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OPINION 

 

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 96, NO. 12, 25 JUNE 2009 

1568 

Testing astrology 
 

Manoj Komath 

 
The commentary â€˜A statistical test of  
astrology’ by Narlikar 

et al.

1

 attracts  

attention as a pioneering attempt at the 
critical evaluation of ‘jyothisha’ (or 

 

Indian astrology). It marks the dawn of a 
new paradigm in Indian science, indicat-
ing the methods to scientifically test a 
body of knowledge branded as pseudo-
science. As it seems, the work did not get 
proper attention or exposure, despite the 
fact that it trails the most intense and 
elaborate debate in the history of 

Current 

Science

 (2000, 

79

, No. 9 through 2001, 

81

, No. 2), following the controversial 

decision of the University Grants Com-
mission (UGC) in 2001 to start graduate, 
postgraduate and research courses in ‘Jyotir 
vigyan’. The implications and ramifica-
tions of the work are worth discussing. 

The astrology muddle 

The UGC wanted ‘Vedic astrology’ (or 
jyothisha, the version of astrology prac-
tised in India) to be introduced in the 
science stream of the university curricu-
lum. However, the Indian scientific com-
munity and academia reacted vehemently 
against the UGC decision, as astrology 
has been considered as a pseudoscience 
lacking rational basis. The UGC portrayed 
jyothisha as an empirical science based 
on our traditional and classical know-
ledge, which can help the society to see 
the unforeseen, and having obvious and 
potential applications in meteorological 
studies, agricultural science, space sci-
ence, etc. 
  There remained a perplexing question; 
why did an apex academic body like the 
UGC regard astrology worthy to be con-
sidered as a science, as there was not even 
a remotely related evidence for claiming 
so? Nor any proponent of astrology was 
able to produce any statistically valid 
evidence that astrology can really foresee 
any event. Despite the apparent success 
in personal predictions, astrology used to 
fail pathetically in predicting social events 
like calamities or mishaps, which could 
have saved innumerable lives. Even the 
name â€˜Vedic astrology’ is identified as a 
misnomer, as the 

Vedas

 do not contain 

astrology

2

  On a closer look, it could be realized 
that the UGC had been echoing the feeling 
of the common public. Though astrology 
is practised globally, in India, jyothisha 
is deeply woven into the social fabric, 
and to a certain extent, remained a part 
of religion. People have their births as-
signed to ‘nakshatras’ (or lunar mansions) 
and consider their lives to be governed 
by â€˜dashas’ (the system of planetary  
periods). The UGC plan appeared to  
be a boon to the masses, as it would gen-
erate â€˜academically qualified’ astrologers 
(jyothishis), who could extend more reli-
able service to the people, to describe 
what destiny had in store for them. 
  The attempt of scientists and rationalists 
to resist the move of the UGC through 
special leave petition (SLP) was over-
thrown by the judiciary in 2004. The Su-
preme Court of India dismissed the 
petition, expressing the inappropriateness 
to interfere in the policy decision of the 
Government, unless it was found to be 
contrary to the law or made on extrane-
ous considerations (as reported in 

The 

Hindu

, internet edition, 6 May 2004). 

  It is quite disturbing for rational minds 
to see that science, despite the techno-
logical advances and practical useful-
ness, cannot win against the public appeal 
of pseudoscience. The developments 
were dismal, as there appeared to be no 
democratic way to reinstate rationality, 
the soul of scientific activities. The 
common public, who are not keen to 
know about scientific methods, may con-
sider scientists to be against the interests 
of the society. In their view, astrology 
has sound theories (based on astronomical 
data), and its own rules and techniques. 
And the practical success is validated by 
innumerable personal testimonies of cor-
rect predictions. Apparently it satisfies 
the criterion of a useful science. Above 
all, astrology enables the predictions of 
events in life, something science is not 
able to provide. No wonder, the common 
people tend to criticize scientists for their 
‘holier than thou’ approach. 
  It would be worthwhile to introspect as 
to why our approach appears dogmatic 
and becomes ineffective in front of the 
common public. Interestingly, our firm 
belief in the â€˜scientific method’ does not 

help in debunking astrology. The lack of 
theoretical basis cannot be put as a crite-
rion to reject astrological practices as 
baseless, because several branches of 
science have been established through 
empirical steps. We are confident about 
the well-structured theoretical framework 
related to the celestial phenomena. This 
elaborate knowledgebase in astronomy 
and cosmology, however, does not close 
the doors for new hypotheses on the 
planetary effects. The convention to de-
cide whether a body of knowledge is sci-
ence or not, is to conduct objective tests. 
  The general trend of scientists is to 
discard the success of astrology in pre-
dicting personal events as purely inci-
dental

2

. These ‘incidental successes’ 

cannot be ignored, as every believer in 
astrology would be able to give at least a 
few examples of prediction being right. 
Scientists never tried to explore, even for 
curiosity, the secrets of this apparent suc-
cess of astrology. We do not even have 
the preliminary data to convince a com-
mon man that his day-to-day experience 
with astrology is flawed or â€˜unscientific’. 
 Now, 

Narlikar 

et al.

1

 indicate a way 

out of this muddle, with a sensible inves-
tigation, namely testing the predictive 
power of astrology. The test, as they 
mentioned, is based on the investigations 
of Silverman

3

 and Carlson

4

. Unfortu-

nately, the report did not touch upon the 
intensive studies on Western astrology in 
the past decades, which had revolutionized 
our understanding of astrology in general. 

Studies on Western astrology 

Critical studies on astrology in the West 
have been conducted during the past six 
decades. By 2000, over one hundred pub-
lications had appeared in psychology 
journals and four hundred in astrology 
journals, as estimated by Smit 

(http:// 

www.rudolfhsmit.nl/u-gran1.htm

). This 

is equivalent to about 200 man-years  
of scientific research (with a text size of 
470,000 words!); however majority of 
the literature remains unknown. Ninety-
one typical studies could be traced on the 
internet (most of the available data were 
found compiled at 

http://www.astrology-

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CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 96, NO. 12, 25 JUNE 2009 

1569

and-science.com/

). It would be appropri-

ate to present here a concise review of 
these studies, as they may serve as good 
models for our endeavour of critically 
evaluating Indian astrology. 
  Till 1950, the scientific community 
had been continually discrediting astro-
logy as an illegitimate branch of know-
ledge or a pseudoscience. They did not 
find it worthy of serious investigation, as 
there was hardly any evidence to do so. 
The correlation between the positions of 
certain heavenly bodies and human 

 

affairs, as proposed by the astrologers, 
has been alleged to be a chance phe-
nomenon. The turning point came when 
the French psychologist and statistician, 
Michel Gauquelin, started rigorous 

 

studies on the claims of astrology by sta-
tistically comparing birth charts and pro-
fessions of large populations. In 1955, he 
arrived at a hypothesis called the ‘Mars 
effect’, which mentions that the rising 
and culmination of Mars at the time of 
birth has an apparent correlation to the 
career of athletes

5

  This was perplexing to the scientific 
community, because an objective evidence 
(though empirical) had emerged for the 
mysterious planetary effects on humans. 
It confused the astrologers as well, as the 
correlations obtained did not corroborate 
with the traditional astrological theories. 
The Mars effect was analysed for more 
than four decades by astrologers, psy-
chologists and skeptics. There were sev-
eral attempts to recheck and reanalyse 
the proposed ‘effect’, through statistical 
investigations of birth charts. The Mars 
effect has been rationally explained later, 
by correcting the artifacts and biases and 
with the help of additional data

6

  This opened up a new trend of investi-
gating astrology with a scientific spirit. 
The most notable consequence was the 
formation of the Astrological Associa-
tion in 1958 by research-minded British 
astrologers. They started designing and 
conducting investigations on various fea-
tures of astrology, taking care to avoid 
biases and arranging for peer review of 
the results. The outcomes of the first two 
decades (involving 54 researchers from 
ten countries) were compiled in the mas-
sive critical review 

Recent Advances in 

the Natal Astrology

, in 1978. This served 

as a precursor for the first refereed journal 
for astrology, i.e. 

Correlation

, launched 

in 1981. 
  The journal acted as a platform for 
scientists and astrologers to exchange 

their ideas and rationally approach the 
subject. Since its inception, about 70-odd 
studies have been published in it, most of 
which produced negative results on the 
alleged predictive power of astrology. 
The positive ones, did not correlate with 
the basic principles followed tradition-
ally in astrology. This, of course, led to 
discontentment amongst the astrologers 
and to interruptions in the publication of 
the journal. 

Validity of natal charts and ability 
of the astrologers 

The initiatives in Great Britain provided 
a better insight for other researchers to 
plan and conduct critical investigations 
on a subject like astrology. Regular out-
comes could be seen from early 1970s 
onwards. 
  A notable work among the earliest 
published studies is by Barth and Ben-
nett, in which the relationship between 
the zodiac signs of a set of population 
and their occupation, medical problems, 
height and longevity was examined. The 
positions of Mercury, Venus, Mars and 
Jupiter at the time of birth did not show 
any correlation with any of these para-
meters

7

  There were intensive efforts to verify 
the alleged relationship between sun signs 
and occupations, in various extents and 
combinations. Three consecutive studies 
during 1976–79 failed to reveal any such 
correlations

8

. John McGervey looked at 

biographies and birth dates of some 6000 
politicians and 17,000 scientists, to see if 
members of these professions would clus-
ter among certain signs, as astrologers 
predict. He found the signs of both 
groups to be distributed completely at 
random

9

. No correlation was found bet-

ween occupation and sun sign in other 
studies also done in the same line

10

  In the famous ‘New York suicide 
study’, Press 

et al.

11

 examined the birth 

charts of 311 suicide cases in New York 
from 1969 to 1973. A computer program 
was used to test 100,000 different astro-
logical factors in each case and these 
were compared with an equal number of 
random control subjects. None of the fac-
tors consistently correlated with the sui-
cide cases. 
  Another topic investigated was the 
compatibility of signs in marriages. It is 
a popular practice in civilian life to 
choose partners born under compatible 

signs, of course, after seeking advice 
from an expert astrologer. Silverman

looked at the birth dates of 2978 couples 
who were getting married and 478 who 
were getting divorced in Michigan. He 
found that astrological compatibility of 
the horoscopes did not correspond to 
compatibility in real life. All the well-
conducted statistical studies negated the 
predictions based on natal charts depend-
ing on the conventional astrological theo-
ries.  
  In 1987, Dean

12 

conducted an interest-

ing experiment by reversing all of the 
‘planetary aspects’ of natal charts. He 
procured correct natal data from astrolo-
gers for the subjects and for half of the 
subjects, the charts were fabricated by 
retaining the sun sign and reversing all 
the planetary aspects. The charts were 
then blindly given to astrologers for their 
predictions about the subjects. There was 
no correlation between the perceived ac-
curacy of the charts and whether the sub-
ject was given a correct or reversed chart. 
  The skill of astrologers in their profes-
sion also has been subjected to investiga-
tion. Culver and Ianna

13 

conducted a 

double-blind test on an astrologer who 
claimed 80% success rate in choosing the 
correct natal horoscope for a subject out 
of three false ones. The astrologer had 
seven successes out of 28 trials, exactly 
the number predicted by chance. In 

 

another study

10

, six expert astrologers  

independently attempted to read 23 astro-
logical birth charts to identify the corre-
sponding personal data files of each 
person (four male and 19 female volun-
teers). The files, which were provided 
blinded, contained life histories, full-face 
and profile photographs and personality 
test profiles of each subject. Astrologers 
did no better than chance or than a non-
astrologer control subject at matching the 
birth charts to the personal data. Also, 
different astrologers failed to agree with 
one another's predictions. 

Sun signs and personality 

The core feature of Western astrology is 
the assignment of the ‘sun sign’ (the  
solar mansion corresponding to one’s 
birth) to the personality. For this reason, 
the correlation between sun sign and per-
sonality became a favourite topic in 

 

astrological research. In an early study, 
Pellegrini

14 

found a small correlation 

 

between the femininity index (based on 

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Astrology and psychology â€“ The Forer effect 

The proof for the success of astrology are the personal testimonies of its believers. Though astrology fails patheti-
cally in general predictions of events in the society, it is highly successful in predicting in the case of individuals. 
Even non-believers sometime find uncannily accurate hits in their predictions. This irony could be explained with the 
‘Forer effect’ (also called or the ‘Barnum effect’), a psychological bias originating from an individual’s affinity to  
descriptions touching his/her personality. This bias (called the personal validation fallacy) prompts a person to take  
descriptions which are vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people, to be tailored specifically for them. 
  The predilection of people to believe positive statements about themselves (even when there is no particular rea-
son to do so) has been exploited professionally by P. T. Barnum, the 19th century American showman and enter-
tainer. In 1948, Bertram R. Forer, an American psychologist, tried to approach it academically and designed a 
classroom demonstration (

J. Abnormal Soc. Psychol.

, 1949, 

44

, 118–123). He gave his students a personality 

analysis to rate themselves on a scale of 0 (very poor) to 5 (excellent). The text of the analysis was as follows â€“ 
‘You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have 
some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused  
capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be 
worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right  
decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when 
hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept  
others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to 
others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and  
reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic’. Though all the students were provided with the 
same personality analysis (obviously coined from newspaper â€˜sun sign’ columns), the class average evaluation was 
4.26 out of 5. The Forer test has been repeated hundreds of times over the years and the average was still around 
4.2 out of 5 (84% accuracy). 
  In short, Forer convinced people that it is possible to â€˜read the character’ successfully, without any additional  
divine powers. This personal validation fallacy works behind the widespread acceptance of astrology and other 
practices like palmistry and fortune-telling. 

 

 
California Personality Inventory) and 
season of birth. However, the follow-up 
studies did not show any correlation bet-
ween sun sign and personality traits as 
measured by standardized psychological 
tests

15–17

. Mayes and Klugh

18

 compiled 

natal charts and results of the Leary  
Interpersonal Check List for 196 sub-
jects. The data were used to compare 13 
personality traits with the sun signs and 
signs and houses of the moon and eight 
planets, at five planetary aspects. No sta-
tistically valid correlations were found. 
Some studies, which recorded correla-
tions between astrological factors and 
behaviour, were later proved to be 
flawed

19

 Gauquelin, continuing his earlier 

 

efforts to test astrology, compiled per-
sonality profiles from 2000 biographies 
of sportsmen, actors, scientists and writ-
ers, and compared them with personality 
traits associated with the sign of the sun, 
moon and ascendant according to eight 
astrology texts. He failed to detect any 
correlation either in sidereal or tropical 
zodiac

20

  This was followed by the most cele-
brated study by Carlson

4

, which tested 

the thesis that astrological natal charts 
can be used to describe accurately the 
personality traits of the test subjects (the 

method is summarized by Narlikar 

et 

al.

1

). The Carlson study stood apart in its 

double-blind design, meeting the strin-
gent specifications of both scientific and 
astrological communities. Even after 
making efforts to ensure that the experi-
ment was free of bias and giving astrol-
ogy reasonable chances to succeed, the 
astrologers failed to perform better than 
chance

4

  In 2001, Dean and Kelly

21 

conducted a 

meta-analysis of more than 40 studies 
which dealt with the correlation of birth 
charts and information such as personal-
ity profiles or case histories. The studies, 
published between 1975 and 2000, in-
corporated in total nearly 700 astrologers 
and 1150 birth charts. The meta-analysis 
put forward the conclusion that â€˜ . . . there 
is clearly nothing here to suggest that as-
trologers can perform usefully better 
than chance, once hidden persuaders are 
controlled’. 

The Pune experiment 

The work by Narlikar 

et al.

1

, which tests 

the predictive power of natal astrology, 
should be viewed in this background. 
Their experiment (the Pune experiment) 
gains importance as the first venture in 

India to critically investigate astrology. 
As mentioned by the authors, it is mod-
elled on the 25-year old double-blind de-
sign of Carlson

4

. The criterion of 

choosing personality indices used in the 
original study is reduced here to the two 
parameters of intellectual brightness and 
mental retardation. This variation is jus-
tified, considering the difficulty in 

 

accessing standardized personality inven-
tories in the country. However, it would 
have been much simpler, though counter-
intuitive, to test the prediction of gender, 
which is a more clearly definable than 
mental abilities. In jyothisha, gender is 
the prime parameter in a horoscope and a 
double-blind prediction of whether the 
horoscope-holder is male or female, will 
reveal the validity of horoscope-reading. 
  Though the Pune experiment is appar-
ently convincing, it is not free from arti-
facts â€“ like the bias in reporting the birth 
time, possible ambiguities in remember-
ing the correct birth time, the â€˜Ayanamsa’ 
correction applied during birth-chart 
making, etc. In addition, the low popula-
tion size makes the conclusion statisti-
cally weak. In a recent study, Hartmann 

et al.

22

 used a staggering sample size of 

15,000! (This study investigated the rela-
tionship between date of birth and indi-
vidual differences in personality and 

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general intelligence, and the results were 
negative, corroborating with earlier stud-
ies on the topic.) In jyothisha, the parame-
ters are more individualized than in 
Western astrology, which necessitate 
more elaborate studies on a larger popu-
lation to arrive at a sound conclusion. 
  One should be cautious while depend-
ing on the studies on Western astrology 
for designing tests, because it will be less 
meaningful to extrapolate the methods to 
jyothisha. Though natal chart-making is 
common to both Indian and Western tra-
ditions, jyothisha differs with the use of 
the sidereal zodiac (which links the signs 
of the zodiac to their original constella-
tions), lunar mansions (nakshatras) and 
the system of â€˜planetary periods’ in hu-
man life (dashas). The Western tradition 
is centred on the â€˜sun signs’ and uses the 
tropical zodiac (in which the signs do not 
correspond to their original constella-
tions). Therefore, the essential features 
of jyothisha should be tested individually 
for validity. Many different and inde-
pendent studies (for example, correlation 
of nakshatras and personality factors 
predicted in the texts, validity of the 
dasha system in personal life, etc.) are to 
be performed and meta-analyses of such 
results are to be conducted to draw a 
meaningful opinion. 
  Considering these facts, the conclusion 
‘

 

.

 

.

 

. the test clearly demonstrated the 

hollowness of the basic claim of astro-
logy

 

.

 

.

 

.

 

’ of Narlikar 

et al.

seems too 

premature. The study, at best, implies 
that natal astrology cannot be used to 
predict mental abilities! Nor a study of 
the divorce rates (as suggested by the au-
thors) would contribute anything signifi-
cant to the venture of critical investigation 
of the validity of jyothisha. 

Time-twin studies 

Now we arrive at a big question â€“ how 
far will these scientific tests help us dis-
cern whether astrology is a science or 
not? A review of the critical studies on 
Western astrology signifies that astro-
logy fails to prove itself in double-blind 
controlled tests. But the negative results, 
even when they are cumulative, have 
been justified and dismissed in many dif-
ferent ways by astrologers (arguments 
like ‘the stars incline, but do not compel’, 
or â€˜neither the astrologer nor the tech-
nique is infallible’), allowing them to 
maintain their belief in astrology, what-

ever the evidence or criticism

23

. The fate 

of the proposed studies on jyothisha may 
not be different. 
  The most important point here is that 
the investigations discussed and methods 
suggested are in fact a search for proof of 
evidence related to astrological practice. 
The absence of evidence (i.e. lack of cor-
relation of the actual outcomes with the 
fundamental tenets of traditional texts), 
however, may not negate astrology. As-
trologers can still argue that it is just a 
failure of the traditional texts of astro-
logy and may propose that new correla-
tion can exist (as Gauquelin

20

 did when 

his studies failed to support conventional 
astrology). True scientific investigation 
is a search for the underlying pheno-
menon hypothesized by astrologers, 
which can cause planetary effects. 
  The phenomenon is presumably cer-
tain mysterious powers of planets which 
operate synergistically on mundane 

 

humans, thereby controlling lives and 
events. Interestingly, this hypothetical 
mechanism starts to operate on an indi-
vidual at the time of his/her birth, imply-
ing that the power is impermeable to the 
human womb! Obviously it is difficult to 
conceive a mechanism which switches on 
at the time of birth and selectively affects 
human personality and life. Nor do any 
of the known theories in astrophysics  
and cosmology support a materialistic 
mechanism. 
  These facts, however, do not prevent 
us from hypothesizing such an effect! 
One may wonder whether a celestial 
phenomenon which enables the predic-
tion of events in life could be operative, 
which still eludes scientific methodo-
logy. Albert Einstein proposed general 
relativity about a century ago, which  
seemed beyond commonsense then. Cur-
rently physics accepts dark matter and 
dark energy, the nature of which is not 
supported by any of the current theories. 
Therefore, we cannot refute astrology on 
the basis of current scientific understand-
ing. The method of science tells us to 
search for the presence or evidence of 
such a phenomenon, whether the hypo-
thesis makes sense or not. 
 Astrologers attribute the personal 
variations among the various individuals 
to this effect, which is apparently con-
vincing for a common man. But, if that is 
to be taken as evidence, the converse 
also should be true â€“ i.e. two people born 
at the same time at the same place should 
share similar personal characteristics and 

the same patterns of life. That makes the 
venture of testing the scientific validity 
of astrology incredibly simple. One has 
to pick out people born at the same time 
at the same place (the time-twins) and 
compare their personal attributes and life 
events. If they have exceptional similari-
ties than expected by chance, it could be 
taken as the scientific evidence for as-
trology (biological twins will not be suit-
able for this study because genetic and 
circumstantial similarities may operate 
predominantly). It is to be noted that 
birth-chart making and horoscope-reading 
are not involved, thereby eliminating  
errors and uncertainties, and the ability 
of the astrologers. As the proposed 

 

effects will be common to both Western 
astrology and jyothisha, the issue of dif-
ference in the zodiac references will not 
come into picture. Thus a time-twin 
study becomes a simple, straightforward, 
definitive and universal test for the sci-
entific basis of astrology. 
  Earliest thought on this line was that 
of John Addey

24

, a professional astrologer, 

who conducted a study on a set of time-
twins. However, the population was too 
small to derive any statistically valid 
conclusion. The first systematic study of 
time-twins has been reported by British 
astrologers, Peter Roberts and Helen 
Greengrass

25

, in which 128 people born 

not more than an hour apart on six dates 
during 1934–64 were included. Though 
some evidence of similarities in interests 
and occupation appeared among 18 pairs, 
it was not strong as predicted by astro-
logy. Nevertheless, the authors claimed 
that in the full sample, the proportion of 
‘close resemblers’ increased as the birth 
interval decreased. This interesting 

 

work was scrutinized by contemporary 
researchers and a re-analysis revealed 
some procedural artifacts

26

. When these 

artifacts were controlled, the alleged 
similarity disappeared. 
  A more powerful, systematic and 
elaborate test has been designed by Dean 
and Kelly

27

 involving 2101 persons born 

in London during 3–9 March 1958. The 
birth data were collected from hospital 
records ensuring the reliability, and the 
astrological aspects were included with 
the advice of seven leading astrologers. 
The subjects were born on average 
4.8 min apart, simultaneous enough for 
same astrological factors to operate upon. 
Each person was tracked for measure-
ments at ages 11, 16 and 23 years, for 
110 relevant variables, which are 

 

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OPINION 

 

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 96, NO. 12, 25 JUNE 2009 

1572 

supposed to be shown in the birth chart. 
The variables include test scores (for IQ, 
reading and arithmetic), physical data 
(such as height, weight, vision and hear-
ing), ratings of teachers and parents 

 

(regarding behaviours such as anxiety, 
aggressiveness and sociability) and self-
ratings (of ability such as art, music and 
sports) along with various other factors 
(such as occupation, being accident-prone 
and marital status). Curiously enough, 
the control data were sixteen variables 
for the mothers of each of these persons 
(such as age, blood pressure and length 
of labour, etc.), which are not supposed 
to be affected by planetary positions. 
  When the subjects were arranged in 
chronological order of birth, 2100 suc-
cessive pairs of time-twins resulted. Sev-
enty-three per cent were born 5 min apart 
or less, and only 4% were born more 
than 15 min apart. The similarity bet-
ween time-twins for each variable was 
then measured as the serial correlation 
between successive pairs. The serial cor-
relation is a direct measure of effect size 
and here, it is extremely sensitive due to 
the large sample size. So the test condi-
tions could hardly have been more con-
ducive to success. 
  According to astrology the statistical 
results should be strongly positive for 
subject variables and zero for mother 
variables. The mean serial correlation for 
subjects (1393, for which complete data 
were available, with 110 variables) was  
–0.003 and for the mothers (2066 with 
16 variables) was 0.001. Both could be 
considered effectively zero. The differ-
ence (–0.004) is in the wrong direction 
and non-significant (

P

 = 0.56,  measured 

by 

t

-test). Nor did the 110 individual  

serial correlations show any support for 
astrology â€“ only five were significant at 
the 

P

 = 0.05 level, whereas 5.5 were  

expected by chance

27

Concluding remarks 

The extensive critical studies done on 
Western astrology for the past 60 years 
have established that the astrologers are 
not able to predict beyond chance. The 
time-twin studies negate the basic 
mechanism of planetary powers hypothe-
sized in astrology. There are now suffi-
cient evidences to conclude that science 
wins over astrology. These studies give 

us a good roadmap to approach pseudo-
science. The same strategy should be fol-
lowed in the case of jyothisha in India. 
  At the same time it should be realized 
that such a venture, being just a search 
for evidence of hypotheses, has no grave 
scientific relevance; nor is it likely to 
contribute anything to knowledge. Scien-
tists and institutions in astronomy and 
cosmology need not spend valuable funds 
and manpower just to reinvent that sci-
ence is right. It is better to disseminate 
the idea to school students or under-
graduates in humanities (preferably psy-
chology or sociology), to be executed as 
project work in their curriculum. 
  Whatever the efforts we plan to put in, 
the results of the studies are not likely to 
bring about any drastic change in the ap-
proach of Indians towards jyothisha, for 
some pertinent reasons. One of the fac-
tors is the mindset of the public, to  
believe that astrology is able to provide 
some control over unexpected variables 
in life. Astrologers extend them low-
cost, non-threatening therapy for mun-
dane worries (ranging from marriage 

 

alliance to stock-market investment), that 
is otherwise hard to come by. We cannot 
deny the fact that our social psychology 
is so weak to accept astrology as a  
human need. The challenge here is to 
penetrate the social mind and try to 
strengthen it. Another factor is the busi-
ness aspects. Astrological practice has 
proliferated extensively in the modern 
era with the help of technology making it 
ubiquitous, available on phone lines, 
television channels and the internet. This 
has opened up new business opportuni-
ties. Astrological practice in India has 
become a lucrative industry in its own 
right, which is worth Rs 40,000 crore 
(

Outlook

, 22 November 2004). Involving 

the younger generation in our venture of 
testing astrology will hopefully help in 
phasing out this unscrupulous business 
during the span of the next few genera-
tions. 
 

 

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Manoj Komath lives in Flat No. B6, 
Biomedical Technology Wing, Sree Chi-
tra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences 
and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram 
695 012, India. 
e-mail: manoj@scientist.com