line indicates an appreciation (depreciation) of the Czech koruna.
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
No
Exchange rate level in April 2008 in CZK/EUR
25.0638
Maximum upward deviation
1)
8.4
Maximum downward deviation
1)
-17.7
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its average level in April 2008 over the period
24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency was
stronger (weaker) than its exchange rate level in April 2008.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Czech koruna
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008
2009
2010
June Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec. Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
6.0 9.3
15.0
15.1 9.1 6.4 7.6 5.9
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
-0.7 -1.1 -0.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
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C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
Table 10
Czech koruna: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
18.1
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
18.2
Real effective exchange rate
1),
2)
19.4
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-4.8 -5.3 -5.5 -6.2 -5.7 -1.2 -2.1 -2.6 0.2 0.1
Current
account
balance
-4.8 -5.3 -5.5 -6.2 -5.2 -1.3 -2.4 -3.2 -0.6 -1.0
Goods
balance
-5.5 -5.0 -2.9 -2.7 -0.5 2.0 2.0 3.4 2.8 5.1
Services
balance
2.5 2.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 0.8
Income
balance
-2.4 -3.6 -4.7 -4.7 -5.6 -4.8 -5.2 -7.2 -4.7 -6.5
Current
transfers
balance
0.7 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4
Capital
account
balance
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
5.6
10.3 9.1 0.7 5.5 6.6 2.0 3.4 0.7 3.9
Direct
investment
balance
8.7 8.9
11.0 2.1 3.6 9.4 2.8 5.1 1.0 0.7
Portfolio
investment
balance
-3.1 1.5 -1.9 -1.4 1.9 -2.7 -0.8 -1.6 -0.2 3.2
Other
investment
balance
1.2 -2.9 5.2 5.3 0.9 -1.4 1.1 0.1 1.2 -1.1
Reserve
assets
-1.4 -2.9 -8.8 -0.5 -0.2 -3.1 -0.1 -0.4 -1.1 -1.7
Exports
of
goods
and
services
63.3 65.4 60.3 61.7 70.0 72.1 76.3 79.8 77.1 70.8
Imports
of
goods
and
services
66.3 67.9 62.3 63.9 69.9 68.9 72.9 75.0 72.5 64.9
Net international investment position
2)
-8.8 -10.4 -16.1 -20.5 -29.3 -28.0 -33.5 -40.0 -41.3 -45.2
Gross external debt
2)
37.6 35.1 34.4 36.4 38.4 41.8 41.4 44.5 50.0 51.8
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
70.9 70.8 69.3 71.4 71.3 68.4 67.3 66.0 65.8 67.1
Imports
of
goods
63.1 62.8 61.2 60.3 68.1 68.2 66.3 65.5 62.5 63.5
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
80.5 79.1 84.0 81.3 81.8 82.6 82.8 81.7 83.3 84.3
Outward direct investment
1)
46.0 34.3 64.1 68.3 58.5 59.2 67.1 70.6 99.0 71.8
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
29.6 30.5 44.7 53.1 59.2 51.0 52.8 54.1
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
42.4 52.3 67.8 69.5 69.9 68.0 72.0 70.7
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
85.9 86.5 85.7 87.3 87.2 85.5 85.7 85.3 84.9 84.7
Imports
of
goods
75.2 74.6 72.5 71.4 80.2 81.4 80.5 80.1 76.9 77.9
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
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4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
2002 2003
2001
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2002 2003
2005
2007
2009
2001
2004
2006
2008
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
4.0 4.3 4.3 4.0
4.7
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6
3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
25.4 23.7 34.3 34.3 21.0 18.5 18.0 19.6 17.3 23.4
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
19.6 14.4 14.5 17.6 23.5 30.2 29.6 36.1 22.5 24.0
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
-
-
28.6 29.9 31.2 35.4 40.1 46.6 51.4 52.7
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
7.1 8.1 6.0 5.6 5.1 6.3 6.8 6.2
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
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E S T O N I A
5.3 ESTONIA
5.3.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Estonia was -0.7%, i.e. well below
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability (see Table 1). On the basis of the
most recent information, the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation is expected to increase in
the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Estonia has been very volatile.
HICP in
fl
ation followed a broadly downward
trend until 2003, declining from 5.6% in 2001
to 1.4% in 2003. It then started to rise in 2004
as a result of hikes in administered prices, partly
related to EU accession, rising energy prices and
signs of overheating, such as mounting demand
pressures, sharp increases in wages and house
prices and widening current account de
fi
cits.
In 2008, despite a sharp slowdown in growth,
in
fl
ation continued to increase and peaked at
10.6%, re
fl
ecting the rise in global commodity
prices, tax harmonisation measures and the
lagging response of wages to the changing
economic environment. Owing to these
unsustainable macroeconomic developments
and the collapse of world trade, the Estonian
economy experienced a severe contraction.
In this context, in
fl
ation declined rapidly,
reaching 0.2% in 2009 (see Chart 1), as the
economy edged further into recession.
Economic and monetary policy choices have
played an important role in shaping in
fl
ation
developments over the past decade. The general
process of disin
fl
ation up to 2003 was related
most notably to the orientation of monetary
policy towards the achievement of price
stability, which is the primary objective of
monetary policy, as enshrined in the central
bank law. Estonia adopted a currency board
arrangement in 1992. The kroon was pegged
fi
rst to the Deutsche Mark and then later to the
euro. In June 2004 Estonia joined ERM II at
the previously established central rate and with
a unilateral commitment to maintain the currency
board arrangement. The process of disin
fl
ation
until 2003 was also supported by Estoniaâs
fi
scal policy and the liberalisation of product
markets. During the period 2005-08, however,
the monetary policy conditions in Estonia under
the currency board arrangement became too
expansionary for a catching-up economy with
a signi
fi
cantly higher growth potential than the
euro area and that was faced with overheating
pressures. Despite a relatively sound record
of
fi
scal balances, the countryâs overall policy
stance was not suf
fi
ciently tight to contain
demand pressures and support price stability.
This led to excessive credit growth and increases
in asset prices, notably in housing markets, with
the resulting imbalances being unwound in the
context of a severe recession.
In
fl
ation developments over the past ten years
should be viewed against the background of very
robust real GDP growth in most years, with clear
signs of increasing overheating up to 2008. This
has been followed more recently by a pronounced
turnaround in the economic cycle, owing to a
build-up and subsequent correction of signi
fi
cant
macroeconomic imbalances and vulnerabilities.
This turnaround was reinforced by the impact
of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis
(see Table 2). During the boom years from
2005 to 2007, strong domestic demand was
the main driving force behind economic
growth. Domestic demand itself was fuelled,
among other things, by rapid increases in real
disposable income, strong employment growth,
high rates of credit growth (supported, inter
alia, by low, and at times negative, real interest
rates), as well as overly optimistic expectations
about future income. From 2006 to 2008 the
rapid tightening of the labour market, partly
caused by labour out
fl
ows to other Member
States, contributed to rapid increases in wages,
consistently and often signi
fi
cantly above
labour productivity growth. In turn, this has led
to strong growth in unit labour costs and to a
signi
fi
cant deterioration of Estoniaâs competitive
position. The period during which signs of
domestic overheating emerged, coincided with
a period of rapidly rising global commodity
90
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May 2010
prices, which exacerbated the upward pressure
on prices. After years of strong economic
expansion, which proved unsustainable,
output growth started to decelerate in 2007
and turned negative in the
fi
rst quarter of
2008. The collapse in external demand and
the deterioration in
fi
nancing conditions in the
aftermath of the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis exacerbated an already severe recession,
with output declining by -14.1% in 2009. The
strong decline in external and domestic demand
resulted in signi
fi
cant labour market adjustments,
with the unemployment rate increasing from
5.5% in 2008 to 15.5% in the fourth quarter
of 2009. Developments in compensation per
employee reacted with a lag to the deteriorating
economic environment but, with falling labour
productivity, unit labour costs continued to rise
in 2008 and in the
fi
rst three quarters of 2009 in
annual terms. However, this process went into
reverse in the fourth quarter of 2009, when unit
labour costs decreased at a rate of 7.5% in annual
terms. Given the high degree of openness in the
Estonian economy, domestic price developments
were also heavily in
fl
uenced by changes in
import prices. Overall, import prices were
rather volatile during the period under review,
re
fl
ecting mainly developments in oil and food
prices and in the effective exchange rate. The
general pattern of in
fl
ation developments, in
particular the acceleration in in
fl
ation from
2004 to 2008, is also apparent from other
relevant indices, such as the HICP excluding
unprocessed food and energy. There was also
a sizeable correction of previous unsustainable
price trends in residential property prices which,
at the end of 2009, were around 50% lower than
their peak in the third quarter of 2007.
Looking at recent developments, the annual
rate of HICP in
fl
ation turned negative in
June 2009 and reached a low of -2.1% in
the period October-November 2009, before
increasing to stand at 1.4% in March 2010 (see
Table 3a). Energy prices have had a signi
fi
cant
upward impact on in
fl
ation since January 2010
but underlying price pressures continue to
have mainly a dampening effect. The current
in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed against
the background of a strong retrenchment in
domestic spending, although there are some
initial signs of stabilisation in external demand.
According to estimates from the Statistical
Of
fi
ce of Estonia, real GDP declined by 9.5% in
year on year terms in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The marked decrease in in
fl
ation in Estonia in
2009 also re
fl
ected the relatively strong impact
of lower global energy and food prices over
the same year. In contrast, changes in indirect
taxes have had a signi
fi
cant upward impact on
HICP in
fl
ation in past months, re
fl
ecting the rise
(of two percentage points) in the VAT rate to
20% in July 2009. The increase in excise duties
on alcohol, tobacco, motor fuel and electricity
since January 2010 has also contributed to
in
fl
ation in recent months. The contribution
of administered prices to total HICP in
fl
ation
is estimated to have been 0.8 percentage point
in 2009, with the share of administered prices
in Estoniaâs HICP basket amounting to 9.7%
in 2009 (and 9.8% in 2010).
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
most major international institutions range
from 0.7% to 1.3% for 2010 and from 1.1% to
2.0% for 2011 (see Table 3b). It is anticipated
that several temporary factors will contribute
to the maintenance of a relatively low level
of in
fl
ation in Estonia until the end of 2011.
More speci
fi
cally, the low in
fl
ation rates in
Estonia currently re
fl
ect â and will continue
to do so for some time â the ongoing severe
economic adjustment process and considerable
spare capacity. In addition, the current lack of
in
fl
ationary pressures in the Estonian economy
re
fl
ects the adjustment process necessary for an
economy with a
fi
xed exchange rate to restore the
earlier losses in its competitive position. Upside
risks to the in
fl
ation outlook are associated
mainly with higher than expected increases in
energy and food prices. Moreover, additional
fi
scal consolidation measures could lead to
potential further increases in indirect taxes
and excise duties. The main downside risks to
in
fl
ation in the near term relate to the weakness
in Estoniaâs domestic demand, the high level of
private sector indebtedness, which may require
a longer than expected period of deleveraging,
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ECB
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May 2010
E S T O N I A
and the possibility of a more pronounced
downward wage adjustment. Therefore, it cannot
be ruled out that the ongoing adjustment process
will translate into a more protracted period of
very low in
fl
ation.
Looking further ahead, once the adjustment
phase is over, maintaining low in
fl
ation rates
in Estonia will be very challenging, given the
limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy. The catching-up process is likely to
have a bearing on in
fl
ation over the coming
years, given that GDP per capita and price
levels are still lower in Estonia than in the
euro area (see Table 2). However, it is dif
fi
cult
to assess the exact size of the in
fl
ation effect
resulting from this catching-up process. Once
output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange
rate regime, the underlying real exchange rate
appreciation trend is likely to manifest itself in
higher in
fl
ation. In the context of this process of
ongoing convergence, it cannot be ruled out that
signi
fi
cant demand pressure may emerge again.
Given the currency board arrangement and
the limitations of alternative counter-cyclical
policy instruments, it may be dif
fi
cult to prevent
macroeconomic imbalances, including high
rates of in
fl
ation, from building up again. The
experience with the strong growth over the
past few years highlights the challenges that
the Estonian authorities face in achieving price
stability in the virtual absence of independent
monetary policy.
To sum up, although the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation in Estonia is currently
well below the reference value â mainly as
a result of temporary factors, including the
severe economic adjustment process â there are
concerns regarding the sustainability of in
fl
ation
convergence in Estonia.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Estonia requires the
conduct of economic policies geared towards
ensuring overall macroeconomic stability,
including sustainable price stability. Given
the limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy under the currency board arrangement,
it is imperative that other policy areas provide
the economy with the wherewithal to cope
with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid the
reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
More speci
fi
cally, the Estonian authorities
should aim to achieve a
fi
scal surplus in line
with their medium-term strategy and be ready
to take counter-cyclical measures if needed to
counter the risk of overheating. Furthermore, it is
important that
fi
scal consolidation measures on
the expenditure side of the budget are continued
as planned in 2010 and that further measures are
speci
fi
ed for 2011 and beyond with a view to
attaining the medium-term budgetary objective.
As regards structural reforms, although the
Estonian labour market is already relatively
fl
exible, developments in recent years point to
some rigidities in speci
fi
c areas. In particular,
regional differences in employment and
unemployment continue to persist, with skill
mismatches and labour shortages having been
responsible for excessive wage growth and the
associated erosion of competitiveness during
the boom years. In the current context of rising
unemployment, it is also essential to avoid a
signi
fi
cant increase in structural unemployment
or a decline in the participation rate. Moreover,
wage increases should respond more to changes
in labour productivity growth, labour market
conditions and developments in competitor
countries. The
fl
exibility of product markets
could also be enhanced, particularly in terms
of deregulation in the services sector (e.g. retail
and professional services). In addition, in order
to ensure sustainable output growth in the years
to come, it is important to develop policies that
support the reallocation of domestic resources
from the non-tradable to the tradable sectors
and from low wage-based to high value-added
activities. To this end, further investment in
education and the prioritisation of policies that
support R&D and innovation are likely to be
required. Progress in these areas could help to
raise Estoniaâs growth potential. Financial sector
policies should be geared towards preventing
excessive credit growth in the future. Given the
potential risks to
fi
nancial stability associated
with the very high levels of foreign currency
denominated loans in Estonia, the introduction
92
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
of concrete macro-prudential measures to reduce
the underlying vulnerabilities related to foreign
currency lending is desirable and warrants close
co-operation between home and host country
supervisory authorities. All these measures
would contribute to achieving an environment
conducive to sustainable price stability, as well
as promote competitiveness and employment
growth. In order to prevent the reoccurrence
of macroeconomic imbalances, which are then
followed by a period of dif
fi
cult adjustment, it
is crucial to strengthen policy tools to contain
booms in domestic demand that may be related
to further episodes of strong capital in
fl
ows
or overly optimistic expectations about future
growth prospects.
5.3.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Estonia is not subject to an EU Council decision
on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit. In the
reference year 2009 the general government
budget balance showed a de
fi
cit of 1.7% of GDP,
i.e. well below the reference value. The general
government gross debt-to-GDP ratio was 7.2%
of GDP, i.e. far below the 60% reference value
(see Table 4). Compared with the previous year,
the budget balance improved by 1 percentage
point and the government debt ratio increased
by 2.6 percentage points. In 2010 the de
fi
cit
ratio is forecast by the European Commission
to increase to 2.4% of GDP and the government
debt ratio is projected to rise to 9.6%. With
regard to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio
did not exceed the ratio of public investment to
GDP in 2008 or 2009.
Looking at developments in Estoniaâs budgetary
position over the period 2000 to 2009, the budget
was close to balance in 2000-01 and recorded
surpluses until 2007, before turning into de
fi
cit in
2008 (see Table 5 and Chart 2a). As is shown in
greater detail in Chart 2b, European Commission
estimates indicate that cyclical factors had a
positive impact on the budget balance before
2008. Non-cyclical factors contributed, albeit
to a limited extent, to a reduction of the surplus
between 2004 and 2007. The substantial
worsening of the government balance in 2008
re
fl
ected both the abrupt deterioration of the
macroeconomic environment and discretionary
fi
scal loosening. The latter re
fl
ected mainly
increases in the public wage bill, as well as in
pensions and other social bene
fi
ts. Temporary
and one-off factors between 2003 and 2007 were
relatively limited, inducing a somewhat larger
deterioration in Estoniaâs structural budgetary
position, which is measured as the cyclically
adjusted budget balance net of one-off and
temporary measures. The Estonian government
forcefully consolidated public
fi
nances in 2009
with a view to keeping its budget de
fi
cit below
the 3% reference value. It adopted several rounds
of consolidation measures which have provided
budgetary savings of around 9% of GDP for 2009,
of which approximately one-third are estimated
to be of a temporary nature. The measures
included cuts in current expenditure including
public wages and operational spending, as well as
increases in VAT, excise rates and unemployment
insurance premiums. Temporary measures
included a substantial increase in dividends from
state-owned companies, sales of land and, in late
2009, corporate income tax revenue received
as a one-off after the sale of the Estonian
telecom company.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2007 the
debt-to-GDP ratio declined cumulatively by
1.3 percentage points from an already very
low level of 5.1% of GDP (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). Primary surpluses and, to a much
smaller extent, the positive growth/interest
rate differential contributed favourably to the
decline in debt, while de
fi
cit-debt adjustments
had a debt-increasing effect (see Chart 3b).
The de
fi
cit-debt adjustments largely re
fl
ect
the governmentâs acquisition of securities
(see Table 7). From 2002 to 2007 surpluses
of the central government were used to acquire
liquid
fi
nancial assets such as international
government bonds, and Estonia built up
signi
fi
cant public
fi
nancial reserves. In 2008 the
government debt-to-GDP ratio started to increase
in a deteriorating macroeconomic environment,
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E S T O N I A
re
fl
ecting primarily the signi
fi
cant deterioration
in the primary balance. This was partially offset
by the positive contribution of the de
fi
cit-debt
adjustment factor, as the government used part
of its accumulated reserves to limit borrowing
pressures. Moreover, in 2009 a negative growth/
interest rate differential contributed to an
increase in the debt ratio to 7.2% of GDP.
As regards Estoniaâs general government debt
structure, it may be noted that the share of public
debt with a short-term maturity is low in Estonia
(see Table 6), and
fi
scal balances are therefore
insensitive to changes in interest rates. While
foreign currency-denominated debt accounts for
a high proportion of Estoniaâs small public debt
stock, it is almost exclusively denominated in
euro, the anchor currency of Estoniaâs currency
board arrangement. Fiscal balances are therefore
insensitive to changes in exchange rates other
than that of the kroon vis-Ă -vis the euro. At the
same time, the Estonian government has not
incurred contingent liabilities resulting from
government interventions to support
fi
nancial
institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
crisis (see the statistical section).
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that
the general government total expenditure
ratio, after declining slightly between 2000
and 2007 by around 1.3 percentage points,
increased signi
fi
cantly from 2008 onwards
to reach 45.4% of GDP in 2009. This level is
high in comparison with other countries with
a similar level of per capita income and even
compared with some of the highly advanced
economies. The initial decline mainly re
fl
ected
lower spending on the items âother current
expenditureâ, âcompensation of employeesâ
and âsocial bene
fi
tsâ. Capital expenditure has
been volatile, with an overall increasing trend.
For 2008-09, against the background of falling
GDP, the expenditure ratio rose by a cumulative
10.6 percentage points of GDP. In addition,
in 2008, expansionary
fi
scal policy strongly
reversed the declining trend recorded previously
under the current expenditure categories
mentioned above. Government revenue in
relation to GDP followed a broadly increasing
trend over the period of analysis, from 35.9% of
GDP in 2000 to 37.4% of GDP in 2007. After
a slight decline in the revenue ratio in 2008 of
0.3 percentage point of GDP, a strong increase
by around 6.5 percentage points was recorded in
2009 as a result of the hike in indirect taxation
adopted in the second half of the year, and the
growth in property and other non-tax revenue.
Looking ahead, Estoniaâs medium-term
fi
scal strategy, as presented in the updated
convergence programme for 2009-13 adopted
by the government in January 2010 (and thus
preceding the European Commissionâs forecasts
shown in Table 4), aims at a steady reduction of
the budget de
fi
cit and a return to a slight surplus
in 2013. For 2010 the Estonian government
is planning for a reduction in the de
fi
cit of
0.4 percentage point to 2.2% of GDP, while
more signi
fi
cant reductions are planned from
2012 onwards. According to this
fi
scal strategy,
until 2012 the structural balance will be below
the medium-term objective (speci
fi
ed in line
with the Stability and Growth Pact), which, as in
the previous programme update, is quanti
fi
ed in
the convergence programme as a slight surplus.
The total revenue-to-GDP ratio is expected to
increase to 45.7% in 2010 from its high level
in 2009 and then to steadily decline to 39.2%
of GDP by 2013. This trend re
fl
ects both a
base effect and the reversal of some temporary
revenue measures, such as the transfer of
pension contributions back to the second
pension pillar, as well as lower non-tax revenue.
At the same time, compared with 2009, total
expenditure is projected to decline signi
fi
cantly
as a share of GDP (by 8.6 percentage points)
to 39% of GDP in 2013, mainly on account
of a signi
fi
cant decrease in compensation of
employees and intermediate consumption,
as well as lower social transfers and other
spending. Additional consolidation measures
required beyond 2010 will be laid out in the
national
fi
scal strategy update to be approved in
May 2010.
The government gross debt-to-GDP
ratio is expected to increase over the programme
horizon, from 7.8% of GDP in 2009 to 14.3% in
2013, owing mainly to primary de
fi
cits and, to a
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ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
lesser extent, to a negative growth/interest rate
differential in the
fi
rst part of the forecasting
period. Starting in 2011, the de
fi
cit-debt
adjustment factor will contribute to an increase
in the debt ratio.
Turning to factors impacting on Estoniaâs public
fi
nances over the long term, as indicated in
Table 8, the country is facing a marked increase
in the old age dependency ratio. Nevertheless,
according to the 2009 projections of the
European Commission and the EUâs Economic
Policy Committee, starting from a level of
14.8% of GDP in 2010, Estonia is likely to
experience a small decline in age-related public
expenditure of 0.1 percentage point of GDP
between 2010 and 2060.
6
This re
fl
ects in part
the implementation of pension reforms in the
1990s, which established a second, privately
funded pension pillar. However, continued
vigilance is required, as actual demographic,
economic and
fi
nancial developments may turn
out to be less favourable than assumed in the
projections. In the European Commissionâs
2009 Sustainability Report, Estonia is assessed
to be at low risk with regard to the sustainability
of its public
fi
nances.
7
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, it is important that
fi
scal consolidation measures on the expenditure
side of the budget continue as planned in 2010
and that further measures are speci
fi
ed for 2011
and beyond with a view to reaching the medium-
term budgetary objective. At the same time, the
quality of public
fi
nances should be improved by
strengthening the role of productivity-enhancing
public investment. Estoniaâs
fi
scal policy
strategy should be supported by an improved
and suf
fi
ciently strict
fi
scal framework, focused
on a medium-term horizon as a basis for annual
budgeting and reducing reliance on temporary
fi
scal measures.
5.3.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
The Estonian kroon has been participating in
ERM II with effect from 28 June 2004, i.e. for
the entire two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010 (see Table 9a).
At the time of ERM II entry, Estonia joined
the exchange rate mechanism with its existing
currency board arrangement in place as
a unilateral commitment, thus placing no
additional obligation on the ECB. The central
rate for the Estonian currency in ERM II was
set at 15.6466 kroons per euro, with a standard
fl
uctuation band of Âą15%. The agreement
on participation in ERM II was based on
a number of policy commitments by the
Estonian authorities, relating, inter alia, to
pursuing sound
fi
scal policies, promoting wage
moderation, containing credit growth, reducing
the current account de
fi
cit and implementing
further structural reforms. Over the period under
review, the kroon continued to be stable and
did not exhibit any deviation from its central
rate against the euro in ERM II, re
fl
ecting the
unchanged Estonian exchange rate policy under
the currency board regime (see Chart 5 and
Table 9a). Moreover, within ERM II, Estonia has
not devalued its currencyâs central rate against
the euro on its own initiative. As implied by
the currency board regime, in the period under
review, Eesti Pank has continued to be regularly
active in the foreign exchange market. Overall,
its purchases and sales of foreign currency
during the two-year reference period resulted
in a net sale. On 27 February 2009 Sveriges
Riksbank and Eesti Pank announced that they
had entered into a precautionary arrangement
that amounted to 10 billion Swedish kronor in
exchange for Estonian kroons. This agreement
was a preventive measure to secure
fi
nancial
stability and to promote con
fi
dence on the
fi
nancial markets. As it helped reduce risks
related to
fi
nancial vulnerabilities, it might
also have contributed to reducing the risk of
exchange rate pressures. The agreement had
expired by the end of 2009.
Short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR were relatively wide until
December 2008, standing at around 3 percentage
points. Thereafter, the spread increased to even
â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
6
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
7
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E S T O N I A
higher levels of around 5.2 percentage points in
mid-2009 on account of the severe contraction
in Estoniaâs economy, which was also re
fl
ected
in the downgrading of the Estonian sovereign
credit ratings on several occasions by two rating
agencies as well as the global
fi
nancial and
economic crisis. The interest rate differentials
fell again from September 2009, with the support
of some âconvergence tradingâ, and stood at
1.6 percentage points in the three-month period
ending in March 2010 (see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Estonian kroon, both
in effective terms and bilaterally against the
euro, stood somewhat above the corresponding
ten-year average levels (see Table 10). However,
these measures should be interpreted with
caution, as in this period Estonia was subject
to a process of economic convergence, which
complicates any historical assessment of real
exchange rate developments.
As regards other external developments, Estonia
reported a very large average de
fi
cit of 10%
of GDP in the combined current and capital
account of its balance of payments between
2000 and 2008. While high current account
de
fi
cits may have been partly associated with
the catching-up process of an economy like
Estoniaâs, de
fi
cits of such magnitude have raised
concerns about their sustainability. Indeed
correcting these large de
fi
cits was a key feature
of the necessary adjustment process that Estonia
underwent following the overheating period.
After a strong fall in domestic demand, which
led to lower imports, the de
fi
cit decreased from
16.8% of GDP in 2007 to 8.4% in 2008 and
turned into a surplus of 7.4% of GDP in 2009.
This shift in the current and capital account
balance re
fl
ected a sharp reduction in the goods
de
fi
cit, a substantial decrease in the income
de
fi
cit and an increase in the services surplus.
The shifts recorded in the balance of payments
of Estonia over the past two years have been
associated with a sharp reversal of capital
fl
ows,
against the background of the global
fi
nancial
and economic crisis. Between 2006 and 2008
the contribution of direct investment to the
fi
nancing of Estoniaâs external de
fi
cit amounted
to around 4% of GDP. In 2009, in conjunction
with a shift in the current and capital account
de
fi
cit to surplus, portfolio investment recorded
net out
fl
ows. Gross external debt has increased
sharply over the last decade, climbing from
52.5% of GDP in 2000 to 118.5% and 126.8%
in 2008 and 2009, respectively. At the same
time Estoniaâs net international investment
position deteriorated substantially, from -48.2%
of GDP in 2000 to -75.3% of GDP in 2008 and
further, to -81.8% of GDP, in 2009. The high
level of this position and its rapid deterioration
underlines the importance of policies supporting
external sustainability. Estonia is a small, open
economy, although the ratio of foreign trade
in goods and services to GDP has contracted
signi
fi
cantly, from 75.1% in 2008 to 70.4%
in 2009 for exports and from 79.3% in 2008
to 64.5% in 2009 for imports (see Table 11).
With the normalisation of global economic
and
fi
nancial market conditions, reaching and
maintaining a sustainable long-term external
position will depend on implementation of the
appropriate domestic economic policies.
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods to
the euro area constituted 34.3% of total exports,
whereas the corresponding
fi
gure for imports
was higher at 38.4%. The share of euro area
countries in Estoniaâs inward direct investment
stood at 41.7% in 2009 and in its portfolio
investment liabilities at 40.3% in 2008. The
share of Estoniaâs assets invested in the euro
area amounted to 23.8% in the case of direct
investment in 2009 and 70.7% for portfolio
investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
With regard to the ful
fi
lment of the commitments
made by the Estonian authorities upon ERM II
entry, the following observations can be made.
Although Estonia maintained a low
fi
scal de
fi
cit,
fi
scal performance during the boom years
after ERM II entry was not suf
fi
ciently tight
to contribute to containing the emergence of
signi
fi
cant macroeconomic imbalances. In 2009,
however, when the economy experienced a severe
contraction, comprehensive
fi
scal consolidation
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May 2010
measures to contain the deterioration of the
budget balance were implemented. Efforts to
reduce wage growth were largely ineffective
after ERM II entry. An adjustment of the
unsustainable dynamics in wages materialised
only in 2009. After ERM II entry, reserve and
prudential requirements were tightened to help
contain rapid credit growth. Nonetheless, credit
growth was very high until 2008, when an
adjustment started to take place following the
severe deterioration in the economic outlook in
Estonia and the reassessment of risks prompted
by the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis.
However, borrowing in foreign currency
(almost exclusively euro) has continued in recent
years, increasing the unhedged exposure of
domestic agents to exchange rate risk. As regards
structural reforms, Estonia has implemented
a number of structural reforms to enhance the
fl
exibility of the labour market and to prepare
for the impact of population ageing. However,
it is important that measures to restore the
competitiveness of the economy and support the
reallocation of resources from the non-tradable to
the tradable sector continue to be implemented.
5.3.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
The Estonian
fi
nancial system is characterised
by the absence of a well-developed market
for long-term debt securities denominated in
Estonian kroons, which re
fl
ects the low level
of government debt, and a very widespread use
of the euro. In this context, it is not possible to
identify an indicator that would be comparable
to or could replace long-term government
bond yields for the purpose of convergence
assessment.
It should be recalled that, according to the
Treaty, the purpose of the long-term interest
rate convergence criterion is to determine
âthe durability of convergence achieved by a
Member State and to assess participation in the
exchange rate mechanismâ. A small long-term
interest rate differential vis-Ă -vis the euro area
would suggest that markets expect sustained
convergence of the respective in
fl
ation rates,
assuming the current level of the exchange
rate is maintained in the future. However, the
characteristics of the Estonian
fi
nancial system
do not allow for a precise assessment in this
respect.
In the absence of harmonised long-term interest
rates for Estonia, several other indicators may
help in assessing the durability of convergence.
In particular, various
fi
nancial market indicators
can be considered, such as spreads of spot and
forward money market interest rates vis Ă -vis
the euro area, as well as interest rates on
MFI loans to households and non-
fi
nancial
corporations with long-term initial
fi
xation or
maturities. Moreover, sovereign credit ratings
and an analysis of underlying macroeconomic
variables, such as developments in the balance
of payments or
fi
scal debt, provide additional
information on the determinants of long-term
interest rates and help gauge some counterfactual
ranges of long-term interest rates for Estonia.
As each of these individual variables has its
limitations as an indicator of the durability of
convergence achieved, none should be seen
as a direct substitute for long-term interest
rates. Rather, the information contained in the
individual indicators can be combined in the
context of a broad-based analysis to inform the
assessment of the sustainability of convergence
in a qualitative manner.
As regards available indicators, since mid-2007
the perception of quite considerable external
imbalances in Estonia and increased risk
aversion among foreign investors have led to a
rapid increase in money market spreads vis Ă -vis
the euro area, which stood at around 250 basis
points by the end of 2007 (see Chart 6).
Following the intensi
fi
cation of the
fi
nancial
crisis in autumn 2008, market rates became
increasingly detached from euro area money
markets. Spreads vis-Ă -vis the euro area had
increased to 500 basis points by the end of 2008,
while Estonian sovereign credit ratings were
downgraded by a credit rating agency. From the
beginning of 2009, money market rates followed
a downward path, partly re
fl
ecting developments
in euro area money markets. However, renewed
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E S T O N I A
pressures in
fi
nancial markets, driven by
speculation about a possible spillover of the
Latvian crisis to the Estonian economy, led
the money market spreads vis-Ă -vis euro area
rates to widen again, reaching around 560 basis
points at the end of March 2009. During the
same period, Estonian sovereign credit ratings
were downgraded further.
Since March 2009
fi
nancial market indicators
for Estonia have suggested some easing of
market pressures against the backdrop of a
general improvement in global market sentiment.
However, money market spreads relative to
the euro area remained elevated at around
500 basis points until late 2009. This general
trend of improving market conditions was
temporarily interrupted in mid-2009 in response
to renewed speculation about the possible
spillover of tensions from the Latvian economy.
From November 2009 money market spreads
narrowed signi
fi
cantly, re
fl
ecting changing
market expectations about Estoniaâs prospects
of adopting the euro, more positive news
concerning
fi
scal developments and a decline in
global risk aversion. At the end of the reference
period in April 2010 money market spreads stood
at around 110 basis points. Three credit rating
agencies revised their outlook from negative
to stable at the beginning of 2010, all having
assessed the downside risks for Estonia to have
moderated. In April 2010, Estonian sovereign
credit ratings compared favourably with those
for Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and
Romania, while they were lower than those for
Poland and the Czech Republic (according to
two out of three major credit ratings agencies), as
well as for Sweden, with the latter two countries
being the only ones covered in this report to ful
fi
l
the long-term interest rate criterion. A similar
conclusion can be drawn when looking at the
12-month averages of money market spreads.
As shown in Table 13, in April 2010 they were
signi
fi
cantly above the corresponding premia for
the Czech Republic and Sweden.
During the reference period long-term MFI
interest rates for loans to the private sector
denominated in Estonian kroons were
characterised by very low volumes and strong
volatility, re
fl
ecting both the uncertain economic
climate and increased concerns by
fi
nancial
intermediaries regarding the creditworthiness of
their customers. The interest rate differential with
respect to corresponding loans in the euro area
and in the other two countries with the lowest
12-month average in
fl
ation rate grew during this
period (see Charts 7a and 7b). However, these
interest rates are not directly comparable as they
comprise different underlying credit risks.
Longer-term sustainability can also be assessed
by analysing country differences in
fi
scal,
external and money market conditions, as well
as country differences in price developments
and their international openness. Such indirect
inference leads to mixed results in terms of
Estonia ful
fi
lling this convergence criterion. On
the one hand, the deterioration in macroeconomic
conditions, magni
fi
ed by the impact of the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis, has had
an adverse impact on the market assessment of
the sustainability of the convergence process
for most of the central and eastern European
countries. This seems to be also the case for
Estonia, which shares the uncertainties regarding
the effects of the catching-up process on the
sustainability of price stability and of the long-
term external positions. On the other hand, the
more sound record of the Estonian government
debt position with respect to other countries,
despite recent deterioration, plays an important
role in the market assessment.
All in all, developments in
fi
nancial markets
over the reference period from April 2009
to March 2010 suggest a mixed assessment.
A number of indicators show that market
participants had signi
fi
cant concerns regarding
the sustainability of convergence in Estonia
although it is dif
fi
cult to disentangle country-
speci
fi
c concerns from global factors. Indeed,
these concerns were especially pronounced during
the peak of the global crisis. Estonian
fi
nancial
markets were generally driven by concerns about
the robustness of the Estonian economy, as the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis exacerbated
the ongoing process of economic adjustment
98
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
brought about by the existence of internal and
external imbalances. From late 2009, a decline
in global risk aversion,
fi
scal developments and
perceptions among market participants about
Estoniaâs prospects of adopting the euro, all
contributed to an easing in market pressures.
Regarding
fi
nancial integration developments,
the Estonian capital market is smaller and
much less developed than that of the euro area.
Market-based credit to the corporate sector, as
measured by the value of outstanding
fi
xed-
income securities issued by
fi
nancial and
non-
fi
nancial corporations, was 6.5% of
GDP at the end of 2009. Owing to the deep
economic recession, in 2009 the bond market
fell to 2003 levels. In addition, the stock
market capitalisation halved relative to 2007,
but recovered with respect to 2008, reaching
13.5% of GDP in 2009. The Estonian
fi
nancial
sector is heavily bank-based. Bank credit to
non-government residents amounted to 107.6%
of GDP in 2009, with the majority of loans to
the private sector being in foreign currency.
Nordic European banking groups dominate the
banking sector, while the international claims of
euro area banks in the country have been broadly
stable over time, reaching 12.0% in 2009.
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E S T O N I A
ESTONIA
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
1 0 0
Chart 1
Price developments
1 0 0
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
1 0 0
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
1 0 1
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
1 0 1
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
1 0 1
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
1 0 2
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
1 0 2
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
1 0 3
(a) Levels
1 0 3
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
1 0 3
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
1 0 3
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
1 0 4
(a) Levels
1 0 4
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
1 0 4
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
1 0 4
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
1 0 5
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
1 0 5
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
1 0 6
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Estonian kroon
1 0 6
Chart 5
Estonian kroon: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
1 0 6
(a) Deviation from ERM II
central rate
1 0 6
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
1 0 6
Table 10 Estonian kroon: real exchange
rate
developments
107
Table 11 External developments
1 0 7
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
1 0 7
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 6
Three-month money
market spreads vis-Ă -vis
three-month EURIBOR
1 0 8
Table 13 Spreads of three-month
money market rates
vis-Ă -vis three-month
EURIBOR in selected
EU countries
1 0 8
Chart 7
(a) Interest rates in local
currency of long-term
loans to non-
fi
nancial
corporations in Estonia
and selected EU countries
1 0 9
(b) Interest rates in local
currency of long-term
loans to households for
house purchase
in Estonia and selected
EU countries
1 0 9
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
1 0 9
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
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ECB
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Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
-1.9
-1.0
-0.3
1.4
-0.7
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
Chart 1
Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP 3.9
5.6
3.6
1.4
3.0
4.1
4.4
6.7
10.6
0.2
HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy
3.5
4.6
2.6
1.8
2.5
2.6
3.5
6.5
8.8
1.2
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
2.3
3.6
4.3
6.5
8.7
-1.4
CPI 4.0
5.8
3.6
1.3
3.0
4.1
4.4
6.6
10.4
-0.1
Private consumption de
fl
ator
3.6
6.2
2.7
2.0
2.0
3.6
5.3
7.4
9.2
-0.8
GDP de
fl
ator
4.5
5.3
3.3
4.2
3.6
5.5
7.6
10.2
6.7
-0.6
Producer prices
2)
4.9
4.4
0.4
0.2
3.4
1.7
4.3
9.6
9.6
-0.3
Related indicators
Real GDP growth
10.0
7.5
7.9
7.6
7.2
9.4
10.0
7.2
-3.6
-14.1
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro area = 100)
40.0
41.4
44.9
49.3
52.5
56.2
59.6
63.0
62.1
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
57.1
60.7
60.5
60.2
61.1
63.4
67.2
71.9
75.0
-
Output gap
4)
-1.0
0.2
1.1
1.2
1.5
4.3
8.3
11.0
4.5
-10.1
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
13.6
12.6
10.3
10.0
9.7
7.9
5.9
4.7
5.5
13.8
Unit labour costs, whole economy
2.5
2.9
2.4
5.3
4.6
3.4
9.4
17.3
14.1
1.7
Compensation per employee, whole economy
14.5
9.6
9.1
11.7
12.2
10.9
14.1
24.8
9.8
-3.0
Labour productivity, whole economy
11.6
6.6
6.6
6.1
7.3
7.3
4.3
6.4
-3.8
-4.6
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
5.8
2.0
-0.1
-0.2
1.5
3.3
5.1
3.2
6.9
-4.7
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
-4.0
1.1
0.9
4.3
1.5
-0.4
-0.1
0.7
0.9
1.8
Money supply (M3)
25.4
24.5
12.1
8.8
16.7
40.2
27.4
13.5
4.8
0.3
Lending from banks
28.5
19.4
22.2
40.0
34.4
34.8
43.8
33.9
7.6
-4.6
Stock prices (OMX Tallinn index)
10.1
4.7
46.8
34.4
57.1
48.0
28.9
-13.3
-63.0
47.2
Residential property prices
1.6
34.2
29.5
12.9
27.8
30.9
51.8
10.1
-12.3
-39.1
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
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May 2010
E S T O N I A
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
-2.1
-1.9
-1.0
-0.3
1.4
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-1.2
-1.5
-0.5
1.7
4.6
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-1.5
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
0.7
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
1.3
2.0
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1)
-
-
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
0.8
1.1
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
0.7
1.9
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
1) Estonia is not an OECD member.
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May 2010
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008
2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-2.7
-1.7
-2.4
Reference value
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
2.6
3.1
3.2
General government gross debt
4.6
7.2
9.6
Reference value
60.0
60.0
60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total revenue
35.9
34.7
36.0
36.5
35.6
35.2
36.5
37.4
37.1
43.6
Current revenue
35.5
34.6
35.7
36.1
35.3
34.9
35.7
36.6
36.7
42.1
Direct taxes
7.7
7.2
7.5
8.0
7.9
7.0
7.2
7.7
7.9
7.6
Indirect taxes
12.3
12.3
12.5
12.1
12.1
13.1
13.3
13.5
12.1
15.0
Social security contributions
11.0
10.7
11.0
10.7
10.4
10.4
10.3
10.9
11.9
13.4
Other current revenue
4.5
4.3
4.7
5.2
4.9
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.7
6.1
Capital revenue
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.4
1.5
Total expenditure
36.1
34.8
35.8
34.8
34.0
33.6
34.0
34.8
39.9
45.4
Current expenditure
32.0
30.3
30.1
30.1
30.2
29.6
28.9
28.9
33.4
40.0
Compensation of employees
10.8
10.2
10.3
10.2
10.2
9.9
9.4
9.8
11.4
12.9
Social bene
fi
ts other than in kind
9.5
9.1
8.9
8.8
9.2
8.9
8.8
8.8
10.6
14.1
Interest payable
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
of which: impact of swaps and FRAs
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other current expenditure
11.5
10.9
10.7
10.9
10.6
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.1
12.6
Capital expenditure
4.2
4.5
5.7
4.7
3.8
4.0
5.1
5.9
6.5
5.4
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
2.6
-2.7
-1.7
Primary balance
0.0
0.1
0.5
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.7
2.8
-2.5
-1.4
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment expenditure
3.5
4.0
5.6
6.0
5.4
5.6
7.2
7.8
2.6
3.1
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
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Convergence Report
May 2010
E S T O N I A
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
2000
-4
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
2002
2004
2006
2008
levels
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total debt
(as a percentage of GDP)
5.1
4.8
5.7
5.6
5.0
4.6
4.5
3.8
4.6
7.2
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In domestic currency
34.2
42.8
7.7
13.2
14.7
18.8
20.4
22.1
18.2
14.5
In foreign currencies
65.8
57.2
92.3
86.8
85.3
81.2
79.6
77.9
81.8
85.5
Euro
1)
65.8
57.2
92.3
86.8
85.3
81.2
79.6
77.9
81.8
85.5
Other foreign currencies
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Domestic ownership
(% of total)
34.2
42.8
51.1
51.0
47.7
51.9
49.0
63.1
63.3
53.8
Average residual maturity
(in years)
7.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
7.0
7.0
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term (up to and including one year)
2.3
2.8
3.6
3.9
0.6
1.8
1.0
2.2
1.2
1.5
Medium and long-term (over one year)
97.7
97.2
96.4
96.1
99.4
98.2
99.0
97.8
98.8
98.5
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
104
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Convergence Report
May 2010
Chart 3
General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
2
4
6
8
2
4
6
8
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
levels
-4
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
2002
2004
2006
2008
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
Chart 4
General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
total expenditure
total revenue
Source: ESCB.
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May 2010
E S T O N I A
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Change in general government debt
1)
-0.5
0.3
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.0
0.9
1.8
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
2.6
-2.7
-1.7
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-0.8
0.2
1.7
2.2
1.6
1.8
3.1
2.6
-1.8
0.1
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
0.3
1.1
2.4
3.6
2.5
2.8
3.8
2.9
-1.7
1.6
Currency and deposits
0.0
-0.3
1.0
-0.3
1.2
1.2
0.5
-0.2
0.1
2.5
Loans and securities other than shares
0.3
2.6
2.6
3.9
0.2
0.7
2.6
1.4
-2.1
-0.6
Shares and other equity
0.0
-1.4
-1.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.8
0.0
-1.8
Privatisations 0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
Equity injections
0.0
-1.5
-1.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Other 0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-2.0
Other
fi
nancial assets
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.8
0.2
1.5
Valuation changes of general government debt
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other valuation effects
2)
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other changes in general government debt
3)
-1.0
-0.9
-0.7
-1.4
-0.9
-1.0
-0.7
-0.3
-0.1
-1.5
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
25.2
25.0
29.2
34.4
39.0
47.2
55.6
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
14.9
14.8
14.6
14.6
14.4
14.7
14.7
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
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3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
Yes
Membership since
28 June 2004
ERM II central rate in EEK/EUR
15.6466
ERM II
fl
uctuation band
+/-15%
Devaluation of bilateral central rate on countryâs own initiative
No
Maximum upward deviation
1)
0.0
Maximum downward deviation
1)
0.0
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations from ERM II central rate over the period 24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business
frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency is on the strong (weak) side of the band.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Estonian kroon
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008
2009
2010
June
Sep.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sep.
Dec.
Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
1.5
1.4
3.0
5.1
5.0
5.0
3.7
1.6
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
Chart 5
Estonian kroon: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Deviation from ERM II central rate
(daily data; percentage deviation; 24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; central rate = 100; April 2000-April 2010)
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2008
2009
104
102
100
98
96
104
102
100
98
96
94
94
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) deviation from the central rate implies that the currency is on the strong (weak) side of the band. For the
Estonian kroon, the
fl
uctuation band is Âą15%.
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May 2010
E S T O N I A
Table 10
Estonian kroon: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
11.4
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
2.4
Real effective exchange rate
1), 2)
11.6
Source: ECB.
Notes: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-4.9
-4.9
-10.1
-10.6
-10.6
-9.2
-14.7
-16.8
-8.4
7.4
Current account balance
-5.4
-5.2
-10.6
-11.3
-11.3
-10.0
-16.9
-17.8
-9.4
4.6
Goods balance
-13.9
-12.4
-15.2
-15.8
-16.2
-13.9
-18.1
-17.8
-11.7
-3.7
Services balance
10.6
10.4
8.1
8.4
9.2
7.5
6.0
6.1
7.4
9.6
Income balance
-3.6
-4.5
-4.4
-5.3
-5.3
-4.1
-5.2
-6.8
-6.3
-2.9
Current transfers balance
1.5
1.4
0.9
1.4
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.7
1.2
1.6
Capital account balance
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
2.2
1.0
1.0
2.8
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
7.3
4.8
4.2
9.6
11.7
-0.2
-3.8
2.4
6.8
-9.4
Direct investment balance
5.8
5.4
2.1
7.9
5.7
15.7
4.2
4.6
3.7
1.1
Portfolio investment balance
1.5
-0.6
2.0
1.8
6.0
-15.8
-8.0
-2.3
3.1
-10.5
Other investment balance
0.0
-0.4
6.1
3.3
2.5
11.2
21.6
14.2
4.9
2.7
Reserve assets
-2.4
0.7
-0.8
-1.7
-2.3
-2.8
-3.6
-0.6
-3.1
0.0
Exports of goods and services
84.4
79.7
70.8
69.0
72.9
80.1
79.7
72.2
75.1
70.4
Imports of goods and services
87.7
81.8
77.8
76.4
79.9
86.5
91.8
83.9
79.3
64.5
Net international investment position
2)
-48.2
-48.3
-54.1
-65.9
-86.5
-85.2
-74.6
-74.3
-75.3
-81.8
Gross external debt
2)
52.5
53.2
57.7
64.3
77.0
86.5
97.5
111.0
118.5
126.8
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports of goods
48.4
47.8
43.6
45.3
39.8
40.8
30.9
31.5
31.8
34.3
Imports of goods
48.2
42.8
43.9
40.7
44.4
46.3
42.9
41.5
40.2
38.4
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
37.4
34.9
36.1
38.6
34.2
34.6
39.1
41.2
40.0
41.7
Outward direct investment
1)
22.1
16.0
18.9
19.7
19.7
17.4
16.8
17.4
21.0
23.8
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
40.2
52.0
46.2
51.2
58.3
54.5
49.9
40.3
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
49.2
79.6
68.0
57.5
55.3
57.1
59.8
70.7
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports of goods
88.1
81.3
81.7
82.4
80.4
78.1
65.6
70.2
70.0
69.4
Imports of goods
70.6
66.4
68.9
65.0
73.7
76.3
74.4
78.6
79.7
79.7
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
108
ECB
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May 2010
Table 13
Spreads of three-month money market rates vis-Ă -vis three-month EURIBOR
in selected EU countries
(period averages; basis points)
2007
2008
2009
2010
12-month
average
1)
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Short-term interest rates spreads vs. euro area
Estonia
59
204
469
208
145
122
115
351
Czech Republic
-118
-60
97
87
86
79
78
98
Sweden
-39
10
-30
-20
-18
-15
-12
-23
Other countries
2)
221
360
722
460
383
344
311
605
Sources: Datastream and ECB calculations.
Notes: The Czech Republic and Sweden are shown in the table as they are the only two countries with long-term interest rates below the
reference value in the period under consideration. Average data for the period April 2010 are up to 23 April 2010.
1) 12-month moving average up to 23 April 2010.
2) Other countries: Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Romania; non-weighted average.
4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 6
Three-month money market spreads
vis-Ă -vis three-month EURIBOR
(daily data; twelve-month moving averages; basis points)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan.
July
Jan.
July
Jan.
July
Jan.
2007
2008
2009
2010
spreads between 3-month TALIBOR and
3-month EURIBOR
12-month moving average of spreads between
3-month TALIBOR and 3-month EURIBOR
Sources: Datastream and ECB calculations.
109
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May 2010
E S T O N I A
Chart 7a
Interest rates in local currency
of long-term loans to non-financial corporations
in Estonia and selected EU countries
(percentage points)
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007
2008
2009
12-month
moving average
1)
Estonia
Belgium
Portugal
euro area
Sources: ECB and ECB calculations.
Notes: The interest rates are an aggregation of bank interest
rates on new loans to non-
fi
nancial corporations with an initial
rate
fi
xation period of over one and up to
fi
ve years and over
fi
ve years, weighted with the 12-month moving average of new
loan volumes for each category. These interest rates are not
directly comparable across countries as they comprise different
underlying credit risks. Belgium and Portugal are shown as they
are the other two âbest-performingâ EU Member States in terms of
price stability, as de
fi
ned in the Treaty (see Box 1 in Chapter 2).
1) 12-month moving average calculated from March 2009 to
February 2010.
Chart 7b
Interest rates in local currency
of long-term loans to households for house
purchase in Estonia and selected EU countries
(percentage points)
2007
2008
2009
12-month
moving average
1)
Estonia
Belgium
Portugal
euro area
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sources: ECB and ECB calculations.
Notes: The interest rates are an aggregation of bank interest
rates on new loans to households for house purchase with
an initial rate
fi
xation period of over one and up to
fi
ve years,
over
fi
ve and up to ten years and over ten years, weighted with the
12-month moving average of new loan volumes for each category.
These interest rates are not directly comparable across countries
as they comprise different underlying credit risks. Belgium and
Portugal are shown as they are the other two âbest-performingâ
EU Member States in terms of price stability, as de
fi
ned in the
Treaty (see Box 1 in Chapter 2).
1) 12-month moving average calculated from March 2009 to
February 2010.
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Memo item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
6.4
6.1
6.2
10.9
17.5
14.4
11.0
10.7
11.1
6.5
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
30.2
23.9
29.8
34.5
47.1
26.5
34.2
26.3
8.7
13.5
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
-
-
-
-
59.8
69.1
82.8
93.2
97.0
107.6
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
-
16.4
15.7
13.9
11.7
13.9
12.0
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
111
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May 2010
L A T V I A
5.4 LATVIA
5.4.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Latvia was 0.1%, i.e. well below
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability (see Table 1). On the basis of the
most recent information, the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation is expected to decline in
the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Latvia remained broadly stable
in the early 2000s,
fl
uctuating in a range of 2%
to 3% until 2003 (see Chart 1). In late 2003 it
started to increase and
fl
uctuated in a range of
6% to 7% for a few years, before picking up
signi
fi
cantly in 2007. The pick-up in in
fl
ation
was initially attributable to an increase in
administered prices and import prices caused
by the depreciation of the lats vis-Ă -vis the euro,
as well as adjustments in indirect taxation and
a combination of one-off factors. In later years
excessive demand and credit growth (supported,
inter alia, by low, and at times negative, real
interest rates), very strong wage increases and
hikes in global energy and food prices also
contributed increasingly to driving up in
fl
ation
and led to an erosion of competitiveness.
However, as these macroeconomic developments
proved unsustainable, the Latvian economy
experienced a deep crisis. After peaking at an
annual average rate of 15.3% in 2008, HICP
in
fl
ation fell sharply to 3.3% in 2009.
Economic and monetary policy choices
have played an important role in shaping
in
fl
ation developments over the past decade.
The moderate in
fl
ation developments up to
2003 re
fl
ected, in particular, the orientation of
monetary policy towards the achievement of
price stability, which is the primary objective,
as enshrined in the central bank law. In 1994
Latvia
fi
rst pegged the lats to the special drawing
right (SDR) and then re-pegged it to the euro at
the beginning of 2005 with a
fl
uctuation band
of Âą1% around the parity. In May 2005 Latvia
joined ERM II at the previously established
central rate and unilaterally retained the
existing narrow
fl
uctuation band. The stability
of in
fl
ation up to 2003 was supported by
fi
scal
policies, reforms designed to enhance product
market competition and labour market reforms.
In subsequent years, however, the countryâs
monetary policy was constrained by the aim
to maintain the unilateral band within ERM II,
and the overall policy stance (including
fi
scal
policy) was not tight enough to counter the
growing signs of overheating.
In
fl
ation developments over the past ten years
should be viewed against the background of
very robust real GDP growth in most years,
which has been followed more recently by a
pronounced turnaround in the economic cycle,
owing to a build-up and subsequent correction
of signi
fi
cant macroeconomic imbalances and
vulnerabilities. This turnaround was exacerbated
by the impact of the global
fi
nancial and
economic crisis. Particularly during the boom
years from 2005 to 2007, the Latvian economy
exhibited growing signs of serious overheating
and rising macroeconomic imbalances as unit
labour costs rose by approximately 20% per
year, house prices tripled and real GDP grew
by more than 10% per year during that period.
The turnaround started in the course of 2007,
triggered by a slowdown in bank lending on
the back of concerns among foreign banks
about their exposure to the Baltic region.
Government measures aimed at reducing
in
fl
ation and credit growth also helped to slow
down economic growth.
Towards the end of 2008 the banking
system faced growing liquidity tensions
owing to large external
fi
nancing needs and
deposit withdrawals, led by a run on a large
domestically owned bank. As these liquidity
tensions then started to cause balance of
payments problems, Latvia was forced to seek
international
fi
nancial assistance and implement
a drastic
fi
scal adjustment programme to
stabilise the
fi
nancial sector, restore con
fi
dence
and regain competitiveness. Macroeconomic
conditions weakened abruptly, in particular in
112
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Convergence Report
May 2010
late 2008 and early 2009, re
fl
ecting the collapse
of domestic demand, the unwinding of the
credit and housing bubble and the signi
fi
cant
deterioration in the external environment.
Real GDP declined by 18% in 2009, following
a contraction of 4.6% in 2008. The collapse in
output turned out to be substantially deeper than
generally expected and gave rise to recurring
political, macroeconomic and
fi
nancial tensions.
As a result of the extraordinary contraction in
economic activity, labour market conditions
weakened drastically, with the unemployment
rate rising sharply to almost 22% in early
2010. Wages started to fall during 2009, with
compensation per employee standing around
20% lower than a year earlier in the fourth
quarter. Unit labour costs decreased markedly
as the fall in labour costs outpaced the decline
in labour productivity per person employed.
As a result of shrinking household incomes and
corporate cost-cutting, together with the base
effect of the earlier boom in commodity and
food prices, consumer prices started to fall in
the course of 2009. Other price indices con
fi
rm
that this decline was relatively broad-based
(see Table 2). House prices have declined
sharply and currently stand at around one-third
of their peak level reached in spring 2007.
Looking at recent developments, the annual
HICP in
fl
ation rate turned negative in the
fi
nal quarter of 2009, to stand at -4.0% in
March 2010 (see Table 3a). Although fuel
prices in particular had an upward impact on
in
fl
ation in January, prices in general remained
fi
rmly on a downward trend. All main HICP
components made a negative contribution to the
annual rate of HICP in
fl
ation in the
fi
rst months
of 2010. Changes in indirect taxes have had a
signi
fi
cant upward impact on HICP in
fl
ation in
past months, re
fl
ecting, inter alia, the increase in
excise duties on alcohol and tobacco introduced
at the beginning of 2010. By contrast, changes
in administered prices have reduced in
fl
ation
in past months, following a reduction in gas
and heating tariffs (the share of administered
prices in Latviaâs HICP basket is 12.7%).
In addition, the marked decrease in in
fl
ation in
2009 also re
fl
ects the relatively strong impact
of lower energy and food prices over that year.
The current in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed
against the background of a strong retrenchment
in domestic spending. In the course of 2009,
however, the decline in output moderated
and signs of improvement emerged in export-
oriented sectors.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
-3.7% to -2.8% for 2010 and from -2.5% to
-0.7% for 2011 (see Table 3b). The declining
trend in the price level is likely to persist in 2010
and into 2011, re
fl
ecting a further contraction
in domestic demand and falling incomes.
The expected lack of in
fl
ationary pressures in
the Latvian economy also re
fl
ects the adjustment
process necessary for an economy with a
fi
xed
exchange rate to restore accumulated losses in
competitiveness. The fall in prices could come
to an end in 2011, although this scenario is
surrounded by signi
fi
cant uncertainty. Upside
risks to the in
fl
ation outlook stem from potential
further increases in indirect taxes and global
commodity prices. On the downside, the decline
in domestic price pressures could be larger or
more protracted than presently envisaged if
economic activity recovers more slowly or later
than currently expected.
Looking further ahead, once the adjustment
phase is over, maintaining low in
fl
ation rates
in Latvia will be very challenging, given the
limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy. The catching-up process is also likely
to have a bearing on in
fl
ation over the coming
years, given that GDP per capita and price
levels are still lower in Latvia than in the euro
area (see Table 2). However, it is dif
fi
cult to
assess the exact size of the in
fl
ation effect
resulting from this catching-up process. Once
output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange
rate regime, the underlying real exchange rate
appreciation trend is likely to manifest itself in
higher in
fl
ation. In the context of this process of
ongoing convergence, it cannot be ruled out that
signi
fi
cant demand pressure may emerge again.
Given the tightly pegged exchange rate and
the limitations of alternative counter-cyclical
113
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
L A T V I A
policy instruments, it may be dif
fi
cult to
prevent macroeconomic imbalances, including
high rates of in
fl
ation, from building up again.
The experience with the strong growth over the
past few years highlights the challenges that
the Latvian authorities face in achieving price
stability in the virtual absence of independent
monetary policy.
To sum up, although the 12-month average rate of
HICP in
fl
ation in Latvia is currently well below
the reference value â mainly as a result of
temporary factors, including the severe economic
adjustment process â there are considerable
concerns regarding the sustainability of in
fl
ation
convergence in Latvia.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Latvia requires the
conduct of economic policies geared towards
ensuring overall macroeconomic stability,
including sustainable price stability. Given
the limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy under the current exchange rate peg,
it is imperative that other policy areas provide
the economy with the wherewithal to cope
with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid the
reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
More speci
fi
cally, it is necessary for Latvia to
continue along a path of comprehensive
fi
scal
consolidation in line with the requirements
under the EDP and its commitments agreed
in the context of the international
fi
nancial
assistance programme led by the EU and the
IMF. In addition, despite recent progress, further
unit labour cost restraint is needed to foster
improvements in Latviaâs competitiveness, as
the countryâs competitive position vis-Ă -vis
the euro area deteriorated in the boom years.
Moreover, it is essential to implement further
structural reform measures, which focus, for
example, on strengthening the competitiveness
of the tradable sector. Structural reform efforts
will also need to be aimed at reducing the
incidence of structural unemployment. It is also
particularly important to avoid a decline in the
participation rate. Such reforms could help to
mitigate the potential long-term consequences
of the current economic downturn and support
balanced growth in the future. Finally,
con
fi
dence in the soundness of the
fi
nancial
sector needs to be strengthened, for example
by making further progress in the restructuring of
state-owned banks. Financial sector policies
should also be geared towards preventing
excessive credit growth in the future. Given the
potential
fi
nancial stability risks associated with
the very high levels of foreign currency-
denominated loans in Latvia, the introduction of
concrete macro-prudential measures to reduce
the underlying vulnerabilities related to foreign
currency lending is desirable, for which close
cooperation between home and host country
supervisory authorities is warranted. More
generally, this implies that the loan conditions
agreed under the international
fi
nancial assistance
programme led by the EU and the IMF should
be implemented fully and without raising
doubts about the governmentâs commitment
to the programme. Progress in these areas will
help to achieve an environment conducive to
sustainable price stability, as well as to promote
competitiveness and employment growth.
5.4.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Latvia is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget showed a de
fi
cit of 9.0%
of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the 3% de
fi
cit
reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 36.1%, i.e. well
below the 60% reference value (see Table 4).
Compared with the previous year, the budget
balance deteriorated by 4.9 percentage points
and the government debt ratio increased by
16.6 percentage points. In 2010 the budget
de
fi
cit is forecast by the European Commission
to decrease to 8.6% and the government debt
ratio is projected to rise to 48.5%. With regard
to other
fi
scal factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded
the ratio of public investment expenditure
to GDP in 2009 and is expected to do so also
in 2010.
Looking at developments in Latviaâs budgetary
position over the period 2000 to 2009, the
114
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio gradually declined
until 2007 and increased sharply thereafter
(see Table 5 and Chart 2a). Starting from a level
of 2.8% of GDP in 2000, the de
fi
cit ratio declined
to 0.3% of GDP in 2007, but rose sharply to
4.1% of GDP in 2008. Against the background
of the rise in the budget de
fi
cit above the
reference value in 2008, the ECOFIN Council
decided on 7 July 2009 that an excessive de
fi
cit
situation existed in Latvia and set the deadline
for its correction at 2012. As is shown in greater
detail in Chart 2b, European Commission
estimates indicate that cyclical factors had an
overall positive impact on the budget balance
between 2005 and 2007, before the detrimental
impact of the
fi
nancial and economic crisis
started to become apparent in 2008. Non-cyclical
factors have tended to increase the budget
de
fi
cit since 2005 and contributed to a strong
deterioration in the budget balance in 2008.
In the absence of temporary and one-off factors
between 2006 and 2008, these developments in
the factors underlying the change in the budget
de
fi
cit seem to re
fl
ect a lasting deterioration in
Latviaâs structural budgetary position, which
is measured as the cyclically adjusted budget
balance net of one-off and temporary measures.
In its response to the economic crisis, the
Latvian government implemented signi
fi
cant
consolidation measures in order to reduce the
existing
fi
scal imbalance. In December 2008
the Latvian authorities entered into a stand-
by arrangement with the IMF and in 2009
obtained medium-term
fi
nancial assistance from
the EU. These budgetary adjustments, which
focused largely on reducing current government
expenditure, replaced the previous unrealistic
budgetary plans based on an output contraction
of only 1%. Assessing how Latviaâs structural
budgetary position changed during the crisis
is, however, particularly dif
fi
cult in view of
uncertainty over the level and growth rate of
potential output.
Turning to developments in general
government gross debt, between 2000 and
2009 the debt-to-GDP ratio increased
cumulatively by 23.8 percentage points
(see Chart 3a and Table 6). As shown in
greater detail in Chart 3b, this increase relates
to the developments in de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
in 2008 and 2009 in particular, re
fl
ecting the
fi
nancial
fl
ows received from, inter alia, the
IMF and the EU in the context of balance of
payments support (see the statistical section).
At the same time, while the impact of the
primary balance was small until 2007, it became
signi
fi
cant thereafter (see Table 5). The growth/
interest rate differential had a dampening effect
on the debt ratio between 2004 and 2007, but
a debt-increasing effect thereafter. In 2009
the general government debt-to-GDP ratio
increased strongly in a sharply deteriorating
macroeconomic environment, re
fl
ecting a high
primary de
fi
cit, a high de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
and a negative growth/interest rate differential.
As regards Latviaâs general government debt
structure, the share of government debt with
a short-term maturity increased from 10% in
2000 to 35.9% in 2008, but declined to 14.8%
in 2009 (see Table 6). Taking into account
the level of the debt ratio,
fi
scal balances are
relatively insensitive to changes in interest rates.
At the same time, the proportion of government
debt denominated in foreign currency was, at
73.3% of total debt, including 11.9% of total
debt denominated in other (non-euro) foreign
currencies, high in 2009. Given the overall
debt level, the
fi
scal balance is thus sensitive to
changes in the exchange rate of the lats vis-Ă -vis
the euro but relatively insensitive to changes
in the exchange rate vis-Ă -vis other currencies.
During the
fi
nancial and economic crisis, the
share of debt with a short-term maturity rose
signi
fi
cantly by comparison with 2007, pointing
to a rise in debt-related vulnerabilities. The
share of debt denominated in foreign currency
remained broadly stable until 2008, but rose
strongly in 2009, and its composition changed
more towards non-euro foreign currencies in
those two years. At the same time, the Latvian
government has incurred contingent liabilities
resulting from government interventions and the
stabilisation of one major
fi
nancial institution
during the crisis (see the statistical section).
115
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Convergence Report
May 2010
L A T V I A
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure-to-GDP
ratio increased from 37.3% in 2000 to 43.0% in
2009. During the period under consideration, a
decline in social bene
fi
ts until 2008 was broadly
offset by higher spending in the item âother
current expenditureâ, while capital expenditure
increased by 1.2 percentage points to 4.9%
of GDP in 2009. Total government revenue
remained broadly unchanged, standing at 34.0%
of GDP in 2009. Overall, the development in
the total revenue-to-GDP ratio re
fl
ects increases
in other current revenue, which were partly
compensated for by lower indirect taxes and social
security contributions.
Looking ahead, Latviaâs medium-term
fi
scal
policy strategy, as presented in the 2009-12
update of the convergence programme (dated
January 2010 and thus preceding the European
Commission forecasts shown in Table 4),
envisages a gradual decline in the de
fi
cit
ratio to just below the 3% reference value in
2012 (2.9% of GDP). According to this
fi
scal
strategy, for 2010 the Latvian government
is planning for a reduction of the de
fi
cit by
1.5 percentage points to 8.5% of GDP. At the
same time, until 2011 the structural de
fi
cit will
be above the medium-term objective speci
fi
ed in
the Stability and Growth Pact, which, as in
the previous programme update, is quanti
fi
ed in
the convergence programme as a structural de
fi
cit
of 1% of GDP. Total revenues are projected to
increase as a share of GDP until 2012, reaching
39.4% of GDP, while the total expenditure-
to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 42.4%
in the same period. On the revenue side, this is
attributable to,
inter alia, an increase in personal
income tax and other taxes, particularly in 2010.
On the expenditure side, this re
fl
ects, inter
alia, substantial cuts in current expenditure.
Moreover, the government gross debt ratio is
expected to increase to 56.8% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on Latviaâs public
fi
nances over the long term, as highlighted in
Table 8, a marked ageing of the population is
expected. According to the 2009 projections by
the European Commission and the EUâs
Economic Policy Committee, starting from a
level of 12.3% of GDP in 2010, Latvia is likely
to experience a moderate increase in age-related
public expenditure amounting to 1.3 percentage
points of GDP in the years to 2060.
8
This re
fl
ects
in large part the implementation of a major
pension reform in the 1990s, which established
a second, privately funded pension pillar.
However, continued vigilance is required,
as actual demographic and economic
developments may turn out to be less favourable
than assumed in the projections. In the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Latvia is assessed to be at high risk with regard
to the sustainability of its public
fi
nances,
mainly owing to its unfavourable starting
position regarding the primary
fi
scal balance
de
fi
cit.
9
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, Latvia must bring
its budget de
fi
cit below the 3% reference value
by 2012 in line with the EDP commitments
and ful
fi
l the commitments agreed in the
context of the
fi
nancial assistance programme
led by the EU and the IMF. This requires fully
implementing the requested comprehensive
consolidation measures in 2010, specifying
and implementing additional consolidation
measures thereafter and increasing tax
compliance. At the same time, the quality of
public
fi
nances should be further improved by
making public administration more ef
fi
cient.
Latviaâs
fi
scal policy strategy should be
embedded in a further strengthened
fi
scal
framework with enhanced
fi
scal governance
and strict expenditure rules which contribute
to avoiding pro-cyclical
fi
scal policies in the
future.
5.4.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
The Latvian lats has been participating in ERM
II with effect from 2 May 2005, i.e. for the entire
two-year reference period from 24 April 2008
to 23 April 2010 (see Table 9a). The central
8 â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
Policy Committee.
9 âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
116
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
rate for the Latvian currency has remained at
0.702804 lats per euro with a standard
fl
uctuation
band of Âą15%. At the time of ERM II entry,
the Latvian authorities unilaterally undertook
to maintain the exchange rate of the lats within
a
fl
uctuation band of Âą1% around the central
rate, thus placing no additional obligations
on the ECB. The agreement on participation
in ERM II was based on a number of policy
commitments by the Latvian authorities,
relating, inter alia, to pursuing sound
fi
scal
policies, promoting wage moderation, reducing
in
fl
ation, containing credit growth, reducing
the current account de
fi
cit and implementing
structural reforms. The unilateral commitment
to the Âą1%
fl
uctuation band has meant that the
lats has remained close to its central rate since
joining ERM II. While the maximum upward
deviation of the exchange rate from the ERM
II central rate amounted to 0.9% over the
period under review, the maximum downward
deviation was 1.0% (see Chart 5 and Table 9a).
Within ERM II, Latvia has not devalued its
currencyâs central rate against the euro on its
own initiative. Over the period under review
Latvijas Banka continued to be active in the
foreign exchange market. Overall, its purchases
and sales of foreign currency in the two-year
period under review resulted in a net sale.
In 2008 and 2009 Latvia received international
fi
nancial assistance, led by the EU and the
IMF. On 16 December 2008 Sveriges Riksbank
and Danmarks Nationalbank announced that
they had entered into a swap agreement under
which Latvijas Banka could borrow up to
âŹ500 million in exchange for Latvian lats. This
agreement had expired by the end of 2009.
As the international
fi
nancial assistance, coupled
with this agreement, helped to reduce
fi
nancial
vulnerabilities, it contributed to reducing
exchange rate pressures.
Indeed, over the last two years there have been
several episodes of severe market tensions
when the Latvian lats has traded close to the
weaker side of the unilaterally set
fl
uctuation
band. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in
September 2008, the unfavourable economic
outlook for Latvia and rumours regarding a
possible devaluation of the ERM II central
rate, together with credit rating downgrades
by several rating agencies and the growing
liquidity tensions faced by the banking system,
characterised a
fi
rst period of severe tensions
between October and December 2008. As these
tensions spilled over into balance of payments
problems, Latvia was forced to seek international
fi
nancial assistance and agreed to implement a
determined adjustment programme in order to
stabilise the
fi
nancial sector, restore con
fi
dence
and regain competitiveness. A second episode
of severe tensions occurred between March and
June 2009, re
fl
ecting the rapid deterioration of
the Latvian economy and government
fi
nances,
further downgrades of Latviaâs sovereign credit
ratings and investorsâ changing sentiment about
the ful
fi
lment of the conditions agreed for
international
fi
nancial assistance. The situation
improved in June 2009 when the plan for the
2009 budget cuts was unveiled. Uncertainties
surrounding the adoption of
fi
scal measures by
the Latvian Parliament in September 2009 led
to another period of exchange rate pressure, so
that the Latvian lats traded close to the weaker
end of the Âą1% unilaterally set
fl
uctuation band
in October 2009.
The exchange rate volatility of the Latvian
lats vis-Ă -vis the euro, as measured by
annualised standard deviations of daily
percentage changes, increased to relatively
high levels in August 2009, before decreasing
thereafter. At the same time short-term interest
rate differentials against the three-month
EURIBOR re
fl
ected the various episodes of
severe market tensions. The spread increased
to high levels of 4.7 percentage points in the
three-month period ending in November 2008
on account of the unfavourable outlook for
Latviaâs economy, which was re
fl
ected in
several downgrades of Latviaâs sovereign
credit rating by various rating agencies, and the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. In the
three-month period ending in August 2009
the spread peaked at 16.1 percentage points,
before decreasing to 2.8 percentage points in
117
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L A T V I A
the three-month period ending in March 2010
(see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
Latvian latsâ real effective exchange rate
stood close to, and its real bilateral exchange
rate against the euro somewhat above,
the corresponding ten-year average levels
(see Table 10). However, these measures should
be interpreted with caution, as in this period
Latvia was subject to a process of economic
convergence, which complicates any historical
assessment of real exchange rate developments.
As regards other external developments,
Latvia was characterised by widening de
fi
cits
in the combined current and capital account
of its balance of payments, which rose from
relatively high levels of 4.3% of GDP in 2000
to very high levels of 20.4% in 2007. While
high current account de
fi
cits may have been
partly associated with the catching-up process
of an economy such as Latviaâs, de
fi
cits of such
magnitude have raised concerns about their
sustainability. Indeed, the need to correct these
large de
fi
cits was obvious at the beginning of
the far-reaching adjustment process Latvia had
to undergo following the overheating period.
After a strong fall in domestic demand, which
led to lower imports, the current account balance
of -11.5% of GDP in 2008 turned sharply into a
surplus of 11.8% of GDP in 2009. This drastic
shift re
fl
ected a substantially decreasing goods
de
fi
cit and, to a lesser extent, rising services
and transfers surpluses. In addition, the income
balance turned positive, recording its highest
surplus for a decade. The shifts recorded in the
balance of payments of Latvia over the past two
years have been associated with a sharp reversal
of capital
fl
ows, against the background of the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. From a
fi
nancing perspective, combined direct and
portfolio investment has consistently recorded
net in
fl
ows over the past ten years. In addition,
while the additional
fi
nancing needs were met
by very large in
fl
ows in other investment,
primarily in the form of bank loans, until 2008,
other investment recorded substantial out
fl
ows
in 2009. Against this background, gross external
debt increased from 61.4% of GDP in 2000
to 128.5% in 2008, before sharply rising to
154.7% of GDP in 2009. At the same time the
countryâs net international investment position
deteriorated substantially, from -30.0% of
GDP in 2000 to -78.1% in 2008 and -81.3%
in 2009. The high level of this position and its
rapid deterioration also points to the importance
of policies supporting external sustainability.
Latvia is a small, open economy; the ratio of
foreign trade in goods and services to GDP
recently increased slightly, from 41.5% in
2008 to 41.9% of GDP in 2009 for exports, but
contracted signi
fi
cantly from 55.1% in 2008 to
42.3% in 2009 for imports (see Table 11). With
the normalisation of
fi
nancial market conditions,
reaching and maintaining a sustainable long-term
external position will depend on the
implementation of the appropriate domestic
economic policies.
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods to
the euro area constituted 21.7% of total exports,
whereas the corresponding
fi
gure for imports
was higher at 32.0%. The share of euro area
countries in Latviaâs inward direct investment
stood at 34.1% in 2009 and that in its portfolio
investment liabilities at 55.4% in 2008.
The share of Latviaâs assets invested in the euro
area amounted to 15.4% in the case of direct
investment in 2009 and 18.1% for portfolio
investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
With regard to the ful
fi
lment of the commitments
made by the Latvian authorities upon ERM II
entry, the following observations can be made.
Fiscal policies after ERM II entry were not
prudent enough, as they failed to contribute
suf
fi
ciently to containing the emergence
of signi
fi
cant macroeconomic imbalances.
As a consequence, since 2008, against the
background of a notable deterioration in the
general government budgetary position and a
sharp output adjustment, comprehensive
fi
scal
consolidation measures to contain a further
deterioration of the budget balance have had to
be implemented. Efforts to reduce wage growth
were largely ineffective after ERM II entry.
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May 2010
The adjustment of the unsustainable dynamics
in wages materialised only in 2009. Similarly,
in
fl
ation increased sharply after ERM II
entry, peaking at 15.3% in 2008, and only in
2009, when the economic boom turned into
a deep crisis, did in
fl
ation start to decline.
After ERM II entry some monetary policy
measures and credit-restraining measures in
the anti-in
fl
ation plan were implemented to
help to contain rapid credit growth. Even so,
credit growth was excessive until 2007, when
an adjustment started to take place following
the severe deterioration in the economic outlook
in Latvia and, later on, the reassessment of risks
prompted by the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. However, borrowing in foreign currency
(almost exclusively euro) has continued in
recent years, increasing the unhedged exposure
of domestic agents to exchange rate risk.
As regards structural reforms, no major measures
were implemented until the adoption of the
anti-in
fl
ation plan in 2007 and, most
importantly, the agreement in 2008 on
the international
fi
nancial
assistance
package led by the EU and the IMF.
Firm implementation of the measures agreed
on is important to restore the competitiveness
of the economy and support the reallocation
of resources from the non-tradable to the
tradable sector.
5.4.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 long-term interest rates in Latvia
were 12.7% on average and thus considerably
above the 6.0% reference value for the interest
rate convergence criterion (see Table 13).
From 2001 until mid-2006 long-term interest rates
in Latvia declined, albeit with some volatility,
mainly re
fl
ecting a combination of moderate
in
fl
ationary pressures and strong economic
growth, as well as the entry of the Latvian
lats into ERM II in May 2005 (see Chart 6a).
From mid-2006 to mid-2007, long-term
interest rates in Latvia were on an upward
trend, following a downgrade of the countryâs
long-term foreign currency debt rating and
in line with increasing fears concerning
overheating in the economy and in
fl
ationary
pressures. In addition, during the
fi
rst half
of 2007 Latvijas Banka increased the main
re
fi
nancing rate by 1 percentage point in
response to rising in
fl
ation. As
fi
nancial market
tensions eased, long-term interest rates declined
after June 2007, remaining unaffected by the
renewed tensions in the money markets in the
autumn of that year.
Following the build-up of large macroeconomic
imbalances in previous years, Latvia was
strongly affected by the international
fi
nancial
market turmoil in late 2008. At the beginning
of 2008, long-term interest rates had decreased
in response to the decision by Latvijas Banka
to reduce the reserve ratio for bank liabilities.
However, following the fall of Lehman Brothers,
the situation deteriorated rapidly. Given the
banking systemâs reliance on foreign funding,
mounting liquidity shortages and doubts
about the viability of banks triggered deposit
out
fl
ows from the banking system. During the
last quarter of 2008
fi
nancial market pressures
increased, as re
fl
ected in the downgrading
by all the major rating agencies and in the
sharp increase in long-term government
bond yields from 6.6% to 9% at the end of
December 2008. In the meantime, the Latvian
authorities had to seek international
fi
nancial
assistance and announced drastic adjustment
measures. In order to free up liquidity,
Latvijas Banka lowered further the reserve
ratio for bank liabilities. By February 2009
long-term interest rates had reached 11.5%.
However,
fi
nancial market pressures returned
following political tensions, compounding
the economic and
fi
nancial challenges. In
particular, in June and September 2009
worries about Latviaâs commitment to comply
with the policy conditionality of the EU
and IMF-led
fi
nancial assistance programme
re-emerged, leading to recurring tension in
fi
nancial markets, with long-term interest
rates reaching 13.7% in November 2009.
The rapid deterioration in the Latvian economy
and government
fi
nances led the three major
119
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May 2010
L A T V I A
rating agencies to cut Latviaâs sovereign credit
ratings several times during 2009, with the
result that, in two cases, the rating in early
2010 stood below investment grade. During
the year, Latvijas Banka reduced in two steps
of 100 basis points its re
fi
nancing rate from
6% to 4% and its marginal deposit facility rate
from 3% to 1%. These steps were taken in view
of the weak lending activity and the continued
deterioration in economic activity. During
the last quarter of 2009 market sentiment
already started to improve as the Latvian
government stepped up its efforts to comply
with the policy conditionality of the
fi
nancial
assistance programme. Tensions in money
markets eased with the approval of the budget
in December 2009,which was also supported
by a general improvement in the global appetite
for risk vis-Ă -vis emerging economies, while
long-term interest rates remained broadly
unchanged. In March 2010 Latvijas Banka
lowered its re
fi
nancing rate further to 3.5% and
its marginal deposit rate of 0.5%. At the end of
the reference period, the long-term interest rate
remained at elevated levels of 10.5%. It should
be noted, however, that the low liquidity of the
long-term securities market segment suggests
that the data should be interpreted with caution.
Owing to the steep decline in Latvian
long-term interest rates, the interest rate
differential with the euro area declined until
early 2003. It then increased slightly, but
declined thereafter, even reaching negative
values in early 2006. From then until October
2008 the spread with the euro increased to around
230 basis points (see Chart 6b), mainly
re
fl
ecting the signi
fi
cant increase in the in
fl
ation
differential between Latvia and the euro area.
Broadly mirroring the developments in yields
on long-term government bonds, the spread with
the euro increased throughout 2009, recording
a sharp upward movement in response to the
heightened concerns during the summer and
autumn. At the end of the reference period the
spread stood at 691 basis points.
The Latvian capital market is smaller and
much less developed than that of the euro area.
Corporate sector market-based indebtedness
is very low compared with other countries at a
similar stage of economic development: the value
of outstanding
fi
xed-income securities issued by
corporations was equal to 1.5% of GDP in 2009
(see Table 14). The stock market capitalisation
(7.0% of GDP in 2009) is also very low compared
with the euro area. The value of outstanding
bank credit to non-government residents has
been increasing very rapidly. From 2002 to
2009 its ratio to GDP more than doubled,
reaching 102.0%. This level is the highest
among Member States in central and eastern
Europe and is comparable with that of some
euro area countries. The majority of loans to the
private sector are in foreign currency, mostly in
the anchor currency, the euro. Foreign-owned
banks, namely Nordic group banks, play a
major role in the Latvian banking sector.
Despite the
fi
nancial crisis, international claims
of euro area banks in the country have been
increasing over time and reached 15.0% of total
liabilities in 2009.
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L A T V I A
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
LATVIA
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
122
Chart 1
Price developments
122
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
122
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
123
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
123
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
123
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
124
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
124
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
125
(a) Levels
125
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
125
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
125
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
126
(a) Levels
126
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
126
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
126
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
127
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
127
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
128
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Latvian lats
128
Chart 5
Latvian lats: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
128
(a) Deviation from ERM II
central rate
128
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
128
Table 10 Latvian lats: real exchange
rate developments
129
Table 11 External developments
129
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
129
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
130
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
130
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
130
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
130
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
130
122
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May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 1
Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-10
0
10
20
30
-10
0
10
20
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
2.6 2.5 2.0 2.9 6.2 6.9 6.6
10.1
15.3 3.3
HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy
2.3 1.4 1.6 2.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 9.7
13.8 3.5
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
5.8 6.7 6.2 9.8
13.6 -1.9
CPI
2.6 2.5 1.9 2.9 6.2 6.7 6.5
10.1
15.4 3.5
Private consumption de
fl
ator
3.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 7.1 8.7 6.0
10.3
15.6 3.2
GDP de
fl
ator
4.2 1.7 3.6 3.6 7.0
10.2 9.9
20.3
15.4 -0.7
Producer prices
2)
-
-
0.0 1.8 7.3 7.1 9.6
18.6
15.7 -1.7
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
6.9 8.0 6.5 7.2 8.7
10.6
12.2
10.0 -4.6
-18.0
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
32.6 34.5 37.0 39.2 41.7 44.3 47.2 51.0 52.8
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
58.7
58.7
56.7
52.8
54.4
55.8
59.5
65.6
69.8
-
Output gap
4)
-2.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 1.0 4.1 9.7
15.3 8.3 -9.8
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
13.7 12.9 12.2 10.5 10.4 8.9 6.8 6.0 7.5 17.2
Unit labour costs, whole economy
-3.0
-2.3
-0.6
5.6
6.6
14.8
15.2
27.2
21.0
-7.1
Compensation per employee, whole economy
7.1 4.3 2.8 11.0 14.5 25.1 23.2 35.1 14.5 -11.9
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
10.5 6.8 3.4 5.1 7.4 8.9 7.0 6.2 -5.4 -5.1
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
6.0 0.9 4.4 6.0 8.7
10.9
10.1 8.4
12.0 -2.7
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
8.2 0.0 -3.5 -6.7 -2.9 -5.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 2.0
Money
supply
(M3)
26.8 20.2 18.2 21.1 25.2 37.3 41.0 15.7 -5.1 -2.7
Lending
from
banks
37.8 49.8 36.5 37.5 43.7 61.2 59.1 34.9 9.8 -6.8
Stock prices (Riga Stock Exchange Index)
-
46.9
-14.3
47.0
43.5
63.5
-3.1
-9.2
-54.4
2.6
Residential property prices
-
-
-
2.7
2.3
20.0
159.3
45.1
-18.3
-30.5
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
-1.4 -3.3 -4.3 -4.0
0.1
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
123
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
L A T V I A
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009 2010
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
HICP
Annual
percentage
change
-1.4 -1.4 -3.3 -4.3 -4.0
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-5.1
-5.2
-5.6
-4.6
-4.4
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-2.7
-3.7
-4.3
-4.6
-4.6
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010 2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
-3.2
-0.7
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1)
-
-
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
-3.7
-2.5
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
-2.8
-0.7
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
1) Estonia is not an OECD member.
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May 2010
2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008 2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
-4.1 -9.0 -8.6
Reference
value
-3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
0.7 -5.1 -4.5
General government gross debt
19.5
36.1
48.5
Reference
value
60.0 60.0 60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
34.6 32.5 33.4 33.2 34.7 35.1 37.7 35.4 34.4 34.0
Current
revenue
33.9 32.4 33.1 33.1 34.3 34.0 36.6 34.7 33.1 33.0
Direct
taxes
7.3 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.9 8.5 9.2 9.7 7.1
Indirect
taxes
12.3 11.8 11.2 12.1 11.7 12.4 12.8 12.2 10.8 10.6
Social
security
contributions
10.1 9.4 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.6 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.8
Other
current
revenue
4.2 3.7 4.6 4.4 5.8 5.2 6.3 4.3 4.1 6.6
Capital
revenue
0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.0
Total expenditure
37.3 34.6 35.6 34.8 35.8 35.5 38.1 35.7 38.6 43.0
Current
expenditure
33.6 31.2 32.1 32.0 31.6 30.6 31.1 28.9 33.0 38.0
Compensation
of
employees
10.8 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.5 10.0 10.0 10.6 12.0 11.9
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
12.4
11.2
10.1 9.4 9.2 8.4 8.1 7.1 8.0
12.3
Interest
payable
1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.6
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
current
expenditure
9.5 8.9 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.6 12.5 10.8 12.4 12.1
Capital
expenditure
3.7 3.4 3.5 2.8 4.2 5.0 7.1 6.8 5.6 4.9
Surplus (+)/deficit (-)
-2.8 -2.1 -2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -4.1 -9.0
Primary
balance
-1.8
-1.2 -1.5 -0.9 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -3.5 -7.4
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
-1.4 -1.0 -1.0 0.8 2.1 2.7 4.1 5.4 0.7 -5.1
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
125
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Convergence Report
May 2010
L A T V I A
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-10
-5
0
-10
-5
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
12.3 14.0 13.5 14.6 14.9 12.4 10.7 9.0 19.5 36.1
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
37.6 35.2 37.7 41.6 42.6 43.2 43.5 39.9 43.5 26.7
In
foreign
currencies
62.4 64.8 62.3 58.4 57.4 56.8 56.5 60.1 56.5 73.3
Euro
1)
30.8 41.3 42.5 45.5 51.7 53.2 53.6 58.0 42.8 61.3
Other
foreign
currencies
31.6
23.6
19.8
12.9 5.7 3.6 2.9 2.1
13.7
11.9
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
38.7 35.1 40.5 51.0 47.7 49.5 49.0 45.4 56.7 32.2
Average residual maturity
(in
years)
6.5 6.5 6.0 4.6 6.2 5.8 7.6 8.8 6.1 6.3
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term (up to and including one year)
10.0
3.9
4.9
12.5
9.8
9.4
6.6
7.7
35.9
14.8
Medium
and
long-term
(over
one
year)
90.0 96.1 95.1 87.5 90.2 90.6 93.4 92.3 64.1 85.2
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
126
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Chart 4
General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
total expenditure
total revenue
Source: ESCB.
Chart 3
General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-10
0
10
20
-10
0
10
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
127
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May 2010
L A T V I A
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Change in general government debt
1)
1.1
2.8
0.8
2.5
2.4
0.1
0.6
0.9
11.4
12.1
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-2.8
-2.1
-2.3
-1.6
-1.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
-4.1
-9.0
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-1.7
0.7
-1.5
0.9
1.3
-0.3
0.1
0.6
7.2
3.1
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
-0.3
1.2
-0.8
1.0
1.4
-0.3
2.7
1.8
7.6
4.6
Currency and deposits
-0.9
2.0
-0.8
0.3
1.0
-1.0
1.4
1.1
2.9
3.5
Loans and securities other than shares
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.4
-0.5
0.0
-0.2
0.0
4.1
-0.1
Shares and other equity
-0.8
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.1
0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.2
1.3
Privatisations
-0.8
-0.6
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
Equity injections
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
1.4
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other
fi
nancial assets
0.9
-0.3
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.4
2.0
0.6
0.4
-0.1
Valuation changes of general government debt
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.5
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other valuation effects
2)
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.5
Other changes in general government debt
3)
-1.3
-0.5
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-2.6
-1.1
-0.5
-1.0
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(t â 1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
25.0
25.2
28.1
34.6
40.7
51.2
64.5
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
12.7
12.3
12.4
13.5
13.8
13.8
13.6
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
128
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May 2010
3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
Yes
Membership since
2 May 2005
ERM II central rate in LVL/EUR
0.702804
ERM II
fl
uctuation band
+/- 15%
Devaluation of bilateral central rate on countryâs own initiative
No
Maximum upward deviation
1)
0.9
Maximum downward deviation
1)
-1.0
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations from ERM II central rate over the period 24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business
frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency is on the strong (weak) side of the band.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Latvian lats
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008
2009
2010
June
Sep.
Dec.
Mar.
June
Sep.
Dec.
Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
1.5
1.1
0.9
2.0
1.6
2.6
1.0
0.6
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
1.1
1.3
7.8
9.5
14.4
13.0
10.5
2.8
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
C h a r t 5 Latvian lats: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Deviation from ERM II central rate
(daily data; percentage deviation; 24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; central rate = 100; April 2000-April 2010)
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2008
2009
120
110
100
90
80
120
140
140
110
100
90
80
70
70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) deviation from the central rate implies that the currency is on the strong (weak) side of the band. For the
Latvian lats, the
fl
uctuation band is Âą 15%.
129
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Convergence Report
May 2010
L A T V I A
Table 10
Latvian lats: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
10.8
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
-7.3
Real effective exchange rate
1),
2)
9.1
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-4.3
-7.1
-6.4
-7.5
-11.8
-11.2
-21.3
-20.4
-11.5
11.8
Current account balance
-4.8
-7.6
-6.7
-8.2
-12.8
-12.5
-22.5
-22.3
-13.0
9.4
Goods balance
-13.4
-16.1
-15.8
-17.8
-20.2
-18.9
-25.6
-23.9
-17.6
-6.5
Services balance
5.9
6.1
5.8
5.2
4.4
3.8
3.3
3.5
4.0
6.2
Income balance
0.2
0.7
0.6
-0.2
-2.0
-1.1
-2.7
-3.2
-1.6
6.4
Current transfers balance
2.5
1.7
2.8
4.7
5.0
3.7
2.4
1.3
2.2
3.3
Capital account balance
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.2
2.0
1.5
2.4
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
0.9
3.0
0.5
0.3
5.4
2.8
7.6
4.4
4.1
1.9
Direct investment balance
5.1
1.4
2.7
2.3
3.8
3.6
7.5
6.8
3.0
0.4
Portfolio investment balance
-4.2
1.6
-2.2
-2.0
1.6
-0.8
0.2
-2.3
1.1
1.5
Other investment balance
4.2
7.8
6.5
7.8
9.5
14.0
22.6
19.3
7.5
-11.2
Reserve assets
0.1
-3.7
0.0
-0.6
-2.9
-3.2
-9.9
-3.4
2.0
-4.9
Exports of goods and services
41.2
41.2
40.5
41.7
43.6
47.0
43.9
41.3
41.5
41.9
Imports of goods and services
48.7
51.2
50.6
54.4
59.4
62.1
66.2
61.8
55.1
42.3
Net international investment position
2)
-30.0
-37.1
-40.9
-43.7
-52.2
-59.2
-69.6
-74.4
-78.1
-81.3
Gross external debt
2)
61.4
68.1
72.7
79.5
93.3
99.4
114.0
127.6
128.5
154.7
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports of goods
31.5
30.9
30.2
30.3
27.9
25.2
23.9
21.5
21.6
21.7
Imports of goods
40.3
40.9
41.8
40.1
37.4
34.9
36.1
36.4
33.7
32.0
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
22.6
26.7
29.2
30.7
33.9
31.2
31.0
33.1
32.8
34.1
Outward direct investment
1)
6.4
22.0
24.0
22.7
12.6
8.9
10.2
16.2
9.2
15.4
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
56.0
62.7
67.8
87.7
81.4
75.5
61.8
55.4
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.2
9.6
18.1
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports of goods
80.7
78.6
77.8
79.4
77.3
76.5
72.5
72.5
68.6
67.4
Imports of goods
74.3
76.0
77.5
75.6
75.7
75.3
76.5
77.4
75.5
75.0
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
130
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Convergence Report
May 2010
4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
13.8 13.8 13.6 10.5 12.7
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.5
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
8.1 9.1 7.3 9.5 11.4 16.5 12.8 10.0 5.0 7.0
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
19.0 26.0 32.1 39.8 50.3 67.8 87.0 88.3 89.6
102.0
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
6.2 7.4 11.0 11.5 12.8 15.9 15.0
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2008
2002 2003
2005
2007
2009
2001
2004
2006
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2002
2001
2003
2005
2005
2009
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2004
2006
2008
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
131
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May 2010
L I T H U A N I A
5.5 LITHUANIA
5.5.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Lithuania was 2.0%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability (see Table 1). On the basis of the
most recent information, the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation is expected to decline in
the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation was subdued in the early 2000s,
fl
uctuating around 1%, before turning negative
in 2003 owing to a combination of country-
speci
fi
c factors.
10
The subdued rates of in
fl
ation
early in the decade initially re
fl
ected the effects
of the Russian crisis, but later also a number of
more country-speci
fi
c effects related, for
example, to the effective appreciation of the
litas. In
fl
ation picked up subsequently and
increased gradually in the mid-2000s, before
accelerating signi
fi
cantly in 2007 and 2008
(see Chart 1). The 2004 increase in in
fl
ation was
due mainly to a harmonisation of excise duties
on fuel and tobacco following Lithuaniaâs
accession to the Union, the fading impact on
import prices of the earlier appreciation of the
litas and higher commodity prices. The further
acceleration in in
fl
ation in 2007 and 2008 was
due to a combination of factors, including higher
energy and food prices, as well as an increasingly
tight labour market and very strong demand
growth, re
fl
ecting an overheating economy.
However, as these macroeconomic developments
proved unsustainable, the Lithuanian economy
experienced a severe contraction. After peaking
at 11.1% in 2008, in
fl
ation fell sharply to 4.2%
in 2009.
Economic and monetary policy choices have
played an important role in shaping in
fl
ation
developments over the past decade. The
subdued rates of in
fl
ation in the early 2000s
re
fl
ected, in particular, the orientation of
monetary policy towards the achievement of
price stability, which is the primary objective,
as enshrined in the central bank law. In 1994
Lietuvos bankas adopted a currency board
arrangement, with the litas being
fi
rst pegged
to the US dollar and then re-pegged to the euro
in 2002. In June 2004 Lithuania joined ERM II,
with its existing currency board arrangement
remaining in place as a unilateral commitment.
The subdued in
fl
ation rates up to 2003 were also
supported by
fi
scal policy reforms designed to
enhance product market competition and labour
market reforms. During the following boom
years, however, the countryâs monetary policy
was constrained by the currency board, and the
overall policy stance (including
fi
scal policy)
was not tight enough to counter the growing
signs of overheating.
In
fl
ation developments over the past ten years
should be viewed against the background of
very robust real GDP growth in most years,
which has been followed more recently by a
pronounced turnaround in the economic cycle,
owing to a build-up and subsequent correction
of signi
fi
cant macroeconomic imbalances and
vulnerabilities. The very strong economic
expansion during the boom years was fuelled by
rapid wage increases, a surge in capital in
fl
ows
and extremely strong credit growth (supported,
inter alia, by low, and at times negative, real
interest rates), which averaged at approximately
50% per year during the peak years from 2003
to 2007. Rapid wage growth, which consistently
exceeded gains in labour productivity, led to a
deterioration in competitiveness. The domestic
demand and asset price boom came to an end
in 2008, reinforced by weakening external
demand and the impact of the global
fi
nancial
and economic crisis. Real GDP declined by
15% in 2009, after an increase of 2.8% in 2008
(see Table 2). Unemployment rose rapidly,
reaching 15.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Although there were some tentative signs of
macroeconomic stabilisation in the course of
2009, weak labour market conditions, tight
lending conditions and subdued domestic
con
fi
dence dampened economic activity. Wages
declined, with compensation per employee in
See the ECBâs Convergence Report 2004 for details.
10
132
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
the fourth quarter of 2009 standing at 14.7%
below the level a year earlier. Unit labour costs
also fell, though to a lesser extent than wages,
as there was a decline in labour productivity.
The impact on in
fl
ation in 2009 of the decline
in domestic demand was reinforced by a fall in
commodity and food prices, which had peaked
in 2008. The acceleration and subsequent
decline in in
fl
ation over the past decade is also
apparent from other relevant price indices, such
as the HICP excluding unprocessed food and
energy (see Table 2). House prices have declined
signi
fi
cantly and currently stand around 40%
below their peak level reached in early 2008.
Looking at recent developments, the annual
rate of HICP in
fl
ation turned negative in
January 2010, standing at -0.4% in March
(see Table 3a). Although the recent trend in the
in
fl
ation rate has been downward, a key upward
effect came from the increase in electricity prices
in January. This increase amounted to around
33% on a monthly basis, owing to the closure of
a nuclear power plant on 31 December 2009. The
changes in indirect taxes (VAT and excise duties)
that were introduced in 2009 have also had an
upward impact on prices, with the contribution
of administered prices to total HICP in
fl
ation
estimated to have been 2.0 percentage points in
the same year. The share of administered prices
in Lithuaniaâs HICP basket amounts to 12.6%.
The current in
fl
ation picture needs to be viewed
against the background of a strong retrenchment
in domestic spending. In addition, the marked
decrease in in
fl
ation in Lithuania in 2009 also
re
fl
ects the relatively strong impact of lower
energy and food prices over that year. Real GDP
was 12.8% below its level of a year earlier in
the fourth quarter of 2009, although there were
some signs of stabilisation in the export-oriented
sectors of the economy.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
-1.2% to 0.4% for 2010 and from -1.0% to
1.4% for 2011 (see Table 3b). The main factor
dampening in
fl
ation in 2010 is likely to remain
the ongoing contraction in domestic demand.
The current lack of in
fl
ationary pressures in
the Lithuanian economy re
fl
ects the adjustment
process necessary for an economy with a
fi
xed
exchange rate to restore accumulated losses
in competitiveness. The decline in prices is
expected to come to an end as macroeconomic
conditions stabilise later during the forecast
period. On the upside, risks to the in
fl
ation
outlook stem from potential further increases
in indirect taxes and global commodity prices.
On the downside, the decline in prices could
be larger or more protracted than currently
envisaged if economic activity recovers more
slowly or later than presently expected.
Looking further ahead, once the adjustment
phase is over, maintaining low in
fl
ation rates
in Lithuania will be very challenging, given
the limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy. The catching-up process is also likely
to have a bearing on in
fl
ation over the coming
years, given that GDP per capita and price
levels are still lower in Lithuania than in the
euro area (see Table 2). However, it is dif
fi
cult
to assess the exact size of the in
fl
ation effect
resulting from this catching-up process. Once
output growth resumes, with a
fi
xed exchange
rate regime, the underlying real exchange rate
appreciation trend is likely to manifest itself in
higher in
fl
ation. In the context of this process
of ongoing convergence, it cannot be ruled out
that signi
fi
cant demand pressure may emerge
again. Given the currency board arrangement
and the limitations of alternative counter-
cyclical policy instruments, it may be dif
fi
cult to
prevent macroeconomic imbalances, including
high rates of in
fl
ation, from building up again.
The experience with the strong growth over the
past few years highlights the challenges that the
Lithuanian authorities face in achieving price
stability in the virtual absence of independent
monetary policy.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Lithuania requires
the conduct of economic policies geared towards
ensuring overall macroeconomic stability,
including sustainable price stability. Given
the limited room for manoeuvre for monetary
policy under the currency board arrangement,
133
ECB
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May 2010
L I T H U A N I A
it is imperative that other policy areas provide
the economy with the wherewithal to cope
with country-speci
fi
c shocks and to avoid the
reoccurrence of macroeconomic imbalances.
More speci
fi
cally, it is
fi
rst of all necessary for
Lithuania to continue with the comprehensive
fi
scal consolidation path in line with the
requirements under the EDP. As regards labour
markets, it is particularly important to avoid a
signi
fi
cant increase in structural unemployment
or a decline in the participation rate. Moreover,
further wage restraint is needed to ensure that
Lithuaniaâs competitive position vis-Ă -vis the
euro area is not undermined. Furthermore, it is
essential to implement further structural reform
measures, focusing, for example, on improving
the business environment. Such reforms may also
help to attract more foreign direct investment,
which could strengthen the competitive position
of the tradable sector. Finally, con
fi
dence in the
soundness of the
fi
nancial sector needs to be
strengthened further. Financial sector policies
should also be geared towards preventing
excessive credit growth in the future. Given the
potential
fi
nancial stability risks associated with
the high shares of foreign currency-denominated
loans in Lithuania, the introduction of concrete
macro-prudential measures to reduce the
underlying vulnerabilities related to foreign
currency lending is desirable, for which close
cooperation between home and host country
supervisory authorities is warranted. Progress in
these areas will help to achieve an environment
conducive to sustainable price stability, as
well as to promote competitiveness and
employment growth.
5.5.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Lithuania is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit
of 8.9% of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the
3% reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 29.3%, i.e. well below the
60% reference value (see Table 4). Compared
with the previous year, the de
fi
cit ratio increased
by 5.6 percentage points and the government
debt ratio increased by 13.7 percentage points.
In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is forecast by the
European Commission to decline to 8.4%,
while the government debt ratio is projected to
increase to 38.6%. With regard to other
fi
scal
factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the ratio
of public investment to GDP in 2009 and is
expected to do so also in 2010.
Looking at developments in Lithuaniaâs
budgetary position over the period 2000 to 2009,
the de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio gradually declined
until 2006 and sharply increased thereafter
(see Table 5 and Chart 2a). Starting from a level
of 3.2% of GDP in 2000, the de
fi
cit ratio declined
to 1.0% of GDP in 2007, but rose again sharply
in 2008 and 2009. Against the background of
the rise in the budget de
fi
cit above the reference
value in 2008, the ECOFIN Council decided on
7 July 2009 that an excessive de
fi
cit situation
existed in Lithuania and set the deadline for
correcting it at 2011. In the light of the severe
recession and signi
fi
cant consolidation measures
implemented in 2009, on 12 February 2010
the ECOFIN Council postponed this deadline to
2012. As is shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
European Commission estimates indicate that
cyclical factors had an overall positive impact
on the budget balance before 2008. Non-cyclical
factors tended to contribute to an increase in the
budget de
fi
cit between 2007 and 2008. In addition
to temporary and one-off factors between 2007
and 2009, these developments in the factors
underlying the change in the budget de
fi
cit
ahead of the
fi
nancial and economic crisis seem
to re
fl
ect a lasting deterioration in Lithuaniaâs
structural budgetary position, which is measured
as the cyclically adjusted budget balance net of
one-off and temporary measures. In its response
to the economic crisis, the Lithuanian government
implemented signi
fi
cant
consolidation
measures in order to reduce the existing
fi
scal
imbalance. These measures focused on bringing
public spending to more sustainable levels,
increasing tax compliance and strengthening
fi
scal institutions. Assessing how Lithuaniaâs
structural budgetary position changed during the
134
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
crisis is, however, particularly dif
fi
cult in view
of uncertainty over the level and growth rate of
potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2009 the
debt-to-GDP ratio increased cumulatively
by 5.6 percentage points (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). As shown in greater detail in
Chart 3b, primary de
fi
cits contributed to these
developments, particularly in 2008 and 2009.
The impact of de
fi
cit-debt adjustments was
volatile, with both debt-increasing and debt-
decreasing effects in individual years (see
Table 7). The growth/interest rate differential
had a dampening effect on the debt ratio
between 2003 and 2008, but a debt-increasing
effect in 2009. In 2009 the general government
debt-to-GDP ratio increased strongly in a
deteriorating macroeconomic environment,
re
fl
ecting a high primary de
fi
cit and a negative
growth/interest rate differential.
As regards Lithuaniaâs general government debt
structure, the share of government debt with
a short-term maturity was rather volatile and
fi
rst increased from 6.8% in 2003 to 10.6% in
2005, then declined sharply to 2.3% in 2006
before rising to 7.9% in 2008 and declining to
4.4% in 2009 (see Table 6). Taking into account
the level of the debt ratio,
fi
scal balances are
relatively insensitive to changes in interest rates.
At the same time, the proportion of foreign
currency-denominated government debt is high
(91.6% in 2009); however, it is to a large extent
denominated in euro, the anchor currency of
Lithuaniaâs currency board arrangement. This
leaves
fi
scal balances relatively insensitive
to changes in exchange rates other than the
euro/litas exchange rate. During the
fi
nancial
and economic crisis the share of debt with a
short-term maturity and that of debt denominated
in euro and other foreign currencies rose,
pointing to a rise in debt-related vulnerabilities.
At the same time, the Lithuanian government has
not incurred contingent liabilities resulting from
government interventions to support
fi
nancial
institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
crisis (see the statistical section).
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure-to-GDP
ratio decreased from 39.1% in 2000 to 37.4% in
2008, but increased to 43.0% in 2009. During
the period under consideration, the increase in
the social bene
fi
ts-to-GDP ratio was the main
factor contributing to the higher expenditure
ratio. Total government revenue declined by
1.8 percentage points, standing at 34.1% of
GDP in 2009. Overall, the development in total
revenues re
fl
ects the increases in social security
contributions as well as declines in direct and
indirect taxes and other current revenue.
Looking ahead, Lithuaniaâs medium-term
fi
scal
policy strategy, as presented in the 2009-12
update of the convergence programme (dated
February 2010 and thus preceding the European
Commission forecasts shown in Table 4),
envisages a gradual decline in the de
fi
cit ratio,
bringing it to the 3% reference value in 2012.
According to this
fi
scal strategy, for 2010 the
Lithuanian government is planning for a reduction
of the de
fi
cit to 8.1%. At the same time, until
and including 2012, the structural de
fi
cit will
be above the medium-term objective (speci
fi
ed
in line with the Stability and Growth Pact),
which has been newly quanti
fi
ed in the
convergence programme as a structural surplus
of 0.5% of GDP. This new medium-term
budgetary objective is more demanding than that
previously targeted (i.e. a structural de
fi
cit of 1%
of GDP). While total revenues are projected to
remain broadly unchanged as a share of GDP,
the total expenditure ratio is expected to decline
signi
fi
cantly as a result of the expenditure-based
consolidation strategy. On the revenue side, it
re
fl
ects, inter alia, an increase in indirect taxes
which is broadly compensated for by a decline
in direct taxes. On the expenditure side, it
re
fl
ects, inter alia, a reduction in public employee
compensation and lower social payments.
Moreover, the government gross debt ratio is
expected to increase to 41.0% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on Lithuaniaâs
public
fi
nances over the long term, as highlighted
in Table 8, a marked ageing of the population
135
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
L I T H U A N I A
is expected. According to the 2009 projections
by the European Commission and the EUâs
Economic Policy Committee, starting from a
level of 15.1% of GDP in 2010, Lithuania is
likely to experience a signi
fi
cant increase in
age-related public expenditure amounting to
6.1 percentage points of GDP in the years
to 2060.
11
This re
fl
ects in part the implementation
of pension reforms in the 1990s, which
established a second, privately funded pension
pillar. However, ongoing vigilance is required,
as actual demographic and economic
developments may turn out to be less favourable
than assumed in the projections. In the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Lithuania is assessed to be at high risk
with regard to the sustainability of its public
fi
nances.
13
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, Lithuania must
bring its budget de
fi
cit below the 3% reference
value by 2012 in line with the EDP commitments.
This requires the continued implementation
of the comprehensive expenditure-based
consolidation strategy. Lithuaniaâs
fi
scal policy
strategy should be embedded in a strengthened
fi
scal framework with enhanced
fi
scal
governance and enforceable expenditure ceilings
which contribute to avoiding pro-cyclical
fi
scal
policies in the future.
5.5.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
The Lithuanian litas has been participating
in ERM II with effect from 28 June 2004,
i.e. for the entire two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010 (see Table 9a).
At the time of ERM II entry, Lithuania joined
the exchange rate mechanism with its existing
currency board arrangement in place, as
a unilateral commitment, thus placing no
additional obligation on the ECB. A standard
fl
uctuation band of Âą15% was adopted around
the central rate of 3.45280 litas per euro. The
agreement on participation in ERM II was
based on a number of policy commitments by
the Lithuanian authorities, relating to, inter
alia, pursuing sound
fi
scal policies, containing
credit growth to ensure the sustainability of
the current account position and implementing
further structural reforms. Over the period under
review, the litas continued to be stable and
did not exhibit any deviation from its central
rate against the euro in ERM II, re
fl
ecting the
unchanged Lithuanian exchange rate policy
under the currency board regime (see Chart 5
and Table 9a). Within ERM II, Lithuania has
not devalued its currencyâs central rate against
the euro on its own initiative. As implied by
the currency board regime, Lietuvos bankas
has continued to be regularly active in the
foreign exchange market. Overall, its sales and
purchases of foreign currency over the period
under review resulted in a net sale.
Short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR increased substantially,
from 0.3 percentage point in the three-month
period ending in April 2008 to 7.2 percentage
points in August 2009, on account of an
unfavourable outlook for Lithuaniaâs economy,
which was re
fl
ected in several downgrades of
Lithuaniaâs sovereign credit rating by rating
agencies, and the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. In the second half of 2009, the spread
started to decline and stood at 1.7 percentage
points in the three-month period ending in
March 2010 (see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Lithuanian litas stood
somewhat above its ten-year historical averages,
both bilaterally against the euro and in effective
terms (see Table 10). However, these measures
should be interpreted with caution, as in this period
Lithuania was subject to a process of economic
convergence, which complicates any historical
assessment of real exchange rate developments.
As regards other external developments,
Lithuania reported a large average de
fi
cit of
7.4% of GDP in the combined current and capital
account of its balance of payments between
2000 and 2008. After doubling from 6.4% of GDP
â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
11
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
12
136
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
in 2004 to 12.8% in 2007, the de
fi
cit decreased
to 10.1% of GDP in 2008. While high current
and capital account de
fi
cits may have been
partly associated with the catching-up process
of an economy such as Lithuaniaâs, de
fi
cits of
such magnitude have raised concerns about their
sustainability. Indeed, the need to correct these
large de
fi
cits was obvious at the beginning of
the far-reaching adjustment process Lithuania
had to undergo following the overheating period.
After a strong fall in domestic demand, which
led to lower imports, the current and capital
account balance turned into a surplus of 7.2%
of GDP in 2009. This sudden adjustment was
predominantly driven by a sharp reduction in the
goods de
fi
cit. In addition, the income balance
moved to a slightly positive surplus and the
surpluses on current transfers and services rose.
The shifts recorded in the balance of payments
of Lithuania over the past two years have been
associated with a sharp reversal of capital
fl
ows,
against the background of the global
fi
nancial and
economic crisis. From a
fi
nancing perspective,
net in
fl
ows of direct investment contributed
strongly to the
fi
nancing of Lithuaniaâs external
de
fi
cit. They decreased substantially in 2009,
in line with the current and capital account balance
reversal. Between 2005 and 2008 the additional
fi
nancing needs were, on average, mostly met
by very large in
fl
ows in other investment,
primarily in the form of bank loans. In 2009
âother investmentâ reported sizeable out
fl
ows.
Against this background, gross external debt
increased from 42.5% of GDP in 2000 to 71.6%
in 2008 and 86.2% in 2009. At the same time
Lithuaniaâs net international investment position
deteriorated substantially from -35.1% of GDP
in 2000 to -52.2% and -58.7% in 2008 and 2009
respectively. Lithuania is a small open economy,
although the ratio of foreign trade in goods and
services to GDP contracted strongly, from 60.2%
in 2008 to 54.2% in 2009 for exports and from
71.1% in 2008 to 54.9% in 2009 for imports
(see Table 11). With the normalisation of
global
fi
nancial market conditions, reaching and
maintaining a sustainable long-term external
position will depend on the implementation of
the appropriate domestic economic policies.
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods
to the euro area constituted 26.6% of total
exports, whereas the corresponding
fi
gure for
imports was higher at 30.1%. The share of euro
area countries in Lithuaniaâs inward direct
investment stood at 33.4% in 2009 and that in
its portfolio investment liabilities at 72.4% in
2008. The share of Lithuaniaâs assets invested
in the euro area amounted to 28.3% in the case
of direct investment in 2009 and 57.0% for
portfolio investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
With regard to the ful
fi
lment of the commitments
made by the Lithuanian authorities upon
ERM II entry, the following observations can
be made. Fiscal policies since ERM II entry
have not been suf
fi
ciently tight to contain
the emergence of signi
fi
cant macroeconomic
imbalances. As a consequence, since 2009,
against the background of a notable deterioration
in the general government budgetary position
and a sharp output adjustment, comprehensive
fi
scal consolidation measures to contain a
further deterioration of the budget balance have
had to be implemented. Efforts to reduce wage
growth were largely ineffective after ERM II
entry. The adjustment of the unsustainable
dynamics in wages materialised only in 2009,
when the economy experienced a severe
contraction. After ERM II entry, reserve and
prudential requirements were tightened to help
to contain rapid credit growth. Even so, credit
growth was excessive until 2008, when an
adjustment started to take place following the
severe deterioration in the economic outlook
in Lithuania and the reassessment of risks
prompted by the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. However, borrowing in foreign currency
(almost exclusively euro) has continued in
recent years, increasing the unhedged exposure
of domestic agents to exchange rate risk.
As regards structural reforms, Lithuania has
implemented a number of structural reforms to
enhance the
fl
exibility of the labour market and
to prepare for the impact of population ageing.
However, more needs to be done to restore
competitiveness and support the reallocation of
137
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
L I T H U A N I A
resources from the non-tradable to the tradable
sector.
5.5.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 long-term interest rates in Lithuania
were 12.1% on average and thus considerably
above the 6.0% reference value for the interest
rate convergence criterion (see Table 13).
Long-term interest rates followed a downward
trend from 2001 until 2006 (see Chart 6a).
13
At the beginning of 2006 this trend reversed and
long-term interest rates increased. The
international
fi
nancial crisis, market tensions,
downgrading of credit ratings and declining
liquidity affected markets negatively in 2008,
and the long-term government bond yields
picked up rapidly. In February 2009 the
long-term interest rates reached a plateau of
14.5% and stayed at that level until
December 2009 as no trading took place. Since
then, there has been some trading in the
secondary markets, and the yields declined
swiftly, standing at 5.2% at the end of the
reference period. However, the assessment of
long-term interest rates requires caution as the
liquidity of the secondary market during the
reference period was very low and the
signalling quality of the yields was affected as
the bondâs maturity was shorter than ten years.
The differential between Lithuaniaâs long-term
interest rate and the euro area average declined
very rapidly until 2002 and thereafter the spread
remained low until 2008 (see Chart 6b). The
main factors underlying the initial narrowing of
the differential were the positive development
of the Lithuanian economy and Lithuaniaâs
smooth participation in the ERM II mechanism,
with the existing currency board arrangement
remaining in place. However, a turning point
came towards the end of 2008, when the spread
started to rise sharply amid the global
fi
nancial
market turmoil, declining appetite for risk among
investors, the downgrading of the credit ratings,
decreasing liquidity, and the remaining domestic
macroeconomic imbalances. In January 2009
the interest rate differential between Lithuania
and the euro area widened to approximately
10 percentage points, although it then narrowed to
1.5 percentage points at the beginning of 2010.
At the end of 2009 the Lithuanian capital market
was smaller and much less developed than that
of the euro area. The stock market capitalisation
was 12.0% of GDP in 2009 and thus similar to
other countries in the region (see Table 14). The
corporate sectorâs market-based indebtedness
(4.1% of GDP in 2009) has increased, but is
still very low in comparison with the euro area.
Banks play a dominant role in the economy
of Lithuania, and foreign-owned banks play a
major role in the banking market. During the
past ten years, the value of outstanding bank
credit to the private sector as a percentage of
GDP has increased six-fold and in 2009 stood
at 69.0%. This is still, however, around half of
the euro area level. The majority of the loans
to the private sector are in foreign currencies.
The international claims of euro area banks
in the country accounted for 13.6% of total
liabilities in 2009.
Data on the reference long-term interest rate for Lithuania are
13
available only from 2001 onwards. The developments should
be interpreted with caution as long-term interest rate statistics in
Lithuania have been compiled using primary market data until
October 2007.
139
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
L I T H U A N I A
LITHUANIA
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
1 4 0
Chart 1
Price developments
1 4 0
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
1 4 0
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
1 4 1
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
1 4 1
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
1 4 1
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
1 4 2
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
1 4 2
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
1 4 3
(a) Levels
1 4 3
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
1 4 3
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
1 4 3
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
1 4 4
(a) Levels
1 4 4
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
1 4 4
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
1 4 4
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
1 4 5
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
1 4 5
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
1 4 6
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Lithuanian litas
1 4 6
Chart 5
Lithuanian litas: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
1 4 6
(a) Deviation from ERM II
central rate
1 4 6
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
1 4 6
Table 10 Lithuanian litas: real
exchange rate developments
1 4 7
Table 11 External developments
1 4 7
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
1 4 7
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
1 4 8
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
1 4 8
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
1 4 8
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
1 4 8
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
140
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Chart 1
Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
1.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
2.0
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
1.1 1.6 0.3 -1.1 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8
11.1 4.2
HICP
excluding
unprocessed
food
and
energy
-1.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3 2.4 5.2 9.3 3.7
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
0.5 2.5 3.8 5.5
10.1 0.2
CPI
1.0 1.4 0.3 -1.1 1.2 2.7 3.7 5.7
10.9 4.5
Private consumption de
fl
ator
-1.7 2.4 -0.1 -0.9 -0.3 1.7 4.0 6.4 9.7 4.5
GDP de
fl
ator
0.9 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 2.5 6.6 6.5 8.5 9.7
-2.3
Producer prices
2)
10.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 2.5 5.9 6.9 9.4
15.9
-6.6
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
3.3 6.7 6.9
10.2 7.4 7.8 7.8 9.8 2.8
-15.0
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
34.9 37.0 39.6 44.4 46.2 48.3 50.6 54.3 57.1
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
52.5
53.8
53.9
50.8
51.9
53.7
56.2
59.1
62.1
-
Output gap
4)
-5.8 -3.3 -1.6 2.5 3.4 4.7 6.2
10.1 9.0
-8.2
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
16.4 16.5 13.5 12.5 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.3 5.8 13.7
Unit
labour
costs,
whole
economy
-7.7 -3.5 1.8 1.0 3.3 6.0
10.1 6.5 9.3 1.2
Compensation per employee, whole economy
-0.7
7.1
5.0
8.9
10.9
11.5
16.7
13.9
12.9
-7.5
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
7.5
11.0 3.1 7.8 7.4 5.2 5.9 6.9 3.3
-8.7
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
4.1 -2.0 -3.9 -3.3 -0.6 7.9 8.3 4.8 8.4
-10.5
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
11.4 3.1 4.4 4.8 1.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 0.6 2.8
Money
supply
(M3)
17.0 21.5 19.5 19.4 25.9 30.6 22.9 22.4 -0.3 0.5
Lending
from
banks
-5.8 24.6 29.7 53.0 40.5 63.6 41.4 43.5 18.2 -8.4
Stock prices (OMX Vilnius Index)
-7.3
-18.5
12.2 105.8
68.2
52.9
9.8
4.4
-65.1
46.0
Residential
property
prices
-9.7 23.8 9.5 18.1 9.9 51.7 39.2 33.5 5.2
-31.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
141
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L I T H U A N I A
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
1.3
1.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-0.6
-1.1
0.1
1.0
2.4
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.6
-0.4
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
-0.1
1.4
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1)
-
-
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
-1.2
-1.0
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
0.4
1.1
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
1) Lithuania is not an OECD member.
142
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May 2010
2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008 2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.3
-8.9
-8.4
Reference value
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
1.7 -5.0
-
3.8
General government gross debt
15.6
29.3
38.6
Reference value
60.0
60.0
60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
35.9 33.2 32.9 31.9 31.8 32.8 33.1 33.8 34.2 34.1
Current
revenue
35.8 33.1 32.4 31.5 31.3 32.0 32.1 32.3 33.0 32.5
Direct
taxes
8.4 7.8 7.5 8.0 8.7 9.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 6.0
Indirect
taxes
12.6 12.2 12.4 11.7 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.3
Social
security
contributions
9.4 9.0 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.4
12.0
Other
current
revenue
5.4 4.1 3.8 3.3 2.9 3.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.2
Capital
revenue
0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.7
Total expenditure
39.1 36.8 34.7 33.2 33.3 33.3 33.6 34.8 37.4 43.0
Current
expenditure
34.2 32.4 30.7 29.7 29.3 29.6 29.1 28.7 32.0 38.6
Compensation
of
employees
12.1 11.7 11.4 10.8 10.8 10.3 10.4 9.9 10.8 12.7
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
10.7
10.5 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.6 8.5 9.1
11.0
15.0
Interest
payable
1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
current
expenditure
9.7 8.6 8.8 8.5 8.5 9.9 9.4 9.0 9.5 9.8
Capital
expenditure
4.8 4.4 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.8 4.5 6.1 5.5 4.5
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.2 -3.6 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -3.3 -8.9
Primary
balance
-1.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -2.6 -7.9
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
-0.8 -1.3 1.0 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.7 4.2 1.7 -5.0
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
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L I T H U A N I A
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
23.7 23.1 22.3 21.1 19.4 18.4 18.0 16.9 15.6 29.3
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
25.9 25.4 32.7 33.0 29.1 29.3 19.4 16.8 17.6 8.4
In
foreign
currencies
74.1 74.6 67.3 67.0 70.9 70.7 80.6 83.2 82.4 91.6
Euro
1)
40.6 43.3 53.7 56.4 65.4 68.7 79.4 83.2 82.4 77.4
Other
foreign
currencies
33.5
31.3
13.5
10.6 5.5 1.9 1.2 0.0 0.0
14.2
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
32.1 34.5 39.3 39.6 39.2 39.7 31.6 32.8 35.8 29.7
Average residual maturity
(in
years)
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term
(up
to
and
including
one
year)
10.2 5.3 5.3 6.8 5.5
10.6 2.3 2.5 7.9 4.4
Medium
and
long-term
(over
one
year) 89.8 94.7 94.7 93.2 94.5 89.4 97.7 97.5 92.1 95.6
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-10
-5
0
-10
-5
0
2000
levels
2002
2004
2006
2008
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2000
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
2002
2004
2006
2008
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
144
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
Chart 4
General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
total expenditure
total revenue
Source: ESCB.
Chart 3
General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
15
20
25
30
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
145
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May 2010
L I T H U A N I A
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Change in general government debt
1)
1.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.6 2.0 1.8 0.6
10.5
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
-3.2 -3.6 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -3.3 -8.9
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-1.3 -2.8 -1.1 -0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.6 0.8 -2.7 1.6
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
0.6 -1.4 0.4 -0.8 -1.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 -2.0 2.0
Currency
and
deposits
1.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 -0.5 0.5 3.0
-0.1 -2.3 2.7
Loans and securities other than shares
0.9
-1.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
Shares and other equity
-1.7
-1.0
-0.6
-1.6
-0.6
-0.3
-2.8
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
Privatisations
-1.7 -1.0 -0.6 -1.6 -0.6 -0.3 -2.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.8
Equity
injections
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
fi
nancial
assets
0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.2
Valuation changes of general government debt
-0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Other valuation effects
2)
0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2
Other changes in general government debt
3)
-1.2 -0.6 -0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.5 1.3
-0.1 -0.8
-0.6
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
23.0
23.2
26.0
34.7
42.8
51.1
65.7
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
15.5
15.1
15.1
16.9
18.1
19.6
21.2
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
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May 2010
3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
Yes
Membership since
28 June 2004
ERM II central rate in LTL/EUR
3.45280
ERM II
fl
uctuation band
+/- 15%
Devaluation of bilateral central rate on countryâs own initiative
No
Maximum upward deviation
1)
0.0
Maximum downward deviation
1)
0.0
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations from ERM II central rate over the period 24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business
frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency is on the strong (weak) side of the band.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Lithuanian litas
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008
2009
2010
June Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec. Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
0.4 0.8 3.8 5.6 6.0 7.0 4.8 1.7
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
Chart 5
Lithuanian litas: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Deviation from ERM II central rate
(daily data; percentage deviation; 24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; central rate = 100; April 2000-April 2010)
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2008
2009
110
105
100
95
90
110
120
120
105
100
95
90
85
85
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) deviation from the central rate implies that the currency is on the strong (weak) side of the band. For the
Lithuanian litas, the
fl
uctuation band is +/- 15%.
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L I T H U A N I A
Table 10
Lithuanian litas: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
11.5
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
2.8
Real effective exchange rate
1),
2)
11.1
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-5.9 -4.7 -4.7 -6.4 -6.4 -5.8 -9.5
-12.8
-10.1 7.2
Current
account
balance
-5.9 -4.7 -5.1 -6.8 -7.7 -7.1
-10.6
-14.5
-11.9 3.8
Goods
balance
-9.7 -9.1 -9.3 -9.0
-10.6
-11.3
-13.9
-15.0
-12.0 -2.9
Services
balance
3.3 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.6 1.6 1.1 2.2
Income
balance
-1.7 -1.5 -1.2 -2.6 -2.7 -2.4 -2.7 -4.1 -3.3 0.4
Current
transfers
balance
2.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.3 4.1
Capital
account
balance
0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 3.4
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
5.6 5.8 5.1 2.2 3.2 1.6 4.3 2.9 2.9 2.9
Direct
investment
balance
3.3 3.6 5.0 0.8 2.3 2.6 5.1 3.6 3.2 0.4
Portfolio
investment
balance
2.3 2.2 0.1 1.5 0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 2.6
Other
investment
balance
0.3 0.3 1.7 6.3 1.8 7.0
11.1
13.0 5.0
-10.5
Reserve
assets
-1.1 -2.7 -3.1 -2.9 0.5 -2.7 -4.9 -3.0 2.4 0.2
Exports
of
goods
and
services
44.7 49.7 52.6 51.1 52.0 57.5 59.0 54.0 60.2 54.2
Imports
of
goods
and
services
51.0 55.1 58.2 56.8 59.0 64.7 69.3 67.4 71.1 54.9
Net international investment position
2)
-35.1
-34.6 -32.8 -33.3 -34.5 -42.8 -49.2 -56.1 -52.2 -58.7
Gross external debt
2)
42.5 43.3 39.4 40.4 42.3 50.7 60.2 71.9 71.6 86.2
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
32.3 26.9 27.2 28.5 30.7 28.6 25.3 25.5 23.1 26.6
Imports
of
goods
33.0 35.1 37.2 36.0 36.9 33.2 34.0 36.6 29.9 30.1
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
22.8 23.3 22.7 27.4 31.7 26.8 26.9 25.8 33.5 33.4
Outward direct investment
1)
11.5 5.9 5.8 23.8 11.4 7.2 7.5 10.0 17.7 28.3
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
57.6 63.7 77.5 87.4 95.2 85.7 80.2 72.4
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
-
-
- 61.1 45.9 61.5 60.2 57.0
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
74.8 73.3 69.3 62.8 67.2 65.7 63.6 64.8 60.3 64.3
Imports
of
goods
54.8 54.7 56.8 56.1 63.5 59.5 62.8 68.3 57.6 58.8
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
148
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May 2010
4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
9.1 8.2 7.2 5.2
12.1
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.3 3.6 4.0 4.1
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
12.1 7.4 9.0 16.7 26.2 33.2 32.2 24.1 8.1 12.0
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
10.9 13.1 15.8 22.3 28.3 40.6 49.7 59.7 62.6 69.0
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
-
14.3 15.4 15.1 12.3 14.2 13.6
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2002
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2004
2006
2008
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2002
2001
2005
2007
2009
2003
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2004
2006
2008
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
149
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May 2010
H U N G A R Y
5.6 HUNGARY
5.6.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Hungary was 4.8%, i.e. considerably
above the reference value of 1.0% for the
criterion on price stability (see Table 1).
On the basis of the most recent information,
the 12-month average rate of HICP in
fl
ation is
expected to increase in the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Hungary followed a broad
downward trend until 2005, which has since
reversed in part (see Chart 1). HICP in
fl
ation
declined from 14.2% in 1998 to 4.7% in 2003
and then accelerated again in 2004. It moderated
again to 3.5% in 2005, but, as a result of a wide
range of
fi
scal consolidation measures (including
administered price and indirect tax increases) it
accelerated signi
fi
cantly, peaking at 9% year
on year in March 2007. Thereafter in
fl
ation
started to recede, in line with the phasing-out of
one-off effects relating to
fi
scal consolidation
measures. However, successive commodity price
shocks and further changes in indirect taxes and
administered prices have meant that it has mostly
remained at elevated levels ever since.
These in
fl
ation developments re
fl
ect a number
of important policy choices, most notably the
orientation of monetary policy during the period
under review towards the achievement of price
stability, as enshrined in the central bank law.
In 2001 the monetary policy framework was
changed by introducing an in
fl
ation targeting
framework, widening the exchange rate band
from Âą2.5% to Âą15% around the euro as the
anchor currency, fully liberalising the capital
account and abolishing the crawling-peg regime.
The in
fl
ation targets have been changed a
number of times. Since 2007 the medium-term
in
fl
ation target has been 3%. In February 2008
the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, in agreement with
the Hungarian government, decided to abolish
the
fl
uctuation bands and adopt a
fl
oating
exchange rate regime. The process of disin
fl
ation
has been underpinned by the liberalisation of
product markets. Fiscal policy was expansionary
between 2001 and mid-2006, and therefore was
not supportive of achieving the in
fl
ation targets
during that period. Following the implementation
of successive
fi
scal consolidation packages since
mid-2006,
fi
scal policy also added to short-term
in
fl
ationary impulses through large increases in
administered prices and indirect taxes. The share
of administered prices in Hungaryâs HICP
basket is relatively high, standing at around
17.6% in 2010. Most recently public sector wage
constraints have been supportive of disin
fl
ation.
Although Hungary experienced robust growth
at the beginning of the 2000s, since the end
of 2006 in
fl
ation developments have taken
place against the background of a strong
economic slowdown (see Table 2), with real
GDP growth decelerating from 4.0% in 2006
to 0.6% in 2008. From the second quarter of
2008 this slowdown turned into a recession,
subsequently exacerbated by the impact of the
global economic and
fi
nancial crisis. In 2009
Hungary experienced a severe fall in GDP
of 6.3%. The large external
fi
nancing needs
of the Hungarian economy at the beginning
of the crisis made it necessary for Hungary
to be funded through the
fi
nancial assistance
programme led by the EU and the IMF that
was set up at the end of 2008. Unit labour cost
growth was very substantial at the beginning of
the 2000s, driven by strong compensation per
employee growth, and it decreased only slowly
during the early stages of the slowdown in the
course of Hungaryâs sizeable
fi
scal adjustment
process. Labour market adjustment, however,
has accelerated in more recent quarters, leading
to a strong moderation in overall unit labour
cost growth. Import prices have
fl
uctuated
substantially in recent years, largely re
fl
ecting
changes in both the effective exchange rate of
the forint and commodity prices. The general
pattern of in
fl
ation developments is also
apparent from other relevant indices, such as
the HICP excluding unprocessed food and
energy (see Table 2).
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Looking at recent developments, in
fl
ation was
broadly in line with the central bankâs in
fl
ation
target of 3% in the
fi
rst half of 2009. In the
second half of the year however, the sizeable
increase in indirect taxes pushed up the in
fl
ation
rate to around 5-6%. Towards the end of 2009
the increase in in
fl
ation also re
fl
ected base
effects, the increase in energy prices as well
as lagged effects of the depreciation of the
currency. In
fl
ation excluding food and energy
prices has been rather stable since the sizeable
VAT increase in July 2009. As a result of the
recessionary environment, the corporate sector
has had limited pricing power and the effects of
the sizeable indirect tax increase in July 2009
were not passed on to prices to the same extent
as in previous VAT hikes. Since the
fi
rst quarter
of 2009 the pace of decline in the Hungarian
economy has moderated noticeably, although
quarterly growth rates remained negative
throughout the year. The turn in the cycle was
mainly driven by an improvement in external
demand and a pick-up in investor sentiment,
while domestic consumption and credit growth
remained subdued.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
4.0% to 4.6% for 2010 and from 2.5% to
3.0% for 2011. In the
fi
rst half of 2010 the
base effect of earlier changes in VAT rates,
excise duties, administered prices and increases
in commodity prices are expected to keep
in
fl
ation at a level of around 5% to 6%. Annual
in
fl
ation is expected to decrease signi
fi
cantly
from the second half of 2010 onwards, when
the base effect of previous changes in indirect
taxes and administered prices drops out of the
index. Domestic demand is expected to recover
only slowly, owing to the ongoing balance
sheet adjustment of banks and households.
At the same time, a relatively high unemployment
rate is expected to have a dampening impact on
wage formation. Regarding risks to the in
fl
ation
outlook, on the upside, commodity prices may
rise more strongly than expected and the recent
temporary price shocks may have an impact
on in
fl
ation expectations, especially once the
recovery gains momentum. On the downside,
domestic demand may pick up at a slower
pace than expected. Looking further ahead,
the catching-up process is also likely to have
a bearing on in
fl
ation and/or on the nominal
exchange rate over the coming years, given that
GDP per capita and price levels are still lower
in Hungary than in the euro area (see Table 2).
However, it is dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size
of the effect resulting from this catching-up
process.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Hungary requires,
inter alia, a stability-oriented monetary policy,
and the strict implementation of the
fi
scal
consolidation path. It is particularly important
to focus on a sustainable cutback in expenditure,
in order to permanently reduce Hungaryâs public
debt-to-GDP ratio and ensure a further tangible
improvement in the countryâs
fi
scal performance
in line with its commitments under the
fi
nancial
assistance programme led by the EU and the IMF
and the requirements under the EDP. In order to
achieve these goals, it is essential for Hungary
to progress with reforms aimed at improving
the ef
fi
ciency of the public sector, including
the pension, health-care and social transfer
systems. Moreover, a streamlining of Hungaryâs
extensive network of local governments is of
paramount importance. In terms of product
market reforms, the liberalisation of network
industries should be completed. With regard to
the labour market, it is essential to strengthen
those measures aimed at preventing a signi
fi
cant
increase in structural unemployment or a decline
in the participation rate. These measures include
improving active labour market policies and
fl
exible work arrangements. Moreover, measures
should be taken to raise Hungaryâs relatively
low employment rate, for example by lowering
the high tax wedge on labour, avoiding high
minimum wages, increasing labour mobility and
ensuring that education responds more to market
demand. These policies could raise potential
growth and help contain wage pressures when the
economic recovery gains pace. Wage increases
should re
fl
ect labour productivity growth,
labour market conditions and developments in
competitor countries. Financial sector policies
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H U N G A R Y
should be geared towards preventing excessive
credit growth in the future. Given the potential
risks to
fi
nancial stability associated with the high
levels of foreign currency denominated loans in
Hungary, macro-prudential measures to reduce
the underlying vulnerabilities related to foreign
currency lending are essential, and warrant close
cooperation between home and host country
supervisory authorities. Such measures will
help to achieve an environment conducive to
sustainable price stability, as well as promote
competitiveness and employment growth.
5.6.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Hungary is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit
of 4.0% of GDP, i.e. well above the 3%
reference value. The general government gross
debt-to-GDP ratio was 78.3%, i.e. above the
60% reference value (see Table 4). Compared
with the previous year, the budget balance ratio
worsened by 0.2 percentage point and the public
debt ratio increased by 5.4 percentage points.
In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is forecast by the
European Commission to increase slightly to
4.1% and the government debt ratio is projected
to increase to 78.9%. With regard to other
fi
scal
factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the ratio
of public investment to GDP in 2009 and is
expected to do so also in 2010.
Looking at developments in Hungaryâs
budgetary position over the period 2000
to 2009, the de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio exhibited
a volatile pattern, reaching very high levels
until 2007 (see Chart 2a and Table 5). Starting
from 3.0% of GDP in 2000, the de
fi
cit
ratio rose to 9.3% of GDP in 2006. In 2007
it improved to 5.0% of GDP, re
fl
ecting
large revenue-raising and expenditure-reducing
consolidation measures. Following the
fi
nancial
and economic crisis, this policy required in
2008 a balance of payments support programme
jointly provided by the IMF and the European
Commission. Hungary has been subject to an
EU Council decision on the existence of an
excessive de
fi
cit since 2004. The deadline for
correction of the excessive de
fi
cit was extended
twice and is presently set for 2011 following
the Council recommendation of 7 July 2009.
As is shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
European Commission estimates indicate
that non-cyclical factors broadly determined
the volatile pattern of the general balance.
Such factors overall contributed to increasing
the budget de
fi
cit over the period 2001-06.
From 2007 onwards non-cyclical factors,
on account of comprehensive consolidation
measures, led to a sizeable reduction in the de
fi
cit
ratio. Available evidence suggests that temporary
measures had a small de
fi
cit-increasing impact
in most years over the period 2003-09, and
a larger impact in 2007. The remainder of the
non-cyclical changes in the budget balance, as
captured by changes in the structural balance,
are explained by permanent effects. They seem
to re
fl
ect a structural deterioration of Hungaryâs
fi
scal position until 2006 and a consolidation
thereafter. Overall, cyclical factors have made a
limited contribution to the change in the de
fi
cit
ratio, with the notable exception of 2009, when
they induced a large increase in the de
fi
cit ratio.
However, the assessment of how these factors
contributed to the change in Hungaryâs structural
balance during the crisis is particularly dif
fi
cult
in view of uncertainty over the level and growth
rate of potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
debt, between 2000 and 2009 the debt-to-GDP
ratio increased cumulatively by 23.3 percentage
points (see Chart 3a and Table 6). As shown
in greater detail in Chart 3b, primary de
fi
cits
were the major driving factor behind debt
developments between 2002 and 2007, while
de
fi
cit-debt adjustments and the growth/interest
rate differential played a less important role. Such
a pattern is indicative of the close link between
primary de
fi
cits and adverse debt dynamics
in Hungary before 2008. In 2008 and 2009,
the pattern reversed and the debt-to-GDP ratio
rose signi
fi
cantly as a result of the
fi
nancial
fl
ows received from the EU and IMF-led
fi
nancial assistance programme. Part of these
loans was used to
fi
nance two funds earmarked
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ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
for supporting the banking system during the
fi
nancial turmoil (see the statistical section).
As a consequence, the largest contribution to
the increase in debt came from the de
fi
cit-debt
adjustment factor, while the primary balance
had a slight debt-decreasing impact. The growth/
interest rate differential also contributed in both
years to an increase in the debt ratio.
As regards developments in Hungaryâs
general government debt structure, the share
of government debt with a short-term maturity
declined steadily from 21.7% in 2002 to 10.5%
in 2009 (see Table 6). Taking into account
the level of the debt ratio,
fi
scal balances are
relatively insensitive to changes in interest rates.
The proportion of government debt denominated
in foreign currency is, at 46.4%, high, and,
given the overall debt level,
fi
scal balances
are sensitive to changes in exchange rates.
The Hungarian government has not incurred
contingent liabilities resulting from government
interventions to support
fi
nancial institutions
and
fi
nancial markets during the crisis (see the
statistical section). The support granted to three
domestic credit institutions was in the form of
foreign exchange loans; repayment of part of
these loans started at the end of 2009 on account
of improved bank liquidity.
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure-to-GDP
ratio increased from 46.8% in 2000 to 49.8%
in 2009. This level is high in comparison with
other countries with a similar level of per capita
income and even compared with some of the
highly advanced economies. The pattern of
the expenditure ratio has been very volatile,
broadly re
fl
ecting the consecutive
fi
scal
expansion and consolidation periods. During
the period between 2000 and 2009, âsocial
bene
fi
tsâ, âcompensation of employeesâ and
âother current expenditureâ increased their
share in GDP, while âcapital expenditureâ and
âinterest paymentsâ recorded a decline. While
most expenditure components started declining
after 2006, âsocial bene
fi
tsâ continued to grow
in an environment of increasing unemployment
and recorded a strong and steady rise in their
share of GDP of around 3.5 percentage points
between 2000 and 2009. Government revenue in
relation to GDP has been, overall, less volatile,
increasing cumulatively by 2 percentage points
to 45.8% of GDP between 2000 and 2009.
Most of the increase in the revenue ratio took
place during the years 2007-08, when measures
to broaden the revenue base and raise certain tax
rates contributed, alongside expenditure cuts, to
the reduction of the de
fi
cit ratio. In the second
half of 2009 a tax restructuring reform was
implemented in consultation with the IMF and
the European Commission. It aimed to reduce
the tax burden on labour and corporate income
and increase indirect taxation, with hikes in the
VAT rate and excise duties.
Looking ahead, Hungaryâs medium-term
fi
scal
policy strategy, as presented in the 2009-12
update of the convergence programme (dated
January 2010 and thus preceding the European
Commission forecasts shown in Table 4),
envisages a gradual reduction in the de
fi
cit
ratio to below the 3% reference value in 2011
(2.8% of GDP), with a further decline in 2012
(to 2.5% of GDP). According to this
fi
scal
strategy, for 2010 the Hungarian government
is planning for a small reduction in the de
fi
cit
of 0.1 percentage point to 3.8% of GDP. At the
same time, until 2011 the structural de
fi
cit will
be above the medium-term objective (speci
fi
ed
in line with the Stability and Growth Pact),
quanti
fi
ed in the convergence programme
update as 1.5% of GDP. This medium-term
budgetary objective is 1 percentage point lower
than that targeted in the previous convergence
programme. The revenue-to-GDP ratio is
expected to steadily decline by the end of
the forecasting period, given the projected
macroeconomic structure (with growth in
the major tax bases falling behind that of
nominal GDP), as well as a further reduction
in the personal income tax burden in 2011.
As such, the projected
fi
scal consolidation for
2010 and beyond is focused on the expenditure
side. Following the pension reform which started
at end-2006 and was enhanced in 2009, as well
as the introduction of measures to better target
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H U N G A R Y
social support, social bene
fi
ts are expected
to decline as a share of GDP beyond 2010.
Compensation of employees, intermediate
consumption and subsidies are also projected to
decline as a share of GDP over the forecasting
period. Moreover, the government gross debt
ratio is expected to decline beyond 2010,
reaching 73.6% of GDP in 2012.
With regard to the
fi
scal prospects for Hungary,
which has a public debt ratio above 60% of GDP,
Chart 5 presents calculations of potential future
debt ratios using alternative assumptions for the
fi
scal balance. Assuming that Hungary achieves
the overall
fi
scal position and public debt ratio
projected by the European Commission for
2010, a balanced budget from 2011 onwards
would reduce public debt to below 60% of
GDP by 2016. Furthermore, a constant primary
balance ratio at its projected 2010 level of 0.8%
of GDP would reduce public debt to below
60% of GDP only by 2024. At the same time,
maintaining the overall de
fi
cit ratio at its 2010
level of 4.1% of GDP would result in a broadly
unchanged debt ratio. These calculations are
based on the assumption of a constant nominal
rate of interest of 4.4% (i.e. an average real cost
of public debt outstanding of 1.4% plus the 3%
in
fl
ation target). The real GDP growth rate is as
projected by the European Commission in its
spring 2010 forecast for 2010 and 2011. De
fi
cit-
debt adjustments are not taken into account.
While these calculations are purely illustrative
and can by no means be regarded as forecasts,
the indication that maintaining the overall
de
fi
cit ratio at the 2010 level would lead to a
non-diminishing debt ratio highlights the need
for further consolidation in addition to the
measures currently planned.
Turning to factors impacting on Hungaryâs
public
fi
nances over the long term, as highlighted
in Table 8, a steep ageing of the population is
expected. According to the 2009 projections by
the European Commission and the EUâs
Economic Policy Committee, starting from a
level of 21.0% of GDP in 2010, Hungary is
likely to experience a moderate increase in
age-related public expenditure amounting to
1.5 percentage points of GDP in the years to
2060.
14
This contained increase in age-related
spending relates, inter alia, to pension reforms
implemented in May 2009, which included an
increase in the statutory retirement age, a less
generous indexation of pensions and the
abolishment of the 13th monthly pension
payment. However, ongoing vigilance is
required, as actual demographic and economic
developments may turn out to be less favourable
than assumed in the projections. In the European
Commissionâs 2009 Sustainability Report,
Hungary is assessed to be at medium risk
with regard to the sustainability of its public
fi
nances.
15
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, Hungary must
bring its budget de
fi
cit below the 3% reference
value by 2011 in line with the EDP requirements
and ful
fi
l the commitments agreed in the context
of the EU and IMF-led
fi
nancial assistance
programme. This requires implementing the
measures proposed on the expenditure side in
the 2010 budget, and specifying the additional
measures needed to compensate for the revenue
loss expected for 2011 and beyond. At the
same time, the quality of public
fi
nances
should be further improved by strengthening
the role of productivity-enhancing public
investment. Hungaryâs
fi
scal policy strategy
should be supported by continuing the rigorous
implementation of its revised
fi
scal framework
and further improving budgetary planning
and control procedures relevant for the
medium-term framework.
5.6.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
In the two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010, the Hungarian
forint did not participate in ERM II. Before
introducing a
fl
exible exchange rate regime on
26 February 2008, the forint traded within a
unilaterally set Âą15%
fl
uctuation band around
a central rate of 282.36 forints per euro. After
âContribution of the Commissionâs Services regarding the
14
Peer Review of the Hungarian Pension Reformâ, European
Commission, 2010.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
15
154
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
being subject to strong depreciation pressures
between mid-2008 and March 2009, the forint
partially reversed the losses sustained. Over
the reference period, the Hungarian currency
mostly traded substantially weaker than its
April 2008 average exchange rate, which is used
as a benchmark for illustrative purposes in the
absence of an ERM II central rate (see Table 9a).
The maximum upward deviation from this
benchmark was 10.1%, while the maximum
downward deviation amounted to 24.7%
(see Chart 6 and Table 9a). On 16 October 2008
the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the ECB
jointly announced that they had established
an agreement on repurchase transactions,
which would provide the Magyar Nemzeti
Bank with a facility to borrow up to âŹ5 billion.
On 4 November 2008, the Council of the
European Union adopted a decision to make
available to Hungary medium-term
fi
nancial
assistance, provided as a medium-term loan
under the balance of payments facility
for Member States. On 6 November 2008,
the Executive Board of the IMF approved a
USD 15.7 billion standby arrangement for
Hungary to avert an intensi
fi
cation of
fi
nancial
market pressures. As this arrangement, coupled
with the other agreements, helped reduce
fi
nancial vulnerabilities, it contributed to
reducing exchange rate pressures.
Looking at these developments in more detail,
the strong downward pressure on the Hungarian
forint occurred against the background of a
deteriorating outlook for Hungaryâs economy,
investor concerns about external vulnerabilities,
a downgrade of the Hungarian sovereign
credit rating in late 2008 and the heightened
uncertainty in global
fi
nancial
markets
following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in
September 2008. The EU and IMF-led joint
international
fi
nancial assistance programme
for Hungary, which was aimed at alleviating
the tensions in the
fi
nancial markets, helped in
late October and November 2008 to ease the
downward pressure on the Hungarian currency.
Overall, between October 2008 and March 2009
the Hungarian currency depreciated by almost
25%. A gradual normalisation of global
fi
nancial
market conditions, together with the corrective
measures adopted by the Hungarian authorities,
subsequently contributed to a reversal of this
depreciation, which has been followed by a
period of more stability in the second half
of 2009 and in 2010 to date. The Hungarian
currency traded at 264.45 forint per euro on
23 April 2010, i.e. 4.2% weaker than its average
level in April 2008.
During the period under review, the exchange
rate of the Hungarian forint against the
euro showed a high degree of volatility, as
measured by annualised standard deviations
of daily percentage changes. At the same time
short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR remained at high levels,
of 5.7 percentage points on average, over the
reference period on account of the unfavourable
outlook for Hungaryâs economy, as re
fl
ected in
the downgrades of Hungaryâs sovereign credit
rating, and the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. The spread decreased from 8.2 percentage
points in May 2009 to 5.0 percentage points in
the three-month period ending in March 2010
(see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Hungarian forint, both
in effective terms and bilaterally against the
euro, stood somewhat above the corresponding
ten-year average levels (see Table 10). However,
these measures should be interpreted with
caution, as in this period Hungary was subject
to a process of economic convergence, which
complicates any historical assessment of real
exchange rate developments.
As regards other external developments,
Hungary reported a large average de
fi
cit of
6.8% of GDP in the combined current and
capital account of the balance of payments
between 2000 and 2008. While high current
account de
fi
cits may have been partly associated
with the catching-up process of an economy
like Hungaryâs, de
fi
cits of such magnitude
have raised concerns about their sustainability.
Indeed the need to correct these large
de
fi
cits was obvious at the beginning of the
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ECB
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May 2010
far-reaching adjustment process Hungary had
to undergo following the overheating period.
After peaking at -8.2% of GDP in 2004, the
current and capital account balance improved to
-5.9% of GDP in 2008, before turning sharply
into a surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2009, following
a strong fall in domestic demand, which led to
lower imports. This sharp reversal primarily
re
fl
ected a large increase in the goods balance,
from a broadly balanced position in 2008 to a
surplus in 2009. At the same time the services
surplus rose, while the income de
fi
cit declined.
The shifts recorded in the balance of payments
of Hungary over the past two years have been
associated with a signi
fi
cant contraction of
capital in
fl
ows, against the background of the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. From a
fi
nancing perspective, foreign direct investment
contributed substantially to the
fi
nancing of
Hungaryâs external de
fi
cit. Re
fl
ecting the
reversal of the current account de
fi
cit, direct
investment decreased in 2009. The substantial
reduction in private credit in
fl
ows was offset
by larger international and European
fi
nancial
support programmes. Against this background,
gross external debt increased sharply, from
64.2% of GDP in 2003 to 155.0% and 163.2%
in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Moreover,
Hungaryâs net international investment position
deteriorated substantially, from -63.8% of
GDP in 2000 to -106.3% and -112.9% in
2008 and 2009 respectively. The high level of
this position and its rapid deterioration also
point to the importance of policies supporting
external sustainability. Hungary is a small, open
economy, although the ratio of foreign trade
in goods and services to GDP contracted from
81.9% in 2008 to 77.1% in 2009 for exports and
from 81.0% in 2008 to 71.2% in 2009 for imports
(see Table 11). With the normalisation of global
fi
nancial market conditions, reaching and
maintaining a sustainable long-term external
position will depend on implementation of the
appropriate domestic economic policies.
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods
to the euro area constituted 58.1% of total
exports, whereas the corresponding
fi
gure
for imports amounted to 55.1%. The share
of euro area countries in Hungaryâs inward
direct investment stood at 53.2% in 2009 and
in its portfolio investment liabilities at 57.6%
in 2008. The share of Hungaryâs assets invested
in the euro area amounted to 41.7% in the case
of direct investment in 2009 and 73.0% for
portfolio investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
5.6.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 long-term interest rates in Hungary
were 8.4% on average and thus well above
the 6.0% reference value for the interest rate
convergence criterion (see Table 13).
Over the years Hungaryâs long-term interest
rates have been affected, among other factors,
by the domestic
fi
scal situation and
fi
nancial
developments, as well as the global appetite for
risk. Despite increasing temporarily in late 2003
and 2004, the long-term interest rates declined
from the beginning of 2001
16
to September 2005
(see Chart 6a). In September 2005 the long-term
interest rates reached a historical low of 5.6%.
However, in
fl
ation concerns rose, the de
fi
cit
increased markedly and Hungaryâs long-term
credit rating was downgraded. An upward
adjustment in the long-term interest rates took
place and in October 2006 they stood at 7.5%.
Plans for
fi
scal consolidation and favourable
sentiment in
fi
nancial markets contributed
to long-term interest rates hovering around 6.8%
until the end of 2007.
From the beginning of 2008 the rise in domestic
in
fl
ation, together with increasing global risk
aversion, again pushed up the long-term yields.
This, together with the considerable uncertainty
and turbulence in international
fi
nancial markets,
as well as the further downgrades of the credit
rating at the end of 2008 and at the beginning
of 2009, reduced appetite for risk among
investors, increased risk premia and dampened
Data on Hungaryâs long-term interest rates are available from
16
2001 onwards only.
156
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
market liquidity. Hungaryâs long-term interest
rate peaked at 11.7% in March 2009. As tensions
in international
fi
nancial markets gradually
eased and liquidity recovered, the government
bond yields declined. Also, the EU and IMF-led
joint
fi
nancial assistance programme helped to
alleviate pressures. At the end of March 2010
the long-term interest rates stood at 7.2%.
The long-term interest rate differential with
the euro area average
fl
uctuated between
2.0 and 4.3 percentage points from October 2004
to September 2008 (see Chart 6b). The spread
increased in late 2008 and reached the
historically high level of 7.8% in March 2009.
The widening of the spread indicated increased
risk aversion and concerns about domestic
economic imbalances. Over the rest of 2009
the interest rate differential declined to stand at
3.5 percentage points in March 2010.
Regarding
fi
nancial integration developments,
the Hungarian capital market is smaller and
less developed than the euro area average
(see Table 14). The outstanding amount of
debt securities issued by corporations has
increased steadily and stood at 28.6% of
GDP in 2009. The importance of the stock
market for the
fi
nancing of the corporate
sector is limited compared with the
fi
nancing
provided by the banking sector. Foreign-owned
banks play a major role in the banking sector,
and the majority of the loans to the private sector
are in foreign currencies. The stock market
capitalisation stood at 21.7% of GDP, while
outstanding bank loans to the private sector
stood at 66.9% of GDP at the end of 2009.
However, all of these ratios remain low in
comparison to the euro area. The international
claims of euro area banks on banks in Hungary
stood at 22.9% of total liabilities in 2009.
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H U N G A R Y
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
HUNGARY
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
158
Chart 1
Price developments
158
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
158
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
159
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
159
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
159
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
160
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
160
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
161
(a) Levels
161
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
161
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
161
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
162
(a) Levels
162
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
162
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
162
Chart 5
Potential future debt
ratios under alternative
assumptions for
fi
scal
balance ratios
162
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-dept adjustment
163
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
163
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
164
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Hungarian forint
164
Chart 6
Hungarian forint: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
164
(a) Exchange rate over the
reference period
164
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
164
Table 10 Hungarian forint: real
exchange rate developments
165
Table 11 External developments
165
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
165
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
166
Chart 7
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
166
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
166
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
166
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
166
158
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
5.4 6.2 5.6 5.7
4.8
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
C h a r t 1 Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001
2002 2003 2004
2005
2006
2007 2008 2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
10.0 9.1 5.2 4.7 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 6.0 4.0
HICP
excluding
unprocessed
food
and
energy
-
-
5.8 4.9 6.4 2.7 2.5 6.7 5.1 4.1
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
5.0 3.3 5.3 6.6 5.9 2.2
CPI
9.8 9.2 5.3 4.7 6.8 3.6 3.9 7.9 6.1 4.2
Private consumption de
fl
ator
9.6 8.0 3.8 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.4 6.2 5.6 4.4
GDP de
fl
ator
9.2
10.0 7.9 4.8 5.4 2.1 3.9 5.9 3.8 4.9
Producer prices
2)
14.1
10.3 2.8 5.2 8.4 6.1 8.4 6.5
11.6 1.2
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
4.9 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.9 3.5 4.0 1.0 0.6 -6.3
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
49.2 52.5 55.3 56.8 58.0 57.7 57.8 57.3 59.4
-
Comparative
price
levels
(euro
area
=
100)
49.1 52.6 57.1 56.6 60.1 62.0 59.4 65.6 65.5
-
Output gap
4)
-0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.8 3.6 3.0 2.7 -4.0
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
6.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.8
10.1
Unit
labour
costs,
whole
economy
17.1 6.7 8.7 5.4 4.3 3.2 1.9 5.4 4.5 1.4
Compensation
per
employee,
whole
economy 9.7
11.6
13.7 9.9
10.9 7.1 5.3 6.7 6.5 -1.5
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
-
4.6 4.6 4.2 6.4 3.8 3.3 1.3 1.9 -2.8
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
12.9 2.4 -5.4 0.3 -1.0 1.3 8.0 -4.3 1.7 1.5
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
-6.3 1.9 6.9 0.4 2.3 0.3 -6.4 6.2 1.2 -9.5
Money
supply
(M3)
18.0 17.1 9.3 12.0 12.6 13.7 13.6 11.7 7.0 3.4
Lending
from
banks
34.3 17.7 28.4 35.1 21.9 18.0 19.4 18.2 11.3 -3.9
Stock
prices
(Budapest
BUX
Index)
-11.0 -9.2 9.4 20.3 57.2 41.0 19.5 5.6 -53.3 73.4
Residential
property
prices
-
-
-
10.9 9.1 0.9 -1.1 2.0 2.1 2.1
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
159
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Convergence Report
May 2010
H U N G A R Y
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual
percentage
change
5.2 5.4 6.2 5.6 5.7
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
3.4
3.1
5.2
5.8
6.3
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
6.2
6.1
5.4
5.0
4.8
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
4.6
2.8
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
4.0
3.0
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
4.3
2.5
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
4.4
3.0
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
160
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Convergence Report
May 2010
2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008 2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
-3.8 -4.0 -4.1
Reference
value
-3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
-0.9 -1.3 -1.4
General government gross debt
72.9
78.3
78.9
Reference
value
60.0 60.0 60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
43.8 43.2 42.3 42.2 42.3 42.2 42.6 44.8 45.4 45.8
Current
revenue
43.4 42.7 41.8 41.8 41.9 41.6 41.7 44.0 44.8 44.6
Direct
taxes
9.7 10.0 10.0 9.5 8.9 9.0 9.3 10.2 10.6 9.8
Indirect
taxes
16.3 15.3 14.9 15.7 16.0 15.5 15.0 15.6 15.6 16.3
Social
security
contributions
13.1 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.3 12.6 12.6 13.6 13.8 13.0
Other
current
revenue
4.4 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.6 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.5
Capital
revenue
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.2
Total expenditure
46.8 47.2 51.2 49.4 48.7 50.1 51.9 49.8 49.2 49.8
Current
expenditure
40.9 40.7 42.2 43.9 43.9 44.7 45.7 44.3 45.1 46.0
Compensation
of
employees
10.6 11.1 12.2 13.2 12.6 12.6 12.2 11.5 11.6 11.2
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
12.6 12.5 13.2 13.9 13.9 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.9 16.1
Interest
payable
5.1 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.7
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Other
current
expenditure
12.7 12.5 12.8 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.7 13.6 13.4 14.0
Capital
expenditure
5.9 6.6 8.9 5.6 4.8 5.4 6.2 5.5 4.1 3.8
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.0
-4.0 -8.9 -7.2 -6.4 -7.9 -9.3 -5.0 -3.8 -4.0
Primary
balance
2.1 0.6 -4.9 -3.2 -2.0 -3.8 -5.4 -0.9 0.4 0.7
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
0.3 -0.3 -4.0 -3.7 -2.9 -3.9 -4.9 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
161
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May 2010
H U N G A R Y
C h a r t 2 General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-10
-5
0
5
-10
-5
0
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
55.0 52.0 55.6 58.4 59.1 61.8 65.6 65.9 72.9 78.3
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
64.4 69.5 75.2 75.5 73.5 71.0 70.8 68.4 59.9 53.6
In
foreign
currencies
35.6 30.5 24.8 24.5 26.5 29.0 29.2 31.6 40.1 46.4
Euro
1)
33.9 29.0 23.8 23.6 24.5 26.5 28.6 29.6 30.8 46.4
Other
foreign
currencies
1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 2.0 2.5 0.6 2.0 9.3 0.0
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
74.5 70.0 67.3 61.5 57.8 54.3 53.5 50.9 48.4 44.3
Average residual maturity
(in
years)
3.8 3.6 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.6
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term
(up
to
and
including
one
year) 17.3 19.4 21.7 19.6 17.7 15.9 16.1 13.3 10.6 10.5
Medium
and
long-term
(over
one
year)
82.7 80.6 78.3 80.4 82.3 84.1 83.9 86.7 89.4 89.5
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
162
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Convergence Report
May 2010
C h a r t 3 General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
50
60
70
80
50
60
70
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
levels
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
C h a r t 4 General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
2008
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
total expenditure
total revenue
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: ESCB.
C h a r t 5 Potential future debt ratios
under alternative assumptions for fiscal
balance ratios
55
60
65
70
75
80
2013
55
60
65
70
75
80
constant primary balance
constant overall balance
balanced budget
2010
2011
2012
Sources: European Commission projections and ECB
calculations.
Notes: The three scenarios assume that the debt ratio for 2010 is
78.9% of GDP as forecast and that the overall balance of -4.1%
of GDP or the primary balance of 0.8% of GDP for 2010 will
be kept constant over the period considered (as a percentage of
GDP), or, alternatively, that a balanced budget is maintained
from 2011 onwards. The nominal rate of interest is assumed to be
at 4.4% (an average real cost of public debt outstanding of 1.4%
plus 3% in
fl
ation). The real GDP growth rate is as projected
by the European Commission in its spring 2010 forecast for
the period 2010-13. De
fi
cit-debt adjustments are assumed
to be equal to zero.
163
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May 2010
H U N G A R Y
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Change in general government debt
1)
2.8
4.0
9.4
7.5
6.3
5.8
8.5
4.5
9.8
4.1
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.0
-4.0
-8.9
-7.2
-6.4
-7.9
-9.3
-5.0
-3.8
-4.0
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-0.2
0.0
0.5
0.3
-0.1
-2.1
-0.9
-0.5
6.0
0.1
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
-2.0
2.7
-0.7
-0.5
1.6
-2.2
-0.7
-0.1
5.0
-0.5
Currency and deposits
-0.8
1.6
-1.8
0.1
1.1
-0.1
0.5
0.6
6.1
-2.7
Loans and securities other than shares
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
2.0
Shares and other equity
-0.3
1.1
1.0
-0.6
-0.8
-2.6
-1.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
Privatisations
-0.7
-0.9
-0.6
-0.8
-0.3
-2.5
-0.1
-0.5
-0.6
0.0
Equity injections
0.1
1.8
1.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
Other
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-0.2
-1.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
Other
fi
nancial assets
-0.5
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.5
Valuation changes of general government debt
1.1
-1.0
-0.4
1.3
-1.2
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.9
0.0
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
1.0
-1.1
-0.6
1.2
-0.9
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.8
0.2
Other valuation effects
2)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
Other changes in general government debt
3)
0.7
-1.7
1.6
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.7
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
23.5
24.2
30.3
34.1
40.1
50.8
57.6
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
21.8
21.0
18.8
18.7
19.9
21.5
22.5
Source: âContribution of the Commissionâs services regarding the peer review of the 2010 Hungarian pension reformâ, the European
Commission 2010.
164
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May 2010
3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
No
Exchange rate level in April 2008 in HUF/EUR
253.752
Maximum upward deviation
1)
10.1
Maximum downward deviation
1)
-24.7
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its average level in April 2008 over the period
24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency was
stronger (weaker) than its exchange rate level in April 2008.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Hungarian forint
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008 2009
2010
June Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec. Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
8.2 10.3 21.3 20.0 18.3 13.7 9.1 6.9
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
3.8 3.6 6.1 7.7 8.0 7.1 5.6 5.0
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month Treasury bill rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
C h a r t 6 Hungarian forint: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Exchange rate over the reference period
(daily data; average of April 2008 = 100;
24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; average of April 2008 = 100;
April 2000-April 2010)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2009
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2008
120
110
100
90
80
2008
120
110
100
90
80
70
70
130
130
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: ECB.
Note: An upward (downward) movement of the line indicates an appreciation (depreciation) of the Hungarian forint.
165
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H U N G A R Y
Table 10
Hungarian forint: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
13.6
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
-1.6
Real effective exchange rate
1),
2)
14.3
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-7.9 -5.4 -6.6 -8.0 -8.2 -6.5 -6.6 -5.9 -5.9 1.5
Current
account
balance
-8.5 -6.0 -6.9 -8.0 -8.2 -7.2 -7.2 -6.6 -7.0 0.2
Goods
balance
-6.2 -4.2 -3.1 -3.9 -3.4 -2.5 -2.3 0.2 0.0 4.3
Services
balance
2.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.6
Income
balance
-5.4 -5.3 -5.4 -5.0 -5.2 -5.7 -5.9 -7.3 -7.2 -6.0
Current
transfers
balance
0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 0.3
Capital
account
balance
0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
3.7 9.4 6.6 4.1 9.9 8.9 6.6 1.8 -1.2 -2.7
Direct
investment
balance
4.5 6.7 4.1 0.6 3.3 5.0 1.0 3.4 1.4 1.0
Portfolio
investment
balance
-0.8 2.7 2.5 3.6 6.6 3.9 5.5 -1.6 -2.6 -3.7
Other
investment
balance
6.7 -4.2 -3.2 3.8 1.2 4.1 3.5 5.3
18.5 7.4
Reserve
assets
-2.3 0.1 2.8 -0.5 -1.8 -4.4 -1.0 -0.1 -7.6 -6.1
Exports
of
goods
and
services
73.6 71.4 63.0 62.1 64.3 67.7 77.1 79.9 81.9 77.1
Imports
of
goods
and
services
77.4 72.8 65.2 65.9 67.1 69.0 78.0 78.7 81.0 71.2
Net international investment position
2)
-63.8 -56.8 -64.8 -77.7 -83.1 -92.3 -95.4 -89.1
-106.3
-112.9
Gross external debt
2)
-
-
-
64.2 65.7 77.1 100.9 115.1 155.0 163.2
Source: ECB.
Note: Figures include Special Purpose Entities.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
71.7 71.0 67.9 67.8 65.2 62.5 60.2 58.7 56.9 58.1
Imports
of
goods
56.0 55.6 54.0 53.1 56.2 56.5 55.3 55.0 54.5 55.1
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
73.0 71.2 62.4 67.2 66.8 62.6 77.1 63.7 58.9 53.2
Outward direct investment
1)
38.0 29.6 40.7 39.0 51.0 51.7 30.8 40.0 45.1 41.7
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
59.9 63.0 73.8 71.6 76.4 69.6 66.4 57.6
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
30.5 49.8 35.4 46.7 49.4 71.8 75.0 73.0
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
83.6 83.8 84.5 84.1 83.1 80.9 79.2 79.0 78.2 78.9
Imports
of
goods
66.1 65.9 65.0 64.5 68.5 69.9 70.2 69.5 68.2 68.8
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
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4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term interest rate
7.7
7.6
7.7
7.2
8.4
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6
3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
21.1 16.2 10.9 13.0 10.3 11.4 13.1 14.1 20.6 28.6
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
25.4 18.6 17.1 18.4 24.7 31.7 33.7 31.5 13.3 21.7
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
30.2 31.0 33.5 41.3 44.5 50.0 54.3 59.6 68.2 66.9
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
11.5 16.5 18.5 19.5 21.4 26.2 22.9
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
C h a r t 7 Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2008
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2002 2003
2005
2007
2009
2001
2004
2006
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2008
2002 2003
2005
2007
2009
2001
2004
2006
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
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P O L A N D
5.7
POLAND
5.7.1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Poland was 3.9%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability (see Table 1). On the basis of the
most recent information, the 12-month average
rate of HICP in
fl
ation is expected to decline in
the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation has followed a sharp downward
trend, with HICP in
fl
ation falling from 10.1%
in 2000 to 0.7% in 2003. In 2004 there was a
temporary rise in in
fl
ation mainly stemming
from Polandâs accession to the Union.
Following a period of low in
fl
ation in 2005 and
2006, price pressures started to pick up again at
the end of 2006 as a result of rising food prices,
higher administered prices and indirect taxes,
and growing wage dynamics. In 2008 and 2009
in
fl
ation stood at elevated levels of around 4%,
mainly re
fl
ecting the global food and energy
price shocks in 2008 and the lagged impact
of the sharp depreciation of the zloty after the
collapse of Lehman Brothers (see Chart 1).
These in
fl
ation developments re
fl
ect a number
of important policy choices, most notably the
orientation of monetary policy towards the
achievement of price stability, which is the
primary objective, as enshrined in the central
bank law. Narodowy Bank Polski operates a
fl
oating exchange rate system and since 1998
has had an in
fl
ation targeting framework in
place. The medium-term CPI in
fl
ation target
has been 2.5% Âą1 percentage point since
2004. The degree of exchange rate volatility
has been mostly rather high and has therefore
in
fl
uenced in
fl
ation through subsequent changes
in import prices. In general, the in
fl
ation
developments have taken place in the context
of a rather loose
fi
scal policy, which became
particularly apparent in 2008. A number of
reforms designed to improve
fi
nancial market
stability, make the labour market more
fl
exible
and, to a more limited degree, enhance product
market competition have helped towards the
achievement of price stability.
From 2000 onwards in
fl
ation developments
appear to have largely mirrored the output
performance of the Polish economy with some
lag. After a sharp slowdown at the beginning of
this decade, macroeconomic developments up
to mid-2008 were characterised by a sustained
upswing in economic activity, which was only
partly interrupted in the
fi
rst half of 2005.
Output expanded at an annual rate of over 6%
in 2006 and 2007, with overheating pressures
emerging gradually. Growth was driven
mainly by domestic demand on the back of an
ever-improving labour market situation and
stronger growth in credit to the private sector.
A notable increase in labour demand and
employment, coupled with a decrease in the
participation rate and net labour out
fl
ows,
resulted in sizeable labour shortages in some
sectors (particularly in construction, but also in
services) and regions, with the unemployment
rate falling from 20% in 2002 to 7.1% in 2008.
In line with these developments, compensation
per employee grew considerably more than
labour productivity, which resulted in a notable
rise in unit labour cost growth in 2007 and 2008.
High wage growth, together with a sharp rise
in food prices, strong hikes in house prices and
increases in administered prices, contributed to
the build-up of in
fl
ationary pressures from the
end of 2006 onwards, which â albeit starting
from a rather low level â brought in
fl
ation to
4.2% in 2008. This general pattern of in
fl
ation
developments was also re
fl
ected in other
relevant indices, such as the HICP excluding
unprocessed food and energy (see Table 2).
Looking at recent developments, annual HICP
in
fl
ation remained at an elevated level of around
4% throughout most of 2009, but has started to
decline in recent months, standing at 2.9% in
March 2010 (see Table 3a). The persistently
high in
fl
ation rate in 2009 was attributable
partly to surging food prices, although increases
were lower than in 2008 owing to base effects,
with a particular contribution from processed
168
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Convergence Report
May 2010
food items, given their relatively large share
of around 20% in Polandâs HICP basket. The
sharp depreciation of the zloty also contributed
to in
fl
ation developments. The contribution of
services and energy prices to overall in
fl
ation
remained signi
fi
cant in the course of 2009,
with services prices re
fl
ecting lagged demand
pressures. Energy prices were largely driven by
increases in administered energy prices (mainly
for electricity, gas and heating for households)
and, since late 2009, higher global oil prices.
The overall contribution of increases in
administered prices (stemming in particular
from services for the maintenance and repair of
dwellings as well as energy items) and indirect
taxes (tobacco products and alcoholic beverages)
to annual in
fl
ation â at around 0.9 percentage
point and 0.8 percentage point respectively in
2009 â remained substantial. All of these factors
offset the sharp decline in nominal wage growth
(particularly in the industry and construction
sectors, by around 16 percentage points from
the second quarter of 2008 onwards) which
occurred in response to the slowdown of the
Polish economy. Following the global
fi
nancial
and economic crisis, real GDP growth fell from
5% in 2008 to 1.7% in 2009, which turned out
to be the strongest growth performance recorded
among the Member States in the aftermath of
the crisis. The most recent decline in the HICP
in
fl
ation rate seems to be relatively broad-based,
with particularly low increases in food prices.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
2.2% to 2.4% for 2010 and from 1.9% to 2.6%
for 2011 (see Table 3b). It appears that price
developments will be affected by two opposing
trends over the forecast horizon. On the one
hand, the recent appreciation of the zloty and its
lagged dampening impact on import prices, low
demand pressures and subdued wage growth
as the labour market situation deteriorates
further are expected to contribute to a decline
in in
fl
ation. On the other hand, the disin
fl
ation
process may be slowed by the recovery of world
growth and the expected subsequent rise in
world food and commodity prices, as well as
by further increases in administered prices and
indirect taxes. The upside risks to the in
fl
ation
outlook are associated mainly with a stronger
than expected economic recovery in Poland
and higher than expected commodity prices.
The downside risks relate mainly to the size
of the exchange rate pass-through of the recent
appreciation of the zloty, which may dampen
import prices. Looking further ahead, the
catching-up process is likely to have a bearing
on in
fl
ation and/or on the nominal exchange
rate over the coming years, given that GDP per
capita and price levels are still lower in Poland
than in the euro area (see Table 2). However, it
is dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size of the effect
resulting from this catching-up process.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Poland requires,
inter alia, maintaining a price stability-oriented
monetary policy in the medium term and
implementing a comprehensive and credible
fi
scal consolidation path in line with the
requirements under the EDP. It will also be
important for Poland to continue with the
restructuring of its economy, to speed up
the privatisation process (particularly in the
mining, chemicals and energy sectors) and
to further enhance competition in product
markets. To foster sustainable convergence
in Poland, it is crucial that the country further
improves the absorption capacity of capital
in
fl
ows, particularly in view of rising in
fl
ows of
Union funds, better tailors R&D expenditure to
business needs and removes barriers to setting
up SMEs. Moreover, additional measures to
improve the functioning of the labour market
and to boost the low labour force participation
rate are essential for solid growth performance
and price stability. It is important to strengthen
those measures aimed at preventing a signi
fi
cant
increase in structural unemployment. In
particular, labour market reforms should aim
to increase wage differentiation (particularly in
view of the wage
fl
oor imposed by a uniform
minimum wage across regions), reduce skill
mismatches and ensure the better targeting of
social bene
fi
ts. Wage increases should re
fl
ect
labour productivity growth, labour market
conditions and developments in competitor
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May 2010
P O L A N D
countries. Financial sector policies should be
geared towards preventing excessive credit
growth in the future. Such measures will
help to achieve an environment conducive to
sustainable price stability, as well as promote
competitiveness and employment growth.
5.7.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Poland is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive
de
fi
cit. In the reference year 2009 the general
government budget balance showed a de
fi
cit
of 7.1% of GDP, i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the
3% reference value. The general government
debt-to-GDP ratio was 51.0%, i.e. below the
60% reference value (see Table 4). Compared
with the previous year, the de
fi
cit ratio increased
by 3.4 percentage points and the government
debt ratio increased by 3.8 percentage points.
In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is forecast by the
European Commission to increase to 7.3%
and the government debt ratio is projected to
increase to 53.9%. With regard to other
fi
scal
factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the ratio
of public investment to GDP in 2009 and is
expected to do so also in 2010.
Looking at developments in Polandâs budgetary
position over the period 2000 to 2009, the
de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio exhibited a rather volatile
pattern (see Table 5 and Chart 2a). Starting from
a level of 3.0% of GDP in 2000, the de
fi
cit ratio
declined to 1.9% of GDP in 2007, but rose again
sharply in 2008. Against the background of
these budgetary developments, an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit
was adopted in 2004 and then abrogated in
2008 in the light of a de
fi
cit outcome below
the reference value in 2007. As the de
fi
cit ratio
rose above the reference value in 2008 in a
still favourable macroeconomic environment,
the ECOFIN Council decided on 7 July 2009
that an excessive de
fi
cit situation existed in
Poland and set the deadline for correcting it at
2012. As is shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
European Commission estimates indicate that
cyclical factors had an overall slightly positive
impact on the budget balance before 2009.
Non-cyclical factors, which had tended to
contribute to a reduction of the budget de
fi
cit
between 2005 and 2007, explain the strong
deterioration in the budget balance in 2008 and
relate to a reduction in labour taxation intended
to increase incentives to work. In the absence
of temporary and one-off factors between 2004
and 2009, these developments in the factors
underlying the change in the budget de
fi
cit seem
to re
fl
ect a lasting deterioration in Polandâs
structural budgetary position, which is measured
as the cyclically adjusted budget balance net of
one-off and temporary measures. When the
fi
nancial and economic crisis began in 2008,
the Polish government gave the automatic
fi
scal stabilisers room to operate, and these
were only partly offset by cuts in discretionary
expenditure. At the same time, the personal
income tax reform and the reduction in social
security contributions approved ahead of the
crisis acted as a
fi
scal stimulus. Assessing how
Polandâs structural budgetary position changed
during the crisis is, however, particularly
dif
fi
cult in view of uncertainty over the level
and growth rate of potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2009 the
debt-to-GDP ratio increased cumulatively
by 14.2 percentage points (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). As shown in greater detail in Chart 3b,
this increase relates to the development in
primary de
fi
cits in particular, indicating a
persistent link between primary de
fi
cits and
adverse debt dynamics. At the same time, the
impact of de
fi
cit-debt adjustments was volatile,
with both debt-increasing and debt-decreasing
effects in individual years (see Table 7).
The growth/interest rate differential had in the
aggregate a small dampening effect on the debt
ratio between 2004 and 2009. In 2009 the general
government debt-to-GDP ratio increased notably
in a deteriorating macroeconomic environment,
re
fl
ecting an increasing primary de
fi
cit and a
negative growth/interest rate differential.
As regards Polandâs general government debt
structure, the share of government debt with
a short-term maturity declined from 20.7% in
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Convergence Report
May 2010
2003 to 8.3% in 2009 (see Table 6). Taking
into account the level of the debt ratio,
fi
scal
balances are relatively insensitive to changes in
interest rates. At the same time, the proportion
of government debt denominated in foreign
currency is, at 26.7%, relatively high, and,
given the overall debt level,
fi
scal balances
are relatively sensitive to changes in exchange
rates. During the
fi
nancial and economic crisis
the share of both debt with a short-term maturity
and debt denominated in foreign currency rose,
pointing to a rise in debt-related vulnerabilities.
At the same time, the Polish government has
not incurred contingent liabilities resulting from
government interventions to support
fi
nancial
institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
crisis (see the statistical section).
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure-to-GDP
ratio increased from 41.1% in 2000 to 44.5%
in 2009. During the period under consideration,
a decline in social bene
fi
ts and payable interest
was more than offset by higher spending in the
item âother current expenditureâ, while capital
expenditure increased by 3.4 percentage points
to 6.3% of GDP in 2009, re
fl
ecting, inter alia,
sizeable infrastructure projects. Total government
revenue declined by 0.7 percentage point when
compared with 2000, standing at 37.4% of GDP
in 2009, after a 2.2 percentage point drop from
the 2008 value. Overall, the development in
total revenues re
fl
ects increases in direct and
indirect taxes, which were partly compensated
for by a decline in revenues related to lower
social security contributions aimed at increasing
incentives to work and labour supply.
Looking ahead, Polandâs medium-term
fi
scal
policy strategy, as presented in the 2009-12
update of the convergence programme (dated
February 2010 and thus preceding the European
Commission forecasts shown in Table 4),
envisages a gradual decline in the de
fi
cit ratio,
bringing it to just below the 3% reference
value in 2012 (2.9% of GDP). According to
this strategy, for 2010 the Polish government is
planning for a small reduction of the de
fi
cit by
0.3 percentage point to 6.9%. At the same time,
until and including 2012 the structural de
fi
cit will
be above the medium-term budgetary objective
speci
fi
ed in the Stability and Growth Pact,
which, as in the previous programme update,
is quanti
fi
ed in the convergence programme as
a structural de
fi
cit of 1% of GDP. While total
revenues are projected to increase signi
fi
cantly
as a share of GDP between 2009 and 2012
(by 2.9 percentage points), the total expenditure
ratio is expected to decline by 1.3 percentage
points. On the revenue side, this is attributable
to, inter alia, an expected increase in income
tax revenue despite past declines in income tax
rates. On the expenditure side, it re
fl
ects, inter
alia, plans for lower spending on public wages
and lower social payments, which is partly
compensated for by higher capital expenditure.
Moreover, the government gross debt ratio is
expected to increase to 55.8% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on Polandâs public
fi
nances over the long term, as highlighted in
Table 8, a marked ageing of the population is
expected. According to the 2009 projections by
the European Commission and the EUâs
Economic Policy Committee, starting from a
level of 19.1% of GDP in 2010, Poland is likely
to experience a decline in age-related public
expenditure amounting to 1 percentage point of
GDP in the years to 2060.
17
This re
fl
ects in large
part the implementation of a major pension
reform in 1999, which established a second,
privately funded pension pillar. However,
ongoing vigilance is required, as actual
demographic and economic developments may
turn out to be less favourable than assumed in the
projections. In the European Commissionâs 2009
Sustainability Report, Poland is assessed to be at
medium risk with regard to the sustainability of
its public
fi
nances.
18
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, Poland must bring
its budget de
fi
cit below the 3% reference value
by 2012 in line with the EDP commitments.
â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
17
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
18
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ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
P O L A N D
This requires specifying and implementing
suf
fi
ciently comprehensive consolidation
measures, particularly on the expenditure side of
the budget. Polandâs
fi
scal policy strategy should
be embedded in a further strengthened
fi
scal
framework containing strict expenditure rules in
support of the required
fi
scal consolidation.
5.7.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
In the two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010, the Polish zloty
did not participate in ERM II, but traded under
a
fl
exible exchange rate regime (see Table 9a).
The zloty was subject to sharp depreciation
pressures between mid-2008 and February 2009.
Thereafter, it recovered some of its losses against
the euro. Over the reference period, the Polish
currency traded mostly substantially weaker
than its April 2008 average exchange rate,
which is used as a benchmark for illustrative
purposes in the absence of an ERM II central
rate. The maximum upward deviation from
this benchmark was 6.9%, while the maximum
downward deviation amounted to 41.8% (see
Chart 5 and Table 9a). In April 2010 Narodowy
Bank Polski purchased foreign currency.
On 21 November 2008 Narodowy Bank Polski
and the ECB jointly announced that they had
agreed on repurchase transactions which would
provide Narodowy Bank Polski with a facility
to borrow up to âŹ10 billion. On 6 May 2009 the
Executive Board of the IMF approved a one-year
precautionary arrangement under the Flexible
Credit Line of USD 20.5 billion, to provide
support for Poland during the global
fi
nancial and
economic crisis. As these arrangements helped to
reduce risks related to
fi
nancial vulnerabilities,
they might also have contributed to reducing the
risk of exchange rate pressures.
Looking at these developments in more detail, the
sharp depreciation of the zloty took place against
a background of the heightened uncertainty in
global
fi
nancial markets following the collapse
of Lehman Brothers in September 2008,
investor concerns about external vulnerabilities
in the region and an unfavourable outlook for
Polandâs economy. As a consequence, between
October 2008 and February 2009 the zloty
depreciated by almost 42% to around 4.88 zloty
per euro. The gradual normalisation of global
fi
nancial market conditions contributed to a
reversal of the depreciation of the zloty. The
Polish currency strengthened, to trade at 3.88
zloty per euro on 23 April 2010, i.e. 12.8%
weaker than its average level in April 2008.
Until August 2008 the exchange rate of the Polish
zloty against the euro showed a relatively high
degree of volatility, as measured by annualised
standard deviations of daily percentage changes.
Thereafter, the volatility increased further in the
context of global
fi
nancial market conditions.
At the same time short-term interest rate
differentials against the three-month EURIBOR
have increased over the last two years, from
1.4 percentage points in the three-month period
ending in April 2008 to 3.5 percentage points
in that ending in March 2010, on account of
different monetary policy responses in Poland
and the euro area to the global
fi
nancial and
economic crisis (see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Polish zloty, both
in effective terms and bilaterally against the
euro, stood close to the corresponding ten-year
historical averages (see Table 10). However,
these measures should be interpreted with
caution as, in this period, Poland was subject
to a process of economic convergence, which
complicates any historical assessment of real
exchange rate developments.
As regards other external developments,
between 2000 and 2008 Poland reported
relatively large de
fi
cits, of 3.2% of GDP on
average, in the combined current and capital
account of its balance of payments. The external
de
fi
cit narrowed from 6.0% of GDP in 2000 to
0.9% in 2005, before widening again to 3.9%
in 2008 on account of the rising de
fi
cit in the
goods balance associated with rapid growth
in domestic demand. In 2009 the current and
capital account balance reached a broadly
balanced position of 0.1% of GDP following a
strong depreciation of the zloty and a decline
172
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
in domestic demand, which led to a relatively
larger fall in imports than in exports. This
reversal mainly re
fl
ected a substantial reduction
in the goods de
fi
cit, which more than offset the
increasing income de
fi
cit. The shifts recorded in
the balance of payments of Poland over the past
two years have been associated with a decline
in capital in
fl
ows, against the background
of the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis.
From a
fi
nancing perspective, net in
fl
ows in
direct investment on average almost entirely
covered the external de
fi
cit. Between 2006
and 2008 net in
fl
ows in other investment were
high, more than offsetting out
fl
ows in portfolio
investment. In 2009 the strongest in
fl
ows were
recorded in portfolio investment, followed by
other investment and foreign direct investment.
Against this background, gross external debt
increased from 38.7% of GDP in 2000 to 56.7%
in 2008, before rising to 59.4% of GDP in 2009.
At the same time Polandâs net international
investment position deteriorated substantially,
from -30.7% of GDP in 2000 to -56.6% and
-59.5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Poland is
an open economy; the ratio of foreign trade in
goods and services to GDP contracted from
40.0% in 2008 to 38.9% in 2009 for exports
and from 43.9% in 2008 to 38.8% in 2009
for imports (see Table 11).
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods to
the euro area constituted 55.9% of total exports,
whereas the corresponding
fi
gure for imports
was higher at 57.9%. The share of euro area
countries in Polandâs inward direct investment
stood at 74.0% in 2009 and that in its portfolio
investment liabilities at 47.6% in 2008.
The share of Polandâs assets invested in the euro
area amounted to 39.6% in the case of direct
investment in 2009 and 36.5% for portfolio
investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
5.7.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 long-term interest rates in Poland
were 6.1% on average and thus just above
the 6.0% reference value for the interest rate
convergence criterion (see Table 13).
Long-term interest rates in Poland declined
signi
fi
cantly from 2001 until mid-2003 and
subsequently increased until mid-2004 in parallel
with rising in
fl
ationary pressures and growing
fi
scal uncertainty. Mirroring developments
in euro area yields, long-term interest rates
declined from mid-2004 until September 2005
(see Chart 6a), on the back of favourable in
fl
ation
dynamics and an exchange rate appreciation.
The reverse upward trend emerged towards
the end of 2005 and lasted until mid-2008 in
an environment of rising in
fl
ationary pressures
and increasing bond yields in the developed
markets. Additionally, in the period of ampli
fi
ed
fi
nancial market volatility after the summer of
2007, the demand for Polish government bonds
on the part of non-residents decreased quite
signi
fi
cantly and this eventually exerted some
upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
The
fi
nancial market crisis increased the
country risk premium and triggered foreign
capital out
fl
ows and liquidity strains in the
government bond market. In October 2008 a
rating agency downgraded the credit outlook
of Poland from positive to stable owing to the
expected negative impact of the deterioration in
international economic and
fi
nancial conditions
on the Polish economy. From November 2008
until June 2009 Narodowy Bank Polski cut the
reference interest rate by a total of 250 basis
points, to 3.50%, in an environment of economic
slowdown and falling in
fl
ationary pressures.
High volatility of long-term interest rates
between the end of 2008 and the beginning of
2009 re
fl
ected high levels of risk aversion among
investors, further uncertainties concerning the
economic outlook, and the weakening of the
Polish zloty, as well as rising market concerns
173
ECB
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May 2010
P O L A N D
about the widening of the budget de
fi
cit and,
therefore, about the expected high bond supply
to
fi
nance it. In May 2009 the IMF approved a
precautionary arrangement under the Flexible
Credit Line for Poland to provide support
during the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis.
Subsequently, positive growth
fi
gures for Poland
and a signi
fi
cant improvement in the external
balance brought capital in
fl
ows to the local
bond market, while government bonds traded
in a narrow range, leading to a horizontal trend
for long-term interest rates from February 2009
to February 2010. In March 2010 long-term
interest rates declined markedly.
The spread between long-term interest rates in
Poland and average bond yields in the euro area
has declined since mid-2004 (see Chart 6b).
From July 2007, in the wake of the two rounds of
the global
fi
nancial market turmoil, the interest
rate differential widened considerably, but
remained below the highs of 2004. At the end of
the reference period, the long-term interest rate
differential amounted to 2.1 percentage points.
The Polish
fi
nancial sector can be regarded
as smaller and much less developed than
that of the euro area (see Table14). Foreign-
owned banks, primarily from the euro area,
play a major role in the Polish banking sector.
The amount outstanding of bank loans was
relatively low, at 50.1% of GDP, at the end of
2009. The majority of loans to the private sector
are issued in local currency. Market-based credit
to the corporate sector, as measured by the value
of outstanding
fi
xed-income securities issued
by corporations, was 7.3% of GDP at the end
of 2009. Stock market capitalisation declined
compared with pre-crisis levels, but remained
relatively high in comparison with other central
European stock markets, at around 30.4% of
GDP in 2009. The increased participation of
pension and investment funds has contributed
to the development of the stock market.
The international claims of euro area banks in
the country have gradually increased over time
and reached 12.4% of total liabilities in 2009.
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P O L A N D
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
POLAND
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
1 7 6
Chart 1
Price developments
1 7 6
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
1 7 6
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
1 7 7
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
1 7 7
(b)
In
fl
ation forecasts
1 7 7
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
1 7 8
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
1 7 8
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
1 7 9
(a) Levels
1 7 9
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
1 7 9
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
1 7 9
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
1 8 0
(a) Levels
1 8 0
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
1 8 0
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
1 8 0
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
1 8 1
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
1 8 1
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
1 8 2
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Polish zloty
1 8 2
Chart 5
Polish zloty: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
1 8 2
(a) Exchange rate over the
reference period
1 8 2
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
1 8 2
Table 10 Polish zloty: real exchange
rate developments
1 8 3
Table 11 External developments
1 8 3
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
1 8 3
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
1 8 4
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
1 8 4
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
1 8 4
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
1 8 4
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
1 8 4
176
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Convergence Report
May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
3.8
3.9
3.4
2.9
3.9
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
Chart 1
Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-5
0
5
10
15
2008
-5
0
5
10
15
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
10.1 5.3 1.9 0.7 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 4.2 4.0
HICP
excluding
unprocessed
food
and
energy
9.8 5.1 2.0 0.6 2.8 1.2 0.6 2.0 3.6 3.3
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
3.1 1.6 1.1 2.1 3.5 3.2
CPI
10.1 5.5 1.9 0.8 3.5 2.1 1.0 2.5 4.2 3.5
Private consumption de
fl
ator
10.0 3.8 3.3 0.4 3.0 2.1 1.2 2.4 4.2 2.7
GDP de
fl
ator
7.3 3.5 2.2 0.4 4.1 2.6 1.5 4.0 3.0 3.7
Producer prices
2)
-
3.1 0.5 1.6 7.6 2.2 3.4 4.0 5.4 2.4
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
4.3 1.2 1.4 3.9 5.3 3.6 6.2 6.8 5.0 1.7
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
42.9 42.4 43.4 44.2 46.3 46.9 47.5 49.8 52.0
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
57.8
64.5
60.9
52.8
51.6
59.8
61.2
60.9
66.4
-
Output gap
4)
1.2 -0.3 -1.8 -1.2 0.3 -0.4 0.9 2.4 2.2 -0.6
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
16.1 18.3 20.0 19.7 19.0 17.8 13.9 9.6 7.1 8.2
Unit labour costs, whole economy
4.6
6.5
-2.2
-3.3
-2.1
0.3
-1.1
2.6
6.9
2.2
Compensation
per
employee,
whole
economy
10.8
10.2 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 4.9 8.1 3.7
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
6.8
12.3 4.6 5.1 4.1 1.4 2.9 2.3 1.2 1.3
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
7.9 1.3 5.4 6.7 4.8 -3.6 2.4 1.1 0.9 8.6
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
1.9 9.9 -4.3 -9.2 -1.5 11.6 3.1 3.8 9.3
-18.2
Money
supply
(M3)
11.9 9.6 -1.1 5.8 8.6
13.7
16.8
14.8
17.1 8.1
Lending
from
banks
17.0 4.3 3.5 7.1 3.1
14.7
26.6
35.7
29.3 7.9
Stock
prices
(Warsaw
General
Index)
-1.3 -22.0 3.2 44.9 27.9 33.7 41.6 10.4 -51.1 46.9
Residential property prices
-
-
-
-
-6.1
20.0
3.8
45.3
42.4
-
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
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May 2010
P O L A N D
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.4
2.9
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
1.7
1.9
2.9
3.4
2.9
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
3.9
3.6
3.1
2.7
2.6
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
2.4
2.6
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
2.2
1.9
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
2.3 2.4
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
2.4
2.4
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
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Convergence Report
May 2010
2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008
2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.7
-7.1
-7.3
Reference value
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
0.9
-1.8
-1.0
General government gross debt
47.2
51.0
53.9
Reference value
60.0
60.0
60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
38.1 38.5 39.3 38.5 37.2 39.4 40.2 40.3 39.6 37.4
Current
revenue
38.1 38.5 39.3 38.4 37.2 38.8 39.7 39.8 39.1 36.8
Direct
taxes
7.2 6.3 6.7 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.4
Indirect
taxes
12.6 12.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.1 14.2 12.8
Social
security
contributions
12.9 13.4 12.9 12.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.4 11.3
Other
current
revenue
5.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.1
Capital
revenue
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Total expenditure
41.1 43.8 44.3 44.7 42.6 43.4 43.9 42.2 43.3 44.5
Current
expenditure
38.2 39.8 40.2 40.2 38.7 39.0 39.0 37.3 37.8 38.2
Compensation
of
employees
10.1 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 10.0 10.2
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
16.0 16.9 17.0 16.9 16.0 15.7 15.2 14.2 14.1 14.7
Interest
payable
3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.6
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
current
expenditure
9.0 9.0 9.6 9.6 9.9
10.5
11.4
11.2
11.5
10.6
Capital
expenditure
2.9 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.8 4.8 5.5 6.3
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-3.0 -5.3 -5.0 -6.2 -5.4 -4.1 -3.6 -1.9 -3.7 -7.1
Primary
balance
0.0 -2.1 -2.1 -3.2 -2.6 -1.3 -1.0 0.4 -1.5 -4.5
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
-0.6 -1.9 -1.5 -2.9 -2.0 -0.7 0.3 2.3 0.9 -1.8
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
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May 2010
P O L A N D
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2008
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
levels
2000
2002
2004
2006
-4
-2
0
2
2008
-4
-2
0
2
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
36.8 37.6 42.2 47.1 45.7 47.1 47.7 45.0 47.2 51.0
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
53.5 61.7 66.1 67.4 73.3 72.3 73.9 75.8 73.6 73.3
In
foreign
currencies
46.5 38.3 33.9 32.6 26.7 27.7 26.1 24.2 26.4 26.7
Euro
1)
15.7 14.6 15.0 18.3 16.7 18.4 18.8 17.7 19.3 19.3
Other
foreign
currencies
30.8
23.7
19.0
14.3
10.0 9.4 7.3 6.5 7.1 7.4
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
50.1 60.0 59.5 58.3 59.3 58.4 60.6 62.9 65.9 62.5
Average residual maturity
(in
years)
5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term (up to and including one year)
9.4
17.4
19.5
20.7
13.5
7.1
5.9
4.5
8.7
8.3
Medium
and
long-term
(over
one
year)
90.6 82.6 80.5 79.3 86.5 92.9 94.1 95.5 91.3 91.7
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
180
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Convergence Report
May 2010
Chart 4
General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
36
38
40
42
44
46
2008
36
38
40
42
44
46
total expenditure
total revenue
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: ESCB.
Chart 3
General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
35
40
45
50
55
2008
35
40
45
50
55
levels
2000
2002
2004
2006
-5
0
5
10
2008
-5
0
5
10
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
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P O L A N D
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
18.9
19.0
27.2
36.0
41.3
55.7
69.0
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
20.5
19.1
17.8
17.9
17.7
17.9
18.1
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Change in general government debt
1)
1.4 2.4 5.9 6.6 2.8 4.1 4.1 2.0 5.6 6.2
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
-3.0 -5.3 -5.0 -6.2 -5.4 -4.1 -3.6 -1.9 -3.7 -7.1
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-1.6
-2.8 1.0 0.4 -2.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.9 -0.9
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
-1.8 -1.7 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.4 -0.8
Currency
and
deposits
0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.2
Loans
and
securities
other
than
shares
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.1
Shares
and
other
equity
-3.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Privatisations
-
-0.9 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4
Equity
injections
- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Other
- -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Other
fi
nancial
assets
0.9 -0.3 0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.7
Valuation changes of general government debt
0.1 -0.8 0.4 1.0 -1.9 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 2.1 -0.1
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
-0.6
-1.1
0.8
1.3
-2.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.9
2.0
-0.3
Other valuation effects
2)
0.7 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Other changes in general government debt
3)
0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.1
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
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May 2010
3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
No
Exchange rate level in April 2008 in PLN/EUR
3.44213
Maximum upward deviation
1)
6.9
Maximum downward deviation
1)
-41.8
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its average level in April 2008 over the period
24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency was
stronger (weaker) than its exchange rate level in April 2008.
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Polish zloty
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008
2009
2010
June Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec. Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
4.7 8.3 21.0 23.6 17.6 13.5 9.3 9.3
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
1.6 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
Chart 5
Polish zloty: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Exchange rate over the reference period
(daily data; average of April 2008 = 100;
24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; average of April 2008 = 100;
April 2000-April 2010)
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
2009
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
2008
140
120
100
80
60
2008
140
120
100
80
60
40
40
160
160
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: ECB.
Note: An upward (downward) movement of the line indicates an appreciation (depreciation) of the Polish zloty.
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P O L A N D
Table 10
Polish zloty: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
7.4
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
4.2
Real effective exchange rate
1), 2)
8.4
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-6.0
-3.1
-2.8
-2.5
-3.6
-0.9
-2.1
-3.6
-3.9
0.1
Current account balance
-6.0
-3.1
-2.8
-2.5
-4.0
-1.2
-2.7
-4.7
-5.1
-1.6
Goods balance
-7.2
-4.0
-3.7
-2.6
-2.2
-0.9
-2.0
-4.0
-4.9
-1.0
Services balance
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.1
1.0
1.1
Income balance
-0.4
-0.3
-0.5
-1.1
-3.2
-2.2
-2.8
-3.8
-2.6
-3.2
Current transfers balance
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.6
Capital account balance
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.6
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
7.4
3.6
2.9
3.1
8.4
6.3
2.3
2.9
1.6
5.5
Direct investment balance
5.5
3.0
2.0
2.0
4.7
2.3
3.1
4.3
2.2
2.0
Portfolio investment balance
1.9
0.6
1.0
1.1
3.7
4.1
-0.9
-1.3
-0.6
3.5
Other investment balance
-1.5
-1.8
1.2
1.3
-5.0
-1.4
1.8
6.5
5.9
3.0
Reserve assets
-0.4
0.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-2.7
-0.8
-3.0
0.8
-3.3
Exports of goods and services
27.1
27.0
28.6
33.3
37.5
37.1
40.3
40.8
40.0
38.9
Imports of goods and services
33.4
30.6
31.9
35.8
39.7
37.8
42.2
43.6
43.9
38.8
Net international investment position
2)
-30.7
-29.5
-34.9
-41.7
-41.6
-42.5
-45.7
-50.1
-56.6
-59.5
Gross external debt
2)
38.7
36.8
40.3
47.6
42.0
44.1
46.6
48.4
56.7
59.4
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
62.0 60.9 59.5 59.9 58.5 56.5 55.2 54.5 53.7 55.9
Imports
of
goods
54.2 55.0 55.6 55.5 60.0 60.6 58.5 58.7 58.0 57.9
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
70.1 73.6 73.1 73.6 74.9 74.3 74.2 74.3 74.7 74.0
Outward direct investment
1)
18.0 23.9 47.5 46.0 46.7 23.0 42.6 35.1 40.3 39.6
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
30.4 41.6 51.0 51.7 58.1 57.1 53.9 47.6
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
37.9 5.9 11.5 23.0 15.6 26.4 37.4 36.5
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
81.2 81.2 81.1 81.9 80.5 78.6 79.0 78.9 77.8 79.3
Imports of goods
69.0 69.7 69.7 69.6 75.2 75.3 73.0 73.3 71.8 72.1
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
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4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
6.2 6.1 6.1 5.7 6.1
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2008
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2002
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2004
2006
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2008
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2002
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2004
2006
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
6.5 6.6 6.1 6.4 5.3 6.9 6.4 5.8 5.0 7.3
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
17.5 13.3 13.7 16.6 23.2 31.4 41.3 43.3 21.0 30.4
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
27.1 27.7 27.5 28.2 26.5 28.4 32.8 39.0 49.4 50.1
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
-
4.4 3.8 4.8 7.6
12.5
12.4
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
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R O M A N I A
5.8 ROMANIA
5.8.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009
to March 2010, the 12-month average rate
of HICP in
fl
ation in Romania was 5.0%,
i.e. considerably above the reference value of 1.0 %
for the criterion on price stability (see Table 1).
On the basis of the most recent information,
the 12-month average rate of HICP in
fl
ation is
expected to decrease in the coming months.
Looking back over a longer period, consumer
price in
fl
ation in Romania has followed a clear
downward trend, albeit from an initially high
level (see Chart 1). HICP in
fl
ation declined
from 45.7% in 2000 to 5.6% in 2009, with the
disin
fl
ation process advancing particularly
rapidly during the period 2000-04, owing
mainly to a strong deceleration in food price
growth and to comprehensive structural reforms
in preparation for EU accession. From 2005
onwards, import price developments were also
strongly supportive of the disin
fl
ation process
on account of the marked appreciation of the
Romanian leu against the euro. In the second
half of 2007, however, in
fl
ation picked up under
the combined effect of a series of supply-side
shocks and increasing demand pressures, before
slowing down again from mid-2008 onwards,
re
fl
ecting lower commodity prices, and the
contraction of economic activity which more
than offset the impact of signi
fi
cant exchange
rate depreciation.
These in
fl
ation developments have taken place
against the background of a number of important
policy choices, most notably the orientation of
monetary policy towards the achievement of
price stability, as enshrined in the central bank
law. Between 2000 and 2004, Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României focused on several policy goals,
including the rebuilding of foreign exchange
reserves, the prevention of excessive currency
appreciation and gradual disin
fl
ation. In 2005
the central bank adopted an in
fl
ation targeting
framework combined with a managed
fl
oating
exchange rate regime. The annual CPI in
fl
ation
targets were initially set at 7.5%, and were reduced
gradually to stand at 3.5% for 2009 and 2010 and
3.0% for 2011. Although
fi
scal policy was rather
loose and detrimental to the disin
fl
ation process,
there was a certain amount of
fi
scal consolidation
between 2001 and 2005. The
fi
scal de
fi
cit relative
to GDP started to rise thereafter and recorded
sharp increases in 2008 and 2009. However,
from 2009 onwards, the Romanian government
implemented the
fi
scal consolidation measures
required under the
fi
nancial assistance programme
led by the EU and the IMF.
In
fl
ation dynamics over the past ten years
should be viewed against a background of
overheating in the economy between 2004
and 2008, followed by a sharp contraction in
economic activity. Headline in
fl
ation, having
been on a downward trend for several years,
picked up in early 2007, from around 4.0%
to around 9.0% in mid-2008. This was due
primarily to a supply-side shock stemming from
food and energy prices, which together make
up roughly 60% of Romaniaâs HICP basket.
HICP in
fl
ation excluding unprocessed food and
energy also accelerated, but more moderately.
This acceleration re
fl
ected not only the strength
of domestic demand, which was increasingly
affected by capacity bottlenecks, but also a tight
labour market and an underdeveloped public
infrastructure. The unemployment rate declined
further in 2008 to 5.8%, from a peak of 8.4% in
2002, and wage growth outpaced productivity
growth, which in turn boosted unit labour cost
growth. The latter grew on average by 14.8%
between 2007 and 2008, contributing to an
erosion of competitiveness. Finally, the increase
in import prices, stemming partly from the
depreciation of the leu from mid-2007 onwards
added to in
fl
ationary pressures. In the course
of 2008, however, the trend in HICP in
fl
ation
reversed, mainly owing to the decline in energy
and food prices followed by a strong contraction
in economic activity from the end of 2008.
Looking at recent developments, in
fl
ationary
pressures continued to moderate in most
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ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
of 2009, with HICP in
fl
ation falling from 6.8%
in January 2009 to 4.3% in October 2009.
However, annual in
fl
ation has increased
somewhat in recent months, standing at
5.2% in January 2010, before falling in
February 2010 to reach 4.2% in March 2010
(see Table 3a). The initial decrease in in
fl
ation
up to October was driven largely by the easing
in in
fl
ationary pressures stemming from energy
and food prices. Despite the sharp contraction
in domestic demand, the HICP excluding
unprocessed food and energy was persistent
and decelerated more moderately, re
fl
ecting
major rigidities in the economy and increases in
tobacco prices owing to the rise in excise duties.
In addition, the depreciation of the currency
contributed to in
fl
ationary pressure. Unit labour
cost growth is estimated to have remained
particularly high in 2009, re
fl
ecting both
relatively strong compensation per employee
growth and the decline in labour productivity
growth, in particular in the agricultural sector.
Nevertheless, signs of an incipient adjustment
in retail price and wage-setting behaviour have
recently become apparent in response to the
protracted deterioration in economic conditions.
Finally, while the share of administered
prices (including energy prices) in Romaniaâs
HICP basket amounted to 24% in 2009, their
contribution to headline in
fl
ation declined in
the course of the year. The increase in in
fl
ation
around the turn of the year mainly re
fl
ected the
tax increase on tobacco and the adjustment in
electricity prices. In addition, from the end of
2009 onwards base effects and the increase in
oil prices added to in
fl
ation. Recent in
fl
ationary
developments should be viewed in the context
of a marked decline in economic activity in
2009. Real GDP growth stood at -1.5% quarter
on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from 4.0%
to 4.4% for 2010 and 3.0% to 3.5% for 2011.
In
fl
ationary pressures should moderate further
in 2010, driven by contracting domestic demand
and high unemployment exerting a dampening
effect on wage formation. The main upside
risks to this outlook relate to the dynamics of
commodity and administered prices. On the
downside, the decline in domestic price
pressures could be larger or more protracted
than currently envisaged if economic activity
recovers more slowly than expected at present.
Looking further ahead, the catching-up process
is likely to have a bearing on in
fl
ation and/or
on the nominal exchange rate over the coming
years, given that GDP per capita and price
levels are still signi
fi
cantly lower in Romania
than in the euro area (see Table 2). However, it
is dif
fi
cult to assess the exact size of the effect
resulting from this catching-up process.
Achieving an environment conducive to
sustainable convergence in Romania requires,
inter alia, stability-oriented monetary policy
and further
fi
scal consolidation in line with
Romaniaâs commitments under the
fi
nancial
assistance programme led by the EU and the IMF
and the requirements under the EDP. As regards
product markets, efforts should be made to
complete the liberalisation of network industries
and boost energy ef
fi
ciency. More generally,
it is of paramount importance to increase the
ef
fi
ciency of public companies. It is also crucial
to further improve the absorption capacity of
EU funds in order to develop and improve the
public infrastructure. With regard to the labour
market, measures should be taken to enhance the
quantity and quality of the labour supply. This
is particularly important in the current context
of rising unemployment in order to avoid a
signi
fi
cant increase in structural unemployment
or a decline in the participation rate. These
measures should include, inter alia, the tailoring
of education to labour market requirements,
the development of training programmes
for the rural population, greater
fl
exibility
in labour contracts and better incentives for
regional mobility. Moreover, wage increases
should re
fl
ect labour productivity growth,
the unemployment rate and developments in
competitor countries. Financial sector policies
should be geared towards preventing excessive
credit growth in the future. Given the potential
risks to
fi
nancial stability associated with the high
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May 2010
R O M A N I A
levels of foreign currency denominated loans in
Romania, macro-prudential measures to reduce
the underlying vulnerabilities related to foreign
currency lending are essential, and warrant
close cooperation between home and host
country supervisory authorities. Such measures
will help to achieve an environment conducive
to sustainable price stability, as well as promote
competitiveness and employment growth.
5.8.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Romania is at present subject to an EU Council
decision on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit.
In the reference year 2009 the general government
budget balance showed a de
fi
cit of 8.3% of GDP,
i.e. signi
fi
cantly above the 3% reference value.
The general government gross debt-to-GDP
ratio was 23.7%, i.e. far below the 60%
reference value (see Table 4). Compared with
the previous year, the budget balance ratio
worsened by 2.9 percentage points and the
public debt ratio increased by 10.4 percentage
points. In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is forecast by
the European Commission to decline to 8.0%
and the government debt ratio is projected to
increase to 30.5%. With regard to other
fi
scal
factors, the de
fi
cit ratio exceeded the ratio
of public investment to GDP in 2009 and is
expected to do so also in 2010.
Looking at developments in Romaniaâs
budgetary position over the period 2000 to 2009,
after declining until 2005, the de
fi
cit-to-GDP
ratio started to rise thereafter and recorded
sharp increases in 2008 and 2009 (see Table 5
and Chart 2a). Despite still very high economic
growth, the budget de
fi
cit rose from 2.5% of
GDP in 2007 to 5.4% of GDP in 2008. In 2009,
given a larger than expected deterioration in
the macroeconomic environment, the budget
de
fi
cit increased to 8.3% of GDP. As the
de
fi
cit-to-GDP ratio rose above the 3% of GDP
reference value in 2008, the ECOFIN Council
decided on 7 July 2009 that an excessive de
fi
cit
situation existed in Romania and initially set the
deadline for correcting it at 2011. This deadline
was extended to 2012 following the ECOFIN
Councilâs recommendation of 12 February 2010.
As is shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
European Commission estimates indicate
that cyclical factors had a continuous positive
impact on the budget balance between 2000 and
2008. Non-cyclical factors contributed overall
to increasing the budget de
fi
cit over the same
period. The largest contribution of non-cyclical
factors to the deterioration in the budget balance
occurred in 2008, owing to signi
fi
cant hikes in
current spending, especially increases in public
wages, pensions and operational expenditure.
In the absence of temporary and one-off
factors during 2005-08, the developments in
the factors underlying the change in the budget
de
fi
cit seem to re
fl
ect a lasting deterioration in
Romaniaâs structural budgetary position, which
is measured as the cyclically adjusted budget
balance net of one-off and temporary measures.
This trend started to reverse in 2009, when
the Romanian government implemented
fi
scal
consolidation measures required under a balance
of payments support programme funded jointly
by the IMF and the European Commission.
The consolidation effort focused mainly on
the expenditure side, with measures to contain
current expenditure such as, in particular, cuts in
government consumption of goods and services
and in personnel expenditure. A reduction
in capital spending and saving on interest
expenditure contributed to containing the 2009
de
fi
cit. However, the de
fi
cit in 2009 missed the
de
fi
cit target (7.8% of GDP) by around 0.5%
of GDP. Assessing how Romaniaâs structural
budgetary position changed during the crisis
is, however, particularly dif
fi
cult in view of
uncertainty over the level and growth rate of
potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2009 the
debt-to-GDP ratio increased cumulatively by
1.2 percentage points, rising steadily from
2006 and strongly in 2009 (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). As shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
the primary budget balance was broadly
neutral during the period 2001-05 and started
to have a debt-increasing impact from 2006
188
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
onwards. The growth/interest rate differential
contributed to the reduction in the debt ratio
during the whole period from 2001 to 2008. By
contrast, the de
fi
cit-debt adjustment factor had a
debt-increasing effect until 2004 and a decreasing
impact thereafter (see Chart 3b). In 2009 the
strong hike in the general government debt-to-
GDP ratio against the background of a sharply
deteriorating macroeconomic environment
re
fl
ected largely an increasing primary de
fi
cit
and a negative growth/interest rate differential.
As regards Romaniaâs general government debt
structure, the share of government debt with a
short-term maturity declined from 20% in 2000
to 9.4% in 2006, but started to increase thereafter
and reached 22.9% in 2009 (see Table 6). Taking
into account the level of the debt ratio,
fi
scal
balances are relatively insensitive to changes in
interest rates. At 61.2% in 2009, the proportion
of government debt denominated in foreign
currency is high, and, given the overall debt
level,
fi
scal balances are relatively sensitive to
changes in exchange rates. During the
fi
nancial
and economic crisis that hit Romania in 2009,
the share of debt with a short-term maturity rose
noticeably, pointing to an increase in debt-related
vulnerabilities. The share of debt denominated
in foreign currency also increased noticeably.
At the same time, the Romanian government has
not incurred contingent liabilities resulting from
government interventions to support
fi
nancial
institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
crisis (see the statistical section).
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure-to-GDP
ratio increased from 38.5% in 2000 to 40.4%
in 2009. During the period under consideration,
and particularly in 2008-09, âcompensation of
employeesâ and âsocial bene
fi
tsâ increased their
share in GDP. Capital spending also increased
as a ratio to GDP, especially following an
acceleration of infrastructure projects in 2006
and 2007. Total government revenue as a share
of GDP remained broadly stable between 2000
and 2007 at around 33% of GDP, despite the
signi
fi
cant reduction in taxation introduced
in 2005 under the
fl
at tax reform. The total
revenue-to-GDP ratio started to decline towards
the end of 2008 and particularly in 2009
following the
fi
nancial and economic crisis,
when it reached 32.1% of GDP.
Looking ahead, Romaniaâs medium-term
fi
scal
policy strategy, as presented in the 2009-12
update of the convergence programme (dated
March 2010 and thus preceding the European
Commission forecasts shown in Table 4),
envisages a gradual reduction in the de
fi
cit-to-
GDP ratio in 2011 (to 4.4% of GDP) in order
to bring it to the 3% reference value in 2012.
According to this
fi
scal strategy, for 2010
the Romanian government is planning for a
reduction in the de
fi
cit of 1.7 percentage points
to 6.3% of GDP. At the same time, the structural
de
fi
cit over the programme period will be above
the medium-term objective of 0.7% of GDP
(speci
fi
ed in line with the Stability and Growth
Pact). The revenue-to-GDP ratio is expected
to increase slightly in 2010 and to level off by
the end of the programme period, given the
projected macroeconomic developments and
expected reductions in income taxes and social
contributions. The projected
fi
scal consolidation
for 2010 and beyond is mainly focused on the
expenditure side, including public sector wage
and pension freezes as well as cuts in public
spending on goods and services. Moreover,
the government gross debt ratio is expected
to increase over the forecast period, reaching
29.7% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on Romaniaâs
public
fi
nances over the long term, as highlighted
in Table 8, a steep ageing of the population is
expected. According to the 2009 projections by
the European Commission and the EUâs
Economic Policy Committee, starting from a
level of 14.7% of GDP in 2010, Romania is
likely to experience a signi
fi
cant increase in
age-related public expenditure amounting to
8.5 percentage points of GDP in the years
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ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
R O M A N I A
to 2060.
19
Under the EU and IMF-led joint
fi
nancial assistance programme, a comprehensive
pension reform is scheduled for adoption
in 2010. A rigorous implementation of this
reform and enhanced vigilance are required, as
actual demographic and economic developments
may turn out to be less favourable than assumed
in the projections. In the European Commissionâs
2009 Sustainability Report, Romania is assessed
to be at high risk with regard to the sustainability
of its public
fi
nances.
20
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, Romania must
bring its budget de
fi
cit below the 3% reference
value by 2012 in line with the EDP requirements
and ful
fi
l the commitments agreed in the context
of the EU and IMF-led
fi
nancial assistance
programme. This requires implementing the
measures proposed on the expenditure side
in the 2010 budget and beyond, and taking
additional measures, including on the revenue
side, should these not be suf
fi
cient. In particular,
it will be essential to adopt and implement the
pension reform plan in order to reduce risks
to the sustainability of public
fi
nances over
the long run. At the same time, the quality of
public
fi
nances should be further improved by
strengthening the role of productivity-enhancing
public investment. Romaniaâs
fi
scal policy
strategy should be supported by the adoption
and rigorous implementation of the revised
fi
scal framework embedded in the draft
fi
scal
responsibility law, which relates to the
fi
eld of
fi
scal governance.
5.8.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Over the two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010, the Romanian
leu did not participate in ERM II, but traded
under a
fl
exible exchange rate regime
(see Table 9a). The leu was subject to strong
depreciation pressures between mid-2008
and early 2009 and has thereafter slightly
recovered against the euro. Over the reference
period, the Romanian currency mostly traded
substantially weaker than its April 2008
average exchange rate of 3.64281 leu per euro,
which is used as a benchmark for illustrative
purposes in the absence of an ERM II central
rate. The maximum upward deviation from
this benchmark was 4.5%, while the maximum
downward deviation amounted to 19.3% (see
Chart 5 and Table 9a). On 25 March 2009 an
international
fi
nancial assistance package, led by
the EU and the IMF, was agreed for Romania,
totalling âŹ20 billion over the period to the
fi
rst
quarter of 2011, with the aim of putting the
economy onto a sound and sustainable growth
path. As the agreement helped reduce
fi
nancial
vulnerabilities, it contributed to reducing
exchange rate pressures.
Looking at these developments in more detail,
the sharp depreciation of the leu took place
against the background of a deteriorating
outlook for Romaniaâs economy, as re
fl
ected in
a downgrade of the Romanian sovereign credit
rating towards the end of 2008, investor concerns
about external vulnerabilities and heightened
uncertainty in global
fi
nancial
markets
following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in
September 2008. As a consequence, between
October 2008 and January 2009 the leu
depreciated by almost 20% to around 4.35 lei
per euro. After a gradual normalisation of
global
fi
nancial market conditions the leu
strengthened somewhat to trade at 4.12 lei per
euro on 23 April 2010, i.e. 13.2% weaker than
its average level in April 2008.
Until April 2009 the exchange rate of the
Romanian leu against the euro showed a high
degree of volatility, as measured by annualised
standard deviations of daily percentage
changes. Thereafter, in the context of gradual
normalisation of global
fi
nancial market
conditions, volatility decreased, although
it still remained at relatively high levels.
Short-term interest rate differentials against the
three-month EURIBOR remained on average at
a high level, of around 9.1 percentage points,
for the entire reference period, on account of
both the in
fl
ation differential vis-Ă -vis the euro
and the unfavourable outlook for Romaniaâs
â2009 Ageing Reportâ, European Commission and Economic
19
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
20
190
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
economy, as re
fl
ected in a downgrade of the
Romanian sovereign credit rating by rating
agencies and the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. The spread stood at 6.5 percentage points
in the three-month period ending in March 2010
(see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Romanian leu was
somewhat above its ten-year historical averages,
both bilaterally against the euro and in effective
terms (see Table 10). However, these measures
should be interpreted with caution, as in this
period Romania was subject to a process of
economic convergence, which complicates
any historical assessment of real exchange rate
developments.
As regards other external developments,
between 2002 and 2007 Romania reported
a progressive increase in the de
fi
cit in its
combined current and capital account of the
balance of payments, which reached double-digit
levels in the period 2006 to 2008. This
development was mainly driven by the rising
goods de
fi
cit, which was in turn partly due to
robust growth in domestic demand. While high
current and capital account de
fi
cits may have
been partly associated with the catching-up
process of an economy like Romaniaâs, de
fi
cits
of such magnitude have raised concerns about
their sustainability. Indeed the need to correct
these large de
fi
cits was obvious at the beginning
of the far-reaching adjustment process Romania
had to undergo following the overheating period.
Following a strong fall in domestic demand,
which led to lower imports, the de
fi
cit decreased
from 11.1% of GDP in 2008 to 4.0% in 2009.
This shift in the current and capital account
balance mainly re
fl
ected the sharp decline in the
goods de
fi
cit and, to a lesser extent, the reduction
in the income de
fi
cit. The shifts recorded in
the balance of payments of Romania over the
past two years have been associated with a
sharp contraction of capital in
fl
ows, against the
background of the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. From a
fi
nancing perspective, the external
de
fi
cit was mainly covered by net in
fl
ows in
direct and other investment until 2008. Net
in
fl
ows in portfolio investment were rather
volatile and did not contribute signi
fi
cantly to
fi
nancing Romaniaâs current account de
fi
cit.
However, in 2009 other investment decreased
substantially on account of the global
fi
nancial
strains. Against this background, gross external
debt increased from 36.0% of GDP in 2000 to
56.0% and 68.9% in 2008 and 2009 respectively.
In addition, the countryâs net international
investment position deteriorated substantially,
from -26.9% of GDP in 2000 to -53.4% and
-61.9% of GDP in 2008 and 2009 respectively.
Romania is a small, open economy: the ratio
of its foreign trade in goods and services to
GDP increased from 30.3% in 2008 to 31.2%
in 2009 for exports, while it decreased from
43.5% in 2008 to 37.3% in 2009 for imports
(see Table 11). With the normalisation of
global
fi
nancial market conditions, reaching and
maintaining a sustainable long-term external
position will largely depend on implementation
of the appropriate domestic economic policies.
Concerning measures of economic integration
with the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods
to the euro area constituted 57.7% of total
exports, whereas the corresponding
fi
gure
for imports amounted to 53.2%. The share
of euro area countries in Romaniaâs inward
direct investment stood at 82.2% in 2009 and
in its portfolio investment liabilities at 65.0%
in 2008. The share of Romaniaâs assets invested
in the euro area amounted to 19.1% in the case
of direct investment in 2009 and 19.1% for
portfolio investment in 2008 (see Table 12).
5.8.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010 long-term interest rates in Romania
were 9.4% on average and thus well above
the 6.0% reference value for the interest rate
convergence criterion (see Table 13).
191
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R O M A N I A
From late 2005, despite signi
fi
cantly decreasing
in
fl
ation, Romanian long-term interest rates
increased until the end of 2006 (see Chart 6a).
21
In early 2007 they started to move somewhat
downward in an environment of monetary policy
easing. From November 2007 long-term interest
rates were on a moderate upward trend, reaching
7.3% in July 2008. A deteriorating economic
situation, slowing growth and a decline in
consumer con
fi
dence were mirrored towards the
end of 2008 by downgrades of Romaniaâs rating
outlook by several rating agencies. From
August 2008 the global
fi
nancial and economic
crisis contributed to a rise in the country risk
premium and liquidity strains in the market, and
the Romanian long-term interest rate increased
and became highly volatile. In mid-2009 the
international
fi
nancial assistance package led by
the EU and the IMF was approved. However,
long-term interest rates reached elevated levels
at 11.5% during the summer of 2009.
Additionally, political uncertainties during the
autumn of 2009 contributed to a rise in the
country risk premium. An easing of in
fl
ationary
pressures from mid-2009 onwards and the
upgrading of Romaniaâs rating outlook from
negative to stable at the beginning of 2010
supported the pronounced decline in long-term
interest rates, which, nevertheless, still remained
at relatively elevated levels, at 7.1% in March
2010. Developments in Romanian long-term
interest rates should be interpreted with caution,
however, as the market for Romanian
government bonds is rather illiquid and is
characterised by a limited number of
transactions.
Between 2005 and 2007 the spread between
long-term interest rates in Romania and average
bond yields in the euro area
fl
uctuated in a range
between 4% and 2.2%, reaching the historical
low of 2.2% in July 2007. This was owing to
a combination of declining long-term interest
rates in Romania and higher long-term interest
rates in the euro area. In parallel with changes
in the in
fl
ation differential between Romania
and the euro area, the long-term interest rate
differential increased from the second half of
2007 until the middle of 2009. The in
fl
ation
differential vis-Ă -vis the euro area started to
decrease gradually from March 2009, whereas
the interest rate differential widened, reaching a
peak of 7.7 percentage points in August 2009.
Subsequently the interest rate differential
declined considerably, but still it remained at
the relatively elevated level of 3.5 percentage
points in March 2010.
The Romanian capital market is much
smaller than that in the euro area and remains
underdeveloped (see Table 14). By international
standards, the corporate bond market is still at
an early stage in terms of volume of issuance
and the amount of debt securities issued by
corporations reached just 0.2% of GDP at
the end of 2009. Bucharest Stock Exchange
capitalisation declined sharply in 2008 and
the beginning of 2009 and reached 10.3% of
GDP in December 2009. Bank
fi
nancing is less
developed than in other countries (amounting
to 40.7% of GDP at the end of 2009).
Foreign-owned banks, primarily from the euro
area, play a major role in the Romanian banking
sector. Around 60% of loans to the private
sector are issued in foreign currency. The
international claims of euro area banks in the
country are relatively high, reaching 27.3% of
total liabilities in 2009.
Data are available on the reference long-term interest rate for
21
Romania from 2005 onwards.
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May 2010
R O M A N I A
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
ROMANIA
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
194
Chart 1
Price developments
194
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
194
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
195
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
195
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
195
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
196
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
196
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
197
(a) Levels
197
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
197
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
197
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
198
(a) Levels
198
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
198
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
198
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
199
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
199
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
200
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Romanian leu
200
Chart 5
Romanian leu: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
200
(a) Exchange rate over the
reference period
200
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
200
Table 10 Romanian leu: real
exchange rate developments
201
Table 11 External developments
201
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
201
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
202
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
202
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
202
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development and
integration
202
194
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May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
T a b l e 1 HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
4.7
5.2
4.5
4.2
5.0
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
C h a r t 1 Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-20
0
20
40
60
80
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
2008
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
45.7
34.5
22.5
15.3
11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 7.9 5.6
HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy
-
-
19.0
15.1
12.2
6.3
5.8
5.5
7.6
6.6
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
10.9 8.1 5.4 4.2 7.1 4.0
CPI
45.7
34.5
22.5
15.3
11.9 9.0 6.6 4.8 7.9 5.6
Private consumption de
fl
ator
37.6
34.5
20.3
15.8
12.7 6.9 4.9 4.8 9.5 3.3
GDP de
fl
ator
43.3 37.8 22.7 23.4 15.5 12.2 10.6 13.5 15.2 2.8
Producer prices
2)
56.4 39.4 25.3 18.3 19.2 10.8 10.3 8.4 12.8 2.1
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
2.4 5.7 5.1 5.2 8.5 4.2 7.9 6.3 7.3 -7.1
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
23.2 24.8 26.4 28.3 31.2 31.9 35.1 38.1
-
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
42.4
41.5
42.7
42.1
42.0
53.3
56.5
62.8
58.6
-
Output gap
4)
-9.6 -6.1 -3.1 -1.1 3.5 3.5 6.6 7.4 9.3 -1.8
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
6.9 6.4 8.4 7.0 8.0 7.2 7.3 6.4 5.8 6.9
Unit labour costs, whole economy
64.5
45.4
-0.6
21.5
3.1
21.6
4.9
15.2
14.5
-
Compensation
per
employee,
whole
economy
69.8 55.1 16.2 28.0 13.7 28.6 12.4 22.0 23.2
-
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
3.2 6.7
16.9 5.3
10.3 5.7 7.2 5.9 7.6
-
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
35.5 30.9 15.7 14.9 8.9 -2.9 -0.4 -7.6 15.5 2.8
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
-23.3
-16.3
-13.7 -6.4 11.0 2.6 6.7 -8.5
-12.2
Money
supply
(M3)
-
-
-
-
- 40.0 31.1 31.5 13.4 7.4
Lending
from
banks
30.0 57.6 51.9 68.6 35.4 52.2 61.4 56.1 25.0 -1.6
Stock prices (The Bucharest Exchange BET index)
8.1
-4.8 126.9
26.0 103.8
38.0
28.5
32.6
-70.3
37.3
Residential
property
prices
-
-
- 39.5 30.7 63.8 53.2 51.5 -10.9 -27.8
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines. The data for the reference periods from 2000 to 2004 are provided by the Romanian
national statistical institute.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
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R O M A N I A
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
4.6
4.7
5.2
4.5
4.2
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
3.2
3.7
5.7
6.7
7.6
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
3.9
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.4
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
4.3
3.0
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1)
-
-
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
4.0 3.1
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
4.4
3.5
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
1) Romania is not an OECD member.
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2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008 2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-5.4
-8.3
-8.0
Reference value
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
0.1
-2.9
-2.6
General government gross debt
13.3
23.7
30.5
Reference value
60.0
60.0
60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
33.8 32.5 33.0 32.0 32.3 32.3 33.1 33.5 32.1 32.1
Current
revenue
33.7 32.4 32.9 31.9 31.9 32.0 32.9 33.4 32.0 31.7
Direct
taxes
7.0 6.4 5.8 6.0 6.4 5.3 6.0 6.7 6.7 6.6
Indirect
taxes
12.2 11.3 11.6 12.3 11.7 12.9 12.8 12.3 11.7 11.0
Social
security
contributions
11.4 11.2 11.1 9.9 9.7 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.1 10.4
Other
current
revenue
3.1 3.5 4.4 3.8 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.7
Capital
revenue
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3
Total expenditure
38.5 36.0 35.0 33.5 33.5 33.5 35.3 36.0 37.6 40.4
Current
expenditure
34.5 32.9 31.6 29.9 30.5 29.6 30.2 30.4 32.0 35.0
Compensation
of
employees
7.9 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.7 9.1 9.3
10.0
10.6
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
9.7 9.7 9.3 8.4 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.2
10.4
12.9
Interest
payable
3.9 3.4 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.5
of
which:
impact
of
swaps
and
FRAs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
current
expenditure
13.1 11.4 11.3 11.6 12.2 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.9 9.9
Capital
expenditure
3.9 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.0 3.9 5.1 5.7 5.6 5.4
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
-4.7 -3.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 -2.5 -5.4 -8.3
Primary
balance
-0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -1.3 -1.8 -4.7 -6.8
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
-1.2 -0.8 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.7 3.0 3.2 0.1 -2.9
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
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R O M A N I A
C h a r t 2 General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-10
-5
0
2008
-10
-5
0
levels
2000
2002
2004
2006
-4
-2
0
2
2008
-4
-2
0
2
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as
a
percentage
of
GDP)
22.5 25.7 24.9 21.5 18.7 15.8 12.4 12.6 13.3 23.7
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In
domestic
currency
35.9 29.4 27.9 19.2 24.1 19.0 21.5 34.4 41.8 38.8
In
foreign
currencies
64.1 70.6 72.1 80.8 75.9 81.0 78.5 65.6 58.2 61.2
Euro
1)
20.4 24.3 33.1 44.8 48.3 51.5 50.1 47.0 42.5 49.9
Other
foreign
currencies
43.6 46.3 39.0 36.0 27.6 29.5 28.4 18.5 15.6 11.3
Domestic ownership
(%
of
total)
30.6 37.9 35.1 28.4 28.2 30.0 20.7 31.6 42.9 50.7
Average residual maturity
(in
years)
3.9 4.0 4.1 4.7 4.8 5.6 7.6 5.9 4.0 5.7
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term (up to and including one year)
20.0 17.2 24.8 12.9 16.2 6.4 9.4 12.9 18.5 22.9
Medium and long-term (over one year)
80.0 82.8 75.2 87.1 83.8 93.6 90.6 87.1 81.5 77.1
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
198
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May 2010
C h a r t 3 General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
10
15
20
25
30
2008
10
15
20
25
30
levels
2000
2002
2004
2006
-10
0
10
20
2008
-10
0
10
20
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
C h a r t 4 General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
2008
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
total expenditure
total revenue
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: ESCB.
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May 2010
R O M A N I A
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Change in general government debt
1)
7.7
10.3 4.9 2.3 1.6 -0.3 -0.9 2.3 3.2 9.8
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
-4.7
-3.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 -2.5 -5.4 -8.3
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
3.0 6.8 2.9 0.9 0.4 -1.4 -3.1 -0.2 -2.3 1.5
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
0.5 1.9 1.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 -0.5 0.9 -1.4 1.6
Currency
and
deposits
0.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 1.8 0.4 1.7 -0.1 -1.1 1.8
Loans and securities other than shares
0.3
-0.1
0.8
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
Shares
and
other
equity
-0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -1.2 -0.5 -2.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Privatisations
-0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -1.2 -0.5 -2.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Equity
injections
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other
fi
nancial
assets
0.6 1.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.1 -0.3 -0.2
Valuation changes of general government debt
2.6 2.8 2.4 1.1 -0.6 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 1.2 0.4
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
2.8
1.6
2.1
1.3
-0.8
-0.3
-1.3
0.1
1.0
0.5
Other valuation effects
2)
-0.2 1.3 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1
Other changes in general government debt
3)
-0.1 2.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -2.1 -0.6
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t,
i.e. [debt(t)-debt(t-1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion of the population aged 15-64)
21.3
21.3
25.7
30.3
40.7
54.0
65.3
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
14.0
14.7
15.1
17.0
19.3
22.0
23.2
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
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3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
No
Exchange rate level in April 2008 in RON/EUR
3.64281
Maximum upward deviation
1)
4.5
Maximum downward deviation
1)
-19.3
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its average level in April 2008 over the period
24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency was
stronger (weaker) than its exchange rate level in April 2008.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Romanian leu
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008 2009
2010
June Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec. Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
8.3
10.0
15.0 8.7 6.3 3.4 4.1 5.5
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
6.4 7.2 11.8 12.5 10.4 8.2 9.4 6.5
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
C h a r t 5 Romanian leu: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Exchange rate over the reference period
(daily data; average of April 2008 = 100;
24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rate over the last ten years
(monthly data; average of April 2008 = 100;
April 2000-April 2010)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2009
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2008
140
120
100
80
60
2008
140
120
100
80
60
160
160
40
40
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: ECB.
Note: An upward (downward) movement of the line indicates an appreciation (depreciation) of the Romanian leu.
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R O M A N I A
Table 10
Romanian leu: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
11.3
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
-16.9
Real effective exchange rate
1), 2)
11.9
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
-3.7 -5.3 -3.1 -5.6 -7.5 -7.9
-10.5
-12.8
-11.1 -4.0
Current
account
balance
-3.8 -5.5 -3.3 -5.9 -8.3 -8.6
-10.4
-13.5
-11.5 -4.5
Goods
balance
-4.8 -7.4 -5.7 -7.6 -8.7 -9.8
-12.0
-14.3
-13.6 -5.9
Services
balance
-0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 -0.3
Income
balance
-0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -2.3 -4.2 -2.9 -3.3 -3.3 -2.6 -1.8
Current
transfers
balance
2.3 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.9 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.3 3.5
Capital
account
balance
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.5
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
3.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 7.7 7.5 8.7 6.0 6.2 4.2
Direct
investment
balance
3.0 2.9 3.5 3.7 8.4 6.6 8.9 5.7 6.7 3.8
Portfolio
investment
balance
0.4 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.7 1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.4
Other
investment
balance
2.8 2.8 3.9 3.6 6.3 6.6 6.3
11.2 6.5 2.0
Reserve
assets
-2.6 -3.6 -3.9 -1.9 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3 -3.5 0.1 -1.0
Exports
of
goods
and
services
32.7 33.1 35.3 34.7 35.8 33.0 32.3 29.2 30.3 31.2
Imports
of
goods
and
services
38.1 40.7 41.0 42.2 44.8 43.2 44.3 43.2 43.5 37.3
Net international investment position
2)
-26.9 -25.0 -21.2 -27.1 -26.4 -29.5 -36.2 -47.1 -53.4 -61.9
Gross external debt
2)
36.0 35.0 37.3 37.2 34.5 39.4 40.4 50.9 56.0 68.9
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
58.4 63.2 61.7 61.1 59.4 54.7 54.0 54.4 53.4 57.7
Imports
of
goods
51.7 53.8 54.6 54.5 52.3 49.3 49.9 53.8 51.2 53.2
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
-
-
-
70.4 71.0 76.3 80.9 80.8 82.7 82.2
Outward direct investment
1)
-
-
-
-
-
2.4 0.4 1.8
10.9
19.1
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
51.0 53.2 52.3 66.7 71.3 70.5 81.2 65.0
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
54.8 50.2 76.4 98.2 98.5 20.9 22.8 19.1
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
72.2 75.2 73.7 75.3 74.7 70.1 70.3 72.0 70.6 74.3
Imports
of
goods
65.2 67.1 68.2 68.2 65.9 63.0 63.4 71.3 69.7 73.3
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
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4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
8.7 9.1 7.9 7.1 9.4
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
1.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.8 6.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.2
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
1.2 3.0 5.5 5.6
12.8
17.1
18.8
18.1 8.2
10.3
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
-
-
-
-
16.6 20.7 26.9 35.7 38.5 40.7
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
27.2 33.0 27.3
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
C h a r t 6 Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
6.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2009
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2009
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
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S W E D E N
5.9 SWEDEN
5.9.1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, the 12-month average rate of HICP
in
fl
ation in Sweden was 2.1%, i.e. well above
the reference value of 1.0% for the criterion on
price stability (see Table 1). Looking ahead,
the 12-month average rate of HICP in
fl
ation is
expected to remain broadly constant in the next
few months.
Looking back over a longer period, in
fl
ation
developments in Sweden have generally been
stable (see Chart 1), re
fl
ecting the countryâs
advanced economic development and the
credibility of monetary policy underpinned by
moderate wage formation. Annual HICP in
fl
ation
has risen occasionally above 2.0%, mirroring
developments in global commodity markets,
episodes of depreciation of the Swedish krona
against the major global currencies and escalated
wage growth in times of declining productivity.
Nevertheless, these periods of higher in
fl
ation
have been sporadic. In 2009 on average annual
HICP in
fl
ation stood at 1.9%.
Swedenâs long-term in
fl
ation performance
re
fl
ects a number of economic policy choices,
most notably the orientation of monetary policy
towards the achievement of price stability.
Since 1995 Sveriges Riksbank has followed
an in
fl
ation target, quanti
fi
ed as an annual
rise of 2% in the CPI, with a tolerance margin
of Âą1 percentage point. Prudent
fi
scal policy
and moderate wage formation have generally
been supportive in achieving price stability
in Sweden.
Earlier this decade, Sweden â a small and open
economy â enjoyed dynamic real GDP growth,
driven mainly by robust external demand.
Low volatility in global
fi
nancial markets, good
access of the private sector to debt
fi
nancing
and a relatively stable krona exchange
rate created an environment conducive to
new investment. Productivity gains, along
with relatively moderate compensation per
employee growth, kept in
fl
ation stable.
In addition, labour market reforms implemented
from the mid-2000s onwards facilitated a
gradual decline in the unemployment rate,
which in turn boosted private consumption
growth. Later on, accelerating unit labour cost
growth, the global energy and food price shock
and the sharp depreciation of the krona resulted
in higher in
fl
ation in Sweden. HICP in
fl
ation
was around 1.5% during the period 2006-07
and increased to 3.3% in 2008. The presence of
demand factors driving the increase in in
fl
ation
is also evident from the other relevant indices,
such as the HICP excluding unprocessed food
and energy (see Table 2).
Looking at recent developments, the annual rate
of HICP in
fl
ation was around 2.0% in the
fi
rst
half of 2009, declining only marginally before
increasing again, to reach 2.5% in March 2010.
In
fl
ation developments were thereby in line
with Sveriges Riksbankâs in
fl
ation target.
The reaction of in
fl
ation to the sharp contraction
in economic activity in the aftermath of the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis was limited
owing to a signi
fi
cant depreciation of the krona
and the lagged impact of past increases in unit
labour costs. The increase in in
fl
ation in recent
months was driven by higher energy prices
resulting from both a base effect related to
past developments in global commodity prices
and higher electricity prices (see Table 3a).
Sweden, and in particular its export-oriented
manufacturing sector, was hard hit by the
global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. The sharp
drop in external demand resulted in a wave of
lay-offs in the sector, and there was a slump
in investment activity. The employment cuts
were, however, less pronounced compared with
the fall in production. Together with a sluggish
adjustment in compensation per employee
growth, this resulted in a gradual deceleration
in unit labour costs growth. The Swedish
economy contracted by 4.9% in 2009 and is
now operating with sizeable spare capacity.
After several quarters of uneven economic
performance, there are signs of gradual
economic recovery, supported by increasing
foreign demand.
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May 2010
The latest available in
fl
ation forecasts from
major international institutions range from
1.3% to 2.4% in 2010 and from 1.6% to 3.2%
in 2011. This rather benign in
fl
ation outlook
is expected to be the result of spare capacity
in the economy and the gradual economic
recovery. Furthermore, recently concluded
wage negotiations indicate only moderate
wage increases for the period 2010-12 and
should therefore also contribute to low and
stable in
fl
ation. The lagged impact of the recent
appreciation of the krona constitutes a source
of downside risk, while a stronger rebound
in global commodity prices could drive up
in
fl
ation more than currently expected. Looking
ahead, the fact that the price level in Sweden is
still relatively high compared with the euro area
average (see Table 2) suggests that further trade
integration and increased competition may have
a downward effect on prices.
Maintaining price stability is a prerequisite for
sustainable economic growth in Sweden over
the medium term. This requires, inter alia,
maintaining stability-oriented monetary
policy and the continuation of prudent
fi
scal
policy, including the strict and timely
phasing-out of the expansionary
fi
scal policies,
and moderate wage formation. It is essential to
further improve the functioning of the labour
market, which has been severely affected
by the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis.
Reforms should focus mainly on measures
aimed at preventing employment losses
leading to a structural deterioration in the
unemployment level. In addition, more
fl
exible
employment protection legislation for regular
employment could encourage the hiring of
new workers. Financial sector policies should
ensure that the banking sector is robust enough
to withstand potential negative shocks related
to exposures to other countries. It is crucial
that economic policy focuses on strengthening
the competitiveness of the corporate sector by
removing administrative barriers and fostering
competition in product markets.
5.9.2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Sweden is not subject to an EU Council decision
on the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit. In the
reference year 2009 the general government
budget balance showed a de
fi
cit of 0.5% of
GDP, i.e. well below the 3% de
fi
cit reference
value. The general government debt-to-GDP
ratio was 42.3% of GDP, i.e. below the 60%
reference value (see Table 4). Compared with the
previous year, the budget balance deteriorated
by 3.0 percentage points, and the government
debt ratio increased by 4.0 percentage points.
In 2010 the de
fi
cit ratio is forecast by the
European Commission to increase to 2.1% of
GDP and the government debt ratio is projected
to rise to 42.6%. With regard to other
fi
scal
factors, the de
fi
cit ratio did not exceed the ratio
of public investment to GDP in 2009.
Looking at developments in Swedenâs
budgetary position over the period 2000-09,
the budget was in surplus in 2000 and, with
the exception of 2002 and 2003, recorded
surpluses until 2008, before turning into a
de
fi
cit in 2009 (see Table 5 and Chart 2a).
As is shown in greater detail in Chart 2b,
European Commission estimates indicate
that the deterioration in the budget
balance in 2001 and 2002 mainly re
fl
ected
non-cyclical factors, such as an income tax
reform and expansionary public spending
policies. By contrast, non-cyclical factors
tended to contribute to an improvement in the
budgetary position over the period 2003-07.
In spite of some de
fi
cit-reducing temporary
measures in 2004, this seems to re
fl
ect mainly
a lasting improvement in Swedenâs structural
budgetary position, which is measured as the
cyclically adjusted budget balance net of one-
off and temporary measures. When the
fi
nancial
and economic crisis began in 2008, the Swedish
government gave the automatic stabilisers
room to operate, which partly explains the large
de
fi
cit-increasing impact of cyclical factors
in 2008. In addition, the Swedish government
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May 2010
S W E D E N
implemented comprehensive
fi
scal stimulus
measures, in particular in 2009, which
contributed to the rapid budgetary deterioration
in 2009 compared with 2008. Assessing how
Swedenâs structural budgetary position changed
during the crisis is, however, particularly
dif
fi
cult in view of uncertainty over the level
and growth rate of potential output.
Turning to developments in general government
gross debt, between 2000 and 2009 the
debt-to-GDP ratio declined cumulatively
by 11.3 percentage points (see Chart 3a and
Table 6). Looking at the factors underlying
this decline in public debt, primary surpluses in
particular and â from 2004 to 2007 â the growth/
interest rate differential contributed favourably
to this development (see Chart 3b). Noticeable
debt-increasing de
fi
cit-debt
adjustments
occurred in 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2009, mainly
re
fl
ecting government purchases of
fi
nancial
assets (see Table 7 and the statistical section).
In 2009 the general government debt-to-GDP
ratio increased notably in a deteriorating
macroeconomic environment, giving rise to a
negative growth/interest rate differential.
As regards Swedenâs general government
debt structure, the share of public debt with a
short-term maturity was relatively high in
the period under review (see Table 6). Fiscal
balances are therefore relatively sensitive to
changes in interest rates. At the same time,
at 14.3% the proportion of government debt
denominated in foreign currency was
noticeable in 2009, re
fl
ecting a signi
fi
cant
increase compared with 2008, mostly owing
to government borrowing on behalf of the
central bank to strengthen the central bankâs
foreign exchange reserves. Given the level of
the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the
fi
scal
balances are, however, relatively insensitive to
changes in exchange rates. At the same time,
the Swedish government has incurred a sizeable
amount of contingent liabilities resulting from
government interventions to support
fi
nancial
institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
crisis (see the statistical section).
Moving on to examine trends in other
fi
scal
indicators, Chart 4 and Table 5 show that the
general government total expenditure ratio
declined from 55.6% of GDP in 2000 to 52.5%
in 2007, re
fl
ecting a fall in current expenditure
(by 3.4 percentage points) related to, inter alia,
a downsizing of public administration, lower
interest payable (by 1.7 percentage points) and
reductions in social bene
fi
ts (by 1.8 percentage
points). In 2008 the downward trend reversed
and a steep increase in the expenditure ratio
was recorded in 2008 and 2009, cumulatively
amounting to 3.8 percentage points. This
increase is mainly attributable to the decline
in GDP (denominator effect) and an increase
in social bene
fi
ts. At 56.3% of GDP in 2009,
the expenditure ratio is high in comparison
with other countries with a similar level of
per capita income. Government revenue in
relation to GDP followed a volatile trend.
After declining by 4 percentage points from
2000 to 2002 it was subject to a cumulative
increase of almost 2 percentage points over
the period 2003-05. From 2006 the total
revenue-to-GDP ratio followed a declining trend
that halted in 2009, when a slight increase was
recorded relative to 2008.
Looking ahead, according to Swedenâs
medium-term
fi
scal strategy, as presented in the
2009-12 update of the convergence programme
(dated January 2010 and thus preceding the
European Commission forecasts shown in
Table 4), the governmentâs
fi
scal strategy
envisages a budget de
fi
cit of 1.1% of GDP
in 2012. For 2010, the convergence programme
suggests that the government expects an
additional deterioration in the budget balance of
1.2 percentage points. According to this
fi
scal
strategy, the structural balance will be below the
medium-term objective speci
fi
ed in the Stability
and Growth Pact, which is quanti
fi
ed in the
convergence programme as a structural surplus
of 1% of GDP. The total revenue-to-GDP
ratio is anticipated to fall by 1 percentage point,
re
fl
ecting, inter alia, cuts in earned income
taxes and social contributions. At the same
time, the total expenditure ratio is expected
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ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
to decline by 2.2 percentage points over the
programme horizon, re
fl
ecting, inter alia,
a reduction in government spending on pensions
and a recovery in GDP (denominator effect).
Furthermore, after rising to 45.5% of GDP
in 2010, government gross debt is projected to
slightly decrease over the programme horizon,
reaching 45.2% of GDP in 2012.
Turning to factors impacting on Swedenâs
public
fi
nances over the long term, as indicated
in Table 8, the country is facing a marked
increase in the old age dependency ratio.
According to the 2009 projections of the
European Commission and the EUâs Economic
Policy Committee, starting from a level of
27.1% of GDP in 2010, Sweden is likely to
experience a notable increase in age-related
government expenditure between 2010 and
2060, amounting to 2.6 percentage points.
22
This
re
fl
ects in part the implementation of pension
reforms in the 1990s, which, inter alia,
established a second, privately-funded pillar.
However, continued vigilance is required as
actual demographic, economic and
fi
nancial
developments may turn out to be less favourable
than expected. In the European Commissionâs
2009 Sustainability Report, Sweden is assessed
to be at low risk with regard to the sustainability
of its public
fi
nances.
23
Turning to
fi
scal challenges, it is important
that the envisaged phasing-out of expansionary
fi
scal policies implemented during the crisis is
pursued in a strict and timely manner. Moreover,
further consolidation efforts may be required to
counter the risk that growth may not return to
pre-crisis levels for an extended period of time.
The rules-based
fi
scal framework consisting,
inter alia, of an expenditure ceiling and a
structural surplus target over the business cycle,
has been bene
fi
cial to
fi
scal performance and
should anchor Swedenâs budgetary consolidation
strategy in the years to come.
5.9.3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
In the two-year reference period from
24 April 2008 to 23 April 2010, the Swedish
krona did not participate in ERM II, but
traded under a
fl
exible exchange rate regime
(see Table 9a). In this period the krona depreciated
sharply against the euro until March 2009,
appreciating thereafter. Over the reference
period, the Swedish currency mostly traded
substantially weaker than its April 2008 average
exchange rate, which is used as a benchmark
for illustrative purposes in the absence of an
ERM II central rate. The maximum upward
deviation from this benchmark was 1.0%, while
the maximum downward deviation amounted
to 25.0% (see Chart 5 and Table 9a). In 2009
Sveriges Riksbank took several measures to
promote stability in the
fi
nancial system, some
of which involved foreign currency. Speci
fi
cally,
Sveriges Riksbank drew down EUR 3 billion on
its existing swap line with the ECB in June 2009
in order to boost its foreign currency reserves.
Furthermore, Sveriges Riksbank announced that
it had entered into a swap facility agreement
with the US Federal Reserve System for USD 10
billion in September 2008. Among the foreign
currency measures, Sveriges Riksbank granted
swap facilities to the Central Bank of Iceland of
up to EUR 500 million in exchange for Icelandic
krona in May 2008 and to Latvijas Banka of
EUR 375 million in exchange for Latvian lats
in December 2008. In contrast, a precautionary
arrangement between Sveriges Riksbank and
Eesti Pank announced in February 2009 was
denominated in domestic currency and gave Eesti
Pank the option to borrow up to SEK 10 billion
against Estonian kroons in order to safeguard
fi
nancial stability. All these agreements had
expired by the end of 2009. As they helped to
reduce
fi
nancial vulnerabilities, they might also
have had an impact on the exchange rate of the
Swedish krona.
Looking at recent developments in more detail,
the sharp depreciation of the Swedish krona
primarily re
fl
ected the deteriorating outlook for
Swedenâs economy, investor concerns about
â2009 Ageing Report, Europeanâ Commission and Economic
22
Policy Committee.
âSustainability Report 2009â, European Commission.
23
207
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
S W E D E N
external vulnerabilities in the region, including the
involvement of Swedish banks in the economies
of the Baltic States, and the heightened uncertainty
in global
fi
nancial markets following the collapse
of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
At the beginning of March 2009 the krona
reached a low vis-Ă -vis the euro of around
11.7 kronor per euro. Thereafter, the gradual
normalisation of
fi
nancial market conditions
and the improvement in investorsâ perceptions
of the Baltic States, in which Swedish banks are
very active, contributed to the rebound of the
Swedish krona against the euro. The Swedish
currency traded at 9.59 kronor per euro on
23 April 2010, i.e. 2.4% weaker than its average
level in April 2008.
The exchange rate of the Swedish krona against
the euro showed a relatively high degree of
volatility, as measured by annualised standard
deviations in daily percentage changes until
late 2008, and it recorded a high degree of
volatility thereafter, mainly re
fl
ecting the global
fi
nancial and economic crisis. At the same time
short-term interest rate differentials against
the three-month EURIBOR were positive
and then turned to zero at the end of 2008.
They turned negative in January 2009 and stood
at -0.2 percentage points in the three-month
period ending in March 2010 (see Table 9b).
In a longer-term context, in March 2010 the
real exchange rate of the Swedish krona was
close to its ten-year historical averages, both
bilaterally against the euro and in effective
terms (see Table 10). As regards other
external developments, since 2000 Sweden
has maintained large surpluses, of 6.7% of
GDP on average, in its combined current and
capital account of the balance of payments,
which reached 7.3% of GDP in 2009. From a
fi
nancial account perspective, direct, portfolio
and other investment have been rather volatile
over the past
fi
ve years. In 2009 both direct and
other investment reported substantial out
fl
ows,
whereas portfolio investment reversed to record
substantial in
fl
ows. Against this background,
gross external debt increased substantially
from 119.8% of GDP in 2000 to 196.6%
in 2008 and 205.2% in 2009. At the same time,
the countryâs net international investment
position improved gradually from -35.1% of
GDP in 2000 to -1.6% in 2007, before abruptly
deteriorating to -14.1% and -19.7% in 2008
and 2009. Sweden is a small, open economy,
although the ratio of foreign trade in goods
and services to GDP contracted from 53.6% in
2008 to 48.4% in 2009 for exports and from
46.3% in 2008 to 41.5% in 2009 for imports
(see Table 11).
Concerning measures of economic integration with
the euro area, in 2009 exports of goods to the euro
area constituted 38.6% of total exports, whereas
the corresponding
fi
gure for imports was higher
at 46.6%. In 2008 the share of euro area countries
in Swedenâs direct and portfolio investment
liabilities stood at 56.5% and 43.4% respectively.
In the same year the share of Swedenâs assets
invested in the euro area amounted to 44.8% in the
case of direct investment and 37.8% for portfolio
investment (see Table 12).
5.9.4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE
DEVELOPMENTS
Over the reference period from April 2009 to
March 2010, long-term interest rates in Sweden
were 3.3% on average and thus well below
the 6.0% reference value for the interest rate
convergence criterion (see Table 13).
Swedish interest rates declined and reached a low
level at 3% by the middle of 2005 (see Chart 6a).
This downward movement re
fl
ected, among
other things, relatively contained in
fl
ation.
From late 2005 Swedenâs long-term interest
rates increased owing to strong growth and
international developments in government
bond yields, reaching 4.5% in mid-2007. Amid
the international
fi
nancial turmoil, in Sweden
in
fl
ation started to fall at the end of 2008 and the
long-term interest rates declined to historically low
levels of 2.7% in December 2008. Subsequently,
long-term interest rates rose somewhat and
hovered around 3.3% in March 2010.
208
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May 2010
The spread between Swedish and euro area
long-term interest rates (see Chart 6b) was
relatively wide between 2002 and 2004,
re
fl
ecting to some extent periods when in
fl
ation
was higher in Sweden than in the euro area,
as well as the more pronounced fall in euro
area bond rates. From mid-2005 spreads have
been negative, standing until June 2008 at
-0.2 percentage point on average. Subsequently,
the spread widened and stood at -0.4 percentage
point in March 2010.
The Swedish capital market is highly developed.
The debt securities issued by corporations stood
at 125.9% of GDP at the end of 2009, above the
euro area average (see Table 14). Similarly, the
stock market capitalisation (103.0% of GDP)
was well above the euro area average. In terms
of bank credit to non-government residents,
the indicator for the Swedish
fi
nancial sector
approached that of the euro area and amounted
to 135.9% of GDP at the end of 2009.
Foreign-owned banks have only a limited role in
the Swedish banking sector, and the majority of
loans to the private sector are in local currency.
Loans of euro area banks to banks in the country
stood at 8.4% of total liabilities in 2009.
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May 2010
S W E D E N
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
SWEDEN
1 PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 1
HICP in
fl
ation
210
Chart 1
Price developments
210
Table 2
Measures of in
fl
ation and
related indicators
210
Table 3
Recent in
fl
ation trends and
forecasts
211
(a) Recent trends
in the HICP
211
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
211
2 FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government
fi
scal
position
212
Table 5
General government
budgetary position
212
Chart 2
General government
surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
213
(a) Levels
213
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
213
Table 6
General government gross
debt â structural features
213
Chart 3
General government gross
debt
214
(a) Levels
214
(b) Annual change and
underlying factors
214
Chart 4
General government
expenditure and revenue
214
Table 7
General government
de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
215
Table 8
Projections of the
ageing-induced
fi
scal burden
215
3 EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
216
(b) Key indicators of
exchange rate pressure
for the Swedish krona
216
Chart 5
Swedish krona: nominal
exchange rate development
against the euro
216
(a) Exchange rate over the
reference period
216
(b) Exchange rate over the
last ten years
216
Table 10 Swedish krona: real
exchange rate developments
217
Table 11 External developments
217
Table 12 Indicators of integration
with the euro area
217
4 LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13 Long-term interest rates
(LTIRs)
218
Chart 6
Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate
(LTIR)
218
(b) LTIR and HICP
in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
218
Table 14 Selected indicators of
fi
nancial development
and integration
218
210
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May 2010
1 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS
T a b l e 1 HICP inflation
(annual percentage changes)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP in
fl
ation
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.1
Reference value
1)
1.0
Euro area
2)
0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4
0.3
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010
is the unweighted arithmetic average of the annual percentage
changes in the HICP for Portugal, Estonia and Belgium plus
1.5 percentage points.
2) The euro area is included for information only.
C h a r t 1 Price developments
(average annual percentage changes)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2008
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
HICP
unit labour costs
import deflator
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 2
Measures of inflation and related indicators
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measures of in
fl
ation
HICP
1.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 3.3 1.9
HICP
excluding
unprocessed
food
and
energy
0.7 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.5 1.8 2.3 2.3
HICP at constant tax rates
1)
-
-
-
-
0.9 0.7 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.8
CPI
0.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.4 -0.3
Private consumption de
fl
ator
1.0 2.2 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.8 2.2
GDP de
fl
ator
1.5 2.3 1.6 1.9 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.0 3.2 1.9
Producer prices
2)
3.6 2.3 2.2 2.8 1.8 3.9 6.1 3.6 6.1 -0.3
Related indicators
Real
GDP
growth
4.4 1.1 2.4 1.9 4.1 3.3 4.2 2.5 -0.2 -4.9
GDP per capita in PPS
3)
(euro
area
=
100)
112.6 108.3 108.8 110.8 114.0 109.8 110.8 112.5 110.7
-
Comparative price levels (euro area = 100)
127.2 119.2 121.1 119.9 117.7 116.6 116.2 113.9 110.1
-
Output gap
4)
1.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 1.3 2.2 3.8 3.9 1.8 -4.3
Unemployment rate (%)
5)
5.6 5.8 6.0 6.7 7.6 7.7 7.0 6.1 6.2 8.3
Unit
labour
costs,
whole
economy
5.2 5.3 0.6 0.6 -0.8 0.1 -0.4 4.7 2.8 4.8
Compensation
per
employee,
whole
economy
7.2 4.2 2.9 3.1 4.0 3.1 2.1 5.1 1.7 1.7
Labour
productivity,
whole
economy
1.9 -1.0 2.4 2.5 4.9 3.0 2.5 0.4 -1.1 -2.9
Imports of goods and services de
fl
ator
4.2 3.9 0.1 -2.0 0.9 4.6 3.2 -0.1 4.3 0.0
Nominal effective exchange rate
6)
-0.8 -8.5 2.1 6.2 2.0 -2.6 0.3 1.7 -1.8 -9.0
Money
supply
(M3)
-
35.1 17.7 37.2 -0.6 14.1 18.1 21.3 3.6 0.0
Lending
from
banks
-
15.4 10.7 9.0 5.8 11.0 11.3 14.3 7.5 3.0
Stock prices (Sweden OMX Index)
-11.9
-19.8
-41.7
29.0
16.6
29.4
19.5
-5.7
-38.8
43.7
Residential
property
prices
11.2 7.9 6.3 6.6 9.3 9.0
12.2
10.4 3.3 -0.1
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat), national data (CPI, money supply, lending from banks and residential property prices) and
European Commission (output gap).
1) The difference between the HICP and the HICP at constant tax rates shows the theoretical impact of changes in indirect taxes
(e.g. VAT and excise duties) on the overall rate of in
fl
ation. This impact assumes a full and instantaneous pass-through of tax rate changes
on the price paid by the consumer.
2) Total industry excluding construction and domestic sales.
3) PPS stands for purchasing power standards.
4) Percentage difference of potential GDP. A positive (negative) sign indicates that actual GDP is above (below) potential GDP.
5) The de
fi
nition conforms to ILO guidelines.
6) A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
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S W E D E N
Table 3
Recent inflation trends and forecasts
(annual percentage changes)
(a) Recent trends in the HICP
2009
2010
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
HICP
Annual percentage change
2.4
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.5
Change in the average of the latest three months from the previous
three months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
1.9
2.5
3.1
4.1
3.2
Change in the average of the latest six months from the previous
six months, annualised rate, seasonally adjusted
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
(b) In
fl
ation forecasts
2010
2011
HICP, European Commission (spring 2010)
1.7
1.6
CPI, OECD (December 2009)
1.4
3.2
CPI, IMF (April 2010)
2.4
2.1
CPI, Consensus Economics (April 2010)
1.3
2.2
Sources: European Commission, OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics.
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2 FISCAL
DEVELOPMENTS
Table 4
General government fiscal position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2008 2009
2010
1)
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
2.5 -0.5 -2.1
Reference
value
-3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government investment expenditure
2)
5.8
3.1
1.6
General government gross debt
38.3
42.3
42.6
Reference
value
60.0 60.0 60.0
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
1) European Commission projections.
2) A positive (negative) sign indicates that the government de
fi
cit is lower (higher) than government investment expenditure.
Table 5
General government budgetary position
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total revenue
59.3 57.2 55.3 55.8 56.1 57.2 56.5 56.3 55.5 55.7
Current
revenue
59.2 57.0 55.1 55.6 56.0 57.1 56.4 56.2 55.5 55.7
Direct
taxes
21.9 19.5 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.9 19.9 19.0 17.4 17.0
Indirect
taxes
16.0 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 18.2 18.9
Social
security
contributions
13.8 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.4 12.8 12.8 12.0 11.9
Other
current
revenue
7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.5 7.8 7.8
Capital
revenue
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total expenditure
55.6 55.6 56.5 56.7 55.3 55.0 54.0 52.5 53.1 56.3
Current
expenditure
52.7 52.5 53.2 53.6 52.3 51.7 50.8 49.3 49.8 52.5
Compensation
of
employees
15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.3 15.1 14.9 15.4
Social bene
fi
ts
other
than
in
kind
17.1 16.9 17.0 17.7 17.5 17.0 16.3 15.3 15.1 16.6
Interest
payable
3.5 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 0.9
of which: impact of swaps and FRAs
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.3
Other
current
expenditure
16.9 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.1 18.2 19.5
Capital
expenditure
2.9 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.8
Surplus (+)/de
fi
cit (-)
3.7 1.6 -1.2 -0.9 0.8 2.3 2.5 3.8 2.5 -0.5
Primary
balance
7.2 4.4 1.7 1.1 2.4 3.9 4.2 5.6 4.1 0.4
Surplus/de
fi
cit, net of government
investment
expenditure
6.5 4.5 1.9 2.0 3.7 5.2 5.6 6.9 5.8 3.1
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding. Interest payable as reported under the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure. The item âimpact of swaps and FRAsâ is equal to the difference between the interest (or de
fi
cit/surplus) as de
fi
ned in the
excessive de
fi
cit procedure and in the ESA 95. See Regulation (EC) No 2558/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
reclassi
fi
cation of settlements under swap arrangements and under forward rate agreements.
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May 2010
S W E D E N
Chart 2
General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
-2
0
2
4
2008
-2
0
2
4
levels
2000
2002
2004
2006
-4
-2
0
2
4
2008
-4
-2
0
2
4
cyclical factors
non-cyclical factors
total change
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB calculations.
Note: In Chart 2(b) a negative (positive) value indicates a contribution to an increase (reduction) in a de
fi
cit.
Table 6
General government gross debt â structural features
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total debt
(as a percentage of GDP)
53.6
54.4
52.6
52.3
51.1
50.8
45.7
40.8
38.3
42.3
Composition by currency
(% of total)
In domestic currency
80.1
82.6
84.4
87.6
89.2
89.3
89.6
90.6
90.7
85.7
In foreign currencies
19.9
17.4
15.6
12.4
10.8
10.7
10.4
9.4
9.3
14.3
Euro
1)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.6
3.7
Other foreign currencies
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.7
10.6
Domestic ownership
(% of total)
68.5
66.7
69.3
63.6
65.4
70.1
77.5
75.0
72.3
69.6
Average residual maturity
(in years)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Composition by maturity
2)
(% of total)
Short-term (up to and including one year)
25.1
26.2
25.8
26.0
22.1
28.7
27.3
26.9
24.3
25.3
Medium and long-term (over one year)
74.9
73.8
74.2
74.0
77.9
71.3
72.7
73.1
75.7
74.7
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Notes: Year-end data. Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Comprises debt denominated in euro.
2) Original maturity.
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C h a r t 3 General government gross debt
(a) Levels
(as a percentage of GDP)
(b) Annual change and underlying factors
(percentage points of GDP)
35
40
45
50
55
2008
35
40
45
50
55
levels
2000
2002
2004
2006
-20
-10
0
10
-20
-10
0
10
primary balance
growth/interest rate differential
deficit-debt adjustment
change in debt-to-GDP ratio
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Sources: European Commission (Eurostat) and ECB.
Note: In Chart 3(b) a negative (postitive) value indicates a contribution of the respective factor to a decrease (increase) in the debt ratio.
C h a r t 4 General government expenditure
and revenue
(as a percentage of GDP)
52
54
56
58
60
52
54
56
58
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
total expenditure
total revenue
Source: ESCB.
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S W E D E N
Table 7
General government deficit-debt adjustment
(as a percentage of GDP)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Change in general government debt
1)
-7.6 2.6 0.3 1.7 1.0 1.8 -2.2 -2.5 -1.3 2.8
General government surplus (+)/de
fi
cit
(-)
3.7 1.6 -1.2 -0.9 0.8 2.3 2.5 3.8 2.5 -0.5
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
-3.8 4.2 -0.9 0.7 1.8 4.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 2.3
Net acquisitions (+)/net sales (-) of
fi
nancial assets
-4.3 4.9 0.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.1 0.5 -1.7 1.3
Currency
and
deposits
-0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 -0.2 1.2 -1.2
Loans and securities other than shares
-1.6
-2.6
0.2
0.9
1.5
2.5
2.1
1.7
-0.5
3.0
Shares
and
other
equity
-2.3 7.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.2
Privatisations -
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
-
-2.3
0.0
Equity injections
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.2 -
Other -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.0 -
Other
fi
nancial
assets
-0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 0.4 0.7 -1.4 -0.9 -2.2 -0.8
Valuation changes of general government debt
0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.7 -0.5 0.0 1.1 -0.5
Foreign exchange holding gains (-)/losses (+)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other valuation effects
2)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Other changes in general government debt
3)
0.0 0.1 -1.4 -1.6 -0.5 1.1 -0.2 0.7 1.7 1.5
Sources: ESCB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Note: Differences between totals and the sum of their components are due to rounding.
1) Annual change in debt in period
t
as a percentage of GDP in period
t
, i.e. [debt(t) â debt(tâ1)]/GDP(t).
2) Includes the difference between the nominal and market valuation of general government debt.
3) Transactions in other accounts payable (government liabilities), sector reclassi
fi
cations and statistical discrepancies. This item may also
cover certain cases of debt assumption.
Table 8
Projections of the ageing-induced fiscal burden
(percentages)
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Elderly dependency ratio (population aged 65 and over as a
proportion
of
the
population
aged
15-64)
26.7 27.8 33.7 37.4 40.8 41.9 46.7
Age-related government expenditure (as percentage points of GDP)
27.1
27.1
26.9
28.2
28.8
28.8
29.7
Source: âThe 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2008-2060)â, a joint report prepared
by the European Commission (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee.
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3
EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 9
(a) Exchange rate stability
Membership of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II)
No
Exchange rate level in April 2008 in SEK/EUR
9.36989
Maximum upward deviation
1)
1.0
Maximum downward deviation
1)
-25.0
Source: ECB.
1) Maximum percentage deviations of the bilateral exchange rate against the euro from its average level in April 2008 over the period
24 April 2008-23 April 2010, based on daily data at business frequency. An upward (downward) deviation implies that the currency was
stronger (weaker) than its exchange rate level in April 2008.
Table 9
(b) Key indicators of exchange rate pressure for the Swedish krona
(average of three-month period ending in speci
fi
ed month)
2008 2009
2010
June Sep. Dec. Mar. June Sep. Dec. Mar.
Exchange rate volatility
1)
3.5 3.8 13.6 17.4 11.7 10.0 7.9 6.6
Short-term interest rate differential
2)
0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2
Sources: National data and ECB calculations.
1) Annualised monthly standard deviation (as a percentage) of daily percentage changes of the exchange rate against the euro.
2) Differential (in percentage points) between three-month interbank interest rates and the three-month EURIBOR.
C h a r t 5 Swedish krona: nominal exchange rate development against the euro
(a) Exchange rate over the reference period
(daily data; average of April 2008 = 100;
24 April 2008-23 April 2010)
(b) Exchange rates over the last ten years
(monthly data; average of April 2008 = 100;
April 2000-April 2010)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2008
2009
120
110
100
90
80
120
130
130
110
100
90
80
70
70
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: ECB.
Note: An upward (downward) movement of the line indicates an appreciation (depreciation) of the Swedish krona.
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S W E D E N
Table 10
Swedish krona: real exchange rate developments
(monthly data; percentage deviation in March 2010 from ten-year average calculated for the period April 2000-March 2010)
Mar. 2010
Real bilateral exchange rate against the euro
1)
-3.1
Memo items:
Nominal effective exchange rate
2)
-1.0
Real effective exchange rate
1), 2)
-0.9
Source: ECB.
Note: A positive (negative) sign indicates an appreciation (depreciation).
1) Based on HICP and CPI developments.
2) Effective exchange rate against the euro, the currencies of the non-euro area EU Member States and those of ten other major trading partners.
Table 11
External developments
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Balance of payments
Current account and capital account balance
1)
3.8 4.3 5.0 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.7 8.3 9.3 7.3
Current
account
balance
4.0 4.3 5.0 7.2 6.8 7.0 8.4 8.4 9.5 7.4
Goods
balance
6.3 6.4 6.5 6.0 6.4 5.3 5.2 3.5 3.6 3.2
Services
balance
-0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.7
Income
balance
-0.6 -0.6 -0.5 1.2 0.0 0.8 1.9 2.4 3.5 1.7
Current
transfers
balance
-1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -0.7 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.2
Capital
account
balance
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance
1)
-8.9 -5.2 -3.2 -7.4 -9.1 -4.5 -4.1 1.2 -5.0 4.2
Direct
investment
balance
-7.1 1.6 0.6 -5.2 -2.8 -4.5 0.9 -2.3 1.2 -5.2
Portfolio
investment
balance
-1.8 -6.8 -3.8 -2.2 -6.3 -0.1 -5.1 3.5 -6.2 9.4
Other
investment
balance
7.9 4.7 1.5 1.6 1.9 -3.1 -3.5 -3.1 8.8
-10.2
Reserve
assets
-0.1 0.5 -0.3 -0.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -3.8
Exports
of
goods
and
services
45.3 44.9 43.5 42.8 45.3 47.8 50.4 51.5 53.6 48.4
Imports
of
goods
and
services
39.6 38.7 36.7 36.1 37.2 40.4 42.6 44.5 46.3 41.5
Net international investment position
2)
-35.1 -25.2 -22.3 -19.9 -24.4 -20.9 -12.3 -1.6 -14.1 -19.7
Gross external debt
2)
119.8 135.5 128.4 128.5 139.1 158.6 158.6 175.4 196.6 205.2
Source: ECB.
1) Differences between the total and the sum of the components are due to rounding.
2) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
Table 12
Indicators of integration with the euro area
(as a percentage of the total)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
External trade with the euro area
Exports
of
goods
41.8 40.6 40.5 40.5 40.7 39.4 40.3 40.7 39.9 38.6
Imports
of
goods
48.9 49.8 49.6 50.2 50.5 48.1 47.4 48.1 46.2 46.6
Investment position with the euro area
Inward direct investment
1)
41.3 42.7 44.0 47.9 47.0 47.8 46.8 49.9 56.5
-
Outward direct investment
1)
44.9 39.3 41.8 42.9 43.9
237.1 47.0 43.3 44.8
-
Portfolio investment liabilities
1)
-
29.4 36.4 38.1 36.8 34.5 35.2 38.5 43.4
-
Portfolio investment assets
1)
-
36.3 41.7 41.5 44.1 41.7 40.2 41.6 37.8
-
Memo items:
External trade with the EU
Exports
of
goods
60.3 58.9 58.5 58.7 59.0 59.0 60.2 61.2 60.0 58.4
Imports
of
goods
68.4 70.0 71.1 71.9 72.2 70.4 69.7 70.9 68.9 68.1
Sources: ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat) and IMF.
1) End-of-period outstanding amounts.
218
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4
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENTS
Table 13
Long-term interest rates (LTIRs)
(percentages; average for period)
2009
Dec.
2010
Apr. 2009
to Mar. 2010
Jan. Feb. Mar.
Long-term
interest
rate
3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3
Reference value
1)
6.0
Euro area
2)
3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.8
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
1) The basis of the calculation for the period April 2009-March 2010 is the unweighted arithmetic average of the interest rate levels in
Portugal and Belgium plus 2 percentage points.
2) The euro area average is included for information only.
C h a r t 6 Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(a) Long-term interest rate (LTIR)
(monthly averages in percentages)
(b) LTIR and HICP in
fl
ation differentials
vis-Ă -vis the euro area
(monthly averages in percentage points)
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2002
2004
2006
2008
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
long-term interest rate differential
HICP inflation differential
2001
2003
2002
2004
2006
2008
2005
2007
2009
Sources: ECB and European Commission (Eurostat).
Table 14
Selected indicators of financial development and integration
(as a percentage of GDP, unless otherwise stated)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Memo
item
euro area
(2009)
Debt securities issued by corporations
1)
61.1 60.8 59.0 57.7 65.4 77.6 82.5 96.7
108.5
125.9
101.9
Stock market capitalisation
2)
159.3 122.8 73.5 92.0 102.8 128.2 147.4 129.2 64.9 103.0
49.2
MFI credit to non-government residents
3)
86.7 97.2 98.7 99.3 100.1 107.1 111.9 121.5 128.0 135.9
136.4
Claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
4)
7.9 8.2 7.7 7.4
11.0 9.3 9.6
10.1
10.3 8.4
9.1
Sources: ESCB, Federation of European Securities Exchanges, OMX and national stock exchanges.
1) Outstanding amount of debt securities issued by resident non-
fi
nancial corporations, MFIs and other
fi
nancial corporations.
2) Outstanding amounts of quoted shares issued by residents at the end of the period at market values. For historical periods the national
data have been derived directly from the national stock exchange without further adjustment.
3) MFI (excluding NCB) credit to resident sectors other than general government. Credit includes outstanding amounts of loans and
debt securities.
4) Outstanding amount of deposits and debt securities issued by resident MFIs (excluding the NCB) held by euro area MFIs as a percentage
of resident MFIsâ liabilities.
219
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A N N E X
S T A T I S T I C A L
M E T H O D O L O G Y
The examination of the convergence process is
highly dependent on the quality and integrity of
the underlying statistics. The compilation and
reporting of statistics, particularly government
fi
nance statistics (GFS), must not be subject
to political considerations. Member States are
invited to consider the quality and integrity of
their statistics as a matter of priority, to ensure
that a proper system of checks and balances is in
place when compiling these statistics and to apply
certain standards with respect to governance and
quality in the domain of statistics.
National statistical authorities in each Member
State and the Union statistical authority within
the European Commission (Eurostat) should
enjoy professional independence and ensure
that European statistics are impartial and of a
high quality. This is in line with the principles
laid down in Article 338(2) of the Treaty,
Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European
Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009
on European Statistics (Regulation on European
Statistics) and the European Statistics Code
of Practice endorsed by the Commission
(the Code of Practice). Article 2(1) of the
Regulation on European Statistics states that
the development, production and dissemination
of European statistics shall be governed by the
following statistical principles: a) professional
independence; b) impartiality; c) objectivity;
d) reliability; e) statistical con
fi
dentiality; and
f) cost effectiveness. Pursuant to Article 11 of the
Regulation, these statistical principles are further
elaborated in the Code of Practice.
1
Against this background, the quality and integrity
of the convergence indicators in terms of the
underlying statistics are reviewed in the statistical
section. This section refers to some institutional
features of the national statistical institutes
(NSIs) concerned and provides information on
the statistical methodology of the convergence
indicators, as well as the compliance of the
underlying statistics with the standards necessary
for an appropriate assessment of the convergence
process. Moreover, sub-section 3.2 reviews in
particular the public interventions to support
fi
nancial institutions and
fi
nancial markets during
the
fi
nancial crisis, as well as the
fi
nancial support
provided by international institutions or countries
during the
fi
nancial crisis.
1
INSTITUTIONAL FEATURES RELATING
TO THE QUALITY OF STATISTICS
FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE
CONVERGENCE PROCESS
The Regulation on European Statistics together
with the Code of Practice are aimed at ensuring
public trust in European statistics by establishing
how these statistics are collected and compiled.
In the Regulation, professional independence
means that statistics must be developed,
produced and disseminated in an independent
manner, particularly as regards the selection
of techniques, de
fi
nitions, methodologies and
sources to be used, and the timing and content
of all forms of dissemination, free from any
pressures from political or interest groups or
from Union or national authorities, without
prejudice to institutional setting, such as Union
or national institutional or budgetary provisions
or de
fi
nitions of statistical needs.
In 2005, prior to the adoption of the Regulation,
Eurostat and the NSIs carried out an initial
self-assessment of their adherence to the Code of
Practice on the basis of a questionnaire that was
complemented by external reviews in 2006, 2007
and 2008.
2
In 2009 the European Parliament and
the Council established the European Statistical
Governance Advisory Board (ESGAB) with the
purpose of providing an independent overview of
the European Statistical System as regards the
implementation of the Code of Practice.
Following the appointment by the same
institutions of the Boardâs seven members, the
ESGAB met for the
fi
rst time on 18 March 2009.
See Articles 2(1) and 11 of Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the
1
European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009 on
European Statistics.
See Eurostatâs website (
2 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/
portal/docs/page/pgp_ds_quality/tab47141301/versione_
inglese_web.pdf).
ANNEX
STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY OF CONVERGENCE
INDICATORS
220
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May 2010
Table 1 provides an overview of some of the
institutional features relating to the quality of
the statistics, namely the speci
fi
cation of the
legal independence of the national statistical
authority, its administrative supervision and
budget autonomy, its legal mandate for data
collection and its legal provisions governing
statistical con
fi
dentiality.
3
Information on the institutional set-up of national statistical
3
authorities has been taken from their websites (April 2010).
Table 1
Quality and integrity of convergence statistics
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Institutional features relating to the quality and integrity of the statistics assessing the convergence process
Legal independence of the
national statistical institute
According to the Law on Statistics,
statistics are based on the principles
of professional independence,
impartiality, objectivity, reliability,
statistical con
fi
dentiality and cost
effectiveness. According to Article 8
of the Law on Statistics, the President
of the NSI is appointed by the Prime
Minister. The term of of
fi
ce is
fi
xed
(seven years; reappointment is
possible, only once).
According to Article 5 of
the State Statistical Service
Act, statistics are based on
objectivity, impartiality and
independency. According to
Article 3, the Head of the NSI
is appointed by the President of
the Republic and reports to the
government.
According to Article 2 of the
Of
fi
cial Statistics Act, statistics
conform to impartiality,
reliability, relevance, cost-
effectiveness, con
fi
dentiality
and transparency. The Head
of the NSI is nominated by
the Minister of Finance. The
appointment is permanent.
Administrative supervision
and budget autonomy
The NSI has the status of a State
Agency and is directly subordinated
to the Council of Ministers. It has
budget autonomy on the basis of an
annual amount assigned from the
state budget.
The NSI is a central statistical
agency within the public
administration. It has budget
autonomy on the basis of an
annual amount assigned from
the state budget.
The NSI is a government
of
fi
ce directly accountable to
the Ministry of Finance. It has
budget autonomy on the basis
of an annual amount assigned
from the state budget.
Legal mandate for data
collection
The Law on Statistics determines
the main principles of data
collection.
The State Statistical Service
Act determines the main
principles of data collection.
The Of
fi
cial Statistics Act
determines the main principles
of data collection.
Legal provisions regarding
statistical con
fi
dentiality
According to Articles 25 to 27a
of the Law on Statistics, the
con
fi
dentiality of the statistical data
is secured.
According to Articles 16, 17
and 18 of the State Statistical
Service Act, the con
fi
dentiality
of the statistical data is secured.
According to Article 8 of the
Of
fi
cial Statistics Act, the
con
fi
dentiality of the statistical
data is secured.
HICP in
fl
ation
1)
Compliance with legal
minimum standards
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2007 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing the
HICP are satisfactory. There
were no apparent instances of
non-compliance with the HICP
methodology.
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2008 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing the
HICP are satisfactory. There
were no apparent instances of
non-compliance with the HICP
methodology.
Eurostat made compliance
monitoring visits in 2006
and 2010, and con
fi
rmed that
in general the methods used
for producing the HICP are
satisfactory. Instances of non-
compliance with the HICP
methodology are limited and
unlikely to have a major impact
in practice on the HICP annual
average rates of change.
Other issues
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP in
terms of accuracy and reliability to
be generally adequate. However, it
recommended some improvements
and/or further analysis to the
methodology or data used in speci
fi
c
areas. By the end of 2009 most of
the Eurostat recommendations were
implemented.
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP
in terms of accuracy and
reliability to be generally
adequate. However, it
recommended some
improvements and/or further
analysis to the methodology or
data used in speci
fi
c areas.
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP in
terms of accuracy and reliability
to be generally adequate.
However, it recommended
some improvements and/
or further analysis to the
methodology or data used in
speci
fi
c areas.
1) The full report of the
fi
ndings and recommendations of the HICP compliance monitoring visits for each country are available on
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/methodology/compliance_monitoring.
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A N N E X
S T A T I S T I C A L
M E T H O D O L O G Y
Table 1
Quality and integrity of convergence statistics (continued)
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Government
fi
nance statistics
Data coverage
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit and
debt data are provided for the
period 2000-09.
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit
and debt data are provided for
the period 2000-09.
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit
and debt data are provided for
the period 2000-09.
Outstanding statistical
issues
Following a Eurostat
recommendation, tax revenue should
be recorded using a time-adjusted
cash method, which might lead to
some revisions to the data.
No outstanding statistical issues
identi
fi
ed.
No outstanding statistical issues
identi
fi
ed.
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
High and volatile
fi
gures for the
period 2002-05, mainly determined
by foreign exchange holding gains.
DDA is moderate and mostly
negative (-0.7% of GDP
on average for the period
2000-08). This refers to
privatisations, but also to other
changes in government debt.
High and positive for the
period 2002-07 owing to large
transactions in securities other
than shares, but also to other
changes in government debt.
Institution responsible
for the compilation of
EDP data
The NSI compiles the actual EDP
data and the Ministry of Finance
provides the forecasts. The Ministry
of Finance compiles the actual
EDP data concerning debt. The
NCB is not directly involved in the
compilation of these statistics.
The NSI, in cooperation with the
Ministry of Finance, compiles
the actual EDP data, and the
Ministry of Finance provides
the forecasts. The NCB is
not directly involved in the
compilation of these statistics.
The NSI compiles the actual
EDP data, and the Ministry of
Finance provides the forecasts.
The NCB is not directly
involved in the compilation of
these statistics.
Latvia
Lithuania
Hungary
Institutional features relating to the quality and integrity of the statistics assessing the convergence process
Legal independence of the
national statistical institute
According to Article 3 of the
Law on State Statistics, statistics
are based on objectivity,
reliability, relevancy, ef
fi
ciency,
con
fi
dentiality and transparency.
The Head of the NSI is appointed
by the Cabinet of Ministers on
the basis of a recommendation by
the Minister for Economy. The
term of of
fi
ce is
fi
xed (
fi
ve years;
reappointment is possible).
According to Article 4 of the
Law on Statistics, statistics
are based on the principles
of objectivity, professional
independence, transparency of
methods and methodologies,
compliance with international
classi
fi
cations and standards
and con
fi
dentiality. The Head
of the NSI is appointed by the
Prime Minister on the basis of
an of
fi
cial selection procedure
regulated by the Civil Servants
Law; term of of
fi
ce not
fi
xed.
According to Article 1 and 3/A
of the Act XLVI on Statistics,
statistics are based on
objectivity, independence and
con
fi
dentiality. The Head of the
NSI is appointed by the Prime
Minister. The term of of
fi
ce is
fi
xed (six years; reappointment
is possible, only twice).
Administrative supervision
and budget autonomy
The NSI is a public institution
under the supervision of the
Ministry of Economy. It has budget
autonomy,
fi
nanced from the state
budget, from own income and from
fi
nancial resources received from
foreign countries.
The NSI is a department
under the Government of the
Republic of Lithuania. It has
budget autonomy on the basis
of an annual amount assigned
from the state budget.
The NSI is a public
administration organ under
the immediate supervision of
the government. It has budget
autonomy on the basis of an
annual amount assigned from
the state budget.
Legal mandate for data
collection
The Law on State Statistics
determines the main principles of
data collection.
The Law on Statistics
determines the main principles
of data collection.
Act XLVI on Statistics
determines the main principles
of data collection.
Legal provisions regarding
statistical con
fi
dentiality
According to Article 18 of the
Law on State Statistics, the
con
fi
dentiality of the statistical data
is secured.
According to Article 13 of
the Law on Statistics, the
con
fi
dentiality of statistical
data is secured. See also
âRules and Regulations for
Data Acknowledgement as
Con
fi
dential One and its
Usageâ (Statistics Lithuania).
According to Article 17 of
Act XLVI on Statistics, the
con
fi
dentiality of the statistical
data is secured.
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Table 1
Quality and integrity of convergence statistics (continued)
Latvia
Lithuania
Hungary
HICP in
fl
ation
Compliance with legal
minimum standards
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2007 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing the
HICP are satisfactory. There
were no apparent instances of
non-compliance with the HICP
methodology.
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2008 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing the
HICP are satisfactory. There
were no apparent instances of
non-compliance with the HICP
methodology.
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2008 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing
the HICP are satisfactory. Some
instances of non-compliance with
the HICP methodology were
identi
fi
ed, but were considered
by Eurostat to be limited and
unlikely to have a major impact
in practice on the HICP annual
average rates of change.
Other
issues
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP in
terms of accuracy and reliability to
be generally adequate. However, it
recommended some improvements
and/or further analysis to the
methodology or data used in
speci
fi
c areas.
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP
in terms of accuracy and
reliability to be generally
adequate. However, it
recommended some
improvements and/or further
analysis to the methodology or
data used in speci
fi
c areas, in
particular for medical products.
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP in
terms of accuracy and reliability
to be generally adequate.
However, it recommended
some improvements and/
or further analysis to the
methodology or data used in
speci
fi
c areas.
Government
fi
nance statistics
Data coverage
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit and
debt data are provided for the
period 2000-09.
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit
and debt data are provided for
the period 2000-09.
Revenue, expenditure and
de
fi
cit data are provided for the
period 2000-09.
Consistency of government
fi
nance statistics
No inconsistencies identi
fi
ed.
No inconsistencies identi
fi
ed.
No inconsistencies identi
fi
ed.
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
High DDA value in 2008, mainly
determined by large transactions
in currency and deposits and
transactions in loans and securities
other than shares.
No major issues identi
fi
ed.
High DDA value in 2008,
due to large transactions in
currency and deposits and
partially by foreign exchange
holding losses.
Institution responsible for
the compilation of EDP
data
The NSI compiles the actual EDP
data, and the Ministry of Finance
provides the forecasts. The NCB
is not directly involved in the
compilation of these statistics.
The NSI, in cooperation with the
Ministry of Finance, compiles the
actual EDP data, and the Ministry
of Finance provides the forecasts.
The NCB is not directly involved
in the compilation of these
statistics, but closely monitors
the compilation process via
methodological discussions.
A working group composed of
the NSI, the Ministry of Finance
and the NCB compiles the actual
EDP data, and the Ministry of
Finance provides the forecasts.
The NSI is responsible for the
non-
fi
nancial accounts and the
NCB for the
fi
nancial accounts
and the debt; the Ministry of
Finance is responsible for the
data of the current year (t).
223
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A N N E X
S T A T I S T I C A L
M E T H O D O L O G Y
Table 1
Quality and integrity of convergence statistics (continued)
Poland
Romania
Sweden
Institutional features relating to the quality and integrity of the statistics assessing the convergence process
Legal independence of the
national statistical institute
According to Article 1 of the Law
on Of
fi
cial Statistics, statistics are
based on reliability, objectivity and
transparency. The Head of the NSI
is selected by open competition and
appointed by the President of the
Council of Ministers. The term of
of
fi
ce is
fi
xed (
fi
ve years).
The autonomy of of
fi
cial
statistics is stated in the Statistical
Law, together with the principles
of con
fi
dentiality, transparency,
reliability, proportionality,
statistical deontology and cost/
ef
fi
ciency ratio. The Head of the
NSI is appointed by the Prime
Minister. The term of of
fi
ce is
fi
xed (six years; reappointment
is possible only once).
According to Section 3 of the
Of
fi
cial Statistics Act, statistics
are objective and available
to the public. The Head of
the NSI is appointed by the
government. The term of of
fi
ce
is
fi
xed (for a maximum of
three years).
Administrative supervision
and budget autonomy
The NSI is a central agency within
the public administration under
supervision of the President of the
Council of Ministers. It has budget
autonomy on the basis of an annual
amount assigned from the state
budget.
According to the Statistical
Law, the NSI is a specialised
institution, subordinated to the
government. It is
fi
nanced via
the state budget.
The NSI is a central statistics
agency, subordinated to, but
not part of, the Ministry of
Finance. Approximately half of
its turnover is provided by the
Ministry of Finance, the other
half by charging government
agencies and commercial
customers for statistical
production and advice.
Legal mandate for data
collection
The Law on Of
fi
cial Statistics
determines the main principles of
data collection.
According to the Statistical
Law, âthe of
fi
cial statistics in
Romania are implemented and
coordinated by the NSI.â
The Of
fi
cial Statistics Act
determines the main principles
of data collection.
Legal provisions regarding
statistical con
fi
dentiality
According to Articles 10, 11, 12,
38, 39 and 54 of the Law on Of
fi
cial
Statistics, the con
fi
dentiality of the
statistical data is secured.
The Statistical Law states
that âduring statistical
research, from collection to
dissemination, the of
fi
cial
statistics services and
statisticians have the obligation
to adopt and implement all
the necessary measures for
protecting the data referring
to individual statistics subjects
(natural or legal persons),
data obtained directly from
statistical research or indirectly
through administrative sources
or from other suppliers.â
According to Sections 5 and
6 of the Of
fi
cial Statistics
Act, the con
fi
dentiality of the
statistical data is secured.
HICP in
fl
ation
Compliance with legal
minimum standards
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2008 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing the
HICP are satisfactory. Some
instances of non-compliance with
the HICP methodology were found,
but were considered by Eurostat
to be limited and unlikely to have
a major impact in practice on the
HICP annual average rates of
change.
Eurostat made a compliance
monitoring visit in 2007 and
con
fi
rmed that in general the
methods used for producing the
HICP are satisfactory. There
were no apparent instances of
non-compliance with the HICP
methodology.
No recent compliance
monitoring visit has been
conducted by Eurostat.
Nevertheless, the ECB is not
aware of any issue of non-
compliance regarding the
Swedish HICP.
224
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2 HICP
INFLATION
This section considers the methodology and quality
of the statistics underlying the measurement of
price developments, speci
fi
cally the Harmonised
Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The HICP was
developed for the purpose of assessing convergence
in terms of price stability on a comparable basis. It
is published for all Member States by Eurostat.
4
The HICP covering the euro area as a whole has
been the main measure of price developments for
the single monetary policy of the ECB since
January 1999.
Article 1 of Protocol No 13 on the convergence
criteria referred to in Article 140(1) of the TFEU
requires price convergence to be measured
by means of the consumer price index on a
comparable basis, taking into account differences
in national de
fi
nitions. In October 1995 Council
Regulation (EC) No 2494/95 concerning
harmonised indices of consumer prices was
adopted. Furthermore, the harmonisation
For details on methodological aspects of the HICP, see
4
âHarmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) â A Short
Guide for Usersâ, Publications Of
fi
ce for Of
fi
cial Publications of
the European Union, Luxembourg, 2004.
Table 1
Quality and integrity of convergence statistics (continued)
Poland
Romania
Sweden
Other
issues
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP in
terms of accuracy and reliability to
be generally adequate. However, it
recommended some improvements
and/or further analysis to the
methodology or data used in
speci
fi
c areas.
Eurostat considered the
representativity of the HICP in
terms of accuracy and reliability
to be generally adequate.
However, it recommended some
improvements and/or further
analysis to the methodology or
data used in speci
fi
c areas.
No outstanding statistical
issues identi
fi
ed.
Government
fi
nance statistics
Data coverage
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit and
debt data are provided for the
period 2000-09.
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit
and debt data are provided for
the period 2000-09.
Revenue, expenditure, de
fi
cit
and debt data are provided for
the period 2000-09.
Outstanding statistical
issues
No outstanding statistical issues
identi
fi
ed.
No outstanding statistical
issues identi
fi
ed.
No outstanding statistical
issues identi
fi
ed.
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment
No breakdown of the net acquisition
of shares and other equity are
available for the years before 2001.
Fluctuations of the DDA in 2001
and in 2004 are mainly owing to
privatisations. In 2008 high and
positive DDA is determined mainly
by foreign exchange holding gains.
High and volatile
fi
gures for the
period 2000-02. The reduction
in the value of DDA is largely
determined by an increase in
privatisations over time and
development of the valuation
of foreign values inside the
government debt. High DDA
in 2006 and 2008 are mainly
owing to large transactions
in currency and deposits and
privatisations.
Low data coverage; breakdown
of valuation effects on debt
and transactions in
fi
nancial
derivatives are not available.
Institution responsible
for the compilation of
EDP data
The NSI, in cooperation with the
Ministry of Finance, compiles the
actual EDP data, and the Ministry
of Finance provides the forecasts.
The NCB is not directly involved in
the compilation of these statistics.
The Ministry of Finance
has predominant role in the
compilation of the actual
EDP data and forecasts.
The NCB is directly involved
in the compilation of
fi
nancial
accounts data and the NSI,
owing to shortage of manpower,
is providing support on a few
macro-economic datasets
(investment, GDP) and the
reporting of data.
The NSI, in cooperation with
the Ministry of Finance,
compiles the actual EDP
data, and the Ministry of
Finance provides the forecasts.
The NCB is not directly
involved in the compilation of
these statistics.
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measures introduced for HICPs have been based
on several Council and Commission regulations.
HICPs use common standards for the coverage
of the items, the territory and the population
included (all these issues are major reasons for
differences between national consumer price
indices). Common standards have also been
established in several other areas, for example
the treatment of new goods and services.
The HICPs use annually updated expenditure
weights (or less frequent updates if this does
not have a signi
fi
cant effect on the index).
They cover all goods and services included
in household
fi
nal monetary consumption
expenditure, which is derived from the national
accounts domestic concept of household
fi
nal
consumption expenditure, but currently excludes
owner-occupied housing costs. The prices
observed are the prices households actually pay for
goods and services in monetary transactions and
thus include all taxes (less subsidies) on products,
e.g. VAT and excise duties. Expenditure on
health, education and social services are covered
to the extent that they are
fi
nanced (directly or
through private insurance) by households and not
reimbursed by the government.
Estimates of the effect of administered prices on
the HICP refer to prices which are directly set
or signi
fi
cantly in
fl
uenced by the government,
including national regulators. They are based on
a common de
fi
nition and compilation and are
published by Eurostat.
COMPLIANCE WITH LEGAL MINIMUM STANDARDS
In March 2004 and in 2006 Eurostat validated
and con
fi
rmed the compliance of all Member
States under consideration (except Bulgaria and
Romania, which were not yet Member States)
with the legal minimum standards for the HICP
on the basis of a self-assessment made by the
national statistical authorities of the countries
concerned. However, as the HICP has been
harmonised in stages, HICP data before 2001
are not fully comparable with the most recent
data, with the exception of the data for Sweden,
which has participated in the compilation of the
HICP from the outset in 1996.
Since 2006 Eurostat has carried out compliance
monitoring visits to all countries covered by
this convergence report (including Bulgaria and
Romania), with the exception of Sweden. For
Hungary and Poland, some instances of non-
compliance with the HICP methodology were
found, but were considered by Eurostat to be
limited and unlikely to have a major impact in
practice on the HICP annual average rates of
change used in this report. For the remaining
countries, Eurostat concluded that the methods
used for producing the HICP were satisfactory
and, in most cases, revealed no apparent instances
of non-compliance with the HICP methodology.
3
GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS
This section describes the methodology and
quality of the statistics used to measure
fi
scal
developments. GFS are based mainly on national
accounts concepts and should comply with the
ESA 95
5
and Council Regulation (EC)
No 479/2009 on the application of the Protocol
on the excessive de
fi
cit procedure. Concepts
such as âgovernmentâ, âsurplus/de
fi
citâ,
âinterest expenditureâ, âinvestmentâ, âdebtâ and
âgross domestic product (GDP)â with reference
to the ESA 95 are de
fi
ned in Protocol No 12 on
the EDP, together with Council Regulation (EC)
No 479/2009. The ESA 95 is consistent with
other international statistical standards, such as
the System of National Accounts 1993
(SNA 93). EDP statistics refer to the ESA 95
institutional sector âgeneral governmentâ. This
comprises central government, state government
(in Member States with a federal structure),
local government and social security funds.
It typically does not include public corporations.
6
The EDP general government de
fi
cit (-)/
surplus (+) is equal to the ESA 95 ânet
Council Regulation (EC) No 2223/96 of 25 June 1996 on
5
the European system of national and regional accounts in the
Community, OJ L 310, 30.11.1996, pp. 1-469.
In recent years, the 2008 SNA has been prepared by the
6
United Nations Statistics Division and is available on the website
(http://unstats.un.org). The ESA 95 is currently under revision.
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lending (+)/net borrowing (-)â plus ânet
settlements under swaps and forward rate
agreementsâ.
7
ESA 95 net lending (+)/net
borrowing (-) is equal to âtotal revenueâ minus
âtotal expenditureâ. While most transactions
among general government units related to
revenue and expenditure are not consolidated, the
distributive transactions âinterestâ, âother current
transfersâ, âinvestment grantsâ and âother capital
transfersâ are consolidated. The primary
government de
fi
cit/surplus is the government
de
fi
cit/surplus excluding interest expenditure.
The EDP general government debt is the sum
of the outstanding gross liabilities at nominal
value (face value) as classi
fi
ed in the ESA 95
categories âcurrency and depositsâ, âsecurities
other than shares excluding
fi
nancial derivativesâ
(e.g. government bills, notes and bonds) and
âloansâ. It excludes
fi
nancial derivatives, such as
swaps, as well as trade credits and other liabilities
not represented by a
fi
nancial document, such as
overpaid tax advances. However, in March 2008
Eurostat released a guidance note that
includes accounting rules on the treatment
of lump sums received by government under
âoff-market interest rate swapsâ. This guidance
states that such transactions are basically
borrowing in disguise. The lump sum paid to
government at the inception of an off-market
swap should therefore be recorded as a loan
to government in national accounts, and
thus has an impact on government debt.
The EDP debt also excludes contingent liabilities,
such as government guarantees and pension
commitments. Estimates of such items have to
be based on far-reaching assumptions and may
vary widely. While government debt is a gross
concept in the sense that neither
fi
nancial nor
non-
fi
nancial assets are deducted from liabilities,
it is consolidated within the general government
sector and therefore does not include government
debt held by other government units.
The measure of GDP used for compiling
government de
fi
cit and debt ratios is the ESA 95
GDP at current market prices.
3.1 DATA
COVERAGE
In April 2010 the European Commission
transmitted to the ECB data on general government
fi
nancial positions (general government de
fi
cit/
surplus and debt) for the period 2000-09, as well
as forecasts for 2010. The NCBs of the Eurosystem
provide the ECB with detailed GFS data under the
ECBâs GFS Guideline. Although the Guideline
is legally binding only on the euro area NCBs,
the non-euro area NCBs also transmit GFS data
to the ECB by the same deadlines and using the
same procedures. The GFS Guideline lays down
requirements for the transmission of annual data
with detailed breakdowns of annual revenue and
expenditure, debt and de
fi
cit-debt adjustment.
8
In addition, it requests
fi
gures on general
government debt with breakdowns by instrument,
by initial and residual maturity and by holder.
As regards compliance with the legal requirement
for Member States to transmit GFS data to
the European Commission, annual revenue,
expenditure, de
fi
cit/surplus and debt data for the
period 2000-09 have been transmitted by most
of the Member States under consideration.
3.2 OUTSTANDING STATISTICAL ISSUES
The statistics for the EDP must re
fl
ect decisions
taken by Eurostat in line with the ESA 95 for
speci
fi
c cases involving the general government
sector. On 15 July 2009 Eurostat published a
decision on the statistical recording of public
interventions to support
fi
nancial institutions
and
fi
nancial markets during the
fi
nancial
crisis.
The inclusion of ânet settlements under swaps and forward rate
7
agreementsâ in the EDP de
fi
cit implies a discrepancy between
the two balancing items, the EDP general government de
fi
cit (-)/
surplus (+) and the ESA 95 net lending (+)/net borrowing (-).
Settlements received by government reduce the EDP de
fi
cit,
whereas settlements paid by government increase the EDP de
fi
cit.
The Guideline is complemented by a âGovernment Finance
8
Statistics Guideâ focusing on the practical aspects that should
assist, in particular, the NCBs in contributing to the compilation
of government
fi
nance statistics. See the ECBâs website
(http://www.ecb.europa.eu).
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As outlined in Box 1, the public interventions
to support the
fi
nancial sector covered a wide
range of operations, for which the methodologies
applied are based on ESA 95. These operations
refer to recapitalisations of banks and other
fi
nancial institutions, provisions of loans, asset
purchases and securities lending. Furthermore, this
decision also covered the issue of how to classify
speci
fi
c institutional units, such as government-
owned special purpose entities, or how to treat
guarantees, which the government has provided
in order to support the
fi
nancial sector.
Box 1
THE STATISTICAL RECORDING OF PUBLIC INTERVENTIONS TO SUPPORT THE FINANCIAL SECTOR
On 15 July 2009 Eurostat published a decision on the statistical recording of public interventions
to support
fi
nancial institutions and
fi
nancial markets during the
fi
nancial crisis. This box
summarises these recording principles.
The public interventions in support of the
fi
nancial sector covered a wide range of operations.
Eurostat has based their statistical recording on the established principles of the ESA 95, which
have been applied to the speci
fi
c circumstances of the
fi
nancial crisis.
Statistical recording principles
Recapitalisations of banks and other
fi
nancial institutions through purchases of new equity at
market prices are recorded as
fi
nancial transactions without any (immediate) impact on the
government de
fi
cit/surplus. If the purchase takes place above the market price, a capital transfer
for the difference is recorded, thereby negatively affecting the government budget balance.
The purchase of unquoted shares in banks (such as preferred shares) is recorded as a
fi
nancial
transaction, as long as the transaction is expected to yield a suf
fi
cient rate of return under EU
state aid rules.
Loans are recorded as
fi
nancial transactions at the time they are granted, if there is no irrefutable
evidence that the loans will not be repaid. Any subsequent cancellations or forgiveness of loans
will lead to a recording of a capital transfer.
Asset purchases involve the acquisition of existing (possibly impaired) assets from
fi
nancial
institutions. The market value of some assets may be dif
fi
cult to determine. In this respect,
Eurostat has decided on a speci
fi
c âdecision treeâ for valuing securities. In short, if the purchase
price paid by government is above the market price (the latter being determined as the price
either on a) an active market or b) at an auction, or determined c) by the accounting books of the
seller or d) by a valuation of an independent entity), a capital transfer for the difference between
the purchase price and the market price has to be recorded. If the assets are sold later, under
similar market conditions, but at a lower price than the purchase price paid by government, the
price difference should be recorded as a capital transfer.
Government securities lent or swapped without cash collateral in temporary liquidity schemes
are not counted as government debt; neither are government guarantees, which are contingent
liabilities in national accounts. Provisions made for losses on guarantees are not recorded in the
national accounts. A call on a guarantee will usually result in the government making a payment
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Table 2 summarises the impact on government
debt of the interventions to support the
fi
nancial
sector during the
fi
nancial and economic
crisis. Only three of the nine countries under
consideration in this report have conducted
such interventions. The impact on government
debt was 5.8% of GDP in Latvia, 1.7% of GDP
in Hungary and only 0.1% of GDP in Sweden
by the end of 2009. However, the Swedish
government granted guarantees of 8.9% of GDP
to
fi
nancial corporations by the end of 2009.
These guarantees are contingent government
liabilities and will only be added to government
debt when they are called. Guarantees of 3.5% of
GDP were granted by the government of Latvia.
The Hungarian government has not yet provided
any guarantees, but has indicated its willingness
to grant guarantees of up to 1.1% of GDP,
if necessary (Table 3). The Latvian and Swedish
governments have indicated their willingness to
increase these guarantees up to 20% and 49.7%
of GDP respectively, in case of need.
to the original creditors or assuming a debt. In both cases, a capital transfer will be recorded from
government for the amount called.
Recapitalisations, loans and asset purchases increase government debt if the government has to
borrow to
fi
nance these operations. Interest and dividend payments, as well as fees received for
securities lent and guarantees provided, improve the government budget balance.
Classi
fi
cation of new units and re-routing
Governments have in some cases created new units or used existing units outside the general
government sector to support
fi
nancial institutions. This raises two additional issues:
fi
rst, the sector
classi
fi
cation of the new unit must be determined (i.e. outside or inside the general government
sector); second, even if the unit is classi
fi
ed outside the general government sector, certain
transactions carried out by this unit may need to be re-routed through the government accounts.
For the sector classi
fi
cation of a newly created entity, Eurostat has decided that government-owned
special purpose entities (SPEs), which have as their purpose to conduct speci
fi
c government
policies and which have no autonomy of decision, are classi
fi
ed within the government sector.
On the contrary, majority privately-owned SPEs with a temporary duration, set up with the sole
purpose to address the
fi
nancial crisis, are to be recorded outside the government sector if the
expected losses that they will bear are small in comparison with the total size of their liabilities.
As regards the rescue operations undertaken by a public corporation classi
fi
ed outside general
government, Eurostat has decided that these operations should be subject to rearrangements
through the government accounts (with a concomitant deterioration of government balance
and debt) if there is evidence that the government has instructed the public corporation to carry
out the operations. In the speci
fi
c case of central bank liquidity operations, these operations
fall within the remit of central banks to preserve
fi
nancial stability and therefore should not be
re-routed through the government accounts.
In its October 2009 press release on government de
fi
cit and debt, Eurostat also published
supplementary information on the activities undertaken by the European governments to
support the
fi
nancial sector (e.g. government guarantees, the debt of SPEs classi
fi
ed outside
the government sector, temporary liquidity schemes). This is essential to gauge the
fi
scal risks
arising from governmentsâ contingent liabilities and the liabilities of newly created units that are
classi
fi
ed inside the private sector.
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Table 2
Impact on government debt of interventions to support the financial sector
(outstanding amounts as a percentage of GDP)
Country
Cumulative
end-2008
end-2009
Latvia
Total impact on government debt
4.1
5.8
Capital injections
4.1
5.8
of which
Acquisition of shares
0.0
0.9
Loans
4.1
5.0
Asset purchase
0.0
0.0
Debt assumptions/cancellations
0.0
0.0
Other measures
1)
0.0
0.0
Hungary
Total impact on government debt
0.0
1.7
Capital injections
0.0
1.7
of which
Acquisition of shares
0.0
0.1
Loans
0.0
1.6
Asset purchase
0.0
0.0
Debt assumptions/cancellations
0.0
0.0
Other measures
1)
0.0
0.0
Sweden
Total impact on government debt
0.1
0.1
Capital injections
0.1
0.1
of which
Acquisition of shares
0.1
0.1
Loans
0.0
0.0
Asset purchase
0.0
0.0
Debt assumptions/cancellations
0.0
0.0
Other measures
1)
0.0
0.0
Source: ESCB.
1) For instance deposits with private banks.
Table 3
Government contingent liabilities
1)
due to interventions to ease the financial crisis
(outstanding amounts as a percentage of GDP)
Cumulative
Country end-2008
end-2009
Ceiling
Latvia
Total contingent liabilities
0.0
3.5
20.0
Government guarantees of SPE
2)
debt
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other guarantees
3)
0.0
3.5
20.0
Asset swaps/lending
4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Hungary
Total contingent liabilities
0.0
0.0
1.1
Government guarantees of SPE
2)
debt
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other guarantees
3)
0.0
0.0
1.1
Asset swaps/lending
4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Sweden
Total contingent liabilities
4.7
8.9
49.7
Government guarantees of SPE
2)
debt
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other guarantees
3)
4.7
8.9
49.7
Asset swaps/lending
4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source: ESCB.
1) Government contingent liabilities are contractual arrangements, which specify one or more conditions that must be ful
fi
lled before
government assumes the liabilities of the other party to the contract.
2) Special purpose entities (SPEs) included here are entities in which government has a signi
fi
cant role, including a guarantee, but which are
classi
fi
ed outside of the general government sector. They are set up for a temporary duration with the sole purpose of addressing the
fi
nancial crisis.
3) Other guarantees cover all guarantees provided by government except guarantees of SPE debt and retail deposit guarantees.
4) Exchange (swap) of assets and securities lending are off-balance sheet operations and do not add to government debt.
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Latvia, Hungary and Romania have received
international
fi
nancial assistance to deal with
the effects of the
fi
nancial crisis from the IMF,
the EU and other international institutions
(the World Bank, EIB, IFC or bilateral support
from other EU Member States) in various
instalments since the end of 2008. Poland has
entered into a Flexible Credit Line agreement
with the IMF, which so far has not been exercised.
In practice, the funds granted by the international
institutions have been are usually transferred
to a deposit account of the Treasury at the
NCB. Two different cases may be identi
fi
ed:
a) in most cases, the bene
fi
ciary of these loans
has been central government. Accordingly,
the recording is rather straightforward as the
granting of the loans increases (immediately)
government debt and (gradually) government
de
fi
cit due to accruing interest payable;
b) complex cases refer to loans granted to
NCBs. Usually, these loans are recorded as
lending to NCBs. However, they are classi
fi
ed
as government debt if: (i) the funds are taken to
fi
nance activities usually performed by general
government; (ii) the own resources of an NCB
are not suf
fi
cient to cover all costs related
Table 4
Financial support by international institutions or countries during the financial crisis
(outstanding amount as a percentage of GDP)
Cumulative
1)
Country 2008
2009
Ceiling
2)
Latvia
Loan to the government
2.5
16.9
Loan to the national central bank
0.0
0.0
Total loan
2.5
16.9
39.6
of which provided by
European Union
3)
0.0
11.7
16.5
IMF 2.5
4.1
8.8
World Bank
0.0
1.1
2.1
EBRD, Czech Republic and Poland
0.0
0.0
2.1
Nordic countries
4)
0.0
0.0
10.1
Hungary
Loan to the government
6.6
12.9
Loan to the national central bank
0.0
1.5
Total loan
6.6
14.4
20.8
of which provided by
European Union
3)
2.0
5.8
6.7
IMF 4.6
8.6
13.0
World Bank
0.0
0.0
1.0
Poland
5)
Loan to the government
0.0
0.0
Loan to the national central bank
0.0
0.0
Total loan
0.0
0.0
4.6
of which provided by
IMF
0.0
0.0
4.6
Romania
Loan to the government
0.0
2.4
Loan to the national central bank
0.0
4.9
Total loan
0.0
7.3
16.8
of which provided by
European Union
3)
0.0
1.3
4.3
IMF 0.0
5.7
10.7
World Bank
0.0
0.3
0.9
EBRD, EIB and IFC
0.0
0.0
0.9
Source: ESCB.
1) The exchange rate used in the table is that recorded at the time when the country received the loan, while the ceiling for future support
is calculated at the exchange rate.
2) Including provisions of future
fi
nancial support.
3) European Commission responsible for implementing the disbursment and the conditionality.
4) Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Denmark and Norway.
5) Poland received access to precautionary
fi
nancing in the form of the IMFâs Flexible Credit Line, which had not yet been exercised.
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to the repayment of the loan (principal and
interest); or (iii) government is bearing the risks
associated with the borrowing. In these cases,
loans granted by the IMF or other international
organisations should be re-routed and classi
fi
ed
as government debt.
Table 4 shows that, by the end of 2009, Hungary
had borrowed loans of 14.4% of GDP from
the IMF and the EU. Outstanding loans from
the EU, the IMF and the World Bank to Latvia
amounted to 16.9% of GDP by the end of 2009.
The corresponding outstanding loans provided to
Romania were 7.3% of GDP.
3.3 DEFICIT-DEBT
ADJUSTMENT
The change in government debt outstanding at
the end of two consecutive years may diverge
from the government de
fi
cit/surplus for the
respective year. For example, government debt
may be reduced by using the receipts from
privatising public corporations or by selling
other
fi
nancial assets without any (immediate)
impact on the government de
fi
cit.
The explanation of the sum of the de
fi
cit (-)/
surplus (+) and the increase (+)/decrease (-) in
government debt, the de
fi
cit-debt adjustment
(DDA), is also used in the assessment of the
quality and consistency of GFS.
9
A large or
volatile DDA does not necessarily indicate a
quality issue, as long as its components are fully
explained. The components of this difference
are net acquisitions/net sales of
fi
nancial assets,
valuation changes of general government debt,
and other changes in general government debt.
To compile these components, a fully-
fl
edged
system of ESA 95
fi
nancial accounts for the
government sector has to be available
(transactions, other
fl
ows and stocks) and
reconciled with nominal debt.
In Estonia the DDA was positive for several
years, including 2009. However, in 2008 the
DDA was negative (-1.8% of GDP) owing to net
sales of
fi
nancial assets, mainly securities other
than shares. In Latvia the DDA was relatively
high in 2008 and 2009 (7.2% and 3.1% of GDP
respectively), which is explained by acquisition
of deposits and of shares and other equity
(in 2008 and 2009), as well as acquisition of loans
and securities other than shares (in 2008). The
DDA for Hungary was particularly high in 2008
(6.0% of GDP), mainly owing to an exceptional
acquisition of currency and deposits. In Romania,
after a negative value in 2008 (-2.3% of GDP),
in 2009 the DDA amounted to 1.5% of GDP,
re
fl
ecting the increase in government holdings of
currency. Rather low data coverage for the DDA
has been identi
fi
ed for Sweden.
4 EXCHANGE
RATES
Article 3 of Protocol No 13 on the convergence
criteria referred to in Article 140(1) of the
Treaty de
fi
nes what is meant by the criterion on
participation in the exchange rate mechanism
of the European Monetary System. In a policy
position dated 18 December 2003, the Governing
Council of the ECB speci
fi
ed that this criterion
refers to participation in the exchange rate
mechanism (ERM II) for a period of at least
two years prior to the convergence assessment
without severe tensions, in particular, without
devaluing against the euro.
The bilateral exchange rates of the Member
Statesâ currencies vis-Ă -vis the euro are
daily reference rates recorded by the ECB at
2.15 p.m. (following the daily concertation
procedure between central banks), which are
published on the ECBâs website. Real bilateral
exchange rates are constructed by de
fl
ating the
nominal exchange rate index using the HICP or
the CPI. Nominal and real effective exchange
rates are constructed by applying overall trade
weights (based on a geometric weighting) to
the bilateral nominal and real exchange rates
of the Member Statesâ currencies vis-Ă -vis
the currencies of selected trading partners.
Both nominal and real effective exchange rate
statistics are calculated by the ECB. An increase
in these indices corresponds to an appreciation
âStock-
fl
ow adjustment (SFA) for the Member States, the euro
9
area and the EU27 for the period 2005-08, as reported in the
April 2009 EDP noti
fi
cationâ, Eurostat, April 2009, available on
Eurostatâs website (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu).
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of the Member Stateâs currency. Overall trade
weights refer to trade in manufactured goods
and are calculated to account for third-market
effects. The effective exchange rate indices
are based on moving weights for the periods
1995-97, 1998-2000, 2001-03 and 2004-06.
The effective exchange rate (EER) indices are
obtained by chain-linking the indicators based
on each of these four sets of trade weights at the
end of each three-year period. The base period
of the resulting EER index is the
fi
rst quarter of
1999. The group of trading partners comprises
the euro area, non-euro area Member States,
Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Japan,
Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland
and the United States.
5
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
Article 4 of Protocol No 13 on the convergence
criteria referred to in Article 140(1) of the
Treaty requires interest rates to be measured
on the basis of long-term government bonds
or comparable securities, taking into account
differences in national de
fi
nitions. While
Article 5 assigns the responsibility for providing
the statistical data for the application of the
Protocol to the European Commission, the
ECB, given its expertise in the area, assists in
this process by de
fi
ning representative long-
term interest rates and collecting the data from
the NCBs for transmission to the Commission.
This is a continuation of the work carried out by
the EMI as part of the preparations for Stage Three
of EMU in close liaison with the Commission.
The conceptual work resulted in the de
fi
nition
of seven key features to be considered in the
calculation of long-term interest rates, as
presented in Table 5. Long-term interest rates
refer to bonds denominated in national currency.
This statistical framework de
fi
nes a harmonised
set of long-term interest rates for convergence
assessment purposes covering most countries.
However, as Estonia has very limited government
debt, there is no suitable long-term government
bond available. In addition, owing to the
absence of a developed bond market in Estonian
kroons, no appropriate other long-term debt
security denominated in national currency that is
comparable with long-term government bonds
has been identi
fi
ed for the purpose of assessing
convergence. Thus, no harmonised long-term
interest rate indicator can be provided for Estonia.
6 OTHER
FACTORS
The last paragraph of Article 140(1) of the
Treaty states that the reports of the European
Commission and the ECB shall take account of,
in addition to the four main criteria, the results
of the integration of markets, the situation and
development of the national balance of payments
(b.o.p.) and an examination of the development
of unit labour costs and other price indices.
Table 5
Statistical framework for defining long-term interest rates for the purpose
of assessing convergence
Concept
Recommendation
Bond issuer
The bond should be issued by the central government.
Maturity
As close as possible to ten yearsâ residual maturity. Any replacement of bonds should minimise maturity
drift; the structural liquidity of the market must be considered.
Coupon effects
No direct adjustment.
Taxation
Gross of tax.
Choice of bonds
The selected bonds should be suf
fi
ciently liquid. This requirement should determine the choice between
benchmark or sample approaches, depending on national market conditions.
Yield formula
The âredemption yieldâ formula should be applied.
Aggregation
Where there is more than one bond in the sample, a simple average of the yields should be used to produce
the representative rate.
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A N N E X
S T A T I S T I C A L
M E T H O D O L O G Y
Whereas, for the four main criteria, Protocol
No 13 stipulates that the Commission will
provide the data to be used for the assessment of
compliance and describes those statistics in more
detail, it makes no reference to the provision of
statistics for these âother factorsâ.
Concerning the results of the integration of
markets, two sets of indicators are shown,
namely: i) statistics on
fi
nancial development and
integration referring to the structure of the
fi
nancial
system;
10
and ii) statistics on (external)
fi
nancial
and non-
fi
nancial integration with the euro area.
11
The indicator concerning the debt securities
issued by resident corporations has been reported
by the respective NCBs in accordance with the
methodology set out in Guideline ECB/2007/9, as
amended. The indicator relating to the stock market
capitalisation refers to quoted shares issued by
resident corporations following the methodology
given in Guideline ECB/2007/9, as amended.
The indicators concerning MFI credit to residents
and claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs
are based on available data collected by the
ECB as part of the MFI balance sheet statistics
collection framework. The data are obtained
from the countries under review and, for the latter
indicator, also from the euro area countries under
Regulation ECB/2001/13, as amended. Historical
data have been compiled by the relevant NCBs,
where appropriate. For the indicators mentioned,
the statistical data relating to the euro area cover
the countries that had adopted the euro at the time
to which the statistics relate.
With regard to the b.o.p. and the international
investment position (i.i.p.), the statistics are
compiled in accordance with the concepts and
de
fi
nitions laid down in the
fi
fth edition of the
IMF Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5) and
following methodological standards set out by
the ECB and Eurostat. However, high priority
should continue to be given to a review of the
residency criterion, which treats corporations
without a physical presence in a country as
resident institutional units if they are registered
in that country. This report examines the sum
of the current account balance and the balance
on the capital account, which corresponds to the
net lending/net borrowing of the total economy.
In addition, it is worth noting that the distinction
between current and capital transfers is not always
straightforward in practice, as it depends on the
recipientâs use of the transfer. In particular, this
applies to the classi
fi
cation of the current and
capital components of transfers between Union
institutions and Member States.
12
With regard to producer price indices, these data
refer to domestic sales of total industry excluding
construction. The statistics are collected on a
harmonised basis under the Union Regulation
concerning short-term statistics.
13
Data for
Estonia prior to 2003 and for Poland prior to 2001
refer to total sales, including non-domestic sales.
Statistics on unit labour costs (calculated as
compensation per employee divided by GDP
chain-linked volumes per person employed) are
derived from data provided under the ESA 95
transmission programme.
Statistics on the harmonised unemployment
rate (calculated as the number of unemployed
over the labour force) take into account persons
between the ages of 15 and 74.
Debt securities issued by resident corporations, stock market
10
capitalisation, MFI credit to non-government residents and
claims of euro area MFIs on resident MFIs.
External trade and investment position with the euro area.
11
For more details, see âEuropean Union balance of payments/
12
international investment position statistical methodsâ, ECB, May
2007.
Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 of 19 May 1998 concerning
13
short-term statistics, OJ L 162, 5.6.1998, p. 1, as amended by
Regulation (EC) No 1158/2005 of the European Parliament and
of the Council of 6 July 2005, OJ L 191,22.7.2005, p. 1.
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
6
EXAMINATION OF COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION WITH THE TREATIES
The following country assessments report only
on those provisions of national legislation which
the ECB considered to be problematic either
from the perspective of an NCBâs independence
within the ESCB or from the perspective of its
subsequent integration into the Eurosystem.
6.1 BULGARIA
6.1.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian
National Bank) and its operations:
the Bulgarian Constitution;
â
1
and
the Law on
â
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank) (hereinafter the
âLawâ).
2
The Law on the prevention and disclosure of
con
fl
icts of interests (hereinafter the âLaw on the
prevention of con
fl
icts of interestsâ)
3
regulates
public of
fi
ce holders.
6.1.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to the independence of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National Bank), the
Law and the Law on the prevention of con
fl
icts
of interests need to be adapted as set out below.
6.1.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 44 of the Law provides that neither
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National
Bank), nor its Governor, nor the members
of its Governing Council may seek or take
instructions from the Council of Ministers or
from any other body or institution. The ECB
understands that the provision encompasses
both national and foreign institutions in line
with Article 130 of the Treaty and Article 7
of the Statute. For legal certainty reasons, at
the
fi
rst opportunity, this provision should be
brought fully into line with Article 130 of the
Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute.
6.1.2.2 PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 14(1) of the Law lists the grounds for
dismissal of the members of the Governing
Council, according to which the National
Assembly or Bulgariaâs President may relieve a
member of the Governing Council from of
fi
ce,
including the Governor, if they: (i) no longer
ful
fi
l the conditions required for the performance
of their duties under Article 11(4);
4
(ii) are in
practice unable to perform their duties for more
than six months; or (iii) have been guilty of
serious professional misconduct.
The
fi
rst sub-paragraph of Article 14(1) of
the Law cross-refers to the conditions of
appointment and election in Article 11(4).
To avoid any circumvention of the conditions
for dismissal of Governors as established
by Article 14.2 of the Statute, the
fi
rst
sub-paragraph of Article 14(1) of the Law
should only foresee conditions that are objective,
clearly de
fi
ned and linked to the performance of
duties of the members of the Governing Council.
Therefore, this provision needs to be revised
so that it mirrors the wording of Article 14.2
of the Statute.
The second sub-paragraph of Article 14(1) of
the Law is in addition to the two grounds for
dismissal provided for in Article 14.2 of the
Statute. The third sub-paragraph narrows the
concept of âserious misconductâ in Article 14.2
Constitution of the Republic of Bulgaria,
1
Darjaven vestnik
issue
56, 13.6.1991.
Law on
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank),
2
Darjaven vestnik
issue 46, 10.6.1997.
Darjaven vestnik
3
issue 94, 31.10.2008.
Under Article 11(4) of the Law, a member of the Governing
4
Council, including the Governor, may not: (i) be sentenced to
imprisonment for a premeditated crime; (ii) declared bankrupt in
their capacity as sole proprietor or general partner in a commercial
company; (iii) have been a member of a managing or supervisory
body of a company or cooperative in the two years prior to the
said company or cooperative being declared insolvent; (iv) be
sole proprietor, unlimited liability partner in a trading company,
manager, trade proxy, trade representative, procurator, trade
agent, liquidator or receiver, member of a management or
controlling body of a trade company or a cooperative, with
the exception of companies where
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank) participates; (v) be a spouse of, live
with, be a relative in direct or lateral line up to and including the
fourth degree, or be connected by marriage up to and including the
second degree to a member of the Governing Council.
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of the Statute to âserious professional
misconductâ. Article 14(1) of the Law needs
to be adapted further in these respects to fully
comply with Article 14.2 of the Statute.
The Law on the prevention of con
fl
icts of
interests provides that breach of its provisions
and the existence of a con
fl
ict of interests are
grounds for dismissal of the Governor,
Deputy Governors and the other members of
the Governing Council of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National Bank). Thus, the
Law on the prevention of con
fl
icts of interests
speci
fi
es grounds for dismissal that are in
addition to the two grounds contained in
Article 14.2 of the Statute. Therefore, the Law
on the prevention of con
fl
icts of interests is
incompatible with the Treaty and the Statute and
needs to be brought into line with them.
5
Article 14(2) of the Law provides that if the
duties of a Governing Council member cease
before the expiry of the memberâs term of of
fi
ce,
another person will be elected or appointed for
the remainder of the term of of
fi
ce. Article 14(2)
of the Law is incompatible with Article 14.2 of
the Statute establishing a minimum term of of
fi
ce
of
fi
ve years and should be adapted accordingly.
The Law is silent on the right of national
courts to review a decision to dismiss any
member, other than the Governor, of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National Bank)
decision-making bodies, who is involved in
the performance of ESCB-related tasks. Even
though this right may be available under general
law, providing speci
fi
cally for such a right of
review could increase legal certainty.
Article 12(1) and (2) of the Law provide for the
National Assemblyâs powers to elect the Governor
and the Deputy Governors of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank). In a recent
case, the National Assembly claimed and acted
upon the claim that it has the power to annul or
amend its previous decisions, including decisions
concerning the election of the Governor and
Deputy Governors of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank) taken under
Article 12(1) and (2) of the Law. In practice, any
proper election or appointment of members of
an NCBâs decision-making body should enable
them to assume of
fi
ce following their election.
Once elected or appointed, the Governor and
the other members of the Governing Council of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National
Bank) may not be dismissed under conditions
other than those mentioned in Article 14.2 of
the Statute, even if they have not yet taken up
their duties.
6.1.3 CONFIDENTIALITY
Article 4(2) of the Law provides that
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank)
may not disclose or pass to third parties any
information obtained which is of a con
fi
dential
banking or commercial nature for banks and the
other participants in the money turnover and
credit relations, except in the cases provided
for by the Law on the protection of classi
fi
ed
information. Under Article 23(2) of the Law,
the employees of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank) may not disclose any
information concerning negotiations, contracts
entered into, the level of assets on customersâ
deposits and their operations, information
received by
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian
National Bank), as well as any circumstances
concerning the activities of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank) or its customers
which constitute of
fi
cial, banking, commercial
or other secrecy protected by law, even after the
termination of their contracts of employment.
Under Article 37 of the Statute, professional
secrecy is an ESCB-wide matter. Therefore, the
ECB assumes that such exception is without
prejudice to the con
fi
dentiality obligations
towards the ECB and the ESCB.
6.1.4
MONETARY FINANCING AND PRIVILEGED
ACCESS
Article 45(1) of the Law provides that
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National Bank) may
not grant credits or guarantees in any form
See also Opinion CON/2009/13.
5
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
whatsoever, including through the purchase of
debt instruments, to the Council of Ministers,
municipalities, or to other government or
municipal institutions, organisations and
undertakings.
Pursuant to Article 45(2) of the
Law, this does not apply to the extension of
credits to state-owned and municipal banks
in emergency cases of liquidity risk that may
affect the stability of the banking system.
Article 45(1) and (2) of the Law need to be
adjusted to be fully consistent with the Treaty.
In particular, the range of public sector entities
referred to in Article 45(1) of the Law needs
to be extended to include central governments,
regional, local or other public authorities, public
undertakings and bodies governed by public law
of other Member States and Union institutions
and bodies to fully mirror the wording of
Article 123 of the Treaty. Moreover,
Article 45(1) of the Law needs to be slightly
redrafted to ensure that it accurately re
fl
ects
the prohibition of monetary
fi
nancing to cover
both (a) lending âtoâ the range of public sector
entities; and (b) purchases of debt instruments
âfromâ the range of public sector entities.
The prohibition of monetary
fi
nancing prohibits
the direct purchase of public sector debt, but
such purchases in the secondary market are
allowed, in principle, as long as such secondary
market purchases are not used to circumvent
the objective of Article 123 of the Treaty. For
this reason the word âdirectâ should be inserted
in Article 45(1) of the Law.
Furthermore, while acknowledging the
particularities arising out of the currency-board
regime, i.e. prohibition on
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National Bank) extending
credit to credit institutions other than in the
context of emergency liquidity operations,
it is recommended that the scope of the
exemption addressed to publicly-owned credit
institutions is brought into line with the scope
of the exemption under the Treaty. Such
alignment would certainly be mandatory on the
introduction of the euro in Bulgaria.
6.1.5
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB INTO
THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to the legal integration of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank)
into
the Eurosystem, the Law needs to be adapted in
the respects set out below.
6.1.5.1 TASKS
Monetary policy
Article 2(1) and Article 3, Article 16, items 4
and 5 and Articles 28, 30, 31, 32, 35, 38, 41 and
61 of the Law, which provide for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National
Bank)
in the
fi
eld of monetary policy and
instruments for the implementation thereof, do
not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Article 33 of the Law, which empowers
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National
Bank) to enter into certain
fi
nancial transactions,
also fails to recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Article 4(1) and Article 42 of the Law, which
provide for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(
Bulgarian National Bank) relating to
the collection of statistics, do not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Article 20(1) and Articles 28, 31 and 32 of the
Law, which provide for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank)
with
regard to the management of of
fi
cial foreign
reserves, do not recognise the ECBâs powers in
this
fi
eld.
Payment systems
Articles 2(4) and 40(1) of the Law, which
provide for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank)
with regard
to the promotion of the smooth operation of
payment systems, do not recognise the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
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Issue of banknotes
Article 2(5), Article 16, item 9, and Articles 24 to
27 of the Law, which provide for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National
Bank) with regard to the issue of banknotes and
coins, do not recognise the Councilâs and the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.1.5.2 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
Article 49(4) of the Law, which provides that the
external auditor is appointed by the Governing
Council for a term of three years on the basis of
a procedure complying with the Law on public
procurement, does not recognise the Councilâs
and the ECBâs powers under Article 27.1 of the
Statute.
Financial reporting
Article 16, item 11 and Articles 46 and 49 of
the Law do not re
fl
ect the obligation to comply
with the Eurosystemâs regime for
fi
nancial
reporting of NCB operations, pursuant to
Article 26 of the Statute.
6.1.5.3 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Articles 28 to 31 of the Law, which provide
for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National Bank)
with regard to the
exchange rate policy, do not acknowledge the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.1.5.4 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Article 5, Article 16, item 12 and Article 37(4)
of the Law, which provide for the powers of
ĐŃНгаŃŃка
наŃОдна
йанка
(Bulgarian National
Bank)
with regard to international cooperation,
do not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.1.5.5 MISCELLANEOUS
Articles 61 and 62 of the Law do not recognise
the ECBâs powers to impose sanctions.
6.1.6 CONCLUSIONS
The Law and the Law on the prevention of
con
fl
icts of interest do not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition, and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Bulgaria
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.2 CZECH
REPUBLIC
6.2.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka and its operations:
the Czech Constitution,
â
6
Law No 6/1993 Coll. on
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
â
banka
(hereinafter the âLawâ).
No new legislation has been enacted in relation
to the points identi
fi
ed in the ECB Convergence
Report of May 2008, and those comments are
therefore largely repeated in this yearâs
assessment. The Czech Parliament is currently
debating a draft law on
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka
which will govern the status, powers,
competences and activities of
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
banka following the introduction of the euro in
the Czech Republic. This draft law was
submitted to the ECB for consultation in 2008.
7
6.2.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs
independence, the Law needs to be adapted in
the respects set out below.
6.2.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 3 of the Law obliges
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka
to submit a report on monetary development
to the Chamber of Deputies at least twice a
year for review; the Law also provides for an
optional extraordinary report to be prepared
pursuant to a Chamber of Deputies resolution.
Constitutional law No 1/1993 Coll.
6
Opinion CON/2008/21.
7
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
The Chamber of Deputies has the power to
acknowledge the report or ask for a revised
report; such a revised report must comply
with the Chamber of Deputiesâ requirements.
These parliamentary powers could potentially
breach the prohibition on giving instructions
to NCBs pursuant to Article 130 of the Treaty
and Article 7 of the Statute. Article 9(1) of the
Law also prohibits
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka and
its Board from taking instructions from the
President of the Czech Republic, Parliament,
the Government, administrative authorities or
any other body. Article 3 of the Law is therefore
incompatible with central bank independence
and should be adapted accordingly.
Article 47(5) of the Law requires
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
banka to submit a revised report within
six weeks if the Chamber of Deputies rejects its
annual
fi
nancial report. Such a revised report
must comply with the Chamber of Deputiesâ
requirements. Such parliamentary powers
breach the prohibition on approving, annulling
or deferring decisions. Article 47(5) of the
Law is therefore incompatible with central
bank independence and should be adapted
accordingly.
Pursuant to Law No 166/1993 Coll. on the
Supreme Audit Office (hereinafter the âNKU
Lawâ), the Supreme Audit Office (NKU) is
empowered to audit
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs
financial management as regards its operating
expenditure and expenditure for the purchase
of property. The ECB understands that:
(i) the NKUâs auditing powers in relation
to
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka are without prejudice
to Article 9 of the Law,
8
which concerns the
general prohibition on
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka
seeking or taking instructions from other
entities; and (ii) the NKU has no power to
interfere with either the external auditorsâ
opinion or with
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs
ESCB-related tasks.
In so far as this understanding is correct, the
NKUâs auditing powers vis-Ă -vis
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
banka are not incompatible with central bank
independence.
6.2.2.2 PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 6(13) of the Law includes a legal basis
for the President of the Czech Republic to relieve
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs Governor from his
of
fi
ce, namely âfailure to perform his functions
for a period of more than six monthsâ, which
is in addition to the two grounds for dismissal
provided for in Article 14.2 of the Statute.
Article 6(13) should therefore be brought into
line with Article 14.2 of the Statute.
The grounds for dismissal set out in Article 14.2
of the Statute are not mentioned in the Law in
respect of the other Board members who are
involved in ESCB-related tasks. Article 6(11)
and (12) of the Law should be brought into line
with Article 14.2 of the Statute.
The Law is silent on the right of national
courts to review a decision to dismiss any
member, other than the Governor, of the NCBâs
decision-making bodies who is involved in
the performance of ESCB-related tasks. Even
though this right may be available under general
law, providing speci
fi
cally for such a right of
review could increase legal certainty.
6.2.2.3 FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka is faced with accumulated
losses beyond the level of its capital and
reserves, which have been carried over for
several years. A negative capital situation may
adversely affect an NCBâs ability to perform
its ESCB-related tasks as well as its national
tasks. In order to comply with the principle of
fi
nancial independence and with a view to the
future adoption of the euro,
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka
should be provided with an appropriate amount
of capital within a reasonable period of time
so as to comply with the principle of
fi
nancial
independence.
6.2.3 CONFIDENTIALITY
Pursuant to the provisions on confidentiality
in Article 50(2) of the Law, the Governor
In conjunction with Section II(1)(c) of Law No 442/2000 Coll.
8
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may release employees and members of
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs advisory bodies
from the duty of confidentiality âon the
grounds of public interestâ. Under Article 37
of the Statute, professional secrecy is an
ESCB-wide matter. Therefore, the ECB
assumes that such release is without prejudice
to the confidentiality obligations towards the
ECB and the ESCB.
Additionally, the NKU Law does not fully
respect the provisions of Article 37 of the
Statute concerning professional secrecy.
Under Article 4(2) of the NKU Law, matters
under investigation are subject to NKUâs
audit, regardless of the type or degree of
secrecy involved. The auditors are generally
obliged to maintain con
fi
dentiality;
9
however,
the NKUâs President may release such
persons from the duty of con
fi
dentiality
âon the grounds of important State interestâ,
which is not further de
fi
ned. A safeguard
clause should be inserted into the NKU Law
so that any such requirement on the part of
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka employees and Board
members to disclose con
fi
dential information
to the NKU is without prejudice to Article 37
of the Statute.
6.2.4
MONETARY FINANCING AND PRIVILEGED
ACCESS
The ECB notes that in the Czech Republic the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition is currently
provided for in two separate legal provisions,
namely Article 30(2) of the Law and points 1(d)
and 2 of Section II of Law
No 442/2000 Coll.
10
These provisions are not
fully compatible with the Treaty. In particular,
Article 30(2) of the Law, according to which
publicly-owned banks are exempted from the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition contained in the
same article, is not aligned with Article 123(2)
of the Treaty, which exempts publicly owned
credit institutions only âin the context of the
supply of reserves by central banksâ.
The exemption contained in Article 30(2) is
thus wider than that provided for in the
Treaty. Moreover, point 1(d) of Section II of
Law No 442/2000 Coll. does not cover the
prohibition on a direct purchase by
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka of debt instruments from
public sector entities and thus is not fully in line
with Article 123(1) of the Treaty. In the interest
of legal certainty, the ECB recommends
clarifying the relationship between the two
provisions and adapting their wording to ensure
the correct application of the monetary
fi
nancing
provision laid down in Union law.
Pursuant to Article 1(2) of Law No 229/2002
Coll. on the
fi
nancial arbitrator (hereinafter
the âLaw on the
fi
nancial arbitratorâ),
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka is required, to the extent
considered justi
fi
ed and at its own expense, to
provide administrative support to the arbitratorâs
activities, including paying expenses associated
with the activities of persons authorised under
the Law on the
fi
nancial arbitrator. In particular,
the salary and other emoluments of the arbitrator
and his or her deputy are paid at
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
bankaâs expense. Article 4(1) and (5) further
specify that the Arbitrator and his or her deputy
are elected by the Chamber of Deputies and that
their salary and other emoluments are set by the
Chamber of Deputies. Finally, Article 5 of the
Law on the Financial Arbitrator provides that
the Arbitrator performs his duties independently
and impartially and is answerable in respect
of his duties to the Chamber of Deputies.
In view of Article 4(1) and Article 5 of the
Law on the Financial Arbitrator, which clearly
indicate that the Arbitrator is independent and
answerable only to the Chamber of Deputies,
Article 1(2) of the Law on the Financial
Arbitrator is incompatible with the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition under Article 123 of the
Treaty, as it constitutes a form of central bank
fi
nancing of the public sectorâs obligations, and
needs to be adapted.
Article 22(2)(f) of the NKU Law.
9
Article 30(2) provides for the monetary
fi
nancing provision
10
in the national context. Points 1(d) and 2 of Section II of Law
No 442/2000 Coll., which came into effect on the day the
Treaty of Accession of the Czech Republic to the European
Union entered into force, provides for the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition in the Union context.
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W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
6.2.5
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB INTO
THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs legal
integration into the Eurosystem, the Law and
Law No 2/1969 Coll., establishing ministries
and other central administrative bodies of
the Czech Republic (hereinafter the âLaw on
competencesâ) need to be adapted as set out
below.
6.2.5.1 TASKS
Monetary policy
Article 2(2)(a), Article 5(1) and Part V, namely
Articles 23 to 26a of the Law, which provide
for
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs powers in the
fi
eld
of monetary policy and instruments for the
implementation thereof, do not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Articles 28, 29, 32 and 33 of the Law, which
empower
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka to enter into
certain
fi
nancial transactions, also fail to
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Article 41 of the Law, which provides for
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs powers relating to the
collection of statistics, do not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Articles 1(4) and 35(d) and Article 36 of the
Law, which provide for
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs
powers relating to foreign reserve management,
do not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Article 4(1) of the Law on competences,
according to which the Ministry of Finance is the
central administrative body for, inter alia, âforeign
exchange affairs including the Stateâs claims and
obligations towards foreign entitiesâ does not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Payment systems
Article 38 of the Law, which provides for
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs powers relating to the
smooth operation of payment systems, does
not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Article 4(1) of the Law on competences,
according to which the Ministry of Finance is
the central administrative body for, inter alia,
âpayments systemsâ, does not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Issue of banknotes
Article 2(2)(b) of the Law, which empowers
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka to issue banknotes
and coins, and Part IV of the Law, namely
Articles 12 to 22 of the Law, which specify
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs powers in this
fi
eld and
the related implementing instruments, do not
recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs powers
in this
fi
eld.
6.2.5.2 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
Article 48(2) of the Law, which provides
that
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs annual
fi
nancial
statements are audited by auditors selected on
the basis of an agreement between
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
bankaâs Board and the Minister for Finance,
does not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers under Article 27.1 of the Statute.
Financial reporting
Article 48 of the Law does not re
fl
ect
Ä
eskĂĄ
nĂĄrodnĂ bankaâs obligation to comply with the
Eurosystemâs regime for
fi
nancial reporting of
NCB operations, pursuant to Article 26 of the
Statute.
6.2.5.3 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Article 35 of the Law, which authorises
Ä
eskĂĄ
nĂĄrodnĂ banka to conduct exchange rate policy,
does not acknowledge the Councilâs and the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld. Article 4 of the Law
on competences as mentioned in Chapter 2.4.1
should also acknowledge the Councilâs and the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.2.5.4 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Article 40 of the Law, which empowers
Ä
eskĂĄ
nĂĄrodnĂ banka to negotiate payment and other
agreements with foreign banks and international
fi
nancial institutions, does not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
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6.2.5.5 MISCELLANEOUS
Article 37 of the Law, which provides for the
respective legislative powers of
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ
banka and the Ministry of Finance in areas
relating, inter alia, to currency, the circulation
of money, the
fi
nancial market, the adoption of
the euro in the Czech Republic, the payment
system, foreign exchange management, and the
status, competence, organisation and activities of
Ä
eskĂĄ nĂĄrodnĂ banka, does not acknowledge the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Article 46b of the Law, which sets out the
sanctions against third parties which fail to
comply with their statistical obligations, does
not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers to impose sanctions.
6.2.6 CONCLUSIONS
The Law, the NKU Law, the Law on
competences and the
Law on the
fi
nancial
arbitrator
do not comply with all the requirements
for central bank independence, con
fi
dentiality,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. The Czech
Republic is a Member State with a derogation
and must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.3 ESTONIA
6.3.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for Eesti Pank and its operations:
the Estonian Constitution,
â
11
the Law on Eesti Pank (hereinafter the
â
âLawâ).
12
The ECB Convergence Report of May 2008
concluded that there were no further
incompatibilities with regards to independence.
However, the Law on currency
13
and the Law
on security for Estonian kroons
14
do not comply
with all the requirements for legal integration
into the Eurosystem.
6.3.2
MONETARY FINANCING AND PRIVILEGED
ACCESS
Article 16 of the Law prohibits Eesti Pank from
granting loans to the public sector in accordance
with Article 123 of the Treaty. However, Article
16 of the Law is not fully in line with Article
123 of the Treaty for two reasons. First, Article
16 of the Law does not extend the prohibition on
monetary
fi
nancing to direct purchases by Eesti
Pank of debt instruments from public sector
entities. Second, Article 16 of the Law does
not exempt publicly owned credit institutions
from the prohibition in the context of the supply
of reserves by Eesti Pank. The ECB suggests
correcting these imperfections when the Law
is next amended. A draft amendment repealing
Article 16 of the Law has been submitted for
consultation to the ECB.
15
6.3.3
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB INTO
THE EUROSYSTEM
The ECB Convergence Report of May 2008
referred to previous observations relating
to the need to improve the clarity of the
legislative provisions related to integration
into the Eurosystem.
16
To address these
observations and improve clarity, draft
provisions amending the Law were submitted
for consultation to the ECB.
17
Furthermore,
the ECB Convergence Report of May 2008
noted that the Law on currency and the Law
on security for Estonian kroons need to be
adapted to recognise the Councilâs and the
ECBâs powers. The same conclusions are
repeated below. The draft laws for the repeal
of the Law on currency and the Law on
security for Estonian kroons were submitted
Eesti Vabariigi pĂľhiseadus, Riigi Teataja
11
I 2007, 43, 311.
Eesti Panga seadus, Riigi Teataja
12
I 1993, 28, 498.
Eesti Vabariigi rahaseadus, Riigi Teataja
13
1992, 21, 299.
Eesti Vabariigi seadus Eesti krooni tagamise kohta, Riigi Teataja
14
1992, 21, 300.
Opinion CON/2010/20.
15
See ECB Convergence Report May 2008, p. 235.
16
See footnote 15 above.
17
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for consultation to the ECB together with the
package of laws relating to the introduction
of the euro.
18
6.3.3.1 TASKS
Issue of banknotes
The Law on currency and the Law on security
for Estonian kroons do not recognise the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.3.3.2 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
The Law on security for Estonian kroons does
not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
6.3.4 CONCLUSIONS
The Law, the Law on currency and the Law on
security for Estonian kroons do not fully
comply with all the requirements for the
monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Estonia is a
Member State with a derogation and must
therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
The ECB has been consulted on the draft laws
amending the Law, and repealing the Law on
currency and the Law on security for
Estonian kroons. Assuming that the draft law
amending the Law is adopted in time in the
form submitted for consultation to the ECB on
18 February 2010, and that the repeal of the
Law on currency and the Law on security for
Estonian kroons will enter into force in time,
the Law will be compatible with the Treaty and
the Statute and the ECB will consider that the
incompatibilities with the requirements for
Eesti Pankâs legal integration into the
Eurosystem have been removed.
19
6.4
LATVIA
6.4.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for Latvijas Banka and its operations:
the Law on Latvijas Banka (hereinafter the
â
âLawâ).
20
The Law was amended on 8 October 2009.
21
No new legislation has been enacted in relation
to the points identi
fi
ed in the ECB Convergence
Report of May 2008, and those comments
are therefore largely repeated in this yearâs
assessment.
6.4.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to Latvijas Bankaâs independence,
the Law needs to be adapted in the respects set
out below.
6.4.2.1 FUNCTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 3 of the Law provides that Latvijas
Bankaâs main objective is to maintain price
stability in Latvia. In its Convergence
Report of May 2008, the ECB noted that
the objective of price stability should not be
confined to the territory of the Member State
concerned. Therefore, a further adjustment
is needed to ensure full compliance with
Article 127 of the Treaty and Article 2 of
the Statute.
6.4.2.2 INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 13(1) of the Law provides that when
carrying out its tasks in accordance with
the Law and the Law on credit institutions,
Latvijas Banka may not seek or take
instructions from the Government or any
other institution. The ECB understands that
the provision encompasses both national and
foreign institutions in line with Article 130
Opinion CON/2010/16.
18
As mentioned in Chapter 2.2.1, the compatibility of national
19
legislation is considered in the light of any legislative amendments
enacted before 12 March 2010. It is noted, however, that on
22 April 2010 the Estonian Parliament adopted the Law on the
introduction of the euro which removes the incompatibilities
with the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and the requirements for
Eesti Pankâs legal integration into the Eurosystem.
Law on Latvijas Banka,
20
Zi
Ĺ
ot
Ä
js
, 22/23, 4.6.1992.
Law on amendments to the Law on Latvijas Banka (
21
Latvijas
V
Ä
stnesis
, 171 (4157), 28.10.2009). The draft amendments
were submitted to the ECB for consultation: see Opinion
CON/2009/53. The Law was adopted in the form submitted for
consultation.
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of the Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute.
For legal certainty reasons, the next
amendment to the Law should bring this
provision fully into line with Article 130
of the Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute.
6.4.2.3 PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 22 of the Law provides that the Latvian
Parliament may only remove from of
fi
ce the
Governor, Deputy Governor and other Council
members of Latvijas Banka before the end
of their term if at least one of the following
conditions is met:
they have tendered their resignation,
â
they have been found guilty of a deliberate
â
crime,
they are unable to perform their functions
â
for a period exceeding six successive months
due to illness.
Article 22 of the Law includes two legal grounds
for relieving the Governor from of
fi
ce, namely
being found guilty of a âdeliberate crimeâ and
the inability to perform his/her functions for
a period of more than six months, which are
in addition to the two grounds for dismissal
provided for in Article 14.2 of the Statute.
Article 22 needs to be adapted further to fully
comply with Article 14.2 of the Statute.
The Law is silent on the right of national courts
to review a decision to dismiss any member,
other than the Governor, of Latvijas Bankaâs
decision-making bodies who is involved in
the performance of ESCB-related tasks. Even
though this right may be available under general
Latvian law, providing speci
fi
cally for such a
right of review in the Law or another legal act
could increase legal certainty.
Article 28(5) of the Law provides that if
Latvijas Bankaâs Governor is absent, his or
her rights and obligations are exercised by the
Deputy Governor or by the person appointed
by an express order. The ECB notes that only a
person who is subject to the same rules for the
security of tenure and grounds of dismissal as
the Governor should be appointed to deputise
for the Governor. Article 28 of the Law needs
therefore to be adapted to fully comply with
Article 14.2 of the Statute.
Article 31 of the Law provides that restrictions
on members of the Council holding other
positions are speci
fi
ed in the Law on the
prevention of the con
fl
ict of interest in public
of
fi
cialsâ activities.
22
According to Section 7(3)
of this Law members of the Council are
permitted to hold other of
fi
ces if that is foreseen
in other laws or international agreements,
rati
fi
ed by the Parliament, and
Government
regulations and orders. Such public of
fi
cials
may also work as a teacher, scientist,
professional sportsperson and in creative work,
de
fi
ned as journalistic, literary or artistic work
for which royalties or fees are received.
The ECB understands that the abovementioned
provisions do not permit the Government to
authorise the Governor or other members of the
Council of Latvijas Banka to hold other of
fi
ces
if that would create a con
fl
ict of interest.
6.4.2.4 FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
According to Article 18
1
of the Law, within
15 days following the approval of the annual
report by the Council of Latvijas Banka,
Latvijas Banka transfers to the state budget part
of its pro
fi
t calculated by applying the tax rate
for residents under the Law on corporate income
tax and 50% of the pro
fi
t as payment for the
use of state capital. Furthermore, according to
Article 19 of the Law, the pro
fi
ts are transferred
to Latvijas Bankaâs reserve capital after the part
of its pro
fi
ts speci
fi
ed in Article 18
1
of the Law
has been transferred to the State budget.
To safeguard an NCBâs
fi
nancial independence,
pro
fi
ts should be distributed to the state budget
only after any accumulated losses from previous
years have been covered and
fi
nancial provisions
Latvijas V
Ä
stnesis
22
, 69 (2644), 9.5.2002.
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deemed necessary to safeguard the real value of
the NCBâs capital and assets have been created.
The ECB stresses that Latvijas Banka should
be in a position to carry out its functions
independently. Latvijas Banka is still in the
process of building up its reserve capital to a
level corresponding to that of the Eurosystem
NCBs. The ECB understands that the
current pro
fi
ts distribution rule reduces the
fi
nancial means available to Latvijas Banka
for allocation to its reserve capital. It is for a
Member State to ensure that an NCBâs
fi
nancial
independence is not weakened or undermined
and, taking into account the NCBâs opinion,
to ensure its independent functioning. Latvia
should therefore ensure that Latvijas Banka
can continue to increase the level of its reserve
capital and create
fi
nancial provisions deemed
necessary to safeguard the real value of its
capital and assets.
6.4.3
MONETARY FINANCING AND PRIVILEGED
ACCESS
Article 36 of the Law provides that Latvijas
Banka may not issue loans to the Government
or buy government securities on the primary
market. The range of public sector entities
referred to in this paragraph needs to be
signi
fi
cantly extended to be consistent with
Article 123 of the Treaty to also cover local and
other public authorities, other bodies governed
by public law and public undertakings in Latvia
as well as central, regional, local and other public
authorities, other bodies governed by public law
and public undertakings of the other Member
States and Union institutions and bodies.
6.4.4
SINGLE SPELLING OF THE EURO
Latvian legal acts refer to the single currency
as the âeiroâ. This is consistent with Regulation
No 564 of the Cabinet of Ministers on the name
of the single currency in Latvian, adopted on
26 July 2005, which provides that the name of
the single European currency in Latvian must
be the masculine non-declinable form âeiroâ.
On 18 December 2007 the Latvian Cabinet of
Ministers adopted Regulation No 933 amending
Regulation No 564. While the original provision
establishing the name âeiroâ in Latvian for the
single currency remains intact, as a result of
the 2007 amendment, Regulation No 564 now
provides that speci
fi
cally in legal acts the name
of the single currency is the â
euro
â written in
italics.
The ECB understands that the requirement to
write the name of the single currency in italics
has no legal consequences and that failure to
write it in italics would not invalidate the legal act
concerned. Furthermore, the ECB understands
that the concept of a legal act (
ties
ÄŤ
bu akts
)
covers not only legislative provisions but also
other documents establishing legal rights and
obligations: for example, court rulings, contracts
and other legal instruments. From this perspective
the ECB considers that the provision introduced
on 18 December 2007 specifying that the single
currency must be given the name âeuroâ in legal
acts is compatible with Union law.
The ECB notes, however, that a discrepancy
remains between the name of the single currency
in Latvian retained for non-legal acts in the
amended Regulation No 564 (âeiroâ) and the name
of the single currency in Latvian as established
by Union law (âeuroâ). The ECB considers that
this discrepancy does not hinder the overall
functioning of monetary union. It constitutes an
imperfection that has to be corrected. The need
to correct this discrepancy between Latvian and
Union law is without prejudice to the use of
variants of the name of the single currency in
common usage in Latvia, consistent with Latviaâs
cultural and linguistic heritage.
6.4.5
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB
INTO THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to the legal integration of Latvijas
Banka into the Eurosystem, the Law needs to be
adapted in the respects set out below.
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6.4.5.1 TASKS
Monetary policy
Article 26 and Articles 34 to 38 of the Law,
which establish Latvijas Bankaâs powers with
regard to monetary policy, do not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Articles 39 and 40 of the Law, which provide
for Latvijas Bankaâs powers relating to the
collection of statistics, do not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Article 5 of the Law, which provides for Latvijas
Bankaâs powers relating to foreign reserve
management, does not recognise the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld. In addition, Article 5(2)
of the Law, which provides that the Government
maintains foreign currency gold reserves
with Latvijas Banka, is not in line with
Article 31.2 of the Statute in accordance with
which the Government is to maintain only
foreign exchange working balances.
Payment systems
Article 9 of the Law, which provides for
Latvijas Bankaâs powers with regard to the
smooth operation of payment systems, does not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Issue of banknotes
Articles 4 and 34 of the Law, which empower
Latvijas Banka to issue banknotes and coins,
do not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
6.4.5.2 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
Article 43 provides that Latvijas Bankaâs
economic activity and documents should be
audited by the Audit Commission, whose
members are approved by the State Audit Of
fi
ce.
This provision does not recognise the Councilâs
and the ECBâs powers under Article 27.1 of the
Statute. As noted by the ECB,
23
the scope of
control by the State Audit Of
fi
ce or a similar
body should, for legal certainty reasons, be
clearly de
fi
ned by the law and should be without
prejudice to the activities of Latvijas Bankaâs
independent external auditors, as laid down in
Article 27.1 of the Statute.
Financial reporting
Pursuant to Article 15 of the Law, Latvijas
Banka publishes monthly and annual balance
sheets in accordance with central banking
standards. This provision does not re
fl
ect
Latvijas Bankaâs obligation to comply with the
Eurosystemâs regime for
fi
nancial reporting of
operations under Article 26 of the Statute.
6.4.5.3 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
The second sentence of Article 7 of the Law
empowers Latvijas Banka, inter alia, to participate
in the activities of international monetary and
credit organisations. This provision does not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.4.6 CONCLUSIONS
The Law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence
and legal integration into the Eurosystem.
Latvia is a Member State with a derogation
and must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.5 LITHUANIA
6.5.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for Lietuvos bankas and its operations:
the Lithuanian Constitution,
â
24
the Law on Lietuvos bankas (hereinafter the
â
âLawâ).
25
Opinion CON/2009/77.
23
Lietuvos Respublikos Konstitucija
24
, adopted by the referendum of
25 October 1992,
Valstybes zinios
, 30.11.1992, No 33-1014.
Lietuvos banko
ÄŻ
statymas
25
Law No I-678 of 1 December 1994,
Valstybes zinios
, 23.12.1994, No 99-1957.
247
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
No new legislation has been enacted in relation
to the Lithuanian Constitution; therefore there is
no need to re-assess it.
National legislation concerning Lietuvos bankas
and its operations was considered compatible
with the Treaties in the ECB Convergence
Reports of May 2006 and 2008.
The Law on Lietuvos bankas has been amended
three times since the ECB Convergence Report
of May 2008.
26
Draft amendments to some other laws, related to
monetary policy instruments of a Member State
that has not adopted the euro,
27
rules applicable
to
fi
nancial institutions insofar as they materially
in
fl
uence the stability of
fi
nancial institutions
and markets,
28
currency matters
29
and Lietuvos
bankas
30
were also submitted to the ECB for
consultation.
31
6.5.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to Lietuvos bankasâ independence,
the Law and the Law on the State Audit Of
fi
ce
need to be adapted in the respects set out
below.
6.5.2.1 FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 14(4) of the Law on the State Audit
Of
fi
ce
32
expressly empowers the State Audit
Of
fi
ce to conduct the public audit of Lietuvos
bankas, i.e. to audit the performance of the
activities provided for in the Law, insofar as this
does not con
fl
ict with Union legal acts and the
objectives and tasks of the ESCB established
therein, and does not infringe the ESCBâs
con
fi
dentiality and independence regime.
As noted by the ECB,
33
the scope of control by
the State Audit Of
fi
ce should, for legal certainty
reasons, be clearly de
fi
ned by the legislation and
should be without prejudice to the activities of
Lietuvos bankasâ independent external
auditors.
34
According to Article 23(3) of the Law,
35
the
pro
fi
t for a
fi
nancial year is to be allocated as
follows:
fi
rst, to cover losses carried forward
from previous
fi
nancial years; second, to
contribute to the State budget 70% of Lietuvos
bankasâ pro
fi
t for the
fi
nancial year in question,
after making any deduction to cover losses
carried forward from previous
fi
nancial years;
and third, until the authorised capital reaches
LTL 200 million, the remaining pro
fi
t is
allocated in equal parts between the authorised
capital and the reserve capital; thereafter any
residual amount is allocated to the reserve
capital.
The draft amendment to this pro
fi
ts distribution
rule, namely, increasing the NCBâs contribution
to the State budget from 50 to 70%, was
submitted to the ECB for consultation.
36
The ECB stresses that Lietuvos bankas should
be in a position to carry out its functions
independently.
37
Lietuvos bankas is still
On two occasions the draft laws amending the Law were submitted
26
to the ECB for consultation. See Opinions CON/2009/40 and
CON/2009/83. The third amendment was intended solely for
the purposes of transposing Directive 2007/44/EC and was not
therefore the subject of an ECB consultation.
Lietuvos banko valdybos nutarimo âD
Ä
l Lietuvos banko
27
valdybos 2002 m. kovo 14 d. nutarimo Nr. 38 âD
Ä
l kredito
ÄŻ
staig
Ĺł
privalom
Ĺł
j
Ĺł
atsarg
Ĺł
taisykli
Ĺł
patvirtinimoâ pakeitimoâ
projektas
.
Lietuvos Respublikos
fi
nansinio tvarumo
ÄŻ
statymo projektas
28
and
Lietuvos Respublikos Vyriausyb
Ä
s nutarimo âD
Ä
l Valstyb
Ä
s
garantij
Ĺł
bank
Ĺł
stabilumui didinti teikimo taisykli
Ĺł
, Pasitik
Ä
tini
Ĺł
(subordinuot
Ĺł
) paskol
Ĺł
bankams teikimo taisykli
Ĺł
ir Bank
Ĺł
turto
iĹĄpirkimo taisykli
Ĺł
patvirtinimoâ projektas
.
Lietuvos Respublikos lito patikimumo
ÄŻ
statymo 3 straipsnio
29
papildymo
ÄŻ
statymo projektas
.
Lietuvos Respublikos lito patikimumo
ÄŻ
statymo 3 straipsnio
30
papildymo
ÄŻ
statymo projektas
and
Lietuvos Respublikos valstyb
Ä
s
kontrol
Ä
s
ÄŻ
statymo 14 straipsnio pakeitimo ir papildymo
ÄŻ
statymo
projektas
.
See Opinions CON/2008/66, CON/2009/32, CON/2009/61,
31
CON/2009/77 and CON/2009/93.
New Article 14(4) adopted by
32
Lietuvos Respublikos valstyb
Ä
s
kontrol
Ä
s
ÄŻ
statymo 14 straipsnio papildymo ir pakeitimo
ÄŻ
statymas
, Law No XI-497 of 19 November 2009,
Valstybes
zinios
, 5.12.2009, No 144-6349.
Opinion CON/2009/77.
33
For the activities of the NCBâs independent external auditors
34
see, as an example, Article 27.1 of the Statute.
After the amendment made by
35
Lietuvos Respublikos
Lietuvos banko
ÄŻ
statymo 23 straipsnio pakeitimo
ÄŻ
statymas
,
Law No XI-510 of 2 December 2009,
Valstybes zinios
,
12.12.2009, No 147-6553.
Opinion CON/2009/83. The consulting authority took
36
into consideration some of the arguments in the Opinion
CON/2009/83: before
fi
nalising the change of regime for the
allocation of pro
fi
ts to the State, it consulted Lietuvos bankas.
Opinions CON/2009/26, paragraph 3.2, and CON/2009/83.
37
248
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
in the process of building up its reserve
capital to a level corresponding to that of the
Eurosystem NCBs and the ECB understands
that the amendments to the pro
fi
ts distribution
rule reduce the
fi
nancial means available to
Lietuvos bankas for allocation to its reserve
capital. It is for a Member State to ensure
that an NCBâs
fi
nancial independence is not
undermined and, taking into account the
NCBâs opinion, to ensure its independent
functioning. Lithuania should therefore
ensure that Lietuvos bankas can continue to
increase the level of its reserve capital and
create
fi
nancial provisions deemed necessary
to safeguard the real value of its capital and
assets.
The ECB understands that the legal owner of
Lietuvos bankasâ immovable property is the
Lithuanian State and that, as a result, there is
a risk of Lietuvos bankas being able to dispose
of its property only with the approval of
governmental authorities. This legal situation
undermines both the institutional as well
as the
fi
nancial independence of Lietuvos
bankas. From an institutional perspective, state
authorities could instruct Lietuvos bankas on
the assets held by it. Lietuvos bankasâ
fi
nancial
independence would be undermined since it
would no longer be entirely free to decide
on the allocation of its resources and could
be unable to secure suf
fi
cient means for the
performance of its tasks. Therefore, the Law
should explicitly state that Lietuvos bankas
should be the legal owner of Lietuvos bankasâ
immovable property.
The ECB considers that the current legal status
of Lietuvos bankasâ immovable property is
incompatible with the central bank independence
requirement.
6.5.3 CONCLUSIONS
The Law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence.
Lithuania is a Member State with a derogation
and must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.6 HUNGARY
6.6.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and its operations:
Law XX of 1949 on the Hungarian
â
Constitution,
38
Law LVIII of 2001 on the Magyar Nemzeti
â
Bank (hereinafter the âLawâ).
39
Law CIX of 2008,
40
Law LVI of 2009
41
and
Law CXLVIII of 2009
42
have been enacted by
the Hungarian Parliament to amend the Law.
6.6.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to the Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs
independence, the Law needs to be adapted in
the respects set out below.
6.6.2.1 PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
Pursuant to Article 49(12) and (13) of the
Law, an appeal may be brought in the Labour
Court against a decision to recall from of
fi
ce
a member of the Monetary Council, in
accordance with the regulations set forth in
the Labour Code. As regards the Governor of
the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, similar provisions
apply in Article 50(5) and (6). The ECB
understands that although the Law is silent on
the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the
A Magyar KĂśztĂĄrsasĂĄg AlkotmĂĄnya,
38
20.8.1949.
A Magyar Nemzeti BankrĂłl szĂłlĂł tĂśrvĂŠny
39 ,
Magyar KĂśzlĂśny
2001/76 (VII.5.).
A Magyar Nemzeti BankrĂłl szĂłlĂł tĂśrvĂŠny mĂłdosĂtĂĄsrĂłl szĂłlĂł
40
tĂśrvĂŠny, Magyar KĂśzlĂśny
2008/189 (XII.23.) The draft law
was submitted to the ECB for consultation: see Opinion
CON/2008/83.
A kĂśzigazgatĂĄsi hatĂłsĂĄgi eljĂĄrĂĄs ĂŠs szolgĂĄltatĂĄs ĂĄltalĂĄnos
41
szabĂĄlyairĂłl szĂłlĂł 2004. ĂŠvi CXL. tĂśrvĂŠny mĂłdosĂtĂĄsĂĄrĂłl szĂłlĂł
2008. ĂŠvi CXI. tĂśrvĂŠny hatĂĄlybalĂŠpĂŠsĂŠvel ĂŠs a bels
Ĺ
piaci
szolgĂĄltatĂĄsokrĂłl szĂłlĂł 2006/123/EK irĂĄnyelv ĂĄtĂźltetĂŠsĂŠvel
ĂśsszefĂźgg
Ĺ
tĂśrvĂŠnymĂłdosĂtĂĄsokrĂłl szĂłlĂł tĂśrvĂŠny, Magyar
KĂśzlĂśny 2009/88
(VI.26.). The draft law was submitted to the
ECB for consultation: see Opinion CON/2009/44 .
A
42
pĂŠnzĂźgyi kĂśzvetĂt
Ĺ
rendszer felĂźgyeletĂŠnek hatĂŠkonyabbĂĄ
tĂŠtelĂŠhez szĂźksĂŠges egyes tĂśrvĂŠnymĂłdosĂtĂĄsokrĂłl szĂłlĂł tĂśrvĂŠny
,
Magyar KĂśzlĂśny
2009/189 (XII.22.). The draft law was submitted
to the ECB for consultation: see Opinion CON/2010/10.
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
European Union to hear cases with regard to
the dismissal of the Governor, Article 14.2 of
the Statute would apply.
Article 1 of Law XXVII of 2008
43
speci
fi
es the
words of the oath that the members of the
Monetary Council are required to make under
Article 49(7) of the Law. The Magyar Nemzeti
Bankâs Governor acts in a dual capacity as a
member of the Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs Monetary
Council and of the relevant ECB decision-making
bodies. Article 49(7) of the Law needs to be
adapted to re
fl
ect the status and the obligations
and duties of the Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs
Governor as member of the relevant ECB
decision-making bodies. Furthermore, the other
members of the Monetary Council are also
involved in the performance of ESCB-related
tasks; therefore, Article 49(7) of the Law needs
also to be adapted in this regard. This provision of
the Law should not hinder the Governor and the
other members of the Monetary Council from
performing the ESCB-related tasks.
6.6.2.2 FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 46/A(b) of the Law allows the
shareholder to establish the Magyar Nemzeti
Bankâs balance sheet and pro
fi
t and loss
statement. Under Article 46(4) of the Law,
the shareholder is the State. The State, as the
shareholder, is represented by the Minister for
Finance. The powers of a third party to establish
an NCBâs balance sheet and pro
fi
t and loss
statement are incompatible with the principle
of
fi
nancial independence and Article 46/A(b)
should be adapted accordingly.
Under Article 65(1) of the Law, the Minister for
Finance as shareholder could also decide to pay
out a dividend from the pro
fi
t or the accumulated
pro
fi
t reserves, which is incompatible with the
principle of
fi
nancial independence.
6.6.3 MONETARY
FINANCING
AND PRIVILEGED ACCESS
Article 14 of the Law provides that if
circumstances arise which jeopardise the
fi
nancial systemâs stability due to a credit
institutionâs operations, the Magyar Nemzeti
Bank may extend an emergency loan to such a
credit institution, observing the prohibition on
monetary
fi
nancing. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank
may make the extension of such a loan subject
to the performance of actions by the Hungarian
Financial Supervisory Authority or by the
credit institution, on the Financial Supervisory
Authorityâs proposal. The provision was
amended by Law CIX of 2008 with effect from
January 2009, replacing the general reference
to the concept of monetary
fi
nancing with a
reference to Article 16 of the Law, which further
speci
fi
es the scope of the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition under Article 123 of the Treaty
and Council Regulation (EC) No 3603/93 of
13 December 1993 specifying de
fi
nitions for
the application of the prohibitions referred to
in Articles 104 and 104b of the Treaty.
44
In
the ECBâs understanding, Article 14 provides
that the extension of any emergency loan
is granted independently and at the Magyar
Nemzeti Bankâs full discretion, which may
make such extensions conditional if necessary.
However, it may be useful to specify that such
loans are extended against adequate collateral,
thus introducing an additional safeguard which
should minimise the possibility of the Magyar
Nemzeti Bank suffering any loss.
Article 16(1) of the Law lists the range of public
sector entities to which the central bank may not
grant overdraft facilities or other types of credit
facilities. However, the list should be amended
to be consistent with the list of such entities
contained in Article 123 of the Treaty.
Article 16(2) of the Law de
fi
nes in an exhaustive
manner when an economic association is to
be considered to operate under the dominant
Egyes kĂśzjogi tisztsĂŠgvisel
Ĺ
k eskĂźjĂŠr
Ĺ
l ĂŠs fogadalmĂĄrĂłl szĂłlĂł
43
tĂśrvĂŠny
,
Magyar KĂśzlĂśny
2008/89 (VI.18. The wording of the
oath is the following: âI, âŚ.[name of the designated public
of
fi
cer], hereby make an oath to be faithful to my home
country, to the Republic of Hungary and to its people, I will
comply and ensure compliance with the Constitution, together
with other laws, I will keep any secrets disclosed to me, I will
conscientiously ful
fi
l my duties arising from my position as
a ⌠[name of the position] to promote the development of the
Republic of Hungary and the application of the Constitution.â
OJ L 332, 31.12.1993, p. 1.
44
250
ECB
Convergence Report
May 2010
in
fl
uence of the State or one of the other public
sector authorities listed in Article 16(1). Article
16(2) transposes Article 8(1) of Regulation
(EC) No 3603/93 in a not completely accurate
manner, as Article 8(1) gives a non-exhaustive
list of examples of when such dominance by
public authorities may be presumed to exist.
The ECB therefore recommends that
Article 16(2) is slightly amended to fully
re
fl
ect Article 8(1) in this respect.
Article 16(3) of the Law exempts credit
institutions owned by the State, local
governments, any other budgetary organs, Union
institutions or bodies, and central governments,
regional, local or other administrative organs
of other Member States from the general
prohibition on the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
providing credit facilities to the public sector.
The ECB understands that âbudgetary organsâ
are public entities, which are publicly owned,
managed and
fi
nanced by the State. However,
as Article 123(2) of the Treaty only exempts
publicly owned credit institutions âin the
context of the supply of reserves by central
banksâ, for reasons of legal certainty the
wording of Article 16(3) of the Law should
be aligned to that of Article 123 of the Treaty
to avoid giving the impression that publicly
owned credit institutions are understood to be
generally exempt from the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition, and a reference to Article 123
should be inserted.
Finally, Article 16(4) of the Law de
fi
nes the
concept of indirect ownership. However, the
provision seems to be already covered by
Article 16(2) of the Law re
fl
ecting Article 8(1)
of Regulation (EC) No 3603/93 de
fi
ning the term
âpublic undertakingâ by means of the degree of
public sector in
fl
uence on such undertakings.
The interrelation between the two provisions
should be clari
fi
ed.
Article 119(2) and (3) of Law CXII of
1996 on credit institutions gave the Magyar
Nemzeti Bank the power to grant credit to the
National Deposit Insurance Fund. Following
the entry into force of Law LXXXV of 2007,
Article 71(3) of the Law has been amended
to specify that on an exceptional basis, in
emergencies jeopardising the stability of
the
fi
nancial system as a whole and the
free circulation of money, and subject to
the prohibition on monetary
fi
nancing, the
Magyar Nemzeti Bank may grant a loan to the
National Deposit Insurance Fund at the latterâs
request, whereby the maturity of such loans
may not exceed three months. This provision
was further amended by Law CIX of 2008
with effect from 1 January 2009, replacing
the general reference to the prohibition
on monetary
fi
nancing with a reference to
Article 16(1) of the Law which explicitly
refers to Article 123 of the Treaty and
Regulation (EC) No 3603/93. However, it
may be useful to specify that such loans are
extended against adequate collateral, thus
introducing an additional safeguard which
should minimise the possibility of the Magyar
Nemzeti Bank suffering any loss.
6.6.4
SINGLE SPELLING OF THE EURO
The name of the single currency is spelled in
a way which is inconsistent with Union law in
several Hungarian legal acts. Under the Treaties
a single spelling of the word âeuroâ in the
nominative singular case is required in all Union
and national legislative provisions, taking into
account the existence of different alphabets.
The Hungarian legal acts in question should
therefore be amended accordingly.
The ECB expects that the correct spelling of
the word âeuroâ will be applied in the Law and
the euro changeover law, as well as in all other
national legal acts. Only when all national legal
acts use the correct spelling of the word âeuroâ
will Hungary comply with the Treaties.
6.6.5
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB INTO
THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to the Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs legal
integration into the Eurosystem, the Law needs
to be adapted in the respects set out below.
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O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
6.6.5.1 ECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES
Article 3(2) of the Law provides that,
without prejudice to the primary objective
of price stability, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
supports the Governmentâs general economic
policies. This provision is incompatible with
Article 127(1) of the Treaty and Article 2 of
the Statute, as it does not re
fl
ect the secondary
objective of supporting the general economic
policies of the Union.
6.6.5.2 TASKS
Monetary policy
Articles 4 to 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 49 and 60 of
the Law, and Article 32D of the Constitution,
which establish the Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs
powers in the
fi
eld of monetary policy, do not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Article 4(6), Article 28 and Article 60(1) of
the Law, which establish the Magyar Nemzeti
Bankâs powers relating to the collection of
statistics, does not recognise the ECBâs powers
in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Article 4(3) and (4) and Article 61(2) of the
Law, which provide for the Magyar Nemzeti
Bankâs powers in the
fi
eld of foreign reserve
management, do not recognise the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
Payment systems
Article 4(5), Articles 26 and 27 and
Article 60(2) of the Law, which establish the
Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs powers with regard
to the promotion of the smooth operation of
payment systems, do not recognise the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
Issue of banknotes
Article 4(2), Articles 31 to 34 and Article 60
of the Law, which establish the Magyar
Nemzeti Bankâs exclusive right to issue
banknotes and coins, do not recognise the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.6.5.3 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
Article 45(3) of the Law, which provides that
the President of the State Audit Of
fi
ce must be
consulted before the Magyar Nemzeti Bankâs
auditor is elected or his or her dismissal is
proposed, and Article 46A(c) of the Law, which
provides for the shareholderâs power to appoint
and dismiss the auditor, do not recognise
the Councilâs and the ECBâs powers under
Article 27.1 of the Statute.
Financial reporting
Article 46/A(b) of the Law and Law C of 2000,
45
in conjunction with Government Decree
221/2000 (XII.19),
46
do not re
fl
ect the Magyar
Nemzeti Bankâs obligation to comply with the
Eurosystemâs regime for
fi
nancial reporting of
NCB operations, pursuant to Article 26 of the
Statute.
6.6.5.4 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Article 4(4), Articles 11 and 17 of the Law
lay down the Governmentâs and the Magyar
Nemzeti Bankâs respective powers in the area
of exchange rate policy. These provisions do
not acknowledge the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
6.6.5.5 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Article 41(4) of the Law, which provides that, on
authorisation by the Government, the Magyar
Nemzeti Bank may undertake tasks arising at
international
fi
nancial organisations, unless
otherwise provided for by a legislative act, does
not recognise the ECBâs powers as far as issues
under Article 6 of the Statute are concerned.
6.6.5.6 MISCELLANEOUS
Articles 29/C and 29/D of the Law do not
recognise the ECBâs powers to impose sanctions.
A szĂĄmvitelr
Ĺ
l szĂłlĂł tĂśrvĂŠny, Magyar KĂśzlĂśny
45
2000/95 (IX.
21.).
A Magyar Nemzeti Bank ĂŠves beszĂĄmolĂł kĂŠszĂtĂŠsi ĂŠs kĂśnyvvezetĂŠsi
46
kĂśtelezettsĂŠgĂŠnek sajĂĄtossĂĄgairĂłl szĂłlĂł KormĂĄnyrendelet,
Magyar KĂśzlĂśny
2000/125 (XII.19.).
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May 2010
With regard to Article 36 of the Law, which
entitles the Magyar Nemzeti Bank to be consulted
on draft national legislation related to its tasks, it
is noted that consulting the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
does not obviate the need to consult the ECB
under Articles 127(4) and 282(5) of the Treaty.
Article 49(7) of the Law requires the members
of the Monetary Council to make an oath
in accordance with the wording speci
fi
ed in
Article 1 of Law XXVII of 2008. Article 49(7)
of the Law needs to be adapted to comply with
Article 14.3 of the Statute.
47
6.6.6 CONCLUSIONS
The Hungarian Constitution and the Law
do not comply with all the requirements for
central bank independence, the prohibition
on monetary
fi
nancing and legal integration
into the Eurosystem. Hungary is a Member
State with a derogation and must therefore
comply with all adaptation requirements under
Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.7 POLAND
6.7.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for Narodowy Bank Polski and its operations:
the Polish Constitution,
â
48
the Law on Narodowy Bank Polski
â
(hereinafter the âLawâ),
49
the Law on the Bank Guarantee Fund
â
(hereinafter the âLaw on the Bank Guarantee
Fundâ),
50
the Law on banking (hereinafter the
â
âLaw on bankingâ),
51
the Law on settlement
fi
nality in the payment
â
and settlement systems and on the
supervision of such systems.
52
Except for certain amendments to the Law
which,
inter alia
, amended in a complex manner
the framework for the collection of statistics
by Narodowy Bank Polski and established
the Financial Stability Committee,
53
no new
legislation has been enacted in relation to the
points identi
fi
ed in the ECB Convergence Report
of May 2008, and those comments are therefore
largely repeated in this yearâs assessment.
6.7.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
independence, the Polish Constitution, the Law
and the Law on the State Tribunal
54
need to be
adapted in the respects set out below.
6.7.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
The Law does not prohibit Narodowy Bank
Polski and members of its decision-making
bodies from seeking or taking outside
instructions; it also does not expressly prohibit
See paragraph 3.7 of Opinion CON/2008/83.
47
Konstytucja Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej
48
of 2 April 1997,
Dziennik
Ustaw
of 1997, No 78, item 483.
Ustawa o Narodowym Banku Polskim
49
of 29 August 1997.
Consolidated version published in
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2005,
No 1, item 2, with further amendments.
Ustawa o Bankowym Funduszu Gwarancyjnym
50
of
14 December 1994. Consolidated version published in
Dziennik
Ustaw
of 2009, No 84, item 711, with further amendments.
Ustawa Prawo bankowe
51
of 29 August 1997. Consolidated
version published in
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2002, No 72, item 665,
with further amendments.
Ustawa o ostateczno
Ĺ
ci rozrachunku w systemach p
Ĺ
atno
Ĺ
ci
52
i systemach rozrachunku papierĂłw warto
Ĺ
ciowych oraz zasadach
nadzoru nad tymi systemami
of 24 August 2001,
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2001 No 123, item 1351, with further amendments.
The amendments were introduced by: the Law amending the Law
53
on the Bank Guarantee Fund and certain other laws (
Ustawa o
zmianie ustawy o Bankowym Funduszu Gwarancyjnym oraz o
zmianie innych ustaw
of 23 October 2008,
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2008,
No 209, item 1315) (see also footnote 65); the Law on the Financial
Stability Committee (
Ustawa o Komitecie Stabilno
Ĺ
ci Finansowej
of 7 November 2008,
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2008, No 209, item 1317);
the Law amending the Law on toll roads and on the National Road
Fund, and the Law on Narodowy Bank Polski (
Ustawa o zmianie
ustawy o autostradach p
Ĺ
atnych oraz o Krajowym Funduszu
Drogowym oraz ustawy o Narodowym Banku Polskim
of
16 July 2009,
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2009, No 143, item 1164);
the Law amending the Law on Narodowy Bank Polski and the
Foreign Exchange Law (
Ustawa o zmianie ustawy o Narodowym
Banku Polskim oraz ustawy â Prawo dewizowe
of 5 March 2009,
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2009, No 69, item 589).
Ustawa o Trybunale Stanu
54
of 26 March 1982; consolidated
version published in
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2002, No 101, item 925,
with further amendments.
253
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
the Government from seeking to in
fl
uence
members of Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
decision-making bodies in situations where
this may have an impact on Narodowy Bank
Polskiâs ful
fi
lment of its ESCB-related tasks.
In this respect, the Law needs to be adapted
to comply with Article 130 of the Treaty and
Article 7 of the Statute.
Article 11(3) of the Law, which provides that
Narodowy Bank Polskiâs President represents
Polandâs interests within international banking
institutions and, unless the Council of Ministers
decides otherwise, within international
fi
nancial institutions, needs to be adapted to
comply with Article 130 of the Treaty and
Article 7 of the Statute.
Article 23(1)(2) of the Law, which obliges
Narodowy Bank Polskiâs President to forward
draft monetary policy guidelines to the Council
of Ministers and the Minister for Finance, needs
to be adapted to comply with Article 130 of the
Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute.
The Supreme Chamber of Control, a constitutional
body, has wide powers under Article 203(1) of
the Polish Constitution to control the activities
of all public administrative authorities and
Narodowy Bank Polski as regards their legality,
economic prudence, ef
fi
ciency and diligence. The
scope of the control by the Supreme Chamber of
Control should be clearly de
fi
ned and should be
without prejudice to the activities of Narodowy
Bank Polskiâs independent external auditors.
55
Article 203(1) of the Constitution needs to be
adapted to comply with Article 130 of the Treaty
and Article 7 of the Statute.
6.7.2.2 PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 9(5) of the Law regulates the dismissal of
Narodowy Bank Polskiâs President by the Sejm
(lower house of Parliament), if he or she has:
been unable to ful
fi
l his or her duties due to
â
prolonged illness,
been convicted of a criminal offence under a
â
fi
nal court sentence,
submitted an untruthful disclosure
â
declaration, con
fi
rmed by a
fi
nal court
judgment,
56
been prohibited by the State Tribunal from
â
occupying executive positions or holding
posts of particular responsibility in state
bodies.
57
Moreover, under Article 25(3) in conjunction
with Article 3 and Article 1(1)(3) of the Law
on the State Tribunal, Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
President may also be removed from of
fi
ce if he
or she violates the Constitution or a law.
58
The grounds listed above are in addition to the
two grounds for dismissal provided for in Article
14.2 of the Statute. Therefore, Article 9(5) of the
Law and the relevant provisions of the Law on
the State Tribunal need to be adapted to comply
with Article 14.2 of the Statute.
With regard to security of tenure and grounds
for dismissal of other members of Narodowy
Bank Polskiâs decision-making bodies involved
in the performance of ESCB-related tasks
(i.e. the members of the Management Board,
and in particular the First Deputy President, and
the members of the Monetary Policy Council),
Article 13(5) and Article 17(2b), second
sentence, of the Law provide the following
grounds for dismissal:
an illness which permanently prevents them
â
from performing their responsibilities,
For the activities of the NCBâs independent external auditors
55
see, as an example, Article 27.1 of the Statute.
The provision was added with effect from 15 March 2007 by
56
Article 37a of the Law on disclosure of information relating to
documents of state security services from the period 1944-1990
(
Ustawa o ujawnianiu informacji o dokumentach organĂłw
bezpiecze
Ĺ
stwa pa
Ĺ
stwa z lat
1944-1990
oraz tre
Ĺ
ci tych
dokumentĂłw
of 18 October 2006; consolidated version published
in
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2007, No 63, item 425).
The resolution of the Sejm producing an indictment of the
57
President of Narodowy Bank Polski before the State Tribunal
results, by operation of law, in suspension of the President
from of
fi
ce (Article 11(1), second sentence in connection with
Article 1(1)(3) of the Law on the State Tribunal).
The indictment by the Sejm of the President of Narodowy Bank
58
Polski before the State Tribunal results, by operation of law,
in suspension of the President from of
fi
ce, see footnote 57 above.
254
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May 2010
a conviction for a criminal offence under a
â
fi
nal court sentence,
submission of an untruthful disclosure
â
declaration as con
fi
rmed by a
fi
nal court
judgment,
59
non-suspension of membership of a political
â
party or trade union.
The grounds listed above are in addition to
the two grounds for dismissal provided for in
Article 14.2 of the Statute. Article 13(5) of the
Law therefore needs to be adapted to comply
with Article 14.2 of the Statute. Article 14(3)
of the Law, which reaf
fi
rms the possibility of
dismissal of a member of the Monetary Council
of Narodowy Bank Polski for a conviction for
a criminal offence, needs also to be adapted to
comply with Article 14.2 of the Statute.
The President of Narodowy Bank Polski acts in
dual capacity as a member of Narodowy Bank
Polskiâs decision-making bodies and of the
relevant decision-making bodies of the ECB.
Article 9(3) of the Law, which speci
fi
es the
wording of the oath sworn by Narodowy Bank
Polskiâs President, needs to be adapted to re
fl
ect
the status and the obligations and duties of the
President of Narodowy Bank Polski as member of
the relevant decision-making bodies of the ECB.
The Law is silent on the right of national
courts to review a decision to dismiss any
member, other than the President, of the NCBâs
decision-making bodies who is involved in
the performance of ESCB-related tasks. Even
though this right may be available under general
Polish law, providing speci
fi
cally for such
a right of review could increase legal certainty.
6.7.3 CONFIDENTIALITY
Article 23(7) of the Law speci
fi
es instances in
which data collected from individual
fi
nancial
institutions, as well as statistical surveys, studies
and assessments enabling identi
fi
cation of
individual entities, are subject to disclosure by
Narodowy Bank Polski to external parties.
One such instance covers disclosure to unspeci
fi
ed
recipients, under âseparate applicable
provisionsâ.
60
Such disclosure may potentially
affect data protected under the ESCBâs
con
fi
dentiality regime and therefore the Law
should be adapted to fully comply with
Article 37 of the Statute.
61
6.7.4
MONETARY FINANCING AND PRIVILEGED
ACCESS
Article 42(1) in conjunction with Article 3(2)(5)
of the Law provides for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
powers to grant re
fi
nancing credit to banks
satisfying speci
fi
ed conditions.
62
In addition,
Article 42(3) of the Law allows Narodowy Bank
Polski to grant re
fi
nancing credit for the purpose
of implementing bank rehabilitation proceedings,
which are initiated in the event of a bank suffering
a net loss, being threatened with such a loss or
insolvency.
63
Granting of re
fi
nancing credit is in
all cases subject to the general rules of the Law
on banking, with the modi
fi
cations resulting from
the Law.
64
Safeguards currently contained in such
rules aiming at ensuring timely repayment of the
credit do not fully exclude an interpretation that
would allow an extension of re
fi
nancing credit
to a bank undergoing rehabilitation proceedings
which then becomes insolvent.
65
More explicit
safeguards are needed to avoid incompatibility
with the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition under
Article 123 of the Treaty. Article 42 of the Law
should be adapted accordingly.
See footnote 56 above.
59
Article 23(7)(3) of the Law.
60
See Opinion CON/2008/53.
61
Narodowy Bank Polskiâs decision whether to grant re
fi
nancing
62
credit is based on its assessment of the bankâs ability to repay
the principal amount and the interest on time (Article 42(2)
of the Law).
Article 142(1) of the Law on banking.
63
Article 42(7) of the Law.
64
Under the Law on banking which applies to the provision of
65
re
fi
nancing credit by Narodowy Bank Polski, a commercial
bank may extend credit to an uncreditworthy borrower, provided
that: (i) quali
fi
ed security is established; and (ii) a recovery
programme is instituted, which the crediting bank considers
will ensure the borrowerâs creditworthiness during a speci
fi
ed
period (Article 70(2) of the Law on banking). Furthermore,
Narodowy Bank Polski may demand early repayment of any
re
fi
nancing credit if the
fi
nancial situation of the credited bank
has worsened to the extent of putting the timely repayment at risk
(Article 42(6) of the Law).
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
The legal framework under which Narodowy
Bank Polski may grant credit to the National
Deposit Guarantee Fund has been amended
66
broadly in line with the conclusions of the ECB
Convergence Report of May 2008 and the
relevant ECB opinions.
67
In particular,
Article 13(3b) of the Law on the Bank Guarantee
Fund, which provided for annual payments on
behalf of Narodowy Bank Polski to the National
Deposit Guarantee Fund, has been repealed.
Moreover, Article 43 of the Law and
Articles 15(6) and 34(3) of the Law on the Bank
Guarantee Fund have been amended to properly
re
fl
ect the need for such credit to be short-term
and to be extended at Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
discretion, to enable the Bank Guarantee Fund
to repay guaranteed deposits, only insofar as the
Fundâs own resources are insuf
fi
cient and only
where the stability of the banking system is
threatened. At the same time, the ECB reiterates
that the requirement for central bank credit
extended to a national deposit insurance scheme
to address urgent situations is not re
fl
ected.
Therefore, Article 34(3) of the Law on the Bank
Guarantee Fund should be adapted.
Article 220(2) of the Polish Constitution provides
that âthe budget shall not provide for covering
a budget de
fi
cit by way of contracting credit
obligations to the Stateâs central bankâ. While
this provision prohibits the State from
fi
nancing
its budgetary de
fi
cit via Narodowy Bank Polski,
the ECB understands that it does not constitute
an implementation of Article 123 of the Treaty
prohibiting monetary
fi
nancing, and its aim and
function are therefore not identical to those of the
said Treaty prohibition. Article 123 of the Treaty,
supplemented by Regulation (EC) No 3603/93, is
directly applicable, so in general, it is unnecessary
to transpose it into national legislation.
6.7.5
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB
INTO THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to Narodowy Bank Polskiâs legal
integration into the Eurosystem, the Polish
Constitution and the Law need to be adapted
in the respects set out below.
6.7.5.1 ECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES
Article 3(1) of the Law provides that Narodowy
Bank Polskiâs primary objective is to maintain
price stability, while supporting the economic
policies of the Government, insofar as this does
not constrain the pursuit of its primary objective.
This provision is incompatible with Article 127(1)
of the Treaty and Article 2 of the Statute, as it does
not re
fl
ect the secondary objective of supporting
the general economic policies of the Union.
6.7.5.2 TASKS
Monetary policy
Article 227(1) and (5) of the Constitution and
Article 3(2)(5), Articles 12, 23 and 38 to 50a
and 53 of the Law, which provide for Narodowy
Bank Polskiâs powers with regard to monetary
policy, do not recognise the ECBâs powers
in this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Article 3(2)(7) and Article 23 of the Law, which
provides for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs powers
relating to the collection of statistics, do not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Article 3(2)(2) and Article 52 of the Law, which
provide for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs powers in
the
fi
eld of foreign exchange management, do not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Payment systems
Article 3(2)(1) of the Law, which provides for
Narodowy Bank Polskiâs powers in organising
monetary settlements, does not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
The amendments were introduced by the Law amending the Law
66
on the Bank Guarantee Fund and certain other laws (
Ustawa o
zmianie ustawy o Bankowym Funduszu Gwarancyjnym oraz
o zmianie innych ustaw
of 23 October 2008,
Dziennik Ustaw
of 2008, No 209, item 1315).
The ECB has been consulted on draft legislative provisions
67
amending the Law and the Law on the Bank Guarantee Fund
to eliminate the incompatibility with the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition of the rules under which credit may be granted
by Narodowy Bank Polski to the Bank Guarantee Fund
(see Opinions CON/2007/26, CON/2008/5 and CON/2008/32).
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Issue of banknotes
Article 227(1) of the Constitution and Article 4
and Articles 31 to 37 of the Law, which provide
for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs exclusive powers to
issue and withdraw banknotes and coins having
the status of legal tender, do not recognise the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.7.5.3 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
Article 69(1) of the Law, which provides for
the auditing of Narodowy Bank Polski, does
not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers under Article 27.1 of the Statute.
The powers of the Supreme Chamber of
Control to control the activities of Narodowy
Bank Polski should be clearly de
fi
ned by
legislation and should be without prejudice
to the activities of Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
independent external auditors, as laid down
in Article 27.1 of the Statute.
6.7.5.4 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Articles 3(2)(3) and 17(4)(2) and Article 24 of the
Law, which provide for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs
power to implement the exchange rate policy
set in agreement with the Council of Ministers,
do not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
6.7.5.5 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Articles 5(1) and 11(3) of the Law, which
provide for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs right to
participate in international
fi
nancial and banking
institutions, do not recognise the ECBâs powers
in this
fi
eld.
6.7.5.6 MISCELLANEOUS
Article 9(3) of the Law, which speci
fi
es the
wording of the oath sworn by Narodowy Bank
Polskiâs President, needs to be adapted to
comply with Article 14.3 of the Statute.
With regard to Article 21(4) of the Law, which
provides for Narodowy Bank Polskiâs rights
to present its opinion on draft legislation
concerning the activity of banks and having
signi
fi
cance to the banking system, it is noted
that consulting Narodowy Bank Polski does
not obviate the need to consult the ECB under
Articles 127(4) and 282(5) of the Treaty.
6.7.6 CONCLUSIONS
The Polish Constitution, the Law, the Law on
the State Tribunal and the Law on the Bank
Guarantee Fund do not comply with all the
requirements of central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Poland
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.8 ROMANIA
6.8.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal
basis for Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României and its
operations:
Law No 312 on the Statute of Banca
â
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României
68
(hereinafter the
âLawâ).
69
6.8.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a Românieiâs
independence, the Law and other legislation
needs to be adapted in the respects set out
below.
6.8.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 3(1) of the Law provides that, when
carrying out their tasks, Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României and the members of its decision-
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României has made a statement of intent in
68
relation to a draft law amending the Law, which is currently
being prepared to ensure compatibility with the Treaty and
the Statute. Since Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României has no powers
to initiate legislation, the draft law will have to go through the
legislative process at the Romanian Governmentâs initiative.
The ECB will have to be consulted on this draft law under
Articles 127(4) and 282(5) of the Treaty.
Monitorul O
fi
cial al României
69
, Part One, No 582, 30.6.2004.
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O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
making bodies may not seek or take instructions
from public authorities or from any other
institution or authority. The ECB understands
that the provision encompasses both national
and foreign institutions in line with Article 130
of the Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute.
For legal certainty reasons, the next amendment
to the Law should bring this provision fully into
line with Article 130 of the Treaty and Article 7
of the Statute.
6.8.2.2 PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 33(9) of the Law provides that an
appeal may be brought to the High Court of
Cassation and Justice against a decision to recall
from of
fi
ce a member of the Board of Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României within 15 days of its
publication in
Monitorul O
fi
cial al României.
The Law is silent on the jurisdiction of the Court
of Justice of the European Union to hear cases
with regard to the dismissal of the Governor.
The ECB understands that in spite of this silence,
Article 14.2 of the Statute would apply.
Article 33(7) of the Law provides that no
member of the Board of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României may be recalled from of
fi
ce for other
reasons or following a procedure other than
those provided for in Article 33(6) of the Law.
The Law on the establishment, organisation and
functioning of the National Agency for
Integrity
70
and the Law on certain measures for
transparency in the exercise of public dignitaries,
public functions and business relationships and
for the prevention and sanctioning of
corruption
71
de
fi
ne the con
fl
icts of interest and
incompatibilities applicable to the Governor and
the other members of the Board of Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României and require them to report
on their wealth; the ECB understands that the
sanctions provided for in these Laws for the
breach of such obligations do not constitute new
grounds for dismissal of the Governor or other
members of the Board of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României in addition to those contained in
Article 33 of the Law. For legal certainty reasons
and in line with Article 33 of the Law,
a clari
fi
cation to this end in the abovementioned
Laws would be welcome.
6.8.2.3 FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 43 of the Law provides that Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României must transfer to the State
budget an 80% share of the net revenues left
after deducting expenses relating to the
fi
nancial
year, including provisions for credit risk, and any
losses relating to previous
fi
nancial years that
remain uncovered. As noted in Chapter 6.8.4,
this arrangement may in certain circumstances
amount to an intra-year credit, which in turn
may undermine the
fi
nancial independence of
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României.
A Member State may not put its NCB in a
position where it has insuf
fi
cient
fi
nancial
resources to carry out its ESCB or Eurosystem-
related tasks, and also its own national tasks,
such as
fi
nancing its administration and own
operations.
Article 43(3) of the Law also provides that Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României sets up provisions for
credit risk in accordance with its rules, having
regard to the advisory opinion of the Ministry
of Public Finance. The ECB notes that NCBs
must be free to independently create
fi
nancial
provisions to safeguard the real value of their
capital and assets.
Article 43 of the Law should therefore be
adapted, in addition to taking into account the
issues highlighted in Chapter 8.4, to ensure that
such arrangement does not undermine the ability
of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României to carry out its
tasks in an independent manner.
Pursuant to Articles 21 and 23 of the Law
concerning the organisation and functioning of
the Court of Auditors
72
(hereinafter the âLaw
on the Court of Auditorsâ), the Court of
Auditors is empowered to control the
management and use of the public sectorâs
fi
nancial resources, including Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
Law No 144/2007,
70
Monitorul O
fi
cial al României
, Part One,
No 535, 3.8.2009.
Law No 161/2003,
71
Monitorul O
fi
cial al României
, Part One,
No 279, 21.4.2003.
Law No 94/1992, Monitorul O
fi
cial al României, Part One,
72
No 282, 29.4.2009.
258
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a Românieiâs
fi
nancial resources, and to audit
management of the funds of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României. The scope of audit by the Court of
Auditors should, for legal certainty reasons, be
clearly de
fi
ned by the legislation and should be
without prejudice to the activities of
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a Românieiâs independent
external auditors.
73
6.8.3 CONFIDENTIALITY
Pursuant to Article 52(2) of the Law, the
Governor may release con
fi
dential information
on the four grounds listed under Article 52(2)
of the Law. Under Article 37 of the Statute,
professional secrecy is an ESCB-wide matter.
Therefore, the ECB assumes that such release
is without prejudice to the con
fi
dentiality
obligations towards the ECB and the ESCB.
6.8.4 MONETARY
FINANCING
AND PRIVILEGED ACCESS
Articles 6(1) and 29(1) of the Law expressly
prohibit direct purchase on the primary
market by Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României of
debt instruments issued by the State, central
and local public authorities, autonomous
public service undertakings, national societies,
national companies and other majority
State-owned companies. Such prohibition has
been extended by Article 6(2) to other bodies
governed by public law and public undertakings
in Member States. Furthermore, under
Article 7(2) of the Law, Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României is prohibited from granting overdraft
facilities or any other type of credit facility to
the State, central and local public authorities,
autonomous public service undertakings
,
national societies, national companies and
other majority State-owned companies.
Article 7(4) extends this prohibition to other
bodies governed by public law and public
undertakings in Member States. The range
of public sector entities referred to in these
provisions needs to be extended to be consistent
with and fully mirror Article 123 of the Treaty
and aligned with the de
fi
nitions contained in
Regulation (EC) No 3603/93.
Pursuant to Article 7(3) of the Law, majority
State-owned credit institutions are exempted
from the prohibition on granting overdraft
facilities and any other type of credit facility in
Article 7(2), to bene
fi
t from Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României loans in the same way as any other
credit institution that would be eligible under
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a Românieiâs regulations.
The wording of Article 7(3) of the Law should
be aligned with the wording of Article 123(2) of
the Treaty, which only exempts publicly owned
credit institutions âin the context of the supply
of reserves by central banksâ.
Article 26 of the Law provides that, to carry
out its task of ensuring
fi
nancial stability, in
exceptional cases and only on a case-by-case
basis, Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României may grant
loans to credit institutions which are unsecured
or secured by assets other than assets eligible to
collateralise the monetary policy operations of
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României. Article 26 does
not contain suf
fi
cient safeguards to prevent such
lending from potentially breaching the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition contained in Article 123
of the Treaty, especially given the risk that such
lending could result in the provision of solvency
support to a credit institution experiencing
fi
nancial dif
fi
culties, and should be adapted
accordingly.
Article 43 of the Law provides that Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României must transfer to the State
budget an 80% share of the net revenues left
after deducting expenses relating to the
fi
nancial
year, including provisions for credit risk, and
loss related to the previous
fi
nancial years that
remained uncovered. The 80% of the net
revenues is transferred monthly before the
25
th
day of the following month, based on a
special statement. The adjustments relating to
the
fi
nancial year are performed by the deadline
for submission of the annual balance sheet,
based on a rectifying special statement.
This provision is constructed in a way which
does not rule out the possibility of an intra-year
For the activities of the NCBâs independent external auditors
73
see, as an example, Article 27.1 of the Statute.
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
anticipated pro
fi
t distribution in circumstances
where Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României accumulates
pro
fi
ts during the
fi
rst half of the year but suffers
consecutive losses during the second half of the
year. Although the State is under an obligation
to make adjustments after the closure of the
fi
nancial year and would therefore have to return
any excessive distributions to Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României, this would only happen after the
deadline for submission of the annual balance
sheet and may therefore be viewed as amounting
to an intra-year credit to the State. Article 43
should be adapted to ensure that such an
intra-year credit is not possible to rule out the
possibility of breaching the monetary
fi
nancing
prohibition in Article 123 of the Treaty.
The Emergency Ordinance 2008 on the statutory
audit of the annual
fi
nancial statements and
consolidated annual
fi
nancial statements
74
(hereinafter the â2008 Ordinanceâ) establishes
rules on statutory auditors and audit entities and
organises a system of public supervision of
statutory audits. With this aim, the 2008
Ordinance establishes the Council for the Public
Supervision of Statutory Audits (Consiliul
pentru Supravegherea Public
Ä
a Activit
ÄĹŁ
ii de
Audit Statutar, hereinafter the âCouncilâ), which
is a public autonomous institution, with legal
personality, established for the purpose of
carrying out the public supervision of statutory
audits, according to the principles speci
fi
ed in
Directive 2006/43/EC.
75, 76
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României contributes with funds and human
resources to the functioning of the Council as
follows: (i) the Governor or a person representing
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României appointed by the
Governor is a member of its decision-making
body,
77
and rotates as its chair;
78
(ii) Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României contributes staff in the
establishment and functioning of the Council;
79
and (iii) Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României contributes
a
fi
xed percentage to the Councilâs total budget.
The provision of resources by an NCB to a
supervisory authority does not give rise to
monetary
fi
nancing concerns insofar as the NCB
will be
fi
nancing the performance of a legitimate
fi
nancial supervisory task under national law as
part of its mandate, or as long as the NCB can
contribute to and have in
fl
uence on the
decision-making of the supervisory authorities.
However, in the case at hand, the involvement
of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României in the
supervision of the statutory audit of consolidated
and annual
fi
nancial statements does not seem
linked to the
fi
nancial stability of the
fi
nancial
sector. For this reason, the Ordinance should be
made compliant with Article 123 of the Treaty
by (i) restricting Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a Românieiâs
involvement and
fi
nancial contributions to the
supervision of the statutory audit of the annual
accounts of credit and
fi
nancial institutions only;
(ii) ensuring that the Romanian state reimburses
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României fully for any
expenses it incurs due to its role under the 2008
and 2009 Ordinances; or (iii) that any
contributions to the Councilâs total budget
beyond the
fi
nancial sector are made by the
State.
6.8.5
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB
INTO THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a Românieiâs
legal integration into the Eurosystem, the Law
needs to be adapted in the respects set out below.
6.8.5.1 ECONOMIC POLICY OBJECTIVES
Article 2(3) of the Law provides that, without
prejudice to the primary objective of price
stability, Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României
Emergency Ordinance No 90 of 24 June 2008 on the statutory
74
audit of the annual
fi
nancial statements and consolidated annual
fi
nancial statements, published in
Monitorul O
fi
cial al României
No 481 of 30 June 2008.
Directive 2006/43/EC of the European Parliament and of the
75
Council of 17 May 2006 on statutory audits of annual accounts and
consolidated accounts, amending Council Directives 78/660/EEC
and 83/349/EEC and repealing Council Directive 84/253/EEC,
OJ L 157, 9.6.2006, p.87.
Until the end of 2008, it functioned under the responsibility of
76
the Ministry of Economy and Finance, from 1 January 2009
under the Prime-Ministerâs Chancellery, and from 14 July 2009,
with the entry into force of the Emergency Ordinance 2009
(Emergency Ordinance No 78 of 29 June 2009 on the amendment
and supplementation of the Emergency Ordinance of 24 June
2008 on the statutory audit of the annual
fi
nancial statements and
consolidated annual
fi
nancial statements, published in
Monitorul
O
fi
cial al României
No 442 of 29 June 2009 (hereinafter the
â2009 Ordinanceâ), the competence was re-allocated to the
Ministry of Public Finances.
The term of of
fi
ce is three years and can be renewed twice.
77
Article 68 of the 2008 Ordinance.
78
Articles 83 and 71 of the 2008 Ordinance.
79
260
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May 2010
must support the Stateâs general economic
policy. This provision is incompatible with
Article 127(1) of the Treaty, as it does not
re
fl
ect the secondary objective of supporting the
general economic policies of the Union.
6.8.5.2 TASKS
Monetary policy
Article 2(2)(a), Article 5, Articles 6(3) and 7(1),
Articles 8, 19 and 20 and Article 33(1)(a) of the
Law, which provide for the powers of Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României in the
fi
eld of monetary
policy and instruments for the implementation
thereof, do not recognise the ECBâs powers in
this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Article 49 of the Law, which provides for the
powers of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României relating
to the collection of statistics, does not recognise
the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Articles 2(2)(e) and 9(2)(c) and Articles 30 and
31 of the Law, which provide for the powers of
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României relating to foreign
reserve management, do not recognise the
ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Payment systems
Article 2(2)(b), Article 22 and Article 33(1)(b)
of the Law, which provide for the role of Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României in relation to the smooth
operation of payment systems, do not recognise
the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Issue of banknotes
Article 2(2)(c) and Articles 12 to 18 of the
Law, which provide for Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
Românieiâs role in issuing banknotes and coins,
do not recognise the Councilâs and the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
6.8.5.3 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
Article 36(1) of the Law, which provides
that the annual
fi
nancial statements of Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României are audited by
fi
nancial
auditors that are legal entities authorised by
the Financial Auditors Chamber in Romania
and selected by the Board of Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a
României through a tender procedure, does not
recognise the ECBâs and the Councilâs powers
under Article 27.1 of the Statute.
Financial reporting
Article 37(3) of the Law, which provides that
model annual
fi
nancial statements are to be
drawn up by Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României,
having regard to the advisory opinion of the
Ministry of Public Finance, and Article 40 of
the Law, which provides that Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României adopts its own regulation on
organising and conducting its accounting, in
compliance with the legislation in force and
having regard to the advisory opinion of the
Ministry of Public Finance, and that Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României registers its economic
and
fi
nancial operations in compliance with its
own chart of accounts, also having regard to the
advisory opinion of the Ministry of Public Finance,
do not re
fl
ect Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a Românieiâs
obligation to comply with the Eurosystemâs
regime for
fi
nancial reporting of NCB operations,
pursuant to Article 26 of the Statute.
6.8.5.4 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Article 2(2)(a) and (d), Article 9 and
Article 33(1)(a) of the Law, which empower
Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României to conduct
exchange rate policy, do not acknowledge the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Articles 10 and 11 of the Law, which allow Banca
Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României to draw up regulations
on monitoring and controlling foreign currency
transactions in Romania and to authorise foreign
currency capital operations, transactions on
foreign currency markets and other speci
fi
c
operations, do not acknowledge the Councilâs
and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.8.6 MISCELLANEOUS
With regard to Article 3(2) of the Law,
which entitles Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României
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O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
to be consulted on draft national legislation,
consulting Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României does
not obviate the need to consult the ECB under
Articles 127(4) and 282(5) of the Treaty.
Article 57 of the Law does not recognise the
ECBâs powers to impose sanctions.
Article 4(5) of the Law entitles Banca Na
ĹŁ
ional
Ä
a României to conclude short-term credit
arrangements and to perform other
fi
nancial and
banking operations with other entities, including
central banks, and provides that such arrangements
are possible only if the credit is repaid within
one year. The ECB notes that such a limitation is
not foreseen in Article 23 of the Statute.
6.8.7 CONCLUSIONS
The Law does not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Romania
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the Treaty.
6.9 SWEDEN
6.9.1
COMPATIBILITY OF NATIONAL
LEGISLATION
The following legislation forms the legal basis
for Sveriges Riksbank and its operations:
the Instrument of Government,
â
80
which
forms part of the Swedish Constitution,
the Law on Sveriges Riksbank (hereinafter
â
the âLawâ),
81
the Law on exchange rate policy.
â
82
There have been no major changes to the Law
in relation to the points identi
fi
ed in the ECB
Convergence Report of May 2008, and those
comments are therefore largely repeated in this
yearâs assessment.
6.9.2
INDEPENDENCE OF THE NCB
With regard to Sveriges Riksbankâs
independence, the Law needs to be adapted in
the respects set out below.
6.9.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE
Article 2 of Chapter 3 of the Law, and Article 13
of Chapter 9 of the Instrument of Government,
which prohibit the seeking or taking of
instructions, do not cover all ESCB-related
tasks, as required by Article 130 of the Treaty.
Although the explanatory memorandum to the
Law extends the coverage to all ESCB-related
tasks, it would be bene
fi
cial if this issue was
addressed when the Law is next amended.
Article 3 of Chapter 6 of the Law, which
establishes the right of the minister appointed by
the Swedish Government to be informed prior
to Sveriges Riksbank making a monetary policy
decision of major importance, could potentially
breach the prohibition on giving instructions
to the NCBs pursuant to Article 130 of the
Treaty and Article 7 of the Statute. Article 3 of
Chapter 6 of the Law is therefore incompatible
with central bank independence and should be
adapted accordingly.
6.9.2.2 FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE
In accordance with Article 3 of Chapter 10 of the
Law, the General Council of Sveriges Riksbank
submits proposals to the Swedish Parliament
and the Swedish National Audit Of
fi
ce on
the allocation of Sveriges Riksbankâs pro
fi
t.
Pursuant to Article 4 of Chapter 10 of the Law,
the Swedish Parliament then determines the
allocation of Sveriges Riksbankâs pro
fi
t. These
provisions are supplemented by non-statutory
guidelines on pro
fi
t distribution, which state
that Sveriges Riksbank should pay 80% of its
pro
fi
t to the Swedish State, after adjustment
for exchange rate and gold valuation effects
and based on a
fi
ve-year average, with the
remaining 20% used to increase its own capital.
However, these guidelines are not legally binding
SFS 1974:152.
80
SFS 1988:1385.
81
SFS 1998:1404.
82
262
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and there is no statutory provision limiting the
amount of pro
fi
t that may be paid out.
The present arrangements on pro
fi
t distribution
are under review. However, as they currently
stand, they are incompatible with the
requirement of central bank independence in
Article 130 of the Treaty and Article 7 of the
Statute. To safeguard Sveriges Riksbankâs
fi
nancial independence, statutory provisions
should be adopted containing clear provisions
concerning the limitations applicable to the
Swedish Parliamentâs decisions on Sveriges
Riksbankâs pro
fi
t allocation.
6.9.3
MONETARY FINANCING PROHIBITION
Article 1(3) of Chapter 8 of the Law provides
that Sveriges Riksbank may not extend credit
or purchase debt instruments directly from the
State, another public body or a Union institution.
Although the explanatory memorandum to the
Law, which according to Swedish legal tradition
will be closely followed by Swedish courts
when interpreting national legislation, states that
the coverage is extended to Union bodies and
the public sector including public undertakings
of other Member States, it would be bene
fi
cial
if this issue could be addressed when the Law
is next amended, to bring it fully in line with
Article 123 of the Treaty.
In addition, Article 1(4) of Chapter 8 of the
Law provides that âsubject to other provisions
in this Law, the Riksbank may also grant credit
to and purchase debt instruments from
fi
nancial
institutions owned by the State or another
public bodyâ. The wording of Article 1(4) of
Chapter 8 of the Law should be aligned with
the wording of Article 123(2) of the Treaty,
which only exempts publicly owned credit
institutions from the prohibition on monetary
fi
nancing in respect of the supply of reserves by
central banks; the central bank may not supply
reserves to other public
fi
nancial institutions.
In the same vein, the range of public sector
entities would need to be made consistent
with Article 123(2) of the Treaty, and the
ECB suggests, for reasons of legal certainty,
inserting a reference to Article 123 of the
Treaty in Article 1 of Chapter 8 of the Law.
6.9.4
LEGAL INTEGRATION OF THE NCB
INTO THE EUROSYSTEM
With regard to Sveriges Riksbankâs legal
integration into the Eurosystem, the Law and the
Constitution need to be adapted in the respects
set out below.
6.9.4.1 TASKS
Article 1 of Chapter 1 of the Law, which provides
that Sveriges Riksbank may only conduct, or
participate in, such activities for which it has
been authorised by Swedish law, is incompatible
with the provisions of the Treaty and the Statute
as it does not provide for Sveriges Riksbankâs
legal integration into the Eurosystem.
Monetary policy
Article 13 of Chapter 9 of the Instrument of
Government and Article 2 of Chapter 1 of the
Law, which establish Sveriges Riksbankâs
powers in the
fi
eld of monetary policy, do not
recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Articles 2, 5 and 6 of Chapter 6 of the Law,
which provide for Sveriges Riksbankâs powers
in the
fi
eld of monetary policy, do not recognise
the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Article 6 of Chapter 6 and Articles 1 and 2a
of Chapter 11 of the Law, concerning the
imposition of minimum reserves on
fi
nancial
institutions and the payment of a special fee to
the Swedish State in the event of a breach of this
requirement, do not recognise the ECBâs powers
in this
fi
eld.
Collection of statistics
Article 4(2) and Article 9 of Chapter 6 of the
Law, which establish Sveriges Riksbankâs
powers relating to the collection of statistics, do
not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Official foreign reserve management
Chapter 7 of the Law, and Article 14 of
Chapter 8 of the Instrument of Government,
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6 E X A M I N A T I O N
O F C O M P A T I B I L I T Y
O F N A T I O N A L
L E G I S L A T I O N
W I T H T H E T R E A T I E S
which provide for Sveriges Riksbankâs powers
in the
fi
eld of foreign reserve management, do
not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
Payment systems
Article 2 of Chapter 1 and Article 7 of Chapter 6
of the Law, which establish Sveriges Riksbankâs
powers with regard to the smooth operation of
payment systems, do not recognise the ECBâs
powers in this
fi
eld.
Issue of banknotes
Article 14 of Chapter 9 of the Instrument of
Government and Chapter 5 of the Law, which
lay down Sveriges Riksbankâs exclusive right to
issue banknotes and coins, do not recognise the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.9.4.2 FINANCIAL PROVISIONS
Appointment of independent auditors
The Law does not recognise the Councilâs and
the ECBâs powers under Article 27.1 of the
Statute.
6.9.4.3 EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Article 12 of Chapter 9 of the Instrument of
Government and Chapter 7 of the Law, together
with the Law on exchange rate policy, lay down
the powers of the Swedish Government and
Sveriges Riksbank in the area of exchange rate
policy. These provisions do not recognise the
Councilâs and the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.9.4.4 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Pursuant to Article 6 of Chapter 7 in the Law,
Sveriges Riksbank may serve as a liaison body in
relation to international
fi
nancial institutions of
which Sweden is a member. This provision does
not recognise the ECBâs powers in this
fi
eld.
6.9.5 CONCLUSIONS
The Law, the Constitution and the Law on
exchange rate policy do not comply with all the
requirements for central bank independence,
the monetary
fi
nancing prohibition and legal
integration into the Eurosystem. Sweden
is a Member State with a derogation and
must therefore comply with all adaptation
requirements under Article 131 of the
Treaty. The ECB notes that the Treaty has
obliged Sweden to adopt national legislation
for integration into the Eurosystem since
1 June 1998. Over the years no legislative action
has been taken by the Swedish authorities to
remedy the incompatibilities described in this
and previous reports.
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G L O S S A R Y
Acquis communautaire:
the body of Union legislation, including its interpretation by the Court
of Justice of the European Union, by which all Member States are bound.
Central government:
the government as de
fi
ned in the
European System of Accounts 1995
but excluding regional and local governments (see also
general government
). It includes all
administrative departments of the (central) state and other central agencies whose competence
extends over the entire economic territory, except for the administration of social security funds.
Central rate:
the exchange rate of each
ERM II
member currency vis-Ă -vis the euro around which
the
ERM II
fl
uctuation margins
are de
fi
ned.
Combined direct and portfolio investment balance:
the sum of the direct investment balance
and the portfolio investment balance in the
fi
nancial account of the balance of payments. Direct
investment is cross-border investment for the purpose of acquiring a lasting interest in an enterprise
resident in another economy (assumed, in practice, for ownership of at least 10% of ordinary shares
or voting power). This includes equity capital, reinvested earnings and âother capitalâ associated
with inter-company operations. Portfolio investment includes equity securities (when not a direct
investment) and debt securities (bonds and notes, and money market instruments).
Contingent liabilities:
government obligations that arise only upon the realisation of particular
events, e.g. state guarantees.
Convergence criteria:
the criteria set out in Article 140(1) of the
Treaty
(and developed further
in the Protocol on the convergence criteria referred to in Article 140) that must be ful
fi
lled by each
Member State before it can adopt the euro. They relate to performance in respect of price stability,
government
fi
nancial positions, exchange rates and long-term interest rates. The reports produced
under Article 140(1) by the
European Commission
and the
European Central Bank
examine
whether a high degree of sustainable convergence has been achieved by each Member State on the
basis of its ful
fi
lment of these criteria.
Convergence programme:
a programme outlining the path towards the achievement of
reference
values
indicated in the
Treaty
, containing medium-term government plans and assumptions
regarding the development of key economic variables. Measures to consolidate
fi
scal balances
are also highlighted, together with underlying economic scenarios. Convergence programmes
normally cover the following three to four years and are updated annually. They are examined
by the
European Commission
and the
Economic and Financial Committee
, whose reports
serve as the basis for an assessment by the
ECOFIN Council
. Following the start of Stage
Three of
Economic and Monetary Union
, Member States with a derogation continue to submit
convergence programmes, while countries which are members of the
euro area
present annual
stability programmes, in accordance with the
Stability and Growth Pact
.
Council of the European Union (Council):
an institution of the Union made up of representatives
of the governments of the Member States, normally the ministers responsible for the matters under
consideration. The Council meeting in the composition of the ministers of economics and
fi
nance is
often referred to as the
ECOFIN Council
.
Current transfers:
government transfers to enterprises, households and the rest of the world, net
of transfers received from the rest of the world, which are not related to capital expenditure; they
include production and import subsidies, social bene
fi
ts and transfers to Union institutions.
GLOSSARY
266
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Cyclical component of the budget balance:
shows the effect on the budget balance of the
output
gap
, as estimated by the
European Commission
.
Debt ratio (general government): general government
debt is de
fi
ned as total gross debt at
nominal value outstanding at the end of the year and consolidated between and within the sectors
of general government. The government debt-to-GDP ratio is de
fi
ned as the ratio of general
government debt to GDP at current market prices. It is the subject of one of the
fi
scal criteria used
to de
fi
ne the existence of an excessive de
fi
cit, as laid down in Article 126(2) of the
Treaty
.
De
fi
cit-debt adjustment:
the difference between the
general government
budget balance
(government de
fi
cit or surplus) and the change in general government debt. Such adjustments may
stem from, inter alia, changes in the amount of
fi
nancial assets held by the government, revaluations
or statistical adjustments.
De
fi
cit ratio (general government):
the
general government
de
fi
cit is de
fi
ned as net borrowing
and corresponds to the difference between general government revenue and general government
expenditure. The de
fi
cit ratio is de
fi
ned as the ratio of the general government de
fi
cit to GDP at
current market prices. It is the subject of one of the
fi
scal criteria used to de
fi
ne the existence of an
excessive de
fi
cit, as laid down in Article 126(2) of the
Treaty
.
ECOFIN Council:
see
Council of the European Union
.
Economic and Financial Committee:
a committee which contributes to the preparation of the
work of the
ECOFIN Council
and the European Commission. Its tasks are set out in Article 134
of the Treaty.
Economic and Monetary Union (EMU):
the process that led to the single currency, the euro, and
the single monetary policy in the
euro area
, as well as to the coordination of the economic policies
of the Member States. This process, as laid down in the Treaty, took place in three stages. Stage
Three, the
fi
nal stage, started on 1 January 1999 with the transfer of monetary competence to the
European Central Bank and the introduction of the euro. The cash changeover on 1 January 2002
completed the process of setting up EMU.
Effective exchange rate (EER) (nominal/real):
a weighted average of the bilateral exchange
rates of a countryâs currency against the currencies of its trading partners. The weights used re
fl
ect
the share of each partner country in the trade of the country under consideration and account for
competition in third markets. The real EER is the nominal EER de
fl
ated by a weighted average of
foreign prices relative to domestic prices.
Elderly dependency ratio:
the proportion of the population of a country aged 65 and over in
relation to the population aged 15-64.
ERM II (exchange rate mechanism II):
the exchange rate mechanism which provides the
framework for exchange rate policy cooperation between the
euro area
countries and the non-euro
area Member States. ERM II is a multilateral arrangement with
fi
xed, but adjustable,
central rates
and a standard
fl
uctuation band of Âą15%. Decisions concerning central rates and, possibly, narrower
fl
uctuation bands are taken by mutual agreement between the Member State concerned, the euro area
countries, the
European Central Bank (ECB)
and the other Member States participating in the
267
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G L O S S A R Y
mechanism. All participants in ERM II, including the ECB, have the right to initiate a con
fi
dential
procedure aimed at changing the central rates (see also
realignment
).
ERM II
fl
uctuation margins:
the mutually agreed
fl
oor and ceiling within which
ERM II
member
currencies are allowed to
fl
uctuate against the euro.
Euro area:
the area formed by the Member States whose currency is the euro
and in which a single
monetary policy is conducted under the responsibility of the
Governing Council
of the
European
Central Bank
. The euro area currently comprises Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain,
France, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia
and Finland.
Eurogroup:
an informal gathering of the ministers of economy and
fi
nance of the Member States
whose currency is the euro. Its status is recognised under Article 137 of the Treaty and in Protocol
No 14. The Eurogroup meets on a regular basis (usually prior to meetings of the
ECOFIN Council
)
to discuss issues connected with the euro area countriesâ shared responsibilities for the single
currency. The
European Commission
and the
European Central Bank
are regularly invited to
take part in these meetings.
European Central Bank (ECB):
the ECB lies at the centre of the
Eurosystem
and the
European
System of Central Banks (ESCB)
and has its own legal personality in accordance with the
Treaty
(Article 282(3)). It ensures that the tasks conferred upon the Eurosystem and the ESCB are
implemented either through its own activities or through those of the NCBs, pursuant to the
Statute
of the ESCB. The ECB is governed by the
Governing Council
and the
Executive Board
, and, as a
third decision-making body, by the
General Council
.
European Commission:
the Union institution which ensures the application of the provisions of
the
Treaty
. The Commission develops Union policies, proposes Union legislation and exercises
powers in speci
fi
c areas. In the area of economic policy, the Commission produces Integrated
Guidelines for Growth and Jobs, containing the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines and the
Employment Guidelines, and reports to the
Council of the European Union (Council)
on economic
developments and policies. It monitors public
fi
nances within the framework of multilateral
surveillance and submits reports to the Council.
European Council:
the Union institution which provides the Union with the necessary impetus for
its development and de
fi
nes the general political directions and priorities thereof. It consists of the
Heads of State or Government of the Member States, the President of the
European Commission
and the European Councilâs own President (see also
Council of the European Union
). It does not
have a legislative function.
European Monetary Institute (EMI):
a temporary institution established at the start of Stage
Two of
Economic and Monetary Union
on 1 January 1994. It went into liquidation following the
establishment of the
European Central Bank
on 1 June 1998.
European Parliament:
a Union institution comprising 736 representatives of the citizens of the
Member States (as of July 2009). The Parliament plays a role in the Unionâs legislative process,
although with differing prerogatives that depend on the procedures through which the respective
Union legislation is to be enacted. Where monetary policy and the
European System of Central
Banks
are concerned, the Parliament has mainly consultative powers. However, the
Treaty
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Convergence Report
May 2010
establishes certain procedures with respect to the democratic accountability of the
European Central
Bank (ECB)
to the Parliament (presentation of the ECBâs Annual Report, including a general
debate on monetary policy, and testimonies before the competent parliamentary committees).
European System of Accounts 1995 (ESA 95):
a comprehensive and integrated system of
macroeconomic accounts based on a set of internationally agreed statistical concepts, de
fi
nitions,
classi
fi
cations and accounting rules aimed at achieving a harmonised quantitative description of
the economies of the Member States. The ESA 95 is the Unionâs version of the world System of
National Accounts 1993 (SNA 93).
European System of Central Banks (ESCB):
composed of the
European Central Bank (ECB)
and the NCBs of all 27 Member States, i.e. it includes, in addition to the members of the
Eurosystem
,
the NCBs of those Member States whose currency is not the euro. The ESCB is governed by the
Governing Council
and the
Executive Board
of the ECB, and, as a third decision-making body of
the ECB, by the
General Council
.
Eurostat:
the Statistical Of
fi
ce of the Union. Eurostat is part of the
European Commission
and is
responsible for the production of Union statistics.
Eurosystem:
the central banking system of the
euro area
. It comprises the
European Central
Bank (ECB)
and the NCBs of the Member States whose currency is the euro (see Article 282(1) of
the Treaty). The Eurosystem is governed by the
Governing Council
and the
Executive Board
of
the ECB.
Excessive de
fi
cit procedure:
the provision set out in Article 126 of the
Treaty
and speci
fi
ed in the
Protocol (No 12) on the excessive de
fi
cit procedure requires Member States to maintain budgetary
discipline, de
fi
nes the criteria for a budgetary position to be considered an excessive de
fi
cit and
regulates steps to be taken following the observation that the requirements for the budget balance
or government debt have not been ful
fi
lled. Article 126 is supplemented by Council Regulation
(EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive
de
fi
cit procedure (as amended by Council Regulation (EC) No 1056/2005 of 27 June 2005), which
is one element of the
Stability and Growth Pact
.
Executive Board:
one of the decision-making bodies of the
European Central Bank (ECB)
.
It comprises the President and the Vice-President of the ECB and four other members appointed,
since the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon, by the
European Council
, acting by a quali
fi
ed
majority, on a recommendation from the
Council of the European Union
.
Exchange rate volatility:
a measure of the variability of exchange rates, usually calculated on the
basis of the annualised standard deviation of daily percentage changes.
Funded and unfunded pension schemes:
funded pension schemes are schemes that
fi
nance
pension payments by drawing down on segregated and earmarked assets. These schemes can be
exactly funded, under-funded or over-funded, depending on the size of the accumulated assets in
relation to the pension entitlements. Unfunded pension schemes are schemes that
fi
nance current
pension payments with the ongoing contributions paid by future pensioners and/or other ongoing
revenue, such as taxes or transfers; unfunded schemes may hold sizeable assets (e.g. for liquidity
reasons or as buffer funds).
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General Council:
one of the decision-making bodies of the
European Central Bank (ECB)
.
It comprises the President and the Vice-President of the ECB and the governors of all the NCBs of
the
European System of Central Banks
.
General government:
a sector de
fi
ned in the
European System of Accounts 1995
as comprising
resident entities that are engaged primarily in the production of non-market goods and services
intended for individual and collective consumption and/or in the redistribution of national income
and wealth. Included are central, regional and local government authorities, as well as social
security funds. Excluded are government-owned entities that conduct commercial operations, such
as public enterprises.
Governing Council:
the supreme decision-making body of the
European Central Bank (ECB)
.
It comprises all the members of the
Executive Board
of the ECB and the governors of the NCBs of
the Member States whose currency is the euro.
Gross external debt:
the outstanding amount of an economyâs
fi
nancial liabilities that require
payments of principal and/or interest at some point in the future to the rest of the world.
Growth-interest rate differential:
the difference between the annual change in nominal GDP and
the nominal average interest rate paid on outstanding government debt (the âeffectiveâ interest rate).
The growth-interest rate differential is one of the determinants of changes in the government
debt ratio
.
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP):
a measure of the development of consumer prices
that is compiled by
Eurostat
and harmonised for all Member States. Administered prices refer to
prices that are set directly by the government (e.g. fees for services provided by government) or that
are signi
fi
cantly in
fl
uenced by the government (e.g. prices requiring approval by the government or
regulators).
Harmonised long-term interest rates:
Article 4 of the Protocol (No 13) on the convergence
criteria referred to in Article 140 of the
Treaty
requires interest rate convergence to be measured
by means of interest rates on long-term government bonds or comparable securities, taking into
account differences in national de
fi
nitions. In order to ful
fi
l the Treaty requirement, the
European
Central Bank
has carried out conceptual work on the harmonisation of long-term interest rate
statistics and regularly collects data from the NCBs, in cooperation with and on behalf of the
European Commission
(
Eurostat
). Harmonised data are used for the convergence examination in
this report.
International investment position (i.i.p.):
the value and composition of an economyâs outstanding
net
fi
nancial claims on (or
fi
nancial liabilities to) the rest of the world. The net i.i.p. is also referred
to as the net external asset position.
Intervention at the limits:
compulsory intervention by central banks if their currencies reach the
fl
oor or the ceiling of their
ERM II
fl
uctuation margins
.
Intra-marginal intervention:
intervention by a central bank to in
fl
uence the exchange rate of its
currency within its
ERM II
fl
uctuation margins
.
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Investment:
gross
fi
xed capital formation as de
fi
ned in the
European System of Accounts 1995
.
Legal convergence:
the process of adaptation by Member States of their legislation, in order to
make it compatible with the
Treaties
and the
Statute
for the purposes of: i) integrating their NCBs
into the
European System of Central Banks
, and ii) adopting the euro and making their NCBs an
integral part of the
Eurosystem
.
Measures with a temporary effect:
all non-cyclical effects on
fi
scal variables which: i) reduce
(or increase) the
general government
de
fi
cit or gross debt (see also
debt ratio
and
de
fi
cit
ratio
) in a speci
fi
ed period only (âone-offâ effects), or ii) improve (or worsen) the budgetary
situation in a speci
fi
ed period at the expense (or to the bene
fi
t) of future budgetary situations
(âself-reversingâ effects).
Net capital expenditure:
comprises a governmentâs
fi
nal capital expenditure (i.e. gross
fi
xed capital
formation, plus net purchases of land and intangible assets, plus changes in stocks) and net capital
transfers paid (i.e. investment grants, plus unrequited transfers paid by the
general government
sector to
fi
nance speci
fi
c items of gross
fi
xed capital formation by other sectors, minus capital taxes
and other capital transfers received by the general government sector).
Non-cyclical factors:
in
fl
uences on a government budget balance that are not due to cyclical
fl
uctuations (see the
cyclical component of the budget balance
). They can therefore result
from either structural, i.e. permanent, changes in budgetary policies or from
measures with
a temporary effect
.
Output gap:
the difference between the actual and potential levels of output of an economy as a
percentage of potential output. Potential output is calculated on the basis of the trend rate of growth
of the economy. A positive output gap means that actual output is above the trend or potential level
of output, and suggests the possible emergence of in
fl
ationary pressures. A negative output gap
signi
fi
es that actual output is below the trend or potential level of output, and indicates the possible
absence of in
fl
ationary pressures.
Primary balance:
the
general government
sectorâs net borrowing or net lending excluding interest
payments on consolidated government liabilities.
Realignment:
a change in the
central rate
of a currency participating in
ERM II
.
Reference period:
time interval speci
fi
ed in Article 140 of the
Treaty
and in the Protocol (No 13)
on the convergence criteria for examining progress towards convergence.
Reference value:
the Protocol (No 12) on the excessive de
fi
cit procedure sets explicit reference
values for the
de
fi
cit ratio
(3% of GDP) and the
debt ratio
(60% of GDP), while the Protocol
(No 13) on the convergence criteria referred to in Article 140 of the
Treaty
speci
fi
es the
methodology for calculating the reference values for the examination of price and long-term interest
rate convergence.
Stability and Growth Pact:
intended to serve as a means of safeguarding sound government
fi
nances in the Member States in order to strengthen the conditions for price stability and for
sustainable growth conducive to employment creation. To this end, the Pact prescribes that Member
States specify medium-term budgetary objectives. It also contains concrete speci
fi
cations on the
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G L O S S A R Y
excessive de
fi
cit procedure
. The Pact consists of the Resolution of the Amsterdam European
Council of 17 June 1997 on the Stability and Growth Pact and two Council Regulations, namely:
i) Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary
positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies as amended by Regulation
(EC) No 1055/2005 of 27 June 2005, and ii) Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on
speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive de
fi
cit procedure as amended by
Regulation (EC) No 1056/2005 of 27 June 2005. The Stability and Growth Pact is complemented
by the
ECOFIN Councilâs
report entitled âImproving the implementation of the Stability and
Growth Pactâ, which was endorsed by the Brussels European Council of 22 and 23 March 2005.
It is also complemented by a Code of Conduct entitled âSpeci
fi
cations on the implementation of the
Stability and Growth Pact and Guidelines on the format and content of stability and convergence
programmesâ, which was endorsed by the ECOFIN Council on 11 October 2005.
Statute:
refers to the Protocol (No 4) on the Statute of the
European System of Central Banks
and of the
European Central Bank
, annexed to the
Treaties
.
Treaty of Lisbon (Lisbon Treaty):
amends the Unionâs two core treaties: the Treaty on European
Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community. The latter has been renamed the
Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The Treaty of Lisbon was signed in Lisbon on
13 December 2007 and entered into force on 1 December 2009. Unless stated otherwise, all references
in this report to the âTreatyâ refer to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and the
references to article numbers re
fl
ect the numbering in effect since 1 December 2009.
Treaties:
All references in this report to the âTreatiesâ refer to the Treaty on the Functioning of the
European Union and the Treaty on European Union.
EUR
OP
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CONVERGENCE REPORT
mAY 2010
m
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