Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Fausto
21 August - 03 September 2002
James L. Franklin
National Hurricane Center 6 December 2002
Hurricane Fausto was a long-lived category 4 hurricane (on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that did not affect any land areas.
After degenerating to a remnant low in the Central North Pacific
basin, Fausto was reborn as a tropical depression and later as a
tropical storm.
a. Synoptic History
Fausto developed from a tropical wave that crossed the
west-African coast on 11 August and entered the eastern North
Pacific basin on 17 August. By late on 18 August the system
acquired enough organization to be classified using the Dvorak
technique. By the following day a broad closed circulation was
present, but the convective pattern had weakened. Early on 21
August the system began to reorganize and at 1200 UTC became a
tropical depression about 400 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.
The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given
in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in
Figure 2
and Figure 3, respectively.
The best track positions and intensities are
listed in Table 1. The depression initially moved westward and
strengthened, becoming a tropical storm at 0000 UTC 22 August,
about 450 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo. Fausto turned to the
west-northwest, a heading it would maintain for the next six days,
and steadily strengthened, becoming a hurricane later that day at
1800 UTC, when it was about 565 n mi south-southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico. Steady and significant strengthening continued, with
Fausto reaching its peak intensity of 125 kt at 1200 UTC 24 August,
roughly 60 hours after becoming a tropical storm. At the time of
peak intensity Fausto was located about 800 n mi southwest of Cabo
San Lucas.
By 0000 25 August, deep convection in the eyewall of Fausto
began to diminish, and a weakening trend began, one that was nearly
as steady as the intensification had been. Fausto crossed the 26C
SST isotherm near midday on 25 August, and had become a tropical
storm again by 1200 UTC the following day. Even though Fausto
subsequently failed to generate any more deep convection (and
therefore was arguably no longer a tropical cyclone), its large
circulation was slow to spin down. Winds did not fall below
tropical storm strength until 0000 UTC 28 August, shortly after
Fausto crossed 140 W longitude and entered the central Pacific
basin. Fausto is considered to have become a remnant low by 1200
UTC 28 August.
The remnant low of Fausto continued on a westward track, passing
about 430 n mi north of the Hawaiian Islands on 30 August. During
the day the surface circulation passed underneath an upper-level
low and redeveloped deep convection. With the redevelopment of
convection Fausto became a tropical depression again at 1800 UTC 30
August, although it did have some subtropical characteristics;
scatterometer passes and satellite imagery indicated that the
strongest winds and convection were located over 120 n mi east of
the center. Fausto moved to the west-northwest on 31 August, and
during the day the upper-level flow over the center gradually
changed from cyclonic to anticyclonic. (A scatterometer pass at
1642 UTC 1 September indicates that the surface wind field was
contracting as the upper-level anticyclonic flow developed.) Fausto
strengthened and became a tropical storm later on 1 September. On 2
September, Fausto turned north and accelerated ahead of a
mid-latitude frontal system, becoming absorbed by an extratropical
low shortly after 0000 UTC the next day.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Fausto (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
include satellite-based
Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the
U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).
Ship PFEW (Jo Lonn) reported 35 kt
winds at 0000 UTC 24 August and again at 0000 UTC 25 August. These
observations are given in Table 2.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with
Fausto.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Forecasts on Fausto were issued by both the National Hurricane
Center (NHC) and by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center; only the
NHC forecast verification is presented here. Average official track
errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) for Fausto were 21
(21), 42 (20), 54 (18), 74 (16), and 120 (12) n mi for the 12, 24,
36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively. These errors are
substantially lower than the average official track errors for the
10-yr period 1992-2001 (36, 67, 97, 125, and 182 n mi,
respectively), (Table 4). The Global Forecast System ensemble mean
(AEMI) and the GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS consensus (GUNA) were among
the best performing of the guidance models.
Average official intensity errors were 8, 13, 16, 19 and 23 kt
for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively. These
were slightly above the long-term averages (7, 12, 16, 18, and 21
kt, respectively), although mostly smaller than the errors from the
SHIPS and GFDI guidance models. Although overall the intensity
forecast biases were low, the official forecasts systematically
under-forecast intensity changes during both the strengthening and
weakening phases.
Table 1: Best track for Hurricane Fausto, 21 August - 03
September 2002.
Date/Time (UTC) | Position | Pressure (mb) | Wind Speed (kt) | Stage |
Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) |
21 / 1200 | 12.8 | 106.9 | 1006 | 25 | tropical depression |
21 / 1800 | 12.8 | 107.7 | 1005 | 30 | " |
22 / 0000 | 12.8 | 108.6 | 1004 | 35 | tropical storm |
22 / 0600 | 13.0 | 109.7 | 1000 | 45 | " |
22 / 1200 | 13.2 | 111.0 | 994 | 55 | " |
22 / 1800 | 13.7 | 112.3 | 987 | 65 | hurricane |
23 / 0000 | 14.2 | 113.7 | 979 | 70 | " |
23 / 0600 | 14.5 | 115.1 | 976 | 80 | " |
23 / 1200 | 14.7 | 116.5 | 966 | 90 | " |
23 / 1800 | 15.0 | 117.9 | 962 | 100 | " |
24 / 0000 | 15.2 | 119.2 | 952 | 110 | " |
24 / 0600 | 15.3 | 120.5 | 942 | 120 | " |
24 / 1200 | 15.7 | 121.8 | 936 | 125 | " |
24 / 1800 | 16.1 | 122.9 | 936 | 125 | " |
25 / 0000 | 16.6 | 124.0 | 942 | 120 | " |
25 / 0600 | 17.2 | 125.2 | 952 | 110 | " |
25 / 1200 | 17.8 | 126.5 | 966 | 95 | " |
25 / 1800 | 18.5 | 127.9 | 970 | 90 | " |
26 / 0000 | 19.4 | 129.3 | 973 | 85 | " |
26 / 0600 | 20.2 | 130.7 | 981 | 75 | " |
26 / 1200 | 20.9 | 132.1 | 990 | 60 | tropical storm |
26 / 1800 | 21.4 | 133.9 | 997 | 50 | " |
27 / 0000 | 22.0 | 135.6 | 1000 | 45 | " |
27 / 0600 | 22.6 | 137.0 | 1002 | 40 | " |
27 / 1200 | 23.4 | 138.4 | 1005 | 35 | " |
27 / 1800 | 24.3 | 139.8 | 1005 | 35 | " |
28 / 0000 | 25.3 | 141.2 | 1008 | 30 | tropical depression |
28 / 0600 | 26.3 | 142.8 | 1010 | 30 | " |
28 / 1200 | 26.8 | 145.0 | 1011 | 30 | low |
28 / 1800 | 27.0 | 147.0 | 1012 | 30 | " |
29 / 0000 | 27.3 | 149.2 | 1012 | 25 | " |
29 / 0600 | 27.5 | 151.3 | 1012 | 25 | " |
29 / 1200 | 27.8 | 153.3 | 1013 | 25 | " |
29 / 1800 | 27.9 | 154.7 | 1013 | 25 | " |
30 / 0000 | 28.1 | 155.4 | 1012 | 30 | " |
30 / 0600 | 28.6 | 156.1 | 1012 | 30 | " |
30 / 1200 | 29.3 | 156.7 | 1012 | 30 | " |
30 / 1800 | 30.0 | 157.3 | 1012 | 30 | tropical depression |
31 / 0000 | 30.9 | 158.0 | 1012 | 30 | " |
31 / 0600 | 31.9 | 159.0 | 1012 | 30 | " |
31 / 1200 | 32.4 | 160.5 | 1012 | 30 | " |
31 / 1800 | 32.9 | 162.3 | 1010 | 30 | " |
01 / 0000 | 33.3 | 163.8 | 1009 | 30 | " |
01 / 0600 | 33.8 | 165.0 | 1009 | 30 | " |
01 / 1200 | 34.3 | 166.3 | 1009 | 30 | " |
01 / 1800 | 34.6 | 167.4 | 1009 | 35 | tropical storm |
02 / 0000 | 35.1 | 168.4 | 1009 | 35 | " |
02 / 0600 | 35.7 | 169.2 | 1009 | 35 | " |
02 / 1200 | 37.2 | 170.0 | 1011 | 35 | " |
02 / 1800 | 40.0 | 170.3 | 1014 | 35 | " |
03 / 0000 | 43.1 | 169.8 | 1016 | 35 | " |
03 / 0600 | | | | | absorbed by extratropical low |
24 / 1200-1800 | | | 936 | 125 | minimum pressure |
Table 2: Ship reports with winds of at
least 34 kt for Hurricane Fausto, 21 August - 03 September
2002.
Ship Name or Call Sign | Date/Time (UTC) | Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) | Wind dir/speed (deg/kt) | Pressure (mb) |
PFEW | 24 / 0000 | 10.5 | 114.9 | 200/35 | 1011.9 |
PFEW | 25 / 0000 | 11.2 | 120.7 | 170/35 | 1012.0 |
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Table 3: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample)
for Hurricane Fausto. Forecast errors for tropical storm and
hurricane stages (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in
parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are
shown in bold-face type.
Forecast Technique | Period (hours) |
12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 |
CLP5 | 40 (22) | 94 (20) | 143 (18) | 201 (16) | 285 (12) |
GFDI | 28 (21) | 58 (20) | 85 (18) | 114 (16) | 191 (12) |
GFDL | 24 (22) | 51 (20) | 74 (18) | 100 (16) | 165 (12) |
LBAR | 27 (22) | 55 (20) | 81 (18) | 111 (16) | 157 (12) |
AVNI | 25 (21) | 39 (20) | 58 (18) | 81 (16) | 137 (12) |
AVNO | 33 (22) | 41 (20) | 55 (18) | 70 (16) | 118 (12) |
AEMI | 23 (15) | 38 (14) | 49 (12) | 68 (11) | 120 ( 8) |
BAMD | 30 (22) | 58 (20) | 81 (18) | 103 (16) | 150 (12) |
BAMM | 26 (22) | 42 (20) | 52 (18) | 68 (16) | 108 (12) |
BAMS | 28 (22) | 42 (20) | 52 (18) | 77 (16) | 158 (12) |
NGPI | 29 (21) | 52 (20) | 89 (18) | 133 (16) | 210 (12) |
NGPS | 34 (20) | 44 (19) | 74 (17) | 116 (15) | 205 (12) |
UKMI | 24 (21) | 42 (20) | 64 (18) | 82 (16) | 92 (12) |
UKM | 30 (11) | 46 (10) | 60 ( 9) | 80 ( 8) | 100 ( 6) |
GUNS | 22 (21) | 42 (20) | 65 (18) | 91 (16) | 148 (12) |
GUNA | 19 (21) | 32 (20) | 47 (18) | 69 (16) | 118 (12) |
OFCL | 21 (21) | 42 (20) | 54 (18) | 74 (16) | 120 (12) |
NHC Official (1992-2001 mean) | 36 (2203) | 67 (1947) | 97 (1700) | 125 (1472) | 182 (1091) |
*Output from these models was unavailable at time of forecast issuance. |
Figure 1:
Best track
positions for Hurricane Fausto, 21 August - 03 September
2002.
Figure 2:
Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Fausto, 21
August - 03 September 2002. Objective Dvorak estimates represent
linear averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal
observation time.
Figure 3:
Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Fausto, 21
August - 03 September 2002. Objective Dvorak estimates represent
linear averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal
observation time.
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