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E c o n o m i c &

World Population Prospects
The 2006 Revision

Highlights

United Nations

S o c i a l A f f a i r s

ESA/P/WP.202

Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Population Division

World Population Prospects
The 2006 Revision

Highlights

United Nations

New York, 2007

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

DESA

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and
environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three
main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of
economic, social and environmental data and information on which States
Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take
stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in
many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing
or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the
ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations
conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through
technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

Note

The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do
not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the
Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries.

Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters
combined with figures.

This publication has been issued without formal editing.

Suggested citation:

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights,
Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.202.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

iii

PREFACE

This report presents the highlights of the results of the

2006 Revision

of the

official world population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division
of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The

2006 Revision

is the twentieth round of global demographic estimates and projections

undertaken by the Population Division since 1951.

The full results of the

2006 Revision

will be presented in a series of three

volumes currently under preparation. The first volume

will provide the comprehensive

tables presenting the major demographic indicators for each development group, major
area, region and country for 1950-2050; the second volume

will contain the distributions

by age and sex of the population of each country for the period 1950-2050, and the third
volume

will be devoted to an analysis of the results obtained.

Data are also available in digital form and can be consulted at the Population

Division’s web site at

www.unpopulation.org

. Users requiring the complete results of the

2006 Revision

can purchase them on CD-ROM. A description of the data contained in the

different CD-ROMs available and an order form are posted on the web site of the
Population Division.

Responsibility for the

2006 Revision

rests with the Population Division.

Preparation of the

2006 Revision

was facilitated by the collaboration of the regional

commissions, especially the Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean, and of UNAIDS, the specialized agencies and other relevant bodies of the
United Nations with the Population Division.

A major source of official national population statistics used in the preparation of

these estimates and projections is the

United Nations Demographic Yearbook

and its

accompanying databases, produced and maintained by the Statistics Division of the
Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The
Population Division is grateful to the Statistics Division for its continuing cooperation.

For further information about the

2006 Revision

, please contact Ms. Hania

Zlotnik, Director, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA
(Fax: 1 212 963 2147).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

, vol. I,

Comprehensive Tables

(United Nations publication,

forthcoming).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

, vol. II,

Sex and Age

Distribution of the World Population

(United Nations publication, forthcoming).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

, vol. III,

Analytical Report

(United Nations publication,

forthcoming).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

EXPLANATORY NOTES

The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout this report:

Two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not reported separately.
A hyphen (-) indicates that the item is not applicable.
A minus sign (-) before a figure indicates a decrease.
A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals.
Years given refer to 1 July.
Use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 1995-2000, signifies the full period involved,

from 1 July of the first year to 1 July of the second year.

Numbers and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

References to countries, territories and areas:

The designations employed and the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,
territory or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The designation “more developed” and “less developed” regions are intended for statistical convenience
and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the
development process. The term “country” as used in this publication also refers, as appropriate, to
territories or areas.

More developed regions comprise all regions of Europe plus Northern America, Australia/New Zealand
and Japan.

Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan) and Latin America and the
Caribbean, as well as Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.

The group of least developed countries currently comprises 50 countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh,
Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros,
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi,
Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Samoa, São Tomé and
Príncipe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tuvalu, Uganda,
United Republic of Tanzania, Vanuatu, Yemen and Zambia.

Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed
countries.

The designation sub-Saharan Africa is commonly used to indicate all of Africa except northern Africa, with
the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.

Countries and areas are grouped geographically into six major areas: Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America
and the Caribbean; Northern America; and Oceania. These major areas are further divided into 21
geographical regions.

Names and compositions of geographical areas follow those of “Standard country or area codes for
statistical use” (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/49/Rev.3), available at
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49.htm.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

The following abbreviations have been used:

AIDS

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

ART Antiretroviral therapy

DESA

Department of Economic and Social Affairs

HIV Human

immunodeficiency

virus

MDGs

Millennium Development Goals

SAR

Special Administrative Region

UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

vii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The

2006 Revision

is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates

and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as
the basis for activities requiring population information. The

2006 Revision

builds on the

2004

Revision

and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and

of recent specialized surveys carried out in countries around the world. These sources provide
both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the
internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects
presented in the

2006 Revision

provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals.

According to the

2006 Revision

, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion

over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is
equivalent to the overall number of people in the world in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by
the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9
billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net
migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million
persons a year after 2010.

As a result of declining fertility and increasing longevity, the populations of a growing

number of countries are ageing rapidly. Between 2005 and 2050, half of the increase in the world
population will be accounted for by a rise in the population aged 60 years or over, whereas the
number of children (persons under age 15) will decline slightly. Furthermore, in the more
developed regions, the population aged 60 or over is expected nearly to double (from 245 million
in 2005 to 406 million in 2050) whereas that of persons under age 60 will likely decline (from
971 million in 2005 to 839 million in 2050).

The

2006 Revision

confirms the diversity of demographic dynamics among the different

world regions. While the population at the global level is on track to surpass 9 billion by 2050
and hence continues to increase, that of the more developed regions is hardly changing and will
age markedly. As already noted, virtually all population growth is occurring in the less developed
regions and especially in the group of the 50 least developed countries, many of which still have
relatively youthful populations that are expected to age only moderately over the foreseeable
future. Among the rest of the developing countries, rapid population ageing is expected.

Underlying these varied patterns of growth and changes in the age structure are distinct

trends in fertility and mortality. Below-replacement fertility prevails in the more developed
regions and is expected to continue to 2050. Fertility is still high in most of the least developed
countries and, although it is expected to decline, it will remain higher than in the rest of the
world. In the rest of the developing countries, fertility has declined markedly since the late 1960s
and is expected to reach below-replacement levels by 2050 in the majority of those countries.

Mortality in the established market economies of the developed world is low and

continues to decline, but it has been stagnant or even increasing in a number of countries with
economies in transition, largely as a result of deteriorating social and economic conditions and, in
some cases, because of the spread of HIV. Mortality is also decreasing in the majority of

viii

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

developing countries, but in those highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, mortality has been
increasing.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to expand. The number of countries with a significant

number of infected people according to the

2006 Revision

is 62, up from 60 in the

2004 Revision

and 53 in the

2002 Revision

. Although HIV prevalence in some countries has been revised

downward since 2004 on the basis of newly available nationally representative data, the toll of the
disease continues to be high and is expected to remain so, despite projected reductions in the
prevalence of HIV infection.

Lower projected levels of HIV prevalence depend on the realization of the commitments

made by Governments in the 2000 Millennium Declaration

and the 2001 United Nations

Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS

. In particular, the projected population trends depend

on achieving a major increase in the proportion of AIDS patients who get antiretroviral therapy to
treat the disease and on the success of efforts to control the further spread of HIV. In the

2006

Revision

, the 62 countries considered to be highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic include 40

located in Africa. In projecting the effect of the disease, it is assumed that 31 of the most affected
countries will manage to provide by 2015 antiretroviral treatment to 70 per cent or more of the
persons who have developed full blown AIDS. In the rest of the affected countries, treatment
levels are expected to be lower, reaching between 40 per cent and 50 per cent by 2015. It is
further assumed that persons receiving treatment survive, on average, 17.5 years instead of the 10
years expected in the absence of treatment. Mainly as a result of these assumptions and owing to
the downward revision of the prevalence of HIV infection in countries where nationally
representative data on the epidemic have become available, an estimated 32 million fewer deaths
are projected to occur during 2005-2020 in the 62 countries most affected by the epidemic
according to the

2006 Revision

than those projected in the

2004 Revision

. These changes also

contribute to make the population projected to 2050 larger according to the

2006 Revision

than

according to the

2004 Revision

(9.2 billion versus 9.1 billion).

Realization of the medium variant of the projections presented in the

2006 Revision

also contingent on ensuring that fertility continues to decline in developing countries. According
to the

2006 Revision

, fertility in the less developed countries as a whole is expected to drop from

2.75 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 children per woman in 2045-2050. The reduction
expected in the group of 50 least developed countries is even sharper: from 4.63 children per
woman in 2005-2010 to 2.50 children per woman 2045-2050. To achieve such reductions it is
essential that access to family planning expands in the poorest countries of the world. The
urgency of realizing the reductions of fertility projected is brought into focus by considering that,
if fertility were to remain constant at the levels estimated for 2000-2005, the population of the
less developed regions would increase to 10.6 billion instead of the 7.9 billion projected by
assuming that fertility declines. That is, without further reductions of fertility, the world
population could increase by twice as many people as those who were alive in 1950.

See General Assembly Resolution A/Res/55/2.

See General Assembly Resolution A/Res/S-26/2.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Other key findings resulting from the comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic

trends and future prospects presented in the

2006 Revision

are

summarized below.

In July 2007 the world population will reach 6.7 billion, 547 million more than in 2000 or a
gain of 78 million persons annually. Assuming that fertility levels continue to decline, the
world population is expected to reach 9.2 billion in 2050 and to be increasing by about 30
million persons annually at that time, according to the medium variant.

Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes (figure 1).
In the medium variant, fertility of the world declines from 2.55 children per woman today to
slightly over 2 children per woman in 2050. If fertility were to remain about half a child
above the levels projected in the medium variant, world population would reach 10.8 billion
by 2050. A fertility path half a child below the medium variant would lead to a population of
7.8 billion by mid-century. That is, at the world level, continued population growth until 2050
is inevitable even if the decline in fertility accelerates.

Figure 1. Population of the world, 1950-2050, according to different projection variants

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Populat

ion

(bi

llions

)

Medium

Low

High

Constant fertility

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

Because of its low and declining rate of population growth, the population of developed
countries as a whole is expected to remain virtually unchanged between 2007 and 2050, at
about 1.2 billion, according to the medium variant. In contrast, the population of the 50 least
developed countries will likely more than double, passing from 0.8 billion in 2007 to 1.7
billion in 2050. Growth in the rest of the developing world is also projected to be robust,
though less rapid, with its population rising from 4.6 billion to 6.2 billion between 2007 and
2050 according to the medium variant.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Slow population growth brought about by reductions in fertility leads to population ageing,
that is, it produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases while that of
younger persons decreases. In the more developed regions, 20 per cent of the population is
already aged 60 years or over and that proportion is projected to reach 33 per cent in 2050. In
developed countries as a whole, the number of older persons (persons aged 60 or over) has
already surpassed the number of children (persons under age 15) and by 2050 the number of
older persons in developed countries is expected to be more than double the number of
children.

Population ageing is less advanced in developing countries. Nevertheless, the populations of
a majority of them are posed to enter a period of rapid population ageing. In developing
countries as a whole, just 8 per cent of the population is today aged 60 years or over but by
2050, 20 per cent of their population is expected to be in that age range.

Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected nearly to triple, increasing
from 673 million in 2005 to 2 billion by 2050. Over the same period, the share of older
persons living in developing countries is expected to rise from 64 per cent in 2005 to nearly
80 per cent in 2050.

A feature of ageing populations is that the number of older persons increases faster the higher
the age range considered. Thus, whereas the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to
triple, that of persons aged 80 or over (the oldest-old) is projected to increase nearly five-fold,
from 88 million in 2005 to 402 million in 2050. Today, about half of the oldest-old live in
developing countries but that share is expected to reach 71 per cent in 2050.

Although the populations of all countries are expected to age over the foreseeable future, the
populations of countries where fertility is still high will remain relatively young and will
increase rapidly. High population growth rates prevail in a number of developing countries,
the majority of which are least developed. Between 2005 and 2050, the populations of
Afghanistan, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger,
Timor-Leste and Uganda are projected to increase at least threefold.

In sharp contrast, the populations of 46 countries or areas, including Germany, Italy, Japan,
the Republic of Korea, most of the successor States of the former USSR and several small
island States are expected to be smaller in 2050 than in 2005.

10.

Population growth remains concentrated in the populous countries. During 2005-2050, eight
countries are expected to account for half of the world’s projected population increase: India,
Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United States of
America, Bangladesh and China, listed according to the size of their contribution to global
population growth.

11.

The median age, that is, the age that divides the population in two halves of equal size, is an
indicator of population ageing. At the world level, the median age is projected to increase
from 28 to 38 years between 2005 and 2050. Europe has today the oldest population, with a
median age of nearly 39 years that is expected to reach 47 years in 2050.

12.

The median age is higher in countries having low fertility for long periods. In 2005, the
median age in 13 developed countries or areas was higher than 40 years. The pervasiveness
of population ageing is reflected by the fact that 93 countries are projected to have median
ages above 40 years in 2050, 48 of which are developing countries.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

13.

Countries where fertility remains high and has declined only moderately will experience the
slowest population ageing. By 2050, about one in five countries is projected to have a median
age below 30 years. The least developed countries will have the youngest populations, with
eight of them projected to have median ages below 24 years in 2050, namely, Afghanistan,
Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger and
Uganda.

14.

As noted above, fertility reductions are the main cause of population ageing. At the world
level, fertility is estimated to be 2.55 children per woman, about half the level it had in 1950-
1955 at 5 children per women. In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline
further to 2.02 children per woman. Average world levels result from quite different trends in
the major development groups. In developed countries as a whole, fertility is currently 1.60
children per woman and is projected to increase slowly to 1.79 children per woman in 2045-
2050. In the least developed countries, fertility is 4.63 children per woman and is expected to
drop by about half, to 2.50 children per woman by 2045-2050. In the rest of the developing
world, fertility is already moderately low at 2.45 children per woman and is expected to
decline further to 1.91 children per woman by mid-century, thus nearly converging to the
fertility levels by then typical of the developed world.

15.

In 2005-2010, fertility remains above 5 children per woman in 27 of the 150 developing
countries, and those 27 countries account for 9 per cent of the world population. Most
countries with very high fertility are poor and belong to the group of least developed
countries. In contrast, fertility has reached below-replacement levels in 28 developing
countries, which account for 25 per cent of the world population. This group includes China
whose average fertility during 2005-2010 is estimated at 1.73 children per woman.

16.

Fertility is also below replacement level in all 45 developed countries or areas, which account
for 19 per cent of the world population. In 27 of them, including Japan and most of the
countries located in Southern and Eastern Europe, fertility remains below 1.5 children per
woman. Since 1990-1995, fertility decline has been the rule among the vast majority of
developed countries and is leading to rapid population ageing.

17.

Another factor contributing to population ageing is the reduction of mortality at adult ages.
Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 58 years in 1970-1975
to 67 years in 2005-2010, is expected to keep on rising to reach 75 years in 2045-2050. In the
more developed regions, the projected increase is from 77 years today to 82 years by mid-
century, and in the less developed regions life expectancy is projected to rise from 65 years in
2005-2010 to 74 years in 2045-2050.

18.

Life expectancy remains low in the least developed countries, at just 55 years, and although it
is projected to reach 67 years in 2045-2050, achieving such an increase is contingent on
reducing the spread of HIV and combating successfully other infectious diseases. Similar
challenges must be confronted if the projected increase of life expectancy in the rest of the
developing countries, from under 68 years today to 76 years by mid-century, is to be
achieved.

19.

Among the more developed regions, Eastern Europe has the lowest life expectancy at birth
and has had a declining life expectancy since the late 1980s. In 2005-2010 life expectancy in
the region, at 68.6 years, is lower than it was in 1960-1965 (69.3 years). The Russian

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World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Federation and Ukraine have experienced serious increases in mortality, partly because of the
spread of HIV.

20.

Despite the advances made in treating people infected with HIV and in controlling the spread
of the epidemic, its impact in terms of morbidity, mortality and slower population growth
continues to be evident in many countries. In Southern Africa, the region with the highest
prevalence of the disease, life expectancy has fallen from 62 years in 1990-1995 to 49 years
in 2005-2010 and is not expected to regain the level it had in the early 1990s before 2045. As
a consequence, the growth rate of the population in the region has plummeted, passing from
2.5 per cent annually in 1990-1995 to 0.6 per cent annually in 2005-2010 and is expected to
continue declining for the foreseeable future.

21.

The contribution of international migration to population growth in the more developed
regions has increased in significance as fertility declines. During 2005-2050, the net number
of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 103 million, a figure
that counterbalances the excess of deaths over births (74 million) projected over the period.

22.

In 2005-2010, the contribution of net migration was higher than the contribution of natural
increase (births minus deaths) to population growth in eight countries or areas, namely,
Belgium, Canada, Hong Kong (China SAR), Luxembourg, Singapore, Spain, Sweden and
Switzerland. In a further eight countries or areas, net migration counterbalanced the excess of
deaths over births. These countries or areas are: Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the
Channel Islands, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia.

23.

In terms of annual averages during 2005-2050, the major net receivers of international
migrants are projected to be the United States (1.1 million annually), Canada (200,000),
Germany (150,000), Italy (139,000), the United Kingdom (130,000), Spain (123,000) and
Australia (100,000). The countries with the highest levels of net emigration are projected to
be: China (-329,000 annually), Mexico (-306,000), India (-241,000), the Philippines
(-180,000), Pakistan (-167,000) and Indonesia (-164,000).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

xiii

CONTENTS

Page

REFACE

........................................................................................................................................................ iii

XPLANATORY NOTES

.................................................................................................................................... iv

XECUTIVE

UMMARY

.................................................................................................................................. vii

Chapters

I. W

ORLD POPULATION TRENDS

............................................................................................................. 1

Population

size and growth......................................................................................................... 1

Population

age composition........................................................................................................ 2

II.

ERTILITY

.......................................................................................................................................................... 9

III.

ORTALITY AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF

HIV/AIDS ........................................................... 14

Trends

and

prospects in world mortality................................................................................... 14

B. The demographic impact of AIDS............................................................................................ 15

IV.

NTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

............................................................................................................ 24

SSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE

2006

EVISION

....................................................................................... 26

A. Fertility assumptions: convergence toward total fertility below replacement level.................. 27

B. Mortality assumptions: increasing life expectancy except when affected by HIV/AIDS......... 28

International

migration assumptions......................................................................................... 30

Eleven

projection variants..........................................................................................................30

E. Methodological changes introduced in the

2006 Revision

.........................................................32

VI.

LASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY MAJOR AREA AND REGION OF THE WORLD

................................. 33

VII.

RDERING THE DATA ON

CD-ROM.................................................................................................. 37

VIII.

NNEX TABLES

................................................................................................................................. 39

ABLES

No.

Page

I.1. Population of the world, major development groups and major areas, 1950, 1975, 2007 and

2050 according to different variants

............................................................................................................. 1

I.2. Percentage distribution of the world population by development group and major area, 1950,

1975, 2007 and 2050, according to projection variant ....................................................................... 5

I.3. Percentage distribution of the population by broad age group for the world, the major

development groups and the major areas, medium variant, 2005 and 2050 ...................................... 5

I.4. Average annual rate of population change of the total population and the population in broad

age groups by major area, medium variant, 2005-2050 ..................................................................... 6

II.1. Estimated and projected total fertility for the world, the major development groups and the

major areas, 1970-1975, 2005-2010 and 2045-2050 according to variant........................................ 9

II.2. Distribution of countries and areas by level of total fertility in 1950-1955, 1970-1975,

2005-2010 and 2045-2050 (medium variant)................................................................................... 11

III.1. Life expectancy at birth for the world, the major development groups and the major areas,
2005-2010

and 2045-2050 ............................................................................................................... 14

III.2. Life expectancy at birth by sex for the world and the major development groups, 2005-2010
and

2045-2050 ................................................................................................................................. 17

IV.1. Average annual net number of international migrants per decade by major development group

and major area, 1950-2050............................................................................................................... 25

xiv

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

No.

Page

V.1. Projection variants or scenarios in terms of assumptions for fertility, mortality and international
migration.......................................................................................................................................... 31

IGURES

1. Population of the world, 1950-2050, according to different projection variants............................... ix

2. Average annual rate of population change for the world and the major development groups,

1950-2050

(medium

variant) ............................................................................................................. 6

  3.   Total fertility trajectories for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2050 ................ 12
  4.   Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2050................... 18
  5.   Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major areas, 1950-2050........................................... 19
  6.   Under-five mortality for the world and selected regions, 1950-2050 .............................................. 20
  7.   Percentage distribution of deaths by age, Eastern Africa, 1985-1990 and 2005-2010..................... 21
  8.   Population in 2015, with AIDS and without AIDS, by sex and age group, South Africa................ 22

APS

  1.  Average annual rate of population change, 2005-2010, medium variant........................................... 7
  2.  Average annual rate of population change, 2045-2050, medium variant........................................... 7
  3.  Median age in 2005, medium variant................................................................................................. 8
  4.  Median age in 2050, medium variant................................................................................................. 8
  5.  Total fertility in 2005-2010, medium variant................................................................................... 13
  6.  Total fertility in 2045-2050, medium variant................................................................................... 13
  7.  Life expectancy at birth, 2005-2010, medium variant ..................................................................... 23
  8.  Life expectancy at birth, 2045-2050, medium variant ..................................................................... 23

NNEX TABLES

A.1. Total population by sex in 2007 and sex ratio by country in 2007 .................................................. 39

A.2. Total population by country, 1950, 2007, 2015, 2025 and 2050...................................................... 44

A.3. Countries accounting for about 75 per cent of the world population ordered by population size,

estimates and medium variant, 1950, 2007 and 2050 ...................................................................... 49

A.4. Average annual rate of population change for the world, development groups and major areas,

estimates and projections according to projection variants, 1950-2050........................................... 50

A.5. The ten countries or areas with the highest and the ten countries or areas with the lowest annual

average rates of population change, 2005-2010 and 2045-2050...................................................... 51

A.6. Countries accounting for 75 per cent of the annual population increase in the world during

1950-1955,

2005-2010 and 2045-2050 ............................................................................................ 52

A.7. Ten countries or areas with the highest and ten countries or areas with the lowest rates of

natural increase, 2005-2010 and 2045-2050, medium variant ......................................................... 53

A.8. Average annual rate of population change by country for selected periods, medium variant.......... 54

A.9. Countries or areas whose population is projected to decrease between 2007 and 2050 .................. 60

A.10. Percentage distribution of the population in selected age groups by country, 2005 and 2050......... 61

A.11. Ten countries or areas with the oldest and ten countries with the youngest populations, 1950,
1975,

2005 and 2050........................................................................................................................ 66

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

No.

Page

A.12. Median age of the population by country, 1950, 2005 and 2050 ..................................................... 67

A.13. Ten countries or areas with the highest and ten countries or areas with the lowest total fertility,
1970-1975,

2005-2010 and 2045-2050 ............................................................................................ 72

A.14. The twelve countries or areas with the largest and the twelve countries or areas with the

smallest total fertility change between 1970-1975 and 2005-2010 ................................................. 73

A.15. Total fertility by country for selected periods.................................................................................. 74

A.16. The ten countries or areas with the highest and the ten countries or areas with the lowest life
expectancy

birth,

2005-2010 and 2045-2050 ............................................................................... 79

A.17. Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined, by country for selected periods ............................. 80

A.18. Infant mortality rate by country for selected periods ....................................................................... 85

A.19. Under-five mortality by country for selected periods ...................................................................... 90

A.20. HIV prevalence in the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, 2005 and 2025.......... 95

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

WORLD POPULATION TRENDS

OPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH

On 1 July 2007, the world population will reach 6.7 billion with 5.4 billion (or 82 per

cent of the world’s total) living in the less developed regions (table I.1). Out of these, 804 million
reside in the 50 least developed countries and account for 12 per cent of the world population.
More developed countries, whose total population amounts to 1.2 billion inhabitants, account for
18 per cent of the world population (table I.2).

According to the medium variant, the world population is projected to reach 9.2 billion

persons by 2050, that is, 2.5 billion more than in 2007, an increase equivalent to the combined
populations of China and India today. Most of this growth will be absorbed by developing
countries. Between 2007 and 2050, the population of the more developed regions will remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion inhabitants, but the population of the less developed regions is
projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. At the same time, the population
of the least developed countries is projected more than to double, from 804 million inhabitants in
2007 to 1.7 billion in 2050. Consequently, by 2050, 86 per cent of the world population is
expected to live in the less developed regions, including 19 per cent in the least developed
countries, whereas only 14 per cent will live in the more developed regions.

ABLE

I.1.

OPULATION OF THE WORLD

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT GROUPS AND MAJOR AREAS

1950,

1975,

2007

AND

2050

ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT VARIANTS

Population (millions)

Population in 2050 (millions)

Major area

1950

1975

2007

Low

Medium

High

Constant

World ................................................. 2

535 4

076 6

671

7 792

9 191

10 756

11 858

More developed regions .....................

814

1 048

1 223

1 065

1 245

1 451

1 218

Less developed regions.......................

1 722

3 028

5 448

6 727

7 946

9 306

10 639

Least developed countries ..............

200

358

804

1 496

1 742

2 002

2 794

Other less developed countries .......

1 521

2 670

4 644

5 231

6 204

7 304

7 845

Africa .................................................

224

416

965

1 718

1 998

2 302

3 251

Asia .................................................... 1

411 2

394 4

030

4 444

5 266

6 189

6 525

Europe ................................................

548

676

731

566

664

777

626

Latin America and the Caribbean.......

168

325

572

641

769

914

939

Northern America...............................

172 243

339

382

445

517

460

Oceania...............................................

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World population in 2050 would be substantially higher if the decline in fertility

projected in the medium variant fails to be realized. If fertility were to remain constant at current
levels in all countries, world population would almost double by 2050, reaching 11.9 billion. In
the high variant, where fertility is assumed to remain mostly half a child higher than in the
medium variant, the world population in 2050 would reach 10.8 billion persons. In the low
variant, where fertility is projected to be half a child lower than in the medium variant, world
population would still grow, but only to reach 7.8 billion by 2050. According to the low variant,

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

the population of the least developed countries would still nearly double, to reach 1.5 billion by
2050, but the population of the more developed regions would decline to less than 1.1 billion.

Most of the world population lives in a few countries. In 2007, 40 per cent of the world

population lived in China and India. A further eight countries accounted for a further 20 per cent
of the earth’s inhabitants, namely, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Nigeria, the Russian Federation and Japan, in order of population size (table A.3). However, most
of the countries of the world have small populations. Thus, 77 per cent of the 229 countries or
areas covered by the

2006 Revision

had populations of less than 20 million inhabitants in 2007

and, taken together, they account for 12 per cent of the world’s population.

By 2025, the population of India is projected to surpass that of China and the two will

account then for about 36 per cent of the world population. By 2050, three least developed
countries—Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia—will be among the
ten most populous countries in the world. Together with India, China, the United States,
Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Brazil, in order of population size, they are projected to be the
ten most populous countries in the world in 2050.

Increments in the world population are also largely concentrated in a few countries,

generally the most populous. Thus, during 2005-2050, eight countries—India, Nigeria, Pakistan,
the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United States, Bangladesh and China, in
order of population increment—are expected to account for almost half of the projected
population increase at the world level.

Over most of human history, the world population grew very slowly if at all. Growth

rates began increasing slowly during the 17

or 18

centuries as mortality started to decline. With

accelerating gains in longevity, the growth rate of the world population increased, especially
during the 20

century, when it reached a peak at 2 per cent per year in 1965-1970 (figure 2).

Since then, the speed of population growth has been decelerating, largely as a result of falling
fertility in the developing world. By 2005-2010, the population growth rate at the world level had
reached 1.17 per cent per year and is projected to decline to 0.36 per cent per year by 2045-2050.

However, because fertility decline has not occurred simultaneously in all countries, the

pace of population growth still differs considerably among development groups. Thus, whereas
today the population of the more developed regions is rising at an annual rate of 0.28 per cent,
that of the less developed regions is increasing almost five times as fast, at 1.37 per cent annually,
and the least developed countries as a group are experiencing even more rapid population growth,
at 2.37 per cent per year. Such differences, albeit dampened, are expected to persist until 2050.
By that time, according to the medium variant, the population of the more developed regions will
have been declining for about 20 years, whereas the population of the less developed regions will
still be rising at an annual rate of 0.44 per cent per year. More importantly, the population of the
least developed countries will likely be increasing at a robust annual rate of 1.24 per cent in
2045-2050, a rate that, if maintained, would lead to a doubling of the population every 56 years
(figure 2).

OPULATION AGE COMPOSITION

The primary demographic consequence of fertility decline, especially if combined with

increases in life expectancy, is population ageing, a process whereby the proportion of older
persons in the population increases and that of younger persons declines. In 1950, just 8 per cent
of the world population was aged 60 years or over. By 2005 that proportion had risen to 10 per
cent and it is expected to reach 22 per cent in 2050 (table I.3). Globally, the number of older
persons (aged 60 years or over) will nearly triple, passing from 673 million in 2005 to 2 billion in
2050. In contrast, the number of children (persons under age 15) is projected to decline over the

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

next 45 years, passing from 1.84 billion in 2005 to 1.82 billion in 2050 and their share of the total
population will drop from 28 per cent in 2005 to 20 per cent in 2050.

Increases in the median age, the age at which half the population is older and half is

younger than that age, are indicative of population ageing. In 2005, 13 countries, all of them
located in the more developed regions, had a median age higher than 40 years. Leading this group
was Japan with a median age of 43 years, followed closely by Germany and Italy, with median
ages of 42 years (table A.11). In contrast, the median ages in Mali, Niger and Uganda in 2005
were all at or below 16 years, making their populations the youngest on the planet.

By 2050, 93 countries are expected to have a median age above 40, 48 of which are

located in the developing world. That is, population ageing, which is already pervasive in
developed countries, is expected to be common in the developing world of the future and is
projected to occur more rapidly in developing countries than it did in their developed counterparts
(map 3 and map 4).

Despite the general trend toward population ageing, countries that still have relatively

high fertility will have a younger population than the rest in 2050. Mostly least developed
countries are in this group. In 2050, eight least developed countries will have the youngest
populations on earth, with median ages at or below 24 years. They are: Afghanistan, Angola,
Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger and Uganda
(table A.11).

The more developed regions have been leading the process of population ageing and their

experience provides a point of comparison for the expected ageing of the population of less
developed regions. In 1950, the number of children (persons under age 15) in the more developed
world was more than twice the number of older persons (those aged 60 years or over), with
children accounting for 27 per cent of the total population and the elderly for only 12 per cent. By
2005, the proportion of older persons in the more developed regions had surpassed that of
children (20 per cent versus 17 per cent) and in 2050, the proportion of older persons is expected
to be more than double that of children (33 per cent versus 15 per cent). In 2050, the number of
older persons in more developed regions is projected to be more than four times their number in
1950 (95 million versus 406 million) while the number of children is projected to decline from
223 million in 1950 to 190 million in 2050.

Until 2005, population ageing had been considerably slower in the less developed regions

where fertility is still relatively high. The proportion of children had declined from 37 per cent in
1950 to 31 per cent in 2005, while the proportion of older persons had increased from 6 per cent
to 8 per cent. However, a period of more rapid population ageing lies ahead for the less developed
regions. By 2050, the proportion of older persons in those regions is expected to rise to 20 per
cent, whereas the proportion of children is expected to decline to 21 per cent.

Trends in the number of persons of working age (those aged 15 to 59 years) are

particularly important for all countries. The proportion of the population in those ages is an
important factor related to the potential for economic growth. In the more developed regions, the
proportion of the population of working age decreased from 61 per cent in 1950 to 59 per cent in
1970 and then increased steadily to reach 63 per cent in 2005. However, this increase is over and
the proportion of the population of working age in the more developed regions is expected to
decline steadily in the future, reaching 52 per cent by 2050.

In the less developed regions, the proportion of the population of working age is expected

to decline slightly, passing from 61 per cent in 2005 to 59 per cent in 2050. However, among the
least developed countries, that proportion will rise from 53 per cent in 2005 to 61 per cent in
2050, an increase that represents both an opportunity and a challenge: the opportunity for

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

economic growth provided that the challenge of creating gainful employment for the growing
numbers of persons of working age is met.

Among the older population, the number and proportion of the oldest-old, that is, persons

aged 80 years or over, is rising. In 2005, there were 88 million oldest-old corresponding to 1.3 per
cent of the world population. By 2050, this segment of the population is projected to reach 402
million or 4.4 per cent of the world population. The oldest-old is the fastest growing segment of
the world population. Particularly rapid increases in this segment of the population are expected
in the less developed regions where the oldest-old are projected to increase from 43 million in
2005 to 284 million in 2050 implying an average annual rate of 4.2 per cent (table I.4). By 2050,
71 per cent of all persons aged 80 or over are expected to live in developing countries.

In 2005, over 60 countries had populations where the oldest-old accounted for more than

1.3 per cent of the population, the percentage of the oldest-old at the world level. In Italy and
Sweden the oldest-old accounted for over 5 per cent of the population. By 2050, 92 countries are
expected to have populations where those aged 80 years or over account for more than 4.4 per
cent of the population, the projected share of the oldest-old at the world level. In 23 of those
countries, led by Japan and Singapore, the oldest-old are expected to account for over 10 per cent
of the population.

Just as the overall population, the oldest-old tend to be concentrated in the most populous

countries. In 2005, 15.4 million lived in China, 10.6 million in the United States and 7.8 million
in India. In 2050, those countries will still have the largest numbers of persons aged 80 or over:
103 million in China, 51 million in India and 31 million in the United States.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

I.2.

ERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD POPULATION BY DEVELOPMENT GROUP AND MAJOR AREA

1950,

1975,

2007

AND

2050,

ACCORDING TO PROJECTION VARIANT

Percentage distribution

Percentage distribution in 2050

Major

area

1950 1975 2007

Low Medium High Constant

More developed regions .....................

32.1

25.7 18.3

13.7 13.5 13.5 10.3

Less developed regions.......................

67.9

74.3 81.7

86.3 86.5 86.5 89.7

Least developed countries...............

7.9

8.8 12.1

19.2 19.0 18.6 23.6

Other less developed countries .......

60.0 65.5 69.6

67.1 67.5 67.9 66.2

Africa..................................................

8.8 10.2 14.5

22.0 21.7 21.4 27.4

Asia.....................................................

55.6

58.7 60.4

57.0 57.3 57.5 55.0

Europe ................................................

21.6 16.6 11.0

7.3

7.2 7.2

5.3

Latin America and the Caribbean .......

6.6

8.0

8.6

8.2

8.4

8.5

7.9

Northern America...............................

6.8 6.0 5.1

4.9

4.8

3.9

Oceania...............................................

0.5 0.5 0.5

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

ABLE

I.3.

ERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION BY BROAD AGE GROUP FOR THE WORLD

THE MAJOR

DEVELOPMENT GROUPS AND THE MAJOR AREAS

MEDIUM VARIANT

2005

AND

2050

Percentage distribution in 2005

Percentage distribution in 2050

Major area

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

World....................................................................

28.3

61.4

10.3

1.3

19.8

58.3

21.8

4.4

More developed region.....................................

17.0

62.9

20.1

3.7

15.2

52.2

32.6

9.4

Less developed regions..................................... 30.9

61.0

8.1

0.8

20.6

59.3

20.1

3.6

Least developed countries............................. 41.5

53.4

5.1

0.4

28.2

61.5

10.3

1.1

Other less developed countries ..................... 29.1

62.3

8.6

0.9

18.4

58.7

22.9

4.3

Africa.................................................................... 41.4

53.4

5.2

0.4

28.0

61.7

10.4

1.1

Asia ...................................................................... 28.0

62.7

9.2

1.0

18.0

58.3

23.7

4.5

Europe .................................................................. 15.9

63.5

20.6

3.5

14.6

50.9

34.5

9.6

Latin America and the Caribbean ......................... 29.8

61.2

9.0

1.2

18.0

57.8

24.3

5.2

Northern America................................................. 20.5

62.7

16.7

3.5

17.1

55.6

27.3

7.8

Oceania................................................................. 24.9

61.0

14.1

2.6

18.4

56.9

24.8

6.8

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

I.4.

VERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF POPULATION CHANGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AND

THE POPULATION IN BROAD AGE GROUPS BY MAJOR AREA

MEDIUM VARIANT

2005-2050

(

percentage

)

Major area

0-14 15-59 60+ 80+

Total

population

World................................................ -0.03 0.65 2.43 3.38 0.76

More developed regions ................... -0.19 -0.36 1.13 2.16

0.05

Less developed regions..................... 0.00 0.84 2.93 4.19

0.90

Least developed countries............. 0.96 2.14 3.39 3.97

1.82

Other less developed countries ..... -0.32 0.56 2.88 4.20

0.70

Africa................................................

0.85 2.04 3.25 3.88 1.72

Asia................................................... -0.34 0.48 2.74 4.04

0.65

Europe .............................................. -0.41 -0.70 0.93 2.02

-0.21

Latin America and the Caribbean .....

-0.41

0.59

2.92

3.91

0.71

Northern America .............................

0.25 0.38 1.73 2.42 0.65

Oceania............................................. 0.17 0.68 2.08 2.97 0.84

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

Figure 2. Average annual rate of population change for the world and the major

development groups, 1950-2050 (medium variant)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Period

verage annual r

ate of change

(percentag

World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Least developed countries

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Map 1. Average annual rate of population change, 2005-2010, medium variant (

percentage

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Map 2. Average annual rate of population change, 2045-2050, medium variant (

percentage

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Map 3. Median age in 2005, medium variant (

years

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Map 4. Median age in 2050, medium variant (

years

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

II.

FERTILITY

According to the

2006 Revision

, total fertility—that is, the average number of children a

woman would bear if fertility rates remained unchanged during her lifetime—is 2.55 children per
woman in 2005-2010 at the world level (table II.1). This average masks the heterogeneity of
fertility levels among countries. In 2005-2010, 73 countries or areas (45 of them located in the
more developed regions) have fertility levels below 2.1 children per woman, that is, below
replacement level

, whereas 122 countries or areas (all of which are located in the less developed

regions) have total fertility levels at or above 2.1 children per woman. Among these 122
countries, 27 have total fertility levels at or above 5 children per woman, 25 of which are least
developed countries (table II.2 and map 5).

ABLE

II.1.

STIMATED AND PROJECTED TOTAL FERTILITY FOR THE WORLD

THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT GROUPS AND THE

MAJOR AREAS

1970-1975,

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

ACCORDING TO VARIANT

Total fertility (children per woman)

2045-2050

Major area

1970-1975

2005-2010

Low

Medium

High

Constant

World.................................................. 4.47 2.55

1.54

2.02

2.51

3.49

More developed regions...................... 2.13

1.60

1.29

1.79

2.28 1.68

Less developed regions....................... 5.41 2.75

1.57

2.05

2.54

3.69

Least developed countries...............

6.61 4.63

2.02

2.50

2.99

5.49

Other less developed countries ....... 5.25

2.45

1.42 1.91 2.41 3.07

Africa.................................................. 6.72 4.67

1.97

2.46

2.95

5.47

Asia..................................................... 5.04

2.34

1.40

1.90

2.39 2.94

Europe................................................. 2.16 1.45

1.26

1.76

2.26

1.47

Latin America and the Caribbean .......

5.04

2.37

1.36

1.86

2.36

2.67

Northern America ...............................

2.01 2.00

1.35

1.85

2.35

1.99

Oceania ............................................... 3.23

2.30

1.43

1.93

2.43 2.83

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

The 73 countries where total fertility is below replacement level in 2005-2010 account

for 43 per cent of the world population or approximately 2.9 billion people. Countries with
fertility at or above replacement level account for 3.8 billion people or 57 per cent of the world
population. Because of their low fertility and the expectation that it will not rise markedly in the
future, the countries with below-replacement fertility in 2005-2010 are projected to have only a
slightly larger population in 2050 than today. In contrast, the countries whose fertility is currently
at or above replacement level are expected to experience a marked population increase, reaching
6.1 billion by 2050 and accounting then for 67 per cent of the world population.

Replacement-level fertility is the level that needs to be sustained over the long run to ensure that a population

replaces itself. For most countries having low or moderate mortality levels, replacement level is close to 2.1 children
per woman.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Since, 1974, when the first World Population Conference was held in Bucharest,

Romania, fertility has declined by more than 20 per cent in 135 developing countries and by over
50 per cent in 66 of them. The fastest fertility reductions occurred in countries in Asia, including
Bhutan, Hong Kong SAR China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Macao SAR China,
Mongolia, the Republic of Korea and Viet Nam. Fertility also declined rapidly in Algeria and
Tunisia in Northern Africa and in Mexico in Latin America. The average number of children in
those countries is currently below 2.38 children per woman.

Although most developing countries are already far advanced in the transition from high

to low fertility, 14 countries still have fertility levels of 6 children per woman or higher in 2005-
2010 and in three of them total fertility is equal or greater than 7 children per woman (table II.2
and table A.13). Although the fertility of those 14 countries is projected to decline after 2010 at a
pace of about one child per decade, none is expected to reach 2.1 children per woman by 2045-
2050 in the medium variant. As a result, their population is expected nearly to triple, passing from
227 million in 2008 to 642 million in 2050.

These 14 countries are least developed countries—Afghanistan, Angola, Burkina Faso,

Burundi, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger,
Sierra Leone, Somalia, Timor Leste and Uganda—and several are highly affected by the
HIV/AIDS epidemic. Moreover, a number of them have been experiencing civil strife and
political instability in recent years, factors that militate against the provision of basic services for
the population. The continuation of rapid population growth poses serious challenges to their
future development.

Despite the important contribution to population growth of high-fertility countries (those

with a total fertility above 6 children per woman), they account today for less than 4 per cent of
the world population and are expected to constitute 7 per cent of the world population by 2050,
according to the medium variant. Countries with total fertility ranging from 4 to 6 children per
woman account today for 9 per cent of the world population (table II.2).

In 2007, the majority of people in the developing world live in the 81 countries with total

fertility ranging from 2.1 to 4 children per woman, which account for 44 per cent of the world
population. Most of those countries are projected to have a total fertility below replacement level
by 2045-2050, according to the medium variant. Overall, 148 countries or areas are projected to
have below-replacement fertility in 2045-2050, with 119 having a total fertility equal to or lower
than 1.85 children per woman. As a result, according to the medium variant, nearly 80 per cent of
the world population is expected to live in countries with below-replacement fertility in 2045-
2050.

Fertility levels in developed countries, many of which experienced a “baby-boom” during

the 1950s and 1960s, have generally declined since the early 1970s to below-replacement level.
In fact, in 1970-1975, 19 countries out of the 45 developed countries in the world already had
below-replacement fertility. By 2005-2010, all developed countries had reached fertility levels
below 2.1 children per woman. Among them, 12 had reached historically unprecedented low
fertility levels (below 1.3 children per woman), with Belarus, Poland and the Ukraine exhibiting
the lowest levels in the developed world.

At the world level, the medium variant projects total fertility to be 2.02 children per

woman in 2045-2050 (table II.1), the result of 1.79 children per woman in the more developed
regions and 2.05 children per woman in the less developed regions. That is, although the
difference in total fertility between the more and the less developed regions narrows considerably
by mid-century, the less developed regions are still expected to have a higher total fertility than
the more developed regions. That difference persists in all projection variants. Total fertility in
the low variant is expected to be 1.29 children per woman in the more developed regions and 1.57

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

children per woman in the less developed regions. In the high variant, total fertility is projected to
be 2.28 children per woman in the more developed regions and 2.54 children per woman in the
less developed regions.

ABLE

II.2.

ISTRIBUTION OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS BY LEVEL OF TOTAL FERTILITY IN

1950-1955,

1970-1975,

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Population

(millions)

Number of countries

Range of total fertility

1953 1973 2008 2048

1950-1955 1970-1975 2005-2010

2045-2050

Greater or equal to 7...............

141

156

Between 6 and less than 7 ......

1 068

603

182

Between 5 and less than 6 ......

560

921

388

Between 4 and less than 5 ......

1 113

213

Between 3 and less than 4 ......

275

451

185

Between 2.1 and less than 3 ...

585

355

2 547

1 650

Less than 2.1...........................

687

2 922

7 294

148

Total ....................................... 2

675

3 924

6 748

9 128

195

Percentage

Greater or equal to 7...............

5.3

4.0 0.7 0.0

16.4

16.9

1.5

0.0

Between 6 and less than 7 ......

39.9

15.4

2.7

0.0

36.9

25.6

5.6

0.0

Between 5 and less than 6 ......

20.9

23.5

5.8

0.0

15.9

13.8

6.7

0.0

Between 4 and less than 5 ......

1.3

28.4

3.2

0.0

7.2

10.3

7.2

0.0

Between 3 and less than 4 ......

10.3

2.2

6.7

2.0

8.2

7.2

14.9

3.1

Between 2.1 and less than 3 ...

21.9 9.0 37.7 18.1

12.8

16.4

26.7

21.0

Less than 2.1...........................

0.4 17.5 43.3 79.9

2.6

9.7

37.4

75.9

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 inhabitants or more in 2007 are included.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Figure 3. Total fertility trajectories for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2050

(medium variant)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Period

l fe

ilit

(

childr

per

man)

World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Least developed countries

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Map 5. Total fertility in 2005-2010, medium variant (

children per woman

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Map 6. Total fertility in 2045-2050, medium variant (

children per woman

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

III.

MORTALITY AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS

RENDS AND PROSPECTS IN WORLD MORTALITY

The twentieth century witnessed the most rapid decline in mortality in human history. In

1950-1955, life expectancy at the world level was 46 years and it had reached 67 years by 2005-
2010. Over the next 45 years, life expectancy at the global level is expected to rise further to
reach 75 years in 2045-2050 (table III.1). The more developed regions already had a high
expectation of life in 1950-1955 (66 years) and have since experienced further gains in longevity.
By 2005-2010 their life expectancy stood at 76.5 years, 11 years higher than in the less developed
regions where the expectation of life at birth was 65.4 years. Although the gap between the two
groups is expected to narrow between 2005 and mid-century, in 2045-2050 the more developed
regions are still expected to have considerably higher life expectancy at birth than the less
developed regions (82.4 years versus 74.3 years).

ABLE

III.1.

IFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH FOR THE WORLD

THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT

GROUPS AND THE MAJOR AREAS

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

Major area

2005-2010

2045-2050

World ...............................................

67.2 75.4

More developed regions...................

76.5 82.4

Less developed regions ....................

65.4 74.3

Least developed countries ............

54.6

67.2

Other less developed countries.....

67.9

76.4

Africa ...............................................

52.8 66.1

Asia ..................................................

69.0 77.4

Europe..............................................

74.6 81.0

Latin America and the Caribbean.....

73.3

79.6

Northern America ............................ 78.5

83.3

Oceania ............................................

75.2 81.0

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and

Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World
Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United
Nations.

The 50 least developed countries, which include 31 of the countries that are highly

affected by HIV/AIDS, have been experiencing higher mortality than other development groups.
Their life expectancy at birth was 55 years in 2005-2010 and is expected to remain relatively low,
reaching 67 years in 2045-2050.

The general upward trend in life expectancy for the more developed and the less

developed regions (figure 4) conceals different trends among the world’s major areas (figure 5).
In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania, life expectancy has
been increasing at a steady pace. In contrast, Europe as a whole experienced a slowdown in the
increase of life expectancy starting in the late 1960s and stagnating levels since the late 1980s.
This trend is the result of severe reductions in life expectancy in countries of Eastern Europe,
particularly in the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. The remaining regions of Europe have
had increasing life expectancies which are currently equal to or higher than that of Northern
America.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Africa has the lowest life expectancy levels of any major area. Furthermore, life

expectancy in Africa has virtually stagnated since the late 1980s. While this trend is due in large
part to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, other factors have also played a role, including armed conflict,
economic stagnation, and resurgent infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria. The
recent negative developments in many countries of Africa represent major set backs in reducing
mortality. Only in 2005-2010 is life expectancy expected to begin rising again and, provided
efforts to reduce the expansion of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and to treat those affected by it
succeed, it is expected to continue rising to reach 66 years in 2045-2050. However, even if these
gains materialize, by mid-century the population of Africa is still expected to be subject to the
highest mortality levels in the world, with its overall life expectancy being 11 years lower than
the next lowest one, that of Asia.

In nearly all countries of the world, female life expectancy at birth is higher than that of

males. At the world level, females have a life expectancy of 70 years in 2005-2010, compared to
65 years for males (table III.2

)

. The female advantage is considerably larger in the more

developed regions (7 years) than in the less developed regions (3 years). The gap between male
and female life expectancy is particularly narrow in the least developed countries (2 years). At the
world level, a difference of about 5 years between female and male life expectancy is expected to
persist until 2045-2050, but whereas the female to male gap is life expectancy is expected to
narrow in the more developed regions, it is expected to widen in the less developed regions.

Under-five mortality, expressed as the probability of dying between birth and the exact

age of five, is an important indicator of development and the well-being of children. In 1950-
1955, almost a quarter (236 deaths per 1,000 births) of all children born worldwide did not reach
their fifth birthday. By 2005-2010, this rate had fallen to 74 deaths per 1,000 births (table A.19).
Although child mortality has fallen in all major areas, sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind in
achieving lower levels of child mortality (figure 6). In the 1950s, sub-Saharan Africa and South-
Central Asia had similarly high levels of child mortality and both experienced significant
reductions until the 1980s but thereafter, the pace of decline in child mortality in sub-Saharan
Africa slowed down. As a result, by 2005-2010, under-five mortality had reached 82 deaths per
1,000 births in South-Central Asia, but it was still a high 155 deaths per 1,000 births in sub-
Saharan Africa.

HE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF

AIDS

Twenty-seven years into the HIV/AIDS epidemic, its impact on the populations of the

highly-affected countries is evident. In the

2006 Revision

, the impact of HIV/AIDS is explicitly

modelled for 62 countries, up from 60 in the

2004 Revision

. In most of these countries, HIV

prevalence in 2005 was estimated to be 1 per cent or higher among the population aged 15-49
years (table A.20). Four populous countries with lower prevalence levels were also included
because they have a large number of persons living with HIV. They are Brazil, China, India and
the United States.

Among the 62 highly affected countries, 40 are in sub-Saharan Africa, five in Asia, 11 in

Latin America and the Caribbean, four in Europe, one in Northern America and one in Oceania.
Together they account for 35.5 million of the 38.6 million HIV-infected adults and children
estimated to be alive in 2005 or 90 per cent of the world total.

The dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic as reflected in the

2006 Revision

are consistent

with the estimates of HIV prevalence in 2005 as reported by UNAIDS

for each country.

Beginning in 2005, the

2006 Revision

assumes that changes in behaviour, along with treatment,

will reduce the chances of infection. Rates of recruitment into high-risk groups are assumed to

Report on the Global HIV/AIDS epidemic 2006 (Geneva, UNAIDS, 2006).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

decline as well. In light of major expansions in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, average
survival of those infected is expected to increase at a rate determined by projected levels of ART
coverage and efficacy. However, because the epidemic is still expanding, some countries are
expected to experience increasing levels of HIV prevalence over the medium-term future.
Nevertheless, in nearly all highly affected countries, HIV prevalence is projected to be lower in
2025 than in 2005 (table A.20).

In the

2006 Revision

, the estimated and projected long-term impact of HIV/AIDS is

somewhat less severe than that projected in the

2004 Revision

. Part of this reduction is due to the

incorporation of revised and lower estimates of HIV prevalence for several countries where
nationally representative data on the epidemic have become available. Another part stems from
the assumption that antiretroviral therapy will reach an ever increasing proportion of the persons
who need it and that, as a result, those persons will not only survive longer but will be less
infectious. However, realization of these projections is contingent on sustained commitment by
Governments to assure treatment for those infected and to promote preventive measures and
behavioural changes among the uninfected.

The

2006 Revision

confirms yet again the devastating toll AIDS has in terms of increased

morbidity, mortality and population loss. Life expectancy in the most affected countries already
shows dramatic declines. In Botswana, where HIV prevalence is estimated at 24 per cent in 2005
among the population aged 15-49 years, life expectancy has fallen from 64 years in 1985-1990 to
47 years in 2000-2005. By 2005-2010, life expectancy is expected to increase again to 51 years as
a result of declining HIV prevalence and increased access to anti-retroviral therapy. In Southern
Africa as a whole, where most of the worst affected countries are, life expectancy has fallen from
61 to 49 years over the last 20 years. While the impact in Southern Africa is particularly stark, the
majority of highly affected countries in Africa have experienced declines in life expectancy in
recent years because of the epidemic.

In countries where HIV prevalence rates are lower, AIDS has mainly slowed down the

increase in life expectancy. To assess the impact of the disease on life expectancy in these
countries, the medium variant projections are compared with a hypothetical scenario in which
AIDS does not exist. One can thus conclude that in 2005-2010, for instance, life expectancy is
expected to be lower than it would have been in the absence of AIDS by 2 years in Cambodia and
the Dominican Republic, and one year in Ukraine. A larger impact is yet to come in many
countries, such as India, where the impact of AIDS on life expectancy relative to the No-AIDS
scenario is projected to increase from 1.0 year in 2005-2010 to 1.3 years in 2010-2015. Similarly,
in the Russian Federation, that difference is projected to rise from 0.6 year in 2005-2010 to 2
years by 2015-2020.

The toll that HIV/AIDS is taking is already retarding progress in reducing child mortality.

Thirty-five per cent of children infected through mother-to-child transmission are estimated to die
before their first birthday, and 61 per cent die by age five. The impact of HIV on child mortality
is particularly dramatic in countries that had achieved relatively low levels of child mortality
before the epidemic began. In Zimbabwe, for instance, where under-five mortality was one of the
lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, it has risen from 87 child deaths per 1,000 births in 1985-1990 to
104 per 1,000 in 2000-2005 and is projected to decline to 94 per 1,000 in 2005-2010. In
Swaziland, under-five mortality has risen from 118 to 135 deaths per 1,000 births between 1985-
1990 and 2000-2005, and is expected to decline to 114 deaths per 1,000 in 2005-2010. The
impact of HIV/AIDS on child mortality is projected to decrease in the future with improved
prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

AIDS reshapes the percentage distribution of deaths by age. In 1985-1990, deaths in

Eastern Africa were concentrated among young children and older adults (figure 7), and adults

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

aged 20 to 49 years accounted for only 16 per cent of all deaths. By 2005-2010, a shift had taken
place in the distribution of deaths by age, with 29 per cent of all deaths occurring between the
ages of 20 and 49. Such large increases in mortality deplete the cohorts that are in the prime of
their working and parental careers, creating the potential for severe shocks to economic and
societal structures.

AIDS-related mortality and its impact on the potential number of births are reshaping the

age structure of populations in the affected countries. Figure 8 shows the effect on the population
of South Africa in 2015 by comparing the age distribution resulting from the No-AIDS scenario
with that projected under the medium variant. The population aged 15 or over is 16 per cent
smaller according the medium variant than according to the No-AIDS scenario. The reduced size
of cohorts under age 15 is partly due to the deaths of large numbers of women during the
reproductive ages and to the lower survival prospects of infected children. Total population in
South Africa in 2015 is projected to be 50.3 millions or 14 per cent lower than according to the
No-AIDS scenario.

Despite the effect of the epidemic on reducing population growth rates, the populations of

affected countries are generally expected to be larger by mid-century than today, mainly because
most of them maintain high to moderate fertility levels. In fact, owing to the downward revision
of the prevalence of HIV/AIDS combined with the expected expansion of access to anti-retroviral
therapy and efforts to control the further spread of HIV, all the countries with the highest
prevalence in 2005 are expected to experience positive population growth rates between 2005 and
2050. This trend marks a reversal from previous projections which expected outright reductions
of population (that is, negative population growth rates) in countries such as Botswana, Lesotho
or Swaziland.

ABLE

III.2.

IFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH BY SEX FOR THE WORLD AND THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT

GROUPS

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

Life expectancy at birth (years)

2005-2010

2045-2050

Major area

Male

Female

Male

Female

World .................................................. 65.0 69.5

73.1 77.8

More developed regions.................. 72.9 80.2 79.4 85.4
Less developed regions ...................

63.7 67.2

72.1 76.5

Least developed countries ........... 53.4

55.8

65.4

69.1

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of

the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision,
Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Figure 4. Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2050

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Period

Lif

e ex

pect

ancy

bir

ear

World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Least developed countries

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Figure 5. Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major areas, 1950-2050

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Period

Lif

e ex

pect

ancy

bir

)

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

Northern America

Oceania

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Figure 6. Under-five mortality for the world and selected regions, 1950-2050

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

130

180

230

280

330

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Period

Deaths under

e five per 1,000 live births

World

Sub-Saharan Africa

South-Central Asia

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Figure 7. Percentage distribution of deaths by age, Eastern Africa, 1985-1990 and 2005-2010

0-4

5-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60+

Age groups

Per

centage of tot

deaths

1985-1990

2005-2010

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Figure 8. Population in 2015, projected with AIDS and without AIDS, by sex and age group, South Africa

3,000

2,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Population

(thousands)

Male

Female

Without AIDS

With AIDS

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Map 7. Life expectancy at birth, 2005-2010, medium variant (

years

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Map 8. Life expectancy at birth, 2045-2050, medium variant (

years

)

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

IV.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Estimates of net migration between the major development groups show that since 1960

the more developed regions have been net gainers of emigrants from the less developed regions
(table IV.1). Furthermore, net migration to the more developed regions has been increasing
steadily from 1960 to 2000. During 1990-2000, the more developed regions were gaining
annually 2.5 million migrants. About half of that net flow was directed to Northern America (1.3
million annually). During 2000-2010, the level of net migration to the more developed regions as
a whole changes only slightly, but there is some increase in the net number of migrants received
by Northern America (1.5 million annually). Over the rest of the projection period, net migration
to the more developed regions is projected to remain at about 2.3 million per year, of which 1.3
million are directed to Northern America.

With respect to the other major areas, Asia was by far the major source of migrants

during 2000-2010 (1.3 million annually), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (1.1
million annually) and then Africa (0.4 million annually). Over the projection period, more than
half of all the net number of emigrants from the less developed regions are expected to be from
Asia, between 25 per cent to 30 per cent from Latin America and the Caribbean, and the
remaining from Africa.

At the country level, during 2000-2010, 33 of the 45 developed countries have been net

receivers of international migrants. This group includes traditional countries of immigration such
as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States, most of the populous countries in
Northern, Southern and Western Europe as well as the Russian Federation and Japan. The
movement of people from less developed regions to more developed regions has dominated the
world migration patterns for almost half a century, but flows among developing countries have
also been important. Several developing countries or areas have been attracting migrants in large
numbers, including Hong Kong SAR China, Israel, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Singapore, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. Jordan and the Syrian Arab
Republic have been the primary receivers of refugees from Iraq. Many African countries have
been the destination of refugee flows from neighbouring countries.

During 2000-2010, the countries having the highest levels of net emigration included

China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines. Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran
also registered high levels of net emigration, partly as a result of the repatriation of Afghani
refugees.

International migration is the component of population change most difficult to measure

and estimate reliably. Thus, the quality and quantity of the data used in the estimation and
projection of net migration varies considerably by country. Furthermore, the movement of people
across international boundaries, which is very often a response to changing socio-economic,
political and environmental forces, is subject to a great deal of volatility. Refugee movements, for
instance, may involve large numbers of people moving across boundaries in a short time. For
these reasons, projections of future international migration levels are the least robust part of
current population projections and reflect mainly a continuation of recent levels and trends in net
migration.

ABLE

IV.1.

VERAGE AN

NUAL

NET NUMBER OF I

TERNATIO

NAL

MIGRANTS PE

R D

CADE BY MAJ

DEVEL

PMENT G

OUP AND MAJ

AREA

1950-2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Net number of migrants (

thousands)

Major area

1950-

1960

1960-

1970

1970-

1980

1980-

1990

1990-

2000

2000-

2010

2010-

2020

2020-

2030

2030-

2040

2040-

2050

ore deve

lope

d regions

.........................

-3

556

1 088

1 530

2 493

2 902

2 268

2 269

2 272

Les

s deve

lope

d r

egions

..........................

-556

- 1 088

- 1 530

- 2 493

- 2 902

- 2 268

- 2 269

- 2 272

Least

deve

loped

countries

..................

-104

-148

-447

-788

-37

-29

-277

-373

-375

ther l

s deve

loped coun

tries

..........

108

-409

-641

-742

- 2 456

- 2 873

- 1 991

- 1 896

- 1 897

frica

.....................................................

-125

-242

-289

-267

-310

-416

-377

-395

-393

sia

........................................................

194

-22

-377

-451

- 1 340

- 1 311

- 1 210

- 1 221

- 1 222

Europe

...................................................

-489

-31

288

441

1 051

1 271

799

805

808

Latin

erica

nd the

Caribb

..........

-68

-293

-415

-781

-775

- 1 108

-616

-590

-595

orthern A

eri

..................................

403

479

748

972

1 277

1 453

1 305

1 300

ceani

a..................................................

109

111

101

102

Source:

Populatio

n Division of the

Depar

ent of

cono

ic and Social

Affair

s of the Unite

d Nations Secr

etar

iat (

2007)

. W

Populatio

n Pr

ospe

cts: T

he 2006 Revision,

Highlights.

New Yor

United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

V. ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE

2006 REVISION

The preparation of each new revision of the official population estimates and projections

of the United Nations involves two distinct processes: (a) the incorporation of all new and
relevant information regarding the past demographic dynamics of the population of each country
or area of the world; and (b) the formulation of detailed assumptions about the future paths of
fertility, mortality and international migration. The data sources used and the methods applied in
revising past estimates of demographic indicators (i.e., those referring to 1950-2005) are
presented in volume III of

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

(forthcoming).

The future population of each country is projected starting with an estimated population

for 1 July 2005. Because population data are not necessarily available for that date, the 2005
estimate is derived from the most recent population data available for each country, obtained
usually from a population census or a population register, projected to 2005 using all available
data on fertility, mortality and international migration trends between the reference date of the
population data available and 1 July 2005. In cases where recent data on the components of
population growth are not available, estimated demographic trends are projections based on the
most recent available data. Population data from all sources are evaluated for completeness,
accuracy and consistency, and adjusted as necessary

To project the population until 2050, the United Nations Population Division uses

assumptions regarding future trends in fertility, mortality and international migration. Because
future trends cannot be known with certainty, a number of projection variants are produced. The
following paragraphs summarize the main assumptions underlying the derivation of demographic
indicators for the period starting in 2005 and ending in 2050.

The

2006 Revision

includes eight projection variants and three AIDS scenarios. The eight

variants are: low; medium; high; constant-fertility;

instant-replacement-fertility; constant-

mortality; no change (constant-fertility and constant-mortality); and zero-migration. The

World

Population Prospects

Highlights

focuses on the medium variant of the

2006 Revision

, and results

from the first four variants are available on-line and are published in volume I of

World

Population Prospects

(forthcoming). The full set of results for all variants and scenarios are

available only on CD-ROM.

The first five variants, namely, the low, medium, high, constant-fertility and instant-

replacement-fertility, differ among themselves exclusively in the assumptions made regarding the
future path of fertility. The sixth variant, named “constant-mortality”, differs from the medium
variant only with regard to the path followed by future mortality. The seventh variant,
denominated “no change”, has constant mortality and constant fertility and thus differs from the
medium variant with respect to both fertility and mortality. The eight variant, denominated “zero-
migration”, differs from the medium variant only with regard to the path followed by future
international migration. Generally, variants differ from each other only over the period 2005-
2050.

In addition, the

2006 Revision

includes three AIDS scenarios named No-AIDS, high-

AIDS and AIDS-vaccine. These scenarios are variations of the medium variant and differ from
each other and from the medium variant in terms of the path mortality follows because they each
incorporate different assumptions regarding the course of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Note that only

For a general description of the procedures used in revising estimates of population dynamics, see "Chapter

VI. Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections" (pp. 100-104) in

World Population

Prospects: The 2004 Revision

, vol. III,

Analytical Report

(United Nations publication, Sales No. E.05.XIII.7) and for

the current Revision,

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

, vol. III,

Analytical Report

(United Nations

publication, forthcoming).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

62 countries are considered to be significantly affected by the epidemic. Consequently, the AIDS
scenarios produce different projections only for those countries.

To describe the different projection variants and scenarios, the various assumptions made

regarding fertility, mortality and international migration are presented below.

ERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS

CONVERGENCE TOWARD

TOTAL FERTILITY BELOW REPLACEMENT LEVEL

The fertility assumptions are described in terms of the following groups of countries:

•

High-fertility countries

: Countries that until 2005 had no fertility reduction or only an

incipient decline;

•

Medium-fertility countries

: Countries where fertility has been declining but whose level

was still above 2.1 children per woman in 2000-2005;

•

Low-fertility countries

: Countries with total fertility at or below 2.1 children per woman

in 2000-2005.

1. Medium-fertility assumption

Total fertility in all countries is assumed to converge eventually toward a level of 1.85

children per woman. However, not all countries reach this level during the projection period, that
is, by 2045-2050. Projection procedures differ slightly depending on whether a country had a total
fertility above or below 1.85 children per woman in 2000-2005.

Fertility in high- and medium-fertility countries is assumed to follow a path derived from

models of fertility decline established by the United Nations Population Division on the basis of
the past experience of all countries with declining fertility during 1950-2000. The models relate
the level of total fertility during a period to the average expected decline in total fertility during
the next period. If the total fertility projected by a model for a country falls to 1.85 children per
woman before 2050, total fertility is held constant at that level for the remainder of the projection
period (that is, until 2050). Therefore, the level of 1.85 children per woman represents a floor
value below which the total fertility of high- and medium-fertility countries is not allowed to drop
before 2050. However, it is not necessary for all countries to reach the floor value by 2050. If the
model of fertility change produces a total fertility above 1.85 children per woman for 2045-2050,
that value is used in projecting the population.

In all cases, the projected fertility paths yielded by the models are checked against recent

trends in fertility for each country. When a country’s recent fertility trends deviate considerably
from those consistent with the models, fertility is projected over an initial period of 5 or 10 years
in such a way that it follows recent experience. The model projection takes over after that
transition period. For instance, in countries where fertility has stalled or where there is no
evidence of fertility decline, fertility is projected to remain constant for several more years before
a declining path sets in.

Fertility in low-fertility countries is generally assumed to remain below 2.1 children per

woman during most of the projection period and reach 1.85 children per woman by 2045-2050.
For countries where total fertility was below 1.85 children per woman in 2000-2005, it is
assumed that over the first 5 or 10 years of the projection period fertility will follow the recently
observed trends in each country. After that transition period, fertility is assumed to increase
linearly at a rate of 0.05 children per woman per quinquennium. Thus, countries whose fertility is
currently very low need not reach a level of 1.85 children per woman by 2050.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

2. High-fertility assumption

Under the high variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children above the fertility in

the medium variant over most of the projection period. By 2045-2050, fertility in the high variant
is therefore half a child higher than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total
fertility of 1.85 children per woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 2.35 children
per woman in the high variant at the end of the projection period.

3. Low-fertility assumption

Under the low variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children below the fertility in

the medium variant over most of the projection period. By 2045-2050, fertility in the low variant
is therefore half a child lower than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total
fertility of 1.85 children per woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 1.35 children
per woman in the low variant at the end of the projection period.

4. Constant-fertility assumption

For each country, fertility remains constant at the level estimated for 2000-2005.

5. Instant-replacement-fertility assumption

For each country, fertility is set to the level necessary to ensure a net reproduction rate of

1 starting in 2005-2010. Fertility varies over the rest of the projection period in such a way that
the net reproduction rate always remains equal to unity thus ensuring, over the long-run, the
replacement of the population.

ORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS

INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY

EXCEPT WHEN AFFECTED BY

HIV/AIDS

1. Normal-mortality assumption

Mortality is projected on the basis of models of change of life expectancy produced by

the United Nations Population Division. These models produce smaller gains the higher the life
expectancy already reached. The selection of a model for each country is based on recent trends
in life expectancy by sex. For countries highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the model
incorporating a slow pace of mortality decline has generally been used so as to reflect a
slowdown in the reduction of mortality risks not related to HIV/AIDS.

2. The impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality

In the

2006 Revision

, all countries with HIV prevalence among persons aged 15 to 49

equal to or greater than one per cent are considered as seriously affected by the HIV/AIDS
epidemic and their mortality is projected by modelling explicitly the course of the epidemic and
projecting the yearly incidence of HIV infection. Also considered among the affected countries
are those where HIV prevalence is lower than one per cent but whose population is so large that
the number of individuals infected is large, such as Brazil, China or the United States. In total, 62
countries are considered to be highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the

2006 Revision.

The model developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and

Projections

is used to fit past estimates of HIV prevalence provided by UNAIDS for each of the

UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections (2002). Improved methods and

assumptions for estimation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its impact: Recommendations of the UNAIDS Reference
Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections.

AIDS,

vol. 16, pp. W1-W14. URL: http://www.epidem.org.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

affected countries so as to derive the parameters determining the past dynamics of the epidemic
for each of them. For most countries, the model is fitted assuming that the relevant parameters
have remained constant in the past. Beginning in 2005, the parameter PHI, which reflects the rate
of recruitment of new individuals into the high-risk or susceptible group, is projected to decline
by half every twenty years. The parameter R, which represents the force of infection, is projected
to decline by half every thirty years. The reduction in R reflects the assumption that changes in
behaviour among those subject to the risk of infection, along with increases in access to treatment
for those infected, will reduce the chances of transmitting the virus.

In the

2006 Revision

, prevention of mother-to-child transmission is modelled using

estimated country-specific coverage rates that average 13 per cent in 2005 among the 62 affected
countries, but vary between 0 and 90 per cent among them. These coverage rates are projected to
reach 60 per cent, on average, by 2015, varying between 40 per cent and 100 per cent among the
affected countries.

The coverage rate is assumed to remain constant between 2015 and 2050 at

the level reached by 2015 in each of the affected countries. Among women receiving treatment,
the probability of transmission from mother to child is assumed to be 1 per cent. These
assumptions produce a reduction in the incidence of HIV infection among children born to HIV-
positive women, but the size of the reduction varies from country to country depending on the
level of coverage that treatment reaches in each of them.

The survivorship of infected children

takes account of varying access to paediatric

treatment.

In the

2006 Revision

, HIV-infected children are divided into two groups: (

) for those

infected

in-utero

, among whom the disease progresses rapidly, average survival is expected to be

1.3 years, and (

) for those infected after birth through breastfeeding, among whom the disease

progresses slowly, average survival is 14 years without treatment.

11, 12

Explicit inclusion of

paediatric treatment is done via country-specific coverage rates which average 9 per cent in 2005
but vary between 0 and 99 per cent among the 62 affected countries. By 2015, the projected
coverage is expected to reach 60 per cent, on average, varying from 40 per cent to 100 per cent
among the affected countries.

Coverage levels remain constant from 2015 to 2050 at the level

reached in each country by 2015. The annual survival of children receiving treatment is 95 per
cent, so that their mean survival time is 19.5 years and the median survival time is 13.5 years in
the absence of other causes of death.

The

2006 Revision

incorporates a longer survival for persons receiving treatment with

highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART). The proportion of the HIV-positive population
receiving treatment in each country is consistent with estimates prepared by the World Health
Organization,

which averaged 25 per cent in 2005 but varied between 0 and 100 per cent among

the 62 affected countries. Coverage is projected to reach between 40 per cent and 100 per cent by
2015, averaging 60 per cent for the affected countries. Between 2015 and 2050, coverage levels

UNAIDS, UNICEF, WHO (2007).

Children and AIDS - A Stocktaking Report. Actions and Progress during

the First Year of Unite for Children, Unite against AIDS

(with Statistical Annexes). See Table 1. Preventing mother-to-

child transmission of HIV (pp. 29-31) and Table 2. Providing paediatric treatment (pp. 32-34). URL:
www.unicef.org/uniteforchildren.

Stover, J., N. Walker, N.C. Grassly, and M. Marston (2006). Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and

the number of people in need of treatment: Updates to the Spectrum projection package.

Sexually Transmitted

Infections

, vol. 82, Supplement 3: iii, pp. 45-50. URL: http://sti.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/82/suppl_3/iii45.

Boerma, J.T., K.A. Stanecki, M.L. Newell, C. Luo, M. Beusenberg, G.P. Garnett, K. Little, J.G. Calleja, S.

Crowley, J.Y. Kim, E. Zaniewski, N. Walker, J. Stover, and P.D. Ghys (2006). Monitoring the scale-up of antiretroviral
therapy programmes: methods to estimate coverage.

Bulletin of the World Health Organization,

vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 145-

150. URL: http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/84/2/145.pdf.

World Health Organization and UNAIDS (2006).

Progress on Global Access to HIV Antiretroviral Therapy.

A Report on "3 by 5" and Beyond

. See Annex 1. Estimated number of people receiving antiretroviral therapy, people

needing antiretroviral therapy, percentage coverage and numbers of antiretroviral therapy sites in low- and middle-
income countries (pp. 71-76). URL: http://www.who.int/hiv/fullreport_en_highres.pdf.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

remain constant at the level reached in each country by 2015. It is assumed that adults receiving
treatment have, on average, a 90 per cent chance of surviving each year in the absence of other
causes of death. Under this assumption, mean survival time after the initiation of therapy is 9.5
years and the median survival time is 6.6 years, in the absence of other causes of death. Therapy
is assumed to start at the time full-blown AIDS develops. Without treatment, infected adults have
a mean survival time of two years after the onset of full-blown AIDS.

3. No-AIDS assumption

For each of the 62 countries for which the impact of HIV/AIDS has been taken into

account, mortality is estimated and projected by applying the mortality levels likely to be
exhibited by the non-infected population to the whole population, thus excluding the direct
impacts of the epidemic. Because AIDS started affecting the populations in the majority of the
highly-affected countries around 1980, the results of the No-AIDS scenario differ from those of
the medium variant not only during the projection period (2005-2050) but also during part of the
estimation period (mainly during 1980-2005). As mentioned above, in countries highly affected
by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the slow pace of mortality decline has generally been used to project
the reduction of mortality risks not related to HIV/AIDS.

4. High-AIDS assumption

Mortality in the high-AIDS scenario is projected by assuming that the parameters of the

model determining the path of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, specifically PHI and R, remain constant
at their 2005 level. This assumption produces in the long run a relatively high endemic level of
the disease. In contrast with the medium variant which includes the effect of AIDS, the effect of
treatment is not incorporated in the high-AIDS scenario.

5. AIDS-vaccine assumption

The so-called AIDS-vaccine assumption refers to the ideal case in which a perfectly

effective vaccine against HIV would be instantly available to everyone by 2010. Under this
assumption, mortality is projected by assuming that no new HIV infections occur as of 2010. In
terms of modelling, this assumption is equivalent to making the force of infection parameter R
become zero in 2010 and remain at that level over the rest of the projection period.

6. Constant-mortality assumption

Under this assumption, mortality is maintained constant in each country at the level

estimated for 2000-2005.

NTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS

1. Normal-migration assumption

Under the normal migration assumption, the future path of international migration is set

on the basis of past international migration estimates and consideration of the policy stance of
each country with regard to future international migration flows. Projected levels of net migration
are generally kept constant over most of the projection period.

2. Zero-migration assumption

Under this assumption, for each country, international migration is set to zero starting in

2005-2010.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

LEVEN PROJECTION VARIANTS

The

2006 Revision

includes eleven different projection variants or scenarios (table V.1).

Five of those variants differ among themselves only with respect to the level of fertility in each,
that is, they share the assumptions made with respect to mortality and international migration.
The five fertility variants are: low, medium, high, constant-fertility and instant-replacement
fertility. A comparison of their results allows an assessment of the effects that different fertility
paths have on other demographic parameters.

In addition to the five fertility variants, a constant-mortality variant, a zero-migration

variant and a no change variant (constant-fertility and constant-mortality) have been prepared.
The constant-mortality variant and the zero-migration variant both have the same fertility
assumption (i.e. medium fertility). Furthermore, the constant-mortality variant has the same
international migration assumption as the medium variant. Consequently, the results of the
constant-mortality variant can be compared with those of the medium variant to assess the effect
that changing mortality has on other demographic parameters. Similarly, the zero-migration
variant differs from the medium variant only with respect to the underlying assumption regarding
international migration. Therefore, the zero-migration variant allows an assessment of the effect
that non-zero net migration has on other demographic parameters. Lastly, the no change variant
has the same international migration as the medium variant but differs from the latter by having
constant fertility and constant mortality. When compared to the medium variant, therefore, its
results shed light on the effects that changing fertility and mortality have on the results obtained.

Lastly, as part of the modelling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and to evaluate its

demographic impact, three AIDS mortality scenarios have been computed. They all share the
same fertility and international migration assumptions as the medium variant. Consequently, the
results of the AIDS mortality scenarios can be compared with those of the medium variant to
assess the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effect of changing mortality, respectively, on other
demographic parameters. The AIDS scenarios are hypothetical and serve only as a basis for
comparison.

ABLE

V.1.

PROJECTION VARIANTS OR SCENARIOS IN TERMS OF ASSUMPTIONS FOR FERTILITY

MORTALITY AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Assumptions

Projection variant or scenario

Fertility

Mortality

International

Migration

Low fertility

Low

Normal*

Normal

Medium fertility

Medium

Normal*

Normal

High fertility

High

Normal*

Normal

Constant-fertility

Constant as of 2000-2005

Normal*

Normal

Instant-replacement-fertility

Instant-replacement

Normal*

Normal

Constant-mortality

Medium

Constant as of 2000-2005

Normal

No change

Constant as of 2000-2005

Normal

Zero-migration

Medium

Normal*

Zero

No-AIDS

Medium

No-AIDS since 1980

Normal

High-AIDS

Medium

High-AIDS as of 2005

Normal

AIDS-vaccine

Medium

AIDS-vaccine as of 2010

Normal

* Including the impact of HIV/AIDS in 62 countries, as described in section B.2.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ETHODOLOGICAL CHANGES INTRODUCED IN THE

2006

EVISION

The following changes and adjustments were made in the

2006 Revision

in relation to

procedures followed in the

2004 Revision

•

In the medium variant, the fertility of countries with a total fertility below 1.85 children
per woman in 2000-2005 is projected first by continuing recent trends and then by
increasing fertility linearly by 0.05 children per woman per quinquennium instead of an
increase of 0.07 children as in the

2004 Revision

. These countries do not necessarily

reach a level of 1.85 children per woman by 2045-2050.

•

The models of the incidence of HIV infection by age have been modified. In the new
models, mean age at infection is generally higher than in the models used in previous
revisions, particularly for males. A delay in contracting the disease reduces the impact of
AIDS-related mortality on life expectancy.

•

The survival of HIV-positive children was raised with respect to previously used models
not only for those receiving treatment but also for those living without treatment.

•

For HIV-positive adults receiving ART, survival after becoming infected was also
increased in relation to previously used models.

•

The effects of receiving ART have been modelled explicitly among both children and
adults. In addition, the effects of mother-to-child transmission are projected to decline as
access to treatment among women expands.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

VI. CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY MAJOR AREA

AND REGION OF THE WORLD

Africa

Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Burundi Angola

Algeria Benin

Comoros

Cameroon

Egypt

Burkina Faso

Djibouti

Central African Republic

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Cape Verde

Eritrea

Chad

Morocco

Côte d’Ivoire

Ethiopia Congo

Sudan Gambia

Kenya

Democratic Republic of the

Tunisia

Ghana

Madagascar

Congo

Western Sahara

Guinea

Malawi Equatorial

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Mauritius

Gabon

Southern Africa

Liberia

Mozambique

São Tomé and Príncipe

Mali

Réunion

Botswana Mauritania

Rwanda

Lesotho Niger

Seychelles*

Namibia

Nigeria

Somalia

South Africa

Saint Helena

Uganda

Swaziland

Senegal

United Republic of Tanzania

Sierra Leone

Zambia

Togo

Zimbabwe

Asia

Eastern Asia

South-Central Asia

South-Eastern Asia

Western Asia

China Afghanistan

Brunei Darussalam

Armenia

China, Hong Kong SAR

Bangladesh

Cambodia

Azerbaijan

China, Macao SAR

Bhutan

Indonesia

Bahrain

Democratic People’s

India

Lao People’s Democratic

Cyprus

Republic of Korea

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Republic

Georgia

Japan Kazakhstan

Malaysia

Iraq

Mongolia Kyrgyzstan

Myanmar Israel

Republic of Korea

Maldives

Philippines

Jordan

Nepal

Singapore

Kuwait

Pakistan

Timor-Leste

Lebanon

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Occupied Palestinian

Tajikistan

Viet

Nam

Territory

Turkmenistan

Oman

Uzbekistan

Qatar

Saudi

Arabia

Syrian

Arab

Republic

Turkey

United

Arab

Emirates

Yemen

Including Mayotte.

Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon.

Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha.

The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

LASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES

(

continued

)

Europe

Eastern Europe

Northern Europe

Southern Europe

Western Europe

Belarus Channel

Islands

Albania

Austria

Bulgaria Denmark Andorra* Belgium
Czech Republic

Estonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

France

Hungary Faeroe

Islands* Croatia

Germany

Moldova Finland

Gibraltar* Liechtenstein*

Poland Iceland Greece Luxembourg
Romania Ireland Holy

See

Monaco*

Russian Federation

Isle of Man*

Italy

Netherlands

Slovakia Latvia Malta

Switzerland

Ukraine Lithuania

Montenegro

Norway

Portugal

Sweden

San

Marino*

United Kingdom of Great

Serbia

Britain and Northern

Slovenia

Ireland

Spain

The

former

Yugoslav

Republic of Macedonia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Caribbean

Central America

South America

Anguilla Belize Argentina
Antigua and Barbuda*

Costa Rica

Bolivia

Aruba El

Salvador

Brazil

Bahamas Guatemala

Chile

Barbados Honduras Colombia
British Virgin Islands*

Mexico

Ecuador

Cayman Islands*

Nicaragua

Falkland Islands (Malvinas)*

Cuba Panama

French

Guiana

Dominica*

Guyana

Dominican Republic

Paraguay

Grenada

Peru

Guadeloupe

Suriname

Haiti

Uruguay

Jamaica

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of)

Martinique

Montserrat*

Netherlands Antilles

Puerto Rico

Saint Kitts and Nevis*

Saint Lucia

Saint Vincent and the

Grenadines

Trinidad and Tobago

Turks and Caicos Islands*

United States Virgin Islands

Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.

Including Åland Islands.

Refers to the Vatican City State.

Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.

Also referred to as United Kingdom.

Also referred to as TFYR Macedonia.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

LASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES

(

continued

)

Northern America

Bermuda*

Canada

Greenland*

Saint Pierre and Miquelon*

United States of America

Oceania

Australia/New Zealand

Melanesia

Micronesia

Polynesia

Australia

Fiji

Guam

American

Samoa*

New Zealand

New Caledonia Kiribati*

Cook

Islands*

Papua New Guinea

Marshall Islands*

French Polynesia

Solomon

Islands

Micronesia

Niue*

Vanuatu

(Federated States of)

Pitcairn*

Nauru*

Samoa

Northern

Mariana

Islands*

Tokelau*

Palau*

Tonga

Tuvalu*
Wallis

and

Futuna

Islands*

Sub-Saharan Africa

Angola Côte

d'Ivoire

Kenya Nigeria

Swaziland

Benin

Democratic Republic

Lesotho

Réunion

Togo

Botswana

of the Congo

Liberia

Rwanda

Uganda

Burkina Faso

Djibouti

Madagascar

Saint Helena

United Republic

Burundi Equatorial Guinea

Malawi

São Tomé and Príncipe of

Tanzania

Cameroon Eritrea Mali

Senegal Zambia

Cape Verde

Ethiopia

Mauritania

Seychelles

Zimbabwe

Central African Republic

Gabon Mauritius Sierra

Leone

Chad Gambia

Mozambique

Somalia

Comoros Ghana Namibia

South

Africa

Congo Guinea

Niger Sudan

Guinea-Bissau

Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and Norfolk Island.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

LASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES

(

continued

)

Least developed countries

Afghanistan Ethiopia

Niger

Angola Gambia Rwanda
Bangladesh Guinea

Samoa

Benin

Guinea-Bissau

São Tomé and Príncipe

Bhutan Haiti Senegal
Burkina Faso

Kiribati

Sierra Leone

Burundi

Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Solomon Islands

Cambodia Lesotho Somalia
Cape Verde

Liberia

Sudan

Central African Republic

Madagascar Timor-Leste

Chad Malawi

Togo

Comoros Maldives Tuvalu
Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Uganda

Djibouti

Mauritania

United Republic of Tanzania

Equatorial Guinea

Mozambique

Vanuatu

Eritrea Myanmar

Yemen

Nepal

Zambia

OTE

: Countries with a population of less than 100,000 in 2007 are indicated by an asterisk (*).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

VII. ORDERING THE DATA ON CD-ROM

Data from the

2006 Revision

are available in digital form. The CD-ROM edition of the

World Population Prospects

, prepared by the United Nations Population Division, provides a

comprehensive and consistent set of population data for 229 countries and areas, 33 country
aggregates, including the world as a whole, the more and the less developed regions, and the
major areas. All data are available for a period of 100 years; data for 1950-2005 are estimates and
those thereafter are projections.

The results are presented on two CDs (Comprehensive and Extended) that differ with

regard to the data included and their prices. The Comprehensive CD includes data for eight
projection variants (based on different combinations of fertility, mortality and international
migration assumptions). In addition, the effects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the 62 most
affected countries in the world are documented through three AIDS scenarios assuming
alternative courses of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The Extended CD combines the information
contained in the Comprehensive CD and adds interpolated population figures by single years of
age and single calendar year as well as interpolated time series of all basic demographic
indicators.

The data are presented in Excel and database formats (ASCII comma delimited format

for all datasets). The Microsoft Excel files correspond to versions 97-2003 and later of this
software. All CDs include the English version of the Executive Summary and the assumptions
underlying the

2006 Revision

. The database files are only available in the Extended CD.

A description of the data contained in the different CD-ROMs and an order form are

posted on the web site of the Population Division at

www.unpopulation.org

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

VIII. ANNEX TABLES

ABLE

A.1.

OTAL POPULATION BY SEX IN

2007

AND SEX RATIO BY COUNTRY IN

2007

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Population (thousands)

Country or area

Total

Male

Female

Sex ratio

(males per

100 females)

World.......................................................

6 671 226

3 360 743

3 310 484

102

Afghanistan...............................................

27 145

14 059

13 086

107

Albania .....................................................

3 190

1 588

1 602

Algeria ......................................................

33 858

17 091

16 767

102

American Samoa.......................................

104

Andorra.....................................................

107

Angola ......................................................

17 024

8 394

8 630

Anguilla ....................................................

100

Antigua and Barbuda ................................

Argentina ..................................................

39 531

19 331

20 200

Armenia ....................................................

3 002

1 397

1 606

Aruba ........................................................

104

Australia ...................................................

20 743

10 322

10 421

Austria ......................................................

8 361

4 099

4 261

Azerbaijan.................................................

8 467

4 116

4 352

Bahamas ...................................................

331

162

169

Bahrain .....................................................

753

431

322

134

Bangladesh ...............................................

158 665

81 164

77 501

105

Barbados...................................................

294

142

152

Belarus......................................................

9 689

4 509

5 180

Belgium ....................................................

10 457

5 120

5 338

Belize........................................................

288

145

143

102

Benin ........................................................

9 033

4 555

4 478

102

Bermuda ...................................................

Bhutan ......................................................

658

348

311

112

Bolivia ......................................................

9 525

4 748

4 777

Bosnia and Herzegovina ...........................

3 935

1 913

2 022

Botswana ..................................................

1 882

935

946

Brazil ........................................................

191 791

94 571

97 220

British Virgin Islands................................

104

Brunei Darussalam ...................................

390

202

188

107

Bulgaria ....................................................

7 639

3 700

3 939

Burkina Faso.............................................

14 784

7 398

7 386

100

Burundi.....................................................

8 508

4 166

4 343

Cambodia..................................................

14 444

7 041

7 403

Cameroon .................................................

18 549

9 270

9 279

100

Canada ......................................................

32 876

16 283

16 593

Cape Verde ...............................................

530

255

275

Cayman Islands.........................................

Central African Republic..........................

4 343

2 119

2 224

Chad .........................................................

10 781

5 359

5 422

Channel Islands.........................................

149

Chile .........................................................

16 635

8 229

8 406

ABLE

A.1 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

Total

Male

Female

Sex ratio

(males per

100 females)

China ........................................................

1 328 630

686 153

642 477

107

China, Hong Kong SAR ...........................

7 206

3 454

3 752

China, Macao SAR ...................................

481

230

251

Colombia ..................................................

46 156

22 716

23 440

Comoros ...................................................

839

421

418

101

Congo .......................................................

3 768

1 868

1 900

Cook Islands .............................................

106

Costa Rica.................................................

4 468

2 270

2 197

103

Côte d'Ivoire .............................................

19 262

9 773

9 489

103

Croatia ......................................................

4 555

2 193

2 363

Cuba .........................................................

11 268

5 640

5 628

100

Cyprus ......................................................

855

416

439

Czech Republic.........................................

10 186

4 971

5 215

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea....................

23 790

11 737

12 053

Dem. Republic of the Congo ....................

62 636

31 022

31 613

Denmark ...................................................

5 442

2 695

2 748

Djibouti.....................................................

833

416

417

100

Dominica ..................................................

100

Dominican Republic .................................

9 760

4 894

4 866

101

Ecuador.....................................................

13 341

6 686

6 655

100

Egypt ........................................................

75 498

37 790

37 708

100

El Salvador ...............................................

6 857

3 364

3 493

Equatorial Guinea .....................................

507

251

256

Eritrea .......................................................

4 851

2 381

2 470

Estonia ......................................................

1 335

615

720

Ethiopia ....................................................

83 099

41 339

41 760

Faeroe Islands...........................................

106

Falkland Islands (Malvinas)......................

Fiji ............................................................

839

426

413

103

Finland......................................................

5 277

2 585

2 692

France .......................................................

61 647

30 051

31 597

French Guiana ..........................................

202

102

100

103

French Polynesia.......................................

263

134

128

105

Gabon .......................................................

1 331

666

665

100

Gambia .....................................................

1 709

855

853

100

Georgia .....................................................

4 395

2 074

2 321

Germany ...................................................

82 599

40 390

42 210

Ghana........................................................

23 478

11 899

11 580

103

Gibraltar....................................................

100

Greece.......................................................

11 147

5 518

5 629

Greenland .................................................

113

Grenada ....................................................

106

Guadeloupe...............................................

445

213

231

Guam ........................................................

173

104

Guatemala.................................................

13 354

6 510

6 844

Guinea ......................................................

9 370

4 729

4 641

102

Guinea-Bissau...........................................

1 695

838

857

Guyana......................................................

738

383

355

108

ABLE

A.1 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

Total

Male

Female

Sex ratio

(males per

100 females)

Haiti..........................................................

9 598

4 751

4 847

Holy See ...................................................

Honduras ..................................................

7 106

3 529

3 577

Hungary ....................................................

10 030

4 777

5 253

Iceland ......................................................

301

151

150

101

India..........................................................

1 169 016

604 990

564 026

107

Indonesia ..................................................

231 627

115 682

115 945

100

Iran (Islamic Republic of).........................

71 208

36 080

35 129

103

Iraq ...........................................................

28 993

14 656

14 337

102

Ireland.......................................................

4 301

2 146

2 154

100

Isle of Man................................................

Israel .........................................................

6 928

3 432

3 496

Italy...........................................................

58 877

28 604

30 273

Jamaica .....................................................

2 714

1 339

1 375

Japan.........................................................

127 967

62 471

65 495

Jordan .......................................................

5 924

3 045

2 879

106

Kazakhstan ...............................................

15 422

7 371

8 051

Kenya........................................................

37 538

18 711

18 827

Kiribati......................................................

Kuwait ......................................................

2 851

1 709

1 142

150

Kyrgyzstan................................................

5 317

2 621

2 696

Lao People's Dem. Republic.....................

5 859

2 919

2 940

Latvia........................................................

2 277

1 049

1 228

Lebanon ....................................................

4 099

2 008

2 091

Lesotho .....................................................

2 008

946

1 062

Liberia ......................................................

3 750

1 875

100

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya ...........................

6 160

3 190

2 971

107

Liechtenstein.............................................

Lithuania...................................................

3 390

1 579

1 810

Luxembourg .............................................

467

230

236

Madagascar...............................................

19 683

9 787

9 896

Malawi......................................................

13 925

6 923

7 002

Malaysia ...................................................

26 572

13 497

13 075

103

Maldives ..................................................

306

157

149

105

Mali ..........................................................

12 337

6 008

6 329

Malta.........................................................

407

202

204

Marshall Islands........................................

104

Martinique ................................................

399

189

210

Mauritania.................................................

3 124

1 581

1 543

102

Mauritius ..................................................

1 262

626

636

Mexico......................................................

106 535

51 944

54 591

Micronesia (Fed. States of).......................

111

104

Moldova....................................................

3 794

1 815

1 979

Monaco.....................................................

Mongolia ..................................................

2 629

1 311

1 318

Montenegro...............................................

598

289

309

Montserrat.................................................

Morocco....................................................

31 224

15 348

15 876

ABLE

A.1 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

Total

Male

Female

Sex ratio

(males per

100 females)

Mozambique .............................................

21 397

10 385

11 012

Myanmar ..................................................

48 798

24 141

24 658

Namibia ....................................................

2 074

1 023

1 051

Nauru ........................................................

Nepal ........................................................

28 196

13 973

14 223

Netherlands...............................................

16 419

8 124

8 295

Netherlands Antilles .................................

192

103

New Caledonia .........................................

242

122

120

101

New Zealand.............................................

4 179

2 058

2 120

Nicaragua..................................................

5 603

2 790

2 813

Niger.........................................................

14 226

7 213

7 013

103

Nigeria ......................................................

148 093

74 019

74 074

100

Niue ..........................................................

Northern Mariana Islands .........................

Norway .....................................................

4 698

2 334

2 365

Occupied Palestinian Territory .................

4 017

2 044

1 974

104

Oman ........................................................

2 595

1 447

1 149

126

Pakistan ....................................................

163 902

84 318

79 585

106

Palau .........................................................

116

Panama .....................................................

3 343

1 686

1 657

102

Papua New Guinea ...................................

6 331

3 211

3 120

103

Paraguay ...................................................

6 127

3 096

3 031

102

Peru...........................................................

27 903

13 974

13 928

100

Philippines ................................................

87 960

44 292

43 668

101

Pitcairn......................................................

108

Poland.......................................................

38 082

18 385

19 697

Portugal ....................................................

10 623

5 137

5 486

Puerto Rico ...............................................

3 991

1 912

2 079

Qatar .........................................................

841

563

277

203

Republic of Korea.....................................

48 224

24 096

24 127

100

Réunion ....................................................

807

394

413

Romania....................................................

21 438

10 433

11 005

Russian Federation ...................................

142 499

65 953

76 545

Rwanda.....................................................

9 725

4 692

5 033

Saint Helena..............................................

Saint Kitts and Nevis ................................

Saint Lucia................................................

165

Saint Pierre and Miquelon ........................

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.............

120

Samoa .......................................................

187

108

San Marino ...............................................

São Tomé and Príncipe.............................

158

Saudi Arabia .............................................

24 735

13 616

11 118

122

Senegal .....................................................

12 379

6 161

6 217

Serbia........................................................

9 858

4 876

4 982

Seychelles.................................................

101

Sierra Leone..............................................

5 866

2 889

2 977

Singapore..................................................

4 436

2 232

2 204

101

ABLE

A.1 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

Total

Male

Female

Sex ratio

(males per

100 females)

Slovakia ....................................................

5 390

2 614

2 776

Slovenia ....................................................

2 002

977

1 025

Solomon Islands .......................................

496

257

239

107

Somalia.....................................................

8 699

4 317

4 382

South Africa..............................................

48 577

23 885

24 692

Spain.........................................................

44 279

21 832

22 447

Sri Lanka ..................................................

19 299

9 514

9 786

Sudan .......................................................

38 560

19 419

19 142

101

Suriname...................................................

458

229

100

Swaziland .................................................

1 141

552

590

Sweden .....................................................

9 119

4 525

4 594

Switzerland...............................................

7 484

3 644

3 840

Syrian Arab Republic ...............................

19 929

10 062

9 866

102

Tajikistan ..................................................

6 736

3 337

3 399

TFYR Macedonia .....................................

2 038

1 017

1 022

100

Thailand....................................................

63 884

31 105

32 779

Timor-Leste ..............................................

1 155

586

569

103

Togo .........................................................

6 585

3 258

3 327

Tokelau.....................................................

Tonga........................................................

100

104

Trinidad and Tobago ................................

1 333

655

678

Tunisia ......................................................

10 327

5 199

5 129

101

Turkey ......................................................

74 877

37 708

37 169

101

Turkmenistan............................................

4 965

2 444

2 522

Turks and Caicos Islands ..........................

102

Tuvalu.......................................................

Uganda......................................................

30 884

15 453

15 431

100

Ukraine .....................................................

46 205

21 303

24 902

United Arab Emirates ...............................

4 380

2 966

1 414

210

United Kingdom .......................................

60 769

29 774

30 995

United Republic of Tanzania ....................

40 454

20 123

20 330

United States of America..........................

305 826

150 508

155 318

United States Virgin Islands .....................

111

Uruguay ....................................................

3 340

1 612

1 728

Uzbekistan ................................................

27 372

13 611

13 761

Vanuatu ....................................................

226

115

111

104

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) ................

27 657

13 893

13 764

101

Viet Nam ..................................................

87 375

43 687

43 688

100

Wallis and Futuna Islands.........................

101

Western Sahara.........................................

480

254

226

113

Yemen ......................................................

22 389

11 326

11 063

102

Zambia......................................................

11 922

5 942

5 980

Zimbabwe.................................................

13 349

6 638

6 711

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.2.

OTAL POPULATION BY COUNTRY

1950,

2007,

2015,

2025

AND

2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Population (thousands)

Country or area

1950

2007

2015

2025

2050

World ...................................................

2 535 093

6 671 226

7 295 135

8 010 509

9 191 287

Afghanistan ...........................................

8 151

27 145

35 631

46 927

79 423

Albania..................................................

1 215

3 190

3 346

3 488

3 451

Algeria...................................................

8 753

33 858

38 088

42 882

49 610

American Samoa ...................................

113

Andorra .................................................

Angola...................................................

4 148

17 024

21 231

27 324

44 566

Anguilla.................................................

Antigua and Barbuda.............................

101

111

Argentina...............................................

17 150

39 531

42 676

46 115

51 382

Armenia.................................................

1 354

3 002

2 976

2 908

2 458

Aruba.....................................................

104

105

107

104

Australia................................................

8 219

20 743

22 397

24 393

28 041

Austria...................................................

6 935

8 361

8 514

8 622

8 500

Azerbaijan .............................................

2 896

8 467

9 008

9 508

9 404

Bahamas ................................................

331

363

397

449

Bahrain..................................................

116

753

857

972

1 173

Bangladesh ............................................

43 852

158 665

180 114

206 024

254 084

Barbados................................................

211

294

300

303

272

Belarus ..................................................

7 745

9 689

9 260

8 668

6 960

Belgium.................................................

8 628

10 457

10 613

10 742

10 643

Belize ....................................................

288

335

389

487

Benin .....................................................

2 005

9 033

11 331

14 460

22 506

Bermuda ................................................

Bhutan ...................................................

168

658

737

819

935

Bolivia...................................................

2 714

9 525

10 854

12 368

14 908

Bosnia and Herzegovina........................

2 661

3 935

3 899

3 751

3 160

Botswana...............................................

416

1 882

2 062

2 265

2 703

Brazil.....................................................

53 975

191 791

210 048

228 833

254 085

British Virgin Islands ............................

Brunei Darussalam ................................

390

453

526

681

Bulgaria.................................................

7 251

7 639

7 180

6 551

4 949

Burkina Faso .........................................

3 983

14 784

18 475

23 729

37 503

Burundi .................................................

2 456

8 508

11 223

15 040

28 315

Cambodia ..............................................

4 346

14 444

16 641

19 489

25 114

Cameroon ..............................................

4 466

18 549

21 525

25 136

33 144

Canada...................................................

13 737

32 876

35 191

37 912

42 754

Cape Verde............................................

146

530

628

750

1 002

Cayman Islands .....................................

Central African Republic.......................

1 314

4 343

5 021

5 831

7 609

Chad ......................................................

2 429

10 781

13 429

17 504

29 395

Channel Islands .....................................

102

149

151

152

144

Chile......................................................

6 082

16 635

17 926

19 266

20 655

China .....................................................

554 760

1 328 630

1 388 600

1 445 782

1 408 846

China, Hong Kong SAR........................

1 974

7 206

7 744

8 305

8 980

China, Macao SAR................................

190

481

507

535

524

ABLE

A.2 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

1950

2007

2015

2025

2050

Colombia...............................................

12 568

46 156

50 663

55 563

61 860

Comoros ................................................

173

839

1 007

1 217

1 715

Congo....................................................

808

3 768

4 459

5 362

7 561

Cook Islands..........................................

Costa Rica .............................................

966

4 468

4 983

5 549

6 426

Côte d'Ivoire..........................................

2 505

19 262

22 343

26 233

34 704

Croatia...................................................

3 850

4 555

4 455

4 274

3 692

Cuba ......................................................

5 920

11 268

11 250

11 231

9 911

Cyprus ...................................................

494

855

929

1 018

1 183

Czech Republic .....................................

8 925

10 186

10 129

9 910

8 825

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea.................

9 737

23 790

24 416

25 228

24 666

Dem. Republic of the Congo.................

12 184

62 636

80 569

107 481

186 837

Denmark................................................

4 271

5 442

5 510

5 578

5 528

Djibouti .................................................

833

951

1 113

1 480

Dominica...............................................

Dominican Republic..............................

2 427

9 760

10 890

12 172

13 972

Ecuador .................................................

3 387

13 341

14 597

16 074

17 988

Egypt .....................................................

21 834

75 498

86 219

98 513

121 219

El Salvador............................................

1 951

6 857

7 602

8 525

10 040

Equatorial Guinea..................................

226

507

616

773

1 183

Eritrea....................................................

1 141

4 851

6 165

7 684

11 465

Estonia...................................................

1 101

1 335

1 300

1 252

1 128

Ethiopia .................................................

18 434

83 099

100 967

124 996

183 404

Faeroe Islands........................................

Falkland Islands (Malvinas) ..................

Fiji.........................................................

289

839

874

905

910

Finland ..................................................

4 009

5 277

5 384

5 464

5 360

France....................................................

41 829

61 647

63 746

65 769

68 270

French Guiana .......................................

202

242

293

406

French Polynesia ...................................

263

290

319

357

Gabon....................................................

469

1 331

1 494

1 698

2 081

Gambia..................................................

294

1 709

2 072

2 534

3 649

Georgia..................................................

3 527

4 395

4 188

3 945

3 134

Germany................................................

68 376

82 599

81 825

80 341

74 088

Ghana ....................................................

5 243

23 478

27 294

31 993

41 881

Gibraltar ................................................

Greece ...................................................

7 566

11 147

11 273

11 236

10 808

Greenland ..............................................

Grenada .................................................

106

108

Guadeloupe ...........................................

210

445

465

481

468

Guam.....................................................

173

191

211

242

Guatemala .............................................

3 146

13 354

16 227

19 926

27 473

Guinea ...................................................

2 619

9 370

11 449

14 547

22 711

Guinea-Bissau .......................................

505

1 695

2 160

2 913

5 324

Guyana ..................................................

423

738

715

683

477

Haiti.......................................................

3 221

9 598

10 830

12 305

15 275

Holy See................................................

Honduras ...............................................

1 487

7 106

8 280

9 682

12 079

Hungary.................................................

9 338

10 030

9 783

9 448

8 459

ABLE

A.2 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

1950

2007

2015

2025

2050

Iceland...................................................

143

301

320

337

355

India ......................................................

371 857

1 169 016

1 302 535

1 447 499

1 658 270

Indonesia ...............................................

79 538

231 627

251 567

271 227

296 885

Iran (Islamic Republic of) .....................

16 913

71 208

79 379

88 027

100 174

Iraq ........................................................

5 340

28 993

34 947

43 293

61 942

Ireland ...................................................

2 969

4 301

4 805

5 275

6 179

Isle of Man ............................................

Israel......................................................

1 258

6 928

7 797

8 722

10 527

Italy .......................................................

47 104

58 877

59 001

58 079

54 610

Jamaica..................................................

1 403

2 714

2 819

2 908

2 763

Japan .....................................................

83 625

127 967

126 607

121 614

102 511

Jordan....................................................

472

5 924

6 923

8 029

10 121

Kazakhstan ............................................

6 703

15 422

16 299

16 987

17 312

Kenya ....................................................

6 077

37 538

46 167

57 176

84 757

Kiribati ..................................................

107

123

151

Kuwait...................................................

152

2 851

3 378

3 988

5 240

Kyrgyzstan ............................................

1 740

5 317

5 782

6 208

6 566

Lao People's Dem. Republic .................

1 524

5 859

6 699

7 713

9 290

Latvia ....................................................

1 949

2 277

2 189

2 072

1 768

Lebanon.................................................

1 443

4 099

4 431

4 784

5 221

Lesotho..................................................

734

2 008

2 107

2 211

2 356

Liberia ...................................................

824

3 750

5 032

6 771

12 460

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya ........................

1 029

6 160

7 129

8 087

9 683

Liechtenstein .........................................

Lithuania ...............................................

2 567

3 390

3 263

3 102

2 654

Luxembourg ..........................................

296

467

510

569

722

Madagascar ...........................................

4 234

19 683

24 107

29 954

44 453

Malawi ..................................................

2 881

13 925

17 020

21 353

31 944

Malaysia................................................

6 110

26 572

30 047

33 769

39 631

Maldives................................................

306

353

411

510

Mali .......................................................

3 329

12 337

15 655

20 589

34 231

Malta .....................................................

312

407

420

431

428

Marshall Islands ....................................

Martinique.............................................

222

399

404

350

Mauritania .............................................

692

3 124

3 757

4 548

6 364

Mauritius ...............................................

493

1 262

1 335

1 406

1 446

Mexico ..................................................

27 741

106 535

115 756

124 695

132 278

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...................

111

116

125

134

Moldova ................................................

2 341

3 794

3 645

3 496

2 883

Monaco .................................................

Mongolia ...............................................

761

2 629

2 858

3 112

3 388

Montenegro ...........................................

399

598

604

613

603

Montserrat .............................................

Morocco ................................................

8 953

31 224

34 330

37 865

42 583

Mozambique..........................................

6 442

21 397

24 698

28 954

39 117

Myanmar ...............................................

17 158

48 798

51 998

55 374

58 709

Namibia.................................................

485

2 074

2 288

2 560

3 041

Nauru.....................................................

Nepal .....................................................

8 643

28 196

32 843

38 855

51 891

ABLE

A.2 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

1950

2007

2015

2025

2050

Netherlands ...........................................

10 114

16 419

16 625

16 960

17 235

Netherlands Antilles..............................

112

192

205

207

186

New Caledonia ......................................

242

270

303

360

New Zealand .........................................

1 908

4 179

4 457

4 764

5 209

Nicaragua ..............................................

1 295

5 603

6 277

7 075

8 169

Niger .....................................................

2 208

14 226

18 754

26 250

53 163

Nigeria...................................................

33 960

148 093

175 715

210 129

288 696

Niue.......................................................

Northern Mariana Islands......................

111

152

Norway..................................................

3 265

4 698

4 932

5 228

5 732

Occupied Palestinian Territory..............

1 005

4 017

5 090

6 553

10 265

Oman.....................................................

456

2 595

3 051

3 614

4 639

Pakistan .................................................

36 944

163 902

190 659

224 956

292 205

Palau......................................................

Panama..................................................

860

3 343

3 774

4 267

5 093

Papua New Guinea................................

1 798

6 331

7 319

8 565

11 155

Paraguay................................................

1 473

6 127

7 008

8 026

9 868

Peru .......................................................

7 632

27 903

30 768

34 148

39 049

Philippines.............................................

19 996

87 960

101 090

115 878

140 466

Pitcairn ..................................................

Poland ...................................................

24 824

38 082

37 580

36 337

30 260

Portugal .................................................

8 405

10 623

10 805

10 712

9 982

Puerto Rico............................................

2 218

3 991

4 160

4 328

4 422

Qatar......................................................

841

966

1 102

1 333

Republic of Korea .................................

18 859

48 224

49 117

49 019

42 327

Réunion .................................................

248

807

883

965

1 072

Romania ................................................

16 311

21 438

20 598

19 494

15 928

Russian Federation ................................

102 702

142 499

136 479

128 193

107 832

Rwanda .................................................

2 162

9 725

12 147

15 220

22 627

Saint Helena ..........................................

Saint Kitts and Nevis.............................

Saint Lucia ............................................

165

180

195

216

Saint Pierre and Miquelon.....................

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines .........

120

124

125

106

Samoa....................................................

187

198

211

215

San Marino............................................

São Tomé and Príncipe .........................

158

180

216

296

Saudi Arabia..........................................

3 201

24 735

29 265

34 797

45 030

Senegal..................................................

2 543

12 379

14 878

17 999

25 257

Serbia ....................................................

6 732

9 858

9 970

9 959

9 635

Seychelles..............................................

100

Sierra Leone ..........................................

1 944

5 866

6 929

8 639

13 524

Singapore ..............................................

1 022

4 436

4 809

5 104

5 026

Slovakia.................................................

3 463

5 390

5 392

5 308

4 664

Slovenia.................................................

1 473

2 002

1 992

1 941

1 694

Solomon Islands ....................................

496

589

705

955

Somalia .................................................

2 264

8 699

10 881

13 712

21 057

South Africa ..........................................

13 683

48 577

50 260

52 300

55 590

Spain .....................................................

28 009

44 279

46 000

46 623

46 401

ABLE

A.2 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Population (thousands)

Country or area

1950

2007

2015

2025

2050

Sri Lanka ...............................................

7 339

19 299

19 960

20 328

18 715

Sudan.....................................................

9 190

38 560

45 613

54 267

73 029

Suriname ...............................................

215

458

475

482

426

Swaziland ..............................................

273

1 141

1 189

1 242

1 360

Sweden..................................................

7 014

9 119

9 440

9 854

10 481

Switzerland............................................

4 694

7 484

7 699

7 978

8 434

Syrian Arab Republic ............................

3 536

19 929

23 510

27 519

34 887

Tajikistan...............................................

1 532

6 736

7 703

8 929

10 760

TFYR Macedonia..................................

1 230

2 038

2 037

2 001

1 746

Thailand ................................................

20 607

63 884

66 763

68 803

67 376

Timor-Leste...........................................

433

1 155

1 504

2 011

3 462

Togo ......................................................

1 329

6 585

8 045

9 925

14 050

Tokelau .................................................

Tonga ....................................................

100

104

112

123

Trinidad and Tobago .............................

636

1 333

1 374

1 401

1 325

Tunisia...................................................

3 530

10 327

11 204

12 170

13 178

Turkey ...................................................

21 484

74 877

82 111

89 557

98 946

Turkmenistan.........................................

1 211

4 965

5 498

6 068

6 780

Turks and Caicos Islands.......................

Tuvalu ...................................................

Uganda ..................................................

5 158

30 884

39 966

54 011

92 935

Ukraine..................................................

37 298

46 205

43 428

39 879

30 937

United Arab Emirates............................

4 380

5 263

6 268

8 521

United Kingdom....................................

50 616

60 769

62 787

65 190

68 717

United Republic of Tanzania.................

7 650

40 454

48 999

59 989

85 077

United States of America ......................

157 813

305 826

329 010

354 930

402 415

United States Virgin Islands..................

111

110

107

Uruguay.................................................

2 239

3 340

3 431

3 548

3 641

Uzbekistan.............................................

6 314

27 372

30 645

33 963

38 386

Vanuatu .................................................

226

270

328

454

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of).............

5 094

27 657

31 294

35 373

42 049

Viet Nam...............................................

27 367

87 375

96 467

106 357

119 971

Wallis and Futuna Islands .....................

Western Sahara......................................

480

625

775

938

Yemen ...................................................

4 316

22 389

28 288

36 567

58 009

Zambia ..................................................

2 413

11 922

13 842

16 539

22 868

Zimbabwe..............................................

2 747

13 349

14 508

15 969

19 112

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

ABLE

OUNTRIES ACCOUNT

ING FOR ABOUT

PER CENT OF

RLD POPU

TION ORDERE

D B

POPULATIO

ESTIMATES A

ND MEDIUM VARI

ANT

1950,

2007

AND

2050

ank

Country

lat

950

hou

san

)

mula

rcen

ank

Country

lat

007

hou

san

)

mula

rcen

ank

Country

lat

n in

2050

hou

san

)

mula

rcen

China

555

21.

China

1 329

19.

India

1 658

18.

India

372

36.

India

1 169

37.

China

1 409

33.

United States

158

42.

United States

306

42.

United States

402

37.

Russian Feder

ation

103

46.

Indonesia

232

45.

Indonesia

297

41.

Japan

50.

Brazil

192

48.

Pakistan

292

44.

Indonesia

53.

Pakistan

164

50.

Nigeria

289

47.

Ger

any

56.

Bangladesh

159

53.

Brazil

254

50.

Brazil

58.

Nigeria

148

55.

Bangladesh

254

52.

United Kingdo

60.

Russian Feder

ation

142

57.

Dem

. Republic of the Congo

187

54.

10.

Italy

61.

10.

Japan

128

59.

10.

thiopia

183

56.

11.

Bangladesh

63.

11.

Mex

ico

107

61.

11.

Philippines

140

58.

12.

France

65.

12.

Philippines

62.

12.

Mex

ico

132

59.

13.

Ukraine

66.

13.

Viet Na

63.

13.

121

61.

14.

Pakistan

68.

14.

thiopia

65.

14.

Viet Na

120

62.

15.

Nigeria

69.

15.

Ger

any

66.

15.

Russian Feder

ation

108

63.

16.

Spain

70.

16.

67.

16.

Japan

103

64.

17.

Mex

ico

71.

17.

68.

17.

an (I

sla

ic Repu

blic of)

100

65.

18.

Viet Na

72.

18.

an (I

sla

ic Repu

blic of)

69.

18.

66.

19.

Poland

73.

19.

Thailand

70.

19.

Uganda

67.

20.

74.

20.

Dem

. Republic of the Congo

71.

20.

United Republic of

anzania

68.

21.

France

72.

21.

Kenya

69.

22.

United Kingdo

73.

22.

Afghanistan

70.

23.

Italy

74.

23.

Ger

any

71.

24.

Myan

74.

24.

Sudan

72.

25.

United Kingdo

73.

26.

France

73.

27.

Thailand

74.

Source:

Populatio

n Division of the

Depar

ent of

cono

ic and Social

Affair

s of the United

Nations Secr

etar

iat (

2007)

. W

Population

ospe

cts: T

he 2006 Revision,

Highlights.

New Yor

United Nations.

ABLE

RAGE ANN

UAL R

TE OF POPU

LATI

ON CHANG

E FOR

THE

DEV

ELOPMENT

GROU

PS AND MAJ

R AREAS

ESTIMATES AND

ECTIONS ACCO

RDING TO PROJ

TION VARIANTS

1950-2050

centage)

2007-

2050

Major area

1950-

2007 1950-

1975 1975-

2007

Low

Medium

High

Constant

orld

..................................................

1.70

1.90

1.54

0.37

0.75

1.10

1.33

ore deve

lope

d regions

......................

0.72

1.01

0.48

-0.32

0.04

0.39

-0.01

Les

s deve

lope

d r

egions

.......................

2.02

2.26

1.84

0.50

0.88

1.24

1.55

Least

deve

loped

countries

...............

2.44

2.33

2.53

1.45

1.80

2.12

2.89

ther l

s deve

loped coun

tries

.......

1.96

2.25

1.73

0.28

0.67

1.05

1.22

frica

..................................................

2.56

2.48

2.63

1.35

1.69

2.02

2.82

sia

.....................................................

1.84

2.12

1.63

0.23

0.62

0.99

1.12

Europe.................................................

0.51

0.84

0.24

-0.59

-0.22

0.14

-0.36

Latin

erica

nd the

Caribb

.......

2.15

2.65

1.77

0.27

0.69

1.08

1.15

orthern A

eri

...............................

1.19

1.40

1.03

0.28

0.64

0.98

0.71

ceani

...............................................

1.73

2.03

1.49

0.48

0.82

1.15

1.17

Source:

Populatio

n Division of the

Depar

ent of

cono

ic and Social

Affair

s of the Unite

d Nations Secr

etar

iat (

2007)

. W

Populatio

n Pr

ospe

cts: T

he 2006

Revision, Highlights. New

York: Unit

ed Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.5.

HE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND THE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE

LOWEST ANNUAL AVERAGE RATES OF POPULATION CHANGE

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

2005-2010

2045-2050

Rank

Country or area

Annual

average rate

of change

(percentage)

Rank

Country or area

Annual

average rate

of change

(percentage)

A. Highest rate of change

1. Liberia

4.50

1. Niger

2.38

2. Burundi

3.90

2. Burundi

2.19

3. Afghanistan

3.85

3. Liberia

2.03

4. Western Sahara

3.72

4. Guinea-Bissau

1.98

5. Timor-Leste

3.50

5. Timor-Leste

1.84

6. Niger

3.49

6. Uganda

1.78

7. Eritrea

3.24

7. Dem. Republic of the Congo

1.77

8. Uganda

3.24

8. Chad

1.72

9. Dem. Republic of the Congo

3.22

9. Afghanistan

1.70

10. Occupied Palestinian Territory

3.18

10. Mali

1.67

B. Lowest rate of change

1. Moldova

-0.90

1. Guyana

-2.12

2. Georgia

-0.79

2. United States Virgin Islands

-1.33

3. Ukraine

-0.76

3. Bulgaria

-1.24

4. Bulgaria

-0.72

4. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

-1.16

5. Belarus

-0.55

5. Ukraine

-1.11

6. Lithuania

-0.53

6. Georgia

-1.11

7. Latvia

-0.52

7. Belarus

-1.01

8. Russian Federation

-0.51

8. Romania

-0.97

9. Romania

-0.45

9. Suriname

-0.94

10. Estonia

-0.35

10. Martinique

-0.92

WORLD

1.17

WORLD

0.36

Source

: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are considered.

ABLE

OUNTRIES ACCOUNT

ING FOR

PER C

NT OF T

E A

UAL POPUL

TION

INCREASE IN TH

WORLD

DURING

1950-19

55,

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

(

MEDIUM VARIAN

)

ank

Country

popu

tio

eas

1950

-1955

hou

san

)

mula

rcen

ank

Country

popu

tio

eas

2005

-2010

hou

san

)

mula

rcen

ank

Country

popu

tio

inc

ase

2045

-2050

hou

san

)

mula

rcen

China

10 849

23.

India

17 156

21.

India

5 270

15.

India

6 735

37.

China

7 707

31.

Dem

. Republic of the Congo

3 158

25.

United States of

ica

2 652

42.

Nigeria

3 391

36.

Nigeria

2 847

34.

Brazil

1 782

46.

Pakistan

3 054

40.

thiopia

2 217

40.

Russian Feder

ation

1 740

50.

United States of

ica

2 969

43.

Pakistan

2 201

47.

Indonesia

1 382

53.

Indonesia

2 707

47.

United States of

ica

1 598

52.

Japan

1 238

56.

Bangladesh

2 671

50.

Uganda

1 579

57.

Bangladesh

913

57.

Brazil

2 430

53.

Bangladesh

1 402

61.

Mex

ico

902

59.

thiopia

2 116

56.

Afghanistan

1 294

65.

10.

Pakistan

837

61.

10.

Dem

. Republic of the Congo

2 054

59.

10.

Niger

1 191

68.

11.

Nigeria

778

63.

11.

Philippines

1 687

61.

11.

Kenya

1 032

72.

12.

Philippines

645

64.

12.

1 337

62.

12.

United Republic of

anzania

851

74.

13.

Thailand

630

65.

13.

Mex

ico

1 205

64.

14.

625

67.

14.

Viet Na

1 163

65.

15.

572

68.

15.

Afghanistan

1 064

67.

16.

Ukraine

560

69.

16.

Uganda

1 019

68.

17.

Viet Na

537

70.

17.

United Republic of

anzania

1 013

69.

18.

Republic of Kor

513

71.

18.

Kenya

1 009

71.

19.

Poland

491

72.

19.

an (I

sla

ic Repu

blic of)

971

72.

20.

an (I

sla

ic Repu

blic of)

435

73.

20.

947

73.

21.

thiopia

408

74.

21.

Sudan

866

74.

WOR

47 132

100.

WOR

78 361

100.

WOR

33 061

100.

Source

: Populatio

n Division of the Depar

ent of

conom

and Social Affair

s of the Unite

Nations Secr

etar

iat (

2007)

. W

Populati

on Pr

ospects:

he 2006 Revisio

Highlights.

New Yor

k: United

Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.7.

EN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE

LOWEST RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050,

MEDIUM VARIANT

(

percentage

)

2005-2010

2045-2050

Rank

Country or area

Rate of natural

increase

Rank

Country or area

Rate of natural

increase

A. Highest rate of natural increase

1. Niger

3.52

1. Niger

2.38

2. Mali

3.34

2. Burundi

2.21

3. Uganda

3.32

3. Liberia

2.02

4. Timor-Leste

3.32

4. Guinea-Bissau

2.00

5. Occupied Palestinian Territory

3.22

5. Timor-Leste

1.87

6. Burundi

3.15

6. Uganda

1.79

7. Dem. Republic of the Congo

3.15

7. Mali

1.79

8. Liberia

3.13

8. Dem. Republic of the Congo

1.77

9. Guinea-Bissau

3.11

9. Chad

1.74

10. Yemen

3.09

10. Afghanistan

1.70

B. Lowest rate of natural increase

1. Ukraine

-0.72

1. Ukraine

-1.05

2. Bulgaria

-0.59

2. Bulgaria

-1.04

3. Russian Federation

-0.55

3. Belarus

-0.98

4. Belarus

-0.53

4. Republic of Korea

-0.88

5. Latvia

-0.43

5. Singapore

-0.87

6. Hungary

-0.39

6. Romania

-0.85

7. Estonia

-0.35

7. Bosnia and Herzegovina

-0.83

8. Lithuania

-0.32

8. Japan

-0.83

9. Croatia

-0.31

9. Poland

-0.80

10. Romania

-0.26

10. Georgia

-0.80

WORLD

1.17

WORLD

0.36

Source

: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are considered.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.8.

VERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS

MEDIUM VARIANT

(

percentage

)

Average annual rate of change

(percentage)

Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

World .............................................

1.24

1.17

1.10

1.00

0.88

0.36

Afghanistan.....................................

3.79

3.85

3.18

2.80

2.70

1.70

Albania ...........................................

0.47

0.57

0.61

0.49

0.34

-0.25

Algeria ............................................

1.48

1.51

1.45

1.29

1.08

0.36

American Samoa.............................

2.31

2.01

1.73

1.57

1.46

0.60

Andorra...........................................

2.01

0.36

0.13

-0.07

-0.20

-0.82

Angola ............................................

2.89

2.78

2.76

2.59

2.45

1.63

Anguilla ..........................................

1.74

1.41

1.31

1.10

0.89

0.22

Antigua and Barbuda ......................

1.57

1.16

1.02

0.90

0.77

0.16

Argentina ........................................

0.98

1.00

0.93

0.83

0.72

0.27

Armenia ..........................................

-0.42

-0.21

-0.07

-0.14

-0.33

-0.89

Aruba ..............................................

2.61

0.01

0.41

0.24

0.16

-0.35

Australia..........................................

1.19

1.01

0.95

0.89

0.82

0.44

Austria ............................................

0.44

0.36

0.17

0.14

0.11

-0.13

Azerbaijan.......................................

0.51

0.75

0.76

0.65

0.43

-0.25

Bahamas..........................................

1.29

1.20

1.11

0.96

0.85

0.28

Bahrain ...........................................

2.18

1.79

1.56

1.35

1.18

0.47

Bangladesh......................................

1.89

1.67

1.56

1.42

1.27

0.56

Barbados .........................................

0.38

0.32

0.25

0.16

0.04

-0.71

Belarus............................................

-0.52

-0.55

-0.57

-0.63

-0.70

-1.01

Belgium ..........................................

0.40

0.24

0.17

0.13

0.11

-0.13

Belize..............................................

2.38

2.08

1.83

1.59

1.41

0.63

Benin...............................................

3.22

3.02

2.76

2.55

2.32

1.43

Bermuda..........................................

0.41

0.25

0.15

0.11

0.05

-0.32

Bhutan.............................................

2.63

1.43

1.48

1.14

0.98

0.34

Bolivia ............................................

1.98

1.77

1.58

1.39

1.22

0.47

Bosnia and Herzegovina .................

0.67

0.13

-0.22

-0.34

-0.44

-0.83

Botswana ........................................

1.20

1.23

1.09

0.98

0.90

0.63

Brazil ..............................................

1.41

1.26

1.08

0.93

0.79

0.20

British Virgin Islands......................

1.41

1.13

0.96

0.85

0.74

0.00

Brunei Darussalam..........................

2.29

2.05

1.81

1.58

1.40

0.78

Bulgaria ..........................................

-0.66

-0.72

-0.80

-0.87

-0.96

-1.24

Burkina Faso...................................

3.19

2.89

2.76

2.59

2.41

1.47

Burundi ...........................................

3.29

3.90

3.22

3.04

2.82

2.19

Cambodia........................................

1.76

1.74

1.78

1.68

1.48

0.77

Cameroon........................................

2.30

2.00

1.81

1.63

1.47

0.86

Canada ............................................

1.01

0.90

0.84

0.78

0.71

0.39

Cape Verde .....................................

2.35

2.23

2.06

1.87

1.67

0.81

Cayman Islands...............................

2.50

1.51

0.92

0.80

0.69

0.03

Central African Republic ................

1.63

1.83

1.78

1.58

1.41

0.86

Chad................................................

3.62

2.88

2.73

2.66

2.65

1.72

Channel Islands...............................

0.26

0.19

0.11

0.07

0.03

-0.34

ABLE

A.8 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Average annual rate of change

(percentage)

Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

Chile ...............................................

1.12

1.00

0.90

0.78

0.66

0.06

China...............................................

0.67

0.58

0.54

0.47

0.34

-0.32

China, Hong Kong SAR .................

1.15

1.00

0.86

0.75

0.65

0.11

China, Macao SAR .........................

1.40

0.70

0.68

0.62

0.48

-0.36

Colombia ........................................

1.51

1.27

1.13

0.99

0.86

0.17

Comoros..........................................

2.65

2.46

2.20

1.98

1.82

1.03

Congo .............................................

2.39

2.11

2.12

1.92

1.77

1.09

Cook Islands ...................................

-2.67

-2.23

-1.50

-0.24

-0.20

0.23

Costa Rica.......................................

1.93

1.50

1.32

1.14

1.01

0.32

Côte d'Ivoire ...................................

1.73

1.84

1.69

1.52

0.88

Croatia ............................................

0.20

-0.09

-0.34

-0.39

-0.44

-0.64

Cuba................................................

0.21

-0.01

0.00

-0.03

-0.79

Cyprus.............................................

1.23

1.06

1.04

0.98

0.86

0.48

Czech Republic...............................

-0.06

-0.03

-0.09

-0.17

-0.27

-0.52

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ..........

0.58

0.34

0.33

0.34

0.31

-0.24

Dem. Republic of the Congo ..........

2.95

3.22

3.10

2.95

2.81

1.77

Denmark .........................................

0.30

0.21

0.14

0.12

-0.11

Djibouti...........................................

1.94

1.74

1.62

1.54

1.61

0.87

Dominica ........................................

-0.18

-0.29

0.07

0.14

0.37

-0.26

Dominican Republic .......................

1.59

1.47

1.33

1.19

1.04

0.26

Ecuador...........................................

1.19

1.07

1.16

1.04

0.89

0.19

Egypt...............................................

1.82

1.76

1.61

1.42

1.24

0.55

El Salvador .....................................

1.47

1.37

1.25

1.21

1.08

0.37

Equatorial Guinea ...........................

2.34

2.38

2.43

2.37

2.19

1.42

Eritrea .............................................

4.12

3.24

2.94

2.36

2.05

1.27

Estonia ............................................

-0.38

-0.35

-0.33

-0.34

-0.41

-0.40

Ethiopia...........................................

2.59

2.51

2.40

2.23

2.04

1.25

Faeroe Islands .................................

0.76

0.68

0.60

0.55

0.49

0.18

Falkland Islands (Malvinas)............

0.52

0.59

0.52

0.40

0.29

0.16

Fiji...................................................

0.65

0.62

0.46

0.31

0.39

-0.26

Finland............................................

0.27

0.29

0.23

0.18

0.11

-0.10

France .............................................

0.60

0.49

0.39

0.34

0.29

0.04

French Guiana.................................

3.02

2.41

2.18

2.02

1.86

0.99

French Polynesia.............................

1.59

1.31

1.21

1.05

0.86

0.24

Gabon .............................................

1.76

1.48

1.44

1.36

1.21

0.58

Gambia ...........................................

3.11

2.63

2.32

2.10

1.93

1.15

Georgia ...........................................

-1.07

-0.79

-0.53

-0.61

-0.59

-1.11

Germany .........................................

0.08

-0.07

-0.13

-0.16

-0.20

-0.37

Ghana..............................................

2.24

1.99

1.84

1.67

1.51

0.80

Gibraltar..........................................

1.22

0.08

0.04

0.02

-0.03

-0.32

Greece.............................................

0.23

0.21

0.10

0.00

-0.07

-0.23

Greenland........................................

0.43

0.60

0.59

0.53

0.38

-0.05

Grenada...........................................

0.94

0.02

0.13

0.21

0.14

-0.81

Guadeloupe.....................................

0.79

0.68

0.51

0.38

0.27

-0.37

Guam ..............................................

1.66

1.30

1.18

1.09

0.97

0.30

ABLE

A.8 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Average annual rate of change

(percentage)

Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

Guatemala.......................................

2.48

2.47

2.42

2.18

1.93

0.90

Guinea.............................................

1.86

2.16

2.65

2.49

2.30

1.46

Guinea-Bissau.................................

3.06

2.98

3.06

3.03

2.96

1.98

Guyana............................................

0.14

-0.22

-0.44

-0.49

-2.12

Haiti ................................................

1.62

1.58

1.48

1.35

1.21

0.62

Holy See .........................................

-0.10

0.05

0.00

-0.23

0.21

Honduras.........................................

1.96

1.95

1.89

1.68

1.45

0.60

Hungary ..........................................

-0.25

-0.29

-0.32

-0.34

-0.36

-0.44

Iceland ............................................

1.02

0.84

0.75

0.56

0.48

0.02

India................................................

1.62

1.46

1.31

1.14

0.97

0.32

Indonesia.........................................

1.31

1.16

0.98

0.80

0.70

0.10

Iran (Islamic Republic of)...............

0.97

1.35

1.33

1.19

0.88

0.26

Iraq..................................................

2.22

1.84

2.60

2.28

2.01

1.11

Ireland.............................................

1.71

1.77

1.20

1.02

0.85

0.48

Isle of Man......................................

0.46

0.04

0.01

-0.02

-0.06

-0.35

Israel ...............................................

1.91

1.66

1.39

1.18

1.07

0.51

Italy.................................................

0.33

0.13

-0.01

-0.14

-0.18

-0.33

Jamaica ...........................................

0.71

0.54

0.46

0.37

0.25

-0.50

Japan ...............................................

0.14

-0.02

-0.18

-0.34

-0.47

-0.78

Jordan .............................................

2.89

3.04

1.41

1.52

1.45

0.62

Kazakhstan......................................

0.34

0.71

0.67

0.51

0.31

-0.10

Kenya..............................................

2.61

2.65

2.55

2.26

2.02

1.26

Kiribati............................................

1.82

1.58

1.49

1.43

1.33

0.56

Kuwait ............................................

3.84

2.44

2.04

1.77

1.55

0.78

Kyrgyzstan......................................

1.01

1.10

1.01

0.82

0.60

-0.03

Lao People's Dem. Republic ...........

1.62

1.72

1.64

1.51

1.31

0.50

Latvia..............................................

-0.66

-0.52

-0.49

-0.51

-0.58

-0.63

Lebanon ..........................................

1.23

1.05

0.94

0.82

0.71

0.14

Lesotho ...........................................

0.99

0.63

0.61

0.52

0.44

0.16

Liberia.............................................

2.28

4.50

3.09

3.01

2.93

2.03

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya..................

2.04

1.97

1.76

1.43

1.10

0.52

Liechtenstein...................................

1.03

0.89

0.79

0.74

0.68

0.32

Lithuania.........................................

-0.45

-0.53

-0.44

-0.47

-0.55

-0.69

Luxembourg....................................

0.89

1.13

1.08

1.11

0.84

Madagascar.....................................

2.83

2.66

2.48

2.27

2.07

1.27

Malawi............................................

2.58

2.57

2.48

2.36

2.18

1.32

Malaysia..........................................

1.95

1.69

1.47

1.27

1.06

0.41

Maldives .........................................

1.57

1.76

1.80

1.65

1.37

0.61

Mali.................................................

2.98

3.02

2.95

2.83

2.65

1.67

Malta...............................................

0.69

0.43

0.39

0.33

0.23

-0.07

Marshall Islands .............................

1.68

2.23

1.86

1.47

1.09

0.17

Martinique ......................................

0.51

0.28

0.14

0.05

-0.07

-0.92

Mauritania.......................................

2.88

2.53

2.22

2.00

1.82

1.01

Mauritius.........................................

0.91

0.78

0.68

0.58

0.46

-0.07

Mexico............................................

0.89

1.12

0.97

0.81

0.68

-0.07

ABLE

A.8 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Average annual rate of change

(percentage)

Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

Micronesia (Fed. States of) .............

0.55

0.46

0.58

0.74

0.78

-0.04

Moldova..........................................

-1.34

-0.90

-0.34

-0.36

-0.48

-0.88

Monaco ...........................................

0.30

0.33

0.39

0.45

0.43

0.24

Mongolia.........................................

0.88

0.96

1.09

0.95

0.75

0.08

Montenegro.....................................

-1.95

-0.27

0.15

0.20

0.09

-0.15

Montserrat.......................................

2.54

1.15

0.88

0.66

0.53

0.03

Morocco..........................................

1.13

1.20

1.17

1.06

0.90

0.25

Mozambique ...................................

2.42

1.95

1.75

1.64

1.54

0.99

Myanmar.........................................

0.89

0.85

0.76

0.67

0.58

0.01

Namibia ..........................................

1.44

1.32

1.18

1.06

0.54

Nauru ..............................................

0.15

0.29

0.62

0.46

0.31

-0.25

Nepal...............................................

2.08

1.97

1.88

1.76

1.60

0.88

Netherlands.....................................

0.50

0.21

0.15

0.16

0.24

-0.05

Netherlands Antilles .......................

0.62

1.33

0.54

0.21

0.03

-0.68

New Caledonia................................

1.71

1.54

1.35

1.20

1.06

0.48

New Zealand...................................

1.22

0.90

0.79

0.70

0.63

0.20

Nicaragua........................................

1.34

1.31

1.47

1.29

1.10

0.24

Niger ...............................................

3.52

3.49

3.44

3.39

3.33

2.38

Nigeria ............................................

2.50

2.27

2.09

1.89

1.69

1.01

Niue ................................................

-2.80

-1.85

-1.41

-0.82

-0.05

-0.03

Northern Mariana Islands ...............

3.02

1.95

1.63

1.53

1.43

1.15

Norway ...........................................

0.66

0.62

0.60

0.59

0.58

0.27

Occupied Palestinian Territory .......

3.56

3.18

2.87

2.63

2.42

1.41

Oman ..............................................

0.86

1.97

1.95

1.81

1.58

0.72

Pakistan...........................................

1.82

1.84

1.90

1.77

1.54

0.77

Palau ...............................................

0.86

0.41

0.42

1.00

1.02

0.21

Panama ...........................................

1.82

1.65

1.46

1.30

1.16

0.43

Papua New Guinea..........................

2.41

2.00

1.75

1.62

1.52

0.77

Paraguay .........................................

1.97

1.80

1.63

1.45

1.27

0.57

Peru.................................................

1.22

1.15

1.26

1.12

0.97

0.28

Philippines ......................................

2.08

1.90

1.67

1.46

1.27

0.50

Pitcairn............................................

-2.97

0.00

0.40

1.51

-0.37

0.00

Poland .............................................

-0.12

-0.15

-0.17

-0.27

-0.40

-0.88

Portugal...........................................

0.58

0.37

0.15

-0.03

-0.15

-0.39

Puerto Rico .....................................

0.58

0.55

0.51

0.44

0.35

-0.03

Qatar ...............................................

5.11

2.11

1.76

1.49

1.16

0.47

Republic of Korea...........................

0.46

0.33

0.18

0.04

-0.08

-0.89

Réunion...........................................

1.62

1.27

1.09

0.95

0.82

0.19

Romania..........................................

-0.47

-0.45

-0.53

-0.51

-0.59

-0.97

Russian Federation..........................

-0.48

-0.51

-0.56

-0.61

-0.65

-0.72

Rwanda ...........................................

2.43

2.76

2.72

2.45

2.06

1.32

Saint Helena....................................

1.46

1.23

1.04

0.84

0.72

0.18

Saint Kitts and Nevis .....................

1.30

1.27

1.20

1.07

0.90

0.26

Saint Lucia......................................

1.09

1.12

1.05

0.91

0.75

0.19

Saint Pierre and Miquelon .............

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.00

ABLE

A.8 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Average annual rate of change

(percentage)

Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines...

0.54

0.50

0.36

0.16

-0.05

-1.16

Samoa .............................................

0.71

0.87

0.65

0.59

0.62

-0.41

San Marino .....................................

2.29

0.81

0.54

0.28

0.19

-0.20

São Tomé and Príncipe ..................

1.71

1.61

1.68

1.87

1.75

0.92

Saudi Arabia ...................................

2.53

2.24

2.05

1.84

1.62

0.74

Senegal ...........................................

2.60

2.46

2.23

2.00

1.81

1.03

Serbia..............................................

-0.54

0.13

0.09

0.02

-0.05

-0.19

Seychelles .......................................

1.06

0.49

0.32

0.63

0.52

-0.01

Sierra Leone....................................

4.23

2.04

2.27

2.23

2.18

1.50

Singapore ........................................

1.49

1.19

0.92

0.64

0.55

-0.38

Slovakia ..........................................

0.00

0.03

-0.02

-0.10

-0.22

-0.66

Slovenia ..........................................

0.16

0.01

-0.08

-0.20

-0.32

-0.67

Solomon Islands..............................

2.57

2.33

2.08

1.89

1.72

0.89

Somalia ...........................................

3.00

2.92

2.74

2.44

2.19

1.40

South Africa....................................

1.09

0.55

0.40

0.39

0.17

Spain ..............................................

1.52

0.77

0.39

0.19

0.08

-0.13

Sri Lanka.........................................

0.43

0.47

0.39

0.27

0.10

-0.55

Sudan ..............................................

2.02

2.22

2.02

1.85

1.63

0.90

Suriname.........................................

0.72

0.56

0.40

0.24

0.09

-0.94

Swaziland........................................

1.22

0.63

0.48

0.49

0.39

0.36

Sweden ...........................................

0.38

0.45

0.42

0.45

0.41

0.24

Switzerland .....................................

0.44

0.38

0.35

0.36

0.35

0.20

Syrian Arab Republic......................

2.70

2.52

1.85

1.68

1.47

0.66

Tajikistan ........................................

1.19

1.51

1.74

1.60

1.36

0.48

TFYR Macedonia ...........................

0.24

0.08

-0.04

-0.12

-0.23

-0.71

Thailand..........................................

0.76

0.66

0.50

0.36

0.24

-0.27

Timor-Leste ....................................

5.31

3.50

3.36

3.02

2.79

1.84

Togo................................................

2.88

2.65

2.44

2.21

1.99

0.99

Tokelau ...........................................

-1.59

-0.03

-0.01

0.27

-0.26

-0.03

Tonga..............................................

0.26

0.50

0.35

0.77

0.72

0.11

Trinidad and Tobago.......................

0.35

0.37

0.28

0.12

-0.43

Tunisia ............................................

1.10

1.08

0.99

0.89

0.77

0.09

Turkey.............................................

1.36

1.26

1.10

0.94

0.79

0.16

Turkmenistan ..................................

1.42

1.32

1.26

1.11

0.87

0.22

Turks and Caicos Island..................

5.19

1.37

1.06

0.86

0.73

-0.04

Tuvalu.............................................

0.50

0.42

0.41

0.49

0.51

-0.01

Uganda ...........................................

3.18

3.24

3.21

3.14

2.89

1.78

Ukraine ...........................................

-0.81

-0.76

-0.79

-0.82

-0.88

-1.11

United Arab Emirates .....................

4.69

2.85

2.13

1.85

1.64

0.93

United Kingdom .............................

0.46

0.42

0.41

0.39

0.36

0.16

United Republic of Tanzania ..........

2.56

2.47

2.36

2.12

1.93

1.03

United States of America ................

1.03

0.97

0.89

0.81

0.71

0.40

United States Virgin Islands ...........

0.16

-0.03

-0.15

-0.24

-0.40

-1.33

Uruguay ..........................................

0.05

0.29

0.34

0.37

0.30

-0.04

Uzbekistan ......................................

1.46

1.44

1.40

1.16

0.89

0.22

ABLE

A.8 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Average annual rate of change

(percentage)

Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

Vanuatu...........................................

2.54

2.38

2.18

2.00

1.83

0.99

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) ......

1.82

1.67

1.49

1.31

1.14

0.43

Viet Nam.........................................

1.45

1.32

1.20

1.05

0.90

0.21

Wallis and Futuna Islands...............

0.24

0.66

0.60

0.44

-0.17

Western Sahara ...............................

6.68

3.72

3.30

2.89

1.38

0.50

Yemen.............................................

2.97

2.90

2.71

2.43

1.52

Zambia............................................

1.88

1.91

1.84

1.86

1.70

1.07

Zimbabwe .......................................

0.72

0.95

1.06

1.01

0.91

0.66

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.9.

OUNTRIES OR AREAS WHOSE POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BETWEEN

2007

AND

2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Population (thousands)

Difference

Rank

Country or area

2007

2050

Absolute

Percentage

More developed regions

1. Bulgaria ............................................

7 639

4 949

- 2 690

-35.2

2. Ukraine.............................................

46 205

30 937

- 15 268

-33.0

3. Belarus..............................................

9 689

6 960

- 2 729

-28.2

4. Romania ...........................................

21 438

15 928

- 5 509

-25.7

5. Russian Federation ..........................

142 499

107 832

- 34 667

-24.3

6. Moldova ...........................................

3 794

2 883

-910

-24.0

7. Latvia................................................

2 277

1 768

-509

-22.4

8. Lithuania .........................................

3 390

2 654

-736

-21.7

9. Poland...............................................

38 082

30 260

- 7 822

-20.5

10. Japan.................................................

127 967

102 511

- 25 455

-19.9

11. Bosnia and Herzegovina...................

3 935

3 160

-775

-19.7

12. Croatia..............................................

4 555

3 692

-864

-19.0

13. Hungary............................................

10 030

8 459

- 1 570

-15.7

14. Estonia..............................................

1 335

1 128

-207

-15.5

15. Slovenia............................................

2 002

1 694

-308

-15.4

16. TFYR Macedonia .............................

2 038

1 746

-293

-14.4

17. Slovakia............................................

5 390

4 664

-726

-13.5

18. Czech Republic ................................

10 186

8 825

- 1 361

-13.4

19. Germany...........................................

82 599

74 088

- 8 512

-10.3

20. Italy .................................................

58 877

54 610

- 4 267

-7.2

21. Portugal ............................................

10 623

9 982

-641

-6.0

22. Channel Islands ................................

149

144

-5

-3.5

23. Greece ..............................................

11 147

10 808

-339

-3.0

24. Serbia................................................

9 858

9 635

-224

-2.3

Less developed regions

1. Guyana .............................................

738

477

-261

-35.4

2. Georgia.............................................

4 395

3 134

- 1 261

-28.7

3. United States Virgin Islands.............

111

-29

-26.3

4. Armenia............................................

3 002

2 458

-544

-18.1

5. Republic of Korea ............................

48 224

42 327

- 5 897

-12.2

6. Martinique ........................................

399

350

-48

-12.1

7. Cuba .................................................

11 268

9 911

- 1 357

-12.0

8. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.....

120

106

-14

-11.8

9. Grenada ............................................

106

-10

-9.9

10. Barbados...........................................

294

272

-22

-7.6

11. Suriname ..........................................

458

426

-32

-7.0

12. Sri Lanka ..........................................

19 299

18 715

-585

-3.0

13. Netherlands Antilles .........................

192

186

-5

-2.8

14. Trinidad and Tobago ........................

1 333

1 325

-9

-0.6

15. Aruba................................................

104

-0.3

Source

: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

(2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are considered.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.10.

ERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION IN SELECTED AGE GROUPS BY COUNTRY

2005

AND

2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

2005

2050

Country or area

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

World ...................................................

28.3

61.4

10.3

1.3

19.8

58.3

21.8

4.4

Afghanistan...........................................

47.0

49.3

3.7

0.2

33.7

60.7

5.6

0.3

Albania .................................................

26.3

61.4

12.3

1.4

16.6

55.0

28.4

6.6

Algeria ..................................................

29.6

63.9

6.5

0.6

18.2

57.5

24.3

3.4

Angola ..................................................

46.4

49.7

3.9

0.2

33.6

60.1

6.3

0.5

Argentina ..............................................

26.4

59.6

13.9

2.3

17.8

57.4

24.8

5.2

Armenia ................................................

20.8

64.6

14.5

1.6

14.2

51.9

33.9

6.8

Aruba ....................................................

22.0

66.2

11.8

1.1

16.7

56.4

26.8

7.8

Australia................................................

19.5

62.7

17.8

3.5

16.3

53.5

30.2

9.3

Austria ..................................................

15.8

62.3

21.9

4.3

14.3

50.4

35.3

11.9

Azerbaijan.............................................

25.3

65.4

9.3

0.8

16.4

56.0

27.6

5.4

Bahamas................................................

27.6

63.1

9.3

1.2

17.3

56.4

26.3

6.2

Bahrain .................................................

26.3

69.3

4.5

0.4

16.3

59.5

24.3

4.9

Bangladesh............................................

35.2

59.1

5.7

0.4

20.8

62.2

17.0

1.9

Barbados ...............................................

18.9

68.6

12.6

2.2

14.2

49.3

36.5

10.7

Belarus..................................................

15.7

66.2

18.1

2.3

12.7

51.5

35.8

6.7

Belgium ................................................

17.0

60.9

22.1

4.3

15.0

51.8

33.2

10.7

Belize....................................................

37.6

56.6

5.8

0.9

19.3

61.6

19.1

3.2

Benin.....................................................

44.2

51.5

4.3

0.3

27.9

62.4

9.7

0.8

Bhutan...................................................

33.0

60.1

6.9

0.5

17.9

58.8

23.3

2.7

Bolivia ..................................................

38.1

55.2

6.7

0.6

20.0

62.5

17.5

2.8

Bosnia and Herzegovina .......................

17.6

63.3

19.1

1.2

11.8

50.7

37.5

8.6

Botswana ..............................................

35.6

59.3

5.1

0.4

23.3

64.4

12.2

1.1

Brazil ....................................................

27.8

63.3

8.8

1.2

17.7

57.1

25.2

5.6

Brunei Darussalam................................

29.6

65.7

4.7

0.4

18.6

61.3

20.1

3.4

Bulgaria ................................................

13.8

63.3

22.9

3.2

12.4

47.3

40.2

8.6

Burkina Faso.........................................

46.2

49.4

4.5

0.7

30.0

61.9

8.1

0.8

Burundi .................................................

45.1

50.8

4.0

0.3

37.8

56.1

6.0

0.5

Cambodia..............................................

37.6

57.3

5.1

0.3

22.1

62.7

15.2

1.5

Cameroon..............................................

41.8

52.8

5.4

0.5

25.5

63.5

11.0

1.0

Canada ..................................................

17.6

64.5

17.8

3.5

15.6

52.5

31.9

10.0

Cape Verde ...........................................

39.5

54.9

5.5

0.5

22.5

61.2

16.4

2.1

Central African Republic ......................

42.7

51.5

5.8

0.5

28.1

63.3

8.6

0.8

Chad......................................................

46.2

49.1

4.6

0.3

31.9

61.2

6.9

0.5

Channel Islands.....................................

16.4

63.9

19.7

3.6

13.5

50.3

36.2

12.0

Chile .....................................................

24.9

63.5

11.6

1.7

16.5

54.8

28.7

7.6

China.....................................................

21.6

67.4

11.0

1.2

15.3

53.6

31.1

7.3

China, Hong Kong SAR .......................

15.1

69.5

15.4

2.8

11.2

49.4

39.4

13.5

China, Macao SAR ...............................

16.1

73.5

10.3

1.8

9.9

47.3

42.8

14.1

Colombia ..............................................

30.3

62.1

7.5

1.0

17.6

57.7

24.6

5.4

Comoros................................................

42.0

53.7

4.3

0.3

24.8

62.8

12.4

1.2

Congo ...................................................

41.9

53.1

5.0

0.4

26.7

63.5

9.7

0.8

Costa Rica.............................................

28.4

63.4

8.3

1.3

16.9

56.6

26.5

6.0

Côte d'Ivoire .........................................

41.7

53.2

5.1

0.3

25.4

63.9

10.8

0.8

ABLE

A.10 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

2005

2050

Country or area

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Croatia ..................................................

15.5

62.4

22.1

2.9

14.4

50.0

35.5

9.0

Cuba......................................................

19.2

65.1

15.7

2.8

12.1

48.5

39.3

12.4

Cyprus...................................................

19.9

63.3

16.9

2.7

16.0

54.4

29.7

7.3

Czech Republic.....................................

14.8

65.3

19.9

3.1

12.7

48.6

38.6

9.0

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ................

24.2

62.5

13.3

0.9

16.6

58.8

24.6

4.1

Dem. Republic of the Congo ................

47.2

48.7

4.2

0.3

34.4

59.9

5.7

0.4

Denmark ...............................................

18.8

60.0

21.2

4.1

16.0

54.6

29.4

9.2

Djibouti.................................................

38.5

56.6

4.9

0.3

23.3

63.5

13.2

1.1

Dominican Republic .............................

33.5

58.5

8.0

1.1

20.1

59.8

20.1

4.4

Ecuador.................................................

32.6

59.0

8.4

1.2

18.4

58.6

23.0

5.1

Egypt.....................................................

33.3

59.5

7.2

0.6

20.5

60.2

19.3

2.5

El Salvador ...........................................

34.1

58.1

7.8

1.0

19.2

59.6

21.2

3.8

Equatorial Guinea .................................

42.4

51.4

6.2

0.5

29.9

61.6

8.5

0.8

Eritrea ...................................................

43.0

53.0

4.0

0.3

27.7

62.6

9.7

0.6

Estonia ..................................................

15.2

63.2

21.6

3.2

15.9

50.9

33.2

7.2

Ethiopia.................................................

44.5

50.9

4.6

0.3

27.7

62.8

9.5

0.9

Fiji.........................................................

32.9

60.2

6.9

0.4

19.1

61.3

19.6

2.9

Finland..................................................

17.4

61.3

21.4

4.0

16.0

52.5

31.5

10.0

France ...................................................

18.4

60.8

20.8

4.6

16.0

52.2

31.8

10.2

French Guiana.......................................

35.2

58.5

6.3

0.6

21.2

61.4

17.4

3.7

French Polynesia...................................

27.4

64.5

8.1

0.8

17.8

57.4

24.7

5.0

Gabon ...................................................

35.9

57.4

6.7

0.9

22.1

62.6

15.2

1.9

Gambia .................................................

41.2

53.0

5.8

0.5

25.7

62.7

11.7

1.6

Georgia .................................................

18.9

63.2

17.9

2.1

13.5

51.6

34.9

7.4

Germany ...............................................

14.4

60.6

25.1

4.4

13.7

49.4

37.0

13.1

Ghana....................................................

39.0

55.4

5.6

0.4

23.5

62.5

14.0

1.5

Greece...................................................

14.3

62.5

23.3

3.5

13.3

48.6

38.1

11.1

Grenada.................................................

34.2

56.1

9.8

1.3

18.0

59.9

22.1

3.5

Guadeloupe...........................................

24.0

62.0

14.0

2.6

16.1

51.1

32.9

10.5

Guam ....................................................

29.4

61.2

9.5

1.0

18.2

59.4

22.3

5.1

Guatemala ............................................

43.1

50.7

6.1

0.7

22.6

64.1

13.3

2.0

Guinea...................................................

43.4

51.6

5.0

0.3

28.0

62.3

9.8

0.9

Guinea-Bissau.......................................

47.4

47.9

4.7

0.3

36.1

58.6

5.2

0.4

Guyana..................................................

31.1

60.7

8.2

1.0

14.1

59.3

26.6

7.6

Haiti ......................................................

38.0

55.8

6.3

0.5

22.6

61.1

16.3

2.3

Honduras...............................................

40.0

54.2

5.8

0.8

19.8

63.0

17.2

2.8

Hungary ................................................

15.8

63.4

20.8

3.2

14.3

51.3

34.4

7.2

Iceland ..................................................

22.1

62.1

15.8

3.0

15.9

52.8

31.3

9.6

India......................................................

33.0

59.6

7.5

0.7

18.2

61.6

20.2

3.1

Indonesia...............................................

28.4

63.3

8.3

0.6

17.5

57.7

24.8

4.0

Iran (Islamic Republic of).....................

28.8

64.9

6.4

0.6

17.7

56.6

25.6

2.9

Iraq........................................................

41.5

54.0

4.6

0.3

24.3

62.9

12.8

1.3

Ireland ..................................................

20.7

63.9

15.3

2.7

16.8

53.9

29.3

6.7

Israel .....................................................

27.9

58.9

13.2

2.5

18.4

57.0

24.5

6.2

Italy.......................................................

14.0

60.7

25.3

5.1

13.3

48.1

38.6

13.3

Jamaica .................................................

31.7

58.2

10.1

1.9

19.0

58.6

22.4

5.3

Japan .....................................................

13.9

59.7

26.4

4.8

11.3

44.8

44.0

15.5

ABLE

A.10 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

2005

2050

Country or area

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Jordan ...................................................

37.2

57.7

5.1

0.4

19.3

61.6

19.0

2.8

Kazakhstan............................................

24.2

65.4

10.4

1.1

18.6

57.4

24.1

4.1

Kenya....................................................

42.6

53.4

3.9

0.4

28.7

61.9

9.5

0.8

Kuwait ..................................................

23.8

73.1

3.1

0.2

17.0

58.1

24.9

4.4

Kyrgyzstan............................................

31.0

61.6

7.3

0.7

18.5

60.0

21.5

3.0

Lao People's Dem. Republic .................

39.8

55.0

5.2

0.4

19.9

63.8

16.3

1.7

Latvia....................................................

14.4

63.2

22.4

3.2

13.6

49.1

37.3

8.3

Lebanon ................................................

28.6

61.1

10.2

1.0

17.8

58.5

23.7

4.0

Lesotho .................................................

40.4

52.9

6.7

0.7

27.9

62.8

9.3

0.9

Liberia...................................................

46.9

49.5

3.6

0.2

36.6

58.4

5.0

0.3

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya........................

30.3

63.7

6.0

0.5

18.9

57.8

23.3

3.5

Lithuania...............................................

16.8

62.9

20.3

3.0

13.0

50.8

36.2

8.9

Luxembourg..........................................

18.5

62.8

18.7

3.2

17.5

57.6

24.9

6.9

Madagascar...........................................

43.8

51.3

4.9

0.4

27.0

62.8

10.2

1.0

Malawi..................................................

47.1

48.3

4.6

0.3

31.3

62.1

6.5

0.7

Malaysia................................................

31.4

61.9

6.7

0.6

18.3

59.5

22.2

4.0

Maldives ...............................................

34.0

60.4

5.6

0.5

19.7

60.2

20.0

2.1

Mali.......................................................

47.7

47.2

5.0

0.8

31.5

61.2

7.3

0.8

Malta.....................................................

17.4

64.2

18.4

2.9

13.8

50.9

35.3

8.9

Martinique ............................................

21.5

61.7

16.9

3.3

12.6

47.0

40.4

14.6

Mauritania.............................................

40.3

54.4

5.3

0.6

23.9

62.5

13.5

1.6

Mauritius...............................................

24.4

66.0

9.6

1.3

16.9

56.6

26.5

5.8

Mexico..................................................

30.8

60.8

8.4

1.2

16.7

56.1

27.3

6.0

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...................

38.6

56.1

5.4

0.8

20.2

64.5

15.3

1.7

Moldova................................................

20.0

65.1

14.9

1.6

14.8

53.0

32.1

5.2

Mongolia...............................................

28.9

65.2

5.9

0.7

17.3

57.6

25.1

3.6

Montenegro...........................................

19.6

62.6

17.8

2.3

16.6

54.2

29.2

7.0

Morocco................................................

30.3

62.2

7.5

0.6

18.6

58.4

22.9

3.3

Mozambique .........................................

44.2

50.8

5.0

0.4

30.3

62.9

6.8

0.7

Myanmar...............................................

27.3

64.8

8.0

1.0

17.1

57.4

25.6

4.2

Namibia ................................................

39.1

55.7

5.2

0.5

24.8

64.2

11.0

1.3

Nepal.....................................................

39.0

55.3

5.8

0.4

23.1

63.0

14.0

1.4

Netherlands...........................................

18.4

62.3

19.3

3.6

16.0

53.3

30.7

10.4

Netherlands Antilles .............................

22.5

63.5

14.0

2.2

13.8

46.4

39.8

10.2

New Caledonia......................................

27.1

63.0

9.9

1.2

17.2

56.8

26.0

6.0

New Zealand.........................................

21.5

62.0

16.6

3.2

16.1

53.7

30.2

9.2

Nicaragua..............................................

37.9

56.4

5.7

0.8

19.6

60.2

20.2

3.5

Niger .....................................................

48.0

47.3

4.8

0.6

37.3

56.4

6.3

0.8

Nigeria ..................................................

44.3

51.0

4.6

0.3

27.3

63.5

9.2

0.8

Norway .................................................

19.6

60.6

19.7

4.6

16.2

54.2

29.6

9.0

Occupied Palestinian Territory .............

45.9

49.7

4.5

0.5

26.6

62.6

10.8

1.4

Oman ....................................................

33.8

62.0

4.3

0.3

19.4

60.1

20.4

3.0

Pakistan.................................................

37.2

56.9

5.9

0.5

21.8

61.7

16.5

2.0

Panama .................................................

30.4

60.9

8.8

1.2

18.5

58.7

22.8

5.0

Papua New Guinea................................

40.6

55.5

3.9

0.2

23.8

65.0

11.2

1.1

Paraguay ...............................................

35.8

57.2

7.0

0.9

20.7

61.0

18.3

3.1

Peru.......................................................

31.8

60.2

8.1

0.9

18.5

59.3

22.2

4.1

ABLE

A.10 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

2005

2050

Country or area

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Philippines ............................................

36.2

57.9

6.0

0.5

19.7

62.2

18.2

2.6

Poland ...................................................

16.3

66.5

17.2

2.7

12.2

48.2

39.6

8.9

Portugal.................................................

15.7

62.3

22.1

3.7

14.3

48.8

36.9

10.1

Puerto Rico ...........................................

21.9

60.8

17.3

3.0

16.1

53.8

30.0

8.1

Qatar .....................................................

21.7

75.5

2.7

0.1

15.4

62.1

22.5

3.3

Republic of Korea.................................

18.6

67.6

13.7

1.4

10.4

47.4

42.2

12.7

Réunion.................................................

26.8

63.2

10.0

1.2

17.9

57.6

24.5

5.9

Romania................................................

15.7

65.1

19.3

2.4

12.5

48.3

39.1

8.1

Russian Federation................................

15.1

67.8

17.1

2.1

15.0

52.6

32.4

5.8

Rwanda .................................................

43.5

52.9

3.7

0.3

29.8

61.3

8.9

0.6

Saint Lucia............................................

27.9

62.3

9.7

1.9

18.1

57.2

24.6

4.5

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.........

29.3

61.8

8.9

1.1

16.9

51.7

31.4

4.8

Samoa ...................................................

40.8

52.7

6.5

0.8

20.7

61.9

17.4

3.6

São Tomé and Príncipe .........................

41.6

52.6

5.8

0.6

23.5

63.1

13.3

1.1

Saudi Arabia .........................................

34.5

61.3

4.2

0.4

19.4

62.6

18.0

2.6

Senegal .................................................

42.2

51.6

6.2

0.8

25.1

62.7

12.1

1.4

Serbia....................................................

18.5

62.5

18.9

2.4

16.5

54.2

29.3

6.0

Sierra Leone..........................................

42.8

51.8

5.5

0.2

32.3

60.7

6.9

0.4

Singapore ..............................................

19.5

68.2

12.3

1.5

11.1

49.0

39.8

14.8

Slovakia ................................................

16.8

67.1

16.1

2.4

12.6

49.8

37.6

7.9

Slovenia ................................................

14.1

65.3

20.5

3.1

12.3

47.2

40.5

11.6

Solomon Islands....................................

40.5

54.8

4.7

0.3

23.4

63.6

13.0

1.0

Somalia .................................................

44.1

51.7

4.2

0.3

30.1

61.6

8.3

0.7

South Africa..........................................

32.1

61.1

6.7

0.5

22.3

63.8

13.8

2.2

Spain .....................................................

14.4

63.9

21.7

4.3

14.3

46.7

39.0

12.2

Sri Lanka...............................................

24.2

66.1

9.7

1.1

16.7

54.3

29.0

6.0

Sudan ....................................................

40.7

53.8

5.5

0.4

24.4

63.0

12.6

1.3

Suriname...............................................

29.8

61.3

8.9

0.7

16.4

55.0

28.6

5.4

Swaziland..............................................

39.8

55.3

5.0

0.4

28.7

64.6

6.7

0.8

Sweden .................................................

17.4

59.2

23.4

5.3

16.4

53.3

30.3

9.3

Switzerland ...........................................

16.7

62.2

21.1

4.3

15.8

53.5

30.7

11.0

Syrian Arab Republic............................

36.6

58.7

4.7

0.4

19.5

60.7

19.8

2.5

Tajikistan ..............................................

39.4

55.5

5.1

0.5

20.1

63.7

16.1

2.2

TFYR Macedonia .................................

19.7

64.7

15.5

1.7

13.3

51.9

34.8

7.2

Thailand................................................

21.7

67.0

11.3

1.3

15.8

54.4

29.8

7.0

Timor-Leste ..........................................

45.0

50.4

4.6

0.2

31.4

61.0

7.6

0.7

Togo......................................................

43.3

51.9

4.8

0.3

24.3

64.4

11.2

1.0

Tonga....................................................

37.5

53.5

9.0

0.8

22.9

61.6

15.6

2.4

Trinidad and Tobago.............................

22.2

68.3

9.5

1.2

16.8

52.2

31.0

5.8

Tunisia ..................................................

26.0

65.3

8.7

0.8

16.6

55.3

28.1

4.6

Turkey...................................................

28.3

63.5

8.2

0.6

17.5

58.0

24.5

3.8

Turkmenistan ........................................

31.8

62.0

6.2

0.6

18.4

60.4

21.2

2.9

Uganda..................................................

49.4

46.8

3.8

0.3

33.4

60.7

6.0

0.5

Ukraine .................................................

14.7

64.7

20.6

2.6

12.8

50.6

36.6

7.1

United Arab Emirates ...........................

19.8

78.3

1.8

0.2

14.3

61.8

24.0

2.9

United Kingdom ...................................

18.0

60.8

21.2

4.5

16.2

53.6

30.1

9.2

United Republic of Tanzania ................

44.4

51.0

4.6

0.3

26.8

64.0

9.1

0.9

ABLE

A.10 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

2005

2050

Country or area

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

United States of America ......................

20.8

62.6

16.6

3.5

17.3

56.0

26.8

7.6

United States Virgin Islands .................

24.1

59.3

16.6

2.0

14.9

52.4

32.7

12.0

Uruguay ................................................

23.8

58.3

17.8

3.2

16.8

55.8

27.4

6.8

Uzbekistan ............................................

33.2

60.6

6.2

0.7

18.3

60.8

20.9

3.0

Vanuatu.................................................

39.8

55.2

5.0

0.5

23.0

62.4

14.6

1.8

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) ............

31.3

61.2

7.5

0.8

18.6

59.3

22.1

4.4

Viet Nam...............................................

29.6

62.8

7.6

1.0

17.2

56.7

26.1

4.8

Western Sahara .....................................

31.4

65.0

3.6

0.3

18.9

59.2

21.8

2.4

Yemen...................................................

45.9

50.4

3.7

0.3

28.2

62.4

9.4

0.7

Zambia..................................................

45.7

49.8

4.5

0.4

30.7

62.9

6.5

0.6

Zimbabwe .............................................

39.5

55.3

5.2

0.5

24.8

63.7

11.5

1.0

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

ABLE

A.11.

COUNTRIES

OR AREAS W

ITH THE OLDEST AND

N COUNTRIES W

ITH THE

UNGES

PULATIONS

50,

1975,

2005

AND

2050

(

MEDIUM VARIAN

)

1950

1975

2005

2050

ank

Cou

ry or

Med

ian

ank

Cou

ry or

Med

ian

ank

Cou

ry or

Med

ian

ank

Cou

ry or

Med

ian

. Oldest populati

Austria

35.

Ger

any

35.

Japan

42.

China, Macao S

55.

Channel I

slands

35.

Sweden

35.

Ger

any

42.

Japan

54.

Belgiu

35.

uxem

bour

34.

Italy

42.

Republic of Kor

54.

Ger

any

35.

Latvia

34.

Finland

40.

Singapor

53.

uxem

bour

35.

Channel I

slands

34.

Bulgaria

40.

Martinique

53.

United Kingdo

34.

Hungar

34.

Croatia

40.

Poland

52.

France

34.

stonia

34.

Belgiu

40.

Bulgaria

52.

Sweden

34.

Belgiu

34.

Sweden

40.

Slovenia

52.

Switzerl

and

33.

Bulgaria

34.

Slovenia

40.

China,

Hong Kong

SAR

52.

10.

Norway

32.

10.

United Kingdo

33.

10.

Switzerl

and

40.

10.

Cuba

52.

. Youngest po

pul

ation

Niger

15.

14.

Uganda

15.

Bur

undi

20.

Saint Vincent and

the Grenadines

15.

Kenya

15.

Mali

16.

Niger

21.

onga

15.

Niger

15.

Niger

16.

Lib

eria

21.

Dem

. People's Rep

. of Kor

15.

Rwanda

15.

Guinea-Bissau

16.

Guinea-Bissau

21.

Grenada

16.

bab

15.

Dem

. Republic of the Congo

16.

Dem

. Republic of the Congo

22.

Par

aguay

16.

Syrian Arab

Repu

blic

15.

Malawi

16.

Afghanistan

23.

Djibouti

16.

Swaziland

15.

Afghanistan

16.

Angola

23.

16.

Surina

16.

Lib

eria

16.

Uganda

23.

inican Republic

16.

Saint Vincent and

the Grenadines

16.

Angola

16.

Sierra

Leo

24.

10.

Fiji

16.

10.

Iraq

16.

10.

16.

10.

Chad

24.

WOR

23.

WOR

22.

WOR

28.

WOR

38.

Source:

Populatio

n Division of the

Depar

ent

of E

cono

ic and Social

Affair

s of

the United Nations Secr

etar

iat (

2007)

ld Population

ospe

cts:

he 2006 Revision,

Highlights.

New York: United

Nations

OTE

: Only

countries or

areas with 1

00,

000 per

ns or

e in 2007 ar

consider

ed.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.12.

EDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION BY COUNTRY

1950,

2005

AND

2050

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Median age

Country or area

1950

2005

2050

World ......................................................

23.9

28.0

38.1

Afghanistan..............................................

18.6

16.4

23.0

Albania.....................................................

20.6

28.6

43.1

Algeria .....................................................

19.9

24.0

39.4

Angola .....................................................

19.4

16.6

23.2

Argentina .................................................

25.7

28.9

40.3

Armenia ...................................................

22.4

31.7

48.6

Aruba .......................................................

18.5

35.5

42.8

Australia...................................................

30.4

36.7

43.4

Austria ....................................................

35.8

40.1

48.0

Azerbaijan................................................

22.8

27.7

42.5

Bahamas...................................................

20.7

28.0

41.7

Bahrain.....................................................

18.9

28.8

40.9

Bangladesh...............................................

20.0

22.2

35.1

Barbados ..................................................

24.6

35.5

49.3

Belarus .....................................................

27.2

37.4

49.6

Belgium ...................................................

35.5

40.3

46.2

Belize.......................................................

20.8

20.9

37.1

Benin........................................................

23.7

17.7

27.7

Bhutan......................................................

18.0

22.3

39.9

Bolivia .....................................................

19.2

20.8

35.9

Bosnia and Herzegovina ..........................

20.0

37.1

51.5

Botswana .................................................

19.5

21.1

31.5

Brazil .......................................................

19.2

26.9

40.4

Brunei Darussalam...................................

22.4

26.2

37.4

Bulgaria ...................................................

27.3

40.8

52.3

Burkina Faso............................................

19.8

16.8

25.7

Burundi ....................................................

19.5

17.0

20.8

Cambodia.................................................

18.7

20.1

33.6

Cameroon.................................................

20.3

18.7

29.6

Canada .....................................................

27.7

38.6

45.3

Cape Verde ..............................................

21.4

19.3

33.7

Central African Republic .........................

22.6

18.3

27.1

Chad.........................................................

21.5

16.8

24.3

Channel Islands........................................

35.7

40.0

49.4

Chile ........................................................

22.2

30.6

43.1

China........................................................

23.9

32.5

45.0

China, Hong Kong SAR ..........................

23.7

38.9

52.1

China, Macao SAR ..................................

25.3

36.5

55.5

Colombia .................................................

18.7

25.6

40.6

Comoros...................................................

18.2

18.7

30.7

Congo.......................................................

20.0

18.8

28.5

Costa Rica................................................

21.6

26.1

41.8

Côte d'Ivoire ............................................

18.3

18.5

29.6

ABLE

A.12 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Median age

Country or area

1950

2005

2050

Croatia .....................................................

27.9

40.6

48.7

Cuba.........................................................

22.3

35.6

52.1

Cyprus......................................................

23.7

35.3

44.0

Czech Republic........................................

32.7

38.9

51.1

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ...................

15.9

32.1

41.9

Dem. Republic of the Congo....................

18.1

16.3

22.5

Denmark ..................................................

31.8

39.5

43.8

Djibouti....................................................

16.5

20.1

31.9

Dominican Republic ................................

16.6

23.9

36.2

Ecuador....................................................

20.6

24.0

39.1

Egypt .......................................................

20.0

22.9

36.1

El Salvador...............................................

18.3

23.4

37.6

Equatorial Guinea ....................................

23.8

18.7

26.0

Eritrea ......................................................

17.3

18.1

28.2

Estonia .....................................................

29.9

38.9

45.2

Ethiopia....................................................

17.9

17.5

27.8

Fiji............................................................

16.6

23.7

37.5

Finland .....................................................

27.7

40.9

44.4

France ......................................................

34.5

38.9

44.7

French Guiana..........................................

26.6

23.6

34.8

French Polynesia......................................

17.8

27.1

40.2

Gabon.......................................................

28.4

21.5

33.1

Gambia.....................................................

19.5

29.6

Georgia ....................................................

27.3

35.5

49.5

Germany ..................................................

35.4

42.1

49.4

Ghana.......................................................

17.4

19.9

31.9

Greece......................................................

26.0

40.1

50.1

Grenada....................................................

16.3

22.2

39.2

Guadeloupe..............................................

20.9

34.0

46.7

Guam .......................................................

22.8

28.4

38.9

Guatemala................................................

17.5

18.2

32.0

Guinea......................................................

21.2

18.1

27.6

Guinea-Bissau..........................................

21.7

16.2

21.5

Guyana.....................................................

19.8

26.0

46.7

Haiti ........................................................

20.2

20.3

33.3

Honduras..................................................

18.8

19.4

35.6

Hungary ...................................................

29.9

38.7

48.1

Iceland .....................................................

26.5

34.2

44.6

India.........................................................

21.3

23.8

38.6

Indonesia..................................................

20.0

26.5

41.1

Iran (Islamic Republic of)........................

21.1

23.4

40.6

Iraq...........................................................

20.1

18.9

31.1

Ireland......................................................

29.6

33.4

43.0

Israel ........................................................

25.5

28.8

39.4

Italy..........................................................

29.0

42.0

50.4

Jamaica ....................................................

22.2

24.7

38.2

Japan ........................................................

22.3

42.9

54.9

ABLE

A.12 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Median age

Country or area

1950

2005

2050

Jordan.......................................................

17.2

21.1

37.0

Kazakhstan...............................................

23.2

28.8

39.3

Kenya.......................................................

20.0

18.1

27.0

Kuwait .....................................................

21.5

29.2

40.1

Kyrgyzstan...............................................

25.3

23.9

38.8

Lao People's Dem. Republic ....................

20.3

19.2

35.5

Latvia.......................................................

30.5

39.3

49.3

Lebanon ...................................................

23.2

27.1

40.2

Lesotho ....................................................

19.8

18.8

26.7

Liberia......................................................

19.2

16.4

21.2

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya...........................

19.0

24.1

39.2

Lithuania..................................................

27.8

37.9

50.3

Luxembourg.............................................

35.0

38.3

40.4

Madagascar..............................................

19.0

17.9

28.4

Malawi ....................................................

17.1

16.4

24.4

Malaysia...................................................

19.8

24.7

39.3

Maldives ..................................................

24.7

21.3

36.8

Mali..........................................................

20.2

16.0

24.6

Malta........................................................

23.7

37.6

48.8

Martinique ...............................................

21.9

36.4

53.0

Mauritania................................................

20.5

19.6

31.6

Mauritius..................................................

17.3

30.5

42.1

Mexico .....................................................

18.7

25.6

43.1

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ......................

19.8

19.7

34.6

Moldova...................................................

26.6

32.5

46.9

Mongolia..................................................

19.0

24.2

40.9

Montenegro..............................................

21.3

35.1

42.8

Morocco...................................................

17.7

24.3

38.8

Mozambique ............................................

19.1

17.7

25.0

Myanmar..................................................

22.9

26.8

41.5

Namibia ...................................................

20.9

19.5

29.7

Nepal........................................................

21.1

20.1

32.5

Netherlands ..............................................

28.0

39.1

44.2

Netherlands Antilles ................................

23.3

36.4

51.8

New Caledonia.........................................

22.5

28.8

41.7

New Zealand............................................

29.4

35.5

44.1

Nicaragua.................................................

17.7

20.3

37.2

Niger ........................................................

15.2

16.0

21.1

Nigeria .....................................................

19.1

17.6

28.0

Norway ....................................................

32.7

38.0

43.7

Occupied Palestinian Territory ................

17.2

16.9

28.9

Oman .......................................................

18.8

22.5

37.2

Pakistan....................................................

21.2

20.3

34.1

Panama.....................................................

20.2

26.1

38.6

Papua New Guinea...................................

20.3

19.5

30.9

Paraguay ..................................................

16.5

21.7

35.6

Peru..........................................................

19.1

24.3

38.6

ABLE

A.12 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Median age

Country or area

1950

2005

2050

Philippines ..............................................

18.2

21.8

36.3

Poland ......................................................

25.8

36.8

52.4

Portugal....................................................

26.2

39.1

48.8

Puerto Rico ..............................................

18.4

33.8

43.9

Qatar ........................................................

18.9

31.1

41.9

Republic of Korea....................................

19.1

35.0

54.9

Réunion....................................................

20.3

29.7

40.0

Romania...................................................

26.1

36.7

51.4

Russian Federation...................................

25.0

37.3

45.3

Rwanda ....................................................

16.7

17.4

26.6

Saint Lucia...............................................

20.7

26.1

40.0

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines............

15.4

24.5

44.4

Samoa ......................................................

16.6

19.3

35.6

São Tomé and Príncipe ............................

24.5

18.7

31.9

Saudi Arabia ............................................

19.0

23.3

36.0

Senegal.....................................................

19.2

18.5

30.3

Serbia.......................................................

25.8

36.6

43.0

Sierra Leone.............................................

20.4

18.5

24.0

Singapore .................................................

20.0

37.5

53.7

Slovakia ..................................................

27.3

35.6

51.0

Slovenia ...................................................

27.7

40.2

52.2

Solomon Islands.......................................

18.3

19.4

31.9

Somalia ....................................................

19.5

17.9

25.7

South Africa.............................................

20.9

23.9

32.0

Spain ........................................................

27.7

38.8

49.5

Sri Lanka..................................................

19.5

29.5

43.4

Sudan .......................................................

18.1

19.4

30.9

Suriname..................................................

20.1

25.4

44.1

Swaziland.................................................

18.4

18.9

26.0

Sweden.....................................................

34.3

40.2

43.3

Switzerland ..............................................

33.3

40.1

44.2

Syrian Arab Republic...............................

19.4

20.6

37.1

Tajikistan .................................................

22.3

19.2

35.1

TFYR Macedonia ....................................

22.3

34.3

49.4

Thailand ...................................................

18.6

32.6

44.3

Timor-Leste .............................................

19.6

17.3

24.9

Togo.........................................................

19.4

18.1

30.2

Tonga.......................................................

15.5

20.6

32.5

Trinidad and Tobago................................

20.7

28.6

43.2

Tunisia .....................................................

20.9

26.7

42.5

Turkey......................................................

19.4

26.7

40.7

Turkmenistan ...........................................

23.5

23.3

38.8

Uganda.....................................................

18.2

15.3

23.3

Ukraine ....................................................

27.6

38.9

50.0

United Arab Emirates ..............................

18.9

29.4

40.3

United Kingdom ......................................

34.6

38.9

43.4

United Republic of Tanzania ...................

16.9

17.5

27.8

ABLE

A.12 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Median age

Country or area

1950

2005

2050

United States of America .........................

30.0

36.0

41.1

United States Virgin Islands ....................

22.0

35.0

47.0

Uruguay ...................................................

27.8

32.6

42.5

Uzbekistan ..............................................

24.1

22.6

38.9

Vanuatu

16.8

19.6

32.7

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) ...............

18.3

24.6

38.3

Viet Nam..................................................

24.6

24.9

41.6

Western Sahara ........................................

18.7

24.2

37.6

Yemen......................................................

18.9

16.7

27.7

Zambia .....................................................

17.5

16.9

24.8

Zimbabwe ................................................

19.0

29.9

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of

the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision,
Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

ABLE

A.13.

EN COUNTRIES OR

AREAS

ITH

THE

HIGHEST A

ND T

OUNTRIES

OR AREAS W

ITH THE LO

RTILITY

1970-1975,

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

(

MEDIUM VARIAN

)

1970-

1975

2005-

2010

2045-

2050

ank

Country or area

Total fertility

hildren per

woman)

ank

Country or area

Total fertility

hildren per

woman)

ank

Country or area

Total fertility

hildren per

woman)

A. High

est

ferti

1. Yemen

8.70

1. Nige

7.19

Niger

3.78

2. Rwanda

8.29

2. Guinea-Bi

ssau

7.07

Burundi

3.48

3. Niger

8.12

3. Afghanist

an 7.07

Liberia

3.33

4. Ken

8.00

4. Burundi

6.80

Guinea-Bissau

3.24

5. Jordan

7.79

5. Liberia

6.77

Afghanistan

3.14

6. Burkina

Faso

7.75

Dem. Republic o

f the Congo

Sierra

Leon

3.06

7. Occupied

Palestinian

Territor

y 7.73

Timor-Leste

6.53

Dem. Republic o

f the Congo

2.98

8. Afghanistan

7.70

Mali 6.52

Angola

2.98

Lib

yan

Arab Jamahiriy

7.59

Sierra

Leon

6.47

Chad

2.83

10. Mali

7.56

10. Uga

nda 6.46

10.

Mali

2.81

Lowe

st fe

rtility

1. Finland

1.62

1. China,

Macao

0.91

China, Macao S

1.31

German

1.64

China, Hong Ko

SAR

0.97

China, Hong Ko

ng SAR

1.34

3. Luxembourg

1.72

3. Belarus

1.20

Republic of Kor

1.54

4. Switzerland

1.82

4. Republic

of Kor

1.21

Belarus

1.58

5. Channel

Islands

1.86

5. Uk

raine

1.22

Ukraine

1.59

6. Sweden

1.89

6. Po

land 1.23

Japan

1.60

7. Croatia

1.96

7. Bosnia

d Herzegovina

1.23

Poland

1.60

8. Denm

ark

1.97

8. Czech

Republ

1.24

Bosnia and

Herz

egovina

1.61

9. Canada

1.98

9. Slova

kia 1.25

Slovakia

1.63

10. Latvia

2.00

10. Singapor

1.26

10.

Singapore

1.64

WORLD

4.47

WORLD

2.55

WORLD

2.02

Source:

Populatio

n Division of the

Depar

ent

of E

cono

ic and Social

Affair

s of

the United Nations Secr

etar

iat (

2007)

Population Pr

ospe

cts: T

he 2006

Revision,

Highlights.

New Yor

United Nations.

OTE

: Only

countries or

areas with 1

00,

000 per

ns or

e in 2007 ar

consider

ed.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.14.

HE TWELVE COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE LARGEST AND THE TWELVE COUNTRIES OR

AREAS WITH THE SMALLEST TOTAL FERTILITY CHANGE BETWEEN

1970-1975

AND

2005-2010

Total fertility

(children per woman)

Change from 1970-1975 to

2005-2010

Rank

Country or area

1970-1975 2005-2010 Difference Percentage

A. Largest fertility change

1. Mongolia

7.33

1.87

-5.46

-74.5

2. Republic of Korea

4.28

1.21

-3.07

-71.7

3. China, Macao SAR

3.20

0.91

-2.29

-71.7

4. Tunisia

6.21

1.93

-4.28

-68.9

5. Kuwait

6.90

2.18

-4.72

-68.4

6. Iran (Islamic Republic of)

6.40

2.04

-4.36

-68.1

7. Viet

Nam

6.70

2.14

-4.56

-68.1

8. Algeria

7.38

2.38

-5.00

-67.7

9. Bhutan

6.67

2.19

-4.48

-67.1

10. China, Hong Kong SAR

2.89

0.97

-1.92

-66.6

11. Mexico

6.50

2.21

-4.29

-66.0

12. Morocco

6.89

2.38

-4.51

-65.5

B. Smallest fertility change

1. Burundi

6.80

0.00

0.0

2. Sierra Leone

6.50

6.47

-0.03

-0.4

3. Guinea-Bissau

7.10

7.07

-0.03

-0.4

4. Liberia

6.90

6.77

-0.13

-1.8

5. United States of America

2.02

2.05

0.04

1.9

6. Luxembourg

1.72

1.66

-0.06

-3.6

7. Dem. Republic of the Congo

6.45

6.70

0.25

3.9

8. Sweden

1.89

1.80

-0.10

-5.1

9. Equatorial Guinea

5.68

5.36

-0.32

-5.7

10. Timor-Leste

6.15

6.53

0.38

6.1

11. Chad

6.60

6.20

-0.40

-6.1

12. Afghanistan

7.70

7.07

-0.63

-8.2

Source

: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are considered.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.15.

OTAL FERTILITY BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS

(

MEDIUM VARIANT

)

Total fertility (children per woman)

Country or area

1970-1975 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

World.......................................... 4.47 2.65 2.55 2.46 2.37 2.29 2.02

Afghanistan .................................

7.70 7.48 7.07 6.67 6.24 5.75 3.14

Albania ........................................  4.66 2.25 2.06 1.91 1.85 1.85 1.85
Algeria.........................................  7.38 2.53 2.38 2.26 2.16 2.07 1.85
Angola .........................................

7.20 6.75 6.43 6.04 5.61 5.14 2.98

Argentina ....................................

3.15 2.35 2.25 2.16 2.08 2.00 1.85

Armenia ......................................

3.04 1.35 1.39 1.41 1.46 1.51 1.76

Aruba ..........................................

2.65

2.12 2.04 1.97 1.90 1.85 1.85

Australia .....................................

2.54 1.76 1.79 1.83 1.85 1.85 1.85

Austria ........................................

2.02 1.38 1.42 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.80

Azerbaijan ...................................

4.29 1.67 1.82 1.84 1.85 1.85 1.85

Bahamas .....................................

3.44 2.11 2.02 1.95 1.88 1.85 1.85

Bahrain .......................................

5.95 2.51 2.29 2.11 1.95 1.85 1.85

Bangladesh ..................................

6.15 3.22 2.83 2.63 2.47 2.33 1.90

Barbados...................................... 2.74 1.50 1.50 1.53 1.58 1.63 1.85
Belarus ........................................

2.25 1.24 1.20 1.23 1.28 1.33 1.58

Belgium ......................................

2.02 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.75

Belize........................................... 6.25 3.35 2.93 2.65 2.41 2.21 1.85
Benin ..........................................

7.06 5.87 5.42 4.92 4.41 3.92 2.50

Bhutan .........................................

6.67 2.91 2.19 2.10 2.02 1.95 1.85

Bolivia ........................................

6.50 3.96 3.50 3.09 2.75 2.47 1.85

Bosnia and Herzegovina..............

2.63 1.28 1.23 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.61

Botswana .....................................  6.55 3.18 2.90 2.68 2.51 2.37 1.92
Brazil...........................................  4.72 2.35 2.25 2.15 2.06 1.98 1.85
Brunei Darussalam  .....................  5.40 2.50 2.29 2.11 1.95 1.85 1.85
Bulgaria .......................................  2.17 1.26 1.31 1.34 1.39 1.44 1.69
Burkina Faso ...............................

7.75 6.36 6.00 5.57 5.09 4.58 2.73

Burundi .......................................   6.80 6.80 6.80 6.63 6.26 5.85 3.48
Cambodia ....................................  5.54 3.64 3.18 2.90 2.68 2.51 1.99
Cameroon ....................................  6.30 4.92 4.31 3.77 3.35 3.02 2.20
Canada.........................................

1.98 1.52 1.53 1.53 1.55 1.60 1.85

Cape Verde..................................

7.00 3.77 3.37 3.05 2.80 2.61 2.03

Central African Republic.............

5.72 4.96 4.58 4.14 3.67 3.29 2.29

Chad ............................................  6.60 6.54 6.20 5.78 5.32 4.82 2.83
Channel Islands  ..........................  1.86 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.45 1.50 1.75
Chile ...........................................

3.63

2.00 1.94 1.89 1.85 1.85 1.85

China ..........................................

4.86 1.70 1.73 1.78 1.83 1.85 1.85

China, Hong Kong SAR ..............

2.89 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.34

China, Macao SAR......................

3.20

0.84 0.91 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.31

Colombia ..................................... 5.00 2.47 2.22 2.09 2.00 1.94 1.85
Comoros .....................................

7.05 4.89 4.30 3.76 3.34 3.02 2.20

Congo .........................................

6.29 4.78 4.49 3.99 3.55 3.19 2.26

Costa Rica ...................................

4.35 2.28 2.10 1.94 1.85 1.85 1.85

Côte d'Ivoire ............................... 7.41 5.06 4.46 3.90 3.44 3.10 2.23

ABLE

A.15 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Total fertility (children per woman)

Country or area

1970-1975 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Croatia ........................................

1.96 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.49 1.56 1.85

Cuba ............................................ 3.60 1.63 1.49 1.54 1.64 1.66 1.77
Cyprus .........................................

2.49 1.63 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.73 1.85

Czech Republic ...........................

2.19 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.65

Dem.

People's

Rep.

Korea....... 3.72 1.92 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

Dem.

Republic

the

Congo .......

6.45 6.70 6.70 6.49 6.03 5.52 2.98

Denmark .....................................

1.97 1.76 1.80 1.82 1.85 1.85 1.85

Djibouti ....................................... 7.20 4.52 3.95 3.48 3.13 2.86 2.14
Dominican Republic....................

5.71 2.95 2.81 2.66 2.51 2.35 1.85

Ecuador .......................................

6.00 2.82 2.58 2.38 2.22 2.10 1.85

Egypt ..........................................

5.86

3.17 2.89 2.68 2.51 2.37 1.92

El Salvador ................................. 6.10 2.88 2.68 2.51 2.37 2.25 1.86
Equatorial Guinea........................

5.68

5.64 5.36 5.08 4.68 4.17 2.58

Eritrea .........................................

6.52 5.53 5.05 4.54 4.03 3.59 2.39

Estonia ........................................

2.15 1.39 1.49 1.54 1.59 1.64 1.85

Ethiopia .......................................  6.80 5.78 5.29 4.79 4.28 3.80 2.46
Fiji ...............................................  4.20 2.98 2.75 2.57 2.42 2.30 1.88
Finland ........................................

1.62 1.75 1.83 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

France.......................................... 2.31 1.88 1.89 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
French Guiana ............................

4.18

3.68 3.27 2.97 2.74 2.56 2.01

French Polynesia .........................

5.15

2.39 2.26 2.16 2.07 1.99 1.85

Gabon .........................................

5.00 3.39 3.06 2.81 2.61 2.46 1.96

Gambia ........................................ 6.65 5.16 4.70 4.19 3.72 3.33 2.31
Georgia .......................................

2.60 1.48 1.41 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.75

Germany .....................................

1.64 1.35 1.36 1.39 1.44 1.49 1.74

Ghana .........................................

6.70

4.39 3.84 3.39 3.06 2.81 2.12

Greece ......................................... 2.32 1.28 1.33 1.38 1.43 1.48 1.73
Grenada ......................................

4.60 2.43 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.02 1.85

Guadeloupe..................................  4.49 2.06 2.11 2.03 1.96 1.89 1.85
Guam...........................................  4.12 2.74 2.54 2.39 2.27 2.17 1.85
Guatemala ...................................

6.20 4.60 4.15 3.71 3.29 2.92 1.85

Guinea ......................................... 7.00 5.84 5.44 4.95 4.43 3.94 2.50
Guinea-Bissau ............................

7.10 7.10 7.07 6.75 6.32 5.84 3.24

Guyana ........................................ 4.90 2.43 2.33 2.22 2.13 2.04 1.85
Haiti ............................................

5.60

4.00 3.54 3.19 2.91 2.69 2.07

Honduras .....................................

7.05 3.72 3.31 2.95 2.66 2.42 1.85

Hungary ......................................

2.09 1.30 1.28 1.32 1.39 1.46 1.81

Iceland ........................................

2.84 1.99 2.05 2.05 1.87 1.85 1.85

India ...........................................

5.26 3.11 2.81 2.54 2.32 2.13 1.85

Indonesia .................................... 5.30 2.38 2.18 2.01 1.88 1.85 1.85
Iran (Islamic Republic of) ...........

6.40 2.12 2.04 1.97 1.90 1.85 1.85

Iraq .............................................

7.15 4.86 4.26 3.73 3.31 3.00 2.20

Ireland ........................................

3.82 1.97 1.96 1.90 1.85 1.85 1.85

Israel............................................ 3.77 2.91 2.75 2.57 2.42 2.29 1.88
Italy ............................................

2.33

1.29 1.38 1.41 1.44 1.49 1.74

Jamaica .......................................

5.00

2.63

2.43 2.30 2.20 2.10 1.85

ABLE

A.15 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Total fertility (children per woman)

Country or area

1970-1975 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Japan ...........................................

2.07 1.29 1.27 1.27 1.30 1.35 1.60

Jordan .......................................... 7.79 3.53 3.13 2.81 2.54 2.32 1.85
Kazakhstan ..................................

3.46 2.01 2.31 2.20 2.11 2.03 1.85

Kenya .........................................

8.00

5.00 4.96 4.54 4.04 3.59 2.39

Kuwait ......................................... 6.90 2.30 2.18 2.09 2.01 1.94 1.85
Kyrgyzstan ..................................

4.73 2.50 2.48 2.31 2.12 1.96 1.85

Lao People's Dem. Republic........   6.42 3.59 3.21 2.87 2.60 2.37 1.85
Latvia...........................................  2.00 1.25 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.43 1.68
Lebanon ......................................

4.78 2.32 2.21 2.12 2.03 1.96 1.85

Lesotho .......................................

5.80 3.79 3.37 3.05 2.80 2.61 2.03

Liberia ........................................

6.90 6.80 6.77 6.49 6.10 5.68 3.33

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya ..............

7.59 3.03 2.72 2.47 2.26 2.09 1.85

Lithuania ....................................

2.32 1.28 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.41 1.66

Luxembourg ................................

1.72 1.67 1.66 1.67 1.72 1.77 1.85

Madagascar..................................

6.70 5.28 4.78 4.26 3.79 3.38 2.32

Malawi.........................................  7.40 6.03 5.59 5.12 4.61 4.10 2.56
Malaysia ......................................  5.15 2.87 2.60 2.37 2.17 2.01 1.85
Maldives......................................  7.00 2.81 2.63 2.47 2.34 2.22 1.85
Mali .............................................  7.56 6.70 6.52 6.06 5.56 4.99 2.81
Malta ..........................................

2.07

1.46 1.37 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.75

Martinique ...................................

4.08 1.98 1.91 1.86 1.85 1.85 1.85

Mauritania ...................................

6.58 4.83 4.37 3.88 3.46 3.12 2.23

Mauritius ....................................

3.25 1.91 1.86 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

Mexico......................................... 6.50 2.40 2.21 2.04 1.89 1.85 1.85
Micronesia

(Fed.

States

of)

.........

6.90 4.23 3.71 3.27 2.92 2.63 1.85

Moldova ......................................

2.56 1.50 1.40 1.43 1.48 1.53 1.78

Mongolia .....................................

7.33 2.07 1.87 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

Montenegro .................................

2.36 1.83 1.83 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

Morocco .....................................

6.89 2.52 2.38 2.26 2.16 2.07 1.85

Mozambique................................ 6.58 5.52 5.11 4.61 4.10 3.64 2.41
Myanmar ....................................

5.90 2.25 2.07 1.92 1.85 1.85 1.85

Namibia ......................................

6.60 3.58 3.19 2.91 2.69 2.52 2.00

Nepal ..........................................

5.79

3.68 3.28 2.98 2.75 2.56 2.01

Netherlands .................................

2.06 1.73 1.72 1.72 1.75 1.80 1.85

Netherlands Antilles ....................  2.65 2.06 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
New Caledonia ............................   5.15 2.23 2.08 2.00 1.93 1.87 1.85
New Zealand  ..............................

2.84

1.96 1.99 1.94 1.87 1.85 1.85

Nicaragua ...................................

6.79 3.00 2.76 2.55 2.37 2.23 1.85

Niger ...........................................

8.12

7.45 7.19 6.88 6.54 6.16 3.78

Nigeria ........................................

6.90 5.85 5.32 4.74 4.15 3.64 2.40

Norway........................................ 2.25 1.80 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
Occupied Palestinian Territory....

7.73 5.63 5.09 4.50 3.93 3.47 2.35

Oman ...........................................  7.20 3.70 3.00 2.76 2.58 2.43 1.95
Pakistan .......................................  6.60 3.99 3.52 3.16 2.88 2.67 2.06
Panama ........................................  4.94 2.70 2.56 2.41 2.29 2.19 1.85
Papua New Guinea ......................

6.09

4.32 3.78 3.35 3.03 2.79 2.11

ABLE

A.15 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Total fertility (children per woman)

Country or area

1970-1975 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Paraguay......................................  5.35 3.48 3.08 2.76 2.51 2.33 1.96
Peru .............................................  6.00 2.70 2.51 2.37 2.25 2.15 1.85
Philippines ..................................

6.00 3.54 3.23 2.89 2.61 2.38 1.85

Poland..........................................  2.25 1.25 1.23 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.60
Portugal .......................................  2.75 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.83
Puerto Rico .................................   2.99 1.84 1.83 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
Qatar ...........................................

6.77

2.93 2.66 2.49 2.36 2.24 1.86

Republic of Korea ....................... 4.28 1.24 1.21 1.21 1.24 1.29 1.54
Réunion ......................................

3.93 2.46 2.36 2.24 2.15 2.06 1.85

Romania .....................................

2.62 1.29 1.30 1.32 1.37 1.42 1.67

Russian Federation ...................... 2.03 1.30 1.34 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.71
Rwanda .......................................

8.29 6.01 5.92 5.39 4.81 4.22 2.57

Saint Lucia ..................................

5.69 2.24 2.18 2.09 2.01 1.94 1.85

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 5.54 2.30 2.19 2.10 2.02 1.95 1.85
Samoa .........................................

5.70

4.42 3.93 3.50 3.15 2.88 2.15

São Tomé and Príncipe................

6.52 4.34 3.85 3.43 3.10 2.84 2.13

Saudi Arabia ...............................

7.30

3.81 3.35 2.98 2.69 2.44 1.85

Senegal .......................................

7.00 5.22 4.69 4.10 3.60 3.21 2.27

Serbia...........................................  2.36 1.75 1.79 1.84 1.85 1.85 1.85
Sierra Leone ................................   6.50 6.50 6.47 6.16 5.74 5.27 3.06
Singapore ....................................

2.62 1.35 1.26 1.29 1.34 1.39 1.64

Slovakia.......................................  2.51 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.33 1.38 1.63
Slovenia.......................................  2.19 1.23 1.28 1.33 1.38 1.43 1.68
Solomon Islands  .........................  7.24 4.36 3.87 3.45 3.11 2.85 2.13
Somalia .......................................

7.25 6.43 6.04 5.61 5.14 4.63 2.75

South Africa ................................

5.47 2.80 2.64 2.48 2.34 2.23 1.85

Spain ...........................................

2.86

1.29 1.41 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.84

Sri Lanka ....................................

4.12 2.02 1.88 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85

Sudan ..........................................

6.60 4.82 4.23 3.70 3.29 2.98 2.19

Suriname ..................................... 5.29 2.60 2.42 2.29 2.19 2.09 1.85
Swaziland ...................................

6.87 3.91 3.45 3.10 2.84 2.64 2.05

Sweden ........................................ 1.89 1.67 1.80 1.84 1.85 1.85 1.85
Switzerland .................................

1.82 1.42 1.42 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.80

Syrian Arab Republic .................

7.52 3.48 3.08 2.77 2.51 2.29 1.85

Tajikistan.....................................

6.83 3.81 3.35 2.98 2.68 2.44 1.85

TFYR Macedonia .......................

2.96

1.56 1.43 1.38 1.43 1.48 1.73

Thailand....................................... 4.96 1.83 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
Timor-Leste.................................

6.15 6.96 6.53 6.00 5.49 4.91 2.78

Togo ............................................ 7.06 5.37 4.80 4.22 3.69 3.25 2.02
Tonga ..........................................

5.50 3.73 3.83 3.39 3.06 2.81 2.12

Trinidad and Tobago ..................

3.45 1.61 1.64 1.69 1.74 1.79 1.85

Tunisia ........................................

6.21 2.04 1.93 1.82 1.80 1.84 1.85

Turkey .........................................

5.30 2.23 2.14 2.06 1.98 1.91 1.85

Turkmenistan...............................

6.19 2.76 2.50 2.29 2.10 1.95 1.85

Uganda ........................................ 7.10 6.75 6.46 6.00 5.48 4.91 2.78
Ukraine .......................................

2.16 1.15 1.22 1.24 1.29 1.34 1.59

ABLE

A.15 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Total fertility (children per woman)

Country or area

1970-1975 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

United Arab Emirates..................

6.36 2.52 2.31 2.20 2.11 2.02 1.85

United Kingdom ......................... 2.04 1.70 1.82 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
United

Republic

Tanzania.......

6.75 5.66 5.16 4.57 4.00 3.51 2.12

United States of America.............

2.02 2.04 2.05 2.02 1.94 1.88 1.85

United

States

Virgin

Islands........ 4.98 2.23 2.15 2.06 1.98 1.92 1.85

Uruguay....................................... 3.00 2.20 2.12 2.03 1.96 1.89 1.85
Uzbekistan...................................

6.30 2.74 2.49 2.27 2.09 1.94 1.85

Vanuatu ......................................

6.11 4.15 3.74 3.33 3.01 2.77 2.11

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) .. 4.94 2.72 2.55 2.39 2.26 2.15 1.85
Viet Nam .....................................

6.70 2.32 2.14 1.97 1.86 1.85 1.85

Western Sahara............................ 6.60 3.01 2.70 2.53 2.38 2.27 1.87
Yemen ........................................

8.70

6.02 5.50 4.93 4.33 3.79 2.45

Zambia......................................... 7.43 5.65 5.18 4.67 4.16 3.69 2.42
Zimbabwe.................................... 7.40 3.56 3.19 2.91 2.69 2.52 1.99

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World Population

Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.16.

HE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND THE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS

WITH THE LOWEST LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

2005-2010

AND

2045-2050

2005-2010

2045-2050

Rank

Country or area

Life expectancy

at birth (years)

Rank Country or area

Life expectancy

at birth (years)

A. Highest life expectancy at birth

1. Japan

82.6

1. Japan

87.1

2. China, Hong Kong SAR

82.2

2. China, Hong Kong SAR

86.7

3. Iceland

81.8

3. Switzerland

86.1

4. Switzerland

81.7

4. Iceland

86.1

5. Australia

81.2

5. Australia

86.0

6. Spain

80.9

6. China, Macao SAR

85.7

7. Sweden

80.9

7. Spain

85.4

8. Israel

80.7

8. Israel

85.4

9. China, Macao SAR

80.7

9. Canada

85.3

10. France

80.7

10. Sweden

85.2

B. Lowest life expectancy at birth

1. Swaziland

39.6

1. Swaziland

53.9

2. Mozambique

42.1

2. Lesotho

55.8

3. Zambia

42.4

3. Sierra Leone

56.8

4. Sierra Leone

42.6

4. Mozambique

57.2

5. Lesotho

42.6

5. Zambia

57.4

6. Angola

42.7

6. Angola

58.2

7. Zimbabwe

43.5

7. Central African Republic

58.6

8. Afghanistan

43.8

8. Afghanistan

58.7

9. Central African Republic

44.7

9. Malawi

60.2

10. Liberia

45.7

10. Liberia

60.5

WORLD

67.2

WORLD

75.4

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.17.

IFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

BOTH SEXES COMBINED

BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

World ................................................

66.0

67.2

68.5

69.8

70.9

75.4

Afghanistan........................................

42.1

43.8

45.5

47.2

49.0

58.7

Albania ..............................................

75.7

76.4

77.2

77.9

78.6

81.6

Algeria ..............................................

71.0

72.3

73.5

74.5

75.4

79.0

Angola ...............................................

41.0

42.7

44.8

46.6

48.3

58.2

Argentina ..........................................

74.3

75.3

76.2

77.1

77.8

80.7

Armenia ............................................

71.4

72.0

72.7

73.4

74.2

77.4

Aruba ................................................

73.5

74.2

75.0

75.7

76.3

79.6

Australia ............................................

80.4

81.2

82.0

82.7

83.3

86.0

Austria ..............................................

78.9

79.8

80.4

81.0

81.6

84.4

Azerbaijan..........................................

66.8

67.5

68.6

69.6

70.5

74.5

Bahamas ............................................

71.1

73.5

75.4

75.8

77.4

80.8

Bahrain ..............................................

74.8

75.6

76.4

77.1

77.8

80.8

Bangladesh.........................................

62.0

64.1

66.2

68.1

69.7

75.5

Barbados ............................................

76.0

77.3

78.3

78.9

79.4

81.6

Belarus ..............................................

68.4

69.0

69.9

70.7

71.6

75.7

Belgium ............................................

78.2

79.4

80.1

80.7

81.3

84.1

Belize.................................................

75.6

76.1

76.2

75.8

77.0

80.7

Benin .................................................

54.4

56.7

59.3

61.4

63.2

70.7

Bhutan................................................

63.5

65.6

67.6

69.3

70.8

76.0

Bolivia ..............................................

63.9

65.6

67.2

68.8

70.3

76.5

Bosnia and Herzegovina ...................

74.1

74.9

75.5

76.1

76.7

79.9

Botswana ...........................................

46.6

50.7

52.0

54.5

56.9

66.7

Brazil .................................................

71.0

72.4

73.5

74.7

75.7

79.5

Brunei Darussalam ............................

76.3

77.1

77.7

78.2

78.6

81.1

Bulgaria .............................................

72.4

73.0

73.8

74.6

75.3

78.9

Burkina Faso......................................

50.7

52.3

53.9

55.5

57.3

65.2

Burundi .............................................

47.4

49.6

51.3

53.0

54.5

63.8

Cambodia...........................................

56.8

59.7

62.8

65.3

67.5

74.0

Cameroon...........................................

49.9

50.4

52.4

54.1

55.6

64.4

Canada ...............................................

79.8

80.7

81.4

82.0

82.6

85.3

Cape Verde ........................................

70.2

71.7

73.0

74.1

75.0

78.6

Central African Republic ...................

43.3

44.7

46.5

48.0

49.5

58.6

Chad...................................................

50.5

50.7

52.1

54.1

56.1

65.2

Channel Islands .................................

78.3

79.0

79.7

80.4

81.0

84.0

Chile .................................................

77.9

78.6

79.2

79.8

80.3

82.2

China .................................................

72.0

73.0

74.0

74.9

75.8

79.3

China, Hong Kong SAR ....................

81.5

82.2

82.8

83.4

83.9

86.7

China, Macao SAR ............................

80.0

80.7

81.4

82.1

82.8

85.7

Colombia ...........................................

71.7

72.9

74.0

74.9

75.8

79.0

Comoros ............................................

63.0

65.2

67.2

68.9

70.5

75.9

Congo ...............................................

53.0

55.3

56.8

58.3

60.0

67.8

Costa Rica..........................................

78.1

78.8

79.4

79.9

80.4

82.0

Côte d'Ivoire .....................................

46.8

48.3

49.9

52.0

53.9

62.6

Croatia ..............................................

74.9

75.7

76.5

77.3

77.9

80.6

ABLE

A.17 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Cuba...................................................

77.2

78.3

79.1

79.9

80.4

82.9

Cyprus................................................

79.0

79.7

80.4

81.0

83.6

Czech Republic..................................

75.4

76.5

77.3

78.1

78.8

82.0

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea .............

66.7

67.3

68.2

69.1

69.9

73.4

Dem. Republic of the Congo ............

45.0

46.5

47.9

49.6

51.4

60.9

Denmark ...........................................

77.3

78.3

79.0

79.7

80.3

83.0

Djibouti..............................................

53.4

54.8

57.3

59.7

61.6

68.8

Dominican Republic ..........................

70.8

72.2

73.2

74.1

74.9

77.8

Ecuador .............................................

74.2

75.0

75.8

76.5

77.2

80.0

Egypt .................................................

69.8

71.3

72.6

73.7

74.7

78.6

El Salvador .......................................

70.7

71.9

73.0

74.0

75.0

78.8

Equatorial Guinea .............................

49.3

51.6

54.0

56.1

58.0

66.0

Eritrea ...............................................

55.2

58.0

60.2

61.9

63.4

69.8

Estonia ..............................................

70.9

71.4

72.3

73.7

74.9

79.0

Ethiopia..............................................

50.7

52.9

55.0

56.9

58.9

67.3

Fiji......................................................

67.8

68.8

69.7

70.5

71.2

76.1

Finland ..............................................

78.4

79.3

80.2

80.9

81.4

84.2

France ................................................

79.6

80.7

81.3

81.9

82.4

85.1

French Guiana ...................................

75.1

75.9

76.7

77.4

78.2

81.0

French Polynesia................................

73.0

74.1

75.0

75.8

76.6

79.9

Gabon ...............................................

56.8

56.7

59.7

62.3

63.7

69.4

Gambia ..............................................

58.0

59.4

61.5

63.7

65.4

71.5

Georgia .............................................

70.5

71.0

71.7

72.4

73.1

76.4

Germany ...........................................

78.7

79.4

80.0

80.6

81.2

84.1

Ghana ................................................

58.5

60.0

61.9

63.5

65.0

70.9

Greece................................................

78.3

79.5

80.1

80.8

81.4

84.1

Grenada .............................................

67.7

68.7

69.6

70.4

71.2

76.1

Guadeloupe........................................

78.4

79.2

79.9

80.5

81.2

84.0

Guam .................................................

74.6

75.5

76.3

77.1

77.8

80.7

Guatemala .........................................

69.0

70.3

71.5

72.6

73.7

78.1

Guinea................................................

53.7

56.0

58.6

61.1

63.4

71.9

Guinea-Bissau ...................................

45.5

46.4

48.4

50.4

52.3

61.7

Guyana...............................................

63.6

66.8

68.4

70.0

71.3

76.0

Haiti ..................................................

58.1

60.9

62.7

64.4

66.0

74.2

Honduras............................................

68.6

70.2

71.4

72.5

73.4

77.4

Hungary ............................................

72.4

73.3

74.4

75.3

76.2

79.6

Iceland ..............................................

81.0

81.8

82.3

82.9

83.4

86.1

India ..................................................

62.9

64.7

66.6

68.4

70.0

75.6

Indonesia ...........................................

68.6

70.7

72.2

73.6

74.7

78.6

Iran (Islamic Republic of)..................

69.5

71.0

72.3

73.4

74.5

78.4

Iraq.....................................................

57.0

59.5

65.7

68.7

70.8

76.1

Ireland ...............................................

77.8

78.9

79.6

80.2

80.8

83.7

Israel ..................................................

79.7

80.7

81.5

82.1

82.7

85.4

Italy ...................................................

79.9

80.5

81.1

81.7

82.3

85.0

Jamaica .............................................

72.0

72.6

73.3

74.0

74.6

77.5

Japan .................................................

81.9

82.6

83.5

84.2

84.7

87.1

Jordan ................................................

71.3

72.5

73.6

74.6

75.5

79.1

ABLE

A.17 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Kazakhstan.........................................

64.9

67.0

69.0

70.6

72.0

76.9

Kenya ................................................

51.0

54.1

56.8

58.6

59.9

67.2

Kuwait ...............................................

76.9

77.6

78.2

78.8

79.4

82.0

Kyrgyzstan.........................................

65.3

65.9

66.9

68.1

69.4

74.1

Lao People's Dem. Republic ..............

61.9

64.4

66.5

68.4

70.0

75.7

Latvia.................................................

71.3

72.7

73.8

74.8

75.8

79.7

Lebanon ............................................

71.0

72.0

72.9

73.9

74.9

78.7

Lesotho .............................................

44.6

42.6

44.8

46.3

47.9

55.8

Liberia ...............................................

43.8

45.7

47.5

49.4

51.2

60.5

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.....................

72.7

74.0

75.0

75.8

76.6

80.1

Lithuania ...........................................

72.1

73.0

74.1

75.1

76.0

79.7

Luxembourg.......................................

78.2

78.7

79.4

80.0

80.6

83.6

Madagascar........................................

57.3

59.4

61.2

62.6

64.0

71.3

Malawi...............................................

45.0

48.3

50.1

51.6

53.1

60.2

Malaysia.............................................

73.0

74.2

75.2

76.0

76.8

80.1

Maldives ............................................

65.6

68.5

70.4

72.0

73.4

77.7

Mali....................................................

51.8

54.5

56.4

58.3

60.2

68.2

Malta .................................................

78.6

79.4

80.1

80.7

81.3

84.0

Martinique .........................................

78.8

79.5

80.2

80.9

81.5

84.2

Mauritania..........................................

62.2

64.2

65.8

67.2

68.6

73.6

Mauritius ...........................................

72.0

72.8

73.6

74.4

75.1

78.7

Mexico...............................................

74.9

76.2

77.3

78.2

79.0

81.3

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...............

67.6

68.5

69.4

70.3

71.1

76.1

Moldova ............................................

67.9

68.9

69.6

70.7

71.7

75.6

Mongolia............................................

65.0

66.8

68.4

69.9

71.1

76.2

Montenegro........................................

74.0

74.5

75.3

76.0

76.6

79.5

Morocco ............................................

69.6

71.2

72.4

73.6

74.6

78.6

Mozambique ......................................

44.0

42.1

43.6

45.7

47.5

57.2

Myanmar ...........................................

59.9

62.1

64.6

66.6

68.4

74.6

Namibia ............................................

51.5

52.9

52.8

54.5

56.2

62.4

Nepal .................................................

61.3

63.8

65.9

67.9

69.6

75.5

Netherlands .......................................

78.7

79.8

80.3

80.9

81.4

84.0

Netherlands Antilles ..........................

75.0

75.1

76.0

76.8

77.5

80.7

New Caledonia ..................................

75.1

76.1

77.0

77.8

78.6

81.9

New Zealand .....................................

79.2

80.2

81.0

81.7

82.4

85.2

Nicaragua ..........................................

70.8

72.9

74.5

75.7

76.7

78.4

Niger .................................................

54.5

56.9

59.0

60.8

62.6

69.8

Nigeria ..............................................

46.6

46.9

48.4

50.4

52.4

62.1

Norway ..............................................

79.3

80.2

80.9

81.6

82.1

85.0

Occupied Palestinian Territory .........

72.4

73.4

74.4

75.4

76.2

79.5

Oman .................................................

74.2

75.6

76.6

77.4

78.0

81.0

Pakistan..............................................

63.6

65.5

67.2

68.7

70.1

75.7

Panama ..............................................

74.7

75.5

76.3

77.0

77.7

80.4

Papua New Guinea.............................

56.7

57.2

58.4

59.9

61.2

67.8

Paraguay ............................................

70.8

71.8

72.7

73.6

74.4

77.3

Peru....................................................

69.9

71.4

72.7

73.8

74.7

78.2

Philippines ........................................

70.3

71.7

72.9

74.0

74.9

78.7

ABLE

A.17 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Poland ................................................

74.6

75.6

76.4

77.2

77.9

80.9

Portugal..............................................

77.2

78.1

78.9

79.6

80.2

82.8

Puerto Rico .......................................

77.8

78.7

79.4

80.1

80.7

83.2

Qatar .................................................

74.3

75.6

76.4

77.1

77.8

80.8

Republic of Korea .............................

77.0

78.6

79.6

80.2

80.8

83.5

Réunion .............................................

75.7

76.4

77.0

77.6

78.2

80.6

Romania ............................................

71.3

72.5

73.6

74.6

75.5

79.1

Russian Federation.............................

64.8

65.5

65.8

67.1

68.6

73.4

Rwanda ..............................................

43.4

46.2

48.3

50.7

52.8

61.9

Saint Lucia ........................................

72.5

73.7

74.7

75.6

76.5

79.8

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines......

70.6

71.6

72.5

73.4

74.1

77.3

Samoa ...............................................

70.0

71.5

72.7

73.7

74.7

78.4

São Tomé and Príncipe .....................

64.3

65.5

66.6

67.9

69.2

73.9

Saudi Arabia ......................................

71.6

72.8

73.8

74.7

75.5

79.1

Senegal ..............................................

61.6

63.1

64.3

65.5

66.6

71.0

Serbia.................................................

73.2

74.0

74.7

75.4

76.1

79.4

Sierra Leone.......................................

41.0

42.6

43.9

45.4

47.1

56.8

Singapore ..........................................

78.8

80.0

80.6

81.2

81.8

84.6

Slovakia .............................................

73.8

74.7

75.6

76.4

77.2

80.3

Slovenia .............................................

76.8

77.9

78.7

79.3

80.0

82.9

Solomon Islands ................................

62.3

63.6

64.8

65.9

67.0

72.5

Somalia .............................................

45.9

48.2

50.2

52.1

54.1

63.7

South Africa.......................................

53.4

49.3

50.0

52.2

54.2

62.6

Spain .................................................

80.0

80.9

81.5

82.1

82.7

85.4

Sri Lanka ...........................................

70.8

72.4

73.1

73.8

74.5

77.6

Sudan ................................................

56.4

58.6

60.5

62.2

63.9

70.3

Suriname............................................

69.1

70.2

71.1

72.3

73.5

77.4

Swaziland ..........................................

43.9

39.6

40.1

42.5

44.2

53.9

Sweden ..............................................

80.1

80.9

81.6

82.2

82.7

85.2

Switzerland .......................................

80.7

81.7

82.3

82.8

83.4

86.1

Syrian Arab Republic.........................

73.1

74.1

75.1

76.0

76.8

80.0

Tajikistan ...........................................

65.9

66.7

67.7

68.7

69.6

74.2

TFYR Macedonia ..............................

73.4

74.2

74.9

75.6

76.2

79.5

Thailand.............................................

68.6

70.6

71.7

72.8

73.8

78.1

Timor-Leste .......................................

58.3

60.8

63.2

65.4

67.4

74.2

Togo...................................................

57.6

58.4

60.2

62.0

63.6

70.1

Tonga ................................................

72.3

73.3

74.2

75.1

75.8

79.2

Trinidad and Tobago .........................

69.0

69.8

71.4

73.0

74.2

78.7

Tunisia ..............................................

73.0

73.9

74.8

75.6

76.5

79.8

Turkey................................................

70.8

71.8

72.7

73.6

74.6

78.5

Turkmenistan .....................................

62.4

63.2

64.6

66.2

67.6

73.1

Uganda...............................................

47.8

51.5

54.2

56.6

58.2

65.2

Ukraine .............................................

67.6

67.9

68.6

69.8

71.0

75.2

United Arab Emirates ........................

77.8

78.7

79.3

79.9

80.5

83.4

United Kingdom ................................

78.5

79.4

80.1

80.7

81.3

84.1

United Republic of Tanzania ............

49.7

52.5

54.4

56.2

57.9

66.1

United States of America ...................

77.4

78.2

78.9

79.5

80.1

83.1

ABLE

A.17 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

United States Virgin Islands ..............

78.5

79.4

80.1

80.8

81.5

84.5

Uruguay ............................................

75.3

76.4

77.3

78.1

78.8

81.6

Uzbekistan .........................................

66.5

67.2

68.1

69.0

69.9

74.3

Vanuatu .............................................

68.4

70.0

71.5

72.7

73.8

78.0

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) ........

72.8

73.7

74.7

75.5

76.3

79.6

Viet Nam............................................

73.0

74.2

75.3

76.3

77.1

80.3

Western Sahara ..................................

63.9

65.9

67.8

69.5

71.0

76.2

Yemen ...............................................

60.3

62.7

64.9

67.0

68.8

75.0

Zambia...............................................

39.2

42.4

44.5

46.8

48.3

57.4

Zimbabwe ..........................................

40.0

43.5

47.4

50.4

53.0

64.2

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.18.

NFANT MORTALITY RATE BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS

Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

World .................................................. 53.9 49.4 45.1 41.1 37.7 23.4

Afghanistan.......................................... 168.1 157.0 146.9 136.8 126.5 76.4
Albania ................................................

21.7 19.2 17.0 15.0 13.5 9.3

Algeria ................................................

37.4 31.1 25.8 21.7 18.9 11.1

Angola .................................................

140.8 131.9 122.2 113.0 104.5 63.8

Argentina ............................................

15.0 13.4 12.0 10.7 9.6 6.0

Armenia ..............................................

30.3 28.9 27.0 24.9 22.8 15.4

Aruba ..................................................

18.8 17.0 15.3 13.8 12.5 8.0

Australia ..............................................

4.8

4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 2.5

Austria ................................................

4.6

4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.4

Azerbaijan............................................

75.6 72.3 66.9 62.0 57.6 38.2

Bahamas ..............................................

15.3 13.8 11.4 9.5 8.4 6.0

Bahrain ................................................

12.7 11.2 9.9 9.2 8.6 6.3

Bangladesh...........................................

61.3 52.5 43.8 35.9 29.5 13.1

Barbados ..............................................

12.3 10.1 9.3 8.7 8.2 6.2

Belarus ................................................

9.7 9.4 9.1 8.7 8.3 6.2

Belgium ..............................................

4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.3

Belize................................................... 18.5 16.4 15.2 13.9 12.8 8.7
Benin ...................................................

106.0 98.0 90.7 83.5 76.8 47.9

Bhutan.................................................. 52.7 45.0 38.4 32.9 28.3 15.7
Bolivia ................................................

55.6 45.6 38.1 32.6 27.1 14.0

Bosnia and Herzegovina ...................... 13.4 12.0 10.9 10.0 9.0 6.3
Botswana .............................................

58.9 46.5 37.7 30.6 26.6 14.5

Brazil ................................................... 27.3 23.6 20.3 17.1 14.3 7.5
Brunei Darussalam .............................. 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.3
Bulgaria ...............................................

12.6 11.8 10.8 9.9 9.0 6.0

Burkina Faso........................................ 109.9 104.4 99.6 94.3 88.3 61.1
Burundi ...............................................

106.5 99.4 91.8 84.6 78.2 44.8

Cambodia.............................................

72.8 62.7 52.9 43.9 36.0 15.3

Cameroon.............................................

90.0 87.5 79.7 72.7 66.9 38.1

Canada ................................................. 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.4
Cape Verde .......................................... 29.8 24.6 20.8 18.1 15.8 8.9
Central African Republic ..................... 102.1 96.8 88.8 81.3 75.1 43.7
Chad.....................................................

124.3 119.2 111.7 103.6 96.2 63.3

Channel Islands ................................... 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 3.7
Chile ...................................................

8.0 7.2 6.5 5.9 5.4 4.0

China ...................................................

25.7 23.0 20.5 18.3 16.5 10.1

China, Hong Kong SAR ...................... 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 2.9
China, Macao SAR ..............................

7.7 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.6 4.1

Colombia .............................................

20.5 19.1 16.5 15.0 13.0 9.5

Comoros ..............................................

57.7 48.4 40.1 33.0 27.2 12.8

Congo .................................................

75.1 70.3 64.1 57.2 50.1 24.8

Costa Rica............................................

10.5 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.3 6.0

Côte d'Ivoire ....................................... 121.8 116.9 109.1 100.9 93.8 62.0
Croatia ................................................

6.9 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 4.2

ABLE

A.18 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Cuba.....................................................

6.1 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.6 2.2

Cyprus.................................................. 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.8 3.6
Czech Republic.................................... 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.2
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea .............. 50.0 48.2 45.7 42.9 40.1 27.9
Dem. Republic of the Congo ...............

119.6 113.5 106.5 98.6 90.2 53.3

Denmark .............................................

4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.1

Djibouti................................................

95.0 85.3 74.8 65.3 57.3 28.3

Dominican Republic ............................ 34.9 29.6 25.1 21.4 18.3 10.0
Ecuador ...............................................

24.9 21.1 17.6 14.0 11.5 6.0

Egypt ...................................................

35.9 29.3 24.2 20.7 17.7 9.7

El Salvador ......................................... 26.4 21.5 17.5 14.4 12.1 7.3
Equatorial Guinea ...............................

100.8

92.3 83.5 75.1 67.6 38.2

Eritrea .................................................

62.7 55.3 49.1 43.4 38.7 22.7

Estonia ................................................

7.4

7.2 6.6 6.1 5.7 4.3

Ethiopia................................................

95.4 86.9 78.4 70.2 62.8 35.1

Fiji........................................................ 21.6 19.5 18.1 16.8 15.7 9.2
Finland ................................................

3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.6

France .................................................. 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.2
French Guiana .....................................

14.8 13.4 11.8 10.4 9.1 6.8

French Polynesia..................................

8.8 8.0 7.4 6.9 6.4 4.9

Gabon .................................................

61.8 53.8 44.0 37.1 32.7 19.7

Gambia ................................................ 79.9 74.2 67.9 62.0 57.1 40.2
Georgia ...............................................

40.5 38.7 36.1 33.6 31.2 20.6

Germany .............................................

4.5

4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.3

Ghana ..................................................

63.4 56.6 50.2 44.5 39.7 23.1

Greece.................................................. 7.7 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.4 3.7
Grenada ...............................................

37.7 33.8 30.5 27.5 24.9 12.2

Guadeloupe.......................................... 7.3 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.5 3.8
Guam ................................................... 10.1 9.0 8.2 7.3 6.8 5.3
Guatemala ...........................................

38.6 30.1 22.6 18.1 15.3 8.0

Guinea..................................................

113.2 102.5 93.0 83.5 74.7 43.0

Guinea-Bissau .....................................

121.2

112.7 103.6 94.8 86.4 50.4

Guyana................................................. 49.4 42.9 37.5 33.0 29.2 19.0
Haiti ....................................................

56.3 48.8 43.6 39.0 35.1 17.4

Honduras..............................................

31.6 28.2 24.9 21.6 18.7 13.4

Hungary ..............................................

7.2 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.5 4.3

Iceland ................................................

3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.1

India ....................................................

62.5 55.0 48.8 43.4 38.9 23.0

Indonesia .............................................

34.2 26.6 21.3 17.6 15.0 8.8

Iran (Islamic Republic of)....................

37.2

30.6

25.4 21.2 18.1 9.9

Iraq....................................................... 94.3 81.5 56.2 40.8 31.7 14.1
Ireland .................................................

5.4 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.0

Israel .................................................... 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.4
Italy .....................................................

5.2

5.0

4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5

Jamaica ...............................................

14.6

13.6 12.9 12.2 11.6 8.7

Japan ...................................................

3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.6

Jordan .................................................. 23.2 19.4 16.5 14.5 12.9 8.2

ABLE

A.18 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Kazakhstan...........................................

32.0 24.1 20.8 18.2 16.0 9.4

Kenya ..................................................

70.0

64.4

58.4 53.3 49.2 28.3

Kuwait ................................................. 8.6 8.1 7.6 7.2 6.8 5.3
Kyrgyzstan...........................................

55.1 53.1 49.5 45.6 41.5 26.3

Lao People's Dem. Republic ................

62.2

51.4 42.7 35.0 28.8 13.1

Latvia................................................... 11.6 10.4 9.4 8.5 7.7 5.1
Lebanon ..............................................

25.2 22.0 19.2 17.0 14.8 8.8

Lesotho ...............................................

74.2 64.6 55.3 47.2 41.6 23.8

Liberia .................................................

142.8 132.5 121.7 111.1 101.0 56.6

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya....................... 20.9 18.0 15.8 14.2 12.8 8.7
Lithuania .............................................

9.5 8.5 7.9 7.3 6.8 4.7

Luxembourg.........................................

4.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 2.9

Madagascar..........................................

74.8 65.5 57.6 51.3 45.6 25.7

Malawi.................................................

101.1 89.4 79.8 72.3 66.7 45.4

Malaysia............................................... 10.1 8.9 8.0 7.3 6.6 5.1
Maldives ..............................................

45.8 34.1 27.1 21.7 17.4 9.6

Mali......................................................

138.1 128.5 119.8 111.4 103.2 69.4

Malta ...................................................

6.9 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.4 4.2

Martinique ...........................................

7.0 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.6 4.3

Mauritania............................................

68.0 63.0 58.7 54.6 50.9 36.4

Mauritius .............................................

15.2 14.0 12.9 11.9 11.0 7.3

Mexico................................................. 20.5 16.7 13.7 11.5 9.7 5.6
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ................. 37.9 34.1 30.7 27.7 25.0 11.9
Moldova ..............................................

16.7 15.8 14.8 13.7 12.7 9.1

Mongolia..............................................

44.7 39.8 35.4 31.8 28.6 16.7

Montenegro..........................................

23.6 22.3 20.6 19.1 17.6 11.9

Morocco ..............................................

37.5 30.6 25.3 21.5 18.6 10.3

Mozambique ........................................

107.7 95.9 84.1 74.5 66.8 38.2

Myanmar .............................................

74.9 66.0 58.1 51.4 45.8 26.9

Namibia ..............................................

55.0 42.3 32.1 25.2 22.3 13.8

Nepal ...................................................

64.5 53.9 45.0 37.0 30.4 13.3

Netherlands ......................................... 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.6
Netherlands Antilles ............................ 15.0 14.8 13.1 11.9 10.8 7.3
New Caledonia .................................... 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.0
New Zealand .......................................

5.6

5.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 2.8

Nicaragua ............................................

26.4 21.5 18.1 15.9 13.9 10.8

Niger ...................................................

118.9 110.8 103.6 96.6 89.9 61.8

Nigeria ................................................

115.5 109.5 101.3 92.3 84.0 48.8

Norway ................................................ 3.8  3.3  3.2 3.1 2.9 2.4
Occupied Palestinian Territory ............ 20.9 17.5 15.2 13.4 11.7  7.9
Oman ................................................... 15.2  12.3 10.5 9.7 9.0 6.6
Pakistan................................................

75.4 67.5 60.5 54.4 49.2 28.5

Panama ................................................ 20.6 18.2 15.7 13.5 11.6 6.5
Papua New Guinea...............................

65.3 60.7 55.6 50.9 46.8 28.4

Paraguay ..............................................

35.5 32.0 28.8 25.8 23.2 14.6

Peru...................................................... 30.3 21.2 18.8 16.7 15.0 9.3
Philippines ..........................................

27.8 23.1 19.3 16.8 14.6 8.7

ABLE

A.18 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Poland .................................................. 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.3
Portugal................................................

5.5 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.7

Puerto Rico ......................................... 8.1 7.2 6.6 6.2 5.9 4.6
Qatar ...................................................

9.7 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.9 5.3

Republic of Korea

............................... 4.7 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.3

Réunion ...............................................

14.9 13.4 12.1 11.0 9.9 7.3

Romania ..............................................

16.8 14.9 13.1 11.6 10.3 6.7

Russian Federation............................... 17.2 16.6 15.3 14.1 13.0 9.0
Rwanda ................................................

117.7 112.4 105.1 90.9 88.9 52.5

Saint Lucia ..........................................

14.6

12.6 11.2 10.1 9.1 6.5

Saint

Vincent

and

the

Grenadines........ 26.7 23.3 20.3 18.0 16.2 10.0

Samoa .................................................

25.7

22.3

19.5 17.3 15.4 9.5

São Tomé and Príncipe ....................... 76.9 72.3 68.0 63.2 58.2 39.0
Saudi Arabia ........................................

22.4

18.8 16.4 14.3 12.6 8.1

Senegal ................................................

69.1 65.7 62.6 59.7 56.8 44.6

Serbia................................................... 13.0 11.7 10.6 9.6 8.8 6.0
Sierra Leone......................................... 165.6 160.3 154.8 148.1 140.5 102.1
Singapore ............................................

3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8

Slovakia ...............................................

7.4 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.3

Slovenia ...............................................

5.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.5

Solomon Islands .................................. 60.1 54.5 49.5 44.9 40.4 20.3
Somalia ...............................................

127.3 116.3 106.6 98.1 89.6 52.1

South Africa......................................... 51.9 44.8 39.5 34.9 31.5 19.4
Spain ...................................................

4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.2

Sri Lanka .............................................

12.4 11.0 10.3 9.8 9.2 6.7

Sudan ..................................................

72.6 64.9 57.7 51.2 45.5 26.1

Suriname..............................................

31.8 27.7 25.2 22.8 20.9 12.2

Swaziland ............................................

87.3 71.0 56.8 45.7 39.7 21.5

Sweden ................................................ 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.3
Switzerland .........................................

4.4

4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.1

Syrian Arab Republic...........................

18.6 16.0 14.0 12.4 10.9 7.6

Tajikistan .............................................

63.0 60.2 56.4 52.8 49.6 33.0

TFYR Macedonia ................................ 16.5 14.8 13.3 12.0 10.8 7.1
Thailand...............................................

11.9 10.6 9.5 8.5 7.8 5.5

Timor-Leste .........................................

78.5 66.7 56.3 47.1 38.9 15.8

Togo.....................................................

93.9 88.6 81.8 74.7 68.5 45.7

Tonga ..................................................

20.7 18.6 16.8 15.3 13.9 9.3

Trinidad and Tobago ...........................

15.1 12.4 10.3 8.7 7.9 5.5

Tunisia ................................................

22.5 19.8 17.3 15.1 13.1 8.3

Turkey.................................................. 31.4 27.5 24.0 20.9 17.9 9.7
Turkmenistan ....................................... 78.3 74.7 68.5 62.0 56.2 35.3
Uganda................................................. 84.2 76.9 68.4 60.1 53.6 30.3
Ukraine ...............................................

13.5 12.8 11.8 10.8 10.1 7.2

United Arab Emirates ..........................

9.0 8.2 7.6 7.1 6.7 4.9

United Kingdom .................................. 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.0
United Republic of Tanzania .............. 78.2 72.6 64.4 56.9 50.8 29.0
United States of America ..................... 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.4 4.1

ABLE

A.18 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

United States Virgin Islands ................ 9.4 8.6 8.0 7.4 6.9 4.9
Uruguay ..............................................

14.4 13.1 11.5 10.2 8.9 4.6

Uzbekistan ...........................................

58.0 55.0 51.0 47.7 44.8 29.6

Vanuatu ...............................................

34.3 28.3 23.5 19.5 16.9 9.4

Venezuela

(Bolivarian

Rep.

of)

.......... 18.9 17.0 15.3 13.8 12.4 7.4

Viet Nam..............................................

22.3

19.5 17.3 15.4 13.7 9.0

Western Sahara .................................... 53.1 44.2 36.3 29.8 24.7 11.9
Yemen .................................................

69.2 58.6 49.1 40.7 33.4 14.5

Zambia................................................. 101.6 92.7 81.3 70.6 63.1 35.7
Zimbabwe ............................................

64.4 58.0 50.0 42.9 38.2 22.2

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007). World

Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.19.

NDER

FIVE MORTALITY BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)

Country

area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

World .............................................

80.3

73.7

66.7 60.3 54.8

31.9

Afghanistan.....................................

252.0

235.4

219.9 203.8 187.4

106.9

Albania ...........................................

25.8

22.3

19.3 16.7 14.8

9.9

Algeria ...........................................

40.6

33.2

27.4 22.8 19.9

11.7

Angola ............................................

245.9

230.8

213.1 195.0 178.2

102.1

Argentina .......................................

17.4

15.5

13.8 12.4 11.2

7.0

Armenia .........................................

35.2

33.8

31.8 29.7 27.4

18.4

Aruba .............................................

21.9

19.5

17.5 15.6 14.1

8.9

Australia .........................................

6.0

5.6

5.2 4.8 4.5

3.2

Austria ...........................................

5.6

5.4

5.2 5.1 4.9

4.2

Azerbaijan.......................................

90.8

86.1

78.5 71.8 65.9

41.9

Bahamas .........................................

19.5

17.5

14.0 11.1 9.6

6.8

Bahrain ...........................................

15.8

13.7

12.1 11.2 10.4

7.5

Bangladesh......................................

83.1

69.3

55.6 44.3 35.7

14.9

Barbados .........................................

13.8

11.4

10.4 9.6 9.0

6.7

Belarus ...........................................

11.8

12.0

12.0 11.5 11.1

8.7

Belgium .........................................

5.4

5.3

5.1 5.0 4.9

4.3

Belize..............................................

23.0

20.0

18.3 16.5 14.9

9.8

Benin ..............................................

161.3

146.1

130.8 117.0 104.9

58.9

Bhutan.............................................

78.3

64.8

53.4 43.6 36.0

18.3

Bolivia ...........................................

72.2

60.6

51.5 44.5 37.6

19.4

Bosnia and Herzegovina .................

15.6

13.9

12.6 11.5 10.5

7.4

Botswana ........................................

89.1

67.5

52.0 40.0 33.7

17.3

Brazil ..............................................

34.0

29.1

25.2 21.4 18.2

9.8

Brunei Darussalam .........................

7.4

6.7

6.6 6.4 6.2

5.5

Bulgaria ..........................................

14.9

14.1

13.1 12.0 10.9

7.2

Burkina Faso...................................

192.9

180.6

168.6 155.9 142.0

86.7

Burundi ..........................................

182.6

169.0

154.6 140.7 128.6

67.7

Cambodia........................................

105.4

89.4

73.4 58.7 46.6

18.0

Cameroon........................................

150.0

144.5

131.6 118.3 107.5

55.3

Canada ............................................

6.2

5.9

5.6 5.3 5.1

4.2

Cape Verde .....................................

36.0

29.2

24.4 21.0 18.1

9.9

Central African Republic ................

172.1

162.9

148.6 134.3 122.6

65.8

Chad................................................

198.6

189.0

173.9 157.4 141.9

82.7

Channel Islands ..............................

6.5

6.2

5.9 5.7 5.4

4.5

Chile ..............................................

9.7

8.8

7.9 7.1 6.6

4.8

China ..............................................

31.9

29.4

26.1 23.2 20.6

12.3

China, Hong Kong SAR .................

4.8

4.7

4.6 4.4 4.3

3.6

China, Macao SAR .........................

8.5

7.8

7.2 6.6 6.2

4.5

Colombia ........................................

28.3

26.0

22.8 20.7 18.2

12.7

Comoros .........................................

77.2

62.7

50.1 40.2 32.5

14.5

Congo ............................................

109.0

101.6

91.3 80.1 69.0

31.6

Costa Rica.......................................

12.2

11.4

10.7 10.0 9.4

6.8

Côte d'Ivoire ..................................

190.7

183.2

167.7 150.9 136.4

81.2

ABLE

A.19 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Croatia ...........................................

8.1

7.7

7.3 7.0 6.7

5.5

Cuba................................................

7.7

6.5

5.7 5.0 4.7

2.8

Cyprus.............................................

7.0

6.9

6.5 6.2 5.8

4.4

Czech Republic...............................

4.8

4.7 4.6 4.6

4.3

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea .........

65.0

62.4

59.5 55.1 51.0

33.9

Dem. Republic of the Congo ..........

210.7

195.9

182.1 167.0 151.4

83.1

Denmark ........................................

5.9

5.8

5.6 5.4 5.2

4.2

Djibouti...........................................

140.8

125.9

108.9 93.2 79.9

35.5

Dominican Republic .......................

39.1

33.1

28.1 24.2 21.0

11.9

Ecuador ..........................................

29.9

25.7

21.8 18.0 15.3

8.6

Egypt ..............................................

42.0

33.8

27.6 23.3 19.8

10.7

El Salvador ....................................

34.7

29.3

24.7 21.0 18.3

11.1

Equatorial Guinea ..........................

171.8

155.4

139.2 123.4 109.4

55.6

Eritrea ............................................

89.4

76.9

66.8 58.1 51.0

28.3

Estonia ...........................................

10.3

9.8

9.3 8.5 7.9

5.8

Ethiopia...........................................

161.4

145.3

129.4 114.3 100.6

50.0

Fiji...................................................

27.1

24.3

22.4 20.8 19.3

11.2

Finland ...........................................

4.8

4.7

4.6 4.5 4.4

3.5

France .............................................

5.4

5.2

5.0 4.9 4.8

4.1

French Guiana ................................

16.9

15.1

13.3 11.6 10.1

7.6

French Polynesia.............................

11.5

10.5

9.7 9.1 8.4

6.5

Gabon ............................................

96.7

85.6

68.1 54.3 46.0

25.0

Gambia ...........................................

143.1

128.1

112.8 99.4 88.9

56.4

Georgia ..........................................

43.2

41.5

38.8 36.2 33.9

22.8

Germany ........................................

5.5

5.4

5.2 5.1 5.0

4.3

Ghana .............................................

101.0

89.6

77.9 67.4 58.5

30.0

Greece.............................................

8.9

7.8

7.3 6.8 6.3

4.4

Grenada ..........................................

46.9

41.4

36.9 33.0 29.6

13.7

Guadeloupe.....................................

9.5

8.8

8.2 7.6 7.1

4.9

Guam ..............................................

11.7

10.5

9.5 8.5 7.9

6.3

Guatemala ......................................

48.5

39.3

31.4 26.3 22.9

12.7

Guinea.............................................

178.2

155.8

135.7 117.6 101.9

52.3

Guinea-Bissau ................................

211.6

194.8

177.2 160.2 144.5

78.0

Guyana............................................

67.7

57.4

48.9 42.1 36.8

22.8

Haiti ...............................................

82.4

71.5

63.6 61.4 59.2

30.2

Honduras.........................................

46.3

41.6

37.0 32.5 28.7

18.9

Hungary .........................................

8.6

8.5

8.1 7.6 7.1

5.6

Iceland ...........................................

4.1

3.9

3.9 3.7 3.6

2.8

India ...............................................

89.9

78.6

68.6 60.1 53.0

29.7

Indonesia ........................................

41.9

31.8

24.9 20.3 17.1

9.8

Iran (Islamic Republic of)...............

43.6

35.5

29.0 23.9 20.2

10.9

Iraq..................................................

124.1

105.4

68.5 48.3 36.7

15.7

Ireland ............................................

6.7

6.2

5.9 5.6 5.3

4.0

Israel ...............................................

6.1

5.7

5.4 5.2 5.0

4.1

Italy ................................................

6.3

6.1

5.8 5.6 5.3

4.3

ABLE

A.19 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Jamaica ..........................................

18.9

17.2

16.3 15.4 14.6

10.9

Japan ..............................................

4.4

4.2

4.1 4.0 3.9

3.4

Jordan .............................................

26.3

21.8

18.3 15.9 13.9

8.9

Kazakhstan......................................

38.5

28.5

24.8 21.9 19.4

11.2

Kenya .............................................

112.6

104.1

92.7 82.9 75.4

38.2

Kuwait ............................................

10.6

9.9

9.3 8.8 8.3

6.3

Kyrgyzstan......................................

66.2

63.9

59.6 54.9 50.1

31.5

Lao People's Dem. Republic ...........

84.4

67.5

54.0 43.0 34.7

14.8

Latvia..............................................

15.2

13.7

12.4 11.2 10.2

6.6

Lebanon .........................................

30.0

25.9

22.3 19.6 16.9

9.8

Lesotho ..........................................

112.3

98.2

82.7 69.2 60.3

34.2

Liberia ............................................

222.2

205.2

186.4 168.3 151.5

79.1

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya..................

22.9

19.7

17.2 15.4 13.8

9.3

Lithuania ........................................

12.1

11.1

10.4 9.7 9.0

6.2

Luxembourg....................................

6.8

6.6

6.2 5.9 5.6

4.2

Madagascar.....................................

123.2

106.2

91.6 79.6 69.2

33.6

Malawi............................................

154.3

131.8

114.3 100.5 91.1

58.7

Malaysia..........................................

13.0

11.3

10.2 9.2 8.3

6.5

Maldives .........................................

59.3

42.0

32.5 25.5 20.0

10.7

Mali.................................................

219.0

199.7

180.5 162.7 146.2

87.2

Malta ..............................................

8.1

7.6

7.2 6.8 6.4

5.0

Martinique ......................................

8.9

8.3

7.8 7.4 7.0

5.3

Mauritania.......................................

101.6

92.4

84.7 77.5 71.0

47.3

Mauritius ........................................

17.9

16.5

15.1 13.9 12.9

8.8

Mexico............................................

24.7

20.2

16.8 14.2 12.1

7.1

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ............

47.5

42.0

37.3 33.3 29.7

13.3

Moldova .........................................

21.0

19.4

18.7 17.7 16.8

12.6

Mongolia.........................................

61.5

53.8

47.2 41.3 36.6

20.8

Montenegro.....................................

25.9

24.3

22.5 20.8 19.0

12.5

Morocco .........................................

45.6

36.3

29.4 24.4 20.9

10.9

Mozambique ...................................

186.0

163.7

141.5 122.9 108.7

56.2

Myanmar ........................................

109.7

97.2

83.6 72.4 63.2

34.4

Namibia .........................................

82.6

65.6

46.9 34.2 29.3

17.8

Nepal ..............................................

88.2

71.6

57.6 46.0 36.9

15.0

Netherlands ....................................

6.3

5.9

5.7 5.5 5.3

4.5

Netherlands Antilles .......................

16.9

16.8

14.7 13.2 11.9

8.0

New Caledonia ...............................

9.5

8.7

7.9 7.2 6.7

5.4

New Zealand ..................................

6.9

6.4

5.9 5.5 5.1

3.6

Nicaragua .......................................

32.1

25.7

21.7 19.0 16.7

13.1

Niger ..............................................

212.9

188.0

169.7 153.0 137.8

83.1

Nigeria ...........................................

198.1

187.5

172.0 155.2 139.5

75.0

Norway ...........................................

4.9

4.4

4.3 4.2 4.0

3.2

Occupied Palestinian Territory .......

24.4

20.2

17.4 15.1 13.2

8.8

Oman ..............................................

17.3

13.8

11.7 10.8 10.0

7.3

Pakistan...........................................

108.5

95.2

83.7 74.0 65.8

35.5

ABLE

A.19 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Panama ...........................................

26.9

23.8

20.8 18.2 15.9

9.2

Papua New Guinea..........................

90.5

84.0

76.2 69.0 62.6

35.9

Paraguay .........................................

42.5

38.3

34.4 31.0 27.9

18.1

Peru.................................................

40.5

28.8

25.5 22.7 20.3

12.7

Philippines .....................................

33.4

27.2

22.4 19.3 16.6

9.6

Poland .............................................

8.4

8.0

7.5 7.1 6.6

5.4

Portugal...........................................

7.3

6.6

6.2 6.0 5.8

4.9

Puerto Rico ....................................

9.7

8.7

7.9 7.3 7.0

5.6

Qatar ..............................................

11.8

10.2

9.5 8.9 8.3

6.5

Republic of Korea ..........................

5.4

4.8

4.8 4.8 4.7

4.2

Réunion ..........................................

17.1

15.1

13.6 12.3 11.1

8.0

Romania .........................................

20.3

17.9

15.6 13.8 12.2

7.9

Russian Federation..........................

21.7

20.9

19.7 18.3 17.1

12.3

Rwanda ...........................................

191.3

187.8

175.2 159.8 144.8

79.8

Saint Lucia .....................................

19.1

16.1

14.1 12.5 11.2

7.9

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines...

32.0

27.5

23.6 20.8 18.6

11.1

Samoa ............................................

31.1

26.6

23.0 20.1 17.8

10.7

São Tomé and Príncipe ..................

102.2

94.6

87.6 80.1 72.4

45.4

Saudi Arabia ...................................

26.4

21.8

18.8 16.3 14.2

9.0

Senegal ...........................................

123.6

115.0

107.5 100.5 93.7

66.4

Serbia..............................................

15.4

13.9

12.3 11.3 10.3

7.3

Sierra Leone....................................

289.9

278.1

265.7 251.3 235.1

153.5

Singapore .......................................

4.0

4.1

4.2 4.2 4.1

3.8

Slovakia ..........................................

8.7

8.4

7.8 7.3 6.8

5.5

Slovenia ..........................................

7.1

6.4

5.9 5.7 5.5

4.7

Solomon Islands .............................

81.1

72.5

64.5 57.2 50.7

23.7

Somalia ..........................................

212.8

192.8

174.7 159.0 143.6

77.2

South Africa....................................

76.0

66.0

57.0 49.7 44.4

26.4

Spain ..............................................

5.6

5.3

5.1 4.9 4.7

4.0

Sri Lanka ........................................

14.1

12.9

12.3 11.7 11.1

8.1

Sudan .............................................

118.3

104.5

91.3 79.5 69.1

34.3

Suriname.........................................

39.2

34.9

31.3 28.3 25.9

15.0

Swaziland .......................................

135.4

113.6

87.0 66.6 56.5

29.5

Sweden ...........................................

4.0

3.8 3.8 3.7

3.0

Switzerland ....................................

5.4

5.1

5.0 4.8 4.7

3.9

Syrian Arab Republic......................

21.5

18.3

15.9 13.9 12.1

8.4

Tajikistan ........................................

82.3

78.1

72.6 67.6 62.9

40.2

TFYR Macedonia ...........................

18.9

16.9

15.0 13.5 12.1

8.1

Thailand..........................................

17.0

15.1

13.9 12.6 11.6

7.6

Timor-Leste ....................................

110.1

91.5

75.3 60.8 48.6

18.1

Togo................................................

136.3

126.3

114.0 101.5 91.1

55.5

Tonga .............................................

24.6

21.9

19.6 17.7 16.0

10.5

Trinidad and Tobago ......................

20.5

17.6

13.9 11.3 10.1

6.9

Tunisia ...........................................

25.4

22.2

19.3 16.9 14.6

9.2

Turkey.............................................

36.4

31.6

27.2 23.6 20.1

10.7

ABLE

A.19 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)

Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Turkmenistan ..................................

99.3

94.6

86.5 77.4 69.5

42.3

Uganda............................................

140.1

127.4

111.6 96.3 84.0

41.4

Ukraine ..........................................

16.8

15.8

14.7 13.7 12.9

9.5

United Arab Emirates .....................

10.0

9.0

8.4 7.8 7.3

5.4

United Kingdom .............................

6.4

6.0

5.7 5.4 5.2

3.9

United Republic of Tanzania .........

131.6

118.4

104.1 90.3 79.0

39.5

United States of America ................

8.4

7.8

7.4 7.0 6.6

5.1

United States Virgin Islands ...........

10.6

9.6

8.9 8.3 7.6

5.4

Uruguay .........................................

17.6

16.2

14.2 12.5 11.0

5.7

Uzbekistan ......................................

69.7

66.0

61.1 56.9 53.2

34.8

Vanuatu ..........................................

42.1

34.0

27.7 22.6 19.4

10.4

Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) .....

24.2

21.8

19.6 17.6 15.8

9.5

Viet Nam.........................................

27.1

23.3

20.3 17.9 15.8

10.1

Western Sahara ...............................

70.1

56.3

44.8 36.1 29.4

13.4

Yemen ............................................

95.4

78.8

63.9 51.0 40.8

16.5

Zambia............................................

172.2

157.0

136.1 115.7 101.5

51.4

Zimbabwe .......................................

104.1

93.9

79.4 65.8 56.7

29.9

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2007 are included.

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

ABLE

A.20.

HIV

PREVALENCE IN THE COUNTRIES MOST AFFECTED BY THE

HIV/AIDS

EPIDEMIC

2005

AND

2025

Prevalence

(percentage)

Country 2005

2025

Change between 2005

and 2025

Assumed coverage of

adult treatment in 2015

Africa

1. Angola........................................... 3.6 3.2

-0.4

2. Benin .............................................

1.8 1.0

-0.7

3. Botswana

......................................

24.4 16.3

-8.1

4. Burkina

Faso

................................ 2.0 1.6

-0.5

5. Burundi.......................................... 3.2 2.7

-0.5

6. Cameroon

..................................... 5.5 4.6

-0.9

7. Central

African

Republic ..............

10.7

9.6

-1.2

8. Chad

.............................................

3.5 2.9

-0.6

9. Congo ............................................ 5.3 4.4

-0.9

10. Côte

d'Ivoire.................................. 7.0 6.2

-0.8

11. Dem. Republic of the Congo ........

3.2

2.8

-0.4

12. Djibouti

........................................

3.1 2.7

-0.5

13. Equatorial

Guinea.......................... 3.2 2.8

-0.4

14. Eritrea............................................

2.4 2.1

-0.3

15. Ethiopia

........................................ 2.0 1.6

-0.3

16. Gabon ............................................ 7.9 6.8

-1.1

17. Gambia

.........................................

2.5 2.1

-0.3

18. Ghana ............................................

2.3 2.0

-0.3

19. Guinea

..........................................

1.5 1.1

-0.4

20. Guinea-Bissau ...............................

3.7 3.1

-0.6

21. Kenya ............................................

6.2 4.8

-1.4

22. Lesotho..........................................

23.1 20.0

-3.2

23. Liberia ........................................... 3.3 3.1

-0.3

24. Madagascar

.................................. 0.5 1.0

0.5

25. Malawi

.........................................

14.1 12.6

-1.5

26. Mali

..............................................

1.7

1.5

-0.3

27. Mozambique

.................................

16.3 13.7

-2.7

28. Namibia.........................................

19.7 17.2

-2.5

29. Niger .............................................

1.1 0.9

-0.2

30. Nigeria...........................................

3.9 3.2

-0.7

31. Rwanda

......................................... 3.5 2.0

-1.6

32. Sierra

Leone

................................. 1.6 1.3

-0.3

33. South

Africa

................................. 18.9 13.9

-5.0

34. Sudan.............................................

1.6 1.4

-0.2

35. Swaziland ......................................

33.8 27.9

-5.9

36. Togo

............................................. 3.2 2.7

-0.5

37. Uganda

.........................................

6.6 5.7

-0.9

38. United Republic of Tanzania.........

6.5

5.5

-1.0

39. Zambia

.........................................

16.9 15.0

-1.9

40. Zimbabwe

.....................................

20.0 13.5

-6.5

ABLE

A.20 (

continued

)

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

Prevalence

(percentage)

Country 2005

2025

Change between 2005

and 2025

Assumed coverage of

adult treatment in 2015

Asia

1. Cambodia

.....................................

1.7 0.4

-1.3

2. China .............................................

0.1 0.0

0.0

3. India ..............................................

0.9 0.7

-0.2

4. Myanmar .......................................

1.3 0.9

-0.3

5. Thailand

.......................................

1.3 1.0

-0.3

Europe

1. Estonia...........................................

1.3 1.1

-0.2

2. Moldova ........................................ 1.1 1.1

0.0

3. Russian

Federation

....................... 1.1 1.4

0.3

4. Ukraine..........................................

1.4 1.2

-0.3

Latin America and the Caribbean

1. Bahamas ........................................

2.7 2.2

-0.5

2. Barbados

.......................................

1.4 1.0

-0.4

100

3. Belize

...........................................

2.4 3.1

0.7

4. Brazil

............................................

0.4 0.4

0.0

100

5. Dominican

Republic

..................... 1.1 0.8

-0.3

6. Guyana

.........................................

2.4 1.8

-0.6

7. Haiti...............................................

3.8

3.1

-0.7

8. Honduras

...................................... 1.5 1.4

-0.1

9. Jamaica..........................................

1.5 1.2

-0.3

10. Suriname

......................................

2.0 1.5

-0.5

11. Trinidad and Tobago ..................... 2.6 1.5

-1.0

Northern America

United States of America .............

0.5

0.6

0.1

Oceania

Papua New Guinea ........................

1.8 1.6

-0.2

Source:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2007).

World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. New York: United Nations.

OTE

: Prevalence relates to the population aged 15-49.