Pure Power
Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030
A report by the European Wind Energy Association - 2009 update
Pure P
ow
er
EWEA
www.ewea.org
About EWEA
EWEA is the voice of the wind industry, actively promoting the utilisation of wind power in
Europe and worldwide. It now has over 600 members from almost 60 countries including
manufacturers with a 90% share of the world wind power market, plus component suppliers,
research institutes, national wind and renewables associations, developers, electricity
providers, finance and insurance companies and consultants.
Tel: +32 2 546 1940 - Fax: +32 2 546 1944
E-mail: ewea@ewea.org
Cert no. SGS-COC-006375
Pure Power
Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030
A report by the European Wind Energy Association - 2009 update
Text and analysis: Prof. Arthouros Zervos and Christian Kjaer
Contributors: Sarah Azau, Julian Scola, Jesus Quesada
Project coordinator: Raffaella Bianchin
Design and production: www.inextremis.be
Published in November 2009
PURE POWER 2009
4
Foreword
I am delighted to introduce this latest edition of
Pure
Power
, the most up-to-date scenarios on the future
of wind energy in Europe, produced by the European
Wind Energy Association (EWEA).
Wind power has experienced dramatic growth over
recent years with more new installations than any
other electricity-generating technology, including
coal, gas and nuclear, in 2008. We at the European
Commission are keen to see an expansion of renew-
able energies as a way to fight climate change, enhance
Europeâs energy security, and improve our competitive-
ness, which is why we support this publication of wind
industry growth scenarios. I personally find it hugely
encouraging seeing more ambitious growth targets for
the sector than previously predicted by EWEA.
In the European Union we have established the target
of achieving a 20% share of renewable energies in the
overall energy mix by 2020. To reach this we estimate
that 34% of Europeâs electricity needs must be met
by renewable technologies, with wind power meeting
much of the increase.
Further benefits will arise from the switch to green
energy including significant employment opportuni-
ties. Creating energy from sources indigenous to
Europe is also central to reducing our energy depend-
ence on fossil fuel exporting nations in less stable
regions of the world.
The European Commission is convinced that there is
a huge potential for wind energy in Europe, including
offshore wind. However we are also aware of the
significant obstacles the industry faces in meeting its
targets. Europe needs a Europe-wide electricity grid
and interconnectors between Member States, and
properly functioning electricity markets, to cope with
larger amounts of wind power. Planning processes for
wind farms also need to be streamlined.
Reading this publication, a clear and concise analysis
of the future projections for wind energy in Europe, has
persuaded me that wind energy is heading in the right
direction, and one that is essential for the sustain-
ability of our future generations.
Christopher Jones
European Commission
Director, New and Renewable Sources of Energy,
Energy Efficiency and Innovation
DG TREN
5
PURE POWER 2009
Contents
Picturing Europeâs Energy Future â Pure Power
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
1.
National Wind Energy Scenarios for 2020
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8
2.
The EU Energy Mix
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
3.
The Current Status of Wind Power
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
4.
The Evolution of Wind Energy Targets
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30
5.
Three Scenarios for the Development of the EU Wind Power Market (2009-2013)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
36
6.
EWEAâs 2020 Target
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38
7.
EWEAâs 2030 Target
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44
8.
Wind Powerâs Share of EU Electricity Demand
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
9.
Contribution of Wind Power to Electricity Generation Capacity
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
54
10.
Wind Power and CO
2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
57
11.
Avoided Fuel Costs
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
60
12.
Wind Energy Investments up to 2030
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
64
13.
Wind Energy After 2030
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
68
Annex 1: Cumulative Installations of Wind Power in the EU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
71
Annex 2: Annual Installations of Wind Power in the EU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
72
Annex 3: Wind Energy Installations 2000-2030
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
73
Annex 4: Wind Energy Production and Share of Electricity Consumption 2000-2030
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
74
Annex 5: Wind Energy Investments up to 2030
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
75
Annex 6: CO
2
Avoided from Wind
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
76
References
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
77
Foreword
PURE POWER 2009
6
Europeâs current electricity supply structure still bears
the characteristics of the time in which it was devel-
oped. It is national in nature, the technologies applied
are ageing and the markets supporting it are underde-
veloped. Given the international nature of the energy
challenges that the EU is facing, it is astounding that,
22 years after the Single European Act was signed, we
still do not have a well-functioning internal market for
electricity in Europe.
Europe is faced with the global challenges of climate
change, depleting indigenous energy resources,
increasing fuel costs and the threat of supply disrup-
tions. Over the next 12 years, 332 GW of new electricity
capacity â 42% of current EU capacity - needs to be
built to replace ageing power plants and meet the
expected increase in demand. Over the next 12 years,
Europe must use the opportunity created by the large
turnover in capacity to construct a new, modern renew-
able energy power supply and grid system capable of
meeting the energy and climate challenges of the 21
st
century, while enhancing Europeâs competitiveness
and creating hundreds of thousands of manufac-
turing and related jobs. The new power system must
be supported by a well functioning internal market in
electricity in which investors, rather than consumers,
are exposed to carbon and fuel price risk.
The 2009 EU Renewable Energy Directive aims to
increase the share of renewable energy in the EU from
8.6% in 2005 to 20% in 2020. In 2007, the share of
renewable energy had already reached 9.9%. At that
pace â an increase of 0.65%-points per year â the EU
will reach 18.35% renewables in 2020. The European
Commission took on an ambitious political project
when it proposed a binding 20% target for renewables
and succeeded. However, from a technology point of
view, the 20% target is not ambitious. We can almost
reach it just by continuing doing what we did in the
period 2005 to 2007, when no binding Directive was
in place.
Supported by national frameworks and the adoption of
the 2001 EU Directive on the Promotion of Electricity
from Renewable Energy Sources, wind energy tech-
nology has developed to a point where, in 2008,
more new wind power capacity was installed in the EU
than any other power generating technology, including
coal, gas and nuclear power. From 2002 to 2007 the
wind energy sector created more than 60,000 new
direct jobs in the EU, equal to 33 new jobs every day
of the year. In 2008, European manufacturers had a
60% share of the âŦ36 billion global market for wind
turbines.
As the cheapest of the renewable electricity technolo-
gies, onshore wind will be the largest contributor to
meeting the 34% share of renewable electricity needed
by 2020 in the EU, as envisaged by the 2009 Directive.
As a consequence of the adoption of the Directive, the
European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), in March
2009, increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230
GW, including 40 GW of offshore wind power. With this
report, EWEA is now increasing its 2030 target from
300 GW to 400 GW.
By 2020, most of the EUâs renewable electricity will
be produced by onshore wind farms. Europe must,
however, use the coming decade to prepare for the
large-scale exploitation of its largest indigenous
resource, offshore wind power. We must stop thinking
of electrical grids as national infrastructure and start
developing them - onshore and offshore - to become
European corridors of electricity trade. And we must
start developing them now. The faster they are devel-
oped, the faster we will have a domestic substitute if
future fuel import supplies are disrupted or the cost
of fuel becomes prohibitively expensive, as the world
experienced during 2008.
With wind energy, Europe is in prime position to turn
the looming energy and climate crisis into an oppor-
tunity for our companies, a benefit to the environment
and a source of increased welfare to our citizens.
Arthouros Zervos
Christian KjÃĻr
EWEA President
EWEA Chief Executive Officer
Picturing Europeâs Energy
Future â Pure Power
7
PURE POWER 2009
European Union: 64,935 MW
Candidate Countries: 452 MW
EFTA: 442 MW
Total Europe: 65,933 MW
PORTUGAL
2,862
SPAIN
16,740
FRANCE
3,404
UNITED
KINGDOM
3,241
IRELAND
1,002
BELGIUM
384
NETHERLANDS
2,225
LUXEMBOURG
35
GERMANY
23,903
POLAND
472
DENMARK
3,180
SWEDEN
1,021
FINLAND
143
ESTONIA
78
LATVIA 27
LITHUANIA 54
ITALY
3,736
AUSTRIA
995
CZECH
REPUBLIC
150
SLOVAKIA 3
HUNGARY
127
SLOVENIA
0
ROMANIA
10
BULGARIA
158
GREECE
985
MALTA
0
RUSSIA
11
NORWAY
428
UKRAINE
90
SWITZERLAND
14
CROATIA
18
TURKEY
433
CYPRUS
0
FAROE ISLANDS
4
*FYROM = Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Note: Due to previous-year adjustments, project decommissioning of
70 MW, re-powering and rounding figures up and down, the total for the
2008 end-of-year cumulative capacity is not exactly equivalent to the
sum of the 2007 end-of-year total plus the 2008 additions.
End 2007
Installed 2008
End 2008
Candidate Countries (MW)
Croatia
17
1
18
FYROM*
0
0
0
Turkey
147
286
433
Total
164
287
452
EFTA (MW)
Iceland
0
0
0
Liechtenstein
0
0
0
Norway
326
102
428
Switzerland
12
2
14
Total
338
104
442
Other (MW)
Faroe Islands
4
0
4
Ukraine
89
1
90
Russia
13
0
11
Total
106
1
105
Total Europe
57,125
8,877
65,933
End
2007
Installed
2008
End
2008
EU Capacity (MW)
Austria
982
14
995
Belgium
287
104
384
Bulgaria
57
101
158
Cyprus
0
0
0
Czech Republic
116
34
150
Denmark
3,125
77
3,180
Estonia
59
20
78
Finland
110
33
143
France
2,454
950
3,404
Germany
22,247
1,665
23,903
Greece
871
114
985
Hungary
65
62
127
Ireland
795
208
1,002
Italy
2,726
1,010
3,736
Latvia
27
0
27
Lithuania
51
3
54
Luxembourg
35
0
35
Malta
0
0
0
Netherlands
1,747
500
2,225
Poland
276
196
472
Portugal
2,150
712
2,862
Romania
8
2
10
Slovakia
5
0
3
Slovenia
0
0
0
Spain
15,131
1,609
16,740
Sweden
788
236
1,021
United Kingdom
2,406
836
3,241
Total EU-15
55,854
8,067 63,857
Total EU-12
663
417
1,078
Total EU-27
56,517
8,484 64,935
Of which offshore
and near shore
1,114
357
1,471
Wind power installed in Europe by end of
2008 (cumulative)
PURE POWER 2009
8
1.
National
Wind Energy
Scenarios
for 2020
Photo:
V
estas
9
PURE POWER 2009
The 2009 EU Renewable Energy Directive
1
requires
Member States to submit National Renewable Energy
Action Plans
2
(NREAPs) to the European Commission
by 30 June 2010.
All 27 EU Member States must provide estimates of
their gross final energy consumption of all types of
energy (both renewable and non-renewable), for each
year between 2010 and 2020. They must provide
expected contributions for three different sectors:
heating/cooling, electricity, and transport. They also
need to provide a target for each renewable energy
technology, including both onshore and offshore wind
energy, and they must specify both installed capacity
(MW) and electricity production (GWh).
In consultation with its corporate members and
national wind energy associations, EWEA has analysed
the wind energy markets in the 27 EU Member States.
This chapter provides the results of this analysis in the
form of two 2020 scenarios for each national market:
a âlowâ scenario and a âhighâ scenario. The âlowâ
scenario is based on EWEAâs traditionally conservative
approach to setting future targets for wind energy (see
Chapter 4). It assumes a total installed capacity of
wind energy in the EU by 2020 of 230 GW, producing
580 TWh of electricity.
The âhighâ scenario acknowledges that wind power
â as the most affordable of the renewable electricity
technologies â is likely to meet a much higher share
of the EUâs Renewable Energy Directive target than
the 12% of electricity demand by 2020 indicated by
the European Commission
3
. For many of the coun-
tries, the âhighâ scenario also takes into account wind
power targets already announced by national govern-
ments. In the âhighâ scenario, total installed wind
power capacity will reach 265 GW by 2020, producing
681 TWh of electricity.
The aim of this chapter is to provide national
governments with some guidance on wind powerâs
contribution to meeting their binding national targets.
For more details, including a breakdown of the national
scenarios on onshore and offshore wind, see Table 1.1.
1
Source: EU, 2009a.
2
Source: EC, 2009a.
3
Source: EC, 2007a.
PURE POWER 2009
10
1. National Wind Energy Scenarios for 2020
2008:
995 MW
2020 (L/H):
3,500/4,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
209/250
2008 TWh (%):
2.0 TWh (2.9%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
7.5/8.6 TWh
(9.5/10.9%)
AUSTRIA
MW
TWh
2008:
384 MW
2020 (L/H):
3,900/4,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
293/343
2008 TWh (%):
0.8 TWh (0.9%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
11.3/13.0 TWh
(10.4/11.9%)
BELGIUM
MW
TWh
2008:
158 MW
2020 (L/H):
3,000/3,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
237/279
2008 TWh (%):
0.3 TWh (0.9%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
7.1/8.3 TWh
(12.6/14.7%)
BULGARIA
MW
TWh
2008:
0 MW
2020 (L/H):
300/500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
25/42
2008 TWh (%):
0 TWh (0.0%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
0.6/1.0 TWh
(8.9/14.8%)
CYPRUS
MW
TWh
2008:
150 MW
2020 (L/H):
1,600/1,800 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
121/138
2008 TWh (%):
0.3 TWh (0.4%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
3.5/3.9 TWh
(3.4/3.8%)
CZECH REPUBLIC
MW
TWh
2008:
3,180 MW
2020 (L/H):
6,000/6,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
235/277
2008 TWh (%):
7.7 TWh (20.3%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
17.0/18.5 TWh
(42.5/46.2%)
DENMARK
MW
TWh
2008:
78 MW
2020 (L/H):
500/600 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
35/44
2008 TWh (%):
0.2 TWh (1.8%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
1.2/1.6 TWh
(8.4/10.9%)
ESTONIA
MW
TWh
2008:
143 MW
2020 (L/H):
1,900/3,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
146/238
2008 TWh (%):
0.4 TWh (0.4%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
5.1/8.6 TWh
(5.0/8.4%)
FINLAND
MW
TWh
2008:
3,404 MW
2020 (L/H):
23,000/26,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
1,633/1,883
2008 TWh (%):
8.1 TWh (1.6%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
62.4/72.3 TWh
(9.9/11.4%)
FRANCE
MW
TWh
2008:
23,903 MW
2020 (L/H):
49,000/52,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
2,091/2,341
2008 TWh (%):
42.9 TWh (6.9%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
106.8/116.2 TWh
(15.8/17.2%)
GERMANY
MW
TWh
2008:
985 MW
2020 (L/H):
6,500/8,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
460/626
2008 TWh (%):
2.5 TWh (3.7%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
17.5/23.1 TWh
(21.8/28.8%)
GREECE
MW
TWh
2008:
127 MW
2020 (L/H):
900/1,200 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
64/89
2008 TWh (%):
0.3 TWh (0.6%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
2.1/2.8 TWh
(4.0/5.3%)
HUNGARY
MW
TWh
2008:
35 MW
2020 (L/H):
300/700 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
22/55
2008 TWh (%):
0.1 TWh (0.9%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
0.6/1.5 TWh
(14.1/33.1%)
LUXEMBOURG
MW
TWh
2008:
0 MW
2020 (L/H):
100/200 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
8/17
2008 TWh (%):
0 TWh (0%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
0.2/0.4 TWh
(11.2/22.4%)
MALTA
MW
TWh
2008:
2,225 MW
2020 (L/H):
9,500/11,400 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
606/765
2008 TWh (%):
5.0 TWh (4.2%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
27.6/34.0 TWh
(18.1/22.3%)
NETHERLANDS
MW
TWh
2008:
472 MW
2020 (L/H):
10,500/12,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
836/1,002
2008 TWh (%):
1.0 TWh (0.7%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
25.4/30.1 TWh
(12.5/14.8%)
POLAND
MW
TWh
2008:
2,862 MW
2020 (L/H):
7,500/9,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
387/512
2008 TWh (%):
6.3 TWh (11.4%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
16.8/20.2 TWh
(21.8/26.2%)
PORTUGAL
MW
TWh
2008:
1,002 MW
2020 (L/H):
6,000/7,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
417/500
2008 TWh (%):
2.7 TWh (9.3%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
17.6/20.4 TWh
(47.8%/55.4%)
IRELAND
MW
TWh
2008:
3,736 MW
2020 (L/H):
15,500/18,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
980/1,189
2008 TWh (%):
7.9 TWh (2.2%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
33.5/38.1 TWh
(7.6/8.6%)
ITALY
MW
TWh
2008:
27 MW
2020 (L/H):
200/300 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
14/23
2008 TWh (%):
0.1 TWh (0.8%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
0.5/0.8 TWh
(5.0/8.9%)
LATVIA
MW
TWh
2008:
54 MW
2020 (L/H):
1,000/1,100 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
79/87
2008 TWh (%):
0.1 TWh (1%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
2.4/2.7 TWh
(11.1/12.8%)
LITHUANIA
MW
TWh
By June 2010, the 27 EU Member States must provide the European
Commission with indicative targets â in terms of both capacity (MW) and
energy production (MWh) - for all energy technologies, including onshore
and offshore wind energy.
This map illustrates, for each of the 27 Member States, a) the current
capacity (MW) and electricity production (TWh), b) the âLowâ and âHighâ
2020 targets for capacity and electricity and the corresponding share of
national demand and c) the amount of average capacity needed to meet
the âLowâ and âHighâ targets. In addition, the colour code of the map
indicates the average annual level of MW needed between 2009 and
2020 to meet the âHighâ scenario.
Low scenario for the EU
For the EU as a whole, the âLowâ scenario requires installed capacity to
increase from 65 GW by end 2008 to 230 GW in 2020. That would
require an average annual increase in capacity of 13.8 GW in 2009-
2020. Wind energy production would increase from 137 TWh (2008)
to 580 TWh (2020) and wind energyâs share of total electricity demand
would increase from 4.1% in 2008 to 14.2% in 2020.
High scenario for the EU
For the EU as a whole, the âHighâ scenario requires installed capacity to
increase from 65 GW by end 2008 to 265 GW in 2020. That would
require an average annual increase in capacity of 16.7 GW in 2009-
2020. Wind energy production would increase from 137 TWh (2008)
to 681 TWh (2020) and wind energyâs share of total electricity demand
would increase from 4.1% in 2008 to 16.7% in 2020.
Please note that the calculation of total EU electricity production in
this chapter differs slightly from the EU totals calculated in subsequent
chapters of this report, due to a different methodology. For more details,
including a breakdown of the national scenarios on onshore and offshore
wind, see Table 1.1.
11
PURE POWER 2009
CYPRUS
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
FRANCE
UNITED
KINGDOM
IRELAND
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
LUXEMBOURG
GERMANY
POLAND
DENMARK
SWEDEN
FINLAND
ESTONIA
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
ITALY
AUSTRIA
CZECH
REPUBLIC
SLOVAKIA
HUNGARY
SLOVENIA
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
GREECE
MALTA
2008:
3 MW
2020 (L/H):
800/1,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
66/83
2008 TWh (%):
0 TWh (0%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
1.8/2.3 TWh
(4.2/5.3%)
SLOVAKIA
MW
TWh
2008:
0 MW
2020 (L/H):
500/700 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
42/58
2008 TWh (%):
0 TWh (0%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
1.1/1.6 TWh
(6.3/8.8%)
SLOVENIA
MW
TWh
2008:
16,740 MW
2020 (L/H):
40,000/42,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
1,938/2,147
2008 TWh (%):
36.7 TWh (12.3%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
94.9/101.7 TWh
(24.5/26.3%)
SPAIN
MW
TWh
2008:
wind energy capacity currently installed (MW)
2020 (L/H):
low/high target for 2020 wind capacity (MW)
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
Average annual increase
in wind needed to meet both scenarios (MW)
2008 TWh (%):
current wind electricity production (TWh)
and share of total electricity (%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
low/high target for electricity
production from wind in 2020 (TWh) and as share of
total electricity (%)
Key to country information
2008:
64,935 MW
2020 (L/H):
230,000/265,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020
(L/H):
13,755/16,672
2008 TWh (%):
137 TWh
(4.1%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
580.1/681.4 (14.2/16.7%)
EU-27
0- 250
250 - 1,000
1,000 - 2,000
2,000 - 3,000
Average MW that need to be
installed/year in high scenario:
2008:
10 MW
2020 (L/H):
3,000/3,500 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
249/291
2008 TWh (%):
0 TWh (0%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
7.1/8.3 TWh
(7.7/8.9%)
ROMANIA
MW
TWh
2008:
1,021 MW
2020 (L/H):
9,000/11,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
665/832
2008 TWh (%):
2.3 TWh (1.6%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
24.5/29.1 TWh
(13.1/15.5%)
SWEDEN
MW
TWh
2008:
3,241 MW
2020 (L/H):
26,000/34,000 MW
Avg annual 2009-2020 (L/H):
1,897/2,563
2008 TWh (%):
9.3 TWh (2.3%)
2020 TWh (L/H):
83.9/112.5 TWh
(18.6/24.9%)
UNITED KINGDOM
MW
TWh
PURE POWER 2009
12
TWO SCENARIOS UP TO 2020*
TABLE 1.1
MW
installed
end
2008
MW
installed
2020
lo
w
MW
installed
2020
high
Avg
annual
MW
lo
w
(2009-2020)
Avg
annual
MW
high
(2009-2020)
Country
Onshore Offshore Total Onshore Offshore Total Onshore Offshore Total
Austria
995
0
995 3,500
0
3,500 4,000
0
4,000
209
250
Belgium
354
30
384 2,100 1,800 3,900 2,500 2,000 4,500
293
343
Bulgaria
158
0
158 3,000
0
3,000 3,500
0
3,500
237
279
Cyprus
0
0
0
300
0
300
500
0
500
25
42
Czech Republic
150
0
150 1,600
0
1,600 1,800
0
1,800
121
138
Denmark
2,771
409 3,180 3,700 2,300 6,000 4,000 2,500 6,500
235
277
Estonia
78
0
78
500
0
500
500
100
600
35
44
Finland
119
24
143 1,500
400 1,900 2,000 1,000 3,000
146
238
France
3,404
0
3,404 19,000 4,000 23,000 20,000 6,000 26,000 1,633 1,883
Germany
23,891
12 23,903 41,000 8,000 49,000 42,000 10,000 52,000 2,091 2,341
Greece
985
0
985 6,500
0
6,500 8,300
200 8,500
460
626
Hungary
127
0
127
900
0
900 1,200
0
1,200
64
89
Ireland
977
25 1,002 5,000 1,000 6,000 6,000 1,000 7,000
417
500
Italy
3,736
0
3,736 15,000
500 15,500 17,000 1,000 18,000
980 1,189
Latvia
27
0
27
200
0
200
200
100
300
14
23
Lithuania
54
0
54 1,000
0
1,000 1,000
100 1,100
79
87
Luxembourg
35
0
35
300
0
300
700
0
700
22
55
Malta
0
0
0
100
0
100
200
0
200
8
17
Netherlands
1,978
247 2,225 5,000 4,500 9,500 5,400 6,000 11,400
606
765
Poland
472
0
472 10,000
500 10,500 12,000
500 12,500
836 1,002
Portugal
2,862
0
2,862 7,500
0
7,500 9,000
0
9,000
387
512
Romania
10
0
10 3,000
0 3,000 3,500
0
3,500
249
291
Slovakia
3
0
3
800
0
800 1,000
0
1,000
66
83
Slovenia
0
0
0
500
0
500
700
0
700
42
58
Spain
16,740
0 16,740 39,000 1,000 40,000 41,000 1,500 42,500 1,938 2,147
Sweden
888
133 1,021 6,000 3,000 9,000 8,000 3,000 11,000
665
832
UK
2,650
591 3,241 13,000 13,000 26,000 14,000 20,000 34,000 1,897 2,563
EU-27
63,464 1,471 64,935 190,000 40,000 230,000 210,000 55,000 265,000 13,755 16,672
* Source: Eurostat and EWEA. The national wind power shares are calculated by taking the electricity that the capacity installed by the end of 2008 will produce in a normal
wind year and dividing it by the actual 2007 electricity demand, which is the latest available figure from Eurostat. Average capacity factors are assumed by EWEA for each
country. The statistical methodology used differs from the methodology otherwise used throughout this report. The figures may differ from the shares reported by national
wind energy associations due to differences in methodology.
13
PURE POWER 2009
TWh
end
2008
Tw
h
2020
lo
w
TWh
2020
high
Final
Electricity
Consumption
(2007)
Final
Electricity
Consumtion
(2020)
W
ind
share
2008
W
ind
Share
2020
lo
w
W
ind
share
2020
high
Country
Onshore Offshore Total Onshore Offshore Total Onshore Offshore Total
Austria
2.0
0.0
2.0
7.5
0.0
7.5
8.6
0.0
8.6
70.0
78.5
2.9%
9.5%
10.9%
Belgium
0.7
0.1
0.8
4.7
6.6
11.3
5.6
7.4
13.0
95.6
109.5
0.9%
10.4%
11.9%
Bulgaria
0.3
0.0
0.3
7.1
0.0
7.1
8.3
0.0
8.3
38.8
56.1
0.9%
12.6%
14.7%
Cyprus
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.6
1.0
0.0
1.0
4.9
6.5
0.0%
8.9%
14.8%
Czech Republic
0.3
0.0
0.3
3.5
0.0
3.5
3.9
0.0
3.9
72.0
103.3
0.4%
3.4%
3.8%
Denmark
6.3
1.4
7.7
8.6
8.4
17.0
9.3
9.1
18.5
38.2
40.0
20.3%
42.5%
46.2%
Estonia
0.2
0.0
0.2
1.2
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.4
1.6
9.8
14.5
1.8%
8.4%
10.9%
Finland
0.3
0.0
0.4
3.7
1.5
5.1
4.9
3.7
8.6
93.8
101.6
0.4%
5.0%
8.4%
France
8.1
0.0
8.1
47.7
14.7
62.4
50.2
22.1
72.3 513.0
633.0
1.6%
9.9%
11.4%
Germany
42.9
0.0
42.9
77.4
29.4 106.8
79.4
36.8 116.2 620.5
674.1
6.9%
15.8%
17.2%
Greece
2.5
0.0
2.5
17.5
0.0
17.5
22.4
0.7
23.1
67.9
80.2
3.7%
21.8%
28.8%
Hungary
0.3
0.0
0.3
2.1
0.0
2.1
2.8
0.0
2.8
43.9
53.0
0.6%
4.0%
5.3%
Ireland
2.7
0.0
2.7
13.9
3.7
17.6
16.7
3.7
20.4
29.6
36.8
9.3%
47.8%
55.4%
Italy
7.9
0.0
7.9
33.5
0.0
33.5
38.1
0.0
38.1 360.2
441.6
2.2%
7.6%
8.6%
Latvia
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.8
7.8
9.5
0.8%
5.0%
8.9%
Lithuania
0.1
0.0
0.1
2.4
0.0
2.4
2.4
0.4
2.7
12.6
21.3
1.0%
11.1%
12.8%
Luxembourg
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.6
1.5
0.0
1.5
8.0
4.4
0.9%
14.1%
33.1%
Malta
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.4
2.3
1.7
0.0%
11.2%
22.4%
Netherlands
4.2
0.9
5.0
11.0
16.5
27.6
12.0
22.0
34.0 120.8
152.1
4.2%
18.1%
22.3%
Poland
1.0
0.0
1.0
23.6
1.8
25.4
28.3
1.8
30.1 154.0
203.7
0.7%
12.5%
14.8%
Portugal
6.3
0.0
6.3
16.8
0.0
16.8
20.2
0.0
20.2
54.7
77.4
11.4%
21.8%
26.2%
Romania
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.1
0.0
7.1
8.3
0.0
8.3
59.6
92.6
0.0%
7.7%
8.9%
Slovakia
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
1.8
2.3
0.0
2.3
29.8
43.0
0.0%
4.2%
5.3%
Slovenia
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.1
1.6
0.0
1.6
15.3
18.2
0.0%
6.3%
8.8%
Spain
36.7
0.0
36.7
91.3
3.7
94.9
96.2
5.5 101.7 297.5
387.0
12.3%
24.5%
26.3%
Sweden
1.9
0.5
2.3
13.5
11.0
24.5
18.1
11.0
29.1 150.2
187.3
1.6%
13.1%
15.5%
UK
7.2
2.1
9.3
36.2
47.7
83.9
39.0
73.5 112.5 401.4
452.3
2.3%
18.6%
24.9%
EU-27
131.9
5.2
137.0 435.0 145.1 580.1 482.9 198.4 681.4 3,372.2 4,079.3
4.1%
14.2%
16.7%
PURE POWER 2009
14
2.
The EU
Energy Mix
Photo
: GWEC
15
PURE POWER 2009
Between 2000 and 2008, the EUâs total installed
power capacity increased by 225 GW, reaching
800 GW by the end of 2008 (see also Table 2.1 and
Table 2.2). The most notable change in the energy mix
is the 75% increase in gas capacity to 177 GW. Wind
energy increased five-fold over the same period â from
13 GW to 65 GW.
The ten countries that became new Member States in
May 2004 added another 112 GW to the EUâs energy
generation mix in 2005, including 80 GW of coal,
12 GW of large hydro, 12 GW of natural gas, 6.5 GW
of nuclear and 186 MW of wind power.
Natural gasâ share of total EU capacity has increased
by 50% since 2000, reaching 22% by end 2008.
Coalâs share is unchanged while oil (down by
5%-points), large hydro (down 3%-points) and nuclear
(down 6%-points) have all decreased their share. Wind
energyâs share has increased from 2% in 2000 to 8%
in 2008.
INSTALLED POWER CAPACITY EU (2000-2008)*
FIGURE 2.1
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
n
Natural gas
n
Wind
n
Coal
n
Fuel oil
n
Large hydro
n
Biomass
n
Nuclear
n
PV
n
Other
GW
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
EU POWER CAPACITY MIX (2000)
(TOTAL: 575 GW)
FIGURE 2.2
EU POWER CAPACITY MIX (2008)
(TOTAL: 801 GW)
FIGURE 2.3
Wind
2%
Natural gas
14%
Other
1%
Large hydro
19%
Nuclear
22%
Coal
28%
Fuel oil
12%
EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
PV
0%
Large hydro
16%
Nuclear
16%
Biomass
1%
Coal
29%
Fuel oil
7%
* EU-25 before January 2007; EU-15 before May 2005
Natural gas
22%
Other
1%
PV
1%
Wind
8%
PURE POWER 2009
16
Changes in EU net installed capacity for the various
electricity generating technologies from 2000 to 2008
are shown in Figure 2.4. Over the eight year period, net
capacity increased by 123 GW. The growth of natural
gas (84 GW) and wind power (55 GW) came about
at the expense of fuel oil (down 13 GW), coal (down
11 GW) and nuclear power (down 6 GW). In 2008,
23.9 GW of new capacity was installed in the EU-27,
of which 8.5 GW (36%) was wind, 6.9 GW (29%) was
natural gas and 4.2 GW (18%) was solar PV.
Wind energy increased its share of total power
capacity in the EU to 8% in 2008. But it is windâs
contribution to new generation capacity that is even
more striking. 30% of all power capacity installed
since 2000 has been wind power, making it the
second largest contributor to new EU capacity over
the last ten years after natural gas (52%). 5.6% of
all new capacity over the eight year period was coal,
4.7% solar PV, 3.6% fuel oil, 1.9% large hydro, 1.1%
biomass and 0.7% nuclear power (Figure 2.5).
2008 was the first year in which more new wind energy
capacity was installed in the EU than any other elec-
tricity generating capacity. 23.8 GW of new capacity
was installed, of which 8.5 GW (36%) was wind and
6.9 GW (29%) was gas. Another renewable energy
technology â solar PV - came in third at 4.2 GW (18%).
In total, 57% (14 GW) of all new generating capacity
installed in the EU in 2008 was renewable energy
(Figure 2.6).
NET INCREASE/DECREASE IN POWER GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES (2000-2008)
(TOTAL INCREASE: 123 GW)
FIGURE 2.4
Natural gas
83,674
Large hydro
2,921
Biomass
1,907
PV
8,827
Other
1,183
Coal
-11,216
Fuel oil
-13,216
Nuclear
-6,251
Wind
55,257
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
MW
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
2. The EU Energy Mix
17
PURE POWER 2009
NEW EU POWER GENERATING CAPACITY (2000-2008)
(TOTAL: 187 GW)
FIGURE 2.5
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
MW
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
n
Wind
n
Natural gas
n
PV
n
Fuel oil
n
Coal
n
Large hydro
n
Biomass
n
Nuclear
n
Other
Wind
29.8%
Natural gas
51.6%
Other
1.0%
PV
4.7%
Large hydro
1.9%
Nuclear
0.7%
Coal
5.6%
Fuel oil
3.6%
Biomass
1.1%
NEW EU INSTALLED POWER CAPACITY (2008)
(TOTAL: 23,581 MW)
FIGURE 2.6
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
MW
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
8,484
2,495
296
60
4,200
149
Wind
Natural gas
PV
Fuel oil
Coal
Large hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Other
35.6%
29.1%
17.6%
10.5%
3.2%
2.0%
1.2%
0.3%
0.6%
6,932
762
473
PURE POWER 2009
18
NEW ANNUAL POWER CAPACITY IN THE EU 1995-2008
(MW)*
TABLE 2.1
Year
Natural
gas
Wind
Coal
Fuel oil
Large
hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
PV
Other
Total
1995
4,661
814
847
1,273
377
0
1,258
0
282
9,511
1996
7,401
979
899
1,165
150
569
0
14
176
11,353
1997
9,130
1,277
2,792
964
482
82
1,516
18
143
16,403
1998
4,836
1,700
2,783
898
416
126
0
16
148
10,923
1999
4,855
3,225
62
269
352
9
4,548
31
45
13,396
2000
10,320
3,209
2,352
438
18
117
0
54
178
16,686
2001
8,391
4,428
703
52
161
383
0
97
416
14,631
2002
7,231
5,913
606
283
72
412
0
69
172
14,758
2003
6,166
5,462
2,725
1,718
1,050
244
0
184
116
17,665
2004
13,130
5,838
1,204
603
935
235
40
348
292
22,625
2005
14,025
6,204
677
118
225
101
50
816
104
22,320
2006
19,543
7,592
1,010
819
433
32
163
1,530
291
31,413
2007
10,670
8,535
332
212
203
196
987
1,529
93
22,755
2008
6,932
8,484
762
2,495
473
296
60
4,200
149
23,851
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN THE EU 1995-2008
(MW)*
TABLE 2.2
Year
Natural
gas
Wind
Coal
Fuel oil
Large
hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
PV
Other
Total
1995
58,482
2,497
160,926
69,723 108,797
1,928
125,065
47
4,748 532,213
1996
65,055
3,476
161,001
69,694 108,901
2,496
125,065
61
4,924 540,674
1997
72,982
4,753
163,095
69,019 109,382
2,579
126,522
79
5,066 553,476
1998
77,797
6,453
162,051
68,937 109,719
2,705
125,322
95
5,214 558,293
1999
82,192
9,678
160,686
66,490 110,048
2,673
128,471
126
5,219 565,583
2000
89,801
12,887
159,482
66,518 110,066
2,790
128,471
180
5,282 575,476
2001
95,457
17,315
156,671
64,119 110,252
3,173
128,471
277
5,618 581,353
2002
100,825
23,098
155,235
64,024 110,325
3,585
128,179
346
5,619 591,236
2003
106,311
28,491
151,644
59,038 111,374
3,760
127,267
530
5,735 594,151
2004
118,320
34,372
150,493
56,540 111,649
3,995
127,067
878
5,817 609,132
2005
131,797
40,500
150,333
53,650 111,859
4,096
126,160
1,694
5,881 625,971
2006
162,651
48,031
230,072
53,303 124,337
4,329
130,309
3,224
6,172 762,427
2007
170,877
56,517
229,322
53,515 124,540
4,498
129,107
4,753
6,265 779,394
2008
177,613
64,935
229,338
54,879 125,013
4,780
128,727
8,953
6,402 800,640
Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts Powervision
* EU-25 before January 2007; EU-15 before May 2005
* EU-25 before January 2007; EU-15 before May 2005
2. The EU Energy Mix
19
PURE POWER 2009
3.
The
Current
Status of
Wind Power
Photo:
EWEA
/Kirk
eterp
PURE POWER 2009
20
27.1 GW of wind power capacity was installed globally
during 2008, reaching a total of 121 GW by the end
of the year (Figure 3.1). The global annual market for
wind turbines increased by 37% in 2008, following
growth of 31% in both 2006 and 2007, and 40% in
2005 (Figure 3.2). Over the past four years, the annual
global market for wind turbines has more than tripled
from 8.3 GW in 2004 to 27.1 GW in 2008. The total
installed wind power capacity increased from 48 GW
to 121 GW over the same period.
The development of wind and nuclear energy
All around the world, wind energy is developing rapidly,
and following the same development as conventional
power sources in the past. Figure 3.3 compares the
global development of wind energy over the 18 years
from 1991 to 2008 with the development of nuclear
power capacity from a similar stage of development â
over the 18 years from 1961 to 1978.
Despite much hype about a global nuclear energy
revival there is little market evidence to support it.
In the last ten years - from 1999 to 2008 - a total of
111.3 GW of wind power capacity was built globally,
compared to 27.1 GW of nuclear capacity (see Figure
3.4). As much wind energy capacity was installed
globally in 2008 as the amount of nuclear capacity
installed in the whole of the last decade (27.1 GW).
GLOBAL CUMULATIVE WIND ENERGY CAPACITY (1990-2008)
FIGURE 3.1
Source: EWEA and GWEC
GW
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008
n
Rest of World 1.304 1.354 1.477 1.590 1.848 2.324 2.628 2.883 3.700 3.916 4.470 7.133 8.150 10.940 13.248 18.591 26.102 37.285
55.856
n
EU
0.439 0.629 0.844 1.211 1.683 2.497 3.476 4.753 6.453 9.678 12.887 17.315 23.098 28.491 34.372 40.500 48.031 56.517
64.935
TOTAL
1.743 1.983 2.321 2.801 3.531 4.821 6.104 7.636 10.153 13.594 17.357 24.448 31.248 39.431 47.620 59.091 74.133 93.802
120.791
3. The Current Status of Wind Power
21
PURE POWER 2009
GLOBAL ANNUAL WIND ENERGY CAPACITY (1990-2008)
FIGURE 3.2
Source: EWEA and GWEC
GW
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
n
Rest of World
50
123
113
258
476
304
255
817
216
554 2,663 1,017 2,790 2,415 5,343 7,512 11,221
18,571
n
EU
190
215
367
472
814
979 1,277
1,700 3,225 3,209 4,428 5,913 5,462 5,838 6,204 7,592 8,535
8,484
TOTAL
240
338
480
730 1,290 1,283 1,532
2,517 3,441 3,763 7,091 6,930 8,252 8,254 11,547 15,103 19,756
27,056
GLOBAL WIND DEVELOPMENT (1991-2008) COMPARED TO NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT (1961-1978)
FIGURE 3.3
Source: EWEA and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Annual
GW
Total
GW
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual Wind GW
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.3
1.3
1.5
2.5
3.4
3.8
7.1
6.9
8.3
8.3
11.5
15.1
19.8
27.1
Annual Nuclear GW
0.0
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.7
1.4
2.1
1.1
3.7
3.5
7.8
8.5
12.0
16.9
9.8
13.5
12.9
15.5
Total Wind GW
2.0
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.8
6.1
7.6
10.2
13.6
17.4
24.4
31.2
39.4
47.6
59.1
74.1
93.8
120.8
Total Nuclear GW
0.9
1.8
2.3
3.2
4.0
6.3
8.3
9.3
13.0
19.0
26.6
35.3
46.0
63.3
72.7
86.2
98.7
114.2
PURE POWER 2009
22
In Europe, the European Commissionâs 1997 White
Paper target of 40 GW of wind power capacity by 2010
in the EU was reached in 2005, five years ahead of time.
By the end of 2008, there was 64.9 GW of wind power
capacity installed in the EU-27, of which 63.9 GW
was in the EU-15. In the scenario that EWEA drew
up in October 2003
4
, we expected 61.1 GW to be
installed in the EU-15 by the end of 2008. Thus the
total capacity was underestimated by 2.8 GW over the
six year period. In 2003, EWEA expected total annual
installations in 2008 to be 6.8 GW, whereas the actual
market was significantly higher at 8.1 GW in the EU-15
(8.5 GW in the EU-27).
In the EU, cumulative installed wind power capacity
has increased by an average of 26% year on year over
the past decade, from 6.5 GW in 1998 to 64.9 GW in
2008. In terms of annual installations, the EU market
for wind turbines has grown by an average of 17%
annually in the past decade, from 1.7 GW in 1998 to
8.5 GW in 2008.
Wind energy and the EU Member States
Germany (24 GW) and Spain (17 GW) continue to be
Europeâs undisputed leaders in terms of total installed
wind energy capacity (Table 3.1). 63% of the EUâs
installed capacity is located in the two countries. In
2008, three large countries â Italy (3.7 GW), France
(3.4 GW) and the UK (3.2 GW) - overtook Denmark
(3.2 GW â the third wind energy pioneer country with
Germany and Spain) in total capacity.
NEW WIND ENERGY AND NUCLEAR CAPACITY INSTALLED (1999-2008)
FIGURE 3.4
GW
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total
Nuclear
2.8
3.1
2.7
4.9
1.6
4.8
3.8
1.5
1.9
0
27.1 GW
Wind
3.4
3.8
6.5
7.3
8.2
8.2
11.5
15.2
20.1
27.1
111.3 GW
Source: EWEA and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
4
Source: EWEA, 2003a.
3. The Current Status of Wind Power
23
PURE POWER 2009
In 2008, Germany (1.665 GW) installed marginally
more wind power than Spain (1.609 GW). They were
followed by Italy, (1.010 GW), France (0.950 GW)
and the UK (0.836 GW). Ten countries â Germany,
Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Denmark, Portugal, the
Netherlands, Sweden and Ireland â now have more
than 1 GW installed each.
ToTal insTalled wind power capaciTy in The eU-27
(2005-2008) (Mw)
Table 3.1
Country
2005
2006
2007
2008
Austria
819
965
982
995
Belgium
167
194
287
384
Bulgaria
10
36
57
158
Cyprus
-
-
-
-
CzechRepublic
28
54
116
150
Denmark
3,128
3,136
3,125
3,180
Estonia
32
32
59
78
Finland
82
86
110
143
France
757
1,567
2,454
3,404
Germany
18,415 20,622 22,247
23,903
Greece
573
746
871
985
Hungary
17
61
65
127
Ireland
496
746
795
1,002
Italy
1,718
2,123
2,726
3,736
Latvia
27
27
27
27
Lithuania
6
48
51
54
Luxembourg
35
35
35
35
Malta
-
-
-
-
Netherlands
1,219
1,558
1,747
2,225
Poland
83
153
276
472
Portugal
1,022
1,716
2,150
2,862
Romania
2
3
8
10
Slovakia
5
5
5
3
Slovenia
-
-
-
-
Spain
10,028 11,623 15,131
16,740
Sweden
510
571
788
1,021
UK
1,332
1,962
2,406
3,241
EU total
40,500 48,031 56,517
64,935
Source: EWEA
MeMber sTaTe MarkeT shares for new
capaciTy (2008)
(Total8,484Mw)
FIGUre 3.5
Germany
23,903
Spain
16,740
Italy
3,736
France
3,404
UK
3,241
Denmark
3,180
Portugal
2,862
Netherlands
2,225
Sweden
1,021
Ireland
1,002
Other
3,491
MeMber sTaTe MarkeT shares for ToTal
capaciTy (as of end 2008)
(Total64,935Mw)
FIGUre 3.6
Germany
1,665
Poland
196
Other
563
Spain
1,609
Italy
1,010
France
950
UK
836
Portugal
712
Netherlands
500
Sweden
236
Ireland
208
Other
Greece
114Mw
Belgium
104Mw
Bulgaria
101Mw
Denmark
77Mw
Hungary
62Mw
CzechRepublic
34Mw
Finland
33Mw
Estonia
20Mw
Austria
14Mw
Lithuania
3Mw
Romania
2Mw
Cyprus,Latvia,Luxembourg,Malta,SloveniaandSlovakia
installednocapacityin2008.
Other
Austria
995Mw
Greece
985Mw
Poland
472Mw
Belgium
384Mw
Bulgaria
158Mw
CzechRepublic
150Mw
Finland
143Mw
Hungary
127Mw
Estonia
78Mw
Lithuania
54Mw
Luxembourg
35Mw
Latvia
27Mw
Romania
10Mw
Slovakia
3Mw
Cyprus
0Mw
Malta
0Mw
Slovenia
0Mw
Source: EWEA
Source: EWEA
PURE POWER 2009
24
Germany, Spain and Denmark â the three pioneering
countries of wind power, as mentioned above - are
home to 67.5% of the installed wind power capacity
in the EU. However, their share of annual installa-
tions has dropped from 89% in 2002 to 39% in 2008
(Figure 3.8). Germany and Spain continue to attract
the majority of investments, but strong market growth
is taking place in other European countries. In 2002,
0.679 GW of European wind power capacity was
installed outside Germany, Spain and Denmark. In
2008, the figure was 5.133 GW â more than a seven-
fold increase. A second wave of European countries
is investing in wind power, partly as a result of the EU
Renewable Electricity Directive passed in 2001.
TOP 10 EU WIND ENERGY MARKETS (2005-2008)
FIGURE 3.7
Source: EWEA
MW
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Ger
man
y
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Por
tugal
Nether
lands
Sw
eden
Ireland
Poland
n
2005
n
2006
n
2007
n
2008
GERMANY, SPAIN AND DENMARKâS SHARE OF THE EU MARKET (2002-2008)
FIGURE 3.8
Source: EWEA
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
n
Denmark, Germany, Spain
n
Rest of EU
679
1,190
1,727
2,608
3,752
3,357
5,133
5,234
4,272
4,112
3,595
3,840
5,178
3,351
3. The Current Status of Wind Power
25
PURE POWER 2009
The growth of offshore wind
With 1.5 GW by the end of 2008, offshore accounted
for 2.3% of installed EU wind energy capacity (up from
1.9% in 2007) and 4.3% of annual capacity. 366 MW
of offshore capacity was installed during 2008, beating
the previous record of 259 MW installed in 2003.
In 2008 the UK, with 591 MW of total offshore
capacity, overtook Denmark, the former offshore front-
runner with 409 MW. Both the UK and the Netherlands
installed more than 100 MW during 2008. By the end
of the year, there were nine countries, all in Europe,
with operating offshore wind farms.
ANNUAL AND CUMULATIVE INSTALLED EU OFFSHORE WIND CAPACITY (1991-2008)
FIGURE 3.9
Source: EWEA
Source: EWEA
MW
MW
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Annual
5
0
0
2
5
17
0
3
0
4
51
170
259
90
90
201
210
366
Cumulative
5
5
5
7
12
29
29
32
32
35
86
256
515
605
695
895 1,105
1,471
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
OFFSHORE WIND POWER IN EUROPE (2008)
TABLE 3.2
Installed in
2008
Total by end
2008
UK
187
591
Denmark
0
409
Netherlands
120
247
Sweden
0
133
Belgium
30
30
Ireland
0
25
Finland
24
24
Germany
5
12
Italy*
0
0
Total
366
1,471
* As of the end of 2008 Italy had one offshore test turbine with a capacity of
0.08 MW, but it was not grid connected.
PURE POWER 2009
26
Wind energy capacity compared to country size
and population
The total wind power capacity installed at the end
of 2008 will produce 4.1% of the EU-27âs electricity
demand in a normal wind year. Wind power in Denmark
covers more than 20% of its total electricity consump-
tion, by far the largest share of any country in the world.
Five EU countries - Denmark, Spain, Portugal, Ireland,
and Germany â have more than 5% of their electricity
demand produced by wind energy
5
(Figure 3.10).
By the end of 2008, 133 kW of wind energy capacity
was installed for every 1,000 people in the EU â up from
116 kW at the end of 2007 (Figure 3.11). Denmark tops
the list with 589 kW/1,000 people followed by Spain
(405 kW) and Germany (290 kW). If all EU countries
had the same amount of installed wind power capacity
per capita as Spain, the EU total would be 198 GW
instead of the end 2008 figure of 65 GW. If all EU coun-
tries had the same amount of capacity per capita as
Denmark, total EU installations would be 287 GW.
There are 14 MW of wind power capacity installed
per 1,000 km
2
of land area in the EU (Figure 3.12).
Not surprisingly, being a small country, wind power
density is highest in Denmark, but Germany comes a
close second. The Netherlands has the third highest
turbine density in the EU. It is interesting that Spainâs
wind power density is less than half that of Germany,
WIND POWERâS SHARE OF NATIONAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND (END 2008)
FIGURE 3.10
Source: EWEA and Eurostat
Denmark
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
Germany
Netherlands
EU-27
Greece
Austria
UK
Italy
Estonia
France
Sweden
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Belgium
Luxembourg
Latvia
Poland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Finland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Malta
Cyprus
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
20.3%
12.3%
11.4%
9.3%
6.9%
4.2%
4.1%
3.7%
2.9%
2.3%
2.2%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5
Source: Eurostat and EWEA. The national wind power shares are calculated by taking the electricity that the capacity installed by the
end of 2008 will produce in a normal wind year and dividing it by the actual 2007 electricity demand, which is the latest available
figure from Eurostat. Average capacity factors are assumed by EWEA for each country. The statistical methodology used differs from
the methodology otherwise used throughout this report. The figures may differ from the shares reported by national wind energy
associations due to differences in methodology.
3. The Current Status of Wind Power
27
PURE POWER 2009
indicating a large remaining potential - at least from a
visual perspective. Portugal and Ireland are also above
the EU average.
Many geographically large Member States, such as
France, the UK, Sweden, Finland, Poland and Italy, still
have very low wind power densities compared to the
first-mover countries. If France had the same wind
power density as Denmark, there would be 40 GW
of wind power capacity installed in France (3.4 GW
was operating by end 2008); the UK would also have
40 GW (3.2 GW by end 2008), Sweden would have
33 GW (1 GW by end 2008), Finland 25 GW (0.1 GW
by end 2008), Poland 23 GW (0.5 GW by end 2008)
and Italy 22 GW (3.7 GW by end 2008).
If the eight geographically largest Member States had
a âcapacity-densityâ equivalent to that of Denmark,
they would have a combined installed wind power
capacity of 250 GW. This is equal to EWEAâs target
for onshore wind energy capacity in the EU by 2030.
If all 27 EU Member States had the same capacity-
density as Denmark, it would make a total of 341 GW,
compared with 65 GW at the end of 2008.
Avoiding CO
2
with wind energy
The total installed capacity of wind power by the end of
2008 will, in an average wind year, avoid the emission
of 91 Megatonnes (Mt) of CO
2
. Figure 3.13 shows
the CO
2
avoided due to turbines installed by end
kW OF WIND ENERGY CAPACITY PER 1,000 PEOPLE (END 2008)
FIGURE 3.11
Source: EWEA
Denmark
Spain
Germany
Portugal
Ireland
Netherlands
EU-27
Austria
Sweden
Greece
Luxembourg
Italy
Estonia
France
UK
Belgium
Finland
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Latvia
Slovakia
Romania
Slovenia
Malta
Cyprus
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
589
405
290
270
244
137
133
121
113
89
70
64
60
55
54
37
28
22
16
15
13
12
12
1
0
0
0
0
kW
PURE POWER 2009
28
2008. It presents the avoided CO
2
as a percentage
of the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted
by Member States in 1990, the base-year for most
countriesâ emissions reductions targets in the Kyoto
Protocol. The figures assume that 1 TWh of wind
power displaces 0.667 Mt of CO
2
â based on the
average energy mix in the EU. (See Chapter 10 âCO
2
reductions from wind powerâ for a detailed explanation
of the methodology).
However, caution must be applied when interpreting the
results since 1 TWh of wind power avoids far more CO
2
in - for example â Poland, where the share of coal power
production is much higher than the EU average, and
avoids less in France, for example, where wind power
mainly replaces gas at the intermediate load.
Overall, the wind power capacity installed by the end
of 2008 avoids the emission of 91 Mt of CO
2
. Of this,
89.8 Mt are avoided in the EU-15 countries, which have
a shared obligation under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce
their GHG emissions by 8% compared to 1990 levels.
The 8% reduction compared to 1990 equals approxi-
mately 340 Mt of CO
2
equivalents. The new Member
States have individual targets (excluding Malta and
Cyprus which have no obligation). The wind power
installed in the EU-15 by the end of 2008 reduces CO
2
emissions by 2.1% of 1990 GHG emissions, equal to
27% of the blocâs Kyoto Protocol obligation.
MW of Wind energy capacity per 1,000 kM
2
(end 2008)
FIGUrE 3.12
Source: EWEA
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
EU-27
Luxembourg
UK
Belgium
Italy
Austria
Greece
France
Sweden
CzechRepublic
Estonia
Poland
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Finland
Latvia
Slovakia
Romania
Slovenia
Malta
Cyprus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
73.8
14.3
14.0
13.5
12.6
7.5
6.2
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.1
0
0
0
0
MW
67.0
53.6
33.2
31.0
12.4
11.9
3. The Current Status of Wind Power
13.2
29
PURE POWER 2009
CO
2
AVOIDED FROM WIND ENERGY AS A PERCENTAGE OF 1990 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (2008)
FIGURE 3.13
Source: EWEA and European Environment Agency (EEA)
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Ireland
Germany
Sweden
Total EU-15
Austria
EU-27
Netherlands
Greece
Italy
France
UK
Belgium
Luxembourg
Finland
Estonia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Czech Republic
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Malta
Cyprus
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
8.5%
2.2%
2.1%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
%
7.5%
7.0%
3.3%
2.4%
1.6%
1.6%
Summary of wind energy in the EU-27 in 2008
âĸ 65 GW installed capacity: 63.5 GW onshore and 1.5 GW offshore
âĸ Annual installations of 8.5 GW: 8.1 GW onshore (95%) and 0.4 GW offshore (5%)
âĸ Annual investments of âŦ11 billion: âŦ10.1 onshore and âŦ0.9 billion offshore
âĸ Meeting 4% of EU electricity demand
âĸ 36% of all new electricity generating capacity in the EU (Total 2008: 23.9 GW)
âĸ 8% of total electricity generating capacity in the EU (Total end 2008: 801 GW)
âĸ Producing 137 TWh: 132 TWh onshore and 5 TWh offshore, equivalent to the consumption of 34 million
average EU households
âĸ Avoiding 91 Mt CO
2
annually, equal to 27% of the EU-15âs Kyoto obligation
âĸ Avoiding âŦ2.3 billion
6
of CO
2
cost annually
âĸ Avoided fuel cost of âŦ6.5 billion
6
Assuming âŦ25/tCO
2
.
PURE POWER 2009
30
4.
The Evolution
of Wind Energy
Targets
Photo:
RES/Marsanne
31
PURE POWER 2009
The 1997 European Commission White Paper on
Renewable Sources of Energy set the goal of doubling
the share of renewable energy in the EUâs energy
mix from 6% to 12% by 2010. It included a target of
40 GW for wind power in the EU by 2010, which would
produce 80 TWh of power and save 72 Mt of CO
2
. The
40 GW target was reached in 2005. Another target
set out in the White Paper was to increase the share
of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E)
from 337 TWh in 1995 to 675 TWh in 2010.
By the end of 2008, there was 65 GW of wind power
capacity installed in the EU, producing 137 TWh of
electricity â 40% of the European Commission White
Paper target for 2010. EWEA expects wind energy to
produce 179 TWh by 2010, meeting 53% of the 2010
White Paper target for all renewable electricity.
The European Commissionâs White Paper was
followed by Directive 2001/77/EC on the Promotion
of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources. When
adopted in 2001, it was the most important piece
of legislation ever introduced for renewables, and
led the then 15 Member States to develop political
frameworks and financial instruments to encourage
investment in renewables and help overcome
administrative barriers and grid access barriers.
The directive sets national indicative targets for
the contribution of electricity from renewables as a
percentage of gross electricity consumption by 2010.
The overall goal set out in the directive is to increase
the share of electricity coming from renewables from
14% in 1997 to 22% in 2010. With the enlargement,
the overall EU target was adjusted to 21% of electricity
consumption.
The 40 GW goal from the European Commissionâs
White Paper naturally formed EWEAâs target in 1997,
but three years later, due to strong development in the
German, Spanish and Danish wind energy markets,
EWEA increased its target by 50% to 60 GW by 2010
and 150 GW by 2020 (Table 4.1). In 2003, EWEA
once again increased its target, this time by 25%
to 75 GW by 2010 and 180 GW in 2020. In 2007,
due to the expansion of the EU with ten new Member
States, EWEA increased its target for 2010 to 80 GW,
while maintaining its 2020 target of 180,000 MW and
setting a target of 300 GW by 2030.
Following the adoption of the EUâs 2009 Renewable
Energy Directive, which aims to increase the share of
electricity from renewables from 15% in 2005 to 34%
in 2020, EWEA in March 2009 again raised its 2020
target for wind energy â this time to 230 GW.
EWEA now expects 82.5 GW of wind power capacity
to be operating in the EU by the end of 2010 and is
increasing its 2030 target from 300 GW to 400 GW,
including 150 GW offshore.
Baseline scenarios from the International Energy
Agency (IEA) and the European Commission
Both the European Commission and the International
Energy Agency publish baseline scenarios for
the development of various electricity generation
technologies, including wind energy (see Table 4.1).
In 1996, one year before adopting its White Paper
target of 40 GW of wind power by 2010, the European
Commission estimated that 8 GW would be installed
by 2010 in the EU. The 8 GW was reached, three years
later, in 1999. The Commissionâs target for 2020 was
set at 12.3 GW and reached, two decades ahead of
schedule, in 2000.
Since 1996, the European Commission has changed
its baseline scenario five times. Over the ten year
period between 1996 and 2006, its targets for wind
energy in 2010 and 2020 gradually increased tenfold
- from 8 GW to 79 GW (for 2010) and from 12 GW
to 129 GW (for 2020). EWEAâs 2010 target for wind
energy doubled from 40 GW (in 1997) to 80 GW (in
2006) during the same period.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also makes
baseline scenarios for the development of wind
power. In 2002 the IEA estimated that 33 GW would
be installed in Europe in 2010, 57 GW by 2020 and
71 GW by 2030. Two years later, in 2004, it doubled
its forecast for wind energy to 66 GW in 2010 and
more than doubled its 2020 and 2030 Business
As Usual scenario for wind in the EU to 131 GW in
2020 and 170 GW in 2030. In 2006, the IEA again
increased its 2030 target for wind power in the EU
to 217 GW (its alternative policy scenario assumes
227 GW). In 2008, the IEA increased its wind energy
targets once again
7
.
7
Source: IEA, 2008a.
PURE POWER 2009
32
WIND BASELINE SCENARIOS FOR EU-27 FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
8
, THE IEA
9
AND EWEA
(GW)
TABLE 4.1
1995
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
European Commission scenarios
EC 1996
4
6
8
10
12
EC 1999
15
23
47
EC 2003
70
95
120
EC 2004
73
104
135
EC 2006
79
104
129
166
185
EC 2008
71
92
120
137
146
IEA scenarios
IEA 2002
33
57
71
IEA 2004
66
131
170
IEA 2006
68
106
150
217
IEA 2008
140
183
211
232
EWEA targets
EWEA 1997
40
EWEA 2000
60
150
EWEA 2003
75
180
EWEA 2007
80
125
180
240
300
EWEA 2009
82.5
143
230
324
400
Actual market
3
13
41
65
Source: EC, IEA and EWEA
WIND BASELINE SCENARIOS FOR EU-27 FROM THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION, THE IEA AND EWEA (2008-2030)
(GW)
FIGURE 4.1
Source: EC, IEA and EWEA
GW
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
n
EC 2008
64.9
71.3
92.2
120.4
137.2
145.9
n
IEA 2008
64.9
N/A
140
183
211
232
n
EWEA 2009
64.9
82.6
142.9
230
323.5
400
8
Source: EC, 2008a.
9
Source: IEA, 2008a.
4. The Evolution of Wind Energy Targets
33
PURE POWER 2009
AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN WIND ENERGY CAPACITY IN THE EU-27 - THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION, THE IEA AND EWEA
COMPARED
FIGURE 4.2
Source: IEA, EC and EWEA
GW
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2009-2015
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
n
EC 2007
3.9
5.6
3.4
1.7
n
IEA 2008
10.7
8.6
5.6
4.2
n
EWEA 2009
11.1
17.4
18.7
15.3
2008: 8.5 GW
In 2008, the European Commission, rather surprisingly,
reduced its wind energy targets for the first time ever
10
.
It lowered its 2010 target by 10% from 79 GW to
71 GW and its 2015 forecast by 12% from 104 GW
to 92 GW. The current Commission Baseline scenario
implies that the annual market for wind power would
fall by an astonishing 62% from 8.5 GW in 2008 to
3.2 GW in 2009 and 2010. In contrast, EWEA expects
8.6 GW to be installed during 2009.
It is unclear what led the European Commission to
reduce its targets for wind energy in 2008. In the
same year, the IEA dramatically increased its 2015
forecast by 24% from 106 GW to 140 GW, in line with
EWEAâs 2015 target of 143 GW.
Similarly, the Commission lowered its 2020 wind
energy target from 129 GW to 120 GW, while the
IEA increased its target from 150 GW to 183 GW
(exceeding EWEAâs then 2020 target of 180 GW). For
2030, the European Commission reduced its wind
energy target by a massive 39 GW â reducing it by 21%
from an already very low level of 185 GW to 146 GW
- while the IEA raised its target 28% from 170 GW to
217 GW (see Table 4.1).
It is clear that there is a major discrepancy between
the European Commission and the IEAâs views on the
future of wind energy in Europe. The IEA says there
will be 143 GW of wind energy capacity installed by
2015 â seven years from now - while the European
Commission believes this amount will only be reached
in 2030.
The European Commission figures suggest that the
annual growth in wind energy capacity in the EU will
drop by 46% as of 2009 - from 8.5 GW in 2008 to an
average of 3.9 GW per year from 2009 to 2015 (see
Figure 4.2). In contrast, the IEA expects the annual
increase in capacity to average 10.7 GW while EWEA
expects 11.1 GW. From 2021 to 2030, the European
Commission expects wind energy to increase by an
average of 2.6 GW per year.
10
Source: EC, 2008a.
PURE POWER 2009
34
The European Commission scenario is obtained
with the PRIMES energy model by the E3M Lab at
the National Technical University of Athens. It would
appear from the wind energy scenarios described
above that the E3M Labâs model is more than a little
unreliable and has been so since its introduction in
1996.
Unfortunately, it is not only wind energy that the
PRIMES model fails to predict. In its 2008 scenario,
the European Commissionâs PRIMES model even
suggests that EU investments in âother renewablesâ
(that is, renewables excluding biomass and wind) will
be negative in 2009 and 2010 (see Figure 4.3). It
predicts that more than 6 GW of âother renewablesâ
will be taken off the grid in 2009 and 2010. In sharp
contrast to this, 4.8 GW of âother renewablesâ was
installed in 2008 alone.
Over the years, the E3M Lab â and thereby the European
Commission â have consistently overestimated fossil
fuel and nuclear energyâs future development, while
grossly underestimating the development of renewable
energy technologies. The following developments in
the EU power sector are implied by the latest (2008)
scenario from the European Commissionâs PRIMES
energy model:
âĸ In 2009-2010, investment in new coal capacity
will increase by 745% and investment in âother
renewablesâ will decrease by 163% compared to
2008.
âĸ In the decade 2011-2020, annual investment in coal
will be 625% higher than annually in 2001-2008
and annual investments in nuclear capacity will be
223% higher, while annual investments in âother
renewablesâ will be 50% lower and wind energy 15%
lower than annually in the period 2001-2008.
âĸ For the ten years from 2021 to the end of 2030, the
European Commissionâs PRIMES model assumes
that the EU will build 7.6 GW of new coal capacity
annually, 6.9 GW of gas, 6.2 GW of wind, 4.8 GW
of nuclear (five new nuclear plants per year) and
1.9 GW of biomass. The model assumes that
a meagre 0.9 GW of âother renewablesâ will be
built per year over the decade â down from actual
installations of 4.8 GW in 2008.
The European Commission claims that its baseline
scenario âprojects that oil and gas prices will remain at
a rather high levelâ. However, its oil price assumption
for 2015 is almost 50% lower than that of the IEA. The
European Commission assumes an oil price in 2010 of
$54.5/barrel and $61.1/barrel in 2020 (in $
2005
). In its
2008 scenario, the IEA assumes an oil price of $100 in
2015 and $110 in 2020 (in $
2007
). By the end of October
2009, Nymex Crude was trading at $80/barrel.
EWEA strongly recommends that the European
Commission revise its PRIMES energy model. Over
the past 12 years, the European Commission has
allowed the E3M Lab to feed Member States and the
general public with misleading information about the
future of European energy. It is clear that the PRIMES
scenarios are consistently marginalising renewable
energy sources, while overestimating fossil fuels and
nuclear energy. The model was peer reviewed by the
European Commission back in 1997-1998. A new
review is urgently needed.
4. The Evolution of Wind Energy Targets
35
PURE POWER 2009
AVERAGE ANNUAL CAPACITY ADDITIONS EU 2009-2030 ACCORDING TO THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2008
FIGURE 4.3
(GW/year)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2001-2008
2008
2009-2010
2011-2020
2021-2030
n
Nuclear
0.162
0.060
0.550
0.525
4.840
n
Biomass
0.237
0.296
5.051
1.620
1.900
n
Coal
1.002
0.762
6.441
7.270
7.850
n
Oil
0.787
2.495
0.851
0.400
1.400
n
Other renewables
1.745
4.823
-3.030
0.880
0.940
n
Gas
10.761
6.932
12.256
7.380
6.930
n
Wind
6.557
8.484
3.372
5.550
6.230
Source: 2001-2008: EWEA and Platts Powervision; 2009-2030: European Energy and Transport â Trends to 2030, update 2007; European Commission 2008.
PURE POWER 2009
36
5.
Three Short-Term
Predictions for the
Development of the
EU Wind Power Market
(2009-2013)
Photo:
GWEC
37
PURE POWER 2009
As illustrated in the previous chapter, the European
Commissionâs baseline scenarios using its PRIMES
energy model have consistently underestimated the
development of wind energy and other renewable
energy technologies. Its latest (2008) projection for
wind energy forecasts an average annual increase
in wind energy capacity for the period from 2009 to
2015 of 3.9 GW, compared to the latest annual wind
power installation in 2008 of 8.5 GW.
The Commissionâs scenarios are clearly lower
than EWEAâs short-term forecast, which assumes
an average annual market from 2009 to 2015 of
11.1 GW. As was also illustrated in the previous
chapter, EWEA has always been rather conservative
in setting targets and has, as a consequence, found
it necessary to raise its targets four times since
2000. As depicted in Figure 5.1, EWEAâs new scenario
is significantly below those of market analysts BTM
Consult
11
and MAKE Consulting
12
for every year up to
2013. The sole exception is 2009, for which MAKE
Consultingâs prediction is below EWEAâs. For example,
while EWEA expects annual installations of 12.5 GW
in 2013, MAKE Consulting predicts 15.3 GW and BTM
Consult forecasts 18.4 GW in Europe.
It is evident that EWEA â which expects a total of
66.3 GW to be installed in the European Union over
the next five years - is more conservative than the
three independent market analysts. Over the five
year period, MAKE Consulting expects 75.9 GW to be
installed, BTM Consult expects 91.9 GW and EER
13
expects 66.5 GW to be installed.
Although EWEA is quite certain about the outlook for
2009, some uncertainty about the 2010 market is
inevitable given the current turmoil in global financial
markets and constrained liquidity in the capital markets.
ANNUAL MARKET FORECASTS (2009-2013) EWEA, EER, MAKE CONSULTING AND BTM CONSULT COMPARED
FIGURE 5.1
MW
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2008 (actual)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
n
EWEA
8,484
8,630
9,199
11,001
11,629
12,469
13,394
66,323
n
EER 2009*
8,000
9,700
10,800
12,200
12,700
13,100
66,500
n
Make 2009**
8,280
9,600
11,445
13,540
15,260
17,825
75,950
n
BTM 2009***
11,075
12,805
14,825
16,655
18,400
18,150
91,910
Sources: EWEA, EER, Make Consult and BTM Consult
*
Wind Turbine Supply Chain Strategies: 2009-2020; Emerging Energy Research, July 2009 (figures are for all Europe).
** The Wind Forecast; Market Outlook 2009; MAKE Consulting, September 2009.
*** Global Wind Power Development; A 2030 Scenario; BTM Consult October 2009.
11
Source: BTM, 2009a.
12
Source: MAKE, 2009a.
13
Source: EER, 2009a.
PURE POWER 2009
38
6.
EWEAâs 2020 Target
Photo:
Siemens
39
PURE POWER 2009
The December 2008 agreement on the 2009
Renewable Energy Directive is the main reason EWEA
increased its targets for 2020 in March 2009 and
is now increasing its 2030 target from 300 GW to
400 GW. The directive sets mandatory and binding
national targets for the share of renewable energy
in each of the 27 EU Member States in 2020 (see
Figure 6.1). It is by far the most significant legisla-
tive effort to promote renewable energy, including wind
power, anywhere in the world.
The 2009 Renewable Energy Directive
14
(âthe direc-
tiveâ) also sets out indicative trajectories for renewable
energy in each Member State for each of the years
2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. This is to ensure
that efforts are not pushed towards the end of the
target period.
The directive sets out to increase the overall share
of renewable energy from 8.6% in 2005 to 20% in
2020 (see Figure 6.1). For electricity, the European
Commission expects that the share of renewable
energy will need to increase from 15% to 34% in 2020.
The European Commission expects wind energy to
be supplying 12% of the EUâs electricity demand by
2020
15
, equivalent to around 180 GW of wind energy
capacity. This corresponds to EWEAâs previous target
of 180 GW, including 35 GW offshore. To reach the
180 GW and the 12% of electricity, wind energy
capacity would need to increase by an average of
9.6 GW annually over the next 12 years. Given the
increase of 8.5 GW in 2008, and that wind energy is
the most affordable of the renewable energy technolo-
gies in most Member States, it is clear that 180 GW
of wind energy in the EU will be achieved before 2020.
Assuming the European Commissionâs âNew Energy
Policyâ projections
16
for electricity demand in 2020,
wind energy would meet 16.9% of EU electricity
demand in 2020, including 4.3% of overall demand
being met by offshore wind. Using the European
Commissionâs baseline scenario
17
for electricity
demand, wind energyâs share would be 14.3% (3.6%
offshore) in 2020.
NATIONAL OVERALL TARGETS FOR THE SHARE OF ENERGY FROM RENEWABLES IN FINAL CONSUMPTION (2020)
FIGURE 6.1
%
100
75
50
25
0
Source: European Commission 2009 Renewable Energy Directive
n
2020 target
n
Share of energy from renewables in 2005
Belgium
Bulg
aria
Czech
Rep.
Denmark
Ger
man
y
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cypr
us
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hung
ar
y
Malta
Nether
lands
Austria
Poland
Por
tug
al
Romania
Slo
venia
Slo
vak
Republic
Finland
Sw
eden
UK
14
Source: EU, 2009a.
15
Source: EC, 2007a.
16
Source: EC, 2008c.
17
Source: EC, 2008a.
20
PURE POWER 2009
40
Figure 6.2 shows the annual market for wind power
up to 2020, according to EWEAâs new 2020 targets.
In 2010, the market for offshore wind is expected to
exceed 1 GW per year for the first time ever. During
the second half of the next decade, an increasing
amount of existing wind power capacity will be decom-
missioned. The market for replacement is expected
to increase from 1 GW in 2015 to 4.2 GW in 2020.
By 2020, 28% of the annual market for new wind
power capacity will be offshore. Annual investment in
wind power will increase from âŦ11 billion in 2008 to
âŦ23.5 billion in 2020 (see Chapter 12). Annual invest-
ment in offshore wind will increase from âŦ900 million
in 2008 to âŦ8.8 billion in 2020, equal to 37% of total
investment.
Figure 6.3 shows the development of total installed
capacity in the EU according to EWEAâs new targets.
In addition to the 2020 target increase, the target for
2010 has been increased from 80 GW to 82.6 GW,
and for 2015 we expect 143 GW, compared to 125 GW
previously. Offshore wind energyâs share of total wind
power capacity will increase gradually from 2.3% in
2008 to 10.3% in 2015 and 17.4% in 2020.
The wind energy capacity installed by end 2008 will, in
a normal wind year, produce 137 TWh of electricity. If
the new scenarios are met, wind energy will produce
179 TWh in 2010, 335 TWh in 2015 and 582 TWh in
2020. Offshore wind energyâs share of EU wind power
production will increase from 3.9% in 2008 to over
25% in 2020.
RENEWABLESâ AND WINDâS SHARES IN THE EU
ENERGY MIX
TABLE 6.1
2005
2020
Renewable energy share*
8.6%
20%
Renewable electricity share*
15%
34%
Wind energy share**
2.5%
16.9%
of which offshore**
0.1%
4.3%
* 2009 Renewable Energy Directive / European Commission
** EWEA, assuming European Commissionâs âNew Energy Policyâ electricity
demand scenario
NEW ANNUAL EU WIND ENERGY CAPACITY (1991-2020)
FIGURE 6.2
GW
25
20
15
10
5
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
n
Offshore repowering
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
n
New offshore
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.9
n
Onshore repowering
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.2
n
New onshore
0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.6 5.1 5.7 6.0 7.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.5 13.1 13.6
TOTAL
0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5
0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.9 5.5 5.8 6.2 7.6
8.5 8.5 8.6 9.2 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.5 15.8 17.6 20.0 22.5 24.8
Source: EWEA
6. EWEAâs 2020 Target
41
PURE POWER 2009
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
n
Offshore repowering
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
n
New offshore
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.9
n
Onshore repowering
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.2
n
New onshore
0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.6 5.1 5.7 6.0 7.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.5 13.1 13.6
TOTAL
0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5
0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.9 5.5 5.8 6.2 7.6
8.5 8.5 8.6 9.2 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.4 14.5 15.8 17.6 20.0 22.5 24.8
CUMULATIVE EU WIND ENERGY CAPACITY (1990-2020)
FIGURE 6.3
GW
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
n
Offshore
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 3.0 4.5 6.5 8.9 11.6 14.7 18.3 22.4 27.2 33.1 40.0
n
Onshore
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.7 6.4 9.6 12.9 17.2 22.8 28.0 33.8 39.8 47.1 55.4 63.5 71.6 79.5 88.9 98.3 107.9 117.9 128.3 139.2 150.8 163.3 176.4 190.0
TOTAL
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.5 9.7 12.9 17.3 23.1 28.5 34.4 40.5 48.0 56.5 64.9 73.5 82.5 93.4 104.7 116.7 129.4 142.9 157.5 173.2 190.5 209.5 230.0
Source: EWEA
WIND POWER PRODUCTION IN THE EU (2000-2020)
FIGURE 6.4
TWh
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
n
Offshore
0.1
0.3
1.0
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.3
4.1
5.3
6.9
10.9
16.4
23.5
32.3
42.3
53.7
67.1
82.4
100.5
122.4
148.3
n
Onshore
22
32
44
55
67
80
96
115
132
150
168
189
211
233
257
281
308
336
367
399
433
TOTAL
23
32
44
57
70
83
100
119
137
157
179
205
234
265
299
335
375
419
467
522
582
Source: EWEA
PURE POWER 2009
42
Figure 6.5 shows the national breakdown of the
increase in wind power capacity, according to EWEAâs
230 GW scenario (see also Chapter 1). In total, wind
energy capacity in the EU will increase by 165 GW by
2020. Germany and Spain will continue to be in the
lead over the next 12 years, increasing their installed
capacities by 25.1 GW and 23.3 GW respectively â
making up 29% of the total EU increase. However, both
the UK, which will add 22.8 GW by 2020 and France,
which will add 19.6 GW are closing in on the leaders.
They are followed by Italy (11.8 GW), Poland (10 GW)
and Sweden (8 GW). It is a positive sign that the group
labelled âothersâ have more than 25% of the total
increase in capacity, indicating a wide deployment
of renewables throughout the European countries.
Today, 24 EU Member States have wind power. All 27
Member States are expected to have operating wind
farms by 2020.
EWEAâs 40 GW target for offshore wind energy by
2020 requires annual average market growth of 28%
- from 0.366 GW in 2008 to 6.915 GW in 2020 â
over the next 12 years. For comparison, the onshore
market grew by an annual average of 32% over the
12-year period - from 0.215 GW in 1992 to 5.749 GW
in 2004 (see Figure 6.6). EWEA is confident that the
development of onshore can be replicated at sea, but
it requires increased efforts, not least the construc-
tion of offshore power grids.
TOP 10 EU COUNTRIES FOR INCREASED WIND
POWER CAPACITY IN GW (2009-2020)
FIGURE 6.5
Other
26.8
Other
Increase in wind
energy capacity
2009-2020
% of EU-27
increase in wind
energy capacity
2009-2020
Portugal
4.6
2.8%
Belgium
3.5
2.1%
Romania
3.0
1.8%
Denmark
2.8
1.7%
Bulgaria
2.8
1.7%
Austria
2.5
1.5%
Finland
1.8
1.1%
Czech Republic
1.5
0.9%
Lithuania
0.9
0.6%
Hungary
0.8
0.5%
Slovakia
0.8
0.5%
Slovenia
0.5
0.3%
Estonia
0.4
0.3%
Luxembourg
0.3
0.2%
Cyprus
0.3
0.2%
Latvia
0.2
0.1%
Malta
0.1
0.1%
Source: EWEA
Ireland
5.0
Greece
5.5
Netherlands
7.3
Sweden
8.0
Poland
10.0
Italy
11.8
France
19.6
UK
22.8
Spain
23.3
Total EU-27:
165 GW
Germany
25.1
6. EWEAâs 2020 Target
43
PURE POWER 2009
Summary of wind energy in 2020, according to EWEA 2008 targets
âĸ 230 GW installed capacity: 190 GW onshore and 40 GW offshore
âĸ Annual installations of 24.8 GW: 17.9 GW (72%) onshore and 6.9 GW offshore (28%)
âĸ Annual investments of âŦ23.5 billion: âŦ14.7 onshore and âŦ8.8 billion offshore
âĸ Meeting 14-17% of EU electricity demand depending on total demand
âĸ 24% of total electricity generating capacity in the EU (Total end 2020: 951 GW)
âĸ Producing 582 TWh of electricity: 433 TWh onshore and 148 TWh offshore, equivalent to the consumption
of 131 million average EU households
âĸ Avoiding 333 Mt CO
2
annually
âĸ Avoided fuel cost of âŦ28 billion (assuming IEA forecast
18
: fuel cost equivalent to $110/bbl of oil)
âĸ Avoiding âŦ8.3 billion of CO
2
cost annually (assuming âŦ25/t CO
2
).
18
Source: IEA, 2008a.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
HISTORICAL ONSHORE GROWTH 1992-2004 COMPARED TO EWEAâS OFFSHORE PROjECTION 2008-2020
(MW)
FIGURE 6.6
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
MW
n
Onshore (1992-2004)
215
367
470
809
962
1,277
1,697
3,225
3,205
4,377
5,743
5,203
5,749
n
Offshore (2008-2020)
366
430
1,100
1,500
1,958
2,400
2,700
3,100
3,605
4,116
4,865
5,852
6,915
PURE POWER 2009
44
7.
EWEAâs 2030 Target
Photo:
EWEA/Flamee
45
PURE POWER 2009
By 2030, EWEA expects 400 GW of wind energy
capacity to be operating in the EU â 250 GW on land and
150 GW offshore. Figure 7.1 shows the development
in cumulative wind energy capacity according to these
new targets. The onshore development forms a classic
S-curve of early exponential growth being replaced by
saturation towards 2030. In terms of total capacity,
offshore is currently (end 2008) at the level of onshore
wind in 1994. By 2023, offshore capacity is expected to
reach the 63.5 GW of wind that was operating onshore
at the end of 2008. According to the target, offshore
wind is following onshore wind in Europe with a 15 year
time-lag. Given its larger potential, it can be expected
that total offshore wind capacity will exceed onshore
capacity at some point beyond 2030.
A comparison of EWEAâs scenarios up to 2030 with those
of independent analysts shows that EWEAâs targets are
conservative (see Chapter 5). As Figure 7.2 reveals,
EWEAâs scenario has 129 GW of installed capacity in
2014 compared with 133 GW for Emerging Energy
Research (EER) and 165 GW for BTM Consult. By 2020,
EWEA has 230 GW to BTMâs 312 GW, although EER has
a lower target of 221 GW. In 2030, EWEAâs 400 GW
target is well exceeded by BTMâs more ambitious 509
GW (although it is important to note that BTM is looking
at the whole of Europe, not just the EU-27). There is no
available 2030 figure from EER.
By 2030, wind power in the EU will produce
1,155 TWh â 592 TWh onshore and 563 TWh offshore
(Figure 7.3), meeting between 26% and 34% of EU
electricity demand, depending on the level of demand
(see the next chapter). Due to the higher capacity
factor of offshore turbines, the 150 GW offshore wind
capacity will produce almost as much power as the
250 GW onshore wind power in 2030. By 2020, the
production of offshore wind electricity (148 TWh) will
exceed the current electricity production from onshore
wind (132 TWh).
CUMULATIVE ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND IN THE EU (1990-2030)
FIGURE 7.1
GW
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
n
Onshore
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.7 6.4 9.6 13 17 23 28 34 40 47 55 63.5 72 80 89 98 108 118 128 139 151 163 176 190 202 213 223 231 237 241 244 246 248 250
n
Offshore
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1.5 1.9 3 5 6 9 12 15 18 22 27 33 40 48 56 66 76 87 98 110 123 136 150
Total
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.5 9.7 13 17 23 28 34 41 48 57 65 73 83 93 105 117 129 143 157 173 191 209 230 250 269 288 307 323 339 354 370 385 400
Source: EWEA
7. EWEAâs 2030 Target
PURE POWER 2009
46
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN EUROPE â EWEA, BTM AND EER SCENARIOS COMPARED
FIGURE 7.2
GW
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2014
2020
2030
n
EWEA*
n
BTM Consult**
n
Emerging Energy Research**
129
165
133
230
312
221
400
509
*
EU-27
** Europe
POWER PRODUCTION FROM ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND IN THE EU (2000-2030)
FIGURE 7.3
TWh
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: EWEA
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
n
Offshore
0
0
1
2
2
3
3
4
5
7
11
16
24
32
42
54
67
82 101 122 148 177 209 244 282 323 366 413 461 511 563
n
Onshore 22
32
44
55
67
80
96 115 132 150 168 189 211 233 257 281 308 336 367 399 433 462 489 514 535 551 562 571 579 586 592
Total
23
32
44
57
70
83 100 119 137 157 179 205 234 265 299 335 375 419 467 522 582 639 698 758 816 873 928 984 1,040 1,097 1,155
7. EWEAâs 2030 Target
47
PURE POWER 2009
Figure 7.4 shows that the market for onshore wind
power will increase up to 2020, then decline steadily
in the decade up to 2030, while an increasing share of
the onshore market will come from the replacement of
existing capacity. No significant decommissioning of
offshore wind turbines is envisaged until after 2030.
The market for offshore wind will continue to expand
beyond 2030, but the EWEA scenario conservatively
assumes that the overall wind market will be stable
from 2021 to 2030. The reason is the higher polit-
ical uncertainty once the 2009 EU Renewable Energy
Directive expires in 2020. Wind energy development
after 2020 will to a large degree be determined by the
price and availability of fuel and the price of CO
2
.
In total, the new EWEA targets suggest that 181 GW
of new capacity will be built in the 12 years from
2009 to 2020, and that an additional 242 GW will
be constructed in the decade from 2021 to 2030
(see Table 7.1). The table also shows the historic
and future growth rates in annual installations for the
period 1991 to 2030.
As mentioned in the previous chapter, EWEA expects
the annual market for offshore to reach 1.1 GW in
2010, which would translate into an average annual
growth rate for offshore of 76% this decade â more
than twice the annual growth rate in onshore in the
ten years from 1991 to 2000. To meet the 230 GW
target in 2020 would require an average growth in
annual installations of 10.1% from 2009 to 2020:
7.3% growth in the onshore market and 28.7% growth
in the offshore market.
In total, average annual installations are assumed
to more than double from 7 GW this decade (2001
to 2010) to 15.1 GW in the ten years from 2011 to
2020. In the ten years after that (2021 to 2030),
average annual installations will be some 50% higher
(24.2 GW) than the decade before.
ANNUAL WIND POWER INSTALLATIONS EU (2000-2030)
FIGURE 7.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
n
Offshore repowering
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
n
New offshore
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.9 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.3 10.1 10.9 11.6 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6
n
Onshore repowering
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.2 5.1 5.6 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.5 9.0
n
New onshore
3.2 4.4 5.6 5.1 5.7 6.0 7.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.5 13.1 13.6 12.0 11.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
Source: EWEA
GW
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
PURE POWER 2009
48
New wiNd capacity (1991-2030)
Table 7.1
New wind capacity (MW)
Onshore
Offshore
Total
1991-2000
12,413
35
12,448
2001-2010
67,320
2,966
70,286
2009-2020
142,896
38,541
181,437
2011-2020
126,596
37,011
163,607
2021-2030
131,376
110,683
242,059
Annual growth rate
Onshore
Offshore
Total
1991-2000
37.3%
-2.9%
36.9%
2000-2010
9.7%
76.3%
11.1%
2009-2020
7.3%
28.7%
10.1%
2010-2020
8.2%
20.2%
10.4%
2020-2030
-5.2%
7.1%
-0.2%
1992-2004onshore
32%
2008-2020offshore
28%
Average MW / year
Onshore
Offshore
Total
1991-2000
1,241
4
1,245
2001-2010
6,732
297
7,029
2009-2020
11,908
3,212
15,120
2011-2020
12,660
3,701
16,361
2021-2030
13,138
11,068
24,206
Source: EWEA
Summary of wind energy in 2030, according to ewea 2008 targets
âĸ 400 GW installed capacity: 250 GW onshore and 150 GW offshore
âĸ annual installations of 24.2 GW: 10.5 GW onshore (43%) and 13.7 GW offshore (57%)
âĸ annual investments of âŦ24.8 billion: âŦ8.3 onshore and âŦ16.5 billion offshore
âĸ Meeting 26-34.7% of eU electricity demand depending on total demand
âĸ 38% of total electricity generating capacity in the eU (Total end 2030: 1,061 GW)
âĸ Producing 1,155 TWh of electricity: 592 TWh onshore and 563 TWh offshore, equivalent to the consumption
of 241 million average eU households
âĸ avoiding 600 Mt CO
2
annually
âĸ avoided fuel cost of âŦ56 billion (assuming Iea forecast: fuel cost equivalent to $122/bbl of oil)
âĸ avoiding âŦ15 billion of CO
2
cost annually (assuming âŦ25/t CO
2
)
7. eWeaâs 2030 Target
49
PURE POWER 2009
8.
Wind Powerâs
Share of EU
Electricity
Demand
Photo:
EWEA/W
inter
PURE POWER 2009
50
Source: ??
The 64.9 GW of installed capacity in the EU-27 by
the end of 2008 will, in a normal wind year, produce
137 TWh of electricity, enough to meet 4% of EU elec-
tricity demand.
Wind powerâs share of the total EU power demand
depends on whether total electricity demand in the
EU increases in line with the European Commissionâs
baseline scenario
19
or stabilises in accordance with
its New Energy Policy scenario
20
.
As can be seen from Table 8.1, wind power will produce
179 TWh in 2010, 582 TWh in 2020, and 1,155 TWh
in 2030. Wind power will meet between 5% (base-
line) and 5.2% (New Energy Policy) of EU electricity
demand in 2010, between 14.3% and 16.6% in 2020,
and between 26.2% and 34.3% in 2030, depending
on how overall electricity consumption develops in the
EU between now and 2030.
The calculations in the following chapters of this
report are based on the European Commissionâs base-
line scenario for electricity demand, unless otherwise
stated.
It is assumed that the average capacity factor of all
wind turbines in the EU will increase from 24.1% in
2008 to 24.7% in 2010, 28.9% in 2020 and 33%
in 2030. The increase will be due to better design,
exploiting the resources in more windy areas of
Europe, technology improvements and a larger share
of offshore wind. In Germany, average capacity factors
will only start increasing if older turbines are replaced
and offshore wind power takes off. It should be
noted that for a technology that makes use of a free
resource, a high capacity factor is not a goal in itself.
It is not technically problematic to increase capacity
factors, but doing so affects grid integration, model-
ling and generation costs.
19
Source: EC, 2008a.
20
Source: EC, 2008c.
Source: EWEA; European Commission
WIND POWERâS SHARE OF EU ELECTRICITY DEMAND (1995-2030)
FIGURE 8.1
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Wind energy production (TWh)
22.6
82.9
136.9
178.7
335.2
581.6
873.4
1,154.6
EU Baseline (TWh)
2,993.7
3,320.3
3,386.6
3,569.8
3,840.9
4,066.0
4,273.9
4,408.9
Wind energy share - Baseline
scenario
0.8%
2.5%
4.0%
5.0%
8.7%
14.3%
20.4%
26.2%
New Energy Policy (TWh)
2,993.7
3,320.3
3,386.6
3,404.5
3,449.2
3,494.0
3,431.1
3,368.1
Wind energy share - New
Energy Policy
0.8%
2.5%
4.0%
5.2%
9.7%
16.6%
25.5%
34.3%
n
Wind energy share - Baseline scenario
n
Wind energy share - New Energy Policy
n
Other energy sources
8. Wind Powerâs Share of EU Electricity Demand
51
PURE POWER 2009
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Wind energy production (TWh)
22.6
82.9
136.9
178.7
335.2
581.6
873.4
1,154.6
EU Baseline (TWh)
2,993.7
3,320.3
3,386.6
3,569.8
3,840.9
4,066.0
4,273.9
4,408.9
Wind energy share - Baseline
scenario
0.8%
2.5%
4.0%
5.0%
8.7%
14.3%
20.4%
26.2%
New Energy Policy (TWh)
2,993.7
3,320.3
3,386.6
3,404.5
3,449.2
3,494.0
3,431.1
3,368.1
Wind energy share - New
Energy Policy
0.8%
2.5%
4.0%
5.2%
9.7%
16.6%
25.5%
34.3%
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FROM WIND
(TWh)
TABLE 8.1
Electricity production from wind
Onshore
Offshore
Total
EU baseline
consumption
EU consumption
NEP
2000
22.5
0.1
22.6
2,993.7
2,993.7
2005
80.3
2.6
82.9
3,320.3
3,320.3
2008
131.6
5.3
136.9
3,386.6
3,386.6
2010
167.8
10.9
178.7
3,569.8
3,404.5
2015
281.5
53.7
335.2
3,840.9
3,449.2
2020
433.3
148.3
581.6
4,066.0
3,494.0
2025
550.9
322.5
873.4
4,273.9
3,431.1
2030
592.0
562.6
1 154.6
4,408.9
3,368.1
Source: EWEA; European Commission
Onshore
Offshore
Total
1995
0.2%
2000
0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
2005
2.4%
0.1%
2.5%
2008
3.9%
0.2%
4.0%
2010 Baseline
4.7%
0.3%
5.0%
2010 New Energy Policy
4.9%
0.3%
5.2%
2015 Baseline
7.3%
1.4%
8.7%
2015 New Energy Policy
8.2%
1.6%
9.7%
2020 Baseline
10.7%
3.6%
14.3%
2020 New Energy Policy
12.4%
4.2%
16.6%
2025 Baseline
12.9%
7.5%
20.4%
2025 New Energy Policy
16.1%
9.4%
25.5%
2030 Baseline
13.4%
12.8%
26.2%
2030 New Energy Policy
17.6%
16.7%
34.3%
Source: EWEA; European Commission
WIND SHARE OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
(%)
TABLE 8.2
PURE POWER 2009
52
Wind powerâs share of EU household demand
The wind power production derived from the new
EWEA scenarios can be expressed in terms of house-
hold electricity consumption. Household consumption
is expected to increase from 790 TWh in 2006 to
1,114 TWh in 2030
21
.
By 2030 some 25% of total electricity demand will be
consumed by households. Other sectors that consume
electricity include industry, agriculture, and public and
private services.
While the total EU population is estimated to remain
relatively stable, the number of households will
increase by approximately 30 million between 2008
and 2030, indicating a reduction in the average
household size from 2.3 in 2008 to 2.0 in 2030. The
average annual household consumption, neverthe-
less, will increase by 19% from 4,037 kWh per year in
2008 to 4,787 kWh in 2030 (Figure 8.2).
The wind power capacity installed by the end of 2008
will produce 137 TWh in an average wind year, equiva-
lent to the electricity needs of 34 million average EU
households. If the EWEA targets are reached, wind
power will produce electricity equivalent to the needs
of 44 million households in 2010, 131 million house-
holds in 2020 and 241 million EU households in
2030. By 2030 wind power would produce electricity
equivalent to more than all the electricity consumed
by the EUâs 233 million households (see Figure 8.2).
Wind energy and electric cars
Car manufacturers have started to develop âhybrid
vehiclesâ and âelectric vehiclesâ (EVs) in recent
years. EWEAâs scenarios to 2030 do not take into
account any increase in electricity demand from
electric cars. It is generally recognised that electric
motors are much more efficient than the combustion
engine. Consequently, a shift from the current petrol
WIND POWERâS SHARE OF EU HOUSEHOLD DEMAND
FIGURE 8.2
Mio
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
21
34
44
131
241
2005
2008
2010
2020
2030
Source: EWEA
Average household consumption (kWh)
3,973
4,037
4,079
4,441
4,787
Number of households (Mio)
196
201
205
221
233
Wind power production (TWh)
83
137
179
582
1,155
Equivalent electricity demand met by wind
power (million households)
21
34
44
131
241
Equivalent electricity demand met by
wind power (% of households)
11%
17%
21%
59%
104%
21
Source: Eurelectric and European Commission, 2005.
8. Wind Powerâs Share of EU Electricity Demand
53
PURE POWER 2009
and diesel cars to electric cars could save large
amounts of fossil fuels. It is important to stress that
an electric vehicle is only as âcleanâ as the tech-
nology used to produce the electricity that it runs
on. Consequently, the larger the share of renewable
energy in Europeâs power mix, the cleaner the electric
vehicles of the future will be.
Conservatively assuming that an average electric car
consumes 0.2 kWh per kilometre and has an average
mileage of 10,000 kilometres per car
22
, an electric car
will consume 2,000 kWh per year. Consequently, the
wind power produced in Europe in 2008 could power
68.5 million electric cars (see Table 8.3). If the new
EWEA targets are met, enough wind power would be
produced to power 291 million cars in 2020 and
577 million cars in 2030. In 2006, there were around
230 million cars in Europe
23
.
WIND ENERGY AND ELECTRIC CARS
TABLE 8.3
Wind energy
production
(TWh)
Average
annual
energy
consump-
tion per car
(kWh)
Number of
electric cars
powered by
wind (mio)
2008
137
2,000
68.5
2020
582
2,000
291.0
2030
1,155
2,000
577.5
Source: EWEA,
22
The European Environment Agency (2009) estimates that Electric Vehicles (EV) will consume between 0.11 and 0.2 kWh/km â the
lower estimate through likely technology developments in the future. The Brussels-based NGO âTransport & Environmentâ assumes
that EVs have an annual mileage of 8,640 kilometres (80% of that of petrol cars).
23
According to Eurostat, there were 466 cars per 1,000 inhabitants in the EU-27 in 2006. There were 495 million inhabitants of the
EU-27 in 2007.
PURE POWER 2009
54
9.
Contribution
of Wind Power
to Electricity
Generation
Capacity
Photo:
EWEA/Depasse
55
PURE POWER 2009
The IEA
24
expects 4,528 GW of electricity generating
capacity to be installed worldwide in the period 2007-
2030, requiring investments of $5,034 billion in
generation, $2,106 billion in transmission grids and
$4,657 billion in distribution grids. For OECD Europe,
the IEA expects 686 GW to be built, requiring invest-
ments of $922 billion in new generation, $187 billion
in transmission and $567 billion in distribution grids.
As already mentioned, wind powerâs contribution to
new power capacity in the EU was exceeded only by
gas in the last decade. 30% of all installed capacity
was wind power from 2000 to 2008. 52% was natural
gas, 6% was coal and 0.7% was nuclear. In 2008, the
EU countries installed more wind energy capacity than
any other power technology.
Europe has to invest in new capacity to replace ageing
plants and meet future demand. 801 GW of electricity
generating capacity was operating in the EU by the
end of 2008
25
. Total installed capacity will increase to
901 GW in 2020 and 966 GW in 2030, according to the
European Commission (see Table 9.1). It expects new
capacity worth 287 GW to be built between 2009 and
2020 and an additional 298 GW between 2021 and
2030. In total, 585 GW of new capacity will need to be
constructed over the coming 22 years in the EU, equal
to 73% of the total capacity installed by end 2008.
Consequently, 187 GW of existing capacity will be
decommissioned until 2020 and an additional 233 GW
between 2021 and 2030.
As mentioned in Chapter 4, the European Commissionâs
scenario for the future development of wind energy is
significantly lower than EWEAâs. Hence, it is necessary
to adjust the European Commission figures for total
generating capacity and new capacity in Table 9.1 to
take account of wind energyâs capacity factor being
lower than that of the average coal, gas or oil plant.
Adjusting for the difference in capacity factors adds
95 GW to the total generating capacity in 2030 to make
a total of 1,061 GW (Figure 9.1). It adds 94.5 GW to
the new generating capacity installed between 2009
and 2030, taking the total for the period to 680 GW.
In 2008, 8.1% of all capacity in the EU was wind
energy. That share is forecast to increase to 9.9%
in 2010, 24.2% in 2020 and 37.7% in 2030. Wind
powerâs share of new generating capacity is forecast
to be 32% in 2009-2010, 59% in 2011-2020 and 70%
in the decade leading up to 2030.
NEW CAPACITY, DECOMMISSIONING AND TOTAL CAPACITY (2009-2030)
(GW)
TABLE 9.1
New capacity
Decommissioning
Total capacity ultimo
2009-2010
51
16.6
835
2011-2020
236.3
170.3
901
2021-2030
298.3
233.3
966
Source: EWEA based on European energy and transport trends to 2030 (update 2007), European Commission 2008
24
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2008.
25
The figures in this chapter are all derived by EWEA from EC, 2008a; Platts Powervision.
PURE POWER 2009
56
WIND POWERâS SHARE OF INSTALLED EU POWER CAPACITY (1995-2030)
FIGURE 9.1
WIND POWERâS SHARE OF NEW CAPACITY
FIGURE 9.2
1995
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total installed capacity
(GW)
539
695
747
801
841
886
951
1,014
1,061
Total installed wind
capacity (GW)
2.5
13
41
65
83
143
230
324
400
Wind power's share
of installed capacity
0.46%
1.9%
5.4%
8.1%
9.9%
16.1%
24.2%
31.9%
37.7%
2009-2010
2001-2010
2011-2020
2021-2030
New generating capacity (GW)
56
226
276
348
New wind generating capacity (GW)
18
71
163
242
Wind power's share of new capacity
32%
31%
59%
70%
Source: European Commission 2008, Platts Powervision, EWEA
Source: European Commission 2008, Platts Powervision, EWEA
9. Contribution of Wind Power to Electricity Generation Capacity
57
PURE POWER 2009
10.
Wind Power
and CO
2
Photo
: EDF
PURE POWER 2009
58
In 1997 in Kyoto, the EU-15 made a commitment to
reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) by
8% compared to its 1990 level of emissions by 2008-
2012. A âburden sharingâ approach sets targets for
each of the 15 Member States. The new Member
States have individual reduction targets of 8% except
Hungary and Poland who must reduce their GHGs by
6%. Cyprus and Malta have no obligation. The overall
Kyoto reduction target for the EU-25 (excluding Malta
and Cyprus) is 7.8%, or 450 Mt of CO
2
equivalents.
The EU-15 needs to reduce its emissions by 342 Mt
of CO
2
equivalents
26
.
In 2006, total GHG emissions in the EU-27 were 7.7%
below 1990 levels.
CO
2
reductions from wind power
The most important GHG by far is CO
2
. There are
different ways of calculating how much CO
2
wind
energy avoids, and the results depend on the assump-
tions made about which fuels are displaced when wind
electricity is produced. The energy mix and base load
differ between Member States, so ideally wind powerâs
avoided CO
2
emissions should be based on the energy
mix at the intermediate load in each Member State.
Here, it is assumed that wind energy avoids CO
2
at the
intermediate load but at the average EU-27 genera-
tion mix.
Nuclear power is rather inflexible and can not easily be
regulated up and down. Hence, wind power does not
displace operating nuclear production, except during
scheduled and unscheduled nuclear shutdowns and
if nuclear capacity is decommissioned. Neither does
wind energy replace hydropower because hydropower
is like a storage technology for electricity. Electricity
from hydro that is not used when wind power is
operating will be saved for production later, but total
production from hydro is constant over time.
For the EU as a whole it is assumed that each kWh
of wind power displaces a kWh defined by the energy
mix of coal, oil and gas at the time of production. This
approach underestimates wind energyâs CO
2
avoid-
ance because wind energy in reality avoids the most
expensive and CO
2
intense production rather than the
average production mix.
Naturally, the EU energy mix will change during
the period up to 2030. According to the European
Commission
27
, thermal power stations in the EU
produced 1,899 TWh in 2005 and emitted 1,375 Mt
of CO
2
. Consequently, 1 TWh produced by wind energy
saved 0.724 Mt CO
2
/TWh in 2005. The same
approach is applied to the European Commissionâs
data for 2010, 2015 and 2030 and a linear varia-
tion is assumed in the intermediate years. Using this
approach it is assumed that wind energy in 2020 will
avoid 0.572 Mt CO
2
/TWh and 0.518 Mt CO
2
/TWh in
2030. In 2008, wind energy avoided 91 Mt of CO
2
. In
EWEAâs reference scenario, annual CO
2
avoided from
wind energy will increase to 113 Mt in 2010, 333 Mt
in 2020 and 599 Mt in 2030.
Figure 10.1 shows the total annual CO
2
emissions
avoided by wind energy for the years 2000 to 2030
and the value of the CO
2
avoided for different potential
future CO
2
prices.
At a CO
2
price of âŦ25/t, wind power avoided âŦ2.3 billion
in carbon costs in 2008. At the same CO
2
price, wind
power will avoid carbon costs of âŦ2.8 billion in 2010,
âŦ8.3 billion in 2020 and âŦ15 billion in 2030.
It is important to note that the total CO
2
reductions
from the wind power installations needed to reach
EWEAâs 2030 reference scenario greatly exceed the
figures for the annual reductions illustrated in Figure
10.1 because the turbines installed in a given year will
deliver CO
2
reductions for 20 to 25 years from the year
they are installed and, hence, far beyond 2030.
26
Source: EEA, 2007a.
27
Source: EC, 2008a.
10. Wind Power and CO
2
59
PURE POWER 2009
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
CO
2
AVOIDED ANNUALLY BY WIND ENERGY AND ANNUAL CO
2
COST AVOIDED BY WIND ENERGY FOR
VARIOUS CO
2
PRICES (2000-2030)
FIGURE 10.1
Source: EWEA
Mt CO
2
avoided
âŦ bn
n
CO
2
avoided by wind (Mt)
n
CO
2
cost avoided by wind (Mt)
n
CO
2
cost avoided âŦ25/t
n
CO
2
cost avoided âŦ40/t
PURE POWER 2009
60
11.
Avoided
Fuel Costs
Photo:
Denis
Schwar
tz
61
PURE POWER 2009
Wind power requires no fuel input. When wind energy is
produced, it saves significant amounts of fuel costs in
the form of the coal, gas and oil that would otherwise
have been needed for power production. In addition
to these avoided costs, the production of wind energy
reduces demand for imported fuel (and thereby brings
down the cost of fuel) while reducing the rate of deple-
tion of Europeâs remaining fossil fuel reserves.
The avoided fuel costs of wind energy depend on
the assumptions made about future fuel prices. Oil
and gas prices are very closely linked, and coal also
follows â to a lesser extent - the price of oil. Both
the IEA and the European Commission have for many
years made predictions on future coal, gas and oil
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 11.1
Fuel price assumptions (in $07)*
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
European Commission
33.3
57.9
94.8
74.0
88.4
106.3
86.2
66.1
International Energy Agency
33.3
57.9
94.8
100.0
100.0
110.0
116.0
122.0
Price 11 July 2008
* Adjusted to 2007 prices / actual prices until 2008
$1.25/âŦ
prices, and most governments base their energy poli-
cies on the IEAâs fuel price scenarios. The European
Commission
28
assumptions on fuel prices are signifi-
cantly lower than those of the IEA
29
(see Table 11.1).
For 2010, the IEA assumes an oil price (in $
2007
)
of $100 per barrel - 35% higher than the European
Commissionâs assumption of âŦ74 per barrel (bbl). For
2030, the IEA assumes an oil price of $122 â 85%
higher than the European Commissionâs assumption
of $66.1.
On 11 July 2008, the oil price reached a historic high
of $147/BBL. In October 2009, oil was trading at
$80/bbl during the worst global recession since the
1930s.
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
FIGURE 11.1
n
European Commission
n
International Energy Agency
n
Price 11 July 2008
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
$2007/
barrel
28
Source: EC, 2008a.
29
Source: IEA, 2008a.
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
PURE POWER 2009
62
AVOIDED FUEL COST FROM WIND - EUROPEAN COMMISSION FUEL PRICES
FIGURE 11.2
AVOIDED FUEL COST FROM WIND - INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA) FUEL PRICES
FIGURE 11.3
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
âŦ bn
âŦ bn
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
n
Coal
138,657,387
860,662,002
2,087,161,024
2,697,486,111
4,780,764,685
8,362,857,047 12,569,864,965 16,642,433,329
n
Oil
96,593,513
408,288,766
794,045,950
847,435,552
1,164,980,696
1,804,450,357
2,325,050,774
2,875,108,051
n
Gas
127,489,673
1,170,115,022
3,284,902,995
4,655,944,805
8,459,951,348 15,633,389,418 23,647,172,591 30,762,198,016
n
Biomass and waste
35,919,841
213,703,525
381,491,603
502,290,342
874,207,217
1,933,700,405
3,389,174,465
5,513,193,047
Total (âŦ07)
398,660,414
2,652,769,315
6,547,601,572
8,703,156,810 15,279,903,945 27,734,397,227 41,931,262,795 55,792,932,444
Avoided fuel cost /
TWh wind
17,641,167
31,982,109
47,811,122
48,313,543
45,584,995
47,688,982
48,009,364
48,321,120
Source: EWEA and International Energy Agency (IEA)
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
n
Coal
138,657,387
860,662,002
2,087,161,024
1,996,139,722
4,226,195,981
8,081,560,946
9,340,710,000
9,016,924,943
n
Oil
96,593,513
408,288,766
794,045,950
627,102,308
1,029,842,935
1,743,755,209
1,727,753,248
1,557,742,969
n
Gas
127,489,673
1,170,115,022
3,284,902,995
3,445,399,156
7,478,596,992 15,107,539,046 17,572,295,494 16,667,059,745
n
Biomass and waste
35,919,841
213,703,525
381,491,603
502,290,342
874,207,217
1,933,700,405
3,389,174,465
5,513,193,047
Total (âŦ07)
398,660,414
2,652,769,315
6,547,601,572
6,570,931,528 13,608,843,125 26,866,555,607 32,029,933,207 32,754,920,704
Avoided fuel cost /
TWh wind
17,641,167
31,982,109
47,811,122
36,476,993
40,599,670
46,196,738
36,672,798
28,368,368
Source: EWEA and European Commission
11. Avoided Fuel Costs
63
PURE POWER 2009
The fuel costs avoided due to wind energy produc-
tion can be calculated on the basis of the European
Commissionâs fuel price assumptions for coal, oil
and gas up to 2030
30
. As Figure 11.2 shows, wind
energy avoided âŦ6.5 billion of fuel costs in 2008:
âŦ3.3 billion worth of gas; âŦ2.1 billion worth of coal;
âŦ0.8 billion worth of oil and âŦ.04 billion worth of
biomass / waste. According to EWEAâs new targets,
AVOIDED FUEL COST FROM WIND - HISTORIC HIGH FUEL PRICE OF 11 jULY 2008 (âŦ147/BBL)
FIGURE 11.4
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
âŦ bn
2000
2005
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
n
Coal
138,657,387
860,662,002
2,087,161,024
3,965,304,584
7,027,724,087 11,175,818,053 15,929,053,016 20,052,768,027
n
Oil
96,593,513
408,288,766
794,045,950
1,245,730,261
1,712,521,622
2,411,401,841
2,946,400,550
3,464,269,537
n
Gas
127,489,673
1,170,115,022
3,284,902,995
6,844,238,863 12,436,128,482 20,891,893,131 29,966,675,611 37,065,927,118
n
Biomass and waste
35,919,841
213,703,525
381,491,603
502,290,342
874,207,217
1,933,700,405
3,389,174,465
5,513,193,047
Total (âŦ07)
398,660,414 2,652,769,315 6,547,601,572 12,557,564,050 22,050,581,408 36,412,813,431 52,231,303,642 66,096,157,730
Avoided fuel cost /
TWh wind
17,641,167
31,982,109
47,811,122
69,710,386
65,784,160
62,611,421
59,802,437
57,244,533
Source: EWEA
wind energy will avoid fuel costs of âŦ6.6 billion in
2010, âŦ26.9 billion in 2020 and âŦ32.8 billion in
2030, based on the European Commissionâs fuel price
assumptions. Assuming the IEA fuel price scenario,
wind power will avoid âŦ55.8 billion in 2030. And if fuel
prices in 2030 equal the level reached on 11 July 2008,
wind energy would avoid fuel costs of âŦ66.1 billion. The
calculation is based on an exchange rate of $1.25/âŦ.
30
Source: Up to 2020: Commission staff working document - Europeâs current and future energy position; SEC(2008) 2871 of 13
November 2008 (New Energy Policy scenario). 2021-2030: European Energy and Transport â Trends to 2030; European Commission,
2008.
PURE POWER 2009
64
12.
Wind Energy
Investments up
to 2030
Photo:
EWEA/W
inter
65
PURE POWER 2009
One of the most attractive features of wind power
is that the fuel is free. Therefore, the total cost of
producing wind energy throughout the 20 to 25 year
lifetime of a wind turbine can be predicted with great
certainty. Neither the future prices of coal, oil or gas,
nor the price of carbon, will affect the cost of wind
power production.
In order to calculate the wind power investments
needed to reach EWEAâs reference scenario, it is
necessary to make assumptions as to the future cost
of installed wind power capacity. For some years, it
was assumed that installed wind power capacity cost
around âŦ1,000/kW. That is probably still a valid rule
of thumb. However, since 2000 there have been quite
large variations in the price (not necessarily the cost)
of installing wind power capacity.
From 2001 to 2004, the global market for wind power
capacity grew less than expected and created a surplus
in wind turbine production capacity. Consequently, the
price of wind power capacity went down dramatically
â for some projects to âŦ700-800/kW. In the past four
years - 2005 to 2008 â the global market for wind
energy increased by 30-40% annually, and demand for
wind turbines surged, leading to increases in prices.
Since 2008, turbine prices seem to have continued
their long-term downwards trend.
The European Commission, in its Renewable Energy
Roadmap of 2007
31
, assumed that onshore wind
energy would cost âŦ935/kW in 2008 (in âŦ
2005
). It
assumes that costs will drop to âŦ826/kW in 2020
and âŦ788/kW in 2030. That long term cost curve
may still apply for a situation where there is balance
between demand and supply for wind turbines.
Figure 12.1 shows the European Commissionâs
assumptions on the development of onshore and
offshore wind power capacity cost up to 2030. In addi-
tion, there are two curves that reflect the effect of
the demand / supply on wind turbine prices in recent
years. EWEA assumes onshore wind energy prices
of âŦ1,250 / kW in 2008 (âŦ
2005
prices) and offshore
prices of âŦ2,400/kW. The increase in offshore costs
reflects the limited number of manufacturers in the
offshore market, the current absence of economies of
scale due to low market deployment and bottlenecks
in the supply chain.
CAPITAL COST OF ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND
FIGURE 12.1
n
Onshore capital cost - European Commission*
n
Offshore capital cost - European Commission*
n
Onshore capital cost - EWEA (âŦ2005/kW)
n
Offshore capital cost - EWEA (âŦ2005/kW)
* European Commission: Renewable Energy Roadmap
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
âŦ/kW
31
Source: EC, 2007a.
PURE POWER 2009
66
âŦ2005 bln
Based on the new EWEA targets for installed capacity
up to 2030 and the wind power capacity prices above,
Figure 12.2 shows expected annual wind power
investments from 2000 to 2030. The annual market
is to increase gradually from âŦ11 billion in 2008 to
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
WIND ENERGY INVESTMENTS 2000-2030
FIGURE 12.2
Onshore investments (âŦ2005 billion)
Offshore investments (âŦ2005 billion)
Total investments (âŦ2005 billion)
2000
3.455
0.007
3.462
2001
3.940
0.089
4.028
2002
4.595
0.306
4.901
2003
4.683
0.480
5.162
2004
5.749
0.175
5.924
2005
7.031
0.185
7.215
2006
9.239
0.431
9.670
2007
10.822
0.483
11.305
2008
10.148
0.879
11.026
2009
9.840
1.032
10.872
2010
9.315
2.529
11.844
2011
9.976
3.300
13.276
2012
9.693
3.916
13.609
2013
9.611
4.320
13.931
2014
9.697
4.320
14.017
2015
9.775
4.573
14.348
2016
10.404
5.047
15.451
2017
11.428
5.557
16.984
2018
12.679
6.315
18.994
2019
13.826
7.526
21.352
2020
14.744
8.810
23.554
2021
14.028
9.779
23.807
2022
13.549
10.713
24.262
2023
12.725
11.662
24.387
2024
11.584
12.593
24.177
2025
10.583
13.521
24.103
2026
9.558
14.367
23.925
2027
8.970
15.293
24.264
2028
8.467
15.927
24.394
2029
8.306
16.118
24.424
2030
8.261
16.510
24.771
Source: EWEA
âŦ23.5 billion in 2020. In the decade up to 2030, the
market will be stable - just below âŦ25 billion annually,
with a gradually increasing share of investments going
to offshore.
n
Onshore investments (âŦ2005 billion)
n
Offshore investments (âŦ2005 billion)
12. Wind Energy Investments up to 2030
67
PURE POWER 2009
Wind energy and employment
In 2008, the wind energy industry employed 155,000
people directly or indirectly in Europe. Assuming
EWEAâs new targets are met, the wind energy sector
will employ 182,000 people in 2010, 282,000 in
2015 and 446,000 by 2020. By 2025, employment
in the European offshore wind sector is expected to
exceed onshore wind energy employment. By 2030,
wind energy will employ 479,000 people in the EU, of
which 294,000 â 61% of the total - will be in offshore
wind energy.
WIND ENERGY SECTOR EMPLOYMENT (2008-2030)
FIGURE 12.3
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
155,197
182,290
282,359
446,419
466,983
479,224
2008
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
n
Onshore
143,782
148,057
200,870
290,276
228,104
185,478
n
Offshore
11,415
34,232
81,489
156,143
238,879
293,746
Source: EWEA
PURE POWER 2009
68
13.
Wind
Energy After
2030
Photo:
Dong
Energ
y
69
PURE POWER 2009
On 7 October 2009, the European Commission
published its Communication on âInvesting in the
Development of Low Carbon Technologies (SET-Plan)â
â COM (2009) 519. The European Commission stated
that the development of wind energy âmust be under-
pinned by a comprehensive research programme to
improve the conversion efficiency of wind turbines.â
It is estimated in the Communication that âŦ6 billion
of investment in wind energy research is needed
in Europe over the next 10 years. According to the
European Commissionâs Communication, âThe return
would be fully competitive wind power generation
capable of contributing up to 20% of EU electricity
by 2020 and as much as 33% by 2030. More than
250,000 skilled jobs could be created.â
EWEA agrees with the Commissionâs assessment.
With additional research efforts and significant
progress in building the necessary grid infrastructure
over the next ten years, wind energy could meet one
fifth of the EUâs electricity demand in 2020, one third
in 2030 and half by 2050.
Meeting the European Commissionâs ambitions for
wind energy would require 265 GW of wind power
capacity, including 55 GW of offshore wind by 2020 (see
Table 13.1). That would require Member States to adopt
the âhighâ scenarios for wind energy (described in Chapter
1) in their National Renewable Energy Action Plans,
combined with the European Commissionâs New Energy
Policy scenario for 2020 demand. The Commissionâs
2030 target of 33% of EU power from wind energy can
be reached by meeting EWEAâs 2030 installed capacity
target of 400 GW wind, as outlined in Chapter 7. A total
of 600 GW of wind energy would be needed in 2050 to
meet 50% of the EUâs electricity demand: 250 GW would
be onshore and 350 GW offshore. With a higher propor-
tion of offshore wind energy, wind energy could produce
more than the 2,015 TWh indicated in the table.
Onshore
wind
(GW)
Offshore
wind
(GW)
Total
wind
energy
capacity
(GW)
Average
capacity
factor
onshore
Average
capacity
factor
offshore
TWh
onshore
TWh
offshore
TWh Total
EU-27
gross
electricity
consump-
tion*
Wind
powerâs
share of
electricity
demand*
2020**
210
55
265
26,0%
42,3%
479
204
683
3,494
20%
2030
250
150
400
27,0%
42,8%
592
563
1,155
3,368
34%
2050
250
350
600
29,0%
45,0%
635
1,380
2,015
4,000
50%
* Electricity demand assumes the European Commissionâs New Energy Policy $100 oil/barrel scenario until 2020 and High Renewables / Energy Efficiency scenario
for 2030. Demand in 2050 is assumed to be 4,000 TWh.
** Assuming 265 GW by 2020 in accordance with EWEAs âhighâ scenario - see Chapter 1 - combined with the European Commissionâs âNew Energy Policyâ assumption
for demand.
WIND ENERGY CAPACITY NEEDED TO MEET THE EUROPEAN COMMISSIONâS SET-PLAN TARGETS
TABLE 13.1
PURE POWER 2009
70
Annex
Photo:
EWEA
/Hennaux
71
PURE POWER 2009
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Austria
77
94
140
415
606
819
965
982
995
Belgium
13
32
35
68
96
167
194
287
384
Bulgaria
0
0
0
0
10
10
36
57
158
Cyprus
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Czech Republic
0
0
3
9
17
28
54
116
150
Denmark
2,417
2,489
2,889
3,116
3,118
3,128
3,136
3,125
3,180
Estonia
0
0
2
2
6
32
32
59
78
Finland
39
39
43
52
82
82
86
110
143
France
66
93
148
257
390
757
1,567
2,454
3,404
Germany
6,113
8,754
11,994
14,609
16,629
18,415
20,622
22,247
23,903
Greece
189
272
297
383
473
573
746
871
985
Hungary
0
0
3
3
3
17
61
65
127
Ireland
118
124
137
190
339
496
746
795
1,002
Italy
427
682
788
905
1,266
1,718
2,123
2,726
3,736
Latvia
0
0
24
27
27
27
27
27
27
Lithuania
0
0
0
0
6
6
48
51
54
Luxembourg
10
15
17
22
35
35
35
35
35
Malta
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Netherlands
446
486
693
910
1,079
1,219
1,558
1,747
2,225
Poland
0
0
27
63
63
83
153
276
472
Portugal
100
131
195
296
522
1,022
1,716
2,150
2,862
Romania
0
0
1
1
1
2
3
8
10
Slovakia
0
0
0
3
5
5
5
5
3
Slovenia
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Spain
2,235
3,337
4,825
6,203
8,264
10,028
11,623
15,131
16,740
Sweden
231
293
345
399
442
510
571
788
1021
UK
406
474
552
667
904
1,332
1,962
2,406
3,241
EU Total
12,887
1,7315
23,157
28,598
34,372
40,500
48,031
56,453
64,935
ANNEX 1:
CUMULATIVE INSTALLATIONS OF WIND POWER IN THE EU
(MW)
Source: EWEA
PURE POWER 2009
72
Country
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Austria
43
17
46
276
192
218
146
19
14
Belgium
7
19
3
33
28
71
28
93
104
Bulgaria
0
0
0
0
10
0
26
21
101
Cyprus
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Czech Republic
0
0
0
6
9
11
26
63
34
Denmark
646
72
506
249
9
22
12
3
77
Estonia
0
0
0
3
26
0
27
20
Finland
0
0
4
9
30
4
4
24
33
France
41
27
55
109
138
367
810
888
950
Germany
1,671
2,641
3,240
2,645
2,037
1,809
2,233
1,667
1,665
Greece
77
83
25
86
90
100
173
125
114
Hungary
0
0
0
0
0
14
43
4
62
Ireland
44
6
13
53
149
157
250
49
208
Italy
150
255
106
117
361
452
417
603
1,010
Latvia
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
Lithuania
0
0
0
6
0
42
89
3
Luxembourg
0
4.8
2.2
5
14
0
0
0
0
Malta
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Netherlands
13
40
222
224
199
154
354
210
500
Poland
0
0
36
0
20
69
1239
196
Portugal
39
31
64
104
226
500
694
434
712
Romania
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4.95
2
Slovakia
0
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
Slovenia
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Spain
423
1,102
1,488
1,378
2,065
1,764
1,595
3,508
1,609
Sweden
11
62
52
54
43
68
62
217
236
UK
44
68
87
121
237
445
634
443
836
EU-27* Total
3,209
4,428
5,973
5,510
5,838
6,204
7,592
8,535
8,484
ANNEX 2:
ANNUAL INSTALLATIONS OF WIND POWER IN THE EU
(MW)
Source: EWEA
*EU-25 from 2005; EU-27 from 2007
Annex
73
PURE POWER 2009
Onshore
annual
Onshore
total
Onshore
decommis-
sioning
Offshore
annual
Offshore
total
Offshore
decommis-
sioning
Total
new wind
capacity
annual
Total
installed
wind
capacity
2000
3.2
12.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
12.9
2001
4.4
17.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
4.4
17.3
2002
5.7
22.8
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
5.9
23.1
2003
5.2
28.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.0
5.5
28.5
2004
5.7
33.8
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.0
5.8
34.4
2005
6.1
39.8
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.0
6.2
40.5
2006
7.4
47.1
0.1
0.2
0.9
0.0
7.6
48.0
2007
8.3
55.4
0.1
0.2
1.1
0.0
8.5
56.5
2008
8.1
63.5
0.1
0.4
1.5
0.0
8.5
64.9
2009
8.2
71.6
0.1
0.4
1.9
0.0
8.6
73.5
2010
8.1
79.6
0.1
1.1
3.0
0.0
9.2
82.6
2011
9.5
88.9
0.2
1.5
4.5
0.0
11.0
93.4
2012
9.7
98.3
0.3
2.0
6.5
0.0
11.6
105
2013
10.1
107.9
0.5
2.4
8.9
0.0
12.5
117
2014
10.7
117.9
0.7
2.7
11.6
0.0
13.4
129
2015
11.4
128.3
1.0
3.1
14.7
0.0
14.5
143
2016
12.2
139.2
1.3
3.6
18.3
0.0
15.8
157
2017
13.5
150.8
1.9
4.1
22.4
0.0
17.6
173
2018
15.1
163.3
2.6
4.9
27.2
0.0
20.0
191
2019
16.6
176.4
3.5
5.9
33.1
0.0
22.5
209
2020
17.8
190.0
4.2
6.9
40.0
0.0
24.8
230
2021
17.1
202.0
5.1
7.7
47.7
0.0
24.8
250
2022
16.6
213.0
5.6
8.5
56.2
0.0
25.1
269
2023
15.6
223.0
5.6
9.3
65.5
0.0
24.9
288
2024
14.3
231.0
6.3
10.1
75.6
0.0
24.4
307
2025
13.1
237.0
7.1
10.9
86.5
0.0
24.0
323
2026
11.9
241.0
7.9
11.7
98.1
0.1
23.6
339
2027
11.2
244.0
8.2
12.5
110.4
0.2
23.7
354
2028
10.6
246.5
8.1
13.1
123.2
0.3
23.7
370
2029
10.5
248.5
8.5
13.3
136.4
0.1
23.8
385
2030
10.5
250.0
9.0
13.7
150.0
0.1
24.2
400
ANNEX 3: WIND ENERGY INSTALLATIONS 2000-2030
(GW)
Source: EWEA
PURE POWER 2009
74
Avg.
capacity
factor
onshore
Avg.
capacity
factor
offshore
Avg.
capacity
factor
Onshore
wind
energy
production
(TWh)
Offshore
wind
energy
production
(TWh)
Total wind
energy
production
(TWh)
Gross
electricity
consump-
tion
- 'Baseline
scenario'*
Gross
electricity
consump-
tion 'New
Energy
Policy'**
Wind
energy's
share of
electricity
consump-
tion
- Baseline
Wind
energy's
share of
electricity
consump-
tion - New
Energy
Policy
2000
19.9%
44.9%
20.0%
22
0
23
2,994
2,994
0.8%
0.8%
2001
21.0%
43.1%
21.1%
32
0
32
3,059
3,059
1.0%
1.0%
2002
21.7%
42.4%
22.0%
44
1
44
3,124
3,124
1.4%
1.4%
2003
22.4%
42.2%
22.7%
55
2
57
3,190
3,190
1.8%
1.8%
2004
22.7%
42.3%
23.1%
67
2
70
3,255
3,255
2.1%
2.1%
2005
23.0%
42.7%
23.4%
80
3
83
3,320
3,320
2.5%
2.5%
2006
23.3%
42.6%
23.7%
96
3
100
3,357
3,357
3.0%
3.0%
2007
23.6%
42.5%
24.0%
115
4
119
3,372
3,372
3.5%
3.5%
2008
23.7%
41.2%
24.1%
132
5
137
3,387
3,387
4.0%
4.0%
2009
23.9%
41.3%
24.3%
150
7
157
3,478
3,391
4.5%
4.6%
2010
24.1%
41.4%
24.7%
168
11
179
3,570
3,396
5.0%
5.3%
2011
24.3%
41.5%
25.1%
189
16
205
3,624
3,401
5.7%
6.0%
2012
24.5%
41.6%
25.5%
211
24
234
3,678
3,406
6.4%
6.9%
2013
24.7%
41.7%
26.0%
233
32
265
3,732
3,410
7.1%
7.8%
2014
24.9%
41.8%
26.4%
257
42
299
3,787
3,415
7.9%
8.8%
2015
25.1%
41.9%
26.8%
281
54
335
3,841
3,420
8.7%
9.8%
2016
25.2%
41.9%
27.2%
308
67
375
3,889
3,425
9.6%
10.9%
2017
25.4%
42.0%
27.6%
336
82
419
3,936
3,430
10.6%
12.2%
2018
25.6%
42.1%
28.0%
367
101
467
3,984
3,434
11.7%
13.6%
2019
25.8%
42.2%
28.4%
399
122
522
4,032
3,439
12.9%
15.2%
2020
26.0%
42.3%
28.9%
433
148
582
4,079
3,444
14.3%
16.9%
2021
26.1%
42.4%
29.2%
462
177
639
4,118
3,436
15.5%
18.6%
2022
26.2%
42.4%
29.6%
489
209
698
4,157
3,429
16.8%
20.4%
2023
26.3%
42.5%
30.0%
514
244
758
4,196
3,421
18.1%
22.2%
2024
26.4%
42.5%
30.4%
535
282
816
4,235
3,414
19.3%
23.9%
2025
26.5%
42.6%
30.8%
551
323
873
4,274
3,406
20.4%
25.6%
2026
26.6%
42.6%
31.3%
562
366
928
4,301
3,398
21.6%
27.3%
2027
26.7%
42.7%
31.7%
571
413
984
4,328
3,391
22.7%
29.0%
2028
26.8%
42.7%
32.1%
579
461
1,040
4,355
3,383
23.9%
30.8%
2029
26.9%
42.8%
32.5%
586
511
1,097
4,382
3,376
25.0%
32.5%
2030
27.0%
42.8%
33.0%
592
563
1,155
4,409
3,368
26.2%
34.3%
*
âEuropean Energy and Transport. Trends to 2030 - update 2007â; European Commission 2008.
** Up to 2020: Figures based on Commission staff working document accompanying âSecond Strategic Energy Review - An EU energy security and solidarity action planâ
{COM (2008) 781}; European Commission November 2008. From 2021-2030: âEuropean Energy and Transport, Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewablesâ -
Combines high renewables and efficiency case.
ANNEX 4: WIND ENERGY PRODUCTION AND SHARE OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION 2000-2030
Annex
75
PURE POWER 2009
Investment cost
onshore
(âŦ
2005
/kW)
Investment cost
offshore
(âŦ
2005
)/kW
Annual investmenst
onshore
(âŦ
2005
billion)
Annual investments
offshore
(âŦ
2005
billion)
Total wind power
capital investments
(âŦ
2005
billion)
2000
1,078
1,755
3.5
0.0
3.5
2001
900
1,755
3.9
0.1
4.0
2002
800
1,800
4.6
0.3
4.9
2003
900
1,850
4.7
0.5
5.2
2004
1,000
1,950
5.7
0.2
5.9
2005
1,150
2,050
7.0
0.2
7.2
2006
1,250
2,150
9.2
0.4
9.7
2007
1,300
2,300
10.8
0.5
11.3
2008
1,250
2,400
10.1
0.9
11.0
2009
1,200
2,400
9.8
1.0
10.9
2010
1,150
2,300
9.3
2.5
11.8
2011
1,050
2,200
10.0
3.3
13.3
2012
1,002
2,000
9.7
3.9
13.6
2013
955
1,800
9.6
4.3
13.9
2014
907
1,600
9.7
4.3
14.0
2015
859
1,475
9.8
4.6
14.3
2016
852
1,400
10.4
5.0
15.5
2017
846
1,350
11.4
5.6
17.0
2018
839
1,298
12.7
6.3
19.0
2019
833
1,286
13.8
7.5
21.4
2020
826
1,274
14.7
8.8
23.6
2021
822
1,267
14.0
9.8
23.8
2022
818
1,260
13.5
10.7
24.3
2023
815
1,254
12.7
11.7
24.4
2024
811
1,247
11.6
12.6
24.2
2025
807
1,240
10.6
13.5
24.1
2026
803
1,233
9.6
14.4
23.9
2027
799
1,226
9.0
15.3
24.3
2028
796
1,220
8.5
15.9
24.4
2029
792
1,213
8.3
16.1
24.4
2030
788
1,206
8.3
16.5
24.8
ANNEX 5: WIND ENERGY INVESTMENTS UP TO 2030
PURE POWER 2009
76
Mt CO
2
avoided/
TWh wind
CO
2
avoided
from onshore
wind (Mt)
CO
2
avoided
from onshore
wind (Mt)
Total CO
2
avoided from
wind (Mt)
Oil price
(in $
2007
/
barrel)*
Annual avoided
fuel cost âŦ
2007
billion
2000
0.789
18
0
18
2001
0.775
25
0
25
2002
0.761
33
1
34
2003
0.748
41
1
42
2004
0.736
49
2
51
2005
0.724
58
2
60
2006
0.704
68
2
70
2007
0.685
78
3
81
2008
0.667
88
4
91
94.8
6.5
2009
0.649
97
4
102
2010
0.633
106
7
113
100
8.7
2011
0.627
118
10
129
2012
0.622
131
15
146
2013
0.617
144
20
164
2014
0.613
157
26
183
2015
0.608
171
33
204
100
15.3
2016
0.600
185
40
225
2017
0.593
199
49
248
2018
0.585
215
59
274
2019
0.579
231
71
302
2020
0.572
248
85
333
110
27.7
2021
0.566
262
100
362
2022
0.561
275
117
392
2023
0.556
286
135
421
2024
0.550
294
155
449
2025
0.545
300
176
476
116
41.9
2026
0.540
304
198
501
2027
0.535
305
221
526
2028
0.529
307
244
550
2029
0.524
307
268
575
2030
0.518
307
292
599
122
55.8
*
Fuel price assumptions based on: âWorld Energy Outlook 2008â; International Energy Agency (IEA) 2008.
ANNEX 6: CO
2
AVOIDED FROM WIND
Annex
77
PURE POWER 2009
References
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EC, 2008a. European energy and transport â Trends to 2030 (update 2007); European Commission 2008
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PURE POWER 2009
78
Pure Power
Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030
A report by the European Wind Energy Association - 2009 update
Pure P
ow
er
EWEA
www.ewea.org
About EWEA
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