Secure energy: options for a safer world
ENERGY SECURITY AND URANIUM RESERVES
Jan Willem Storm
van Leeuwen
bio...
A new generation of nuclear reactors will increase demand for uranium ore to produce reactor fuel.
In 2005 the world nuclear fleet consumed about 68,000 tonnes of natural uranium, mostly from
mined sources. At the end of 2005 the world known recoverable uranium resources amounted
to about 3.6 million tonnes (t).
These resources show a wide variation in ore grade and
accessibility. Understanding this variation is essential for assessing nuclear energy security
.
Uranium ore is not an energy resource unless the ore grade is high enough. Below grade 0.02%
(U
3
O
8
Uranium Oxide) more energy is required to produce and exploit the uranium fuel than can be
generated from it. Falling ore grade leads to rapidly rising CO
2
emissions from the nuclear energy cycle.
Assuming world nuclear generating capacity remains at 2005 levels, after about 2016 the mean
grade of uranium ore will fall significantly from today’s levels, and even more so after 2034.
After about 60 years the world nuclear power system will fall off the ‘Energy Cliff’ – meaning that
the nuclear system will consume as much energy as can be generated from the uranium fuel.
Whether large and rich new uranium ore deposits will be found or not is unknown.
Once high-grade uranium ores are no-longer available, the nuclear industry will rely on uranium
and plutonium from military and civil stockpiles. These will last only a few years, and questions
remain about the net energy gain from reprocessing these materials. In the future, it is likely that
the nuclear industry and governments will look to MOX fuel – a mixture of uranium and plutonium
dioxides. In time, the nuclear industry hopes to develop fast breeder reactors fueled by weapons
useable plutonium. The widespread use and production of either fuel has serious implications
for nuclear weapons proliferation and the risk of nuclear terrorism.
It is inevitable that replacements for uranium fuel will be sought within the lifetime of any new
nuclear build in the UK. It is also inevitable that as high grade uranium supplies decrease, the
cost of nuclear power will increase along with nuclear CO
2
emissions. The security risks
associated with MOX and plutonium fuel should not be underestimated. These concerns should be
reviewed by Government, Parliament and the public before a decision is taken on the future of nuclear power.
SUMMARY
Jan Willem
Storm van Leeuwen
Independent nuclear
analyst, Ceedata
Consulting
July 2006
Factsheet 4
This graph assumes that
no new large and rich
deposits are found during
the next decades and that
world nuclear capacity
remains at 2005 levels.
It is based on a total
resource of about 4.2
millions metric tonnes.
(Including resources of
lower quality which the
OECD / NEA figure of
3.6 million metric tonnes
currently excludes.)
Note that the largest
uranium deposits have
ore grades lower than
0.1%, which is 100 to
1000 times poorer than
those used today.
Graph 1: Depletion of world known recoverable resources, 2006 - 2076
Each bar in this graph represents a group of uranium resources
(indicated by the radiation sign) of a certain quality. The length of
each bar represents the number of years that group of resources
will last. The height of each bar represents the range in ore grade.
This factsheet is
based on a full
technical paper
by J. W. Storm van
Leeuwen and
P. B. Smith,
available from
the ORG website.
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Oxford
Research
Group
Secure Energy: Options for a Safer World
2
Nuclear energy security timeline 2006 - 2076
Year
2006
2016
2026
2036
2056 -
2066
2066 -
2076
Following the UK Energy Review, this timeline is based on a scenario of ten new Light Water Reactors
in the UK to be authorised in 2006, with the first unit going online in 2016 and the 10th (last one)
in 2026 (a completion rate of one unit each year). This scenario also assumes that world nuclear
capacity remains at 2005 levels.
Ore grade
This refers to the proportion of uranium-235 in 1t of ore.
It affects (a) the amount of energy needed to produce
uranium fuel, and (b) the amount of CO
2
emissions
produced from that fuel. If the ore is 0.1% U
3
O
8
then
1t of ore has to be processed to obtain 1kg of uranium.
Event
Authorise new nuclear build in the UK
First new nuclear power plant online
10
th
new nuclear power plant online
Full fleet in operation
First nuclear power plant closes
10th nuclear power plant closes
Rich ores in Canada mined. World mean value of
available uranium ore grade is 0.15% U
3
0
8
.
Rich ores depleted. Mean available uranium
ore grade is equal or less than 0.1%.
Mean grade slowly declining.
Mean ore grade falls to about 0.07% U
3
0
8
Approaching energy cliff. High CO
2
emissions.
Uranium fueled nuclear reactors have fallen
off the energy cliff and produce more CO
2
emissions than a gas-fired power plant.
Energy costs energy
Generating electricity from uranium fuel
depends on a system of industrial processes
known as the nuclear process chain. The three
main phases are:
1.
Converting a uranium bearing rock into
nuclear fuel.
2.
Constructing, operating, maintaining and
refurbishing of the nuclear power plant.
The mean operating lifetime is assumed
to be 40 years.
3.
Waste management, dismantling of the
reactor, construction of a geological repository
to isolate the waste.
Each process comsumes energy, consequently
each process, except the reactor itself,
emits CO
2
. The process needed to convert
uranium into nuclear fuel most likely also emits
greenhouse gases (GHGs) other than CO
2
.
The energy debt
Uranium fuel production, plant construction
and most importantly, dismantling nuclear
power plants, needs energy regardless of how
much energy is generated by the plant.
The amount of energy needed during the
operational life of a nuclear power plant is
known as the
energy debt
.
1
Large uncertainties, especially regarding
the 3rd phase of the nuclear process chain,
obscure energy debt estimates for nuclear power.
Our estimates are based on the quantities of
materials involved. Judged against official
UK decommissioning estimates, our figures
are cautious.
Subtracting the energy debt from the energy
generated by a nuclear power plant over its
lifetime gives the figure for
net energy
.
1. All energy systems produce an energy debt. Using this data it is possible to calculate the energy pay-back time – the time it
takes for the energy system to produce as much energy as it comsumes over a full life-cycle. If we assume a nuclear power plant
operates for 40 years using today’s uranium ore grades (very favourable), the energy pay-back time is 6-14 years.
For photovoltaics in the UK it is 4 years and for wind it is less than 1 year.
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Oxford
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Net energy and the ‘Energy Cliff’
CO
2
emissions and nuclear power
The quantity of energy which can be generated from one metric tonne of natural uranium has a
fixed value in a given reactor type. The amount of energy needed to convert a uranium-bearing rock
in the ground into nuclear fuel, depends on the ore grade: the lower the grade the more energy
the extraction of uranium from its ore consumes, and the lower the net energy a nuclear power
plant puts into the grid. As ore grades
decline so does net energy,
leading to the ‘Energy Cliff’.
If the world nuclear
generating capacity stays
at the current levels, nuclear
power will fall off the ‘Energy
Cliff’ by around 2070 – within
the lifetime of new UK
nuclear build.
Nuclear power
then consumes as much
energy as it puts into the grid.
Graph 2 is based on the
assumption that no new large
uranium deposits will be
found of the same quality as
the currently known
high-grade deposits.
The level of CO
2
emission by the nuclear system depends upon the operational lifetime of the nuclear
power plant and the grade of the uranium ore used to obtain the uranium fuel. The operational lifetime
is important because the construction and dismantling of a nuclear power plant uses a fixed amount of
energy and produces fixed
CO
2
emissions, regardless of
the lifetime of the power plant.
So, as the lifetime and
efficiency of the power plant
decreases, the proportion of
CO
2
emissions increases.
The grade of the uranium
ore determines the amount of
fossil fuels needed to extract
the uranium from rock,
which leads to CO
2
emission
per kg uranium. As the
quantity of electricity
generated from 1kg uranium
has is fixed value. CO
2
emission (gram CO
2
per kWh)
increase with decreasing
ore grade.
Graph 2: the energy cliff
Graph 3: Nuclear energy generated CO
2
emissions
2
By the time a full fleet of 10 new reactors is operational,
mean ore grade will drop leading to a significant increase in
nuclear powered CO
2
emissions.
“At todays
generating
capacity,
nuclear
energy will
consume
more energy
than it puts
back into
the grid by
2070.”
Nuclear
power emits
CO
2
and
other
GHGs.
On a global
scale its
contribu-
tion to
mitigating
emissions of
GHGs is
negligible
and will
remain so.
2. Specific emission of carbon dioxide by nuclear power (radiation sign) versus time. During the next decades the emission
will rise, due to poorer ores to feed the nuclear system. The emission by combined-cycle gas-fired power plants (burning flame)
will decrease somewhat, due to improving efficiency. The dark shaded area represents the uncertainty range of the nuclear
CO
2
emission, due to several uncertainties in the nuclear fuel cycle, among which dismantling and waste storage.
The fraction of net energy from nuclear power
as function of time. The width of the line,
widening towards the end of the graph
(the sign indicates nuclear power), represents
an uncertaintity range, due to uncertainties in
the grade of the uranium ores to be mined
later this century
The distribution of uranium follows the same physical and chemical
laws as other metals: the richer an ore, the rarer they are. The most
easily discoverable and mineable uranium deposits are already in
production. The chance of finding new large high-grade ores is unknown.
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For more information, please contact:
J. W. Storm van Leeuwen
Independent Civil Nuclear Consultant
Oxford Research Group
51 Plantation Road
Oxford, OX2 6JE
United Kingdom
T
+44 (0)1865 242 819
E
james.kemp@oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk
Registered Charity No. 299436
www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk
Oxford Research Group
is an independent
think tank which works to bring about positive
change on issues of national and international
security by non-violent means. To find out more
about our
Secure Energy: Options for a Safer
World
project please visit our website
Oxford
Research
Group
Secure Energy: Options for a Safer World
4
Conclusions
Reducing CO
2
emissions
A new nuclear build in the UK cannot make a
significant contribution to reducing UK or
global CO
2
emissions. Within the lifetime of
new nuclear build, sufficiently high grade
uranium resources will become severely
depleted. The use of lower grade uranium
would increase nuclear CO
2
emissions to the
level of a gas-fired power station by 2070.
Increasing energy security
Nor would nuclear energy increase the UK’s
energy security over the coming decades.
There are no indigenous uranium supplies,
and dwindling known resources of high
grade uranium will lead to future price rises and
fluctuations, and resource competition.
Opportunity costs
Large-scale investment in nuclear power would
remove the opportunity for the UK to join with
other countries in leading on developing an
energy supply independent of exhaustible mineral
energy resources, as China is doing for instance.
Implications for UK and global security
A new nuclear build would lead to an
incremental increase of the risks of nuclear
terrorism in the UK and from global nuclear
weapons proliferation. Is an incremental
increase to present threats manageable?
Or, are current risks associated with
proliferation of nuclear technology and
weapons-usable materials already
unacceptably high?
About the author
Jan Willem Storm van
Leeuwen is a senior
scientist at Ceedata
Consultancy. He works
for the Open University
at Heerlen and is
secretary of the Dutch
Association of the
Club of Rome.
Storm is one of the
international group of
expert reviewers of
the Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) of the
International Pabel on
Climate Change (IPCC).
He published numerous
reports and articles
on topics related
to energy and environ-
ment.
About the ORG “Secure Energy: Options for a Safer World” project
With this project ORG aims to inform public debate and Government decision-making concerning
the future of civil nuclear power. We hope to raise understanding and awareness of the extent
to which a new nuclear build would increase the risks of nuclear weapons and technology proliferation, and
of nuclear terrorism.
To achieve this we are producing a series of factsheets on different elements of the security and
civil nuclear power axis, including vulnerabilities to terrorism, safeguarding nuclear materials,
trends in paramilitary violence, energy security and the potential of renewable technology.
“The question is whether an incremental increase to present
threats is manageable? Or, whether current risks to UK
and global security are already unacceptably high?”
Previous Secure Energy factsheets by ORG
Factsheets 1, 2 and 3 address the security the risks associated with a new nuclear build.
Specifically, they focus on (1) the consequences for nuclear weapons proliferation and nuclear
terrorism of fueling nuclear reactors with MOX fuel and weapons-usable plutonium, (2) the
proliferation risks associated with reprocessing spent fuel, and (3) trends in paramilitary violence
and nuclear terrorism. For copies of these factsheets, please contact ORG.
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